Ice Jams Research Articles

Measuring the skill of an operational ice jam flood forecasting system

Though mitigation measures and research have increased over the last few decades, ice jams and associated flooding continue to be one of the most underestimated disasters in many northern countries. Operational ice jam flood forecasting systems are becoming one of the more prominent tools used in mitigating ice-related flood risk within Canada. Several forecasting systems have been adopted across the country and forecasters are constantly looking to improve the accuracy and consistency of their systems. The Lower Red River in Manitoba has been the subject in discussion of many ice jam related studies, and a data-driven ice-jam hazard forecasting system is currently in use at this site. This system differs from hydrologic model driven forecasting systems used for other ice jam prone rivers across Canada. This study focuses on identifying the methodology of the data driven ice jam flood forecasting system, along with the methodology of the forecasting procedures. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the data driven forecasting system is measured and assessed for the Lower Red River's 2020 breakup season.

An ice jam flood hazard assessment of a lowland river and its terminus inland delta

Flooding is one of the most frequent and most costly natural disasters that occur throughout Canada, and although there is ongoing work to update and improve flood hazard assessments and mapping of high flood risk rivers throughout the country, most studies only delve into open water flooding. However, many rivers in Canada experience higher peak water levels due to ice jamming, resulting in severe flooding of surrounding areas. Hence, there is an urgency to expand current flood hazard assessments to include ice jam flooding for better flood management practices. One area that is often plagued with ice jam flooding is the lowest reach of Manitoba’s Red River. The Lower Red River is a low-lying river with a terminus inland delta where water levels are governed by Lake Winnipeg. Ice jam floods often divert water into the lower Red River’s floodplain that is continually being encroached by development. RIVICE, Environment Canada’s one-dimensional ice hydraulic model, was set up within a Monte Carlo framework to simulate an envelope of backwater level profiles that result from ice jams within the study site. Non-exceedance probability profiles were created from the envelope of backwater level profiles to assess ice jam flood hazard.

Asynchronous Hydroclimatic Modeling for the Construction of Physically Based Streamflow Projections in a Context of Observation Scarcity

Asynchronous hydroclimatic modelling is proposed for the construction of physically based streamflow projections over regions characterized by meteorological observation scarcity. The novel approach circumvents the requirement for meteorological observations by 1) calibrating quantile mapping transfer functions simultaneously to the parameters of the hydrologic model, 2) forcing the hydrologic model with post-processed climate simulations, and 3) intentionally ignoring the correlation between simulated streamflow values and observations. As a result, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed are integrated to a full hydroclimatic modelling chain, allowing the construction of streamflow projections forcing the Penman-Montheith reference evapotranspiration formulation over a forested catchment that flows into the St-Lawrence River, Canada. Results confirm a more accurate simulated hydrological response relative to a conventional hydroclimatic modelling chain employing reanalyses as description of the climate system. They also highlight the contribution to uncertainty in streamflow projections from biased climate variables issued by the reanalyses. The suggested framework assumes the hydrologic regime as a functional proxy to corresponding climate drivers. We believe the latter opens promising perspectives in the scope of producing more reliable estimations of water-related and energy-driven processes such as streamflow generation, snow accumulation and melt, river ice jams, water temperature, or vegetation growth under evolving climate conditions.

Impact of Climate Change on the Frequency of Dynamic Breakup Events and on the Risk of Ice-Jam Floods in Quebec, Canada

In cold regions, every year, river-ice jams generate sudden, surprising, intense flooding that challenges the capacity of public security services. This type of flood is commonly unpredictable and often appears chaotic because its occurrence depends on multiple, interacting weather, hydrological, ice and morphological parameters. This paper presents the findings of a research project assessing how climate change impacts dynamic river-ice breakup and associated floods along seven rivers of the province of Quebec, Canada. A combination of empirical river-ice breakup models, state-of-the-art hydrological simulations and standardized climate projections was used to estimate the historical (1972–2000) and future (2042–2070) frequencies of dynamic breakup events. Ice jam flood damage reimbursement data were used to predict changes to financial risk associated with dynamic breakup events. Results show that, overall, ice-jam floods will generate more damage in the future, which justifies watershed-based flood adaptation plans that take into account cold regions hydrological processes. The success of the methodology also sets the table for a comparable project that would include more rivers from different regions of Northeastern America.

An automated procedure to map breaking river ice with C-band HH SAR data

The development of effective strategies to manage the river ice breakup process or the associated risks is hindered by a lack of understanding and information. Radar earth observation satellites offer excellent potential for collecting up-to-date information on the conditions of and changes in river ice cover during the breakup period. This text describes the development, performance and limitations of an automated procedure to map breaking river ice by means of C-band, HH-polarized Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. An original two-step supervised classification model (IceBC), which uses backscatter intensities, lies at the core of the procedure. First, IceBC identifies three primary classes: water, sheet ice and rubble ice. Next, each primary ice class is divided in three secondary classes that denote top surface roughness scale differences. Input images must have incidence angles from ~27° to ~60°. Below ~36°, IceBC may assign a class labelled “unclassified” to water or sheet ice pixels. The primary classification model yields overall accuracies of ~86% and ~93% for independent test pixels with incidence angles ≤ ~49° and ≥ ~29° or ≥ ~36°, respectively. The associated class accuracies for water, sheet ice and rubble ice are ~97% & 96%, ~69% & 85% and ~97% & 99%. Given its connection to ice jam flood events, the classification accuracy achieved for rubble ice is particularly important. Maps produced by means of IceBC comprise detailed spatial information regarding ice cover conditions and the development of the breakup process. Their quality may be affected by: freezing conditions, wet snow cover, meltwater pools, infrastructure, rapids or high winds. Monitoring is the key to managing the impacts of most of these challenges. An IceBC prototype has been used operationally since 2015.

Incorporating sediment non‐stationarity into ice‐affected flood‐risk projections

AbstractSediment deposition and ice jams can both increase river stages. Ice and sediment both reduce channel conveyance, affecting the flow‐stage relationship and flood risk. Classic hydrologic statistics systemically under‐predict flood risk in depositional rivers or reaches with frequent ice jams. However, when both processes influence not only flood stage but each other, the interacting processes can complicate flood risk assessment. The Big Rapids reach of the Muskegon River developed ice jams in at least 16 of the last 81 years and is actively aggrading. In reaches like this, contemporary flood risk analysis must consider ice impacts (often without local gage data) and future flood risk analysis must consider of the non‐stationary impacts of deposition on channel capacity and ice‐jam frequency. This work used hydraulic, ice jam, and sediment transport models to calculate contemporary, ice‐affected flood risk (without local stage data) and quantify the impact of deposition on future ice jams and flood risk. Accounting for ice jams increased the flood stage associated with the 1% annual flood by 0.5‐1.1 m. Sediment deposition increased future flood risk between 0.06 m (on the topset slope of a reservoir delta) and 2 m (at the advancing foreset slope).

Carrying Capacity of a Flow with Flow Rounding under Permafrost Conditions

Under natural conditions in winter, narrowing of a flow due to partial freezing of the channel and formation of a slush ice run or ice jam, as a result of which flow speeds increase in sections of the turn of the channel, is characteristic. Laboratory experiments that have been carried out in the rotary installation of the hydraulics laboratory at the to model such a section, have shown that if the flow speeds entering the curvature increase or there is an increase in the Reynolds number, vortex motions and counterflows at the inner slope inevitably occur, which inevitably is shown in the nature of the channel washout.

Frazil ice jam risk assessment method for water transfer projects based on design scheme

Abstract Frazil ice jam risk assessment is an important method to improve the operational safety of water transfer projects. A frazil ice jam assessment method was developed based on project design conditions to ensure the risk level of frazil ice jam. A frazil ice jam risk assessment indicator system was incorporated into the method that included three first-level indicators, such as ice production, special hydraulic structure and basic design parameters, and 17 third-level indicators for calculation analysis. Then, a standard assessment system was proposed, and an analytic hierarchy process method was used to determine the magnitude of the frazil ice jam risk. Finally, the method was used to study the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (MRSNWDP) from the Guyunhe to Beijumahe canals. The results showed that all of the canal pools had frazil ice jam risk levels between III and IV, of which approximately 15% of the pools have risk level IV, and the canal pools with risk level IV were reported to have ice jam incidents, and it suggested that the ice condition prediction, engineering operation process in winter, engineering measures for disaster reduction and emergency plan refinement need to be strengthened for the pools with risk level IV. Therefore, the method of frazil ice jam risk assessment based on project design conditions can perform well in both the built-operating stage and the design stage of water transfer projects. Frazil ice jam risk prevention is a task through the full life-cycle of water project construction, it is necessary to do risk assessment work at design stage, and the work should be written into the national standard.

A Canadian River Ice Database from the National Hydrometric Program Archives

Abstract. River ice, like open-water conditions, is an integral component of the cold-climate hydrological cycle. The annual succession of river ice formation, growth, decay and clearance can include low flows and ice jams, as well as midwinter and spring break-up events. Reports and associated data of river ice occurrence are often limited to single locations or regional assessments, are season-specific, and use readily available data. Within Canada, the National Hydrometric Program (NHP) operates a network of gauging stations with water level as the primary measured variable to derive discharge. In the late 1990s, the Water Science and Technology Directorate of Environment and Climate Change Canada initiated a long-term effort to compile, archive and extract river-ice-related information from NHP hydrometric records. This data article describes the original research data set produced by this near 20-year effort: the Canadian River Ice Database (CRID). The CRID holds almost 73 000 recorded variables from a subset of 196 NHP stations throughout Canada that were in operation within the period 1894 to 2015. Over 100 000 paper and digital files were reviewed, representing 10 378 station years of active operation. The task of compiling this database involved manual extraction and input of more than 460 000 data entries on water level, discharge, ice thickness, date, time and data quality rating. Guidelines on the data extraction, rating procedure and challenges are provided. At each location, time series of up to 15 variables specific to the occurrence of freeze-up and winter-low events, midwinter break-up, ice thickness, spring break-up, and maximum open-water level were compiled. This database follows up on several earlier efforts to compile information on river ice, which are summarized herein, and expands the scope and detail for use in Canadian river ice research and applications. Following the Government of Canada Open Data initiative, this original river ice data set is available at https://doi.org/10.18164/c21e1852-ba8e-44af-bc13-48eeedfcf2f4 (de Rham et al., 2020).

Floating Ice Transport Conditions at the Cross-Sections Between Pier Columns in Open Ice-Water Two-Phase Flow Canals

Floating ice is easy to jam at the cross-sections contracted by bridge pier, gate pier, etc., in ice-water two-phase flow canals. To solve the problem, the critical hydraulic conditions of floating ice transport at the cross-sections between pier columns were explored in this study. Based on the generalized physical model of the cross-sections between pier columns of water transfer canals, the movement and transport characteristics of floating ice in front of the pier columns were studied under different hydraulic conditions and ice conditions, and the critical hydraulic conditions necessary for floating ice to pass through the cross-sections between pier columns were analyzed. Moreover, dimensional analysis and regression analysis were carried out in order to establish an empirical equation for calculating the critical water flow Fr (Froude number) for the floating ice to be transported through the cross-sections between pier columns, thus providing a basis for the ice jam risk assessment and hydraulic regulation of ice-water two-phase flow canals, as well as control of the emergent ice drainage of canals during freezing periods.

Hazardous Ice Phenomena In Rivers Of The Russian Arctic Zone Under Current Climate Conditions And The Safety Of Water Use

The ice regime of the Russian Arctic rivers and its hazardous manifestations under current climate conditions are characterized. The ice phenomena in rivers in the region determine the conditions of navigation, water supply, hydropower station (HPS) operation, and the construction of temporary ice bridges and roads. Data of more than 100 hydrological gages over period from 1936 to 2016 were used to compile various cartographic materials and to analyze the spatial variations of the dates of ice phenomena, the duration of ice-free and ice cover periods, and the maximal ice thickness. Special attention is paid to the characteristics of level regime in periods with ice phenomena. Data on the frequency of floodplain inundation during spring ice run, the hazard of ice jams, and the seasonal features of the passage of maximal annual water level are generalized.The observed changes in ice regime characteristics and ice hazard are analyzed. The years of the start of statistically significant shift of the periods of ice phenomena, caused by both climate changes and anthropogenic impact, are identified. The increase in the duration of the ice-free period was found to be not greater than 3–4 days for East Siberian rivers, 5–6 days for the Middle and West Siberian rivers, and up to 10–12 days for the rivers in the European part. A decrease in the maximal ice thickness is most pronounced in the rivers of the Northern European Russia, where it is 10–15 cm. The frequency of floodplain inundation during spring ice run remains constant.

Mapping, Monitoring, and Prediction of Floods Due to Ice Jam and Snowmelt with Operational Weather Satellites

Among all the natural hazards throughout the world, floods occur most frequently. They occur in high latitude regions, such as: 82% of the area of North America; most of Russia; Norway, Finland, and Sweden in North Europe; China and Japan in Asia. River flooding due to ice jams may happen during the spring breakup season. The Northeast and North Central region, and some areas of the western United States, are especially harmed by floods due to ice jams and snowmelt. In this study, observations from operational satellites are used to map and monitor floods due to ice jams and snowmelt. For a coarse-to-moderate resolution sensor on board the operational satellites, like the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on board the National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) series, and the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on board the GOES-R series, a pixel is usually composed of a mix of water and land. Water fraction can provide more information and can be estimated through mixed-pixel decomposition. The flood map can be derived from the water fraction difference after and before flooding. In high latitude areas, while conventional observations are usually sparse, multiple observations can be available from polar-orbiting satellites during a single day, and river forecasters can observe ice movement, snowmelt status and flood water evolution from satellite-based flood maps, which is very helpful in ice jam determination and flood prediction. The high temporal resolution of geostationary satellite imagery, like that of the ABI, can provide the greatest extent of flood signals, and multi-day composite flood products from higher spatial resolution imagery, such as VIIRS, can pinpoint areas of interest to uncover more details. One unique feature of our JPSS and GOES-R flood products is that they include not only normal flood type, but also a special flood type as the supra-snow/ice flood, and moreover, snow and ice masks. Following the demonstrations in this study, it is expected that the JPSS and GOES-R flood products, with ice and snow information, can allow dynamic monitoring and prediction of floods due to ice jams and snowmelt for wide-end users.

Assessment of the community vulnerability to extreme spring floods: the case of the Amga River, central Yakutia, Siberia

Abstract Spring floods in Siberia annually affect local communities. Major urban settlements in the region implemented flood control structures, so rural areas take a heavy beating. In 2018, spring floods severely hit multiple communities in central Yakutia, exposing deficient flood prevention and risk management practices. Notably, Amga village, an important local center, was severely inundated. Hydrological analysis shows that the 2018 flood had a 50-yr return period, and was caused by an ice jam in a nearby channel bend where mid-channel sand bars impede ice movement during breakup. The cold spells of late April and early May in the middle section of the river promote ice-jam development, causing extreme water stage rise. Highest water stage is unrelated to either winter snow water equivalent or early May rainfall. Estimated tangible direct damage to the Amga community equals 5.1B ($81.5M) in 2018 prices, but only 0.13B ($2.1M), or 2.5% of this total, was reclaimed. A questionnaire survey revealed that most residents report important deterioration of drinking water quality and health after flooding. Residents respond positively to risk mitigation actions, implemented by the local and regional authorities, except ice dusting and cutting, and report minor activity of official sources in spreading information on flood progress.

Current status and advancement suggestions of ice-jam flood hazard and risk assessment

In many northern rivers, ice-jam flooding can be more severe than open-water flooding, leading to human casualties, damages to property and infrastructure, and adverse impacts on the ecology. Consequently, ice jam related flooding is a major concern for many riverside communities, water authorities, insurance companies, and government agencies. Ice-jam flood hazard delineation and risk analysis are important measures for flood preparation, mitigation, and management strategies. Although methodologies and techniques for open-water flood hazard and risk assessment are well established, methodologies and techniques for ice-jam flood hazard and risk assessment are often unavailable or less developed. In addition to this, a considerable number of studies have been conducted in the context of flood management, but a very limited number of studies have been carried out in real-time flood risk analysis during operational flood forecasting. In this paper, the current status of ice-jam flood hazard delineation and risk analysis is discussed. A framework for real-time risk analysis for operational flood forecasting is also discussed. Finally, current limitations and future requirements for developing effective ice-jam flood hazard delineation and risk analysis methodologies are provided.

Laboratory tests to investigate the initial phase of ice ridge consolidation

During lake/sea ice ridging and river ice jamming, broken ice blocks experience transient heat conduction. In present work, this process is represented by submerging a cold fresh-ice block into fresh water at freezing point. The thermal behavior of ice was investigated both experimentally in the cold laboratory of Norwegian University of Science and Technology and numerically with Finite Differential Method (FDM). Most thermal properties of fresh water and fresh ice are well known except the heat transfer between ice and water (convective flux). Ice pieces with varying initial thicknesses and temperatures were applied while ice growth and temperature histories were measured. The physical experiments were performed to obtain a heat transfer coefficient (h), which was essential to calculate the convective flux. The two dimensionless numbers, Fourier and Stefan numbers, were used to study the development of ice temperatures and the ice growth. During the process the convective flux has limited influence on ice temperature while it reduced the maximum ice growth. This is because new ice that forms on the water-ice interface insulates the original ice from the water. In other words, the dimensionless temperature development is governed by the Fourier number alone. The ice growth, on the other hand, is influenced by the convective flux, so that a higher initial thickness and/or a lower initial temperature decreases the ice growth fraction. A balance of latent heat, inertia and convective flux shows that an increase of convective flux directly reduces latent flux and consequently the ice growth. The overall results from simulation and experiments demonstrate that an areal scalar (convective flux) and a volumetric scalar (latent energy flux) cannot be scaled simultaneously. Therefore, the dimensionless ice growth is a function of Stefan number and modified by convective flux, which is parameterized by initial temperature and thickness.

Geographical analysis of river flood hazard in Siberia

ABSTRACTSiberia is a huge and relatively sparsely populated territory in the centre of Eurasia with a harsh climate and diverse flow formation conditions. Nevertheless, it is characterized by a high flood hazard, as most of the settlements and industrial centres are located along river banks. The flood hazard can vary across space and time against a background of climatic and anthropogenic changes, as well as socio-economic factors. We carried out a geographical analysis of floods as a tool to identify the present status of flood hazard in Siberia. The analysis included: analysis of flood hazard during a period of climatic change (1985–2016); analysis of ice jams and ice dams as a specific natural factor causing floods; and identification of areas with different flood hazards using multi-scale mapping. Rainfall floods, mixed floods (due to rainfall and snowmelt) and floods resulting from ice dams are the most dangerous in Siberia. They have the highest rate of recurrence, strength of impact, and number of fatalities and displaced people. The locations of areas with different flood hazards were identified by multi-scale mapping. The highest flood hazard in Siberia is in the most populated and economically developed southern regions along the Ob, Lena, Yenisei rivers and in the Lake Baikal basin. In areas with a high flood hazard, complex measures are needed, taking into account regional peculiarities.

Naturalized flow regime of the regulated Peace River, Canada, during the spring breakup of the ice cover

The Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD) in northern Alberta is one of the world's largest inland freshwater deltas, home to many species of fish, mammals, and birds. Coincident with regulation that commenced in 1968, the PAD has experienced prolonged dry periods in-between floods, accompanied by reduction in the area covered by lakes and ponds that provide habitat for aquatic life. This likely resulted from reduced frequency of formation of major spring ice jams, which are the only mechanism for replenishing the higher-elevation, or “perched”, basins of the PAD. The inundation effectiveness of ice jams depends on the magnitude of the prevailing river flow, but it has not been possible so far to assess whether regulation has had a positive or negative effect on breakup flows. Using a comprehensive BC Hydro data set, containing river inflows up to the W.A.C. Bennet Dam, “naturalized” breakup flows are computed; these are flows that would have occurred under natural flow conditions and are tabulated for each year of the study period (1972–2016). The rigour and utility of the adopted “lagged-flow” methodology are demonstrated via basic hydrodynamic principles and comparisons with independently generated numerical-modelling data for an early portion of the regulation period. Though there can be significant differences between naturalized and regulated flows in individual years, average flow during the first week of May, the typical time when major ice jams form, has not been affected by regulation. During the last week of April and the second week of May, regulation has respectively had a positive and negative effect on average flow. Naturalized flows exhibit practically no temporal trend in the study period (1972–2016), while regulated flows exhibit decreasing, but not statistically significant (P-value > 0.05), trends. It is shown further that the time when the regulated spring outflow begins to be curtailed can be a key factor in Peace River flow conditions near the PAD.

Boundary conditions for damming of a large river by fallout during the 12,900 BP Plinian Laacher See Eruption (Germany). Syn-eruptive Rhine damming II

The Rhine River (Germany) - the largest river in Western Europe - was dammed by pyroclastic material multiple times during the major Plinian Laacher See Eruption (12,900 BP). Dams formed both upstream and downstream of the broad tectonic Lower Neuwied Basin (LNB) which interrupts the narrow Rhine canyon. Here we document upstream damming of the Rhine River at the entrance to the LNB close to the present city of Koblenz due to overloading with tephra fall into the Rhine and its major tributaries, the Moselle and the Lahn. The dam was formed repeatedly during rapid pumice tephra fall events and became breached during breaks in eruptive activity, causing extensive, high-energy flooding throughout the entire basin. The ephemeral Koblenz dams differed significantly from “normal” volcanically-induced dams by being composed principally of washed-together pumice clasts and some driftwood. The porous nature of pumice and its ability to absorb water were crucial factors. Thus, a large volume percentage of the tephra that had fallen into the Rhine floated submerged within the upper part of the water column or swam at the surface. Moreover, the absorption of the river water by the pumice clasts increased the sediment:water ratio of the two-phase flow considerably. We here present a model of dam formation resembling the formation of ice jams. We visualize the Koblenz dams to have been elongate, partly floating and partly grounded, permeable plugs several kilometers long and rising no higher than the flood plain. Damming was most plausibly initiated in the LNB within the area of maximum tephra loading and propagated upstream in a chain reaction similar to the formation of traffic jams. A major dam was finally accumulated at the bottleneck entrance to the LNB, a site combining several favorable conditions: the upstream multi-channel Rhine was confined to a single channel, change of flow direction by 125°, extremely low gradient (0.19‰) starting already 24 km upstream of the bottleneck, constant decrease of flow velocity over several kilometers towards the bottleneck and the Moselle River - largest tributary of the Rhine within the LNB and an important conveyor of additional tephra masses – entered the Rhine only 700 m upstream of the bottleneck. We assume that the Koblenz dams could only have formed and been stabilized by an extremely long “foot region” that extended many kilometers downstream and that was possibly connected to one or several low-rise secondary jams/dams. The backwater of Lake Brohl that was dammed by pyroclastic flows 7 km downstream of the LNB about halfway through the eruption extended upstream into the LNB during the second Plinian stage of the Laacher See Eruption and was probably a major factor contributing to the formation and large size of Koblenz Dam No.4. The Koblenz dams were probably not completely sealed most of the time. This way, the major pre-eruptive Rhine channel received some water. An equilibrium condition was established that allowed the dams to remain stable as long as tephra fell into the Rhine relatively continuously.

Criteria for Submergence of Ice Blocks in Front of Ice Cover

During winter, ice jams develop when floating ice blocks accumulate in rivers. Ice jams can dramatically decrease in the capacity of flow in a river and can cause ice flooding due to increase in water level. Submergence of floating ice blocks in front of ice cover is critical for the development of an ice jam. In this study, the effect of the rotation angle of ice blocks on the submergence of ice block was assessed. The impacts of both the drag force caused by the flow and the hydraulic pressure force on the rotation of ice block were studied. Considering both the maximum moment for anti-overturn of an ice block, and the associated rotation angle θ1, equations for describing the criteria for ice block entrainment in front of ice cover have been derived. On the basis of the theorem for moment equilibrium, relating the moment acting on a horizontal ice block with the maximum anti-overturn moment of an ice block, the criteria for assessing the overturn-and-submergence of an ice block have been proposed. To verify results using the derived equations for calculating the critical flow velocity for ice block submergence in front of ice cover, data was collected from flume experiments in the laboratory. Experiments have been conducted using different sizes of ice block under different flow conditions in a flume which is 26.68 m long, 0.40 m wide, and 0.6 m deep. Model ice blocks were made of polypropylene and have nearly the same as the mass density of the natural ice. Using proposed method for assessing ice block submergence in front of ice cover, calculated critical flow velocities agree well with those of experiments.

Ice jam flood risks on the rivers of the Baikal Basin

The article presents the results of analysis and assessment of risks related to ice jams on the rivers of the Baikal Lake Basin. It also proposes the recommendations for mitigation and rational development of coastal areas. Data on catastrophic ice jam floods for more than 100 years is presented, the factors of their formation and mechanism of their movement are considered. On the basis of official statistics from expedition surveys, potentially dangerous jamming areas have been identified, and the repeatability and extent of floods have been calculated. With the help of ArcGIS package the scale of possible flooding was determined, which allowed to reveal the list of economic objects within the damage area. Specific indicators have been used to calculate the expected damage to territories, facilities and population from the flood hazard. Analysis and assessment of economic risk from the floods on the Selenga River are given. Measures to minimize risks of negative impact of floods are proposed.