Hydrological Sensitivity Research Articles

Timescale Dependence of the Precipitation Response to CO2‐Induced Warming in Millennial‐Length Climate Simulations

AbstractPrevious work has shown that estimates of climate sensitivity vary over time in response to abrupt CO2 forcing in climate model simulations. The energy fluxes that drive warming in response to increasing CO2 also influence precipitation, which prompts the question: Does the precipitation response therefore also vary over time? We investigate by examining the response of precipitation to warming forced by greenhouse gases—the hydrological sensitivity—in a set of millennial‐length climate simulations with multiple climate models, Long Run Model Intercomparison Project (LongRunMIP). We compare hydrological sensitivity calculated from three different timescales of the simulations: years 1–20, 21–150, and 151–1000. We show that the hydrological sensitivity lacks a consistent dependence on timescale, in contrast to climate sensitivity. Decomposition of the surface energy budget reveals that the relative muting of the multi‐model mean hydrological sensitivity is driven by surface downwelling shortwave flux.

Hybrid hydrological modeling for large alpine basins: a semi-distributed approach

Abstract. Alpine basins are important water sources for human life, and reliable hydrological modeling can enhance the water resource management in alpine basins. Recently, hybrid hydrological models, coupling process-based models and deep learning (DL), have exhibited considerable promise in hydrological simulations. However, a notable limitation of existing hybrid models lies in their failure to incorporate spatial information within the basin and describe alpine hydrological processes, which restricts their applicability in hydrological modeling in large alpine basins. To address this issue, we develop a set of hybrid semi-distributed hydrological models by employing a process-based model as the backbone and utilizing embedded neural networks (ENNs) to parameterize and replace different internal modules. The proposed models are tested on three large alpine basins on the Tibetan Plateau. A climate perturbation method is further used to test the applicability of the hybrid models to analyze the hydrological sensitivities to climate change in large alpine basins. Results indicate that proposed hybrid hydrological models can perform well in predicting runoff processes and simulating runoff component contributions in large alpine basins. The optimal hybrid model with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSEs) higher than 0.87 shows comparable performance to state-of-the-art DL models. The hybrid model also exhibits remarkable capability in simulating hydrological processes at ungauged sites within the basin, markedly surpassing traditional distributed models. In addition, the results also show reasonable patterns in the analysis of the hydrological sensitivities to climate change. Overall, this study provides a high-performance tool enriched with explicit hydrological knowledge for hydrological prediction and improves our understanding about the hydrological sensitivities to climate change in large alpine basins.

Combining Temperature and Precipitation to Constrain the Aerosol Contribution to Observed Climate Change

Abstract Using the past to improve future predictions requires an understanding and quantification of the individual climate contributions to the observed climate change by aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs), which is hindered by large uncertainties in aerosol forcings and responses across climate models. To estimate historical aerosol responses, we apply detection and attribution methods to attribute a joint change in temperature and precipitation to forcings by combining signals of observed changes in tropical wet and dry regions, the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry, global mean temperature (GMT), and global mean land precipitation (GMLP). Fingerprints representing the climate response to aerosols (AERs) and the remaining external forcings (noAER; mostly GHG) are derived from large ensembles of historical single- and ALL-forcing simulations from three models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and selected using a perfect model study. Results from an imperfect model study and a hydrological sensitivity analysis support combining our choice of temperature and precipitation fingerprints into a joint study. We find that diagnostics including temperature and precipitation slightly better constrain the noAER signal than diagnostics based purely on temperature or GMT-only and allow for the attribution of AER cooling (even when GMT is not included in the fingerprint). These results are robust across fingerprints from different climate models. Estimated contributions for AER and noAER agree with other published estimates including those from the most recent IPCC report. Finally, we attribute the best estimate of 0.46 K ([−0.86, −0.05] K) of aerosol-induced cooling and 1.63 K ([1.26, 2.00] K) of noAER warming in 2010–19 relative to 1850–1900 using the combined signals of GMT and GMLP. Significance Statement Aerosols are small liquid or solid airborne particles. They are predominantly the secondary result of emissions of aerosol precursor gases emitted via industrial or natural processes. While greenhouse gases warm the climate, aerosols can have a cooling effect on the climate system, thus offsetting some of the greenhouse gas–related warming. We expect greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere to continue to increase, while aerosol concentrations are likely going to decline due to their impacts on human health. Our study uses observed temperature and precipitation changes to quantify how much aerosols have offset warming from past greenhouse gas emissions. This can help constrain future predictions of global warming.

Constraining Regional Hydrological Sensitivity Over Tropical Oceans

AbstractRegional hydrological sensitivity (i.e., precipitation change per degree local surface warming) contributes substantially to the uncertainty in future precipitation projections over tropical oceans. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of relative precipitation (P*, precipitation divided by the basin average precipitation) to local sea surface temperature (SST) change by dissecting it into three components, namely the sensitivity of P* to relative SST (SSTrel, SST minus the tropical mean SST) changes, the sensitivity of P* to surface convergence changes, and the sensitivity of surface convergence to SST gradient changes. We show that the relationships between P* and SSTrel, and between P*, surface convergence, and SST gradients are largely constant during climate change. This allows us to constrain regional hydrological sensitivity based on present‐day SST‐precipitation relationships. The sensitivity of surface convergence to SST gradient changes is a main source of uncertainty in regional hydrological sensitivity and is likely underestimated in GCMs.

PyEt v1.3.1: a Python package for the estimation of potential evapotranspiration

Abstract. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a crucial flux of the hydrological water balance, commonly estimated using (semi-)empirical formulas. The estimated flux may strongly depend on the formula used, adding uncertainty to the outcomes of environmental studies using ET. Climate change may cause additional uncertainty, as the ET estimated by each formula may respond differently to changes in meteorological input data. To include the effects of model uncertainty and climate change and facilitate the use of these formulas in a consistent, tested, and reproducible workflow, we present PyEt. PyEt is an open-source Python package for the estimation of daily potential evapotranspiration (PET) using available meteorological data. It allows the application of 20 different PET methods on both time series and gridded datasets. The majority of the implemented methods are benchmarked against literature values and tested with continuous integration to ensure the correctness of the implementation. This article provides an overview of PyEt's capabilities, including the estimation of PET with 20 PET methods for station and gridded data, a simple procedure for calibrating the empirical coefficients in the alternative PET methods, and estimation of PET under warming and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration. Further discussion on the advantages of using PyEt estimates as input for hydrological models, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, and hindcasting and forecasting studies (especially in data-scarce regions) is provided.

Global analysis of forest tipping points leading to changing water cycle dynamics

Forest cover loss is increasing at unprecedented rates, affecting the hydrologic systems of major freshwater-producing regions of the world. However, quantification of the tipping points of forest cover loss before hydrologic changes manifest and their impact in water yield and climatic conditions has remained elusive. In this study, we aim to systematically document the critical thresholds of tree cover loss leading to changing hydrologic functioning within regions that experienced extensive drought, fire, or clear-cutting events spanning different climates during the period from 2001 to 2016. Using the Hydrologic Sensitivity Index based on Budyko’s curve, we analyzed the changes in hydrologic responses to climate variability as landcover changes across the affected forests. Critical thresholds were derived by fitting Richard’s Curve function to the observed relationship between growing sensitive area and tree cover loss. Our analysis reveals decrease in water yields and warming trends during the early stages of tree cover loss in tropical forests (c = 16 %), with negative anomalies observed in rainforests of Central Africa and Maritime Southeast Asia. Boreal forests also show low thresholds (c = 18 %) with a strong tendency toward a warmer climate state and no clear tendency in water yields. Mixed forests show moderate thresholds (c = 25 %) with unclear water yield and climate trends. Conversely, Temperate forests exhibit the most resilience to hydrologic regime shifts with high critical thresholds of tree cover loss (c = 46––54 %), but a rapid alteration once their threshold is surpassed resulting primarily in increased water yields and a shift toward cooler climate conditions. As the potential for additional tree cover loss heightens, due to expected increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and wildfires, the analyses presented provides a quantitative framework to monitor and assess the impacts of changing forest cover conditions on the water cycle behavior of some of the largest freshwater producing regions of the world.

Hydro-climatic extremes shift the hydrologic sensitivity regime in a cold basin

Escalating climate extreme events disrupt hydrological processes by affecting both water availability and sediment dynamics. However, the interconnection between hydrological variability and climatic extremes remains underexplored, particularly in cold regions under a changing climate. Here, we develop a yield-based dichotomy framework to examine the impact of shifted climatic extreme patterns on hydrological regimes in the Ishikari River Basin (IRB), Hokkaido, Japan, which is a crucial area for local agriculture and urban development. Utilizing a modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) integrated with downscaled CMIP6-GCM climate projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, we identified significant annual variability in water and sediment yields associated with extreme climate events. Hot-dry conditions correlate with lower water and sediment yields, whereas increased cold extremes may result in higher sediment yields across the IRB. Our findings also indicate that hotter and drier patterns interact with hydrological processes, potentially establishing new hydrologic regimes and shifting climatic extremes-induced thresholds for yield classification within the IRB. Notably, under SSP585, both water availability and sediment transport are projected to intensify, increasing flood risks and exacerbating sedimentation challenges. Our study highlights the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies to address these anticipated changes in hydrological regimes in response to global climate change.

Optimizing placement of bioretention systems in the US Puget Sound region

AbstractThe Puget Sound Basin, US Pacific Northwest, is experiencing rapid population and urban growth. This growth adversely impacts local ecosystems, especially the spawning and rearing habitat for several salmonid species. Sustainable urban design strategies such as green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) are required in the region to manage stormwater onsite when new development occurs. However, the effectiveness of any GSI depends on its location relative to where stormwater is produced. This study aimed to develop a Geographic Information System (GIS)‐based framework for the optimal placement of GSI, specifically bioretention systems. We computed the Hydrologic Sensitivity Index (λHSI, indicating runoff generation potential at a landscape location) for the lower Puyallup River Watershed study area. The index and federal and state feasibility criteria were used to identify suitable sites for bioretention systems. The suitability of identified sites was verified through ground‐truthing, including soil sampling and infiltration testing. We found that 2.5% of the watershed area was suitable for bioretention, concentrated in the center and north of the study watershed. The method described in this study can be readily applied to watersheds for which spatial data (topography, soil, and land use) are available. We recommend choosing locations with high λHSI when resources are limited since these locations contribute most to runoff generation and urban flooding.

Crucial role of sea surface temperature warming patterns in near-term high-impact weather and climate projection

Recent studies indicate that virtually all global climate models (GCMs) have had difficulty simulating sea surface temperature (SST) trend patterns over the past four decades. GCMs produce enhanced warming in the eastern Equatorial Pacific (EPAC) and Southern Ocean (SO) warming, while observations show intensified warming in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) and slight cooling in the eastern EPAC and SO. Using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s latest higher resolution atmospheric model and coupled prediction system, we show the model biases in SST trend pattern have profound implications for near-term projections of high-impact storm statistics, including the frequency of atmospheric rivers (AR), tropical storms (TS) and mesoscale convection systems (MCS), as well as for hydrological and climate sensitivity. If the future SST warming pattern continues to resemble the observed pattern from the past few decades rather than the GCM simulated/predicted patterns, our results suggest (1) a drastically different future projection of high-impact storms and their associated hydroclimate changes, especially over the Western Hemisphere, (2) a stronger global hydrological sensitivity, and (3) substantially less global warming due to stronger negative feedback and lower climate sensitivity. The roles of SST trend patterns over the EPAC, IPWP, SO, and the North Atlantic tropical cyclone Main Development Region (AMDR) are isolated, quantified, and used to understand the simulated differences. Specifically, SST trend patterns in the EPAC and AMDR are crucial for modeled differences in AR and MCS frequency, while those in the IPWP and AMDR are essential for differences in TS frequency over the North Atlantic.

Historical sensible-heat-flux variations key to predicting future hydrologic sensitivity

Under anthropogenic climate change (CC), the global hydrological cycle intensifies at a rate known as hydrologic sensitivity (HS). Global climate models (GCMs) exhibit substantial uncertainty in HS. Past work suggests that another form of HS, derived from internal climate variability (IV), is useful for constraining this uncertainty. However, these two forms of HS are weakly related. Here we show that decomposing HS under both CC and IV, based on the global energy budget, provides insight into the likely range of future HS. We find that sensible heat exchange between the atmosphere and ocean is not accounted for in the atmospheric energy budget under IV, masking the connection between HS under IV and CC. Removing this term, a closer relationship emerges. We use observations in conjunction with this relationship to suggest an upward shift in the likely range of future HS (66% confidence interval: 2.00–2.36 W m−2 K−1).

Hydrologic Sensitivity of a Critical Turkish Watershed to Inform Water Resource Management in an Altered Climate

This study introduces a novel sensitivity analysis approach to assess the resilience and susceptibility of hydrologic systems to the stresses of climate change, moving away from conventional top-down methodologies. By exploring the hydrological sensitivity of the upper Kızılırmak River basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we employed a sensitivity-based approach as an alternative to the traditional Global Climate Model (GCM)-based methods, providing more insightful information for water managers. Considering the consistent projections of increasing temperature over this region in GCMs, the hydrologic system was perturbed to examine gradients of a more challenging climate characterized by warming and drying conditions. The sensitivity of streamflow, snow water equivalent, and evapotranspiration to temperature (T) and precipitation (P) variations under each perturbation or “reference” climate was quantified. Results indicate that streamflow responds to T negatively under all warming scenarios. As the reference climates become drier, streamflow sensitivity to P increases, indicating that meteorological drought impacts on water availability could be exacerbated. These results suggest that there will be heightened difficulty in managing water resources in the region if it undergoes both warming and drying due to the following setbacks: (1) water availability will shift away from the summer season of peak water demand due to the warming effects on the snowpack, (2) annual water availability will likely decrease due to a combination of warming and lower precipitation, and (3) streamflow sensitivity to hydroclimatic variability will increase, meaning that there will be more extreme impacts to water availability. Water managers will need to plan for a larger set of extreme conditions.

Diverging hydrological sensitivity among tropical basins

Diverging hydrological sensitivity among tropical basins

Assessment of Water Resources under Climate Change in Western Hindukush Region: A Case Study of the Upper Kabul River Basin

This study aims to estimate the surface runoff and examine the impact of climate change on water resources in the Upper Kabul River Basin (UKRB). A hydrological model was developed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) from 2009 to 2019. The monthly calibration was conducted on streamflow in six stations for the period from 2010 to 2016, and the results were validated from 2017 to 2018 based on available observed data. The hydrological sensitivity parameters were further prioritized using SWAT-CUP. The uncertainty of the model was analyzed by the 95% Prediction Uncertainty (95PPU). Future projections were analyzed for the 2040s (2030–2049) and 2090s (2080–2099) compared to the baseline period (1986–2005) under two representation concentration pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were bias-corrected using the linear scaling bias correction method. The modeling results exhibited a very reasonable fit between the estimated and observed runoff in different stations, with NS values ranging from 0.54 to 0.91 in the calibration period. The future mean annual surface runoff exhibited an increase in the 2040s and 2090s compared to the baseline under both RCPs of 4.5 and 8.5 due to an increase in annual precipitation. The annual precipitation is projected to increase by 5% in the 2040s, 1% in the 2090s under RCP4.5, and by 9% in the 2040s and 2% in the 2090s under RCP8.5. The future temperature is also projected to increase and consequently lead to earlier snowmelt, resulting in a shift in the seasonal runoff peak to earlier months in the UKRB. However, the shifts in the timing of runoff could lead to significant impacts on water availability and exacerbate the water stress in this region, decreasing in summer runoff and increasing in the winter and spring runoffs. The future annual evapotranspiration is projected to increase under both scenarios; however, decreases in annual snowfall, snowmelt, sublimation, and groundwater recharge are predicted in the UKRB.

Efficiency of global precipitation datasets in tropical and subtropical catchments revealed by large sampling hydrological modelling

Satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation products are widely adopted as complementary information to in situ measurements for estimating river discharge using hydrological modelling. However, there is still a notable research gap in the literature associated with assessing the accuracy of satellite-based or reanalysis products in different tropical and sub-tropical catchments at large-sampling hydrological modelling with sensitivity analysis. We investigated the accuracy of precipitation, hydrological model performance and parameter sensitivity related to seven precipitation data sets based on satellite and reanalysis products, i.e., CHIRPS, TRMM, GLDAS, IMERG, MERRA-2, PERSIANN-CDR, and ERA5 over 714 contrasting tropical and subtropical catchments located in Brazil. We used the Génie Rural Journalier 4 (GR4J) hydrological model to simulate the hydrological processes of the different catchments with two approaches for the calibration: using measured ground-based precipitation data (approach I) or using each individual satellite/reanalysis precipitation products (approach II) to calibrate the models. The results showed that the precipitation products tend to overestimate precipitation, with the exception of ERA5 and MERRA-2. CHIRPS is the only product that produces unbiased precipitation estimates for most catchments. The model calibration using each precipitation product individually improved the hydrological model performance. CHIRPS, IMERG, and MERRA-2 showed good accuracy in terms of both, precipitation estimation and hydrological simulation performance in the calibration period. In the validation period, the best products in terms of KGE were CHIRPS, IMERG and TRMM (KGE > 0.64). The errors in precipitation products are better compensated via hydrological modelling in wet regions. The model parameter sensitivity varies according to precipitation input, climate, and catchment aridity. Overall, all seven products exhibited their worst hydrological performance in arid regions. This study helps to improve our understanding of the catchment response in tropical and subtropical regions while also providing key insights into the reliability of satellite/reanalysis rainfall products for streamflow simulation. This study is valuable in hydrometeorological applications, climate change assessment, water resources and disaster management, especially in regions with a relatively sparse density of precipitation stations.

Constraints on regional projections of mean and extreme precipitation under warming

The projected changes in the hydrological cycle under global warming remain highly uncertain across current climate models. Here, we demonstrate that the observational past warming trend can be utilized to effectively co1nstrain future projections in mean and extreme precipitation on both global and regional scales. The physical basis for such constraints relies on the relatively constant climate sensitivity in individual models and the reasonable consistency of regional hydrological sensitivity among the models, which is dominated and regulated by the increases in atmospheric moisture. For the high-emission scenario, on the global average, the projected changes in mean precipitation are lowered from 6.9 to 5.2% and those in extreme precipitation from 24.5 to 18.1%, with the inter-model variances reduced by 31.0 and 22.7%, respectively. Moreover, the constraint can be applied to regions in middle-to-high latitudes, particularly over land. These constraints result in spatially resolved corrections that deviate substantially and inhomogeneously from the global mean corrections. This study provides regionally constrained hydrological responses over the globe, with direct implications for climate adaptation in specific areas.

Glaciers determine the sensitivity of hydrological processes to perturbed climate in a large mountainous basin on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract. The major rivers on the Tibetan Plateau supply important freshwater resources to riparian regions but have been undergoing significant climate change in recent decades. Understanding the sensitivities of hydrological processes to climate change is important for water resource management, but large divergences exist in previous studies because of the uncertainties of hydrological models and climate projection data. Meanwhile, the spatial pattern of local hydrological sensitivities was poorly explored despite the strong heterogeneity on the Tibetan Plateau. This study adopted the climate perturbation method to analyze the hydrological sensitivities of a typical large mountainous basin (Yarlung Tsangpo River, YTR) to climate change. We utilized the tracer-aided hydrological model Tsinghua Representative Elementary Watershed-Tracer-aided version (THREW-T) to simulate the hydrological and cryospheric processes in the YTR basin. Multiple datasets and internal stations were used to validate the model to provide confidence in the baseline simulation and the sensitivity analysis. Results indicated that (1) the THREW-T model performed well in simulating the streamflow, snow cover area (SCA), glacier mass balance (GMB) and stream water isotope, ensuring good representation of the key cryospheric processes and a reasonable estimation of the runoff components. The model performed acceptably in simulating the streamflow at eight internal stations located in the mainstream and two major tributaries, indicating that the spatial pattern of hydrological processes was reflected by the model. (2) Increasing temperature led to decreasing annual runoff, smaller inter-annual variation, more even intra-annual distribution and an earlier maximum runoff. It also influenced the runoff regime by increasing the contributions of rainfall and glacier melt overland runoff but decreasing the subsurface runoff and snowmelt overland runoff. Increasing precipitation had the opposite effect to increasing temperature. (3) The local runoff change in response to increasing temperature varied significantly, with a changing rate of −18.6 % to 54.3 % for 5∘ of warming. The glacier area ratio (GAR) was the dominant factor in the spatial pattern of hydrological sensitivities to both perturbed temperature and precipitation. Some regions had a non-monotonic runoff change rate in response to climate perturbation, which represented the most dynamic regions within the basin, as they kept shifting between energy- and water-limited stages. The GAR and mean annual precipitation (MAP) of the non-monotonic regions had a linear relation and formed the boundary of regions with different runoff trends in the GAR–MAP plot.

Testing sensitivity of BILAN and GR2M models to climate conditions in the Gambia River Basin

Abstract This study investigates the performance of two lumped hydrological models, BILAN and GR2M, in simulating runoff across six catchments in the Gambia River Basin (Senegal) over a 30-year period employing a 7-year sliding window under different climatic conditions. The results revealed differences in overall performance and variable sensitivity of the models to hydrological conditions and calibration period lengths, stemming from their different structure and complexity. In particular, the BILAN model, which is based on a more complex set of parameters, showed better overall results in simulating dry conditions, while the GR2M model had superior performance in wet conditions. The study emphasized the importance of the length of the calibration period on model performance and on the reduction of uncertainty in the results. Extended calibration periods for both models narrowed the range of the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) values and reduced the loss of performance during the parameter transfer from calibration to validation. For the BILAN model, a longer calibration period also significantly reduced the variability of performance metric values. Conversely, for the GR2M model, the variability rate did not decrease with the length of the calibration periods. Testing both models under variable conditions underscored the crucial role of comprehending model structure, hydrological sensitivity, and calibration strategy effects on simulation accuracy and uncertainty for reliable results.

High‐Resolution, Multiproxy Speleothem Record of the 8.2 ka Event From Mainland Southeast Asia

AbstractThe 8.2 ka event is the most significant global climate anomaly of the Holocene epoch, but a lack of records from Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) currently limits our understanding of the spatial and temporal extent of the climate response. A newly developed speleothem record from Tham Doun Mai Cave, Northern Laos provides the first high‐resolution record of this event in MSEA. Our multiproxy record (δ18O, δ13C, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, and petrographic data), anchored in time by 9 U‐Th ages, reveals a significant reduction in local rainfall amount and weakening of the monsoon at the event onset at ∼8.29 ± 0.03 ka BP. This response lasts for a minimum of ∼170 years, similar to event length estimates from other speleothem δ18O monsoon records. Interestingly, however, our δ13C and Mg/Ca data, proxies for local hydrology, show that abrupt changes to local rainfall amounts began decades earlier (∼70 years) than registered in the δ18O. Moreover, the δ13C and Mg/Ca also show that reductions in rainfall continued for at least ∼200 years longer than the weakening of the monsoon inferred from the δ18O. Our interpretations suggest that drier conditions brought on by the 8.2 ka event in MSEA were felt beyond the temporal boundaries defined by δ18O‐inferred monsoon intensity, and an initial wet period (or precursor event) may have preceded the local drying. Most existing Asian Monsoon proxy records of the 8.2 ka event may lack the resolution and/or multiproxy information necessary to establish local and regional hydrological sensitivity to abrupt climate change.

Modelling the regional sensitivity of snowmelt, soil moisture, and streamflow generation to climate over the Canadian Prairies using a basin classification approach

Abstract. This study evaluated the effects of climate perturbations on snowmelt, soil moisture, and streamflow generation in small Canadian Prairies basins using a modelling approach based on classification of basin biophysical characteristics. Seven basin classes that encompass the entirety of the Prairies Ecozone in Canada were determined by cluster analysis of these characteristics. Individual semi-distributed virtual basin (VB) models representing these classes were parameterized in the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) platform, which includes modules for snowmelt and sublimation, soil freezing and thawing, actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture dynamics, groundwater recharge, and depressional storage dynamics including fill and spill runoff generation and variable connected areas. Precipitation (P) and temperature (T) perturbation scenarios covering the range of climate model predictions for the 21st century were used to evaluate climate sensitivity of hydrological processes in individual land cover and basin types across the Prairies Ecozone. Results indicated that snow accumulation in wetlands had a greater sensitivity to P and T than that in croplands and grasslands in all basin types. Wetland soil moisture was also more sensitive to T than the cropland and grassland soil moisture. Jointly influenced by land cover distribution and local climate, basin-average snow accumulation was more sensitive to T in the drier and grassland-characterized basins than in the wetter basins dominated by cropland, whilst basin-average soil moisture was most sensitive to T and P perturbations in basins typified by pothole depressions and broad river valleys. Annual streamflow had the greatest sensitivities to T and P in the dry and poorly connected Interior Grasslands (See Fig. 1) basins but the smallest in the wet and well-connected Southern Manitoba basins. The ability of P to compensate for warming-induced reductions in snow accumulation and streamflow was much higher in the wetter and cropland-dominated basins than in the drier and grassland-characterized basins, whilst decreases in cropland soil moisture induced by the maximum expected warming of 6 ∘C could be fully offset by a P increase of 11 % in all basins. These results can be used to (1) identify locations which had the largest hydrological sensitivities to changing climate and (2) diagnose underlying processes responsible for hydrological responses to expected climate change. Variations of hydrological sensitivity in land cover and basin types suggest that different water management and adaptation methods are needed to address enhanced water stress due to expected climate change in different regions of the Prairies Ecozone.

Little Change in Apparent Hydrological Sensitivity at Large CO2 Forcing

AbstractApparent hydrological sensitivity (ηa), the change in the global mean precipitation per degree K of global surface warming, is a key aspect of the climate system's response to increasing CO2 forcing. To determine whether ηa depends on the forcing amplitude we analyze idealized experiments over a broad range of abrupt CO2 forcing, from 2× to 8× preindustrial values, with two distinct climate models. We find little change in ηa between 2× and 4×CO2, and almost no change beyond 5×CO2. We validate this finding under transient CO2 forcing at 1%‐per‐year, up to 8×CO2. We further corroborate this result by analyzing the 1%‐per‐year output of more than 15 CMIP5/6 models. Lastly, we examine the 1,000‐year long LongrunMIP model output, and again find little change in ηa. This wealth of results demonstrates that ηa is a very weak function of CO2 forcing.