Hybrid Model Of Artificial Neural Network Research Articles

A proposed hybrid model of ANN and KNN for solar cell defects detection and temperature prediction using fuzzy image segmentation

This paper presents a novel hybrid model employing Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Mathematical Morphology (MM) for the effective detection of defects in solar cells. Focusing on issues such as broken corners and black edges caused by environmental factors like broken glass cover, dust, and temperature variations. This study utilizes a hybrid model of ANN and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) for temperature prediction. This hybrid approach leverages the strengths of both models, potentially opening up new avenues for improved accuracy in temperature forecasting, which is critical for solar energy applications. The significance lies in the interconnectedness of temperature fluctuations and solar cell efficiency, leading to defects. The proposed model aims to predict temperatures accurately, providing insights into potential solar cell efficiency problems. Subsequently, this work studies the transitions to defect detection using Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering and MM techniques. The hybrid model demonstrates accurate temperature prediction with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values of 0.92 %, 0.72 %, and 1.3 % for average, maximum, and minimum temperatures, respectively. The defect detection process yields a detection accuracy (CR) of 96 % and sensitivity of detection (SD) of 89 %. This work is validated compared to the literature work done and by using K-fold cross validation technique. The proposed work emphasizes the improvement in defect detection accuracy and the overall quality enhancement of solar cells.

Modeling and simulation of the enzymatic kinetics for the production of Galactooligosaccharides (GOS) using an Artificial Neural Network hybrid model

Due to the complexity of biochemical systems, the development of traditional phenomenological models is limited if the underlying mechanics are not entirely known. As an alternative, hybrid model frameworks, consisting of data-driven models complemented with first principles models like conservation law, are starting to be used for complex systems. In this work, a comparison of the modeling capabilities between a data-driven model and a hybrid model was developed. The enzymatic production of Galactooligosaccharides (GOS) with the effect of metallic ions was considered as case study. Compared with the experimental results, predictions from data-driven model achieve an R2 of 0.9188 in the best training fold, and the hybrid model an R2 of 0.9696 in the best training fold. Illogical predictions were avoided by including non-phenomenological first-principles constraints into the hybrid model. Finally, an optimization analysis was carried out to find the highest GOS productivity using the hybrid model, optimization results present a deviation of 5.99 % compared to the highest productivity found from experimental data.

Socio-economic correlation analysis and hybrid artificial neural network model development for provincial waste electrical and electronic equipment generation forecasting in China

Ability to forecast the waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) generation can help formulate a robust future WEEE management system. Previous studies applied forecasting models, such as the grey model and artificial neural networks, to predict WEEE generation from a country perspective, leading to less accurate forecasts due to huge socio-economic differences in rural and urban areas. Additionally, there has been the incompatibility of a single forecasting model for all WEEE types, and this remained a research gap. Taking advantage of respective forecasting models, this study presents a hybrid model, Grey Artificial Neural Network, to forecast the WEEE generation of 31 province-level regions in China while evaluating the socio-economic analysis of seven WEEE types via Pearson correlation analysis. More than 70% of WEEE from province-level regions strongly correlates (R > ±0.8) with the gross domestic product and the population, whereas some top WEEE-generating province-level regions (i.e., Tianjin and Shanghai) correlate weakly to moderately. The root mean square error and mean absolute error of the developed Grey Artificial Neural Network hybrid model are the lowest at 8.29 and 6.48, compared to the grey model (13.53 and 11.13) and back-propagation neural network (9.21 and 7.22). Though the Grey Artificial Neural Network hybrid model has the lowest error, posterior mean square deviation ratio analysis indicates that this hybrid model is only suitable for washing machines, refrigerators, color televisions, and personal computers (urban area), while the back-propagation neural network is suitable for monochrome televisions, air conditioners, and personal computers (rural area). Compared to 2019, it is projected that an additional 32.92 M units of WEEE will be generated by 2025, suggesting that China should build at least 15 extra recycling centers (14% more based on 2016) to handle the increased WEEE generation. This study provides policy implications for effective WEEE monitoring and collection systems to build resilient WEEE management.

Akurasi Model Hybrid ARIMA-Artificial Neural Network dengan Model Non Hybrid pada Peramalan Peredaran Uang Elektronik di Indonesia

The purpose of this study is to model electronic money in Indonesia using a hybrid model and compare its accuracy with the non-hybrid model. The hybrid model used is Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)-Artificial Neural Network. The data used is the amount of electronic money circulation for the monthly period January 2009 to October 2021. The ARIMA model formed from research data is ARIMA (1,1,0) with additive outliers and level shift outliers. For Artificial Neural Network modeling is limited by using one hidden layer with three neurons. In the modeling process, 20 repetitions were carried out. The smallest repetition value was obtained, namely the 13th repetition with an error value of 2.569. In this study, it was found that the ARIMA- Artificial Neural Network hybrid model had a smaller Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) in sample and out sample than the non-hybrid model. Based on the results of the study, it can be concluded that by combining the ARIMA model with Artificial Neural Network, it can increase the accuracy of the data fit results and forecast results.

PCA-Based Hybrid Intelligence Models for Estimating the Ultimate Bearing Capacity of Axially Loaded Concrete-Filled Steel Tubes.

In order to forecast the axial load-carrying capacity of concrete-filled steel tubular (CFST) columns using principal component analysis (PCA), this work compares hybrid models of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and meta-heuristic optimization algorithms (MOAs). In order to create hybrid ANN models, a dataset of 149 experimental tests was initially gathered from the accessible literature. Eight PCA-based hybrid ANNs were created using eight MOAs, including artificial bee colony, ant lion optimization, biogeography-based optimization, differential evolution, genetic algorithm, grey wolf optimizer, moth flame optimization and particle swarm optimization. The created ANNs’ performance was then assessed. With R2 ranges between 0.7094 and 0.9667 in the training phase and between 0.6883 and 0.9634 in the testing phase, we discovered that the accuracy of the built hybrid models was good. Based on the outcomes of the experiments, the generated ANN-GWO (hybrid model of ANN and grey wolf optimizer) produced the most accurate predictions in the training and testing phases, respectively, with R2 = 0.9667 and 0.9634. The created ANN-GWO may be utilised as a substitute tool to estimate the load-carrying capacity of CFST columns in civil engineering projects according to the experimental findings.

Water Level Prediction through Hybrid SARIMA and ANN Models Based on Time Series Analysis: Red Hills Reservoir Case Study

Reservoir water level (RWL) prediction has become a challenging task due to spatio-temporal changes in climatic conditions and complicated physical process. The Red Hills Reservoir (RHR) is an important source of drinking and irrigation water supply in Thiruvallur district, Tamil Nadu, India, also expected to be converted into the other productive services in the future. However, climate change in the region is expected to have consequences over the RHR’s future prospects. As a result, accurate and reliable prediction of the RWL is crucial to develop an appropriate water release mechanism of RHR to satisfy the population’s water demand. In the current study, time series modelling technique was adopted for the RWL prediction in RHR using Box–Jenkins autoregressive seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN) hybrid models. In this research, the SARIMA model was obtained as SARIMA (0, 0, 1) (0, 3, 2)12 but the residual of the SARIMA model could not meet the autocorrelation requirement of the modelling approach. In order to overcome this weakness of the SARIMA model, a new SARIMA–ANN hybrid time series model was developed and demonstrated in this study. The average monthly RWL data from January 2004 to November 2020 was used for developing and testing the models. Several model assessment criteria were used to evaluate the performance of each model. The findings showed that the SARIMA–ANN hybrid model outperformed the remaining models considering all performance criteria for reservoir RWL prediction. Thus, this study conclusively proves that the SARIMA–ANN hybrid model could be a viable option for the accurate prediction of reservoir water level.

PMU-Based Voltage Stability Measurement Under Contingency Using ANN

An artificial neural network (ANN) is an effective and efficient approach for solving problems, which require fast and complicated computation. The study proposed a PMU measurement-based voltage stability monitoring and assessment using ANN hybrid model for the evaluation of voltage stability margin. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) optimizes the meta-parameter of ANNs for improving its convergence rate. This model helps in real-time monitoring of long-term voltage stability to avoid grid blackout. The power system security is generally defined based on the single contingency “N−1” criterion, meaning normal system minus one element. Separate ANNs are trained and designed for selected worst case “N−1” contingencies along with base case configuration. Phasor Measurement Unit installed at distant locations provide real-time synchronized measurements of voltage phasor, which forms the input feature for the proposed model. Load <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$P$ </tex-math></inline-formula> margin evaluated by continuation power flow (CPF) method is considered as output feature of the proposed ANN model. The performance indices mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and maximum percentage error (MPE) with smaller values indicate small deviation between the estimated and the actual values. The proposed approach is effectively tested on IEEE 14-bus and 30-bus test system.

Integration of genetic algorithm with artificial neural network for stock market forecasting

Traditional statistical as well as artificial intelligence techniques are widely used for stock market forecasting. Due to the nonlinearity in stock data, a model developed using the traditional or a single intelligent technique may not accurately forecast results. Therefore, there is a need to develop a hybridization of intelligent techniques for an effective predictive model. In this study, we propose an intelligent forecasting method based on a hybrid of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and a Genetic Algorithm (GA) and uses two US stock market indices, DOW30 and NASDAQ100, for forecasting. The data were partitioned into training, testing, and validation datasets. The model validation was done on the stock data of the COVID-19 period. The experimental findings obtained using the DOW30 and NASDAQ100 reveal that the accuracy of the GA and ANN hybrid model for the DOW30 and NASDAQ100 is greater than that of the single ANN (BPANN) technique, both in the short and long term.

FOREX trend analysis using machine learning techniques: INR vs USD currency exchange rate using ANN-GA hybrid approach

Time series is the analysis of historical data which is used to analyse the past trend and then to determine the future directions. This helps organizations to make a proper plan and develop the appropriate strategic decision in the right direction. One such example is the analysis of the currency exchange rate. Prior information on the currency exchange rate or currency conversion rate helps the organization to make a better decision while trading in the international market. This is also called FOREX trend analysis. This study attempts to analyse the applicability of machine learning techniques in predicting the currency exchange rate in a very short-term period particularly in the case of Indian Rupees (INR) Vs U.S Dollars (USD). Two approaches have been implemented 1) A simple Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and 2) A hybrid model of ANN with a Genetic Algorithm (ANN-GA) where the ANN weight matrix is beingoptimized using Genetic Algorithm (GA). Finally, the results of both methods have been compared in terms of RMSE values obtained from their implementations.

Reliability Analysis of Piled Raft Foundation Using a Novel Hybrid Approach of ANN and Equilibrium Optimizer

In many civil engineering projects, Piled Raft Foundations (PRFs) are usually preferred where the incoming load from the superstructures is very high. In geotechnical engineering practice, the settlement of soil layers is a critical issue for the serviceability of the structures. Thus, assessment of risk associated with the structures corresponding to the maximum allowable settlement of soils needs to be carried out in the design phase. In this study, reliability analysis of PRF based on settlement criteria is performed using a high-performance hybrid soft computing model. The new approach is an integration of the artificial neural network (ANN) and a recently developed meta-heuristic algorithm called equilibrium optimizer (EO). The concept of reliability index was used to explore the feasibility of a newly constructed hybrid model of ANN and EO (i.e., ANN-EO) against the conventional approach of calculating the probability of failure of PRF. Experimental results show that the proposed ANN-EO attained the most accurate prediction with R2 = 0.9914 and RMSE = 0.0518 in the testing phase, which are significantly better than those obtained from conventional ANN, multivariate adaptive regression splines, and genetic programming, including the ANN optimized with particle swarm optimization developed in this study. Based on the experimental results of different settlement values, the newly constructed ANN-EO is very potential to analyze the risk associated with civil engineering structures. Also, the present study would significantly contribute to the knowledge pool of reliability studies related to piled raft systems because the works of literature on reliability analysis of piled raft systems are relatively scarce.

A hybrid approach of artificial neural network and multiple regression to forecast typhoon rainfall and groundwater-level change

ABSTRACT A forecasting model is developed using a hybrid approach of artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple regression analysis (MRA) to predict the total typhoon rainfall and groundwater-level change in the Zhuoshui River basin. We used information from the raingauge stations in eastern Taiwan and open source typhoon data to build the ANN model for forecasting the total rainfall and the groundwater level during a typhoon event; then we revised the predictive values using MRA. As a result, the average accuracy improved up to 80% when the hybrid model of ANN and MRA was applied, even where insufficient data were available for model training. The outcome of this research can be applied to forecasts of total rainfall and groundwater-level change before a typhoon event reaches the Zhuoshui River basin once the typhoon has made landfall on the east coast of Taiwan.

A hybrid artificial neural network-GJR modeling approach to forecasting currency exchange rate volatility

The study examines the integration of an asymmetric Glosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle (GJR) model into an artificial neural network (ANN) comprising of a NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive model with eXogenous inputs) augmented by a NAR network. The empirical results obtained from the study of five (5) major currency pairings reveal that, compared to the benchmark generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH), GJR and Asymmetric Power Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (APGARCH) models, the proposed hybrid ANN-GJR model provides an overall substantial improvement in exchange rate volatility forecasting precision by effectively capturing asymmetric volatility as well as volatility clusters. In terms of the MSE, the MAD and the MAPE measures, a significant improvement of the measured forecast accuracy was found when using the ANN hybrid model compared to the benchmark models. Applying measurements from a heteroscedasticity-adjusted mean squared error (HMSE) model, the hybrid ANN-GJR model can significantly reduce the error associated with using only the GJR model by 90%. The study also investigated the effect of incorporating commodity prices series of oil and gold as additional input variables. It was found that depending on the specific currency pair understudy, the inclusion of commodity price series potentially improves model performance over different forecast horizons.

A multi-method patient arrival forecasting outline for hospital emergency departments

ABSTRACT Patient arrivals at the emergency department (ED) of hospitals has an unpredictable behavior. So that, adequate forecasting of this process can serve a management baseline to better allocate ED human resources and medical equipment. In this paper, a multi-method patient arrival forecasting outline for EDs is developed. The methods followed within this study include single methods as linear regression (LR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), artificial neural network (ANN), exponential smoothing and hybrid methods as ARIMA–ANN and ARIMA-LR. As the subject of the study, a private hospital ED case in Turkey is carried out. Data of ED patient arrivals for the year of 2016 was used to set up models. Forecasting performance of the multi-method outline was measured using mean absolute percentage error. The ARIMA–ANN hybrid model is shown to outperform in terms of forecasting accuracy. In order to contribute to the current knowledge, this paper is a novel attempt of applying these methods to model ED patient arrivals and making an overall assessment among them. The results can be used to aid in strategic decision-making on ED staffing and scheduling policy planning in response to predictable arrival variations.

The effect of ICA and PSO on ANN results in approximating elasticity modulus of rock material

Reliable determination/evaluation of the rock deformation can be useful prior any structural design application. Young’s modulus (E) affords great insight into the characteristics of the rock. However, its direct determination in the laboratory is costly and time-consuming. Therefore, rock deformation prediction through indirect techniques is greatly suggested. This paper describes hybrid particle swarm optimization (PSO)–artificial neural network (ANN) and imperialism competitive algorithm (ICA)–ANN to solve shortcomings of ANN itself. In fact, the influence of PSO and ICA on ANN results in predicting E was studied in this research. By investigating the related studies, the most important parameters of PSO and ICA were identified and a series of parametric studies for their determination were conducted. All models were built using three inputs (Schmidt hammer rebound number, point load index and p-wave velocity) and one output which is E. To have a fair comparison and to show the capability of the hybrid models, a pre-developed ANN model was also constructed to estimate E. Evaluation of the obtained results demonstrated that a higher ability of E prediction is received developing a hybrid ICA–ANN model. Coefficient of determination (R2) values of (0.952, 0.943 and 0.753) and (0.955, 0.949 and 0.712) were obtained for training and testing of ICA–ANN, PSO–ANN and ANN models, respectively. In addition, VAF values near to 100 (95.182 and 95.143 for train and test) were achieved for a developed ICA–ANN hybrid model. The results indicated that the proposed ICA–ANN model can be implemented better in improving performance capacity of ANN model compared to another implemented hybrid model.

Developing an intelligent expert system for streamflow prediction, integrated in a dynamic decision support system for managing multiple reservoirs: A case study

Extracting and using of time-dependent indices improved prediction accuracy.Pre-processing of data improved prediction accuracy.Intelligent selection of predictors via sensitivity analysis and data mining.Successful integration of a novel forecast expert system in an operation system. Since fresh water is limited while agricultural and human water demands are continuously increasing, optimal prediction and management of streamflows as a source of fresh water is crucially important. This study investigates and demonstrates how data preprocessing and data mining techniques would improve the accuracy of streamflow predictive models. Based on easily accessible Snow Telemetry data (SNOTEL), four streamflow prediction models autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), artificial neural networks (ANNs), a hybrid-model of ANN and ARIMA (ANN-ARIMA), and an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) were developed and utilized in a streamflow prediction process on Elephant Butte Reservoir. Utilizing the statistical correlation analysis and the extracting importance degrees of predictors led to efficiently select the most effective predictors for daily and monthly streamflow to Elephant Butte Reservoir. For the daily prediction time step, by preprocessing the historical data and extracting and utilizing the extracted climate variability indices through data mining techniques, the ANFIS model achieved a superior streamflow prediction performance for Elephant Butte Reservoir compared to the other three evaluated prediction models. Additionally, for predicting monthly streamflow to the Elephant Butte Reservoir, ANFIS showed significantly higher accuracy than the ANNs. As an optimal application of the developed predictive expert systems, successful integrating the prediction models in integrated reservoir operations balanced the need for a reliable supply of irrigation water against losses through evaporation. The optimal operation plan significantly minimizes the total evaporation loss from both reservoirs by providing the optimal storage levels in both reservoirs. This study provides the conceptual procedures of non-seasonal (ARIMA) model, and since the model is univariate, it demonstrates a strongly-reliable inflow prediction when existing information is limited to streamflow data as a predictor.

Prediction and modelling of rainfall–runoff during typhoon events using a physically-based and artificial neural network hybrid model

The accurate prediction of hourly runoff discharge in a watershed during heavy rainfall events is of critical importance for flood control and management. This study predicts n-h-ahead runoff discharge in the Sandimen basin in southern Taiwan using a novel hybrid approach which combines a physically-based model (HEC-HMS) with an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Hourly runoff discharge data (1200 datasets) from seven heavy rainfall events were collected for the model calibration (training) and validation. Six statistical indicators (i.e. mean absolute error, root mean square error, coefficient of correlation, error of time to peak discharge, error of peak discharge and coefficient of efficiency) were employed to evaluate the performance. In comparison with the HEC-HMS model, the single ANN model, and the time series forecasting (ARMAX) model, the developed hybrid HEC-HMS–ANN model demonstrates improved accuracy in recursive n-h-ahead runoff discharge prediction, especially for peak flow discharge and time.

ANN hybrid model versus ARIMA and ARIMAX models of runoff coefficient

• We modeled monthly direct runoff coefficients to forecast a holdout dataset. • Initially, we used univariate ARIMA, multivariate ARIMAX, and ANN models. • We found the applied traditional model performances insufficient. • We developed a new Hybrid approach by using time series decomposition and ANN. • We found that the new generated model is superior, suitable for complicated data. In this study, monthly runoff coefficients of seven southern large basins are calculated and modeled to forecast a holdout dataset by using univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), multivariate ARIMA (ARIMAX), and Artificial neural network (ANN) models. The applied traditional model performances are found insufficient, since the characteristic behaviors of the time series of direct runoff coefficients are very complicated. Therefore, a new Hybrid approach is adopted by using time series decomposition procedure and ANN. ARIMA, ARIMAX, ANN, and Hybrid models are compared with each other. The results indicate that the new generated Hybrid approach can be generalized to boost the prediction capability of ANNs in complicated time series data. It is seen that the new model captures the physical behavior of the direct runoff coefficient time series. The semi-random spikes of the direct runoff coefficient series are approximated sufficiently.

Daily river flow forecasting using wavelet ANN hybrid models

Advance time step stream flow forecasting is of paramount importance in controlling flood damage. During the past few decades, artificial neural network (ANN) techniques have been used extensively in stream flow forecasting and have proven to be a better technique than other forecasting methods such as multiple regression and general transfer function models. This study uses discrete wavelet transformation functions to preprocess the time series of the flow data into wavelet coefficients of different frequency bands. Effective wavelet coefficients are selected from the correlation analysis of the decomposed wavelet coefficients of all frequency bands with the observed flow data. Neural network models are proposed for 1-, 2- and 3-day flow forecasting at a site of Brahmani River, India. The effective wavelet coefficients are used as input to the neural network models. Both the wavelet and ANN techniques are employed to form a loose type of wavelet ANN hybrid model (NW). The hybrid models are trained using Levenberg–Marquart (LM) algorithm and the results are compared with simple ANN models. The results revealed that the predictabilities of NW models are significantly superior to conventional ANN models. The peak flow conditions are predicted with better accuracy using NW models than compared to ANN models.