The insufficient understanding of the impact of hydrothermal products on the growth characteristics of compost microorganisms presents a significant challenge to the broader implementation of hydrothermal coupled composting for tobacco waste. Traditional biochemical detection methods are labor-intensive and time-consuming, highlighting the need for faster and more accurate alternatives. This study investigated the effects of hydrothermal treatment on tobacco straw products and their influence on compost microorganism growth, using hyperspectral imaging (HSI) technology and machine learning algorithms. Sixty-one tobacco straw samples were analyzed with a hyperspectral camera, and image processing was used to extract average spectra from regions of interest (ROI). Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and principal component analysis (PCA) were applied to assess four key variables: nicotine content, total humic acid content, Penicillium chrysogenum H/C ratio, and Bacillus subtilis OD600 ratio. The effects of hydrothermal treatment on compost were classified as promoting, inhibiting, or neutral regarding microbial growth. The Competitive Adaptive Reweighted Sampling (CARS) method identified the most influential wavelengths in the 900-1700 nm spectral range. The Random Forest (RF) model outperformed SVM, KNN, and XGBoost models in predicting microbial growth responses, achieving Rc = 0.957, RMSE = 3.584. Key wavelengths were identified at 1096 nm, 1101 nm, 1163 nm, 1335 nm, and 1421 nm. The results indicate that hyperspectral imaging combined with machine learning can accurately predict changes in the chemical composition of tobacco straws and their effects on microbial activity. This method provides an innovative and effective means of improving the resource usage of tobacco straws in composting, enhancing sustainable waste management procedures.