Ice Discharge Research Articles

Past ice stream and ice sheet changes on the continental shelf off the Sabrina Coast, East Antarctica

Our understanding of the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate and ocean changes requires the improvement of current ice-atmosphere-ocean models and the accurate determination of boundary conditions such as ice thickness and extent at key time intervals, so that satellite gravity observations and isostatic models can be adjusted. However, large portions of the Antarctic margin remain understudied or lack suitable data. One key area where data are lacking, is the Sabrina Coast portion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) margin where the Totten Glacier, which has the largest ice discharge in East Antarctica, is accelerating, thinning and loosing mass at high rates. In this work, we present the results of the first geological and geophysical marine survey to the continental shelf offshore of the Dalton Ice Tongue and Moscow University ice shelf, east of the Totten Glacier. The data presented include multibeam swath bathymetry and multichannel seismic, focusing on the sea floor morphology and sedimentary section above a regional angular unconformity separating pre- and post-Miocene glacial strata. Sea floor scouring and iceberg keel marks on the outer shelf, associated with gullies on the upper slope indicate that ice expanded in the past and grounded ~5 km from the shelf edge at ~450–500 mbsl, extending ~155 km north of the current Moscow University Ice Shelf. A nearly 1000 m deep area in the inner-middle shelf, oriented NW with paleo-ice flow direction indicated by mega scale glacial lineations (MSGL) and drumlins, is interpreted as a cross shelf glacial trough. A series of geomorphic associations on the north-eastern side of the glacial trough includes glacial lobes, grounding zone wedges (GZW), glacial lineations and transverse ridges, which indicates slower ice, grounding line stabilization and collapse. These geomorphic associations are organized in 4 four sets representing different past ice-flow configurations reflecting changes in ice flow direction, grounding line position, location of fast and slow ice areas, and retreat pattern. Some of the geomorphic features identified are compatible with the presence of an organized subglacial drainage, and others are with rapid grounding line collapse. A well-preserved series of GZWs occurring at different water depths implies they were formed during different glacial stages or cycles. The inferred diminishing ice thickness for consecutives GZWs indicates that the margin of the Antarctic ice sheet evolved to a less extensive coverage of the continental shelf through successive glacial stages or cycles.The identification of different ice flow configurations, evidence of subglacial water and past ice margin collapse indicates a dynamic ice sheet margin with varying glacial conditions and retreat modes. We observe that some of the described morphological associations are similar to those found in the Amundsen sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) where they are associated with ice sheet and ice stream collapse. Although further studies are needed to assess the precise timing and rates of the glacial processes involved, we conclude that there is enough evidence to support the hypothesis that the EAIS margin can behave as dynamically as the WAIS margin, especially during glacial retreat and icesheet margin collapse.

Ocean as the main driver of Antarctic ice sheet retreat during the Holocene

Abstract Ocean-driven basal melting has been shown to be the main ablation process responsible for the recession of many Antarctic ice shelves and marine-terminating glaciers over the last decades. However, much less is known about the drivers of ice shelf melt prior to the short instrumental era. Based on diatom oxygen isotope (δ18Odiatom; a proxy for glacial ice discharge in solid or liquid form) records from western Antarctic Peninsula (West Antarctica) and Adelie Land (East Antarctica), higher ocean temperatures were suggested to have been the main driver of enhanced ice melt during the Early-to-Mid Holocene while atmosphere temperatures were proposed to have been the main driver during the Late Holocene. Here, we present a new Holocene δ18Odiatom record from Prydz Bay, East Antarctica, also suggesting an increase in glacial ice discharge since ~4500 years before present (~4.5 kyr BP) as previously observed in Antarctic Peninsula and Adelie Land. Similar results from three different regions around Antarctica thus suggest common driving mechanisms. Combining marine and ice core records along with new transient accelerated simulations from the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model, we rule out changes in air temperatures during the last ~4.5 kyr as the main driver of enhanced glacial ice discharge. Conversely, our simulations evidence the potential for significant warmer subsurface waters in the Southern Ocean during the last 6 kyr in response to enhanced summer insolation south of 60°S and enhanced upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Water towards the Antarctic shelf. We conclude that ice front and basal melting may have played a dominant role in glacial discharge during the Late Holocene.

Changing pattern of ice flow and mass balance for glaciers discharging into the Larsen A and B embayments, Antarctic Peninsula, 2011 to 2016

Abstract. We analysed volume change and mass balance of outlet glaciers on the northern Antarctic Peninsula over the periods 2011 to 2013 and 2013 to 2016, using high-resolution topographic data from the bistatic interferometric radar satellite mission TanDEM-X. Complementary to the geodetic method that applies DEM differencing, we computed the net mass balance of the main outlet glaciers using the mass budget method, accounting for the difference between the surface mass balance (SMB) and the discharge of ice into an ocean or ice shelf. The SMB values are based on output of the regional climate model RACMO version 2.3p2. To study glacier flow and retrieve ice discharge we generated time series of ice velocity from data from different satellite radar sensors, with radar images of the satellites TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X as the main source. The study area comprises tributaries to the Larsen A, Larsen Inlet and Prince Gustav Channel embayments (region A), the glaciers calving into the Larsen B embayment (region B) and the glaciers draining into the remnant part of the Larsen B ice shelf in Scar Inlet (region C). The glaciers of region A, where the buttressing ice shelf disintegrated in 1995, and of region B (ice shelf break-up in 2002) show continuing losses in ice mass, with significant reduction of losses after 2013. The mass balance numbers for the grounded glacier area of region A are −3.98 ± 0.33 Gt a−1 from 2011 to 2013 and −2.38 ± 0.18 Gt a−1 from 2013 to 2016. The corresponding numbers for region B are −5.75 ± 0.45 and −2.32 ± 0.25 Gt a−1. The mass balance in region C during the two periods was slightly negative, at −0.54 ± 0.38 Gt a−1 and −0.58 ± 0.25 Gt a−1. The main share in the overall mass losses of the region was contributed by two glaciers: Drygalski Glacier contributing 61 % to the mass deficit of region A, and Hektoria and Green glaciers accounting for 67 % to the mass deficit of region B. Hektoria and Green glaciers accelerated significantly in 2010–2011, triggering elevation losses up to 19.5 m a−1 on the lower terminus during the period 2011 to 2013 and resulting in a mass balance of −3.88 Gt a−1. Slowdown of calving velocities and reduced calving fluxes in 2013 to 2016 coincided with years in which ice mélange and sea ice cover persisted in proglacial fjords and bays during summer.

The sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to glacial–interglacial oceanic forcing

Abstract. Observations suggest that during the last decades the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has experienced a gradually accelerating mass loss, in part due to the observed speed-up of several of Greenland's marine-terminating glaciers. Recent studies directly attribute this to warming North Atlantic temperatures, which have triggered melting of the outlet glaciers of the GrIS, grounding-line retreat and enhanced ice discharge into the ocean, contributing to an acceleration of sea-level rise. Reconstructions suggest that the influence of the ocean has been of primary importance in the past as well. This was the case not only in interglacial periods, when warmer climates led to a rapid retreat of the GrIS to land above sea level, but also in glacial periods, when the GrIS expanded as far as the continental shelf break and was thus more directly exposed to oceanic changes. However, the GrIS response to palaeo-oceanic variations has yet to be investigated in detail from a mechanistic modelling perspective. In this work, the evolution of the GrIS over the past two glacial cycles is studied using a three-dimensional hybrid ice-sheet–shelf model. We assess the effect of the variation of oceanic temperatures on the GrIS evolution on glacial–interglacial timescales through changes in submarine melting. The results show a very high sensitivity of the GrIS to changing oceanic conditions. Oceanic forcing is found to be a primary driver of GrIS expansion in glacial times and of retreat in interglacial periods. If switched off, palaeo-atmospheric variations alone are not able to yield a reliable glacial configuration of the GrIS. This work therefore suggests that considering the ocean as an active forcing should become standard practice in palaeo-ice-sheet modelling.

Increased West Antarctic and unchanged East Antarctic ice discharge over the last 7 years

Abstract. Ice discharge from large ice sheets plays a direct role in determining rates of sea-level rise. We map present-day Antarctic-wide surface velocities using Landsat 7 and 8 imagery spanning 2013–2015 and compare to earlier estimates derived from synthetic aperture radar, revealing heterogeneous changes in ice flow since ∼ 2008. The new mapping provides complete coastal and inland coverage of ice velocity north of 82.4° S with a mean error of < 10 m yr−1, resulting from multiple overlapping image pairs acquired during the daylight period. Using an optimized flux gate, ice discharge from Antarctica is 1929 ± 40 Gigatons per year (Gt yr−1) in 2015, an increase of 36 ± 15 Gt yr−1 from the time of the radar mapping. Flow accelerations across the grounding lines of West Antarctica's Amundsen Sea Embayment, Getz Ice Shelf and Marguerite Bay on the western Antarctic Peninsula, account for 88 % of this increase. In contrast, glaciers draining the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have been remarkably constant over the period of observation. Including modeled rates of snow accumulation and basal melt, the Antarctic ice sheet lost ice at an average rate of 183 ± 94 Gt yr−1 between 2008 and 2015. The modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years is contrasted by high rates of ice sheet mass loss and distinct spatial patters of elevation lowering. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is experiencing high rates of mass loss and displays distinct patterns of elevation lowering that point to a dynamic imbalance. We find modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years, which suggests that the recent pattern of mass loss in Antarctica is part of a longer-term phase of enhanced glacier flow initiated in the decades leading up to the first continent-wide radar mapping of ice flow.

High-Resolution Interannual Mass Anomalies of the Antarctic Ice Sheet by Combining GRACE Gravimetry and ENVISAT Altimetry

Knowledge of interannual mass variations of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) associated with its surface mass change is important for correctly interpreting the long-term mass trend and evaluating the fidelity of surface mass balance from regional climate models. Here, we revisit the interannual anomalies of mass change from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and elevation change from ENVISAT over the AIS during 2003–2009, with the objective of obtaining higher resolution interannual mass anomalies based on ENVISAT data. High positive correlations (>0.6) between the two interannual anomalies are primarily found over the west AIS and coastal regions in the east AIS, occupying more than 40% of the AIS. By combining the two interannual anomalies, we are able to estimate the density of snow/ice changing interannually over regions in the AIS. Especially over the Amundsen Sea sector with significant interannual signals, the temporal variability of the density of snow/ice associated with interannual anomalies is shown for the first time, which agrees with the events of excess snow accumulation and the accelerated ice discharge occurring there. Furthermore, we demonstrate the feasibility of obtaining higher resolution interannual mass anomalies over the west AIS, based on the density-corrected ENVISAT data. Negative correlations, which were also found in a previous study, are likely related to errors in the relatively weak interannual signals.

Ice on the run.

Scientists are unraveling why certain glaciers are prone to surging abruptly—sometimes wiping out people in their path

The Role of African Dust in Atlantic Climate During Heinrich Events

AbstractIncreased ice discharge in the North Atlantic is thought to cause a weakening, or collapse, of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) during Heinrich events. Paleoclimate records indicate that these periods were marked by severe tropical aridity and dustiness. Although the driver of these events is still under debate, large freshwater input is necessary for climate models to simulate the magnitude, geographical extent, and abruptness of these events, indicating that they may be missing feedbacks. We hypothesize that the dust‐climate feedback is one such feedback that has not been previously considered. Here we analyze the role of dust‐climate feedbacks on the AMOC by parameterizing the dust radiative effects in an intermediate complexity model and consider uncertainties due to wind stress forcing and the magnitude of both atmospheric dust loading and freshwater hosing. We simulate both stable and unstable AMOC regimes by changing the prescribed wind stress forcing. In the unstable regime, additional dust loading during Heinrich events cools and freshens the North Atlantic and abruptly reduces the AMOC by 20% relative to a control simulation. In the stable regime, however, additional dust forcing alone does not alter the AMOC strength. Including both freshwater and dust forcing results in a cooling of the subtropical North Atlantic more comparable to proxy records than with freshwater forcing alone. We conclude that dust‐climate feedbacks may provide amplification to Heinrich cooling by further weakening AMOC and increasing North Atlantic sea ice coverage.

Geometry and ice dynamics of the Darwin–Hatherton glacial system, Transantarctic Mountains

ABSTRACTThe Darwin–Hatherton Glacial system (DHGS) connects the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) with the Ross Ice Shelf and is a key area for understanding past variations in ice thickness of surrounding ice masses. Here we present the first detailed measurements of ice thickness and grounding zone characteristics of the DHGS as well as new measurements of ice velocity. The results illustrate the changes that occur in glacier geometry and ice flux as ice flows from the polar plateau and into the Ross Ice Shelf. The ice discharge and the mean basal ice shelf melt for the first 8.5 km downstream of the grounding line amount to 0.24 ± 0.05 km3 a−1 and 0.3 ± 0.1 m a−1, respectively. As the ice begins to float, ice thickness decreases rapidly and basal terraces develop. Constructed maps of glacier geometry suggest that ice drainage from the EAIS into the Darwin Glacier occurs primarily through a deep subglacial canyon. By contrast, ice thins to <200 m at the head of the much slower flowing Hatherton Glacier. The glaciological field study establishes an improved basis for the interpretation of glacial drift sheets at the link between the EAIS and the Ross Ice Sheet.

Spatial Patterns of Summer Speedup on South Central Alaska Glaciers

AbstractSeasonal changes in glacier basal motion are attributable to variations in subglacial hydrology and cause variations in both ice discharge and glacier erosion. We develop a novel workflow based upon Landsat 8 feature tracking to document differences between spatial patterns of summer and winter glacier surface speed, which reflect changes in the distribution of basal motion. We identify and characterize summer speedups on 13 of 19 land‐terminating glaciers in Alaska's Wrangell‐St Elias Ranges. The speedups are relatively uniform over much of the ablation zones, and the speedup magnitudes vary by only a factor of ~2 between glaciers whose velocities span an order of magnitude. Summer speedups extend up to ~30 km up glacier from termini and often end at the bases of icefalls. These data provide systematic observation of the spatial pattern of enhanced summer glacier basal motion and suggest the possibility of its parameterization in glacier models.

Palaeoceanographic evolution of the SW Svalbard shelf over the last 14 000 years

The palaeoceanographic evolution of the SW Svalbard shelf west of Hornsund over the last 14 000 years was reconstructed using benthic foraminiferal assemblages, stable oxygen and carbon isotopes, and grain‐size and ice‐rafted debris data. The results reveal the complexity of the feedbacks influencing the shelf environment: the inflow of Atlantic and Arctic waters (AW and ArW, respectively), and the influence of sea ice and tidewater glaciers. The inflow of subsurface AW onto the shelf gradually increased with the first major intrusion at the end of the Bølling‐Allerød. During the Younger Dryas, the shelf was affected by fresh water originating from sea ice and glacier discharge. Glaciomarine conditions prevailed until the earliest Holocene with the intense deliveries of icebergs and meltwater from retreating glaciers and the occasional penetration of AW onto the shelf. Other major intrusions of AW occurred before and after the Preboreal oscillation (early Holocene), which resulted in more dynamic and open‐water conditions. Between 10.5 and 9.7 cal. ka BP, the shelf environment transformed from glaciomarine to open marine conditions. Between c. 9.7 and 6.1 cal. ka BP the AW advection reached its maximum, resulting in a highly dynamic and productive environment. At c. 6.1 cal. ka BP, the inflow of AW onto the Svalbard shelf decreased due to the intensification of the Greenland Gyre and the subduction of AW under the sea‐ice‐bearing ArW. Bioproductivity decreased over the next c. 5500 years. During the Little Ice Age, bioproductivity increased due to favourable conditions in the marginal sea‐ice zone despite the effects of cooling. The renewed advection of AW after AD 1850 started the climate warming trend observed presently. Our findings show that δ18O can be used to reconstruct the dominances of different water‐masses and, with some caution, as a proxy for the presence of sea ice in frontal areas over the northwestern Eurasian shelves.

2D EVOLUTION PATTERN AND 3D RECONSTRUCTION OF TWO LARGE RIFTS IN FILCHNER ICE SHELF FROM SATELLITE IMAGES

Abstract. The floating ice shelves surrounding the Antarctic Ice Sheet is important for the stability of the grounded ice-sheet. Fracturing and calving event of an ice shelf can damage the structural integrity and contributes to an increase in ice discharge to the ocean. In this study, we focus on two large newly-developed traverse rifts in the frontal region of Filchner Ice Shelf which may lead to next major calving in the region. Two-dimensional evolution of the two rifts were investigated in detail using multisource remote sensing data, Two abrupt extensions in 2006 and 2011 were found with a rate of more than 1 km d-1. Moreover, a stereo pair of ZY-3 images was utilized for the first time to reconstruct the 3D rift model where an average rift depth of 48 m and ice mélange rise of ~10 m were measured.

Statistically optimal estimation of Greenland Ice Sheet mass variations from GRACE monthly solutions using an improved mascon approach

We present an improved mascon approach to transform monthly spherical harmonic solutions based on GRACE satellite data into mass anomaly estimates in Greenland. The GRACE-based spherical harmonic coefficients are used to synthesize gravity anomalies at satellite altitude, which are then inverted into mass anomalies per mascon. The limited spectral content of the gravity anomalies is properly accounted for by applying a low-pass filter as part of the inversion procedure to make the functional model spectrally consistent with the data. The full error covariance matrices of the monthly GRACE solutions are properly propagated using the law of covariance propagation. Using numerical experiments, we demonstrate the importance of a proper data weighting and of the spectral consistency between functional model and data. The developed methodology is applied to process real GRACE level-2 data (CSR RL05). The obtained mass anomaly estimates are integrated over five drainage systems, as well as over entire Greenland. We find that the statistically optimal data weighting reduces random noise by 35–69%, depending on the drainage system. The obtained mass anomaly time-series are de-trended to eliminate the contribution of ice discharge and are compared with de-trended surface mass balance (SMB) time-series computed with the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO 2.3). We show that when using a statistically optimal data weighting in GRACE data processing, the discrepancies between GRACE-based estimates of SMB and modelled SMB are reduced by 24–47%.

From cyclic ice streaming to Heinrich-like events: the grow-and-surge instability in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model

Abstract. Here we report on a cyclic, physical ice-discharge instability in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, simulating the flow of a three-dimensional, inherently buttressed ice-sheet-shelf system which periodically surges on a millennial timescale. The thermomechanically coupled model on 1 km horizontal resolution includes an enthalpy-based formulation of the thermodynamics, a nonlinear stress-balance-based sliding law and a very simple subglacial hydrology. The simulated unforced surging is characterized by rapid ice streaming through a bed trough, resulting in abrupt discharge of ice across the grounding line which is eventually calved into the ocean. We visualize the central feedbacks that dominate the subsequent phases of ice buildup, surge and stabilization which emerge from the interaction between ice dynamics, thermodynamics and the subglacial till layer. Results from the variation of surface mass balance and basal roughness suggest that ice sheets of medium thickness may be more susceptible to surging than relatively thin or thick ones for which the surge feedback loop is damped. We also investigate the influence of different basal sliding laws (ranging from purely plastic to nonlinear to linear) on possible surging. The presented mechanisms underlying our simulations of self-maintained, periodic ice growth and destabilization may play a role in large-scale ice-sheet surging, such as the surging of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which is associated with Heinrich events, and ice-stream shutdown and reactivation, such as observed in the Siple Coast region of West Antarctica.

An Oldest Dryas glacier expansion on Mount Pelister (Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia) according to 10 Be cosmogenic dating

We provide a geomorphological analysis of a glacial valley on Mount Pelister, in Macedonia. Three boulders from a frontal moraine were dated with the cosmogenic nuclide isotope 10 Be. The results demonstrate that the boulders have been exposed since 15.24 ± 0.85 ka. This age constrains the formation of the frontal moraine to the Oldest Dryas cold event. This age fits with that of other glacier deposits dated to the Older Dryas in the Alps, Balkans, Carpathians and Turkish mountains. The Pelister palaeoglacier has been reconstructed and its equilibrium line altitude extracted, returning a value of 2250 m a.s.l. This is in good agreement with the equilibrium line altitudes of most other reconstructed glaciers of the same age in the circum-Mediterranean mountains, demonstrating a comparable response to the Oldest Dryas event. Other palaeoenvironmental records near the Pelister mountain indicate that the Older Dryas was here characterized by a cold and remarkably dry event. The temporal relationship between Older Dryas glacier advances in the Balkan region and recorded changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation during the Laurentide Ice Sheet massive ice discharge (H1 event) confirms the strong climatic link between the pan-Mediterranean regions and the North Atlantic Ocean. Supplementary material: Geochemical laboratory results are available at http://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3830254

Future sea level change from Antarctica's Lambert‐Amery glacial system

AbstractFuture global mean sea level (GMSL) change is dependent on the complex response of the Antarctic ice sheet to ongoing changes and feedbacks in the climate system. The Lambert‐Amery glacial system has been observed to be stable over the recent period yet is potentially at risk of rapid grounding line retreat and ice discharge given that a significant volume of its ice is grounded below sea level, making its future contribution to GMSL uncertain. Using a regional ice sheet model of the Lambert‐Amery system, we find that under a range of future warming and extreme scenarios, the simulated grounding line remains stable and does not trigger rapid mass loss from grounding line retreat. This allows for increased future accumulation to exceed the mass loss from ice dynamical changes. We suggest that the Lambert‐Amery glacial system will remain stable or gain ice mass and mitigate a portion of potential future sea level rise over the next 500 years, with a range of +3.6 to −117.5 mm GMSL equivalent.

Sediment transport drives tidewater glacier periodicity

Most of Earth’s glaciers are retreating, but some tidewater glaciers are advancing despite increasing temperatures and contrary to their neighbors. This can be explained by the coupling of ice and sediment dynamics: a shoal forms at the glacier terminus, reducing ice discharge and causing advance towards an unstable configuration followed by abrupt retreat, in a process known as the tidewater glacier cycle. Here we use a numerical model calibrated with observations to show that interactions between ice flow, glacial erosion, and sediment transport drive these cycles, which occur independent of climate variations. Water availability controls cycle period and amplitude, and enhanced melt from future warming could trigger advance even in glaciers that are steady or retreating, complicating interpretations of glacier response to climate change. The resulting shifts in sediment and meltwater delivery from changes in glacier configuration may impact interpretations of marine sediments, fjord geochemistry, and marine ecosystems.

Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections – the MAGICC sea level model v2.0

Abstract. Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the major impacts of global warming; it will threaten coastal populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems around the globe in coming centuries. Well-constrained sea level projections are needed to estimate future losses from SLR and benefits of climate protection and adaptation. Process-based models that are designed to resolve the underlying physics of individual sea level drivers form the basis for state-of-the-art sea level projections. However, associated computational costs allow for only a small number of simulations based on selected scenarios that often vary for different sea level components. This approach does not sufficiently support sea level impact science and climate policy analysis, which require a sea level projection methodology that is flexible with regard to the climate scenario yet comprehensive and bound by the physical constraints provided by process-based models. To fill this gap, we present a sea level model that emulates global-mean long-term process-based model projections for all major sea level components. Thermal expansion estimates are calculated with the hemispheric upwelling-diffusion ocean component of the simple carbon-cycle climate model MAGICC, which has been updated and calibrated against CMIP5 ocean temperature profiles and thermal expansion data. Global glacier contributions are estimated based on a parameterization constrained by transient and equilibrium process-based projections. Sea level contribution estimates for Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are derived from surface mass balance and solid ice discharge parameterizations reproducing current output from ice-sheet models. The land water storage component replicates recent hydrological modeling results. For 2100, we project 0.35 to 0.56 m (66 % range) total SLR based on the RCP2.6 scenario, 0.45 to 0.67 m for RCP4.5, 0.46 to 0.71 m for RCP6.0, and 0.65 to 0.97 m for RCP8.5. These projections lie within the range of the latest IPCC SLR estimates. SLR projections for 2300 yield median responses of 1.02 m for RCP2.6, 1.76 m for RCP4.5, 2.38 m for RCP6.0, and 4.73 m for RCP8.5. The MAGICC sea level model provides a flexible and efficient platform for the analysis of major scenario, model, and climate uncertainties underlying long-term SLR projections. It can be used as a tool to directly investigate the SLR implications of different mitigation pathways and may also serve as input for regional SLR assessments via component-wise sea level pattern scaling.

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Columbia Glacier, Alaska (2011–2016): Ice Velocity, Mass Flux, Surface Elevation and Front Position

Alaskan glaciers are among the largest contributors to sea-level rise outside the polar ice sheets. The contributions include dynamic discharge from marine-terminating glaciers which depends on the seasonally variable ice velocity. Columbia Glacier is a large marine-terminating glacier located in Southcentral Alaska that has been exhibiting pronounced retreat since the early 1980s. Since 2010, the glacier has split into two branches, the main branch and the west branch. We derived a 5-year record of surface velocity, mass flux (ice discharge), surface elevation and changes in front position using a dense time series of TanDEM-X synthetic aperture radar data (2011–2016). We observed distinct seasonal velocity patterns at both branches. At the main branch, the surface velocity peaked during late winter to midsummer but reached a minimum between late summer and fall. Its near-front velocity reached up to 14 m day−1 in May 2015 and was at its lowest speed of ~1 m day−1 in October 2012. Mass flux via the main branch was strongly controlled by the seasonal and interannual fluctuations of its velocity. The west branch also exhibited seasonal velocity variations with comparably lower magnitudes. The role of subglacial hydrology on the ice velocities of Columbia Glacier is already known from the published field measurements during summers of 1987. Our observed variability in its ice velocities on a seasonal basis also suggest that they are primarily controlled by the seasonal transition of the subglacial drainage system from an inefficient to an efficient and channelized drainage networks. However, abrupt velocity increase events for short periods (2014–2015 and 2015–2016 at the main branch, and 2013–2014 at the west branch) appear to be associated with strong near-front thinning and frontal retreat. This needs further investigation on the role of other potential controlling mechanisms. On the technological side, this study demonstrates the potential of high-resolution X-band SAR missions with a short revisit interval to examine glaciological variables and controlling processes.

Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet.

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that the abrupt reduction in surface mass balance since about 1995 can be attributed largely to a coincident trend of decreasing summer cloud cover enhancing the melt-albedo feedback. Satellite observations show that, from 1995 to 2009, summer cloud cover decreased by 0.9 ± 0.3% per year. Model output indicates that the GrIS summer melt increases by 27 ± 13 gigatons (Gt) per percent reduction in summer cloud cover, principally because of the impact of increased shortwave radiation over the low albedo ablation zone. The observed reduction in cloud cover is strongly correlated with a state shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation promoting anticyclonic conditions in summer and suggests that the enhanced surface mass loss from the GrIS is driven by synoptic-scale changes in Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation.