Hypergame Analysis Research Articles

First-level hypergame for investigating two decision-maker conflicts with unknown misperceptions of preferences within the framework of GMCR

Misunderstandings of preferences are ubiquitous in various types of conflicts, and such misperceptions often involve uncertainty due to the limited cognitive abilities and information asymmetry of decision-makers. This research proposes a novel hypergame analysis approach based on the graph model for conflict resolution to address challenging disputes involving unknown misunderstandings of preferences. Specifically, a first-level hypergame model with two decision-makers is intentionally developed in this study to handle the uncertainty of preference misunderstandings in conflicts. The logical definitions of stabilities in the first-level hypergame are put forward to portray various decision-making behaviors of stakeholders when facing the vagueness of preference misperceptions, and efficiently determine possible resolutions. Algebraic representations of stabilities are also designed for the first time to enhance the computational efficiency of hypergame analyses and facilitate the development of decision support systems. Furthermore, more general definitions of individual and overall equilibria and their algebraic representations are purposefully proposed within the first-level hypergame model. This allows the decision-makers involved in a conflict to hold stable under different solution concepts. Finally, this novel approach is applied to an environmental dispute to demonstrate its practicality in addressing real-world conflicts with uncertain misperceptions of preferences. The case study shows that the uncertainty of preference misunderstandings can affect the optimal strategy selections of decision-makers and result in changes to the equilibria or outcomes of conflicts.

Game theoretic-based modelling of Krishna waters dispute: equilibrium solutions by hypergame analysis

Game theoretic-based modelling of Krishna waters dispute: equilibrium solutions by hypergame analysis

Hypergames and Cyber-Physical Security for Control Systems

The identification of the Stuxnet worm in 2010 provided a highly publicized example of a cyber attack that physically damaged an industrial control system. This raised public awareness about the possibility of similar attacks against other industrial targets—including critical infrastructure. In this article, we use hypergames to analyze how strategic perturbations of sensor readings and calibrated parameters can be used to manipulate a system that employs optimal control. Hypergames form an extension of game theory that enables us to model strategic interactions where the players may have significantly different perceptions of the game(s) they are playing. Past work with hypergames has focused on relatively simple interactions consisting of a small set of discrete choices for each player. Here, we apply single-stage hypergames to larger systems with continuous variables. We find that manipulating constraints can be a more effective attacker strategy than manipulating objective function parameters. Moreover, the attacker need not change the underlying system to carry out a successful attack—it may be sufficient to deceive the defender controlling the system. It is possible to scale our approach up to even larger systems, but this will depend on the characteristics of the system in question, and we identify several characteristics that will make those systems amenable to hypergame analysis.

Learning and Information Manipulation: Repeated Hypergames for Cyber-Physical Security

Cyber-physical systems are vulnerable to cyber attacks that can produce serious physical consequences. Our previous work showed how hypergame analysis, an extension of game theory for situations with information asymmetries and player misperceptions, could be applied to control systems subject to deception-based attacks. Here, we build on that research to study a repeated, stochastic context. We consider detection of an attacker attempting to manipulate the control system while remaining undetected. We discuss different monitoring approaches that can be used to do this and define a learning scheme for the defender. In our numerical experiments, we find that the attacker impact and time to detection depend strongly on the cost incurred by the defender in removing an attacker from the system. We also show that the defender learning scheme enforces a strong tradeoff, for the attacker, between remaining undetected, and having an impact on the system.

General hypergame analysis within the graph model for conflict resolution

ABSTRACTTo capture decision-makers' (DMs') various kinds of misperceptions in a conflict setting, a methodology is developed to improve hypergame analysis within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution. This technique models and analyses DMs' different levels of perception in a real-life situation. It also handles a DM's misperception about itself as well as misperception about its opponents. A hypergame in graph form is a framework that consists of subjective hypergames, each of which illustrates a given DM's viewpoint of the hypergame situation. The universal sets of options and states for the hypergame, which include all possible perceptual options and states for the conflict, are used to construct each DM's subjective hypergame. To gain worthy strategic insights from the hypergame analysis, the overall hypergame equilibria are classified based on the types of misperceptions and the awareness of DMs into eight classes of resolutions.

A review and participatory extension of game structuring methods

Problem structuring methods are uniquely suitable for analysing strategically complex problems. There exists a subset of these problem structuring methods which focus specifically on structuring the decision processes by which multiple actors debate and potentially resolve complex problems. These methods include, but are not limited to, analysis of options, conflict analysis, exchange modelling, hypergame analysis and the theory of moves. In this paper, we characterize these methods as “game structuring methods”, by describing their common analytical elements and discussing their theoretical pre-commitments. We further develop a standardized approach for using such a game structuring methods within a participatory modelling setting.

Hypergame analysis and hydroconflicts in the Okavango drainage basin

This article provides a game theory based approach to the analysis of interstate conflict between Angola, Botswana and Namibia over the Okavango River's shared water resources and tries to offer strategies that can be employed to harmonize incongruent interests. This is done by providing a compressed scenario in which interstate conflicts revolve around lack of adequate mechanisms to satisfactorily distribute shared water resources. The basic premise of the analysis is the following: if relevant data are available, the mathematical inclination of game theoretic modelling provides an objective framework for working out sharing arrangements that minimize conflict. We illustrate this claim on the basis of a hypothetical game where riparian states involved make compensatory sacrifices in order to offset the losses incurred by other partners. We cautiously provide suggestions for the way forward without pretending that these are exhaustive.

Strategic analysis of the James Bay hydro-electric dispute in Canada

A strategic analysis of the James Bay conflict was carried out by using the graph model for conflict resolution. In 1971, Hydro-Québec, which is the third-largest electrical generating company of North America, began its large-scale hydroelectric projects in the James Bay area. Since the projects would significantly affect the living conditions of the native people and the environment around that region, worldwide debates were stimulated. A conflict model was developed in terms of the decision makers, their options, and their preferences for the situation existing as of January 2002, just prior to the signing of the final agreement. Subsequently, a stability analysis based on the calibrated model indicates that a possible resolution is that Hydro-Québec reduces the number of proposed power stations to appease the native people, who in turn would not initiate lawsuits. Sensitivity and hypergame analyses were also carried out to demonstrate the effects of preferences of decision makers on the final resolution. In practice, the modelling and analysis were implemented using the decision support system, GMCR II®. Key words: Hydroelectric, conflict resolution, decision support system, graph model, stability analysis, sensitivity analysis, hypergame analysis.

A hypergame analysis of the battle of Magersfontein

The battle of Magersfontein, 11 December 1899, can be modelled as a hypergame. The analysis shows how British misconceptions of the Boer strategies and strength led to an ill-advised British attack with disastrous results for them. Several points in connection with hypergames are illustrated in this case study.

Negotiations with Incomplete Information

In recent years, bargaining and negotiations have become areas of growing interest to researchers in business, management, and international trade. Decision‐makers in negotiations often do not have complete information about the situation and, therefore, may misunderstand the true intention of their opponents. In this paper, the negotiations on an international economic zone development project are modeled as hypergames, and analyzed by various solution concepts to study the role of misperception in negotiation interactions. Multiple levels of hypergame and sensitivity analysis are explored to find the best strategy that may help the parties to overcome their mistrust and reach the best cooperative solution.

Hypergame analysis of the stability of relationships between computerbased logistics systems

Current inventory management literature stresses the importance of cooperation between organisations in achieving and maintaining efficient supply relationships. This is in contrast to the conflict which has underpinned orthodox competitive supply. Management writers, notably Carlisle and Parker (1989), argue that companies should move towards a reduced supplier base, longer-term contracts and cooperation on operational issues. Their justification for this assertion is based on descriptions of successful cooperative supply relationships. This paper describes research being undertaken to use hypergame theory to analyse supply relationships and modify the control systems in use to make efficient cooperative supply stable and self-policing. The paper will discuss these issues and describe their application with reference to a study of the supply relationship between a large engineering company and their vendor of forgings.

Solution concepts in hypergames

A new and comprehensive methodology, called hypergame analysis, has been developed for modeling and analyzing conflicts where one or more participants have misperceptions about the nature of the conflict. In this paper, various solution concepts for describing human behavior are formally defined in order to predict the possible resolutions to hypergames. The relationships among solution sets, which are identified under various solution concepts, are examined mathematically within the general contents of hypergame analysis. It is found that introducing misperceptions into a game does not change the game's equilibrium properties. It can be proved that every hypergame has at least one overall equilibrium under Fraser and Hipel's solution concept. With these developments, the effect of misperceptions in hypergames can be examined from different perspectives, the influence of information on conflict decision making can be highlighted, and the behavioral patterns of human beings in a conflict can be better understood. The work presented in this paper enhances significantly the capacity of hypergame analysis to handle a wide range of real-world conflicts.

Hypergame Analysis of the Falkland/Malvinas Conflict

A comprehensive framework is presented for modeling a hypergame, which is a game in which one or more players have misperceptions about the true nature of the dispute. To forecast the possible resolutions or equilibria of a hypergame, a new hypergame analysis algorithm is devised for executing stability analyses. In order to demonstrate the efficacy of this new approach to hypergame modeling and analysis, it is applied to the Falkland/ Malvinas conflict of 1982. The hypergame study provides some interesting insights into the manner in which misperceptions dictated coercive actions by both Argentina and Britain in this crisis.

Modeling misperceptions in games

In this article, a new method, called improved hypergame analysis, is developed for studying a conflict in which one or more players have misunderstood the true nature of the dispute. The method can be used for analyzing disputes having any finite number of participants consisting of individuals, organizations, nations or any kind of societal group. In order to extend the usefulness of hypergame analysis, the new and comprehensive approach is presented by giving the theoretical definitions, mathematical models, and practical procedures for performing a hypergame stability analysis. Because of the improvements to hypergame analysis, a conflict having misperceptions can be rigorously and accurately modeled and the perceived resolutions to the dispute can be properly ascertained.

Analysis of soft trends in systems thinking

AbstractThis paper aims to investigate characteristics of recent ‘soft’ problem solving approaches in OR as well as in systems science. A general scheme is first developed in which the inquiry processes of systems approaches are discussed. This scheme also reveals the essential ingredients of a systems approach which determine the ‘softness’. Then, three soft systems approaches are analyzed, i.e. hypergame analysis, cognitive mapping analysis and soft systems methodology. Finally, the properties, in terms of general systems theory and cybernetics, of these soft systems approaches are discussed assuming that their inquiry processes are directed at producing improvement as well as explanation and accommodation to the real world situation.

Testing Times: Dilemmas in an Action Research Project

Getting new methods tested is not a trivial problem, particularly where the process of application is considered as important as the product of analysis. Action research provides a useful alternative to straightforward consultancy as a way of examining the worth of a method. It seeks to contribute to both problem solving and research, and this requires careful management of the process of inquiry. It also allows expectations about results to be reduced in recognition that new methods are being tested. A six-month action research project was undertaken to develop and test ways of linking hyper-game analysis to cognitive mapping and the strategic choice methodology. The pitfalls encountered in managing roles, images, and expectations may provide lessons for project management in OR generally and for testing new decision-aiding strategies.

On Linking Approaches to Decision-Aiding: Issues and Prospects

This paper arises from some current attempts to being together several approaches designed to help decision-makers faced with complex, ‘messy’ problems. These include, inter alia, the strategic choice methodology, hypergame analysis and other game-based approaches, and methods making use of cognitive mapping.

Hypergame Analysis of the Lake Biwa Conflict

When there are misunderstandings among participants in a water resources conflict, hypergame analysis can be used to systematically model the conflict and predict the compromise resolutions. In order to demonstrate the efficacy of using hypergame analysis for studying water resources management problems, it is applied to the Lake Biwa conflict in Japan. This dispute constitutes a typical example of a water allocation conflict where downstream users would like more water from the upstream controllers of the major source of the water. Furthermore, each participant or player in the Lake Biwa dispute has misperceptions about the other players' preferences. Besides predicting the different resolutions which each of the players envisioned, hypergame analysis correctly forecasts the compromise resolution that occurred historically.

Hypergames and design decisions

Hypergame analysis is one way of looking at situations involving interactions between a number of participants. The approach considers situations in terms of the participants involved, the options available to them, and their preferences. It acknowledges explicitly that different participants may view the situation in different ways. In this paper the nature and use of hypergames is introduced. It is argued that thinking in hypergame terms can help those making decisions about systems which involve people to produce more effective designs.

Hypergames and What They Do: A ‘Soft O.R.’ Approach

Many decision problems involve conflicts of interest between different participants. An effort has been made to develop hypergame analysis as one way of modelling such situations. Specifically this approach is designed to allow for the fact that the various parties may have quite different beliefs about the situation-including different models of each other. The aim of this paper is to suggest some ways in which such an approach might be used in practice, and to show how these could be of help in dealing with complex conflict problems. It is emphasised that while the end product of a hypergame analysis may be useful, much of the benefit is gained from the actual process of carrying it out.