Systematic procedures for applying surrogate model development to building energy problems have limited adoption and struggle to incorporate advancements in broader machine learning research. This work demonstrates an iterative approach that encompasses: Establishing clear, consistent baseline performance thresholds. Assembling a comprehensive set of domain-relevant evaluation metrics, including rigorous bounds on error and emphasis on regions of interest within the broader problem space. Characterizing and adapting the problem space using sub-sampling and pre-processing techniques. Accounting for variability, randomness and complexity in the building energy problem definition, data sampling and surrogate model training. Refining the metamodel decision space defining the neural network architecture and training algorithms, and explored by hyperparameter optimization methods. In addition to demonstrating improved performance predicting aggregate annual heating and cooling demands for an illustrative office case, accuracy, bias and bounds on error were all brought within domain-relevant thresholds for net zero regions of interest. Highlights Iterative refinement of surrogate modelling procedure for building energy problems Consideration of complexity and variability in energy data, problem and surrogate Addition of key dimensions to performance evaluation useful for domain application Greatly improved predictive value for net zero building energy regions of interest Systematic shift in hyperparameter tuning towards deep learning configurations
Read full abstract