Hydroclimate Reconstructions Research Articles

Reconstruction of temperature and hydroclimate in Serling Co (Central Tibet) since the last deglaciation

Understanding the past climatic conditions and their possible driving mechanism can contribute to better constrain future climate projection, and to provide potential insights into the disputed Holocene temperature variations. In this study, we quantitatively reconstruct the mean annual air temperature (MAAT) of Serling Co since 17.3 cal kyr BP using a novel terrestrial thermometer (ring index of OH-GDGTs, RI-OH), and reconstructed the hydroclimatic evolutionary history in combination with n-alkanes and their associated proxies. Our temperature records indicate that Serling Co experienced a period of reduced temperatures during the Younger Dryas event, approximately 6 °C cooler than the present conditions. Subsequently, there was a rapid warming phase, leading to peak temperatures in the early Holocene, roughly 5.5 °C warmer than the modern MAAT, followed by a protracted cooling trend during the subsequent middle and late Holocene. The temperature and hydroclimate trends at Serling Co exhibit a synchronized evolutionary pattern since the last deglaciation, featuring an optimal hydrothermal combination in the early Holocene. This period witnessed the peak productivity of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, followed by a gradual decline. Summer insolation emerges as a primary controlling factor for temperature variations, with Indian Summer Monsoon intensity and internal climate system variability exerting dominance over atmospheric moisture and precipitation variations in the region.

The collapse of the Ming Dynasty actually began with the Wanli megadrought: Insights from a hydroclimate reconstruction based on tree-ring δ18O over the past 460 years

Climate change has played a pivotal role in shaping Chinese history, especially during the Ming Dynasty. Previous studies have focused primarily on the Chongzhen megadrought, which is widely considered as the primary climatic perturbation behind the demise of the Ming Dynasty. However, relatively little is known about other severe drought events and their potential impact on the dynasty collapse. Additionally, the characteristics of an exceptional climatic anomaly termed the “Late Ming Weak Monsoon Period” are unclear. In this study, we reconstructed the historical variations of Palmer Drought Severity Index for July–September based on tree-ring stable oxygen isotopes (δ18O) from 1556 CE to 2015 CE in southwest Chinese Loess Plateau. Our study reveals a significant weakening of the Asian summer monsoon between 1561 CE and 1661 CE, consistent with the Late Ming Weak Monsoon Period, and unravels its structural characteristics in detail. Our reconstruction also captures a distinct humidification trend over northwest China since the early 2000s. Notably, in addition to the well-known Chongzhen megadrought, our study records the severe Wanli megdrought (1585–1590 CE) during the late Ming Dynasty, an event that rarely featured in earlier studies, exhibiting comparable duration and severity to the Chongzhen megadrought. Further analysis indicates that Wanli megadrought may have served as an early trigger for the collapse of the Ming Dynasty. Furthermore, our analysis implicates the El Niño–Southern Oscillation as a contributing factor in both the Wanli and Chongzhen megadroughts, and thus to the ultimate collapse of the Ming Dynasty by affecting the Asian summer monsoon intensity.

South American monsoon intensification during the last millennium driven by joint Pacific and Atlantic forcing

The South American summer monsoon (SASM) profoundly influences tropical South America’s climate, yet understanding its low-frequency variability has been challenging. Climate models and oxygen isotope data have been used to examine the SASM variability over the last millennium (LM) but have, at times, provided conflicting findings, especially regarding its mean-state change from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age. Here, we use a paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) method, combining model results and δ 18 O observations, to produce a δ 18 O-enabled, dynamically coherent, and spatiotemporally complete austral summer hydroclimate reconstruction over the LM for tropical South America at 5-year resolution. This reconstruction aligns with independent hydroclimate and δ 18 O records withheld from the DA, revealing a centennial-scale SASM intensification during the MCA-LIA transition period, associated with the southward shift of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone and the strengthening Pacific Walker circulation (PWC). This highlights the necessity of accurately representing the PWC in climate models to predict future SASM changes.

Decoupled terrestrial temperature and hydroclimate during the Plio-Pleistocene in the East Asian monsoonal region

The independent reconstructions of temperature and hydroclimate records are crucial to understanding past changes in Earth's climate. However, the temperature and hydroclimate history of East Asia during the late Cenozoic remains largely unknown. Here, we reconstructed terrestrial temperature and hydroclimate patterns in the East Asian monsoonal regions using GDGTs (glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers) in a sediment core from North China spanning 5.5 million years (Ma). Our data show a decoupled terrestrial temperature and hydroclimate evolution over the past 5.5 Ma. The methylation index of branched GDGTs (brGDGTs), i.e. MBT'5ME-inferred temperature, significantly decreases at ∼2.6 Ma and likely reflects a response to Northern Hemisphere glaciation (NHG), in agreement with multiple marine temperature records. The MBT'5ME temperature record shows a decline of approximately 6.5 °C at around 2.6 Ma, which is larger than the decline recorded in marine sequences. Interestingly, this temperature decline occurs much later than the large GDGT-inferred (i.e., Ri/b and GDGT-0/Cren) increase in rainfall at ∼4.0 Ma, which aligns with the strengthening of Pacific zonal and meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients as well as the increased marine-land temperature gradients. Our study thus suggests differing mechanisms driving temperature and hydroclimate evolution in East Asia during the Plio-Pleistocene.

Evolution of megadrought and pluvial events in the Qaidam Basin and Hexi Corridor, Northwest China, during the period 455–2100 CE

AbstractMillennium‐long hydroclimate reconstructions in the Qaidam Basin (QB) and Hexi Corridor (HXC) suggest markedly differing moisture change trends between the two regions in the 20th century; however, it remains unclear whether these current moisture states are exceptional in a long‐term context, and how megadrought and pluvial events have evolved in these regions. Here, we used previously published historical hydroclimate reconstructions combined with model‐based future moisture simulations to assess past, current and future hydroclimate anomalies in a long‐term context (i.e., 455–2100 CE), and investigate the evolution of megadrought and pluvial events. Compared with the QB, moisture variability in the HXC was higher and more prone to the occurrence of severe and long‐lasting megadrought and pluvial events. Megadroughts in the QB mainly occurred in the Little Ice Age (1200–1800 CE) accompanied by lower temperatures, whereas in the HXC, megadroughts mostly occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (800–1200 CE) accompanied by higher temperatures. The Significant Zero crossing of derivatives (SiZer) and Time of Emergence (TOE) analyses were used to reveal the initiation of recent humidity changes and the duration above the natural variability threshold. We found that the QB has experienced a significant wetting trend since the middle of the 20th century, with this trend exceeding the range of natural hydroclimate variability in 1975 CE. The HXC became drier from the early 20th century, but has become wetter since the late 20th century; this trend may exceed the natural hydroclimate variability range by 2032 CE. We also found that the duration and severity of megadrought and pluvial events are positively correlated in each region. Given the higher past hydrological variability in the HXC compared with the QB, our study implies that future extreme hydrological events are more likely to occur in the former of these two regions.

A multi-centennial drought reconstruction from tree-rings reveals a growing threat to Christmas Island’s water resources

Small islands that depend on limited freshwater resources are at significant risk from seasonal drought, which poses a major threat to both their ecosystems and communities. Christmas Island, located in the eastern Indian Ocean, presents an example for which severe drought conditions during the wet season not only affects its freshwater resources but also biodiversity on the island, including the migration pattern of the iconic red crab species. However, short-term instrumental climate records on this island make it hard to quantify drought variability and assess its associated risks. Tree growth is affected by drought via reduced soil moisture, and hydroclimate reconstruction from tree-ring chronologies can therefore provide longer-term information on historical variability of dry and wet periods. Here, we reconstructed the wet season (December-May) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) for Christmas Island using 64 remote tree-ring chronologies from Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. scPDSI was reconstructed using the Point-to-Point Regression (PPR) method and compared with regional marine coral proxies for independent verification. The remote tree-ring chronologies explained more than 66 percent of scPDSI variance (R-squared) over the calibration period. The trees identified as significant predictors in the regression model were primarily located in areas affected by the Indo-Pacific climate drivers including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The reconstructions span 1540 CE to 2000. During the first four centuries of this period, the frequency of extreme (5th percentile) droughts and pluvial events rarely exceeded one event per 13 years. In contrast, the frequency of both extremes experienced an unprecedented increase during the 20th century, and with a notable shift towards dry conditions. These findings highlight a significant shift towards more frequent and severe dry conditions during the wet season on Christmas Island, posing a challenge to water resource management and potentially threatening the island's ecosystem and services to the community.

Role of Pacific Ocean climate in regulating runoff in the source areas of water transfer projects on the Pacific Rim

Over the past two decades, more frequent and intense climate events have seriously threatened the operation of water transfer projects in the Pacific Rim region. However, the role of climatic change in driving runoff variations in the water source areas of these projects is unclear. We used tree-ring data to reconstruct changes in the runoff of the Hanjiang River since 1580 CE representing an important water source area for China’s south-north water transfer project. Comparisons with hydroclimatic reconstructions for the southwestern United States and central Chile indicated that the Pacific Rim region has experienced multiple coinciding droughts related to ENSO activity. Climate simulations indicate an increased likelihood of drought occurrence in the Pacific Rim region in the coming decades. The combination of warming-induced drought stresses with dynamic El Niño (warming ENSO) patterns is a thread to urban agglomerations and agricultural regions that rely on water transfer projects along the Pacific Rim.

Decoupling Warming and Monsoon Precipitation Over the Last 3110 Years in Northwestern Yunnan Province, Southwestern China

AbstractUnderstanding the variability and related dynamic mechanisms of the Indian summer monsoon evolution over the past millenniums is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation in the context of strengthening global warming. Here, we present a high‐resolution hydroclimate reconstruction over the past 3110 years in northwestern Yunnan Province, southwestern China, based on grain size analysis using the End‐member modeling algorithm and other environmental proxies. The results indicate that the temperature in northwestern Yunnan Province generally decreased since 3110 cal. yr BP, aligning with other temperature records on regional and global scales. Precipitation in the study area remained relatively stable before 1000 cal. yr BP, but exhibited an obvious out‐phase change compared with the temperature records over multidecadal to centennial timescale. While after 1000 cal. yr BP, the precipitation steadily increased, revealing the hydroclimate pattern of notably dry Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and relatively wet Little Ice Age (LIA) in the study area. The decoupling combination of temperature and precipitation spanning the MWP and LIA in southwestern China contrasts with that in the East Asian summer monsoon area and the Indian subcontinent which is also controlled by the Indian summer monsoon, indicating the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation in the Asian summer monsoon region. The discussion about dynamic mechanisms points out that solar activity emerges as a significant factor influencing regional temperature changes, and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Intertropical Convergence Zone migration jointly impact the precipitation change in the study area and the hydroclimate discrepancy in the Asian summer monsoon region.

SISALv3: a global speleothem stable isotope and trace element database

Abstract. Palaeoclimate information on multiple climate variables at different spatiotemporal scales is becoming increasingly important to understand environmental and societal responses to climate change. A lack of high-quality reconstructions of past hydroclimate has recently been identified as a critical research gap. Speleothems, with their precise chronologies, widespread distribution, and ability to record changes in local to regional hydroclimate variability, are an ideal source of such information. Here, we present a new version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and AnaLysis database (SISALv3), which has been expanded to include trace element ratios and Sr isotopes as additional, hydroclimate-sensitive geochemical proxies. The oxygen and carbon isotope data included in previous versions of the database have been substantially expanded. SISALv3 contains speleothem data from 365 sites from across the globe, including 95 Mg/Ca, 85 Sr/Ca, 52 Ba/Ca, 25 U/Ca, 29 P/Ca, and 14 Sr-isotope records. The database also has increased spatiotemporal coverage for stable oxygen (892) and carbon (620) isotope records compared with SISALv2 (which consists of 673 and 430 stable oxygen and carbon records, respectively). Additional meta information has been added to improve the machine-readability and filtering of data. Standardized chronologies are included for all new entities along with the originally published chronologies. Thus, the SISALv3 database constitutes a unique resource of speleothem palaeoclimate information that allows regional to global palaeoclimate analyses based on multiple geochemical proxies, permitting more robust interpretations of past hydroclimate and comparisons with isotope-enabled climate models and other Earth system and hydrological models. The database can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.5287/ora-2nanwp4rk (Kaushal et al., 2024).

Northeastern Caribbean Rainfall Variability Linked to Solar and Volcanic Forcing

AbstractWe present a 500‐year precipitation‐sensitive record based on co‐varying speleothem δ18O values and Mg/Ca ratios from Larga cave in Puerto Rico. This multi‐proxy record shows that the evolution of rainfall in the northeastern Caribbean was characterized by alternating centennial dry and wet phases corresponding to reduced versus enhanced convective activity. These phases occurred synchronous with relatively cool and warm tropical Atlantic sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs), respectively. While the observed pattern suggests a close link of northeastern Caribbean rainfall to the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, a regional comparison reveals intermittent regional heterogeneity especially on decadal timescales, which may be related to a superimposing influence of the Pacific and Atlantic basins. Furthermore, the speleothem‐based hydroclimate reconstruction indicates a significant volcanic impact during the past two centuries, and further reveals a potential solar signal in the preceding three centuries. We posit that the forcing likely shifted from solar to volcanic during the eighteenth century in being an important source of multidecadal to centennial Caribbean rainfall variability. The link between convective rainfall and natural forcing may be explained through a modulation of SST variations in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

A tree ring-based spring temperature reconstruction for the Hindu Kush region in northern Pakistan

Annually resolved and absolutely dated proxy archives are necessary for contextualizing the rate and amplitude of anthropogenic climate change. High-resolution climate reconstructions are particularly important for remote regions where instrumental meteorological observations are limited in space and time. Here, we develop a robust, 260-year-long tree-ring width chronology from 32 Himalayan cedars (Cedrus deodara D. Don), which grew around 3000 m asl in the Kumrat Valley of the Hindu Kush region in northern Pakistan. Growth-climate response analyses reveal a significant negative correlation of -0.631 between our new standard chronology and March-April minimum temperatures (p < 0.001, n = 51). This inverse relationship between radial tree growth and early spring temperatures, together with positive correlations against precipitation totals at the onset of the growing season, suggest that warming-induced drought is the most limiting factor of sub-alpine forest growth in the Kumrat Valley. We then use the inverse growth-temperature association to reconstruct March-April minimum temperatures from 1812 to 2018 CE. The reconstruction explains 40 % of the instrumental record back to 1967, and exhibits the coldest and warmest spring conditions in 1815–1864 (6.67 ± 0.21°C) and 1918–1927 (8.11 ± 0.43°C), respectively. This pioneering study is indicative of the dendroclimatological potential in the Hindu Kush, where samples from living and relict trees of different species and elevational bands should be collected for advanced temperature and hydroclimate reconstructions.

A global compilation of diatom silica oxygen isotope records from lake sediment – trends and implications for climate reconstruction

Abstract. Oxygen isotopes in biogenic silica (δ18OBSi) from lake sediments allow for quantitative reconstruction of past hydroclimate and proxy-model comparison in terrestrial environments. The signals of individual records have been attributed to different factors, such as air temperature (Tair), atmospheric circulation patterns, hydrological changes, and lake evaporation. While every lake has its own local set of drivers of δ18O variability, here we explore the extent to which regional or even global signals emerge from a series of paleoenvironmental records. This study provides a comprehensive compilation and combined statistical evaluation of the existing lake sediment δ18OBSi records, largely missing in other summary publications (i.e. PAGES network). For this purpose, we have identified and compiled 71 down-core records published to date and complemented these datasets with additional lake basin parameters (e.g. lake water residence time and catchment size) to best characterize the signal properties. Records feature widely different temporal coverage and resolution, ranging from decadal-scale records covering the past 150 years to records with multi-millennial-scale resolution spanning glacial–interglacial cycles. The best coverage in number of records (N = 37) and data points (N = 2112) is available for Northern Hemispheric (NH) extratropical regions throughout the Holocene (roughly corresponding to Marine Isotope Stage 1; MIS 1). To address the different variabilities and temporal offsets, records were brought to a common temporal resolution by binning and subsequently filtered for hydrologically open lakes with lake water residence times &lt; 100 years. For mid- to high-latitude (&gt; 45° N) lakes, we find common δ18OBSi patterns among the lake records during both the Holocene and Common Era (CE). These include maxima and minima corresponding to known climate episodes, such as the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), Neoglacial Cooling, Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). These patterns are in line with long-term air temperature changes supported by previously published climate reconstructions from other archives, as well as Holocene summer insolation changes. In conclusion, oxygen isotope records from NH extratropical lake sediments feature a common climate signal at centennial (for CE) and millennial (for Holocene) timescales despite stemming from different lakes in different geographic locations and hence constitute a valuable proxy for past climate reconstructions.

Increasing prevalence of hot drought across western North America since the 16th century.

Across western North America (WNA), 20th-21st century anthropogenic warming has increased the prevalence and severity of concurrent drought and heat events, also termed hot droughts. However, the lack of independent spatial reconstructions of both soil moisture and temperature limits the potential to identify these events in the past and to place them in a long-term context. We develop the Western North American Temperature Atlas (WNATA), a data-independent 0.5° gridded reconstruction of summer maximum temperatures back to the 16th century. Our evaluation of the WNATA with existing hydroclimate reconstructions reveals an increasing association between maximum temperature and drought severity in recent decades, relative to the past five centuries. The synthesis of these paleo-reconstructions indicates that the amplification of the modern WNA megadrought by increased temperatures and the frequency and spatial extent of compound hot and dry conditions in the 21st century are likely unprecedented since at least the 16th century.

Concurrent Asian monsoon strengthening and early modern human dispersal to East Asia during the last interglacial.

The relationship between initial Homo sapiens dispersal from Africa to East Asia and the orbitally paced evolution of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM)-currently the largest monsoon system-remains underexplored due to lack of coordinated synthesis of both Asian paleoanthropological and paleoclimatic data. Here, we investigate orbital-scale ASM dynamics during the last 280 thousand years (kyr) and their likely influences on early H. sapiens dispersal to East Asia, through a unique integration of i) new centennial-resolution ASM records from the Chinese Loess Plateau, ii) model-based East Asian hydroclimatic reconstructions, iii) paleoanthropological data compilations, and iv) global H. sapiens habitat suitability simulations. Our combined proxy- and model-based reconstructions suggest that ASM precipitation responded to a combination of Northern Hemisphere ice volume, greenhouse gas, and regional summer insolation forcing, with cooccurring primary orbital cycles of ~100-kyr, 41-kyr, and ~20-kyr. Between ~125 and 70 kyr ago, summer monsoon rains and temperatures increased in vast areas across Asia. This episode coincides with the earliest H. sapiens fossil occurrence at multiple localities in East Asia. Following the transcontinental increase in simulated habitat suitability, we suggest that ASM strengthening together with Southeast African climate deterioration may have promoted the initial H. sapiens dispersal from their African homeland to remote East Asia during the last interglacial.

A Link Between Hydroclimate Variability and Biomass Burning During the Last Millennium in the Interior Pacific Northwest

AbstractWe present oxygen isotope and charcoal accumulation records from two lakes in eastern Washington that have sufficient temporal resolution to quantitatively compare with tree‐ring records and meteorological data. Hydroclimate reconstructions from tree‐rings and lake sediments show close correspondence after accounting for seasonal‐ to centennial‐ scale temporal sensitivities. Carbonate δ18O measurements from Castor and Round lakes reveal that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) experienced wetter November‐March conditions than the Little Ice Age (LIA). Charcoal records from Castor, Round, and nearby lakes show elevated fire activity during the LIA compared to the MCA. Increased multidecadal hydroclimate variability after 1250 CE is evident in proxy records throughout western North America. In the Upper Columbia River Basin, multidecadal wet periods during the LIA may have enhanced fuel loads that burned in subsequent dry periods. A notable decline in biomass burning occurred with Euro‐American settlement in the late nineteenth century.

Workshop report: PlioWest – drilling Pliocene lakes in western North America

Abstract. The Pliocene Epoch is a focus of scientific interest as a period of sustained global warmth, with reconstructed CO2 concentrations and a continent configuration similar to modern. Numerous studies suggest that the Pliocene was warmer and largely wetter than today, at least in the subtropics, which contrasts with the long-term hydroclimatic response of drying conditions predicted by most climate model simulations. Two key features of Pliocene warmth established from sea surface temperature reconstructions could affect dynamic changes that influence the hydrologic cycle: (1) a weaker Pliocene zonal gradient in sea surface temperature (SST) between the western and eastern equatorial Pacific resembling El Niño-like conditions and (2) polar-amplified Pliocene warmth, supporting a weaker Equator-to-pole temperature gradient. The distribution of wet conditions in western North America and the timing of late Pliocene–Quaternary aridification offer the potential to evaluate the relative roles of these two external forcings of the climate in western North America, with broader global implications for Mediterranean-type climate (MTC) regions. We convened a virtual ICDP workshop that spanned a 2-week period in September 2021, to choose optimal drill sites and legacy cores to address the overall scientific goals, flesh out research questions, and discuss how best to answer them. A total of 56 participants from 12 countries (17 time zones), representing a wide range of disciplines, came together virtually for a series of plenary and working group sessions. We have chosen to study five basins (Butte Valley, Tule Lake, Lake Idaho, Searles Lake, and Verde Valley) that span 7 ∘ of latitude to test our hypotheses and to reconstruct the evolution of western North American hydroclimate with special focus on the time ranges of 4.5–3.5 and 3–2.5 Myr. Although individual Pliocene lake records occur in many areas of the world, the western North American basins are unique and globally significant as deep perennial freshwater Pliocene lakes latitudinally arrayed in a MTC region and are able to capture a response to Pacific forcing. We propose new drill cores from three of these basins. During the workshop, we discussed the stratigraphy and subsurface structure of each basin and revised the chronological frameworks and the basin-to-basin correlations. We also identified the best-suited proxies for hydroclimate reconstructions for each particular basin and put forward a multi-technique strategy for depth–age modeling. Reconstructions based on data from these sites will complement the SST reconstructions from global sites spanning the last 4.5 Ma and elucidate the large-scale hydrological cycle controls associated with both global warming and cooling.

Inter-tree correlation and climatic response of tree-ring δ18O in Chinese fir: Implications for cross-dating and climatic reconstruction in Central East China

The availability of both ancient and modern wood samples enables the Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) in Central East China to become a potential tree species for dendroclimatic reconstruction over the Common Era. However, the potential of using tree-ring α-cellulose oxygen isotope ratios (δ18OTRC) in Chinese fir for the purposes of cross-dating and climatic reconstruction remains unexplored. Here we presented three δ18OTRC chronologies (1954–2006 CE) for the whole-ring (δ18OWR), earlywood (δ18OEW), and latewood (δ18OLW) in Chinese fir. The results indicated that the δ18OWR had the highest correlation among individual trees. Using the δ18OWR instead of the conventionally employed TRW can facilitate the cross-dating procedure. The δ18OWR, δ18OEW, and δ18OLW exhibited the strongest relationships with the hydroclimate variables during the entire (June–September), early (June–July), and late (August–September) summer, respectively. The climate conditions preceding the growing season had a stronger influence on δ18OEW than δ18OLW. Using the δ18OWR and δ18OEW to reconstruct the hydroclimate variations may result in greater bias than the use of δ18OLW. Our study demonstrated that the δ18OTRC in Chinese fir from Central East China has the potential for cross-dating and summer hydroclimate reconstruction.

Machine Learning Solutions to Regional Surface Ocean δ18O‐Salinity Relationships for Paleoclimatic Reconstruction

AbstractStable isotope‐based reconstructions of past ocean salinity and hydroclimate depend on accurate, regionally constrained relationships between the stable oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw) and salinity in the surface ocean. An increasing number of δ18Osw observations suggest greater spatial variability in this relationship than previously considered, highlighting the need to reassess these relationships on a global scale. Here, we use available, paired δ18Osw and salinity data (N = 11,119) to create global interpolations of each variable. We then use a self‐organizing map, a specialized form of machine learning, to define 19 regions with unique δ18Osw‐salinity relationships in the surface (&lt;50 m) ocean. Inclusion of atmospheric moisture‐related variables and oceanic tracer data in additional self‐organizing map experiments indicates global surface δ18Osw‐salinity spatial patterns are strongly forced by the atmosphere, as the SOM spatial output is highly similar despite no overlapping input data. Our approach is a useful update to the previously delimited regions, and highlights the utility of neural network pattern extraction in spatiotemporally sparse data sets.

Hydroclimate reconstructions in the Suguta Valley, northern Kenya, during the Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition

The Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition (EMPT) between 1200 and 700 ka represents a major global climate transition from dominantly 41,000- to 100,000-year glacial cycles. The forces and mechanisms behind this transition and the response of African environments are not well understood. The active volcanism and tectonics of the East African Rift System add complexity to local environmental systems and can erase important proxy records, inhibiting studies of lacustrine dynamics. As a result, there is minimal understanding of how this transition impacted the region's lake systems. At Paleolake Suguta, in the northern Kenya Rift, however, flood basalts cap lacustrine EMPT-age deposits, preserving these strata and their valuable paleoenvironmental record. This research presents a high-resolution reconstruction of hydrological change from approximately 931 to 831 ka within the Suguta-Turkana Basin in the northern Kenya Rift. Paleolake dynamics are reconstructed from a 41 m sedimentary section using diatom morphology, sedimentology, and X-Ray Fluorescence elemental analysis. Results show that lake levels varied greatly during this part of the EMPT with two wetter phases and two drier phases developing over about 100 kyr. From ∼885–831 ka, especially, the Suguta-Turkana Basin exhibits rapid changes in paleohydrology, ranging between deep stratified lakes; shallow, well-mixed lakes; and complete desiccation, with some of these changes occurring on an order of hundreds of years. This EMPT Suguta-Turkana-Baringo record therefore provides valuable insight into hydroclimate variability at an overall resolution of several thousand years, allowing reconstruction of past environments during a period of poorly understood terrestrial environmental change.

Tree rings in Tsuga dumosa reveal increasing drought variability in subtropical southwest China over the past two centuries

High-resolution palaeoclimate proxy records have been lacking for the subtropical region of southwest China. To gain insights into hydroclimate variability in central Yunnan Province, we constructed a tree ring-width chronology of Tsuga dumosa from the Wuliang Mountain area. Correlation analysis shows that moisture availability is predominantly the limiting factor on radial growth, particularly during the spring-early summer season. Using a well-calibrated regression model (R2 = 0.36, p < 0.001), we reconstructed the March–June Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for the period from 1826 to 2020 CE. Eleven extreme drought years (1860, 1897, 1958, 1960, 1979, 1984, 1987, 2006, 2010, 2013, and 2019) were identified, with most of them confirmed by historical evidence. The reconstruction series shows inter-annual to inter-decadal variations and an increasing occurrence of severe dry or wet events in the recent past, particularly during the last 50 years. Our drought reconstruction series shows high frequency cycle of 2–8 years. Spatial correlations indicate that our drought reconstruction captures hydrological signals over a larger area. In line with this, the reconstructed dry periods exhibit broad consistency with other tree-ring based drought reconstructions conducted in nearby regions. Our findings demonstrate the potential of tree-ring proxies for hydroclimate reconstruction in the subtropical areas of southwest China and provide crucial information for evaluating long-term climate change in this region.