Accessible online at: www.karger.com/ibe A main thrust of modern journalism, it seems, is to try to worry people. Good news doesn’t sell newspapers and in the absence of catastrophe worrying people is second best to reporting disasters. Fortunately, there are always plenty of pots of worry bubbling quietly away on the back burner waiting to be pulled forward and offered as anxiety fare to the masses. Government misbehaviour, criminal activities, sex maniacs in our midst whose proclivities are weighed for maximum worry response. And the best stand-by of all: the planet earth. It’s in a bad way, they say, and it’s all our fault. The more we understand about the evolution of the solar system, the evolution of the earth, the evolution of life on the earth the less, it seems, do we use that knowledge. The recent geological record, that is just the last few million years, reveals in the rocks such things as ice ages, droughts, deluges, periods of hot and cold. This was all a long time ago and there are those who would have us believe that it’s different now, that was the past, the earth has now settled down. The same people also say that this stable state is in danger and could easily go out of control and almost certainly will unless we mend our ways and stop trashing our own backyards. Although meteorological records have only been collected more or less continuously since the late 18th century there are plenty of earlier references to the weather in the literature. These show that some years it was hot and dry and others cold and wet and that there were long periods when it was warmer than today and others when it was colder. It has been well recorded that one thing that you can rely on in this uncertain world is that the climate will vary. It always has done; it, presumably, always will. To talk as some do, and many politicians used the phrase during the recent Johannesburg Conference, of a ‘sustainable climate’ for which the Conference was a ‘blueprint’ is a nonsense. They were talking of controlling global warming and while I accept that there is an argument that the globe is indeed warming I am inclined to say – but so what, if it is, there is nothing we can do about it. Global warming comes and goes. There was a big ice age round about 20,000 years ago, a mini-ice age around 500 years ago from which we may still be emerging and another 1,000 years earlier and the alleged human-made one during which we are living. That the ice ages occurred seems certain but whatever is happening at the present time is insignificant in comparison. Note that it can get colder during global warming – it just depends where you live. One concern that is often voiced is that as it gets warmer glaciers will retreat, the ice caps melt and sea levels rise. Well, the ice caps have been melted in the past and since the last ice age 20,000 years ago, the sea level has been increasing at an average of 6 mm/year, and is currently rising 1–3 mm/year, which is a lower rate of increase than in prefossil fuel burning times. In the period between the two most recent mini-ice ages it was warmer than today. In the time known as the Medieval Warm Period, around the years 1100–1300, it has been deduced that temperatures were probably 2–3°C higher than today. From about 400 years ago after another miniice age and certainly by around 1700 temperatures were again rising, this at a time that preceded the Industrial Revolution. Perhaps human production of compounds such as carbon dioxide can raise the temperatures in previous centuries? Politically not such a silly comment since politicians barely tilt their caps to science and universally eschew all reference to and probably have no knowledge of thermodynamics. Certainly there is little rational thought in the politics of energy production or energy transfer.
Read full abstract