Hypothetical Market Research Articles

Assessing the Preservation of Parks and Natural Protected Areas: A Review of Contingent Valuation Studies

The existence of parks is particularly important and offers many benefits both to the environment and to humans. Parks are recreational spaces, which contribute to the improvement of the microclimate, reduce atmospheric pollution and protect biodiversity. Their importance for the urban environment is even greater because they offer pure oxygen to the city and people feel close to nature in them. The aim of this study is to review studies which took place globally as well as in Greece, relying on the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) for parks. The reason that this method is used is the valuation of non-market goods and services through the development of a hypothetical market. Additionally, a distinction is made among previous empirical studies depending on the nature of the parks and the country where the survey was conducted, while the disadvantages that must be considered from the use of Contingent Valuation Method are mentioned. According to the findings of the literature review, studies using Contingent Valuation in Greece, particularly in the case of urban parks, are limited. As far as we know, the valuation of existing urban parks has not yet been studied, so this could be a field for further research. The economic valuation of parks in a country like Greece, which suffered with the financial crisis, can lead to conclusions about the value that citizens attribute to parks and the identification of possible protest responses.

“Innovation Management Concept Support Entrepreneurship

SummaryResearch PhenomenonThe world today is characterized by the third millennium, globalization, technological development, intense competition and the hypothetical market, there will be rapid changes in all areas of life, especially economic areas, and in light of these data the concept of entrepreneurship has emerged, so many concepts have been generated related to In the term leadership and its use to mean innovation, creativity, invention, discovery, new, unusual thing, something full of power and activity, or innovation, or risk tolerance. In particular.. Research ProblemThe problem of research is that traditional labors of all kinds, whether small or large, are interested in focusing on the creativity of management, where they act in creative ways to turn material and human resources into supporting the economy of the enterprise. While entrepreneurship needs another type of management, namely, creative management, which contributes a great deal to supporting entrepreneurship activities and achieving its goals, especially at the beginning of the implementation of the entrepreneurship project.. Research Objective Reveal the role of the concept of creative management in supporting entrepreneurship Research Methodology The research is based on the inductive approach through which the issue of research can be explained and revealed the philosophy of creative management and its impact on the concept of entrepreneurship Research plan The research plan includes a set of integrated phases of the first stage, the survey and information gathering phase: at this stage the available parts of knowledge on the subject of the research are collected, the most important

A Simple Macroeconomic Model of Decentralized Emission Markets Based on the Solow Growth Model

As technology revolutionizes the methods of both production and communication, economists have to respond to new market structures and efficiencies, and the controversial concept of decentralization emerging in recent decades should also be examined in terms of its capacity to induce structural changes in the economy. This paper takes look at one specific market of interest and models the decentralization of a hypothetical emission quota market with the inclusion of households though automated auctions, in order to provide a preliminary analysis of how the redistribution of emission quotas would impact short-run equilibrium in this market and long-run growths; Given the endogenous dynamics, we would also examine the effects of exogenous technological shocks, For the purpose and scope of this paper, a simple mathematical formulation based on the Solow growth model as well as certain strong assumptions derived from economic intuitions is established, aiming to provide a more quantitative illustration of the effects from decentralization on such a system.

Fair Value Accounting, Financial Stability and the Global Financial Crisis

When analysing the GFC and other crisis, it is important to identify the root cause(s), trigger(s) and amplifier(s). Crisis experience suggests that there is almost always a build-up period facilitated by one or more root causes. A set of root causes and amplifiers are needed for a market disruption as severe as GFC to come to existence. Without these, market disruption caused by trigger event is highly likely to be contained. GFC was a multifaceted disruption; it had various components which contributed to the build-up of the crisis and the resulting contagion. It was a reflection of structural flaws in the financial system, mainly in US. Often-quoted issues like excessive use of leverage, securitization, derivative markets and credit ratings are mostly a result of these structural flaws in the financial system. Problems relating to lack or lag of regulation and inadequate supervision also had a substantial role. FVA may have acted as an amplifier during the GFC. However, if any, its impact was limited. FVA has some serious flaws, like hypothetical market participant and her hypothetical assumptions, but it should be kept in mind that FVA standards are more of a strong guidance, not a straightforward recipe.

Kelly Criterion, State Price Density Equilibrium and Bayesian Statistics

This paper considers multiple market agents who have distinct distributional opinions about the state price density. Different opinions can be contested on a hypothetical market that trades Arrow-Debreu securities. We focus on the situation when the agents are maximizing logarithmic utility as this generalizes the Kelly criterion to multiple and infinite number of outcomes. We determine analytically the optimal volumes for the Arrow-Debreu securities to be traded and show that the agent's increase of the expected utility corresponds to the relative entropy between her and the market distributions also known as a Kullback-Leibler divergence. The distributional opinions reach an equilibrium in the form of the linear mixture of the distributions. We show that when the the result of the outcome is observed, the profit and loss from trading updates agents' bankrolls in a Bayesian fashion. We extend these results to exponential and power utility functions.

INDIA IN THE COMING ‘CLIMATE G2’?

China and the United States are the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, making them pivotal players in global climate negotiations. Within the coming decade, however, India is set to become the most important counterpart to the United States, as it overtakes China as the country with the most at stake depending on the type of global burden-sharing agreements reached, thus becoming a member of the ‘Climate G2’. We create a hypothetical global carbon market based on modelling emissions reduction commitments across countries and regions relative to their marginal abatement costs. We then analyse net financial flows across a wide range of burden-sharing agreements, from pure ‘grandfathering’ based on current emissions to equal-per-capita allocation. Among the four largest players – the United States, the EU-27, China, and India – it is China that would currently be the largest net seller of emissions allowances in all but the grandfathered scenario. The United States would be the largest net buyer. However, India is poised to take China’s position by around 2030. That leaves the United States and India as the two major countries with most to gain and lose, depending on the type of climate deal reached.

Valuation of Ecosystem Services & Benefits of Son Beel Wetland in Assam, India: A Case Study of Natural Solutions to Climate Change & Water

Valuation of Ecosystem Services & Benefits of Son Beel Wetland in Assam, India: A Case Study of Natural Solutions to Climate Change & Water

Trading off positive and negative service changes in childcare: a choice experiment using a latent class modelling approach

ABSTRACTTheoretically, the choice of childcare mode should be influenced by the quality of the childcare attributes. However, such preference relations have been difficult to identify in past studies. One reason lies in the properties of the data collected, such as insufficient variation or strong correlation in the childcare qualities. To make a formal test of parent preferences for childcare qualities, we apply a choice experiment framework, construct a hypothetical market for childcare and ask 1,324 parents to act on the market. The results indicate that parents react positively and negatively to better and poorer childcare qualities, respectively. The results also indicate that the preferences are subject to substantial heterogeneity and that costs of losses in qualities are perceived as being far greater than the corresponding benefits of improvements.

Local Residents' Perceptions for Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of Fenghe River Watershed.

To make environmental management decisions more executive and targeted, it is essential for decision-making to include local residents’ perceptions and preferences for ecosystem services (ES) and biodiversity (BD). This study conducted a questionnaire survey with 386 local residents to explore social perceptions for ES and BD in the Fenghe River watershed. ES contain food from agriculture (AGR), food from livestock (LIV), fresh water (FW), air purification (AP), water purification (WP), water retention (WR), soil retention (SR), aesthetics (AES), recreation (RE), and spirit (SP) in this study. Ranking and Likert scales are combined to identify residents’ preferences for ES and BD. The hypothetical market method is used to identify the willingness to pay for BD and ES. Independent sample T-test, one-way ANOVA, and Spearman correlation are used to analyze preference heterogeneity. The results show that: (1) residents prefer WP, AP, AGR, and FW; (2) 51.3% of respondents are willing to pay a fee for improving ES while 48.7% of respondents are unwilling to pay; (3) residents’ personal and residential factors affect preference heterogeneity. Last, we put forward three management suggestions on controlling environmental pollution, improving residents’ awareness of ES, and establishing a multi-channel fund based on government financial resources for improving ES in the Fenghe River watershed. Integrating stakeholders’ perceptions for ES into decision-making can promote the sustainable development in Fenghe River watershed.

Impact of different weather years on the design of hydrogen supply pathways for transport needs

Renewable energy sources (RES) will play a crucial role in future sustainable energy systems. In scenarios analyzing future energy system designs, a detailed spatial and temporal representation of renewable-based electricity generation is essential. For this, sufficiently representative weather data are required. Most analyses performed in this context use the historical data of either one specific reference year or an aggregation of multiple years. In contrast, this study analyzes the impact of different weather years based on historical weather data from 1980 through 2016 in accordance with the design of an exemplary future energy system. This exemplary energy system consists of on- and offshore wind energy for power-to-hydrogen via electrolysis, including hydrogen pipeline transport for most southwestern European countries. The assumed hydrogen demand for transportation needs represents a hypothetical future market penetration for fuel cell-electric vehicles of 75%. An optimization framework is used in order to evaluate the resulting system design with the objective function of minimizing the total annual cost (TAC) of the system. For each historical weather year, the applied optimization model determines the required capacities and operation of wind power plants, electrolyzers, storage technologies and hydrogen pipelines to meet the assumed future hydrogen demand in a highly spatially- and temporally-detailed manner, as well as the TAC of the system. Following that, the results of every individual year are compared in terms of installed capacities, overall electricity generation and connection to the transmission network, as well as the cost of these components within each region. The results reveal how sensitive the final design of the exemplary system is to the choice of the weather year. For example, the TAC of the system changes by up to 20% across two consecutive weather years. Furthermore, significant variation in the optimization results regarding installed capacities per region with respect to the choice of weather years can be observed.

Utility Based Model Selection and Model Averaging

This paper presents a novel approach to model selection and model averaging based on economic theory. We study model prediction in the form of a distributional opinion about a random variable X. We show how to test this prediction against alternative views. Different model opinions can be traded on a hypothetical market that trades their differences. Using a utility maximization technique, we describe such a market for any general random variable X and any utility function U. We specify the optimal behavior of agents and the total market that aggregates all available opinions and show that a correct distributional opinion realizes profit in expectation against any other opinion, giving a novel technique for model selection. Analytical solutions are available for random variables from the exponential family. We determine the distribution corresponding to the aggregated view of all available opinions, giving a novel technique for model averaging.

Forecasting plausible scenarios and losses in interest rate targeting using mathematical optimization

This study proposes a mathematical optimization model for simultaneously forecasting plausible market scenarios and portfolio losses. Interest rates, volatilities and correlation coefficients can be modeled by the DCC-GARCH. A constraint condition is set by the Mahalanobis distance for deciding an acceptable range of change in interest rates. An objective function is set as a hypothetical market portfolio loss from delta, gamma and vega. The mathematical optimization model becomes a nonlinear programming problem for which it is difficult to find appropriate solutions. Therefore, the study introduces an original heuristic approach for preventing the signs of solutions from unintentionally becoming inverse. The study finds that, compared to a stressful scenario in Japan, the forecasting scenarios and losses are plausible.

Practical Applications of Why Invest in Private Equity? A Comparison of Private Equity and Stock Market Returns

Practical Applications Summary In Why Invest in Private Equity? A Comparison of Private Equity and Stock Market Returns from the Summer 2019 issue of The Journal of Alternative Investments, authors Kevin Marchel and Garen Markarian (of the WHU–Otto Beisheim School of Management in Vallendar, Germany) demonstrate that some stock market investments can produce earnings nearly as high as those of private equity (PE), at a lower cost. PE is recognized as offering superior annual investment performance, but it is costly and illiquid because investors must pay fees, share profits, and lock in their money for at least five years. The authors constructed five types of hypothetical stock market portfolios and analyzed performance data from 1965 to 2015 to determine how the portfolios would have performed. They found that a levered “All Stocks” portfolio (that is, a partially debt-financed portfolio of all stocks available on the market) produced annual returns of 13.2% over the 50-year period—just under PE’s annual return of 14.2%—and outperformed PE during bull markets. These findings offer new possibilities for investors, who may be able to realize earnings on par with PE without having to pay extra fees or lock up their money for 5 to 10 years. TOPICS:Private equity, security analysis and valuation, performance measurement

Young adult dual combusted cigarette and e-cigarette users’ anticipated responses to hypothetical e-cigarette market restrictions

Introduction: The aim of this exploratory study was to assess young adult dual e-cigarette (EC) and combusted cigarette (CC) users’ anticipated responses to hypothetical market restrictions regarding key EC characteristics. Methods: Data came from 240 young adult dual EC and CC users recruited via Amazon Mechanical Turk in June 2017. Descriptive statistics were used to report sociodemographic, CC smoking, and EC use characteristics. McNemar’s chi-square tests and chi-square tests were used to assess differences between groups in terms of anticipated responses to hypothetical EC market restrictions. Results: Hypothetical regulations resulted in reported intentions to reduce EC use and increase CC use; the greatest impact was found for restrictions regarding e-liquid nicotine content, followed by flavor and ability to modify EC devices. Moreover, individuals reporting use of flavored e-liquid, high nicotine content e-liquid, and customizable EC were most likely to report intentions to reduce EC use and increase CC use. Conclusions: This work provides preliminary evidence that restrictive regulations regarding key EC characteristics may increase intentions to increase CC use among young adult dual EC and CC users.

Data Documentation for the German Electricity Market Used for the Calibration of the GATE Model - NDP 2025 (Version 2015)

In this data documentation, we provide detailed information on the data that is used in order to calibrate the GATE model. Since we are looking at the hypothetical German electricity market in 2035 and the resulting investment incentives, we have to select all exogenous parameters based on future forecasts for this period. We consider the German market area since excellent data are available from the political processes that accompany the network expansion planning procedure. In order to ensure a high degree of consistency of the exogenous parameters - and in order to allow comparisons with other forecasts for that market area - we predominantly use input parameters from the Network Development Plan Electricity (NDP) which is the official basis for network expansion planning in Germany. Hereby, we mainly rely on the NDP 2025, where network expansion required until 2025 is determined, in its 2015 version.

Willingness to Pay to Overcome Pollution in Tapak River, Semarang

This study aims to analyze the level of Willingness to Pay of the community around TapakTugurejo Village, TuguSubdistrict, Semarang City in pollution prevention efforts on the Tapak River. This study offers a water purification model with the slow sands filtration method to improve water quality on the Tapak River. The analysis used was hypothetical market, Contingent Valuation Method (CVM), and multiple linear regression analysis to determine the Willingness to Pay relationship with other influencing factors, such as income, education, and age. Data was obtained from 30 respondents who were residents in RW04 TapakTugurejo Village, Semarang. Sample collection used in this study was the strategic random sample method. Hypothetical Market Value of respondents determines the willingness to pay for river pollution prevention efforts. The results found that the average cost of willingness to pay (WTP) of respondents for river pollution prevention activities from 30 respondents was Rp. 14,000.00. The total cost of WTP per year must be paid by the community from the loss of mangroves in the Tugurejo Village with a population of 6,941 people, was Rp 97,174,000.00.

Modeling optimal long-term investment strategies of hybrid wind-thermal companies in restructured power market

In this paper, a novel framework for the estimation of optimal investment strategies for combined wind-thermal companies is proposed. The medium-term restructured power market was simulated by considering the stochastic and rational uncertainties, the wind uncertainty was evaluated based on a data mining technique, and the electricity demand and fuel price were simulated using the Monte Carlo method. The Cournot game concept was used to determine the Nash equilibrium for each state and stage of the stochastic dynamic programming (DP). Furthermore, the long-term stochastic uncertainties were modeled based on the Markov chain process. The long-term optimal investment strategies were then solved for combined wind-thermal investors based on the semi-definite programming (SDP) technique. Finally, the proposed framework was implemented in the hypothetical restructured power market using the IEEE reliability test system (RTS). The conducted case study confirmed that this framework provides robust decisions and precise information about the restructured power market for combined wind-thermal investors.

The Potential for Nitrogen Abatement Trading in Agriculture: A Hypothetical Market Experiment

AbstractThe effectiveness of nitrogen abatement trading as a policy measure relies on both heterogeneity in costs and environmental effectiveness across landscapes. Cost‐efficient implementation may therefore critically depend on spatial distributions of farm and farmer characteristics in water catchments. We use a spatially specific hypothetical market experiment to analyse the likelihood of farmers’ enrolment into nitrogen abatement trading contracts, and derive demand and supply functions for farmers’ nitrogen abatement. We find that farm characteristics influence both the decision whether to supply or purchase nitrogen abatement, as well as the amounts being traded. The derived demand and supply functions for farmers’ N abatement, using hypothetical market experiment data, can be used to reveal the variability in costs of abatement within a market. This provides valuable information to test potential trading schemes ex ante, to evaluate potential economic gains from policy implementation.

The Fair Market Value Standard’s Competitive Hypothetical Market Structure: Substantive Implications for Appraisal Practice

A substantive distinction between the Fair Market Value Standard’s (FMVS) Hypothetical Marketplace and the real-world marketplace, for inactively-traded assets, must exist, else the court could calculate real-world market value instead of the more onerous abstract, hypothetical Fair Market Value (FMV). The appraisal community has exhibited, for years, a reluctance to acknowledge that substantive distinction, yet who can legitimately address/analyze/litigate the fact of FMV without, first, objectively clarifying the distinct nature of the Hypothetical Marketplace? There is an absolute “necessity of a fairly precise definition of value as a prerequisite to the intelligent discussion of evidence” of value (Bonbright 1937). It is of fundamental relevance to all appraisals performed under the FMVS, and, contrary to prevalent appraisal practice and legal precedent, that substantive distinction has been with us — in Revenue Ruling 59-60 — since 1959. Though FMV determinations continue to be unbounded, in practice, by a well-defined market structure, we readily ascertain — through straightforward application of Microeconomics — the Hypothetical Marketplace is competitive. Competitive market price, generated therein, equals FMV (per share). FMV cannot be divorced from the underlying competitive market structure that establishes it.

Dynamic Scoring: Probabilistic Model Selection Based on Utility Maximization.

We propose a novel approach of model selection for probability estimates that may be applied in time evolving setting. Specifically, we show that any discrepancy between different probability estimates opens a possibility to compare them by trading on a hypothetical betting market that trades probabilities. We describe the mechanism of such a market, where agents maximize some utility function which determines the optimal trading volume for given odds. This procedure produces supply and demand functions, that determine the size of the bet as a function of a trading probability. These functions are closed form for the choice of logarithmic and exponential utility functions. Having two probability estimates and the corresponding supply and demand functions, the trade matching these estimates happens at the intersection of the supply and demand functions. We show that an agent using correct probabilities will realize a profit in expectation when trading against any other set of probabilities. The expected profit realized by the correct view of the market probabilities can be used as a measure of information in terms of statistical divergence.