Hypothetical Implementation Research Articles

Tidal current power in Capalulu strait, North Maluku: A feasibility study

The Indonesian government has set goals for increasing the use of renewable energy in the coming years. Currently, Indonesia relies heavily on non-renewable energy sources, which poses a threat to the environment due to the country's growing energy needs. This study aims to assess the potential for developing a tidal power plant in Capalulu Strait, North Maluku. Using hydrodynamic modelling, the study identified two potential locations at coordinates 1.877°S – 125.328°E (Capa-2) and 1.863°S – 125.323°E (Capa-4) which were selected for having median current speeds exceeding 1.8 m/s and maximum current speeds exceeding 3.5 m/s. The study tested a hypothetical implementation of KHPS Gen5 instrument(s) by Verdant Power, a 5 m diameter turbine with a rated nominal power of 37 kW and a maximum rated power of 56 kW. A power plant layout was designed to be placed at Capa-2 and Capa-4, each location accommodating 45 turbines. The development of this power plant is estimated to produce up to 22 GWh per year. Financial analysis resulted in a LCOE of IDR 5,930/kWh. However, this price is still high compared to the national electricity tariff of IDR 1,027.70/kWh. Variations in the number of turbines also may not result in a lower LCOE than the national tariff. Nevertheless, the estimated cost of generating electricity is still competitive compared to diesel, which is around IDR 5,804/kWh.

Potential impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy's Income Stabilisation Tool on farmers' incomes and crop diversity: A French case study

AbstractThis paper analyses the potential impacts of a hypothetical implementation of the Income Stabilisation Tool (IST) in France for the field crops sector. The IST is a risk management tool available within the 2014–2020 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to support farmers facing a severe drop in their incomes. This analysis was conducted using a farm‐level model relying on expected utility theory and based on positive mathematical programming with risk. The model was applied to a sample of 1375 field crop farms in France derived from Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) data. Simulation results show that the uptake rate of the tool is relatively low, less than 37% in all scenarios. It is strongly dependent on CAP public support and on how much premium farmers have to pay. Highest uptake rates are observed in farms specialising in Other Field Crops, such as potatoes, pulses and sugar beet, and farms located in regions highly exposed to climatic risks. Previous experience with insurance favours the acceptance of the IST. Model results also show that the IST improves adopters' income and reduces income inequality. However, its impacts on crop diversity, measured by the Shannon index, are negative.

Gender differences in achievement, behavior, and STEM interest among learners using Minecraft

In this paper, we analyze how male and female learners differ in their in-game behaviors, knowledge assessment outcomes, and STEM interest using the What-If Hypothetical Implementations using Minecraft (WHIMC). We also investigate how male and female learners’ self-reported levels of frustration and boredom relate to these outcomes. We examine in-game data, out-of-game assessment data, self-reported frustration and boredom, and results of the STEM interest questionnaire (SIQ) from 175 Grade 8 learners from a school in the Philippines. We found that male learners tend to explore more than female learners. Both genders learn more through more exploration, making more observations, and completing tasks, but only female learners benefit from having more idle time. Male learners had a higher increase in STEM interest compared to female learners, while there is no significant difference in assessment scores between the genders. This study also found that boredom and frustration have a negative impact on academic outcomes, behavior, and STEM interest, especially among female learners. Bored female learners tend to do less well on post-game assessments, explore less, and make fewer observations. Frustrated female learners tend to not complete the task. Female learners who expressed frustration or boredom tend to have a decreased interest in SIQ in the Interest category after playing WHIMC.

Blaming the Victim, the Bystander, the Perpetrator, or the Institution: Student Allocation of Responsibility for Sexual Assault when Programming Hypothetically Varies

ABSTRACT Guided by theories of socialization and just policy theory, we explore how students allocate blame when sexual assault prevention programming hypothetically varies, net of the effects of evaluators’ traits. Using a survey instrument containing a series of vignettes, we ask whether university students’ (N = 254) perceptions of responsibility attributed to victims, perpetrators, bystanders, and university administrators varies by hypothetical program trainee and also by the hypothetical implementation of any program versus no program. Findings indicate that students allocate more blame to bystanders and perpetrators when hypothetical programming includes bystander training but that programs that train victims are not associated with increased victim blaming. Administrators are blamed less when bystander intervention is included in programming. However, compared to when no training is hypothetically implemented, students allocate more blame to victims and bystanders when any programming is present and less to administrators. Among respondent-level controls, victim blaming is consistently predicted by evaluators’ rape myth acceptance. Implications for future work, theoretical development, and policy are discussed.

Evaporative Cooling Does Not Prevent Vertical Dispersion of Effervescent Seawater Aerosol for Brightening Clouds.

Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is a potential intervention to mitigate the effects of climate change by increasing the reflectance of low-level maritime clouds, including those over the Great Barrier Reef. The technique involves dispersing a plume of submicrometer seawater droplets over the ocean, which evaporate, generating nanosized sea-salt aerosols (SSAs) that disperse through the atmosphere with some fraction incorporated into clouds. Droplet evaporation, which occurs in the immediate vicinity (meters to tens of meters) of the source, has been theorized to produce a negatively buoyant plume hindering the mixing of the sea-salt aerosol to cloud height and compromising the effectiveness of MCB. We characterized in situ for the first time the nearfield aerosol dispersion from a point source of atomized seawater produced using the effervescent technique. We observed consistent vertical mixing of the plume up to 150 ± 5 m height at 1 km downwind. The extent of vertical dispersion was influenced by wind velocity and atmospheric stability. We found no evidence that negative buoyancy due to the evaporation of the 0.068 kg/s water fraction significantly suppressed vertical mixing. Our results can be attributed to the small droplet sizes generated by the effervescent spray technology and associated low flow rates required to generate around 1014 droplets s-1. We estimate that, for a hypothetical implementation producing up to 1016 s-1 similarly sized SSAs, evaporative cooling is unlikely to significantly suppress the vertical dispersion of aerosol for MCB.

An integrated vertiport placement model considering vehicle sizing and queuing: A case study in London

The increasing level of congestion and infrastructure costs in cities have created a need for more intelligent and flexible transport systems. Urban Air Mobility (UAM) introduces the third dimension to intra-urban transport at a minimal infrastructure cost, bypassing congestion and providing reliable travel times to users through the provision of air passenger transportation. The performance of UAM systems is highly dependent on vertiport locations, vehicle sizing and infrastructure specifications, which themselves are intrinsically linked. This study takes a holistic approach to UAM network optimisation by considering the inter-relatedness of these decisions in a three-stage algorithm. In the first stage, a linear vertiport placement model with vehicle sizing constraints is developed to determine the optimal vertiport configuration while considering eVTOL performance. The vertiport configuration serves to determine the operational requirements of the aircraft and are incorporated in the vehicle sizing models. The resulting network configuration and vehicle sizing constraints are used as inputs in the infrastructure model, which utilises open network theory to determine the service rate requirements and the allowed loiter and waiting times based on the number of take-off, landing, and charging pads at each vertiport. These stages are executed sequentially through a feedback mechanism, which balances the infrastructure, operational costs as well as passenger waiting times. The algorithm optimises the profitability of the UAM network ensuring all operational constraints are satisfied. A case study based on the hypothetical implementation of UAM in the city of London is presented using Rolling Origin and Destination Survey data to estimate demand patterns. Our results suggest that ignoring vehicle sizing and infrastructure modelling in the network optimisation stage results in infeasible UAM networks. Furthermore, reducing waiting times and loiter times are critical to reduce operational costs of the UAM network, with all optimal configurations yielding waiting times below 5% of the total flight time. The proposed method can be used to plan future UAM developments whilst ensuring operational viability.

The Costs of Implementing a Conversation Aid for Uterine Fibroids in Multiple Health Care Settings.

Health care organizations considering adopting a conversation aid (CA), a type of patient decision aid innovation, need information about the costs of implementation. The aims of this study were to: (1) calculate the costs of introducing a CA in a study of supported implementation in 5 gynecologic settings that manage individuals diagnosed with uterine fibroids and (2) estimate the potential costs of future clinical implementation efforts in hypothetical settings. We used time-driven activity-based costing to estimate the costs of CA implementation at multiple steps: integration with an electronic health record, preimplementation, implementation, and sustainability. We then estimated costs for 2 disparate hypothetical implementation scenarios. We conducted semistructured interviews with participants and examined internal documentation. We interviewed 41 individuals, analyzed 51 documents and 100 emails. Overall total implementation costs over ∼36 months of activities varied significantly across the 5 settings, ranging from $14,157 to $69,134. Factors influencing costs included size/complexity of the setting, urban/rural location, practice culture, and capacity to automate patient identification. Initial investments were substantial, comprising mostly personnel time. Settings that embedded CA use into standard workflows and automated identification of appropriate patients had the lowest initial investment and sustainability costs. Our estimates of the costs of sustaining implementation were much lower than initial investments and mostly attributable to CA subscription fees. Initiation and implementation of the interventions require significant personnel effort. Ongoing costs to maintain use are much lower and are a small fraction of overall organizational operating costs.

Modeling risks in marine protected areas: Mapping of habitats, biodiversity, and cultural ecosystem services in the southernmost atlantic coral reef

Marine Protected Area (MPA) is a fundamental strategy for the maintenance of ocean ecological processes worldwide and, consequently, their associated ecosystem services. Nevertheless, the quality of the services provided by MPAs, including cultural services such as recreational activities, depends on the effective management of marine habitats and biodiversity. Here, we performed an ecosystemic assessment in reef environments within a subtropical MPA, modeling the potential risks for their habitats and their recreational activities. The Queimada Grande Island (QGI), southeastern Brazil, was used as the model area since this island encompasses a unique and irreplaceable marine habitat, the Southernmost Atlantic coral reef. We firstly assessed and mapped the habitats, the biodiversity, and the recreational activities associated with QGI reefs. Next, we considered different scenarios of management for the modeling risks across the study area. We found that the coral reef and its adjacent habitats, such as the rhodolith bed, make the sheltered face of the island an important area for the provision of the cultural ecosystem services and overlapping uses such as onboard recreational fishing, spearfishing, and recreational diving. This area was also evaluated as the one under the highest risk of impact, considering the current scenario of management. The most successful scenario modeling to reduce these risks was the hypothetical implementation of a 66% reduction of all activities over all QGI habitats. Despite that, the scenario simulating the application of the regulations present in the MPA management plan was enough to reduce almost half the maximum risk value. Therefore, we concluded that to provide a balance among conservation, uses, and the local economy, the application of these regulations is the better management scenario modeled for the study area. Such results provided useful information and tools for local management and decision-making in this singular marine environment, also being an example for mapping ecosystem services and modeling risks in MPAs worldwide.

RWD146 Multidimensional Analysis of the Implementation and Impact of Digital Twins in Healthcare

Health Digital Twins (HDT) are virtual representations of patients that serve as computational models for testing diagnostic and prognostic algorithms. HDTs are generally multidimensional and represent a patient population of a determined health ecosystem. We sought to assess their hypothetical implementation across the real-world pathway of care.

Using Minecraft to cultivate student interest in STEM

Due to the popularity and flexibility of Minecraft, educators have used this game to develop instructional materials and activities to cultivate student interests in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). One example of such an initiative is the What-If Hypothetical Implementations in Minecraft (WHIMC) project of the University of Illinois Urbana Champaign. The study reported in this paper describes a WHIMC deployment in the Philippines and the effects this deployment had on student STEM interest. The study used quantitative and qualitative methods to determine the effect of WHIMC on the STEM interest of Filipino students. We performed quantitative analysis of the pre- and post-STEM Interest Questionnaire (SIQ) ratings and Game Experience Questionnaire (GEQ) ratings of the high- and low-performers to determine the effect of using WHIMC in the students’ STEM interest and the difference between the game experience of high- and low-performers, respectively. Qualitative analysis of the answers to the open-ended questions about the attributes of the module was also conducted to determine the relationship between the module attributes and student performance. The analysis of the aggregated SIQ ratings before and after using the WHIMC-based modules revealed only a minimal effect on the STEM interests of the students. However, there was a significant effect in the Choice Actions construct, which implies that students recognize the importance of studying hard if they want to pursue STEM-related careers. Further, the analysis of the overall GEQ of high-performers and low-performers also revealed no significant difference. Although no significant difference was observed in the overall GEQ, high-performers had significantly higher GEQ ratings in the Immersion dimension. This result suggested that high-performers had a more positive, engaging, and enjoyable learning experience. Moreover, the findings on the favorite module attributes suggested that students perform better in the out-of-game assessments when they like all the module attributes. This implies that students must be engaged in the game and learning task aside from being interested in the learning topic to have better assessment scores. The study also showed that open-ended learning environments coupled with tasks that demand exploration, observation, and higher-ordered thinking are demanding even on high-performers.

Music, Art, Machine Learning, and Standardization

AbstractThis paper explores current and hypothetical implementations of machine learning in the creation and marketing of cultural commodities such as music. Building on Adorno and Horkheimer’s critique of the culture industry, this article considers the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence as a force for stylistic standardization and further consolidation of economic power in music and art.

UMA RENDA BÁSICA UNIVERSAL PARA O BRASIL: EFEITOS FISCAIS E DISTRIBUTIVOS DE ESQUEMAS AALTERNATIVOS

ABSTRACT The Covid-19 pandemic outbreak has led to an increasing interest in universal basic income (UBI) proposals, as it exposed the inadequacy of traditional welfare systems to provide basic financial security to a large share of the population. In this paper, we use a static tax-benefit microsimulation model to analyse the fiscal and distributional effects of the hypothetical implementation in Brazil of alternative UBI schemes that partially replace the existing tax-transfer system. The results indicate that introducing a UBI/Flat Tax system in the country could be both extremely effective in reducing poverty and inequality and economically viable.

Optimizing space cooling of a nearly zero energy building via model predictive control: Energy cost vs comfort

The space conditioning of buildings is liable for more than 10 % of World final energy uses and related CO2-eq emissions. Such share must be drastically reduced to pursue sustainability by optimizing both energy design and devices control. In this frame, space cooling is assuming an increasing weight owing to climate change. Accordingly, this study applies a simulation- and optimization-based framework for the model predictive control (MPC) of space cooling systems. The case study is a nearly zero energy building located in Benevento – Southern Italy, Mediterranean climate – featuring an efficient air-source multi-split system for cooling. The framework is envisioned to provide optimal values of setpoint temperatures on a day-ahead planning horizon to minimize energy cost and thermal discomfort, based on weather forecasts. Accordingly, a Pareto multi-objective approach is applied considering different discomfort indicators to compare the Fanger theory with the adaptive one of ASHRAE 55. The optimization problem is solved by running a genetic algorithm – variant of NSGA II – under MATLAB® environment. The objective functions are assessed via the coupling between MATLAB® and EnergyPlus, using a validated building energy model. The multi-criteria decision-making is performed by setting a limit to discomfort to pick an optimal Pareto solution. The framework is tested addressing a typical day of the cooling season and using monitored weather data to simulate weather forecasts. Different optimal solutions are provided to fit different comfort categories. Compared to a reference control at fixed setpoint – 26 °C – the proposed solutions with similar comfort performance ensure cost savings around 28 %. Besides the proposed hypothetical implementation, the framework can be integrated in automation systems for real-time MPC. The novel contributions of this study lie in the methodology to combine MPC with different thermal comfort models as well as in the results, which provide deeps insights about the application of MPC for the space cooling of nearly zero energy buildings in a balanced climate.

Cost Analysis of Implementing an Exercise Program for Fall and Fracture Prevention in Older Adults on Proton Pump Inhibitor Therapy.

Falls have significant financial impact. Proton pump inhibitor (PPI) therapy is associated with an increased risk of falls and fractures. Exercise programs have been shown to decrease risk of falls in the elderly population and are recommended by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force for patients over age 65 to reduce falls. Our study aimed to explore the potential financial benefit of implementing three different Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-recommended exercise-based interventions for fall prevention (Tai Chi, Stepping On, and Otago Exercise Program) in ≥65-year-old patients on PPI therapy. A Markov model was developed to predict the financial implications of fall-related outcomes in the study population. Net cost of the intervention was deducted from the financial savings predicted for fall avoidance relative to the fall reduction conferred by the intervention. Sensitivity analysis was performed on a range of odds ratios between falling and PPI use. Exercise-based interventions were found to offer financial savings when fall reduction rates exceeded 5%, irrespective of variable odds ratios between PPI use and fall rate. Hypothetical implementation of an exercise-based intervention for PPI users ≥65 years of age was estimated to result in annual fall- and fracture-related savings ranging from $10,317.35 to $18,766.28 per individual. Findings suggested an estimated annual reduction in U.S. health care costs of $18 billion to $85 billion. Implementing an exercise-based fall prevention program for elderly PPI users represents a possible strategy to mitigate health care costs in the United States. Future prospective studies are recommended.

Using failure mode and Effects Analysis to increase patient safety in cancer chemotherapy.

Medication errors may occur during chemotherapy and can have fatal consequences. Healthcare Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a method used to detect potential risks and prevent them. Aim of this study was to evaluate the medication process of intravenous tumor therapy in order to guarantee a high standard of patient safety. The main part of the study was performed at the University Hospital of Bonn, Germany. After assembling a multidisciplinary team, the individual steps of prescription, compounding, transport, and administration of chemotherapy were mapped in a flow diagram. The possible failures were identified and analyzed by calculating the risk priority numbers (RPNs). Finally, corrective actions were developed and after hypothetical implementation re-analyzed to measure their effects on the process. Subsequently, a shortened FMEA based on the catalogue failure modes developed in Bonn was carried out at the University Hospital of Cologne in order to evaluate its transferability to another hospital. A total of 52 potential failure modes was identified in Bonn. Relating to the RPNs the most critically steps in the process were associated with the prescription, namely, incorrect information about individual parameters of the patient; non-standardized chemotherapy protocols; and problems related to supportive therapy. A significant risk reduction for most of the failure modes was assessed by implementing suitable corrective actions. The shortened FMEA in Cologne led to a different ranking of failure modes. The implementation of this analysis has not only identified various safety gaps, but also shows how patient safety during chemotherapy can be enhanced. Moreover, it has sensitized the practitioners to failure modes potentially occurring in their work routine.

A Social Return on Investment Analysis of Improving the Management of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Within the Spanish National Healthcare System.

PurposeTo define a set of proposals that would improve the current management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) within the Spanish National Healthcare System (SNHS) from a comprehensive multidisciplinary perspective and to assess the impact of its implementation from clinical, healthcare, economic, and social perspectives.Patients and MethodsA group of 20 stakeholders related to COPD (healthcare professionals, patients, and informal caregivers, among others) participated in an online Delphi process to agree on a set of 15 proposals that would improve the current management of COPD within the SNHS in four areas: diagnosis, risk stratification, management of exacerbations, and management of stable COPD. A one-year forecast-type social return on investment (SROI) analysis was used to estimate the impact that implementing the set of proposals would have in relation to the investment required. A sensitivity analysis was used to test the strength of the model when varying assumption-based data-points.ResultsThe hypothetical implementation of the complete set of 15 proposals would require a €668 million investment and would generate a €2079 million social impact concerning savings for the SNHS and quality of life improvements for patients and their informal caregivers, among others. Accordingly, for every euro invested in the set of proposals, a social return of €3.11 would be generated (€2.71 in the worst-case scenario and €3.62 in the best-case scenario) of both tangible (32.56%) and intangible nature (67.44%).ConclusionAltogether, implementing this set of 15 proposals would generate a positive social impact, threefold the required investment. The results may inform decisions relative to healthcare policy and practice regarding COPD management within the SNHS, further contributing to reduce the large burden of COPD.

The impact of improving haemophilia A management within the Spanish National Healthcare System: a social return on investment analysis

BackgroundHaemophilia A (HA) has been associated with poor health-related quality of life and a large economic burden, accentuated by severity, arthropathy, and inhibitors. To meet global standards of care, the management of HA should align with the principles of care outlined by the World Federation of Haemophilia. The aims of the present study were to establish a set of proposals to improve HA management within the Spanish National Health System (SNHS) and to estimate the impact its hypothetical implementation would generate from a clinical, healthcare, economic, and social perspective.MethodsA multidisciplinary group of experts agreed on a set of 15 proposals to improve HA management within the SNHS. Thereafter, a forecast-type Social Return on Investment analysis was carried out to estimate the impact of implementing this set of proposals within the SNHS over a one-year timeframe, in relation to the required investment.ResultsThis study estimated that the implementation of the complete set of 15 proposals would require a total investment of 2.34 M€ and have a total impact of 14.60 M€. Accordingly, every euro invested in the complete set of 15 proposals would yield a social return of €6.23 (€3.37 in the worst-case scenario and €9.69 in the best-case scenario) of both tangible and intangible nature in similar proportions (45.71 and 54.29%, respectively).ConclusionsThese results can be used to inform policy and practice such that interventions that may potentially improve current public health challenges associated with the management of HA may be implemented.

POSA109 The Impact of Improving the Current Approach to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Within the Spanish National Health System: A Social Return on Investment Analysis

To establish a set of proposals to improve the current approach to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) within the Spanish National Health System (SNHS) and to estimate the impact its hypothetical implementation would generate from a clinical, healthcare, economic, and social perspective.

Assessment of Partitioning and Transmutation of High-Level Waste and Hypothetical Implementation Scenarios in Germany

Abstract. In the context of the search for a deep geological repository for high-level radioactive waste from nuclear energy a preliminary waste treatment is repeatedly called into play by partitioning and transmutation (P&T). Proponents of this approach promise that with P&T, the requirements for and the risks posed by a – then still necessary – repository could be significantly reduced. However, such technological promises have to be prospectively, promptly and publicly reasonably verifiable. Partitioning is reprocessing in which, in addition to separating uranium and plutonium from the fission products, other material streams (for example, the minor actinides) are extracted. In transmutation, radionuclides – especially through nuclear fission – are converted into other nuclides. Thus, conversion of the parent nuclides into nuclides with shorter half-lives, lower radiotoxicity, or into stable nuclides could be achieved. For the assessment of P&T, essential aspects are the current degree of maturity of necessary technologies, the requirements for research and development, technological development risks, the basic feasibility and objective, risks of a hypothetical operation of corresponding plants and the possible effects on nuclear waste disposal. More specifically, on the technological side, it is all about development periods, technical security requirements and licensability, proliferation risks and implementation periods. The presentation of the results of some hypothetical P&T scenarios is intended to help to assess the impacts on radioactive waste present in Germany, necessary facilities and operating periods. Thus, pyro-chemical and hydrochemical separation processes, special transuranic fuels based on mixed oxides (MOX) or uranium-free fuel types and critical fast reactors, subcritical (accelerator-driven) reactors, as well as molten salt reactors, are considered. One difficulty is that the multiple recycling of the transuranics changes the fuel composition. Detailed statements about these changes are only possible with complex simulation calculations and their influence on safe reactor operation. So far, this has not happened on an international scale. In the modelling presented here, an attempt was made to represent the restrictions that the reactor design has on the fuel composition more precisely, at least insofar as the element composition of the fuel remains the same for the duration of the scenario. Conclusions presented from the analysis of the hypothetical scenarios affect, among other things, necessary operating periods and the number of plants and changes achieved in the stock of both transuranics and fission products.

Social perception of technological innovations at sports facilities: justification for financing ‘white elephants’ from public sources? The case of Euro 2012 Stadiums in Poland

The main purpose of the paper is to provide a monetary valuation of social benefits in connection with the hypothetical implementation of technological innovations at four Euro 2012 stadiums in Poland. Not only the construction of the sport’s arenas, but also the ongoing maintenance drain the pockets of Polish taxpayers. At the same time Euro 2012 stadiums remain underused, which familiarize the host cities with the concept of ‘white elephants’. Due to the application of the contingent valuation method (CVM), the social effects obtained by the residents of four Polish cities were linked to proposed technological innovations, which were given appropriate monetary values. The research has proved the importance of technological innovations at the Euro 2012 stadiums in Poland. As a result, the residents of four Polish cities valued the social benefits related to the implementation of these innovations at PLN 70 million (USD 18 million).