Ice Mass Research Articles

Geothermal Heat Flow and Thermal Structure of the Antarctic Lithosphere

AbstractHigh‐quality maps of Geothermal heat flow (GHF) are crucial when modeling ice dynamics, shape, and mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which is one of the largest potential contributors to sea level rise. The determination of GHF remains challenging, as in situ data are sparse and geophysical models exhibit large discrepancies in amplitude and resolution, especially on regional scales. Using a novel approach implementing a joint inversion of gravity and seismic tomography data with various geophysical and mineral physics information, we estimate the 3D thermal lithospheric structure and present a new GHF map. The resulting surface heat flow correlates with the location of subglacial volcanism and can represent a boundary condition for accurate ice dynamics models that can explain observed acceleration in the ongoing ice mass loss. Absolute values are within the range of other seismology‐based methods and are much lower than those obtained using for example, magnetic data. High uncertainties remain in the parametrization of the upper crustal structure and thermal parameters.

Feasibility of a global inversion for spatially resolved glacial isostatic adjustment and ice sheet mass changes proven in simulation experiments

Estimating mass changes of ice sheets or of the global ocean from satellite gravimetry strongly depends on the correction for the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) signal. However, geophysical GIA models are different and incompatible with observations, particularly in Antarctica. Regional inversions have resolved GIA over Antarctica without ensuring global consistency, while global inversions have been mostly constrained by a priori GIA patterns. For the first time, we set up a global inversion to simultaneously estimate ice sheet mass changes and GIA, where Antarctic GIA is spatially resolved using a set of global GIA patterns. The patterns are related to deglaciation impulses localized along a grid over Antarctica. GIA associated with four regions outside Antarctica is parametrized by global GIA patterns induced by deglaciation histories. The observations we consider here are satellite gravimetry, satellite altimetry over Antarctica and Greenland, as well as modelled firn thickness changes. Firn thickness changes are also parametrized to account for systematic errors in their modelling. Results from simulation experiments using realistic signals and error covariances support the feasibility of the approach. For example, the spatial RMS error of the estimated Antarctic GIA effect, assuming a 10-year observation period, is 31% and 51%, of the RMS of two alternative global GIA models. The integrated Antarctic GIA error is 8% and 5%, respectively, of the integrated GIA signal of the two models. For these results realistic error covariances incorporated in the parameter estimation process are essential. If error correlations are neglected, the Antarctic GIA RMS error is more than twice as large.Highlightsbullet We present a globally consistent inversion approach to co-estimate glacial isostatic adjustment effects together with changes of the ice mass and firn air content in Greenland and Antarctica. bullet The inversion method utilizes data sets from satellite gravimetry, satellite altimetry, regional climate modelling, and firn modelling together with the full error-covariance information of all input data. bullet The simulation experiments show that the proposed GIA parametrization in Antarctica can resolve GIA effects unpredicted by geophysical modelling, despite realistic input-data limitations.

The Evolution of the Two Largest Tropical Ice Masses since the 1980s

As tropical glaciers continue to retreat, we need accurate knowledge about where they are located, how large they are, and their retreat rates. Remote sensing data are invaluable for tracking these hard-to-reach glaciers. However, remotely identifying tropical glaciers is prone to misclassification errors due to ephemeral snow cover. We reevaluate the size and retreat rates of the two largest tropical ice masses, the Quelccaya Ice Cap (Peru) and Nevado Coropuna (Peru), using remote sensing data from the Landsat missions. To quantify their glacial extents more accurately, we expand the time window for our analysis beyond the dry season (austral winter), processing in total 529 Landsat scenes. We find that Landsat scenes from October, November, and December, which are after the dry season, better capture the glacial extent since ephemeral snow cover is minimized. We compare our findings to past studies of tropical glaciers, which have mainly analyzed scenes from the dry season. Our reevaluation finds that both tropical ice masses are smaller but retreating less rapidly than commonly reported. These findings have implications for these ice masses as sustained water resources for downstream communities.

A detection of the sea level fingerprint of Greenland Ice Sheet melt.

Rapid melting of ice sheets and glaciers drives a unique geometry, or fingerprint, of sea level change. However, the detection of individual fingerprints has been challenging because of sparse observations at high latitudes and the difficulty of disentangling ocean dynamic variability from the signal. We predict the fingerprint of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) melt using recent ice mass loss estimates from radar altimetry data and model reconstructions of nearby glaciers and compare this prediction to an independent, altimetry-derived sea surface height trend corrected for ocean dynamic variability in the region adjacent to the ice sheet. A statistically significant correlation between the two fields (P < 0.001) provides an unambiguous observational detection of the near-field sea level fingerprint of recent GrIS melting in our warming world.

Influence of Ice Accretion on Stratospheric Airship in the Non-Forming Ascending Process

Ice accretion on stratospheric airships, which affects the net buoyancy and reduces the ascent speed, thereby leading to component failure and further necessitating flight termination, has received considerable attention. In this study, the formation of ice occurred when the airship hit supercooled water droplets during the non-forming ascending process. Theoretical descriptions of an ice accretion model, a thermal model, and a dynamic model for airships were established to estimate the flight performance with ice mass. Then, validation of the simulation and the cloud chamber test was carried out, which indicated that the temperature, liquid water content (LWC), and pressure considerably influenced the ice mass. A lower temperature had a positive effect on ice accretion. The mass of ice accretion increased with the increase in LWC. Ice did not form easily under low pressure due to evaporation and sublimation. Finally, the effects of the ambient LWC and initial helium mass were analyzed. It was shown that an LWC of 0.5 g/m3 resulted in severe degradation of the ascent performance. When the initial helium mass was not sufficient, the airship landed due to ice accumulation. However, redundant inflation increased the ice mass and lowered the cruising altitude.

Development of an undershot cross-flow hydraulic turbine resistant to snow and ice masses flowing in an installation canal

This study developed a microhydraulic turbine that can stably and efficiently generate electricity even in canals where snow and ice masses frequently flow down. An undershot cross-flow hydraulic turbine was selected as the development target, and experiments were conducted in an irrigation canal in a heavy snowfall area. Spherical snowballs were made to flow down to the turbine from the upstream direction. The behavior of the snowballs and the power generation performance were investigated as these snowballs passed through the rotor. When the diameter of the snowball is smaller than the blade interval of the rotor, the snowball passing through the rotor causes a small decrease in power output. In contrast, when the diameter of the snowball is larger than the blade interval, the snowball is entrained between the rotor and canal bottom, temporarily stopping the rotor, and resulting in a large decrease in power generation. These results suggest that an undershot cross-flow hydraulic turbine can reduce power generation performance due to snow and ice masses when its blade interval is larger than the expected size of the snow and ice masses. This study developed some design guidelines for this turbine that are highly adaptable to snow- and ice-flowing irrigation canals.

60 million years of glaciation in the Transantarctic Mountains

The Antarctic continent reached its current polar location ~83 Ma and became shrouded by ice sheets ~34 Ma, coincident with dramatic global cooling at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary. However, it is not known whether the first Antarctic glaciers formed immediately prior to this or were present significantly earlier. Here we show that mountain glaciers were likely present in the Transantarctic Mountains during the Late Palaeocene (~60–56 Ma) and middle Eocene (~48–40 Ma). Temperate (warm-based) glaciers were prevalent during the Late Eocene (~40–34 Ma) and, in reduced numbers, during the Oligocene (~34–23 Ma), before larger, likely cold-based, ice masses (including ice sheets) dominated. Some temperate mountain glaciers were present during the Miocene Climatic Optimum (~15 Ma), before a widespread switch to cold-based glaciation. Our findings highlight the longevity of glaciation in Antarctica and suggest that glaciers were present even during the Early-Cenozoic greenhouse world.

GEORADAR AND RADIOIMPEDANCE DIAGNOSTICS OF THE SELENGA RIVER WATER AREA

The relevance of the work is determined by the fact that no radiowave methods have ever been used to study the water areas of rivers and lakes and their geoelectric sections within the Baikal natural territory (BNT) in winter time. The purpose of the research is to determine the electrical and geometric characteristics of the layered medium "ice – water – bottom soil" and the ice cover of the Selenga River on the BNT in the VLF-LF and VHF radio wave bands according to the data of instrumental radiophysical measurements by GPR and radio impedance methods, including the determination of the structure of the ice crossings over the Selenga River. Using the Selenga River as an example, consideration has been given to the results of combining VLF-LF and VHF methods of electromagnetic diagnostics of a layered medium in a wide range of radio waves (from tens of kilohertz to units of gigahertz). Radio impedance profiling and sounding in the VLF-LF bands with the IPI-300 equipment made it possible to determine the sub-bottom structure of the soil from the change in impedance and geoelectric section. GPR in the VHF band made it possible to differentiate the fine structure of the Selenga River in winter by thickness of snow, ice and water. The sounding involved the use of georadar "Oko-2" with antenna units "Triton" (central frequency 50 MHz), AB-400 (central frequency 400 MHz), AB-700 (central frequency 700 MHz), and AB-1700 (central frequency 1700 MHz). The thickness of ice of the road crossing in the Mostovoy microdistrict of Ulan-Ude city was 0.5–1.2 m – 0.1–0.2 m thicker than that beyond the road crossing. It was found that the presence of snow cover beyond the road crossing prevents the ice mass from freezing. Calibration sounding of ice with borehole drilling yielded ice dielectric constant ε=3.17. The specific electrical resistance (SER) of water from boreholes is 71–74 Ohm·m at a temperature of 1 °C. The methods used complement each other and provide a quantitative description of the object of research. The integration of various methods of radio wave diagnostics provides more detailed information on the structure of the layered medium "ice – water – bottom soil". The obtained results and the developed methods of radio impedance and GPR sounding and profiling of an inhomogeneously layered underlying environment in winter time can be used in engineering and geological surveys in the eastern and northern regions of Russia.

An investigation on the speed dependence of ice resistance using an advanced CFD+DEM approach based on pre-sawn ice tests

Over the past decades, the underlying mechanism of level ice resistance changing with ship speed has not been fully understood, particularly the resistance component due to ship interactions with broken ice pieces. Pre-sawn ice test can negate icebreaking component from the whole resistance of a ship in level ice, providing an effective approach to decompose ship-ice interactions and investigate the speed-dependent resistance from broken ice pieces. This work has built a computational model that can realistically simulate a ship advancing in a pre-sawn ice channel. The model applies Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to solve the flow around an advancing ship, which is coupled with an enhanced Discrete Element Method (DEM) to model pre-sawn ice pieces. Model-scale experiments have also been conducted at the Aalto Ice Tank to validate the simulations, which shows the computational model can provide a reasonable estimation of the pre-sawn ice's resistance and movement around the ship. Upon validation, the dependence of ice resistance on ship speed was analysed. The simulations enable underwater monitoring of the ice motions, indicating that the speed dependence results from the mass of ice submerged underneath the ship and the displacement of broken ice induced by the ship. The identified relationships are more complex than the widely-used assumption that ice resistance linearly changes with ship speed in all cases, which provides a deeper understanding of ice resistance. As such, the findings from this study can potentially facilitate improvements in relevant empirical equations, useful for ship design, operational strategies and maritime management in polar regions.

Ice mass loss sensitivity to the Antarctic ice sheet basal thermal state

Sea-level rise projections rely on accurate predictions of ice mass loss from Antarctica. Climate change promotes greater mass loss by destabilizing ice shelves and accelerating the discharge of upstream grounded ice. Mass loss is further exacerbated by mechanisms such as the Marine Ice Sheet Instability and the Marine Ice Cliff Instability. However, the effect of basal thermal state changes of grounded ice remains largely unexplored. Here, we use numerical ice sheet modeling to investigate how warmer basal temperatures could affect the Antarctic ice sheet mass balance. We find increased mass loss in response to idealized basal thawing experiments run over 100 years. Most notably, frozen-bed patches could be tenuously sustaining the current ice configuration in parts of George V, Adélie, Enderby, and Kemp Land regions of East Antarctica. With less than 5 degrees of basal warming, these frozen patches may begin to thaw, producing new loci of mass loss.

Reliability of flood marks and practical relevance for flood hazard assessment in southwestern Germany

Abstract. Flood marks are rarely utilized in hazard assessment, mainly because of a lack of data availability and accessibility and mistrust in their reliability. Challenging these common assumptions, we present an approach for evaluation and practical utilization of flood marks by the example of the Kinzig River, a Rhine tributary from the Black Forest with a history of severe floods. We combined written documents describing flood marks with field mapping at three study sites and collected information relating to 89 marks – about 50 % of them still preserved – which refer to ≥15 large floods between 1824 and 1991. The inclusion of a detailed historical-mark survey enabled an assessment of changes through time for each flood mark: they extend from small (±15 cm) imprecisions in mark heights to considerable uncertainties in position, height, and displayed date for some modified marks. Plausibility checks with further data nevertheless demonstrated good overall consistency. We then juxtaposed these marks with the current, modeled flood hazard maps. A wide agreement is apparent, in that the large majority of marks are situated at probable heights and within the modeled flooding area associated with extreme floods. For the few exceptions, we see plausible and historically sound reasons in changed local hydraulic conditions by flood protection walls, exceptional processes during a massive ice jam, and possibly also a local underestimation of hazard along Kinzig River tributaries. Overall, this study highlights (1) the broad availability of flood mark data, both on a larger spatial scale and with regard to already vanished marks, and (2) the significance of the marks, verified by further data, and also demonstrates (3) the possibility of a straightforward inclusion in hazard assessment. We thus encourage the systematic collection, maintenance, and integration of flood marks as responsible risk management, not least regarding their value in the wider context of risk awareness and memory.

Multi-year evolution of 75 snow and ice deposits in Schachtdolines and Shafts of recently deglaciated karst terrain: Observations from Mount Canin-Kanin, Julian Alps, Europe

Dolines and shafts are common geomorphologies in karst landscapes. When affected also by glacial processes, they are considered an example of glaciokarst landform. In high alpine karst, their typical vertical shape lends itself particularly well to the formation of snow and ice accumulations that can survive the ablation season, potentially becoming perennial. This study analyses the 12-years changes of several permanent snow-ice deposits in Schachtdolines and Shafts (SIDS) and compares them with the mass balance of surrounding external ice bodies. According to recent studies and in contrast with the rest of the Alpine glaciers, ice masses of the area are resilient to climate change and show a slightly positive mass balance in the last decade. The presence of a long term mass balance monitoring program provides an excellent basis for a robust comparison with 75 selected SIDS, all located in the Mount Canin-Kanin massif, in the Julian Alps. Six airborne LiDAR surveys performed from 2006 to 2018 at the end of the ablation season allowed accurate calculation of thickness and volume changes. The measured differences show a general increase in thickness of the SIDS with more than one meter gain, although multi-annual observed variability between the sites is high. The observed 2006–2018 positive mass balance is in agreement with the external cryosphere although SIDS appear even more resilient than the external ice patches to both interannual weather variability and climate forcing.

Antarctic Ice Mass Change (2003–2016) Jointly Estimated by Satellite Gravimetry and Altimetry

AbstractAccurate estimation of ongoing Antarctic ice mass change is important to predict future ice mass loss and subsequent sea level rise. Over the past two decades, Antarctic ice mass changes have been observed by the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) gravity mission, but the low spatial resolution of GRACE has limited understanding of glacial‐scale contributions. In this study, we combine GRACE and altimetry data to obtain mass change estimates with greatly improved spatial resolution. Combined estimates are obtained by a constrained linear deconvolution algorithm used in a previous GRACE study. Satellite altimetry observations are introduced as an a priori and resulting estimates retain the high spatial resolution of satellite altimetry, but when smoothed agree with low resolution GRACE data. These glacial‐scale estimates also agree with ice budget calculations using the input‐output method.

The singing firn

AbstractAntarctic firn presents an exotic seismological environment in which the behaviors of propagating waves can be significantly at odds with those in other Earth media. We present a condensed view of the nascent field of ambient noise seismology in Antarctic firn-covered media, and highlight multiple unusual and information-rich observations framed through the lens of the firn's important role as a buffer for air temperature anomalies and a complex contributor to ice mass balance. We summarize key results from several recent papers depicting novel wind-excited firn resonances and point to the plethora of ways these observations could facilitate imaging and monitoring of glacial systems at single, isolated seismometers. Finally, we propose significant instrumental and computational objectives necessary to constrain resonance excitation mechanisms and broadly apply these observations as useful monitoring tools in Antarctica.

Kinetics of confined water freezing – An application to the frost-resistance of porous materials

In the manuscript one presents a regular study aiming to determine the relation describing the freezing kinetics as a function of temperature employing the following cooling rates: 2.5 °C/min, 5 °C/min, 7.5 °C/min and 10 °C/min. The increase in ice mass is determined using differential scanning calorimeter by integrating the net heat flow for two building materials: red clay brick and cement paste (w/c = 0.5). The isoconversional method, which states that the transition rate (the rate of ice mass) at constant extent of conversion (ice mass) depends only on temperature, is applied to determine a transition model. We select the most appropriate model and determine the kinetic triplet using the method proposed by Málek and recommended by International Committee for Thermal Analysis and Calorimetry (ICTAC). The activation energy is estimated using the differential Friedman's method. Both analysed materials evinced different microstructures, but the kinetic parameters determined for both of them are relatively similar. Hence, one might conclude that the kinetic of inpore water freezing is not very sensitive to size of voids. The results of experimental analysis enabled one to formulate the general kinetic equations for both analysed materials. The comparison of theoretical and experimental results evinces good agreement. Therefore, the formulas derived in the manuscript might be used for further analysis of the porous building materials durability, which experience significant temperature fluctuations. Furthermore, they can be used to design the most efficient testing procedure for the determination of frost resistance of concrete. The proposed procedure might be used for other problems related with the phase transition of water in porous materials, i.e., food freezing geotechnics, etc.Concluding, the results calculated using the proposed models for both materials are in good agreement with the experimental data. Therefore, the formulas derived in the manuscript might be used for further analysis of the porous building materials durability, which experience significant temperature fluctuations. Furthermore, they can be used to design the most efficient testing procedure for the determination of frost resistance of concrete. The proposed procedure might be used for other problems related with the phase transition of water in porous materials, i.e. food freezing geotechnics, etc.

Increasing stable time-step sizes of the free-surface problem arising in ice-sheet simulations

Numerical models for predicting future ice mass loss of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets require accurately representing their dynamics. Unfortunately, ice-sheet models suffer from a very strict time-step size constraint, which for higher-order models constitutes a severe bottleneck; in each time step a nonlinear and computationally demanding system of equations has to be solved. In this study, stable time-step sizes are increased for a full-Stokes model by implementing a so-called free-surface stabilization algorithm (FSSA). Previously this stabilization has been used successfully in mantle-convection simulations where a similar viscous-flow problem is solved. By numerical investigation it is demonstrated that instabilities on the very thin domains required for ice-sheet modeling behave differently than on the equal-aspect-ratio domains the stabilization has previously been used on. Despite this, and despite the different material properties of ice, it is shown that it is possible to adapt FSSA to work on idealized ice-sheet domains and increase stable time-step sizes by at least one order of magnitude. The FSSA method presented is deemed accurate, efficient and straightforward to implement into existing ice-sheet solvers.

Modelling the influence of marine ice on the dynamics of an idealised ice shelf

AbstractUnderstanding the dynamic behaviour of ice shelves, specifically the controls on their ability to buttress the flow of ice into the ocean, is critical for predicting future ice-sheet contributions to sea level rise. Many large ice shelves, which are predominantly composed of meteoric ice, have a basal layer of marine ice (formed from accumulated platelets at the ice–ocean interface), comprising up to 40% of their thickness locally. Differences in temperature, chemistry and microstructure between marine and meteoric ice mean the rheological properties of the ice vary throughout the ice shelf. These differences are not explicitly accounted for in ice-sheet modelling applications, and may have an important influence on ice shelf dynamics. We tested the sensitivity of a model of an idealised ice shelf to variations in temperature distribution and flow enhancement, and found that incorporating a realistic thermal profile (where the marine ice layer is isothermal) had an order of magnitude greater effect on ice mass flux and thinning than incorporating the mechanical properties of the marine ice. The presence of marine ice at the ice shelf base has the potential to significantly increase deviatoric stresses at the surface and ice mass flux across the front of an ice shelf.

Glacimarine sediments from outer Drygalski Trough, sub-Antarctic South Georgia – evidence for extensive glaciation during the Last Glacial Maximum

South Georgia, one of the largest sub-Antarctic islands, is located within the Southern Ocean and is influenced by the moisture-supplying Southern Westerlies and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which are highly susceptible to Southern Hemisphere climate variability. Its unique location causes South Georgia's remaining ice masses to react sensitively to climate change, resulting in highly dynamic ice cap waxing and waning, as well as in geomorphological and sedimentological changes on the island and its continental shelf. Sediments around the island have been archiving this ice cap behaviour since at least the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and are therefore an important target to investigate past ice cap evolution and climate. Despite several interdisciplinary studies on land and in coastal areas, much of the glacial history is still poorly constrained due to a lack of offshore data. This study presents the, thus far, most distal marine sediment succession from outer Drygalski Trough on the mid-continental shelf of South Georgia. Composite multi-proxy-analyses, together with radiocarbon dating, sub-bottom profiler and high-resolution bathymetric data provide first insights into the evolution of a large glacial trough south of South Georgia since the LGM. Several moraines close to the shelf edge indicate shelf-wide glaciation during the local LGM, which, based on extrapolation of the oldest reliable radiocarbon date, occurred before 30 ka BP at the earliest. Basal stratified diamicton at the core site was interpreted as waterlain till deposited in a subglacial cavity with restricted seawater access and suggests grounding zone-proximal sedimentation in the early phases of deglaciation. The ice margin remained stable until ∼17.5 cal ka BP, when ice quickly retreated from the mid-continental shelf and sedimentation at the core site was dominated by hemipelagic suspension settling with some iceberg melting. Further retreat was interrupted by a local ice readvance and associated increased hinterland erosion during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (14.5–12.8 ka), as indicated by peak sedimentation rates (>190 cm ka−1) between 13.4 and 12.4 cal ka BP. In contrast, the continuous deposition of ice-distal to open-marine mud at rates of only ∼30 cm ka−1 throughout the Holocene indicate that any other LGM-subsequent glacier readvances reached significantly lesser extents and were probably confined to the fjord. Our data provide new evidence in support of a shelf-wide glaciation during the LGM and suggest rapid, but stepwise ice retreat during deglaciation.

Character of advance and retreat of the southwest sector of the British-Irish Ice Sheet during the last glaciation

Relict landforms and sediments across former glaciated settings provide information about ice-sheet dynamics and can contribute to the understanding of the behaviour of contemporary ice masses, for which observations are limited in spatial and temporal extent. In this study, we focus on the shelf offshore southwest Ireland, in the Celtic Sea, which was once occupied by the Irish Sea Ice Stream (ISIS), the largest ice stream draining the southern portion of the marine-terminating British-Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS). Newly acquired high-resolution multibeam echosounder, sub-bottom and core data enabled the investigation of the shelf geomorphology and of the sedimentology and chronology of glacial and glacimarine sediments. A suite of drumlins records ice sheet flow from the coastline towards the central part of the shelf in southwest Ireland. Pre-existing highs in the seafloor topography promoted the formation of arcuate and transverse landforms interpreted as a grounding-zone wedge and moraines and they document episodic retreat of the ISIS across this portion of the shelf. Observed lithofacies show consolidated subglacial till and laminated fine muds. The sediments provide evidence of ice grounded ca. 30 km off the south-west Irish coastline with subsequent deglaciation occurring under glacimarine conditions. These new data refine the current reconstructions of the dynamics of the southern BIIS. They reveal for the first time the interplay of marine- and land-based ice and the presence of grounded ice offshore SW Ireland. This study highlights the importance of high-resolution data in revealing palaeo-landscapes as valuable analogues to test possible scenarios of modern ice sheet changes.

The Influence of the Solid Earth on the Contribution of Marine Sections of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Future Sea‐Level Change

AbstractSeismic tomography models indicate highly variable Earth structure beneath Antarctica with anomalously low shallow mantle viscosities below West Antarctica. An improved projection of the contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to sea‐level change requires consideration of this complexity to precisely account for water expelled into the ocean from uplifting marine sectors. Here we build a high‐resolution 3‐D viscoelastic structure model based on recent inferences of seismic velocity heterogeneity below the continent. The model serves as input to a global‐scale sea‐level model that we use to investigate the influence of solid Earth deformation in Antarctica on future global mean sea‐level (GMSL) rise. Our calculations are based on a suite of ice mass projections generated with a range of climate forcings and suggest that water expulsion from the rebounding marine basins contributes 4%–16% and 7%–14% to the projected GMSL change at 2100 and 2500, respectively.