How do attitudes and impacts of Covid-19 affect demand for microtransit?

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic dramatically reduced demand for public transportation and other shared mobility services. While some studies have indicated that this lowered demand may continue for some time post-pandemic, more affordable forms of shared mobility may be more likely to rebound faster. In this paper, we concentrate on the likely effect of pandemic-related attitudes on one such service: microtransit. We applied quantitative and qualitative methods to assess this question on a behavioral survey applied to 2,400 residents in four diverse United States cities: Miami, Washington D.C., Minneapolis, and Seattle. The purpose of this survey was to investigate interest in a hypothetical microtransit, or on-demand, first-mile/last-mile shuttle service. We find no correlation between Covid-19 impact and interest in microtransit using structural equation modeling. Choice modeling applied on hypothetical mode choice experiments shows a positive correlation between the chances of choosing it in hypothetical scenarios and a general propensity to use shared mobility during the pandemic, but not on other pandemic-related attitudes. Finally, a qualitative analysis shows there is hardly any relation between open-ended responses related to microtransit and the pandemic. These results suggest that the pandemic may not have such a large impact on shared mobility as expected. Based on our findings, it is possible that services such as microtransit could see demand at or above pre-pandemic levels. We recommend transit agencies assess any expected demand shifts with as much information as possible, as it is possible that demand for services such as microtransit will rebound to pre-pandemic levels comparatively quickly.