Hypothetical Strategies Research Articles

The VIX Index and Volatility-Based Global Indexes and Trading Instruments - A Guide to Investment and Trading Features

During the past two decades, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX® Index), a key measure of investor sentiment and 30-day future volatility expectations, has generated much investor attention because of its unique and powerful features. The introduction of VIX futures in 2004, VIX options in 2006, and other volatility-related trading instruments provided traders and investors access to exchange-traded vehicles for taking long and short exposures to expected S&P 500 Index volatility for a particular time frame. Certain VIX-related tradable products may provide benefits when used as tools for tail-risk hedging, diversification, risk management, or alpha generation. Gauges of expected stock market volatility for various regions include the VIX Index (United States), AXVI Index (Australia), VHSI Index (Hong Kong), NVIX Index (India) and VSTOXX Index (Europe). All five of these volatility indexes had negative correlations with their related stock indexes price movements, and all five volatility indexes rose more than 50% in 2008. Although the five volatility indexes are not investable, investors can explore VIX-based benchmark indexes that show the performance of hypothetical investment strategies using VIX futures or options. Before investing in volatility-related products, investors should closely study the pricing, roll cost, and volatility features of the tradable products and read the applicable prospectuses and risk disclosure statements.

Pig farmers' willingness to pay for management strategies to reduce aggression between pigs.

When deciding whether to invest in an improvement to animal welfare, farmers must trade-off the relative costs and benefits. Despite the existence of effective solutions to many animal welfare issues, farmers’ willingness to pay for them is largely unknown. This study modelled pig farmers’ decisions to improve animal welfare using a discrete choice experiment focused on alleviating aggression between growing/finishing pigs at regrouping. Eighty-two UK and Irish pig farm owners and managers were asked to choose between hypothetical aggression control strategies described in terms of four attributes; installation cost, on-going cost, impact on skin lesions from aggression and impact on growth rate. If they did not like any of the strategies they could opt to keep their current farm practice. Systematic variations in product attributes allowed farmers’ preferences and willingness to pay to be estimated and latent class modelling accounted for heterogeneity in responses. The overall willingness to pay to reduce lesions was low at £0.06 per pig place (installation cost) and £0.01 per pig produced (running cost) for each 1% reduction in lesions. Results revealed three independent classes of farmers. Farmers in Class 1 were unlikely to regroup unfamiliar growing/finishing pigs, and thus were unwilling to adopt measures to reduce aggression at regrouping. Farmers in Classes 2 and 3 were willing to adopt measures providing certain pre-conditions were met. Farmers in Class 2 were motivated mainly by business goals, whilst farmers in Class 3 were motivated by both business and animal welfare goals, and were willing to pay the most to reduce aggression; £0.11 per pig place and £0.03 per pig produced for each 1% reduction in lesions. Farmers should not be considered a homogeneous group regarding the adoption of animal welfare innovations. Instead, campaigns should be targeted at subgroups according to their independent preferences and willingness to pay.

Acceptability and perceived feasibility of strategies to increase public transport use for physical activity gain - A mixed methods study.

Public transport (PT) users typically accumulate more physical activity (PA) than motor vehicle users. This mixed methods study aimed to determine acceptability and perceived effectiveness of strategies to increase bus use for PA gain in a regional Australian setting. In a 2017 online survey, Tasmanian adults (n=1091) rated the likelihood of increasing their bus use according to ten hypothetical strategies (fare-, incentives-, information- or infrastructure-based). Three focus groups and five interviews (n=31) included infrequent bus users from the survey to determine reasons for strategy preferences and potential impact on PA. The top three strategies in the survey, with supporting rationale from qualitative data, were: provision of real-time bus information ("…because I can better plan…"); bus-only lanes ("…it just speeds the whole thing up…") and employee incentives/rewards for example bus fare credits ("…it really comes down to money…"). Full-time students favoured cost-saving strategies most and residents in outer suburbs favoured infrastructure-based strategies most. Qualitative data indicated that potential for enhanced certainty, efficiency or cost-savings drove strategy preferences and some strategies may lead to PA gain (eg through the location of Park and Ride facilities). Real-time information, bus-only lanes and employee incentives/rewards appear most promising for increasing bus use in this population, but tailoring strategies may be required. Discrete PT enhancement strategies may result in PA gain. SO WHAT?: Increasing PA through transport behaviour has been underexplored. The potential for PA gain through greater PT use and discrete PT use enhancement strategies is an important public health consideration.

DEVEOPING AN IDEAL LEADERSHIP SUCCESSION MODEL FOR THE MALAYSIAN PUBLIC SERVICE

Leadership succession in the Malaysian Public Service’s higher management has been seen as one of the most important task for Jabatan Perkhidmatan Awam (JPA). This department acts as the centralized administrator for human resources for the whole of the Malaysian Public Service – excluding the Royal Malaysian Police (PDRM) and the Malaysian Armed Forces (ATM) – and determines the career path for all schemes under their purview, which includes officials of the Perkhidmatan Tadbir dan Diplomatik (PTD), the Pegawai Perkhidmatan Latihan dan Vokasional (PPLV) and the Pegawai Perkhidmatan Psikologi (PPPsi). This paper will review the hypothetical leadership succession strategies and any developed models in the Malaysian public sector, through various available literatures, guidelines and processes.

An examination of the effects of labor efficiency on the profitability of grass-based, seasonal-calving dairy farms

The seasonality of grass-based, seasonal-calving dairy systems results in disproportionately higher labor demands during the spring, when cows are calving, than in the remaining seasons. This study aimed to (1) examine the relationship between labor efficiency and profitability; (2) investigate strategies to reduce the hours worked per day by the farmer, family, and farm staff in the spring by having certain tasks outsourced; and (3) quantify the economic implications of those strategies. Data from an existing labor efficiency study on Irish dairy farms were used in conjunction with economic performance data from the farms. Tasks that required the highest level of farm labor per day in the spring were identified and hypothetical strategies to reduce the farm hours worked per day were examined. A stochastic budgetary simulation model was then used to examine the economic implications of employing these strategies and the effects of their use in conjunction with a proportionate increase in cow numbers that would leave the hours worked per day unchanged. The strategies were to use contractors to perform calf rearing, machinery work, or milking. Contracting out milking resulted in the greatest reduction in hours worked per day (5.6 h/d) followed by calf rearing (2.7 h/d) and machinery work (2 h/d). Reducing the hours worked per day by removing those tasks had slight (i.e., <5%) negative effects on profitability; however, maintaining the farm hours worked per day while utilizing the same strategies and increasing herd sizes resulted in profitable options. The most profitable scenario was for farms to increase herd size while contracting out milking.

A spatio-temporal individual-based network framework for West Nile virus in the USA: Spreading pattern of West Nile virus.

West Nile virus (WNV)—a mosquito-borne arbovirus—entered the USA through New York City in 1999 and spread to the contiguous USA within three years while transitioning from epidemic outbreaks to endemic transmission. The virus is transmitted by vector competent mosquitoes and maintained in the avian populations. WNV spatial distribution is mainly determined by the movement of residential and migratory avian populations. We developed an individual-level heterogeneous network framework across the USA with the goal of understanding the long-range spatial distribution of WNV. To this end, we proposed three distance dispersal kernels model: 1) exponential—short-range dispersal, 2) power-law—long-range dispersal in all directions, and 3) power-law biased by flyway direction —long-range dispersal only along established migratory routes. To select the appropriate dispersal kernel we used the human case data and adopted a model selection framework based on approximate Bayesian computation with sequential Monte Carlo sampling (ABC-SMC). From estimated parameters, we find that the power-law biased by flyway direction kernel is the best kernel to fit WNV human case data, supporting the hypothesis of long-range WNV transmission is mainly along the migratory bird flyways. Through extensive simulation from 2014 to 2016, we proposed and tested hypothetical mitigation strategies and found that mosquito population reduction in the infected states and neighboring states is potentially cost-effective.

Implementation Matters: Relaxing Constraints Can Improve the Potential Returns of Factor Strategies

Eligible investors seeking factor exposures may have a choice of different investment vehicles to implement an investment strategy, ranging from fully transparent, index-based exchange-traded funds to private funds or undertakings for collective investment in transferable securities. In this article, the authors assess the impact of constraints common to these investment vehicles through the lens of hypothetical equity momentum and value factor strategies. As constraints—leverage, trading frequency, and risk levels—on the factor strategies are relaxed, risk-adjusted potential returns may improve. Conversely, moving from an unconstrained implementation to a low-turnover, long-only implementation may decrease the Sharpe ratios of momentum and value strategies by as much as 60%.

Lifetime risk of common neurological diseases in the elderly population

ObjectiveTo quantify the burden of common neurological disease in older adults in terms of lifetime risks, including their co-occurrence and preventive potential, within a competing risk framework.MethodsWithin the prospective population-based...

Hypothetical Strategies to Reduce the Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Mobile Sources on the Orizaba Valley

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change established clear and solids conclusions on the 2013 report, it says that has been scientifically demonstrated with 95% of certainty, that human activities are the main cause of the global warming, observed since the middle of the XX century.&#x0D; &#x0D; The Orizaba Valley is a Mexican region, located at the geographic center of Veracruz State, having Orizaba City as the main demographic population surrounded by other municipalities, becoming the fourth metropolitan populated area of Veracruz State. This region has the third position on economic, historic and cultural relevance at Veracruz State, just after the Veracruz Port and Xalapa City. It was one of the main places with a vast economic growing during the Viceroyalty of the New Spain, being an obligatory passing route and resting place between Veracruz Port and Mexico City.&#x0D; &#x0D; This project estimates the magnitude of the Greenhouse Gas emissions coming from mobile sources at the Orizaba Valley. It includes the urban region of the municipalities of Ixtaczoquitlan, Orizaba, R&amp;iacute;o Blanco, Camerino de Mendoza and Nogales. The collected data was processed according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change methodology and it was possible to make the following projections: 1) One baseline scenario and 2) Three scenarios under hypothetical mitigation strategies that promise to achieve a reduction of GHG emission of 30 % from the year 2020 to 2050. Beyond this, also there is a significant reduction in fossil fuels consumption due to the efficient use of energy. All projections were made by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system software.&#x0D; &#x0D; In addition of the achievement on the GHG emissions reduction goal, it is possible to glimpse an economic recovery, if and only if, the decision makers of the governments decide to participate in the international trade of carbon market.

Evaluation of Proactive and Reactive Strategies for Polio Eradication Activities in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Only Pakistan and Afghanistan reported any polio cases caused by serotype 1 wild polioviruses (WPV1s) in 2017. With the dwindling cases in both countries and pressure to finish eradication with the least possible resources, a danger exists of inappropriate prioritization of efforts between the two countries and insufficient investment in the two countries to finish the job. We used an existing differential-equation-based poliovirus transmission and oral poliovirus (OPV) evolution model to simulate a proactive strategy to stop transmission, and different hypothetical reactive strategies that adapt the quality of supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) in response to observed polio cases in Pakistan and Afghanistan. To account for the delay in perception and adaptation, we related the coverage of the SIAs in high-risk, undervaccinated subpopulations to the perceived (i.e., smoothed) polio incidence. Continuation of the current frequency and quality of SIAs remains insufficient to eradicate WPV1 in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Proactive strategies that significantly improve and sustain SIA quality lead to WPV1 eradication and the prevention of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks. Reactive vaccination efforts that adapt moderately quickly and independently to changes in polio incidence in each country may succeed in WPV1 interruption after several cycles of outbreaks, or may interrupt WPV1 transmission in one country but subsequently import WPV1 from the other country or enable the emergence of cVDPV outbreaks. Reactive vaccination efforts that adapt independently and either more rapidly or more slowly to changes in polio incidence in each country may similarly fail to interrupt WPV1 transmission and result in oscillations of the incidence. Reactive strategies that divert resources to the country of highest priority may lead to alternating large outbreaks. Achieving WPV1 eradication and subsequent successful OPV cessation in Pakistan and Afghanistan requires proactive and sustained efforts to improve vaccination intensity in under-vaccinated subpopulations while maintaining high population immunity elsewhere.

Hydrodynamic trait coordination and cost–benefit trade‐offs throughout the isohydric–anisohydric continuum in trees

AbstractWhole‐plant hydraulic performance depends on the integrated function of trait complexes, such as embolism resistance, stomatal closure mechanisms, and root properties. The diversity of such traits produces a wide range of response strategies to both short‐term variation of environmental conditions and long‐term changes to climate and hydrological cycles. This study aims to assess the role of different emergent hydraulic trait combinations in trees' vulnerability to drought using a quantitative modelling framework. This modelling framework may be helpful in studying the influence of plant hydraulic traits independently. It will also be used to assess how different groups of traits interact to form viable hydraulic strategies in response to different environmental conditions.We use the advanced plant hydrodynamic model, finite‐difference ecosystem‐scale tree crown hydrodynamics model version 2, to resolve plant functional traits of roots, stems, and leaves and simulate the transpiration. We define a multidimensional hydraulic “strategy space” by considering a continuum of these traits to test the outcomes of different hypothetical strategies in response to environmental conditions as observed in Northern Michigan, USA. We evaluate the degree to which simulated trees suffer hydraulic failure due to cavitation or carbon deficiency in response to reduced stomatal conductance. Our results demonstrate how the relationship between plant hydraulic strategy and hydraulic safety margin emerges from trait combinations along different tissue levels. Our findings suggest that hydrodynamic models present an exciting new possibility to define and study plant traits and hydrodynamics.

A profile of humanity: the cultural signature of Earth's inhabitants beyond the atmosphere

AbstractThe eclectic range of artefacts and ‘messages’ we dispatch into the vast expanse of space may become one of the most enduring remnants of our present civilization, but how does his protracted legacy adequately document the plurality of societal values and common, cultural heritage on our heterogeneous world? For decades now, this rendition of the egalitarian principle has been explored by the Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence community in order to draft theoretical responses to ‘who speaks for Earth?’ for hypothetical extra-terrestrial communication strategies. However, besides the moral, ethical and democratic advancements made by this particular enterprise, there remains little practical exemplars of implementing this garnered knowledge into other experimental elements that could function as mutual emissaries of Earth; physical artefacts that could provide accessible details about our present world for future archaeological observations by our space-faring progeny, potential visiting extrasolar denizens or even for posterity. While some initiatives have been founded to investigate this enduring dilemma of humanity over the last half-century, there are very few comparative studies in regards to how these objects, time capsules and transmission events collectively disseminate content about the aggregate of our species and the Earth system it inhabits. This catalogue, assembled for extended study as part of theBeyond the Earth foundation, is intended as an initial, dialogic step towards evaluating such a ‘profile of humanity’. This investigation will endeavour to collate all cultural resources that can presently be garnered from spacecraft (non-mission orientated, cultural material that conveys an impression of Earth) and non-terrestrial transmissions (electromagnetic signals that are intentionally aimed off-world to embody humanities’ evolving, philosophical identity) in the expanse beyond our planetary borders in order to cross-analyse how we presently illustrate the diversity of our planet before, subsequently, deducing how we could appropriately depict our collective human civilization [and biosphere] within deep space and cosmic time.

A mathematical and numerical analysis of a compartmental model for a single strain dengue epidemic in the presence of vaccination

Dengue disease has presently emerged as an alarming public health concern of mounting significance with the unprecedented number of cases reported worldwide annually, especially from the tropics and subtropics. It is currently considered as the most critical vector borne viral disease in the world due to the acute health, social and economic issues that it causes in the endemic countries. Further, human mobility, climate change, rapid urbanization and public unawareness have led to a substantial dissemination of dengue in new geographical settings with explosive outbreaks. Also, the disease burden has aggravated due to the unavailability of specific clinical therapeutics and effective vaccines for the dengue disease. In such a context, this paper intends to investigate the dynamics of dengue disease in the presence of hypothetical vaccination strategies. Thus, we use a classical compartmental model with mathematical and numerical analyses in order to emphasize the importance of vaccination as an effective measure of disease control. We are hence of the belief that this paper will be a source of motivation for the medical scientists involved in the development of vaccine candidates for the dengue disease.

Optimal primary care management of clinical osteoarthritis and joint pain in older people: a mixed-methods programme of systematic reviews, observational and qualitative studies, and randomised controlled trials

BackgroundOsteoarthritis (OA) is the most common long-term condition managed in UK general practice. However, care is suboptimal despite evidence that primary care and community-based interventions can reduce OA pain and disability.ObjectivesThe overall aim was to improve primary care management of OA and the health of patients with OA. Four parallel linked workstreams aimed to (1) develop a health economic decision model for estimating the potential for cost-effective delivery of primary care OA interventions to improve population health, (2) develop and evaluate new health-care models for delivery of core treatments and support for self-management among primary care consulters with OA, and to investigate prioritisation and implementation of OA care among the public, patients, doctors, health-care professionals and NHS trusts, (3) determine the effectiveness of strategies to optimise specific components of core OA treatment using the example of exercise and (4) investigate the effect of interventions to tackle barriers to core OA treatment, using the example of comorbid anxiety and depression in persons with OA.Data sourcesThe North Staffordshire Osteoarthritis Project database, held by Keele University, was the source of data for secondary analyses in workstream 1.MethodsWorkstream 1 used meta-analysis and synthesis of published evidence about effectiveness of primary care treatments, combined with secondary analysis of existing longitudinal population-based cohort data, to identify predictors of poor long-term outcome (prognostic factors) and design a health economic decision model to estimate cost-effectiveness of different hypothetical strategies for implementing optimal primary care for patients with OA. Workstream 2 used mixed methods to (1) develop and test a ‘model OA consultation’ for primary care health-care professionals (qualitative interviews, consensus, training and evaluation) and (2) evaluate the combined effect of a computerised ‘pop-up’ guideline for general practitioners (GPs) in the consultation and implementing the model OA consultation on practice and patient outcomes (parallel group intervention study). Workstream 3 developed and investigated in a randomised controlled trial (RCT) how to optimise the effect of exercise in persons with knee OA by tailoring it to the individual and improving adherence. Workstream 4 developed and investigated in a cluster RCT the extent to which screening patients for comorbid anxiety and depression can improve OA outcomes. Public and patient involvement included proposal development, project steering and analysis. An OA forum involved public, patient, health professional, social care and researcher representatives to debate the results and formulate proposals for wider implementation and dissemination.ResultsThis programme provides evidence (1) that economic modelling can be used in OA to extrapolate findings of cost-effectiveness beyond the short-term outcomes of clinical trials, (2) about ways of implementing support for self-management and models of optimal primary care informed by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommendations, including the beneficial effects of training in a model OA consultation on GP behaviour and of pop-up screens in GP consultations on the quality of prescribing, (3) against adding enhanced interventions to current effective physiotherapy-led exercise for knee OA and (4) against screening for anxiety and depression in patients with musculoskeletal pain as an addition to current best practice for OA.ConclusionsImplementation of evidence-based care for patients with OA is feasible in general practice and has an immediate impact on improving the quality of care delivered to patients. However, improved levels of quality of care, changes to current best practice physiotherapy and successful introduction of psychological screening, as achieved by this programme, did not substantially reduce patients’ pain and disability. This poses important challenges for clinical practice and OA research.LimitationsThe key limitation in this work is the lack of improvement in patient-reported pain and disability despite clear evidence of enhanced delivery of evidence-based care.Future work recommendations(1) New thinking and research is needed into the achievable and desirable long-term goals of care for people with OA, (2) continuing investigation into the resources needed to properly implement clinical guidelines for management of OA as a long-term condition, such as regular monitoring to maintain exercise and physical activity and (3) new research to identify subgroups of patients with OA as a basis for stratified primary care including (i) those with good prognosis who can self-manage with minimal investigation or specialist treatment, (ii) those who will respond to, and benefit from, specific interventions in primary care, such as physiotherapy-led exercise, and (iii) develop research into effective identification and treatment of clinically important anxiety and depression in patients with OA and into the effects of pain management on psychological outcomes in patients with OA.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN06984617, ISRCTN93634563 and ISRCTN40721988.FundingThis project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme and will be published in full inProgramme Grants for Applied Research Programme; Vol. 6, No. 4. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Analyzing ecological restoration strategies for water and soil conservation.

The choice of areas for nature conservation involves the attempt to maximize the benefits, whether by carrying out an economic activity or by the provision of Ecosystem Services. Studies are needed to improve the understanding of the effect of the extent and position along the watershed of restored areas on soil and water conservation. This study aimed to understand how different restoration strategies might reflect in soil conservation and sediment retention. Using InVEST tool, sediment transport was simulated in a small 12 km2 watershed (Posses River, in Southeast Brazil), where one of first Brazilian Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) projects is being carried out, comparing different hypothetical restoration strategies. With 25% of restoration, sediment export decreased by 78% for riparian restoration, and 27% for the steepest slopes restoration. On the other hand, the decrease in soil loss was lower for riparian restoration, with a 16% decrease, while the steepest slopes restoration reduced it by 21%. This mismatch between the reduction of sediment export and soil loss was explained by the fact that forest not only reduces soil loss locally but also traps sediment arriving from the upper parts of the watershed. While the first mechanism is important to provide soil stability, decreasing the risk of landslip, and to maintain agricultural productivity, the second can improve water quality and decrease the risk of silting, with positive effects on the water reservoirs at the outlet of the watershed. This suggests that Riparian and the Steepest Slopes restoration strategies are complementary in the sense of preventing sediments from reaching the water bodies as well as protecting them at their origin (with the reduction of erosion), so it will be advisable to consider the two types of restoration.

Modelling the large-scale yellow fever outbreak in Luanda, Angola, and the impact of vaccination.

BackgroundYellow fever (YF), transmitted via bites of infected mosquitoes, is a life-threatening viral disease endemic to tropical and subtropical regions of Africa and South America. YF has largely been controlled by widespread national vaccination campaigns. Nevertheless, between December 2015 and August 2016, YF resurged in Angola, quickly spread and became the largest YF outbreak for the last 30 years. Recently, YF resurged again in Brazil (December 2016). Thus, there is an urgent need to gain better understanding of the transmission pattern of YF.ModelThe present study provides a refined mathematical model, combined with modern likelihood-based statistical inference techniques, to assess and reconstruct important epidemiological processes underlying Angola’s YF outbreak. This includes the outbreak’s attack rate, the reproduction number (), the role of the mosquito vector, the influence of climatic factors, and the unusual but noticeable appearance of two-waves in the YF outbreak. The model explores actual and hypothetical vaccination strategies, and the impacts of possible human reactive behaviors (e.g., response to media precautions).FindingsWhile there were 73 deaths reported over the study period, the model indicates that the vaccination campaign saved 5.1-fold more people from death and saved from illness 5.6-fold of the observed 941 cases. Delaying the availability of the vaccines further would have greatly worsened the epidemic in terms of increased cases and deaths. The analysis estimated a mean and an attack rate of 0.09-0.15% (proportion of population infected) over the whole period from December 2015 to August 2016. Our estimated lower and upper bounds of are in line with previous studies. Unusually, oscillated in a manner that was “delayed” with the reported deaths. High recent number of deaths were associated (followed) with periods of relatively low disease transmission and low , and vice-versa. The time-series of Luanda’s YF cases suggest the outbreak occurred in two waves, a feature that would have become far more prominent had there been no mass vaccination. The waves could possibly be due to protective reactive behavioral changes of the population affecting the mosquito population. The second wave could well be an outcome of the March-April rainfall patterns in the 2016 El Niño year by creating ideal conditions for the breeding of the mosquito vectors. The modelling framework is a powerful tool for studying future YF epidemic outbreaks, and provides a basis for future vaccination campaign evaluations.

Effect of application score strategy on interviews offered to postgraduate year 1 pharmacy residency applicants

ObjectivesResidency programs may need to spend a large amount of time on the application review process in order to invite the best candidates for interviews. By using a different scoring strategy, this process could be made more efficient while still resulting in selection of the most appropriate candidates to interview. The objective of this study was to explore hypothetical scoring strategies for past residency applicants and to determine the percentage of these applicants that would have received an interview offer compared with the program’s standard scoring strategy. MethodsTwo years of residency applications to a postgraduate year 1 (PGY1) program providing the majority of clinical experience in ambulatory care were analyzed. Four models were explored: 1) standard model (original method); 2) simplified model (derived from statistical methods); 3) intuition model (criteria thought to best exemplify program success); and 4) objective model (criteria easy to objectively record, e.g., grade point average). All 3 new models were compared with the standard model to determine the percentage of candidates who would have received an interview if their applications had been scored according to the new model. ResultsA total of 110 applications were reviewed (42 interviews offered). After a multivariable analysis, academics, leadership, interest in ambulatory care, and professionalism were included in the simplified model, which predicted 81% of the interviews offered through the standard model. The intuition and objective models predicted 71% and 48% of interviews offered through the standard model, respectively. ConclusionModels scoring only 4 of the initial 12 criteria would have likely predicted 71% to 81% of original interview offers. Residency programs should consider periodically reviewing their application review processes to determine areas for improved efficiency.

Strategies to Improve Management of Acute Watery Diarrhea during a Military Deployment: A Cost Effectiveness Analysis

.To inform policy and decision makers, a cost-effectiveness model was developed to predict the cost-effectiveness of implementing two hypothetical management strategies separately and concurrently on the mitigation of deployment-associated travelers’ diarrhea (TD) burden. The first management strategy aimed to increase the likelihood that a deployed service member with TD will seek medical care earlier in the disease course compared with current patterns; the second strategy aimed to optimize provider treatment practices through the implementation of a Department of Defense Clinical Practice Guideline. Outcome measures selected to compare management strategies were duty days lost averted (DDL-averted) and a cost effectiveness ratio (CER) of cost per DDL-averted (USD/DDL-averted). Increasing health care and by seeking it more often and earlier in the disease course as a stand-alone management strategy produced more DDL (worse) than the base case (up to 8,898 DDL-gained per year) at an increased cost to the Department of Defense (CER $193). Increasing provider use of an optimal evidence-based treatment algorithm through Clinical Practice Guidelines prevented 5,299 DDL per year with overall cost savings (CER −$74). A combination of both strategies produced the greatest gain in DDL-averted (6,887) with a modest cost increase (CER $118). The application of this model demonstrates that changes in TD management during deployment can be implemented to reduce DDL with likely favorable impacts on mission capability and individual health readiness. The hypothetical combination strategy evaluated prevents the most DDL compared with current practice and is associated with a modest cost increase.

Impact of reporting delays on profitability of front-running strategies against mutual funds

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate if there is any impact of reporting delays on profitability of front-running strategies against the mutual funds.Design/methodology/approachThe author studies if freshness of mutual fund holding information from public disclosures affects precision of flow-based front-running strategies against the funds and if the allowed 60-day reporting delay is able to protect the funds from these front-running activities against them.FindingsAssuming no reporting delay, the author finds that returns from hypothetical front-running strategies are significant, when these are based on the most recent holding information and are not significant, when based on relatively old holding information. Interestingly, these front-running returns appear to be mostly driven by anticipated forced buys by the mutual funds (rather than anticipated forced sales). The return from a front-running strategy long on anticipated forced buys is higher when it is based on relatively illiquid assets. The author also finds that return from a front-running strategy short on anticipated forced sales is significant, when it is based on illiquid assets from relatively old holding information.Practical implicationsHence, it appears that the allowed 60-day reporting delay is able to protect most of the funds from front-running activities against them, except for the funds holding illiquid assets from anticipated forced sales motivated front-running activities against them.Originality/valueThe paper addresses an interesting question, which has not been studied before – if freshness of fund holding information helps the front-running strategies against the funds and if the allowed reporting delay is effective in protecting the funds from these activities.

Potential savings in the diagnosis of vestibular schwannoma.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is used to screen patients at risk for vestibular schwannoma (VS). These MRIs are costly and have an extremely low yield; only 3% of patients in the screening population has an actual VS. It might be worthwhile to develop a test to predict VS and refer only a subset of all patients for MRI. To examine the potential savings of such a hypothetical diagnostic test before MRI. We built a decision analytical model of the diagnostic strategy of VS. Input was derived from literature and key opinion leaders. The current strategy was compared to hypothetical new strategies, assigning MRI to the following: (i) all patients with pathology, (ii) all patients with important pathology and (iii) only patients with VS. This resulted in potential cost savings for each strategy. We conducted a budget impact analysis to predict nationwide savings for the Netherlands and the United Kingdom (UK), and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty. Mean savings ranged from €256 (95%CI €250 - €262) or approximately US$284 (95%CI US$277 - US$291) per patient for strategy 1 to €293 (95%CI €290 - €296) or approximately US$325 (95%CI US$322 - US$328) per patient for strategy 3. Future diagnostic strategies can cost up to these amounts per patient and still be cost saving. Annually, for the Netherlands, €2.8 to €3.2 million could be saved and €10.8 to €12.3 million for the UK. The model shows that substantial savings could be generated if it is possible to further optimise the diagnosis of VS.