Hydrometeorology Testbed Research Articles

Quantitative Precipitation Estimation using X-Band Radar for Orographic Rainfall in the San Francisco Bay Area

In the San Francisco Bay Area, precipitation occurs in the wintertime, mostly as rain. Wintertime rainfall can be further classified into cold or stratiform rain with a typical radar bright band signature and warm orographic rain with absence of a radar bright band. Vertical Pointing S-Band profiler radar and disdrometer measurements from two of NOAA’s Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) sites in California are used to study the differences in microphysical properties between these two types of rain and their implications in radar rainfall estimation. A methodology has been developed to discriminate non bright band (NBB) rainfall from bright band (BB) rainfall using reflectivity (Z) and differential reflectivity (Z <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">DR</sub> ) computed from disdrometer data. Delineating the two rainfall types in this way allowed for an algorithm to be applied to the radar scans to identify rainfall types and apply appropriate reflectivity based and specific differential phase (K <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">DP</sub> ) based rainfall estimators. Recently, a gap-filling X-Band weather radar with dual-polarization capabilities was deployed in the San Francisco Bay Area in Santa Rosa to aid in weather monitoring and provide high resolution Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) products. When applied to real radar observations, this method shows great potential for improving the QPE compared to traditional operational products which more often tend to underestimate rainfall in the California coastal region.

An Iterative Approach toward Development of Ensemble Visualization Techniques for High-Impact Winter Weather Hazards: Part II: Product Evaluation

Abstract We developed five prototype convection-allowing model ensemble visualization products with the goal of improving depictions of the timing of winter weather hazards. These products are interactive, web-based plots visualizing probabilistic onset times and durations of intense snowfall rates, probabilities of heavy snow at rush hour, periods of heightened impacts, and mesoscale snowband probabilities. Prototypes were evaluated in three experimental groups coordinated by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT), with a total of 53 National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters. Forecasters were asked to complete a simple forecast exercise for a snowfall event, with a control group using the Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) system viewer, and an experimental group using both the HREF viewer and the five experimental graphics. Forecast accuracy was similar between the groups, but the experimental group exhibited smaller mean absolute error for snowfall duration forecasts. A series of Likert-scale questions saw participants respond favorably to all of the products and indicated that they would use them in operational forecasts and in communicating information to core partners. Forecasters also felt that the new products improved their comprehension of ensemble spread and reduced the time required to complete the forecasting exercise. Follow-up plenary discussions reiterated that there is a high demand for ensemble products of this type, though a number of potential improvements, such as greater customizability, were suggested. Ultimately, we demonstrated that social science methods can be effectively employed in the atmospheric sciences to yield improved visualization products.

What Impact? Communicating Severity Forecast Information through the Winter Storm Severity Index

Abstract Communicating the threat of severe winter weather is not simply a matter of the number of inches of snow or degrees of cold; it also considers the potential impacts of the storm. The winter storm severity index (WSSI) is a graphical product from the National Weather Service that presents anticipated impacts from forecast winter weather for a range of winter conditions. To assess the utility of the WSSI and how an impact-based winter weather forecast product is interpreted and used to inform decision-making, a mixed-methods social science study was conducted by the Nurture Nature Center in coordination with the Weather Prediction Center. Through focus groups and surveys, testing in the Hydrometeorological Testbed, and iterations on design and category descriptions, several themes emerged about how professional stakeholders understand, interpret, and use this product for communicating about impending winter weather. There is perceived utility in the WSSI for situational awareness and as part of a package of other information to inform decision-making. However, there is variability in interpretations of impacts, resulting from differences in geography, community readiness, and experience, among other factors, which creates complications in communicating the forecast. Furthermore, many users seek quantities related to winter weather, suggesting that education about what impact-based products include and what data are shown is necessary. Understanding the factors that influence perspectives on impact levels and the variable needs for winter weather information across regions improves forecasters’ abilities to effectively communicate and provide critical information that helps end users prepare for severe winter weather. Significance Statement Effectively communicating severe winter weather is critical to supporting communities in being prepared for and mitigating weather-related losses and damages. The winter storm severity index focuses on impacts to provide awareness of impending winter weather, information that is useful but not always interpreted consistently, requiring an understanding of factors influencing perspectives on impact levels and user education.

A Path Toward Short-Term Probabilistic Flash Flood Prediction

Abstract There are ongoing efforts to move beyond the current paradigm of using deterministic products driven by observation-only data to make binary warning decisions. Recent works have focused on severe thunderstorm hazards, such as hail, lightning, and tornadoes. This study discusses one of the first steps toward having probabilistic information combined with convective-scale short-term precipitation forecasts available for the prediction and warning of flash flooding. Participants in the Hydrometeorology Testbed–MRMS Hydrology (HMT-Hydro) experiment evaluated several probabilistic-based hydrologic model output from the probabilistic Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (PRO-FLASH) system during experimental real-time warning operations. Evaluation of flash flood warning performance combined with product surveys highlighted how forecasters perceived biases within the probabilistic information and how the different probabilistic approaches influenced warnings that were verified versus those that were unverified. The incorporation of the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) ensemble precipitation forecasts into the PRO-FLASH product generation provided an opportunity to evaluate the first coupling of subhourly convective-scale ensemble precipitation forecasts with probabilistic hydrologic modeling at the flash flood warning time scale through archived case simulations. The addition of WoFS precipitation forecasts resulted in an increase in warning lead time, including four events with ≥29 min of additional lead time but with increased probabilities of false alarms. Additional feedback from participants provided insights into the application of WoFS forecasts into warning decisions, including how flash flood expectations and confidence evolved for verified flash flood events and how forecast probabilistic products can positively influence the communications of the potential for flash flooding.

The 23 June 2016 West Virginia Flash Flood Event as Observed through Two Hydrometeorology Testbed Experiments

AbstractThe flash flood event of 23 June 2016 devastated portions of West Virginia and west-central Virginia, resulting in 23 fatalities and 5 new record river crests. The flash flooding was part of a multiday event that was classified as a billion-dollar disaster. The 23 June 2016 event occurred during real-time operations by two Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) experiments. The Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) experiment focused on the 6–24-h forecast through the utilization of experimental high-resolution deterministic and ensemble numerical weather prediction and hydrologic model guidance. The HMT Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor Hydro (HMT-Hydro) experiment concentrated on the 0–6-h time frame for the prediction and warning of flash floods primarily through the experimental Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs product suite. This study describes the various model guidance, applications, and evaluations from both testbed experiments during the 23 June 2016 flash flood event. Various model outputs provided a significant precipitation signal that increased the confidence of FFaIR experiment participants to issue a high risk for flash flooding for the region between 1800 UTC 23 June and 0000 UTC 24 June. Experimental flash flood warnings issued during the HMT-Hydro experiment for this event improved the probability of detection and resulted in a 63.8% increase in lead time to 84.2 min. Isolated flash floods in Kentucky demonstrated the potential to reduce the warned area. Participants characterized how different model guidance and analysis products influenced the decision-making process and how the experimental products can help shape future national and local flash flood operations.

Verification Results from the 2017 HMT–WPC Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment

AbstractThe Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiment developed within the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) of the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is a pseudo-operational platform for participants from across the weather enterprise to test emerging flash flood forecasting tools and issue experimental forecast products. This study presents the objective verification portion of the 2017 edition of the experiment, which examines the performance from a variety of guidance tools (deterministic models, ensembles, and machine-learning techniques) and the participants’ forecasts, with occasional reference to the participants’ subjective ratings. The skill of the model guidance used in the FFaIR Experiment is evaluated using performance diagrams verified against the Stage IV analysis. The operational and FFaIR Experiment versions of the excessive rainfall outlook (ERO) are evaluated by assessing the frequency of issuances, probabilistic calibration, Brier skill score (BSS), and area under relative operating characteristic (AuROC). An ERO first-guess field called the Colorado State University Machine-Learning Probabilities method (CSU-MLP) is also evaluated in the FFaIR Experiment. Among convection-allowing models, the Met Office Unified Model generally performed optimally throughout the FFaIR Experiment when using performance diagrams (at the 0.5- and 1-in. thresholds; 1 in. = 25.4 mm), whereas the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), version 3, performed best subjectively. In terms of subjective and objective ensemble scores, the HRRR ensemble scored optimally. The CSU-MLP overpredicted lower risk categories and underpredicted higher risk categories, but it shows future promise as an ERO first-guess field. The EROs issued by the FFaIR Experiment forecasters had improved BSS and AuROC relative to the operational ERO, suggesting that the experimental guidance may have aided forecasters.

The Hydrometeorology Testbed–West Legacy Observing Network: Supporting Research to Applications for Atmospheric Rivers and Beyond

An observing network has been established along the United States west coast that provides up to 20 years of observations to support early warning, preparedness and studies of atmospheric rivers (ARs). The Hydrometeorology Testbed–West Legacy Observing Network, a suite of upper air and surface observing instruments, is now an official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) observing system with real-time data access provided via publicly available websites. This regional network of wind profiling radars and co-located instruments also provides observations of boundary layer processes such as complex-terrain flows that are not well depicted in the current operational rawindsonde and radar networks, satellites, or in high-resolution models. Furthermore, wind profiling radars have been deployed ephemerally for projects or campaigns in other areas, some with long records of observations. Current research uses of the observing system data are described as well as experimental products and services being transitioned from research to operations and applications. We then explore other ways in which this network and data library provide valuable resources for the community beyond ARs, including evaluation of high-resolution numerical weather prediction models and diagnosis of systematic model errors. Other applications include studies of gap flows and other terrain-influenced processes, snow level, air quality, winds for renewable energy and the predictability of cloudiness for solar energy industry.

Evaluation of Convection-Permitting Precipitation Forecast Products Using WRF, NMMB, and FV3 for the 2016–17 NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiments

Abstract During the summers of 2016 and 2017, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) ran real-time storm-scale ensemble forecasts (SSEFs) in support of the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) experiment. These forecasts, using WRF-ARW and Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model on the B-grid (NMMB) in 2016, and WRF-ARW and GFDL Finite Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3) in 2017, covered the contiguous United States at 3-km horizontal grid spacing, and supported the generation and evaluation of precipitation forecast products, including ensemble probabilistic products. Forecasts of 3-h precipitation accumulation are evaluated. Overall, the SSEF produces skillful 3-h accumulated precipitation forecasts, with ARW members generally outperforming NMMB members and the single FV3 member run in 2017 outperforming ARW members; these differences are significant at some forecast hours. Statistically significant differences exist in the performance, in terms of bias and ETS, among subensembles of members sharing common microphysics and PBL schemes. Year-to-year consistency is higher for PBL subensembles than for microphysical subensembles. Probability-matched (PM) ensemble mean forecasts outperform individual members, while the simple ensemble mean exhibits substantial bias. A newly developed localized probability-matched (LPM) ensemble mean product was produced in 2017; compared to the simple ensemble mean and the conventional PM mean, the LPM mean exhibits improved retention of small-scale structures, evident in both 2D forecast fields and variance spectra. Probabilistic forecasts of precipitation exceeding flash flood guidance (FFG) or thresholds associated with recurrence intervals (RI) ranging from 10 to 100 years show utility in predicting regions of flooding threat, but generally overpredict the occurrence of such events; however, they may still be useful in subjective flash flood risk assessment.

The HMT Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor Hydro Experiment

Abstract There are numerous challenges with the forecasting and detection of flash floods, one of the deadliest weather phenomena in the United States. Statistical metrics of flash flood warnings over recent years depict a generally stagnant warning performance, while regional flash flood guidance utilized in warning operations was shown to have low skill scores. The Hydrometeorological Testbed—Hydrology (HMT-Hydro) experiment was created to allow operational forecasters to assess emerging products and techniques designed to improve the prediction and warning of flash flooding. Scientific goals of the HMT-Hydro experiment included the evaluation of gridded products from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) and Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) product suites, including the experimental Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) model, the application of user-defined probabilistic forecasts in experimental flash flood watches and warnings, and the utility of the Hazard Services software interface with flash flood recommenders in real-time experimental warning operations. The HMT-Hydro experiment ran in collaboration with the Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) experiment at the Weather Prediction Center to simulate the real-time workflow between a national center and a local forecast office, as well as to facilitate discussions on the challenges of short-term flash flood forecasting. Results from the HMT-Hydro experiment highlighted the utility of MRMS and FLASH products in identifying the spatial coverage and magnitude of flash flooding, while evaluating the perception and reliability of probabilistic forecasts in flash flood watches and warnings. NSSL scientists and NWS forecasters evaluate new tools and techniques through real-time test bed operations for the improvement of flash flood detection and warning operations.

Evaluation of Multisensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimation in Russian River Basin

AbstractAn important goal of combining weather radar with rain gauge data is to provide reliable estimates of rainfall rate and accumulation and to further identify intense precipitation and issue flood warnings. Scanning radars provide the ability to observe precipitation over wider areas within shorter timeframes compared to rain gauges, leading to improved situational awareness and more accurate and reliable warnings of future precipitation and flooding events. The focus of this study is on evaluating the performance of the multi-radar multi-sensor (MRMS) system with and without the impact of a local gap filling radar. The challenge of using radar and rain gauges to provide accurate rainfall estimates in complex terrain is investigated. The area of interest is the Russian River basin north of San Francisco, CA, which lies within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT). In this complex mountainous terrain, the challenge of obtaining reliable quantitative...

Radar Rain-Rate Estimators and Their Variability due to Rainfall Type: An Assessment Based on Hydrometeorology Testbed Data from the Southeastern United States

AbstractS-band profiling (S-PROF) radar measurements from different southeastern U.S. Hydrometeorology Testbed sites indicated a frequent occurrence of rain that did not exhibit radar bright band (BB) and was observed outside the periods of deep-convective precipitation. This common nonbrightband (NBB) rain contributes ~15%–20% of total accumulation and is not considered as a separate rain type by current precipitation-segregation operational radar-based schemes, which separate rain into stratiform, convective, and, sometimes, tropical types. Collocated with S-PROF, disdrometer measurements showed that drop size distributions (DSDs) of NBB rain have much larger relative fractions of smaller drops when compared with those of BB and convective rains. Data from a year of combined DSD and rain-type observations were used to derive S-band-radar estimators of rain rate R, including those based on traditional reflectivity Ze and ones that also use differential reflectivity ZDR and specific differential phase KDP. Differences among same-type estimators for mostly stratiform BB and deep-convective rain were relatively minor, but estimators derived for the common NBB rain type were distinct. Underestimations in NBB rain-rate retrievals derived using other rain-type estimators (e.g., those for BB or convective rain or default operational radar estimators) for the same values of radar variables can be on average about 40%, although the differential phase-based estimators are somewhat less susceptible to DSD details. No significant differences among the estimators for the same rain type derived using DSDs from different observational sites were present despite significant separation and differing terrain. Identifying areas of common NBB rain could be possible from Ze and ZDR measurements.

Wind Profilers to Aid with Monitoring and Forecasting of High-Impact Weather in the Southeastern and Western United States

Abstract With funding provided by the 2012 Disaster Relief Act (Sandy Supplemental), NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division has installed three Doppler wind-profiling radars and surface meteorology towers along the U.S. Gulf and southeast coasts to help detect and monitor landfalling tropical storms and other high-impact weather events. This same combination of instruments has been used to monitor landfalling atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast. For this reason, we refer to the whole collection of instruments at each site as an Atmospheric River Observatory (ARO). These three new AROs supported by the Sandy Supplemental complement a fourth ARO deployed in coastal North Carolina as part of NOAA’s Hydrometeorology Testbed Southeast Pilot Study. These four AROs were installed in time to capture the 2014 hurricane season and will be operated through the 2015 hurricane season.

Improving Flash Flood Forecasts: The HMT-WPC Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment

Abstract Despite advancements in numerical modeling and the increasing prevalence of convection-allowing guidance, flash flood forecasting remains a substantial challenge. Accurate flash flood forecasts depend not only on accurate quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), but also on an understanding of the corresponding hydrologic response. To advance forecast skill, innovative guidance products that blend meteorology and hydrology are needed, as well as a comprehensive verification dataset to identify areas in need of improvement. To address these challenges, in 2013 the Hydrometeorological Testbed at the Weather Prediction Center (HMT-WPC), partnering with the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) and the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), developed and hosted the inaugural Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (FFaIR) Experiment. In its first two years, the experiment has focused on ways to combine meteorological guidance with available hydrologic information. One example of this is the creation of neighborhood flash flood guidance (FFG) exceedance probabilities, which combine QPF information from convection-allowing ensembles with flash flood guidance; these were found to provide valuable information about the flash flood threat across the contiguous United States. Additionally, WPC has begun to address the challenge of flash flood verification by developing a verification database that incorporates observations from a variety of disparate sources in an attempt to build a comprehensive picture of flash flooding across the nation. While the development of this database represents an important step forward in the verification of flash flood forecasts, many of the other challenges identified during the experiment will require a long-term community effort in order to make notable advancements.

The Impacts of California’s San Francisco Bay Area Gap on Precipitation Observed in the Sierra Nevada during HMT and CalWater

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow regions of enhanced water vapor transport, usually found on the warm-sector side of the polar cold front in many midlatitude storms formed primarily over the oceans. Nonbrightband (NBB) rain is a shallow orographic rainfall process driven by collision and coalescence that has been observed in some of these storms. NBB rain accounts for about one-third, on average, of the total winter season rainfall occurring at a coastal mountain site in Northern California. During the California Energy Commission’s CalWater project, nearly the same fraction of NBB rain was observed at a northern Sierra Nevada foothills site as compared to the coastal mountains, whereas less than half of the fractional amount of NBB rain was observed at a southern Sierra Nevada foothills site. Both Sierra Nevada sites often experience terrain-induced blocked flow, that is, Sierra barrier jet (SBJ) during landfalling winter storms. However, the northern Sierra Nevada site often is oriented geographically downwind of a gap in the coastal terrain near San Francisco during AR landfall. This gap allows maritime air in the AR to arrive at the northern site and enhance the collision–coalescence process in orographic feeder clouds as compared with the southern site. As a result, a greater amount and intensity of NBB rain and overall precipitation was produced at the northern site. This study uses a variety of observations collected in the coastal and Sierra Nevada ranges from the Hydrometeorology Testbed and CalWater field campaigns to document this behavior. A detailed case study provides additional context on the interaction between AR flow, the SBJ, and precipitation processes.

Downscaling Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) Soil Moisture Retrievals Using a Multiple Time-Scale Exponential Rainfall Adjustment Technique

Hydrologic response at all resolutions is controlled by physical processes. Accurately capturing the physical process at a high-resolution is essential for down scaling many satellite observations at coarse resolutions. In this paper, a four-dimensional process representative soil moisture downscaling model is developed to downscale the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) 25 km resolution soil moisture product. The model is composed of the calculation of an antecedent precipitation accumulation (APA) index to capture soil moisture spatial and temporal variations at the 500 m resolution, and the application of a Geographic Information System (GIS) to simulate physical processes which can regulate soil moisture changes throughout the watersheds. APA index, as a representation of the provisional value of soil moisture, is calculated by adopting an exponential formulation to synthesize the effects of infiltration, soil evaporative efficiency, and vegetation resistance on soil water content following precipitation. Five days of AMSR-E soil moisture derivatives spanning the start of the monsoon and the duration of the storm are selected for downscaling. The results show that soil moisture spatial variation is primarily controlled by the distribution of precipitation and soil properties. Subsequently relative soil moisture, radiation, and vegetation become significant in controlling landsurface fluxes and thus influence soil moisture variation as time progresses. The downscaled soil moisture data (500 m resolution) are assessed using in-situ soil moisture measurements from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Southwest Watershed Research Center (SWRC) Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) observing networks. The root mean square error (RMSE) between the disaggregated and in-situ soil moisture is 0.034 vol./vol. with percent bias (PBIAS) 0.85%. The overall R2 value is 0.788.

Extreme Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center from 2001 to 2011

Abstract Extreme quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) performance is baselined and analyzed by NOAA’s Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) using 11 yr of 32-km gridded QPFs from NCEP’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC). The analysis uses regional extreme precipitation thresholds, quantitatively defined as the 99th and 99.9th percentile precipitation values of all wet-site days from 2001 to 2011 for each River Forecast Center (RFC) region, to evaluate QPF performance at multiple lead times. Five verification metrics are used: probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), critical success index (CSI), frequency bias, and conditional mean absolute error (MAEcond). Results indicate that extreme QPFs have incrementally improved in forecast accuracy over the 11-yr period. Seasonal extreme QPFs show the highest skill during winter and the lowest skill during summer, although an increase in QPF skill is observed during September, most likely due to landfalling tropical systems. Seasonal extreme QPF skill decreases with increased lead time. Extreme QPF skill is higher over the western and northeastern RFCs and is lower over the central and southeastern RFC regions, likely due to the preponderance of convective events in the central and southeastern regions. This study extends the NOAA HMT study of regional extreme QPF performance in the western United States to include the contiguous United States and applies the regional assessment recommended therein. The method and framework applied here are readily applied to any gridded QPF dataset to define and verify extreme precipitation events.

Quantitative precipitation estimation for an X-band dual-polarization radar in the complex mountainous terrain

This paper characterizes the applied science issues related to radar-rainfall estimation in the complex mountainous terrain and presents Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) retrieved from X-band dual-polarization radar measurements. Data collected from the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) in orographic (mountainous) terrain of California are used to develop and test the QPE methodology. Based on retrieved specific differential phase, rainfall estimation was performed using data obtained from the NOAA polarimetric X-band radar and evaluated using observations of the HMT ground instruments, including rain gauges. The results indicate that the technique works well for the limited number of events that are described herein.

An Examination of Meteorological and Soil Moisture Conditions in the Babocomari River Basin before the Flood Event of 2008

Abstract The NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) program has deployed a soil moisture observing network in the Babocomari River basin located in southeastern Arizona. The Babocomari River is a major tributary of the San Pedro River. At 0000 UTC 23 July 2008, the second-highest flow during the period of record was measured just upstream of the location where the Babocomari River joins the main channel of the San Pedro River. Upper-air and surface meteorological observations and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) satellite images of integrated water vapor were used to establish the synoptic and mesoscale conditions that existed before the flood occurred. The analysis indicates that a weak Gulf of California surge initiated by Hurricane Fausto transported a warm moist tropical air mass into the lower troposphere over southern Arizona, setting the stage for the intense, deep convection that initiated the flooding on the Babocomari River. Observations of soil moisture and precipitation at five locations in the basin and streamflow measured at two river gauging stations enabled the documentation of the hydrometeorological conditions that existed before the flooding occurred. The observations suggest that soil moisture conditions as a function of depth, the location of semi-impermeable layers of sedimentary rock known as caliche, and the spatial distribution of convective precipitation in the basin confined the flooding to the lower part of the basin. Finally, the HMT soil moisture observations are compared with soil moisture products from the NOAA/NWS/NCEP Noah land surface model.

Precipitation Classification and Quantification Using X-Band Dual-Polarization Weather Radar: Application in the Hydrometeorology Testbed

Abstract This paper presents new methods for rainfall estimation from X-band dual-polarization radar observations along with advanced techniques for quality control, hydrometeor classification, and estimation of specific differential phase. Data collected from the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) in orographic terrain of California are used to demonstrate the methodology. The quality control and hydrometeor classification are specifically developed for X-band applications, which use a “fuzzy logic” technique constructed from the magnitude of the copolar correlation coefficient and the texture of differential propagation phase. In addition, an improved specific differential phase retrieval and rainfall estimation method are also applied. The specific differential phase estimation is done for both the melting region and rain region, where it uses a conventional filtering method for the melting region and a self-consistency-based method that distributes the total differential phase consistent with the reflectivity factor for the rain region. Based on the specific differential phase, rainfall estimations were computed using data obtained from the NOAA polarimetric X-band radar for hydrometeorology (HYDROX) and evaluated using HMT rain gauge observations. The results show that the methodology works well at capturing the high-frequency rainfall variations for the events analyzed herein and can be useful for mountainous terrain applications.

The Emergence of Weather-Related Test Beds Linking Research and Forecasting Operations

Test beds have emerged as a critical mechanism linking weather research with forecasting operations. The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) was formed in the 1990s to help identify key gaps in research related to major weather prediction problems and the role of observations and numerical models. This planning effort ultimately revealed the need for greater capacity and new approaches to improve the connectivity between the research and forecasting enterprise. Out of this developed the seeds for what is now termed “test beds.” While many individual projects, and even more broadly the NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) Modernization, were successful in advancing weather prediction services, it was recognized that specific forecast problems warranted a more focused and elevated level of effort. The USWRP helped develop these concepts with science teams and provided seed funding for several of the test beds described. Based on the varying NOAA mission requirements for forecasting, differences in the organizational structure and methods used to provide those services, and differences in the state of the science related to those forecast challenges, test beds have taken on differing characteristics, strategies, and priorities. Current test bed efforts described have all emerged between 2000 and 2011 and focus on hurricanes (Joint Hurricane Testbed), precipitation (Hydrometeorology Testbed), satellite data assimilation (Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation), severe weather (Hazardous Weather Testbed), satellite data support for severe weather prediction (Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition Center), mesoscale modeling (Developmental Testbed Center), climate forecast products (Climate Testbed), testing and evaluation of satellite capabilities [Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series (GOES-R) Proving Ground], aviation applications (Aviation Weather Testbed), and observing system experiments (OSSE Testbed).