Hypothetical Choice Experiment Research Articles

Estimation of (Consumer) Sustainability Benefits from Horizontal Agreements: A Quasi Ex Post Analysis

Abstract The European Commission’s new horizontal guidelines create scope for sustainability agreements and, to calculate efficiencies, suggest the estimation of consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for so-called “nonuse value.” We contrast estimates obtained from a hypothetical choice experiment conducted for the Netherlands’ competition authority (the “Chicken of Tomorrow” case) with estimates based on homescan data documenting consumers’ real choices between more or less animal-friendly meat, ensuring that the respective alternatives are made highly comparable. Still, the estimated WTP for the animal-friendly alternative is several times higher in the choice experiment. Given observed prices and the WTP estimated in the choice experiment, the animal-friendly alternative should have already crowded out the conventional variant. We use our findings to inform about several pitfalls both when using experimental data and when using data from true purchases.

Consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for beef based on color and price discounts

Discoloration of beef products leads retailers to offer discounts or discard beef products, as consumers tend to reject a brownish beef color. This practice contributes to retail food waste and inefficient resource allocation linked to beef production. The objective of this study was to investigate U.S. consumer preferences for beef color and price discounts. After an initial test for screen acuity regarding color perception using a condensed form the ishihara test, data on meat purchasing behavior as well as demographic information was collected for all participants. An additional part of the study undertook a hypothetical discrete choice experiment using digital photos of beef steaks with different meat color, price, and discount labels in retail packaging to examine consumer preferences, willingness to pay, and the effects of discount pricing. Results of a Mixed Logit Model based on choice data show that beef shoppers perceive, see, and prefer color nearly linearly across days of retail display. Consumers' willingness to pay was negative for 4, 7 and 9 days of retail display relative to day zero and decreased with an increase in discoloration. Results indicate that beef shoppers would have to be financially compensated for choosing a steak that was discolored after 9 days of retail display. However, male beef buyers exhibit weaker preferences for color and could be a target segment for promoting discolored beef products to reduce meat waste.

Who is willing to pay a premium for leafy greens produced by indoor agriculture? A comparative choice experiment with US consumers

AbstractIndoor agriculture (IA) presents a pathway to producing leafy greens more sustainably by strictly controlling the growing environment, increasing the efficiency of water and land resources use, reducing pesticide application, and enhancing quality characteristics. However, the commercial success of adopting this production method depends on the technology's widespread consumer acceptance paired with a price premium for the improved quality it provides. This paper characterizes American consumer preferences for leafy greens, reports a positive WTP for leafy green attributes, and estimates how consumer attitudes toward IA affect their leafy green choices. The findings are drawn from an online survey of over 2000 US leafy green consumers conducted in 2021. The respondents faced a hypothetical discrete choice experiment (DCE) designed to simulate purchasing leafy green produce. The alternatives presented in the DCE varied over production systems (IA, field farming, or greenhouses) and quality levels (taste, freshness, nutrient level, and food safety). Estimates identify significant preference heterogeneity for leafy green attributes and facilitate classifying consumers into three preference‐based groups: “Quality Seekers,” “Price Conscious,” and “Focused Practicals.” Preference variation is significantly greater for production methods than quality characteristics, indicating nascent production method preferences. Results suggest most US consumers view IA positively; however, WTP estimates vary significantly between consumer segments [EconLit Citations: D12, D13].

What is the role of environmental sustainability knowledge in food choices? A case study on egg consumers in Italy

This study aims at extending current evidence regarding the role of sustainability knowledge on food choices. In detail, the study focuses on Italian consumers' knowledge of the environmental impact of various stages of food production and consumption and explores whether and to what extent this affects preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for food product attributes, with a focus on sustainability-related characteristics. This study applies a hypothetical Discrete Choice Experiment, using eggs as a case study, combined with a newly validated environmental impact knowledge scale. The results of this study contribute to the literature providing novel insights on the role of food-related sustainability knowledge as a driver of consumers’ food choices; they can be valuable for proposing policies geared at reducing food-related environmental pressure.

Do consumers care about clean labels? Willingness to pay for simple ingredient lists and front‐of‐package labels on beef and plant‐based burgers

AbstractWe use an online hypothetical discrete choice experiment to examine willingness to pay for two dimensions of a clean label: simple ingredient lists and front‐of‐package labels. Experimental subjects were asked to choose between beef burgers, plant‐based burgers, and hybrid burgers made with beef and plant protein. The burgers had either a simple or complex ingredient list and could also be labeled as organic or an excellent source of protein. Subjects were divided into two treatments: a treatment in which ingredient lists were always visible, and a treatment in which the ingredient lists were only visible if subjects clicked on the product image (click treatment). Subjects were willing to pay a premium of $4.55–$5.58 for products with simple ingredient lists in the visible ingredient treatment (relative to base prices of $5.00 to $12.50). This premium was reduced to $1.82–$2.29 in the click treatment. Willingness to pay for the organic and excellent source of protein labels was considerably lower and was generally insignificant, ranging from ‐$0.17 (and statistically insignificant) to $0.73. Willingness to pay for simple ingredient lists and front‐of‐package labels were not correlated, suggesting that demand for these attributes does not stem from an underlying preference for clean labels.

Interactive effects of information and trust on consumer choices of organic food: Evidence from China

A large number of studies have explored the separate roles of information and trust in consumer choices of organic food, but little attention has been paid to exploring the interactive effects of information and trust. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we explored the joint effects of information and consumers' trust in shaping consumer preferences for organic food. A hypothetical choice experiment was employed to elicit consumer preferences for organic food, and a between-subject design approach was used to explore the effects of information. Our results from a sample of 2382 Chinese consumers indicated that consumers are willing to pay extra price for organic rice compared to the conventional rice. Notably, individuals with a high level of trust exhibited a significantly higher willingness to pay for organic rice than those with lower trust levels. Furthermore, the introduction of information leads to a substantial 40% increase in consumers’ willingness to pay for organic rice, with an even more significant 50% increase observed among high-trust consumers. These results highlight the augmenting role of trust in amplifying the effects of information. Consequently, effective strategies should encompass both the provision of information and the cultivation of trust concurrently to promote consumer choices of organic food.

How do attitudes and impacts of Covid-19 affect demand for microtransit?

The Covid-19 pandemic dramatically reduced demand for public transportation and other shared mobility services. While some studies have indicated that this lowered demand may continue for some time post-pandemic, more affordable forms of shared mobility may be more likely to rebound faster. In this paper, we concentrate on the likely effect of pandemic-related attitudes on one such service: microtransit. We applied quantitative and qualitative methods to assess this question on a behavioral survey applied to 2,400 residents in four diverse United States cities: Miami, Washington D.C., Minneapolis, and Seattle. The purpose of this survey was to investigate interest in a hypothetical microtransit, or on-demand, first-mile/last-mile shuttle service. We find no correlation between Covid-19 impact and interest in microtransit using structural equation modeling. Choice modeling applied on hypothetical mode choice experiments shows a positive correlation between the chances of choosing it in hypothetical scenarios and a general propensity to use shared mobility during the pandemic, but not on other pandemic-related attitudes. Finally, a qualitative analysis shows there is hardly any relation between open-ended responses related to microtransit and the pandemic. These results suggest that the pandemic may not have such a large impact on shared mobility as expected. Based on our findings, it is possible that services such as microtransit could see demand at or above pre-pandemic levels. We recommend transit agencies assess any expected demand shifts with as much information as possible, as it is possible that demand for services such as microtransit will rebound to pre-pandemic levels comparatively quickly.

Cheese without cows: Consumer demand for animal-free dairy cheese made from cellular agriculture in the United Kingdom

Abstract We examine consumer demand for animal-free dairy cheese produced using cellular agriculture. Our data is generated through a hypothetical choice experiment completed by 1249 UK residents. Using a mixed logit model, we predict that animal-free dairy cheese would have a conditional market share of 22% when priced at a 25% markup relative to premium conventional cheese. However, the market share is quite sensitive to price: only 2% of consumers would purchase animal-free dairy cheese if it were twice the price of premium conventional cheese. Three-quarters of consumers who purchase animal-free dairy cheese would have purchased conventional dairy cheese if animal-free dairy cheese were unavailable. We use our experimental results to examine the impact of higher conventional dairy cheese prices, such as those that might result from a tax on livestock products. We find that the introduction of animal-free dairy cheese reduces consumer losses from higher conventional dairy prices by about 20%.

Sustainability, perceived quality and country of origin of farmed salmon: Impact on consumer choices in the USA, France and Japan

Technological advancements that enable countries to produce farmed seafood domestically, including land-based production, could potentially improve sustainability measures. However, whether consumers prefer domestic farmed seafood to imported seafood is unclear. This paper aims to fill this gap by employing hypothetical choice experiments from the US, France, and Japan. We find that, in each country, there is a sizable consumer segment (varying from one-quarter to two-thirds of the market) with a strong preference for domestic farmed salmon, including those from land-based production. These consumers associate domestic origin with higher qualities in all relevant dimensions and are willing to pay a price premium. There is also a segment of consumers with a strong preference for imported Norwegian salmon (from one-fifth to two-thirds of the market), linking Norwegian origin to higher qualities, and willing to pay higher prices. Consumers’ attitudes towards the environment and food, usage of label information, age, income, and consumption frequencies, are among the characteristics that explain consumer heterogeneity. Our results show the market potential for domestic farmed seafood, thus, providing consumers with reliable origin information for farmed seafood that also covers land-based production would be important. At the same time, the existence of a segment with a preference for imported seafood implies that active trade will remain, indicating the importance of continued international corporation for a holistic and transparent policy framework and common standards for a sustainable aquatic food system.

Consumers' preferences and willingness to pay for coffee sustainability labels

AbstractConsumers are displaying an increasing awareness for the social and environmental impact of coffee production, and this is also reflected in their willingness to pay for sustainably produced coffee. For example, the Direct Trade label, which highlights a direct relationship between roasters and farmers, has gained popularity to strengthen the industry's efforts to make coffee production more sustainable. This leads to the question of whether consumers prefer coffee carrying this label. Hence, this research analyzes consumer preferences and willingness to pay for coffee labels representing sustainability efforts, such as the Direct Trade label. We informed participants about the efforts reflected by each sustainability label and utilized a hypothetical online choice experiment to determine US consumers' preferences and willingness to pay for coffee sustainability labels. The highest willingness to pay was found for coffee carrying both the Fair Trade and Organic labels, and the Direct Trade and Organic labels. The key findings of this study demonstrate that consumers are willing to pay more for sustainability labels that communicate efforts on solving social issues, followed by labels that highlight environmental issues. [EconLit Citation: C9].

Consumers’ valuation for low - carbon emission and low – saturated fat butter

Currently, there is an ongoing debate related to the large environmental impact of livestock greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the negative effect of saturated fat contained in the animal foods on human health. In response to these adverse effects, dairy producers have adopted strategies to reduce these effects by modifying the conventional livestock feed composition. This study investigated, for the first time, Finnish consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) and heterogeneous preferences for butter derived from milk produced by cows fed with lipid-rich rapeseed feed, hereafter called rapeseed feed, which can reduce the GHG emissions from cows, and the saturated fat content of dairy products. Using a hypothetical choice experiment (CE) involving butter that varied across four attributes (i.e. type of feed, saturated fat content, Carbon Trust label, and price), our results show that, on average, consumers preferred the low-price butter, produced from cows fed with regular feed, labelled with the claim “Reduced saturated fat”, and branded with the “Carbon Trust” label. Interestingly, we found that one-third of consumers were willing to pay a premium price for butter derived from milk produced by cows fed with rapeseed feed. Furthermore, we found that younger, and higher educated consumers tend to prefer butter derived from cows fed with rapeseed feed. These findings provide useful insights into the psychology of consumers’ level of acceptance and attitudes that can be used by dairy producers and marketers in communicating to the public the nature of the new feed practices to reduce the negative environmental emissions, and saturated fat content of dairy products.

Estimating preferences for Mediterranean deep-sea ecosystem services: A discrete choice experiment

The deep sea represents Earth’s largest (but least explored) biome. It is increasingly affected by anthropogenic stressors and climate change, which threaten the provision of essential ecosystem services. The monetary value of these benefits has rarely been assessed. High biodiversity is hosted in the deep sea and, more generally, in the oceans. This paper uses a hypothetical choice experiment to investigate Italian households’ preferences for deep-sea ecosystem services. The data show wide heterogeneity of the preferences for preserving the Mediterranean deep sea. Many respondents indicate that they would refuse to pay to support the protection of biodiversity and scientific research in this remote and unfamiliar environment. Overall, global warming was of little concern for most respondents, who would not be willing to pay to limit the increase in global temperatures. High income and formal education positively influenced the willingness of the respondents to donate to Non-Governmental Organization’s initiatives to support the Mediterranean deep sea. Deep-water corals appear more ‘charismatic’ to respondents than submarine canyons among deep-sea habitats.

Consumers’ Preference for the Consumption of the Fresh Black Slavonian Pig’s Meat

There are limited data on Croatian consumers' preferences and willingness to pay for fresh meat from the Black Slavonian pig. The survey was conducted on a sample of n = 410 Croatian consumers, using a hypothetical choice experiment to examine how food attributes and information treatment influence consumers' decisions regarding fresh ham meat of the Black Slavonian pig. The hypothetical choice experiment was conducted using fresh boneless pork ham with three attributes (price, colour and geographical information) as the focuses of the product. Croatian consumers were randomly assigned to one of two treatment options (control or information) in an online survey to investigate the role of information. Our results indicate that Croatian consumers have a clear preference for fresh boneless ham from the Black Slavonian pig produced in both production systems and labelled as reared in continental Croatia and with a protected designation of origin (PDO) label, compared with fresh boneless ham produced from conventionally reared pigs (intensive rearing-indoor rearing) without the label. The results show that the information given to consumers about the production system, meat colour and geographical information positively influenced consumer choice. Appropriate labelling and information about the product can positively influence consumers' preferences, which indicates the importance of highlighting the traditional characteristics (production system, darker colour of the meat and production area) of fresh meat from Black Slavonian pig on the label in promotional activities.

Illustrating Emerging Good Practices for Quantitative Benefit-Risk Assessment: A Hypothetical Case Study of Systemic Biologic Treatments for Plaque Psoriasis

ObjectivesQuantitative benefit-risk assessment (qBRA) is a structured process to evaluate the benefit-risk balance of treatment options to support decision making. The ISPOR qBRA Task Force was recently established to provide recommendations for the design, conduct, and reporting of qBRA. This report presents a hypothetical case study illustrating how to apply the Task Force’s recommendations toward a qBRA to inform the benefit-risk assessment of brodalumab at the time of initial marketing approval. The qBRA evaluated 2 dosing regimens of brodalumab (210 mg or 140 mg twice weekly) compared with weight-based dosing of ustekinumab and placebo. MethodsWe followed the 5 steps recommended by the Task Force. Attributes included treatment response (≥75% improvement in Psoriasis Area and Severity Index), suicidal ideation and behavior, and infections. Performance data were drawn from pivotal clinical trials of brodalumab. The qBRA used multicriteria decision analysis and preference weights from a hypothetical discrete choice experiment. Sensitivity analyses examined the robustness of benefit-risk ranking to uncertainty in clinical effect and preference estimates, consideration of a subgroup (nail psoriasis), and the maintenance phase of treatment (52 weeks instead of 12). ResultsResults from this hypothetical qBRA suggest that brodalumab 210 mg had a more favorable benefit-risk profile compared with ustekinumab and placebo. Ranking of brodalumab compared with ustekinumab was dependent on brodalumab’s dose. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated robustness of benefit-risk ranking to uncertainty in clinical effect and preference estimates, as well as choice of attributes and length of follow-up. ConclusionThis case study demonstrates how to implement the ISPOR Task Force’s good practice recommendations on qBRA.

What are the Priorities of Bureaucrats? Evidence from Conjoint Experiments with Procurement Officials

A well-functioning bureaucracy is a precondition for efficient public goods provision. However, bureaucratic decision-making is still largely seen as a black box. We provide novel insights into the preferences of bureaucrats regarding their work outcomes. We focus on a major public sector activity and survey more than 900 real-life procurement officials in Finland and Germany. The questionnaire includes hypothetical choice experiments to study the relative importance of multiple features in tender outcomes. First, bureaucrats state to have substantial discretion at work but no important incentives. Second, our experimental results show that procurers are particularly worried about avoiding negative risks concerning prices and supplier reputation. Third, an avoidance of bidders with prior bad performance appears to be an extremely important factor. Fourth, procurers value a certain degree of competition, while litigation concerns and regional favoritism play only a small role. The striking lack of heterogeneous effects points towards the role of intrinsic motivation among public buyers in countries with high public sector capacity.

Are U.S. consumers willing to pay more by the lake? An analysis of preferences for Great Lakes region fish

AbstractU.S. per capita seafood consumption is historically high due to population and income growth and consumer preference shifts toward healthy protein options. Despite this expansion, U.S. fisheries, especially those in the Great Lakes region, no longer fulfill domestic demand due to pressure on fish stocks and regulatory constraints. Instead, aquaculture and imports fill the gap. Rainbow trout, yellow perch, and walleye—three species historically produced in the North Central Region (NCR)—exemplify such trends. To expand marketing opportunities for NCR aquaculture producers, this study estimates willingness to pay (WTP) for these species and several search and credence fish attributes. We designed and distributed a survey instrument to collect hypothetical choice experiment responses from U.S. seafood consumers. Using a random utility framework, we estimate mean total WTP for trout, yellow perch, and walleye of $19.99/lb., $15.89/lb., and $17.37/lb., respectively. Further, we identify average price premia of $1.64/lb., $1.97/lb., and $0.84/lb. for NCR-sourced, wild-caught, and fresh fillet attributes. Our analysis also captures regional preferences. Mean WTP estimates for yellow perch and walleye, which are native to the Great Lakes, are significantly higher inside the NCR. Further, trout commands a higher premium outside the NCR than within, suggesting potential market segmentation for the analyzed species.

Consumers’ experiences and preferences for plant-based meat food: Evidence from a choice experiment in four cities of China

This paper examined consumers’ experiences in and preferences for plant-based meat (PBM) food and their respective correlates, based on data from an online survey of 579 consumers in four major cities in China in early 2021. We first described consumers’ experiences in consuming and purchasing PBM food and their correlates, and then analyzed consumer preferences using hypothetical choice experiment. The experiment offered consumers various options to purchase burgers made from PBM or animal-based meat (ABM), combined with different countries of origin (COO), taste labels, and prices. Our data showed that respondents hold overall positive attitudes toward PBM food; 85 and 82% of respondents reported experience in eating and purchasing PBM food, respectively. More than half of them ate PBM food because they wanted to try new food (58%), or were interested in healthy food (56%). Income, religion, and dietary restrictions were significantly correlated with consumers’ experiences in PBM food consumption. Results from the Random Parameter Logit Model based on the hypothetical choice experiment data showed that 79% of respondents chose PBM burgers and were willing to pay an average of 88 CNY for a PBM burger. We also found that 99.8 and 83% of respondents are willing to buy burgers made in China and those with a taste label, with a willingness to pay (WTP) of 208 and 120 CNY, respectively. The heterogeneity test revealed that females and those with at least a bachelor’s degree, higher income, religious beliefs, and dietary restrictions are more likely to buy PBM burgers than their counterparts.

Active Consideration of Future Health Can Be Prompted by Simple Health Messages and Improves Nutritional Quality of Food Choices.

Many choices that people face daily have implications for future health and well-being. Choices about what foods to purchase and consume are one of the most frequent—and universal choices—that people must make. The ongoing rise of overweight and obesity rates—and associated diet-related diseases—in the US and many other countries illustrates the future health consequences of low-quality dietary choices. While a large body of research shows that individuals with a tendency to consider the future make a wide range of healthier decisions, research on limited attention and exogenous factors influencing choice suggests that attention to the future consequences of choices may vary from one choice scenario to the next. In this research, we examine the impact of active consideration of future health impacts during a hypothetical online food choice experiment on the nutritional quality of food choices and on choice process variables—the set of products people choose to select from and the use of nutrition information during choice—during an online food choice task. Next, we examine the impact of exposure to a short message about the health benefits of fiber on consideration of future health impacts and on the nutritional quality of choices. We find that active consideration of future health impacts significantly improves the nutritional quality of choices—particularly among processed food products—and makes people more likely to pay attention to healthy foods and use nutrition information. Exposure to a short health message significantly increases the likelihood that individuals consider future health impacts during choice, which promotes healthier choices overall.

How Do Nutritional Warnings Work on Commercial Products? Results From a Hypothetical Choice Experiment.

A large body of evidence assessing the effectiveness of front-of-package (FOP) nutrition labeling exists. Most experimental studies have been conducted with fictitious products. However, consumers’ perception depends on several products extrinsic factors such as brand. Understanding how strong brand associations influence the effectiveness of FOP nutrition labeling schemes may be crucial to informing policymaking. In this context, the aim of this work was to evaluate the effect of five different variants of nutritional warnings labels (black magnifier, red magnifier, black octagon, black triangle, and red circle) on consumers’ choice of commercial products, compared with two FOP nutrition labeling schemes: the guidelines daily amounts (GDAs) system and the traffic light system (TLS). An online randomized controlled trial with 1,932 participants was used to evaluate the effect of FOP nutrition labeling on participants’ choices in eight sets of three commercial products, available in the Brazilian marketplace. A multinomial logistic regression model was used to evaluate the influence of FOP nutrition labeling on participants’ likelihood of selecting the different products in the choice task. Results showed that nutritional warnings and the TLS significantly increased the likelihood of selecting none of the products instead of the least healthful product, or a healthier product, in at least one of the product categories compared with the GDA. Warnings tended to have a larger effect, suggesting their potential to encourage healthier food choices.

Adaptive cell-based evacuation systems for leader-follower crowd evacuation

The challenge of controlling crowd movement at large events expands not only to the realm of emergency evacuations but also to improving non-critical conditions related to operational efficiency and comfort. In both cases, it becomes necessary to develop adaptive crowd motion control systems. In particular, adaptive cell-based crowd evacuation systems dynamically generate exit-choice recommendations favoring a coordinated group dynamic that improves safety and evacuation time. We investigate the viability of using this mechanism to develop a “leader-follower” evacuation system in which a trained evacuation staff guides evacuees safely to the exit gates. To validate the proposal, we use a simulation–optimization framework integrating microscopic simulation. Evacuees’ behavior has been modeled using a three-layered architecture that includes eligibility, exit-choice changing, and exit-choice models, calibrated with hypothetical-choice experiments. As a significant contribution of this work, the proposed behavior models capture the influence of leaders on evacuees, which is translated into exit-choice decisions and the adaptation of speed. This influence can be easily modulated to evaluate the evacuation efficiency under different evacuation scenarios and evacuees’ behavior profiles. When measuring the efficiency of the evacuation processes, particular attention has been paid to safety by using pedestrian Macroscopic Fundamental Diagrams (p-MFD), which model the crowd movement dynamics from a macroscopic perspective. The spatiotemporal view of the evacuation performance in the form of crowd-pressure vs. density values allowed us to evaluate and compare safety in different evacuation scenarios reasonably and consistently. Experimental results confirm the viability of using adaptive cell-based crowd evacuation systems as a guidance tool to be used by evacuation staff to guide evacuees. Interestingly, we found that evacuation staff motion speed plays a crucial role in balancing egress time and safety. Thus, it is expected that by instructing evacuation staff to move at a predefined speed, we can reach the desired balance between evacuation time, accident probability, and comfort.