Ice Sheet Configuration Research Articles

Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c

Abstract. Studying the response of the Antarctic ice sheets during periods when climate conditions were similar to the present can provide important insights into current observed changes and help identify natural drivers of ice sheet retreat. In this context, the marine isotope substage 11c (MIS11c) interglacial offers a suitable scenario, given that during its later portion orbital parameters were close to our current interglacial. Ice core data indicate that warmer-than-present temperatures lasted for longer than during other interglacials. However, the response of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level rise remain unclear. We explore the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets during this period using a numerical ice sheet model forced by MIS11c climate conditions derived from climate model outputs scaled by three glaciological and one sedimentary proxy records of ice volume. Our results indicate that the East and West Antarctic ice sheets contributed 4.0–8.2 m to the MIS11c sea level rise. In the case of a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, which is the most probable scenario according to far-field sea level reconstructions, the range is reduced to 6.7–8.2 m independently of the choices of external sea level forcing and millennial-scale climate variability. Within this latter range, the main source of uncertainty arises from the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to a choice of initial ice sheet configuration. We found that the warmer regional climate signal captured by Antarctic ice cores during peak MIS11c is crucial to reproduce the contribution expected from Antarctica during the recorded global sea level highstand. This climate signal translates to a modest threshold of 0.4 ∘C oceanic warming at intermediate depths, which leads to a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet if sustained for at least 4000 years.

Impact of mid-glacial ice sheets on deep ocean circulation and global climate

Abstract. This study explores the effect of southward expansion of Northern Hemisphere (American) mid-glacial ice sheets on the global climate and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as well as the processes by which the ice sheets modify the AMOC. For this purpose, simulations of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 (36 ka) and 5a (80 ka) are performed with an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. In the MIS3 and MIS5a simulations, the global average temperature decreases by 5.0 and 2.2 ∘C, respectively, compared with the preindustrial climate simulation. The AMOC weakens by 3 % in MIS3, whereas it strengthens by 16 % in MIS5a, both of which are consistent with an estimate based on 231Pa ∕ 230Th. Sensitivity experiments extracting the effect of the southward expansion of glacial ice sheets from MIS5a to MIS3 show a global cooling of 1.1 ∘C, contributing to about 40 % of the total surface cooling from MIS5a to MIS3. These experiments also demonstrate that the ice sheet expansion leads to a surface cooling of 2 ∘C over the Southern Ocean as a result of colder North Atlantic Deep Water. We find that the southward expansion of the mid-glacial ice sheet exerts a small impact on the AMOC. Partially coupled experiments reveal that the global surface cooling by the glacial ice sheet tends to reduce the AMOC by increasing the sea ice at both poles and, hence, compensates for the strengthening effect of the enhanced surface wind over the North Atlantic. Our results show that the total effect of glacial ice sheets on the AMOC is determined by two competing effects: surface wind and surface cooling. The relative strength of surface wind and surface cooling effects depends on the ice sheet configuration, and the strength of the surface cooling can be comparable to that of surface wind when changes in the extent of ice sheet are prominent.

Scratching the Surface: A Marine Sediment Provenance Record From the Continental Slope of Central Wilkes Land, East Antarctica

AbstractThe geology of Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, is masked by kilometers of ice and remains largely unexplored. Defining the sediment provenance adjacent to this hidden region is important for distinguishing the proximal subglacial basement terranes and refining the dynamic regional glaciological history. This study presents a detrital sediment provenance record spanning c. 23.5 ka from the continental slope of central Wilkes Land. Sediment provenance was characterized using U‐Pb geochronology and trace element geochemistry from detrital zircon, titanite and apatite, and Pb isotopic signatures from detrital feldspar. These data were compared with new feldspar Pb‐isotopic signatures and existing U‐Pb zircon data sets from rare nearby coastal outcrop. A principally igneous source was revealed with dominant age populations between c. 1,360‐1,100 Ma and c. 1,620‐1,490 Ma, characteristic of rocks of the proximal Wilkes and Banzare provinces, respectively. Minor detritus was additionally sourced from the proximal Nuyina Province (c. 1,450‐1,390 Ma). Temporal variation in the climate and ice sheet configuration are likely responsible for subtle downcore changes observed in detrital sediment provenance. High sedimentation rates during the glacial period suggest reworking of continental shelf sediments and downslope transport in debris flows during ice sheet advance. Glacial meltwater fluxes fed largely by the Totten Glacier were responsible for supplying detritus during deglaciation. During interglacials, detritus was derived from a broad coastal region and delivered to the slope via multiple glacial outlets. These results present the first substantial offshore evidence to support recent interpretations that the subglacial crust of central Wilkes Land has a dominantly Mesoproterozoic history.

The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

More than half of Earth's freshwater resources are held by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which thus represents by far the largest potential source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions1. Its long-term stability determines the fate of our coastal cities and cultural heritage. Feedbacks between ice, atmosphere, ocean, and the solid Earth give rise to potential nonlinearities in its response to temperature changes. So far, we are lacking a comprehensive stability analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet for different amounts of global warming. Here we show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits a multitude of temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss is irreversible. Consistent with palaeodata2 we find, using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model3-5, that at global warming levels around 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, West Antarctica is committed to long-term partial collapse owing to the marine ice-sheet instability. Between 6 and 9 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, the loss of more than 70 per cent of the present-day ice volume is triggered, mainly caused by the surface elevation feedback. At more than 10 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, Antarctica is committed to become virtually ice-free. The ice sheet's temperature sensitivity is 1.3 metres of sea-level equivalent per degree of warming up to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, almost doubling to 2.4 metres per degree of warming between 2 and 6 degrees and increasing to about 10 metres per degree of warming between 6 and 9 degrees. Each of these thresholds gives rise to hysteresis behaviour: that is, the currently observed ice-sheet configuration is not regained even if temperatures are reversed to present-day levels. In particular, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet does not regrow to its modern extent until temperatures are at least one degree Celsius lower than pre-industrial levels. Our results show that if the Paris Agreement is not met, Antarctica's long-term sea-level contribution will dramatically increase and exceed that of all other sources.

The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model

Abstract. Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet constitutes the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Ocean-driven melting underneath the floating ice shelves and subsequent acceleration of the inland ice streams are the major reasons for currently observed mass loss from Antarctica and are expected to become more important in the future. Here we show that for projections of future mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, it is essential (1) to better constrain the sensitivity of sub-shelf melt rates to ocean warming and (2) to include the historic trajectory of the ice sheet. In particular, we find that while the ice sheet response in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model is comparable to the median response of models in three Antarctic Ice Sheet Intercomparison projects – initMIP, LARMIP-2 and ISMIP6 – conducted with a range of ice sheet models, the projected 21st century sea level contribution differs significantly depending on these two factors. For the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, this leads to projected ice loss ranging from 1.4 to 4.0 cm of sea level equivalent in simulations in which ISMIP6 ocean forcing drives the PICO ocean box model where parameter tuning leads to a comparably low sub-shelf melt sensitivity and in which no surface forcing is applied. This is opposed to a likely range of 9.1 to 35.8 cm using the exact same initial setup, but emulated from the LARMIP-2 experiments with a higher melt sensitivity, even though both projects use forcing from climate models and melt rates are calibrated with previous oceanographic studies. Furthermore, using two initial states, one with a previous historic simulation from 1850 to 2014 and one starting from a steady state, we show that while differences between the ice sheet configurations in 2015 seem marginal at first sight, the historic simulation increases the susceptibility of the ice sheet to ocean warming, thereby increasing mass loss from 2015 to 2100 by 5 % to 50 %. Hindcasting past ice sheet changes with numerical models would thus provide valuable tools to better constrain projections. Our results emphasize that the uncertainty that arises from the forcing is of the same order of magnitude as the ice dynamic response for future sea level projections.

Warm fjords and vegetated landscapes in early Pliocene East Antarctica

The response of the Antarctic ice sheets to future warming is uncertain. The IPCC are predicting minimal melt from Antarctica while others suggest increased meltwater contributions are possible. The Pliocene period (5.333 Ma to 2.58 Ma) may provide insights into future ice sheet response, because atmospheric CO2 concentrations were similar to today (350-450 ppmv) and the earth surface was between 2°C and 4°C warmer than the preindustrial conditions. Geological records indicate that Antarctica's ice sheets were smaller and more dynamic at this time and many sea-level estimates require meltwater input from the Greenland, West (WAIS) and East Antarctic Ice sheets (EAIS). However, only a few records exist proximal to the Antarctic ice sheet which allow for reconstruction of the Pliocene climate state. We present a multiproxy climate reconstruction from a sedimentary succession that was deposited in an ancient fjord within the Transantarctic Mountains, covering discrete intervals between the early Pliocene and the late Pleistocene. In contrast to modern frigid conditions, our records indicate sea surface temperatures of about 5.6°C at c. 4.1 Ma, the presence of a plant community at the fjord margins and evidence of soil formation. Simulations of potential vegetation cover in the Pliocene indicate our reconstruction is most compatible with a complete collapse of the WAIS and a large scale retreat of the EAIS from the subglacial basins with atmospheric CO2 levels of less than 450 ppmv. Our study indicates that under present day atmospheric CO2 conditions, in the early Pliocene, the Antarctic ice sheets retreated significantly. Understanding the mechanisms driving this large-scale ice sheet retreat would enable us to assess whether current atmospheric CO2 concentrations will lead to the same ice sheet configuration once the Earth system has come to a new equilibrium state.

Grounding line stability in a regime of low driving and basal stresses

AbstractThe dynamics of a marine ice sheet's grounding lines determine the rate of ice discharge from the grounded part of ice sheet into surrounding oceans. In many locations in West Antarctica ice flows into ice shelves through ice streams experiencing low driving stress. However, existing simple theories of marine ice sheets are developed under the assumption of high basal and driving stress. Here we analyze the grounding line behavior of marine ice streams experiencing low basal shear and driving stress. We find that in this regime, the ice flux at the grounding line is a complex function of the geometry of the ice-stream bed, net accumulation rate and gradient of the net accumulation rate. Our analysis shows that the stability of distinct steady states is determined by the same parameters, suggesting a more complex (in)stability criterion than what is commonly referred to within the context of the ‘marine ice-sheet instability hypothesis’. We also determine characteristic timescales (e-folding time) of ice-sheet configurations perturbed from their steady states. These timescales can be used to determine whether particular configurations can be considered in isolation from other components of the climate system or whether their effects and feedbacks between the ice sheet and the rest of the climate system have to be taken into account.

The configuration of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the Quaternary

Our understanding of how global climatic changes are translated into ice-sheet fluctuations and sea-level change is currently limited by a lack of knowledge of the configuration of ice sheets prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Here, we compile a synthesis of empirical data and numerical modelling results related to pre-LGM ice sheets to produce new hypotheses regarding their extent in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) at 17 time-slices that span the Quaternary. Our reconstructions illustrate pronounced ice-sheet asymmetry within the last glacial cycle and significant variations in ice-marginal positions between older glacial cycles. We find support for a significant reduction in the extent of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during MIS 3, implying that global sea levels may have been 30–40 m higher than most previous estimates. Our ice-sheet reconstructions illustrate the current state-of-the-art knowledge of pre-LGM ice sheets and provide a conceptual framework to interpret NH landscape evolution.

Past and future dynamics of the Brunt Ice Shelf from seabed bathymetry and ice shelf geometry

Abstract. The recent rapid growth of rifts in the Brunt Ice Shelf appears to signal the onset of its largest calving event since records began in 1915. The aim of this study is to determine whether this calving event will lead to a new steady state in which the Brunt Ice Shelf remains in contact with the bed, or an unpinning from the bed, which could predispose it to accelerated flow or possible break-up. We use a range of geophysical data to reconstruct the sea-floor bathymetry and ice shelf geometry, to examine past ice sheet configurations in the Brunt Basin, and to define the present-day geometry of the contact between the Brunt Ice Shelf and the bed. Results show that during past ice advances grounded ice streams likely converged in the Brunt Basin from the south and east. As the ice retreated, it was likely pinned on at least three former grounding lines marked by topographic highs, and transverse ridges on the flanks of the basin. These may have subsequently formed pinning points for developing ice shelves. The ice shelf geometry and bathymetry measurements show that the base of the Brunt Ice Shelf now only makes contact with one of these topographic highs. This contact is limited to an area of less than 1.3 to 3 km2 and results in a compressive regime that helps to maintain the ice shelf's integrity. The maximum overlap between ice shelf draft and the bathymetric high is 2–25 m and is contingent on the presence of incorporated iceberg keels, which protrude beneath the base of the ice shelf. The future of the ice shelf depends on whether the expected calving event causes full or partial loss of contact with the bed and whether the subsequent response causes re-grounding within a predictable period or a loss of structural integrity resulting from properties inherited at the grounding line.

Was the Laurentide Ice Sheet significantly reduced during Marine Isotope Stage 3?

Accurately reconstructing the paleogeography of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3; ca. 57,000 to ca. 29,000 yr B.P.) is critical for understanding glacial growth toward the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), refining sea-level histories, and studying the Earth system response to rapid climate change events. Here, we present a geochronological data set useful for testing hypotheses of global sea level and refining ice sheet configuration through this interval. Data (n = 735) span the entire MIS 3 interval and consist of 14C determinations (n = 651), cosmogenic exposure ages (n = 52), and optically stimulated luminescence dates (n = 32). On that basis, we hypothesize that the central region of the LIS underwent a dramatic reduction in ice from ca. 52 to 40 ka. Key to this hypothesis are geological records at sites in the Hudson Bay Lowlands (east central Canada) that suggest a marine incursion and development of terrestrial landscapes. We show that these landscapes are consistent with recently published glacial isostatic adjustment predictions that include widespread deglaciation of the eastern (Labrador) sector of the LIS with ice buildup over the western (Keewatin) sector at 42 ka. Ice growth from this minimum toward the LGM is likely to have been rapid. The agreement between this data set and modeling predictions prompts the reassessment of key Late Pleistocene records, including Heinrich events, loess deposition in the continental United States, and sedimentological records from the Gulf of Mexico.

Deglacial to postglacial history of Nares Strait, Northwest Greenland: a marine perspective from Kane Basin

Abstract. A radiocarbon-dated marine sediment core retrieved in Kane Basin, central Nares Strait, was analysed to constrain the timing of the postglacial opening of this Arctic gateway and its Holocene evolution. This study is based on a set of sedimentological and geochemical proxies of changing sedimentary processes and sources that provide new insight into the evolution of ice sheet configuration in Nares Strait. Proglacial marine sedimentation at the core site initiated ca. 9.0 cal ka BP following the retreat of grounded ice. Varying contributions of sand and clasts suggest unstable sea ice conditions and glacial activity, which subsisted until ca. 7.5 cal ka BP under the combined influence of warm atmospheric temperatures and proglacial cooling induced by the nearby Innuitian (IIS) and Greenland (GIS) ice sheets. An interval rich in ice-rafted debris (IRD) is interpreted as the collapse of the ice saddle in Kennedy Channel ca. 8.3 cal ka BP that marks the complete opening of Nares Strait and the initial connection between the Lincoln Sea and northernmost Baffin Bay. Delivery of sediment by icebergs was strengthened between ca. 8.3 and ca. 7.5 cal ka BP following the collapse of the buttress of glacial ice in Kennedy Channel that triggered the acceleration of GIS and IIS fluxes toward Nares Strait. The destabilisation in glacial ice eventually led to the rapid retreat of the GIS in eastern Kane Basin at about 8.1 cal ka BP as evidenced by a noticeable change in sediment geochemistry in our core. The gradual decrease in carbonate inputs to Kane Basin between ∼8.1 and ∼4.1 cal ka BP reflects the late deglaciation of Washington Land. The shoaling of Kane Basin can be observed in our record by the increased winnowing of lighter particles as the glacio-isostatic rebound brought the seabed closer to subsurface currents. Reduced iceberg delivery from 7.5 to 1.9 cal ka BP inferred by our dataset may be linked to the retreat of the bordering ice sheets on land that decreased their number of marine termini.

Marine ice sheet dynamics: the impacts of ice-shelf buttressing

Marine ice sheets are continent-scale glacial masses that lie partially submerged in the ocean, as applies to significant regions of Antarctica and Greenland. Such ice sheets have the potential to destabilise under a buoyancy-driven instability mechanism, with considerable implications for future sea level. This paper and its companion present a theoretical analysis of marine ice sheet dynamics under the effect of a potentially dominant control of the buttressing force generated by lateral stresses on the downstream floating component of the ice sheet (the ice shelf). The analysis reveals critical conditions under which ice-shelf buttressing suppresses the buoyancy-driven collapse of an ice sheet and elucidates the implications of lateral stresses on grounding-line control and overall ice-sheet structure. Integrations of a suitably simplified quasi-two-dimensional model are conducted, yielding analytical results that provide a quick assessment of steady-state balances for a given ice-sheet configuration. An analytical balance equation describing the spectrum of marine ice sheet flow regimes spanning zero to strong ice-shelf buttressing is developed. It is determined that the dynamics across this spectrum exhibits markedly different flow regimes and structural characteristics. For sufficient buttressing, the grounding line occurs near to where a lateral-drag controlled section of the ice shelf meets the bedrock, implying an independent control of the grounding line by the ice shelf. The role of basal stresses is relegated to controlling only the thickness of the ice sheet upstream of the grounding line, with no significant control of the grounding line itself. It is further demonstrated that lateral stresses are responsible for inducing additional secondary contacts between the ice shelf and the bedrock downstream of the grounding line, resulting in a rich variety of additional steady states. These inducements generate a further stabilising mechanism that can fully suppress grounding-line retreat and eliminate otherwise irreparable hysteresis effects. The results provide a conceptual framework for numerical and observational interpretation of marine ice sheet dynamics, and clarifies the manner in which ice shelves can control grounding-line positions independently. It is thus indicated that a full resolution of the fine details of the flow of ice shelves and the processes controlling their erosion and disintegration is necessary for the confident forecasting of possible ice-sheet collapse over the course of the next few centuries.

Two AMOC States in Response to Decreasing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in the Coupled Climate Model MPI-ESM

This study analyzes the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to different CO2 concentrations and two ice sheet configurations in simulations with the coupled climate model MPI-ESM. With preindustrial (PI) ice sheets, there are two different AMOC states within the studied CO2 range: one state with a strong and deep upper overturning cell at high CO2 concentrations and one state with a weak and shallow upper cell at low CO2 concentrations. Changes in AMOC variability with decreasing CO2 indicate two stability thresholds. The strong state is stable above the first threshold near 217 ppm, and the weak state is stable below the second threshold near 190 ppm. Between the two thresholds, both states are marginally unstable, and the AMOC oscillates between them on millennial time scales. The weak AMOC state is stable when Antarctic Bottom Water becomes dense and salty enough to replace North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) in the deep North Atlantic and when the density gain over the North Atlantic becomes too weak to sustain continuous NADW formation. With Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice sheets, the density gain over the North Atlantic and the northward salt transport are enhanced with respect to the PI ice sheet case. This enables active NADW formation and a strong AMOC for the entire range of studied CO2 concentrations. The AMOC variability indicates that the simulated AMOC is far away from a stability threshold with LGM ice sheets. The nonlinear relationship among AMOC, CO2, and prescribed ice sheets provides an explanation for the large intermodel spread of AMOC states found in previous coupled LGM simulations.

A new approach for simulating the paleo-evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets

Abstract. Offline forcing methods for ice-sheet models often make use of an index approach in which temperature anomalies relative to the present are calculated by combining a simulated glacial–interglacial climatic anomaly field, interpolated through an index derived from the Greenland ice-core temperature reconstruction, with present-day climatologies. An important drawback of this approach is that it clearly misrepresents climate variability at millennial timescales. The reason for this is that the spatial glacial–interglacial anomaly field used is associated with orbital climatic variations, while it is scaled following the characteristic time evolution of the index, which includes orbital and millennial-scale climate variability. The spatial patterns of orbital and millennial variability are clearly not the same, as indicated by a wealth of models and data. As a result, this method can be expected to lead to a misrepresentation of climate variability and thus of the past evolution of Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets. Here we illustrate the problems derived from this approach and propose a new offline climate forcing method that attempts to better represent the characteristic pattern of millennial-scale climate variability by including an additional spatial anomaly field associated with this timescale. To this end, three different synthetic transient forcing climatologies are developed for the past 120 kyr following a perturbative approach and are applied to an ice-sheet model. The impact of the climatologies on the paleo-evolution of the NH ice sheets is evaluated. The first method follows the usual index approach in which temperature anomalies relative to the present are calculated by combining a simulated glacial–interglacial climatic anomaly field, interpolated through an index derived from ice-core data, with present-day climatologies. In the second approach the representation of millennial-scale climate variability is improved by incorporating a simulated stadial–interstadial anomaly field. The third is a refinement of the second one in which the amplitudes of both orbital and millennial-scale variations are tuned to provide perfect agreement with a recently published absolute temperature reconstruction over Greenland. The comparison of the three climate forcing methods highlights the tendency of the usual index approach to overestimate the temperature variability over North America and Eurasia at millennial timescales. This leads to a relatively high NH ice-volume variability on these timescales. Through enhanced ablation, this results in too low an ice volume throughout the last glacial period (LGP), below or at the lower end of the uncertainty range of estimations. Improving the representation of millennial-scale variability alone yields an important increase in ice volume in all NH ice sheets but especially in the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet (FIS). Optimizing the amplitude of the temperature anomalies to match the Greenland reconstruction results in a further increase in the simulated ice-sheet volume throughout the LGP. Our new method provides a more realistic representation of orbital and millennial-scale climate variability and improves the transient forcing of ice sheets during the LGP. Interestingly, our new approach underestimates ice-volume variations on millennial timescales as indicated by sea-level records. This suggests that either the origin of the latter is not the NH or that processes not represented in our study, notably variations in oceanic conditions, need to be invoked to explain millennial-scale ice-volume fluctuations. We finally provide here both our derived climate evolution of the LGP using the three methods as well as the resulting ice-sheet configurations. These could be of interest for future studies dealing with the atmospheric or/and oceanic consequences of transient ice-sheet evolution throughout the LGP and as a source of climate input to other ice-sheet models.

Response of the carbon cycle in an intermediate complexity model to the different climate configurations of the last nine interglacials

Abstract. Atmospheric CO2 levels during interglacials prior to the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE, ∼ 430 ka BP) were around 40 ppm lower than after the MBE. The reasons for this difference remain unclear. A recent hypothesis proposed that changes in oceanic circulation, in response to different external forcings before and after the MBE, might have increased the ocean carbon storage in pre-MBE interglacials, thus lowering atmospheric CO2. Nevertheless, no quantitative estimate of this hypothesis has been produced up to now. Here we use an intermediate complexity model including the carbon cycle to evaluate the response of the carbon reservoirs in the atmosphere, ocean and land in response to the changes of orbital forcings, ice sheet configurations and atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last nine interglacials. We show that the ocean takes up more carbon during pre-MBE interglacials in agreement with data, but the impact on atmospheric CO2 is limited to a few parts per million. Terrestrial biosphere is simulated to be less developed in pre-MBE interglacials, which reduces the storage of carbon on land and increases atmospheric CO2. Accounting for different simulated ice sheet extents modifies the vegetation cover and temperature, and thus the carbon reservoir distribution. Overall, atmospheric CO2 levels are lower during these pre-MBE simulated interglacials including all these effects, but the magnitude is still far too small. These results suggest a possible misrepresentation of some key processes in the model, such as the magnitude of ocean circulation changes, or the lack of crucial mechanisms or internal feedbacks, such as those related to permafrost, to fully account for the lower atmospheric CO2 concentrations during pre-MBE interglacials.

Laurentide ice sheet meltwater routing along the Iro-Mohawk River, eastern New York, USA

The rerouting of meltwater as the configuration of ice sheets evolved during the last deglaciation is thought to have led to some of the most significant perturbations to the climate system in the late Quaternary. However, the complex pattern of ice sheet meltwater drainage off the continents, and the timing of rerouting events, remains to be fully resolved. As the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) retreated north of the Adirondack Uplands of northeastern New York State during the last deglaciation, a large proglacial lake, Lake Iroquois, found a lower outlet that resulted in a significant flood event. This meltwater rerouting event, from outflow via the Iro-Mohawk River valley (southern Adirondack Mountains) to the spillway at Covey Hill (northeastern Adirondack Mountains), is hypothesized to have taken place ~13.2ka and disturbed meridional circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean. However, the timing of the rerouting event is not certain because the event has not been directly dated. With improving the history of Lake Iroquois drainage in mind, we obtained cosmogenic 10Be exposure ages on a strath terrace on Moss Island, along the Iro-Mohawk River spillway. We hypothesize that Moss Island's strath terrace became abandoned during the rerouting event. Six 10Be ages from the strath surface average 14.8±1.3ka, which predates the previously published bracketing radiocarbon ages of ~13.2ka. Several possibilities for the discrepancy exist: (1) the 10Be age accurately represents the timing of a decrease in discharge through the Iro-Mohawk River spillway; (2) the age is influenced by inheritance. The 10Be ages from glacially sculpted surfaces on Moss Island above the strath terrace predate the deglaciation of the site by 5 to 35ky; and (3) the abandonment of the Moss Island strath terrace relates to knickpoint migration and not the final abandonment of the Iro-Mohawk River as the Lake Iroquois spillway. Further study and application of cosmogenic 10Be exposure dating in the region may lead to tighter chronologic constraints of meltwater history of the LIS.

Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

Abstract. Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term continuous projections of climate evolution based on the output from GCMs, via the use of a statistical emulator. The emulator is calibrated using ensembles of GCM simulations, which have varying orbital configurations and atmospheric CO2 concentrations and enables a variety of investigations of long-term climate change to be conducted, which would not be possible with other modelling techniques on the same temporal and spatial scales. To illustrate the potential applications, we apply the emulator to the late Pliocene (by modelling surface air temperature – SAT), comparing its results with palaeo-proxy data for a number of global sites, and to the next 200 kyr (thousand years) (by modelling SAT and precipitation). A range of CO2 scenarios are prescribed for each period. During the late Pliocene, we find that emulated SAT varies on an approximately precessional timescale, with evidence of increased obliquity response at times. A comparison of atmospheric CO2 concentration for this period, estimated using the proxy sea surface temperature (SST) data from different sites and emulator results, finds that relatively similar CO2 concentrations are estimated based on sites at lower latitudes, whereas higher-latitude sites show larger discrepancies. In our second illustrative application, spanning the next 200 kyr into the future, we find that SAT oscillations appear to be primarily influenced by obliquity for the first ∼ 120 kyr, whilst eccentricity is relatively low, after which precession plays a more dominant role. Conversely, variations in precipitation over the entire period demonstrate a strong precessional signal. Overall, we find that the emulator provides a useful and powerful tool for rapidly simulating the long-term evolution of climate, both past and future, due to its relatively high spatial resolution and relatively low computational cost. However, there are uncertainties associated with the approach used, including the inability of the emulator to capture deviations from a quasi-stationary response to the forcing, such as transient adjustments of the deep-ocean temperature and circulation, in addition to its limited range of fixed ice sheet configurations and its requirement for prescribed atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Sensitivity of Last Interglacial sea-level high stands to ice sheet configuration during Marine Isotope Stage 6

Estimates of peak global mean sea level (GMSL) during the Last Interglacial (LIG, ∼129-116 ka) based on geological sea level high-stand markers require a correction for the contaminating influence of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). This correction is obtained by calculating the viscoelastic response of the Earth to changes in the ice and ocean load prior to and following the LIG. While ice retreat over the last deglaciation is relatively well constrained, changes in ice cover prior to the LIG are more uncertain. We investigate the sensitivity of numerical predictions of GIA during the LIG to variations in the geometry of pre-LIG ice cover and the timing of the deglaciation into the LIG, with a particular focus on Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6 (∼190-130 ka). We demonstrate that reconstructing the pre-LIG ice history by replicating the last glacial cycle back in time, rather than using ice volume approximations based on oxygen isotope records, can introduce errors in LIG high-stand predictions of ∼5 m at sites on the peripheral bulge of major ice complexes, and up to ∼2 m at far-field sites. We also demonstrate that predictions of LIG sea level are more sensitive to the geographic distribution of ice cover during MIS 6 than previously recognized. Adopting simulations which vary the relative size of Late Pleistocene ice cover over North America and Eurasia can yield a change in predicted high-stand elevations of ∼5 m in both the near and far field of northern hemisphere ice sheets. This far-field sensitivity arises, in part, from the reorientation of Earth's rotation axis during MIS 6, which in turn drives sea-level changes with a distinct geographic signature. In future work we will apply the insights gained here to re-evaluate the observed geographic variability in geological high-stand markers of LIG age and estimates of GMSL based upon them.

Antarctic climate and ice-sheet configuration during the early Pliocene interglacial at 4.23 Ma

Abstract. The geometry of Antarctic ice sheets during warm periods of the geological past is difficult to determine from geological evidence, but is important to know because such reconstructions enable a more complete understanding of how the ice-sheet system responds to changes in climate. Here we investigate how Antarctica evolved under orbital and greenhouse gas conditions representative of an interglacial in the early Pliocene at 4.23 Ma, when Southern Hemisphere insolation reached a maximum. Using offline-coupled climate and ice-sheet models, together with a new synthesis of high-latitude palaeoenvironmental proxy data to define a likely climate envelope, we simulate a range of ice-sheet geometries and calculate their likely contribution to sea level. In addition, we use these simulations to investigate the processes by which the West and East Antarctic ice sheets respond to environmental forcings and the timescales over which these behaviours manifest. We conclude that the Antarctic ice sheet contributed 8.6 ± 2.8 m to global sea level at this time, under an atmospheric CO2 concentration identical to present (400 ppm). Warmer-than-present ocean temperatures led to the collapse of West Antarctica over centuries, whereas higher air temperatures initiated surface melting in parts of East Antarctica that over one to two millennia led to lowering of the ice-sheet surface, flotation of grounded margins in some areas, and retreat of the ice sheet into the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. The results show that regional variations in climate, ice-sheet geometry, and topography produce long-term sea-level contributions that are non-linear with respect to the applied forcings, and which under certain conditions exhibit threshold behaviour associated with behavioural tipping points.

Postglacial relative sea-level changes in northwest Iceland: Evidence from isolation basins, coastal lowlands and raised shorelines

AbstractRelative sea-level (RSL) data provide constraints on land uplift associated with former ice loading and can be used to differentiate between contrasting ice unloading scenarios. Isolation basin, coastal lowland and geomorphological evidence is employed to reconstruct RSL changes in northwest (NW) Iceland, which may have experienced contrasting uplift patterns. Under local (NW) uplift, highest RSL would be expected in central Vestfirðir, whereas highest RSL would be closest to the main ice-loading centre under regional (central Iceland) uplift. Four new RSL records are presented based on 16 sea-level index points and 4 limiting ages from sites principally focussed along a transect away from central Iceland. The new RSL records highlight spatial variability of Holocene RSL changes and provide constraints on deglaciation. There is an increase in marine limit elevation with proximity to the proposed principal ice loading centre in central Iceland. Highest recorded marine limit shorelines are found in Hrútafjörður-Heggstaðanes (southeast), the lowest in Hlöðuvík and Rekavík bak Látrum (north), and at an intermediate elevation in Reykjanes-Laugardalur (central Vestfirðir). Evidence from Breiðavik-Látrar records early rapid deglaciation in Breiðafjörður or a complex interplay of multiple uplift centres. RSL fell rapidly following deglaciation in several locations as a result of the quick response of the Icelandic lithosphere to unloading. The RSL data along the transect show an uplift pattern consistent with extensive regional glaciation emanating from central Iceland, which could have implications for ice sheet configuration and patterns of deglaciation, glacio-isostatic adjustment modelling and the volume of meltwater input into the North Atlantic.