The formation, evolution and properties of noctilucent clouds are studied using a timedependent one-dimensional model of ice particles at mesospheric altitudes. The model treats ice crystals, meteoric dust, water vapor and air ionization as fully interactive cloud elements. For ice particles, the microphysical processes of nucleation, condensation, coagulation and sedimentation are included; the crystal habits of ice are also accounted for. Meteoric dust is analyzed in the manner of Hunten et al. (1980). The simulated particle sizes range from 10 Å to 2.6μm. The chemistry of water vapor and the charge balance of the mesosphere are also analyzed in detail. Based on model calculations, including numerous sensitivity tests, several conclusions are reached. Extremely cold mesopause temperatures (<140K) are necessary to form noctilucent clouds; such temperatures only exist at high latitudes in summer. A water vapor concentration of 4–5 ppmv is sufficient to form a visible cloud. However, a subvisible cloud can exist in the presence of only 1 ppmv of H 2O. Ample cloud condensation nuclei are always present in the mesosphere; at very low temperatures, either meteoric dust or hydrated ions can act as cloud nuclei. To be effective, meteoric dust particles must be larger than 10–15 Å in radius. When dust is present, water vapor supersaturations may be held to such low values that ion nucleation is not possible. Ion nucleation can occur, however, in the absence of dust or at extremely low temperatures (<130K). While dust nucleation leads to a small number (<10cm −3) of large ice particles (>0.05 μm radius) and cloud optical depths (at 550 nm) ∼10 −4, ion nucleation generally leads to a large number (∼10 3cm −3) of smaller particles and optical depths ∼10 −5). However, because calculated nucleation rates in noctilucent clouds are highly uncertain, the predominant nucleus for the clouds (i.e., dust or ions) cannot be unambiguously established. Noctilucent clouds require several hours-up to a day-to materialize. Once formed, they may persist for several days, depending on local meteorological conditions. However, the clouds can disappear suddenly if the air warms by 10–20 K. The environmental conditions which exist at the high-latitude summer mesopause, together with the microphysics of small ice crystals, dictate that particle sizes will be ≲ 0.1 μm radius. The ice crystals are probably cubic in structure. It is demonstrated that particles of this size and shape can explain the manifestations of noctilucent clouds. Denser clouds are favored by higher water vapor concentrations, more rapid vertical diffusion and persistent upward convection (which can occur at the summer pole). Noctilucent clouds may also condense in the cold “troughs” of gravity wave trains. Such clouds are bright when the particles remain in the troughs for several hours or more; otherwise they are weak or subvisible. Model simulations are compared with a wide variety of noctilucent cloud data. It is shown that the present physical model is consistent with most of the measurements, as well as many previous theoretical results. Ambient noctilucent clouds are found to have a negligible influence on the climate of Earth. Anthropogenic perturbations of the clouds that are forecast for the next few decades are also shown to have insignificant climatological implications.
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