Developing an intelligent expert system for streamflow prediction, integrated in a dynamic decision support system for managing multiple reservoirs: A case study

Abstract

Extracting and using of time-dependent indices improved prediction accuracy.Pre-processing of data improved prediction accuracy.Intelligent selection of predictors via sensitivity analysis and data mining.Successful integration of a novel forecast expert system in an operation system. Since fresh water is limited while agricultural and human water demands are continuously increasing, optimal prediction and management of streamflows as a source of fresh water is crucially important. This study investigates and demonstrates how data preprocessing and data mining techniques would improve the accuracy of streamflow predictive models. Based on easily accessible Snow Telemetry data (SNOTEL), four streamflow prediction models autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), artificial neural networks (ANNs), a hybrid-model of ANN and ARIMA (ANN-ARIMA), and an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) were developed and utilized in a streamflow prediction process on Elephant Butte Reservoir. Utilizing the statistical correlation analysis and the extracting importance degrees of predictors led to efficiently select the most effective predictors for daily and monthly streamflow to Elephant Butte Reservoir. For the daily prediction time step, by preprocessing the historical data and extracting and utilizing the extracted climate variability indices through data mining techniques, the ANFIS model achieved a superior streamflow prediction performance for Elephant Butte Reservoir compared to the other three evaluated prediction models. Additionally, for predicting monthly streamflow to the Elephant Butte Reservoir, ANFIS showed significantly higher accuracy than the ANNs. As an optimal application of the developed predictive expert systems, successful integrating the prediction models in integrated reservoir operations balanced the need for a reliable supply of irrigation water against losses through evaporation. The optimal operation plan significantly minimizes the total evaporation loss from both reservoirs by providing the optimal storage levels in both reservoirs. This study provides the conceptual procedures of non-seasonal (ARIMA) model, and since the model is univariate, it demonstrates a strongly-reliable inflow prediction when existing information is limited to streamflow data as a predictor.