Hurricane Intensity Forecasts Research Articles

Reliable and Stable Radiometers for Jason-3

The Jason-3 mission employs the Advanced Microwave Radiometer (AMR) to provide a tropospheric path delay measurement in support of ocean altimetry. NOAA and EUMETSAT are Jason-3 lead agencies with CNES and NASA/JPL providing implementation support. Jason-3 continues the measurements of TOPEX/Poseidon [1] , [2] , Jason-1, and Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)/Jason-2 supporting a multidecadal ocean topography studies, including ocean circulation, climate change, hurricane intensity forecasts, and sea level change. The objective of the Jason-3 AMR is to measure the columnar water vapor in the path of the Poseidon radar altimeter (CNES instrument) to correct for water in the atmospheric path delay in the altimeter range measurement. In this paper, the design and performance of AMR are described along with the changes made compared to the predecessor Jason-2 instrument to reduce development risks and improve the stability of the AMR instrument.

Reducing Operational Hurricane Intensity Forecast Errors during Eyewall Replacement Cycles

Abstract Eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) are fairly common events in tropical cyclones (TCs) of hurricane intensity or greater and typically cause large and sometimes rapid changes in the intensity evolution of the TC. Although the details of the intensity evolution associated with ERCs appear to have some dependence on the ambient environmental conditions that the TCs move through, these dependencies can also be quite different than those of TCs that are not undergoing an ERC. For example, the Statistical Hurricane Prediction Scheme (SHIPS), which is used in National Hurricane Center operations and provides intensity forecast skill that is, on average, equal to or greater than deterministic numerical model skill, typically identifies an environment that is not indicative of weakening during the onset and subsequent evolution of an ERC. Contrarily, a period of substantial weakening does typically begin near the onset of an ERC, and this disparity can cause large SHIPS intensity forecast errors. Here, a simple model based on a climatology of ERC intensity change is introduced and tested against SHIPS. It is found that the application of the model can reduce intensity forecast error substantially when applied at, or shortly after, the onset of ERC weakening.

Ocean Heat Content Reveals Secrets of Fish Migrations

For centuries, the mechanisms surrounding spatially complex animal migrations have intrigued scientists and the public. We present a new methodology using ocean heat content (OHC), a habitat metric that is normally a fundamental part of hurricane intensity forecasting, to estimate movements and migration of satellite-tagged marine fishes. Previous satellite-tagging research of fishes using archival depth, temperature and light data for geolocations have been too coarse to resolve detailed ocean habitat utilization. We combined tag data with OHC estimated from ocean circulation and transport models in an optimization framework that substantially improved geolocation accuracy over SST-based tracks. The OHC-based movement track provided the first quantitative evidence that many of the tagged highly migratory fishes displayed affinities for ocean fronts and eddies. The OHC method provides a new quantitative tool for studying dynamic use of ocean habitats, migration processes and responses to environmental changes by fishes, and further, improves ocean animal tracking and extends satellite-based animal tracking data for other potential physical, ecological, and fisheries applications.

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) to Evaluate the Potential Impact of an Optical Autocovariance Wind Lidar (OAWL) on Numerical Weather Prediction

AbstractThe potential impact of Doppler wind lidar (DWL) observations from a proposed optical autocovariance wind lidar (OAWL) instrument is quantified in observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). The OAWL design would provide profiles of useful wind vectors along a ground track to the left of the International Space Station (ISS), which is in a 51.6° inclination low-Earth orbit (LEO). These observations are simulated realistically, accounting for cloud and aerosol distributions inferred from the OSSE nature runs (NRs), and measurement and sampling error sources. The impact of the simulated observations is determined in both global and regional OSSE frameworks. The global OSSE uses the ECMWF T511 NR and the NCEP operational Global Data Assimilation System at T382 resolution. The regional OSSE uses an embedded hurricane NR and the NCEP operational HWRF data assimilation system with outer and inner domains of 9- and 3-km resolution, respectively.The global OSSE results show improved analyses and forecasts of tropical winds and extratropical geopotential heights. The tropical wind RMSEs are significantly reduced in the analyses and in short-term forecasts. The tropical wind improvement decays as the forecasts lengthen. The regional OSSEs are limited but show some improvements in hurricane track and intensity forecasts.

Evaluating the Impact of Improvements in the Boundary Layer Parameterization on Hurricane Intensity and Structure Forecasts in HWRF

Abstract As part of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), recent boundary layer physics upgrades in the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model have benefited from analyses of in situ aircraft observations in the low-level eyewall region of major hurricanes. This study evaluates the impact of these improvements to the vertical diffusion in the boundary layer on the simulated track, intensity, and structure of four hurricanes using retrospective HWRF forecasts. Structural metrics developed from observational composites are used in the model evaluation process. The results show improvements in track and intensity forecasts in response to the improvement of the vertical diffusion. The results also demonstrate substantial improvements in the simulated storm size, surface inflow angle, near-surface wind profile, and kinematic boundary layer heights in simulations with the improved physics, while only minor improvements are found in the thermodynamic boundary layer height, eyewall slope, and the distributions of vertical velocities in the eyewall. Other structural metrics such as warm core anomaly and warm core height are also explored. Reasons for the structural differences between the two sets of forecasts with different physics are discussed. This work further emphasizes the importance of aircraft observations in model diagnostics and development, endorsing a developmental framework for improving physical parameterizations in hurricane models.

A new aircraft hurricane wind climatology and applications in assessing the predictive skill of tropical cyclone intensity using high‐resolution ensemble forecasts

AbstractHurricane surface wind is a key measure of storm intensity. However, a climatology of hurricane winds is lacking to date, largely because hurricanes are relatively rare events and difficult to observe over the open ocean. Here we present a new hurricane wind climatology based on objective surface wind analyses, which are derived from Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer measurements acquired by NOAA WP‐3D and U.S. Air Force WC‐130J hurricane hunter aircraft. The wind data were collected during 72 aircraft reconnaissance missions into 21 western Atlantic hurricanes from 1998 to 2012. This climatology provides an opportunity to validate hurricane intensity forecasts beyond the simplistic maximum wind speed metric and allows evaluating the predictive skill of probabilistic hurricane intensity forecasts using high‐resolution model ensembles. An example of application is presented here using a 1.3 km grid spacing Weather Research and Forecasting model ensemble forecast of Hurricane Earl (2010).

Advanced infrared sounder subpixel cloud detection with imagers and its impact on radiance assimilation in NWP

AbstractAccurate cloud detection is very important for infrared (IR) radiance assimilation; improved cloud detection could reduce cloud contamination and hence improve the assimilation. Although operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers are using IR sounder radiance data for cloud detection, collocated high spatial resolution imager data could help sounder subpixel cloud detection and characterization. IR sounder radiances with improved cloud detection using Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)/Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were assimilated for Hurricane Sandy (2012). Forecast experiments were run with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) as the forecast model and the Three‐Dimensional Variational Assimilation (3DVAR)‐based Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) as the analysis system. Results indicate that forecasts of both hurricane track and intensity are substantially improved when the collocated high spatial resolution MODIS cloud mask is used for AIRS subpixel cloud detection for assimilating radiances. This methodology can be applied to process Crosstrack Infrared Sounder (CRIS)/Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) onboard Suomi‐NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP)/Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) onboard the Metop series for improved radiance assimilation in NWP.

Relating the Skill of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts to the Synoptic Environment

Abstract Prior knowledge of the performance of a tropical cyclone intensity forecast holds the potential to increase the value of forecasts for end users. The values of certain dynamical parameters, such as storm speed, latitude, current intensity, potential intensity, wind shear magnitude, and direction of the shear vector, are shown to be related to the error of an individual model forecast. The varying success of each model in the different environmental conditions represents a source of additional information on the reliability of an individual forecast beyond average forecast error. Three hurricane intensity models that were operational for the duration of the five hurricane seasons between 2006 and 2010, as well as the National Hurricane Center official forecast (OFCL), are evaluated for 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecasts in the Atlantic Ocean. The performance of each model is assessed by computing the mean absolute error, bias, and percent skill relative to a benchmark model. The synoptic variables are binned into physically meaningful ranges and then tested individually and in combinations to capture the different regimes that are conducive to forecasts with higher or lower error. The results address conventional wisdom about which environmental conditions lead to better forecasts of hurricane intensity and highlight the different strengths of each model. The statistical significance established between the different bins in each model as well as the corresponding bins for other models indicates there is the potential for error predictions to accompany tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.

Relationship of environmental relative humidity with North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity and intensification rate

Quantifying the relationship of large‐scale environmental conditions such as relative humidity with hurricane intensity and intensity change is important for statistical hurricane intensity forecasts. Our composite analysis of 9 years of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) humidity data spanning 198 Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) shows that environmental relative humidity (ERH) above the boundary layer generally decreases with time as TCs evolve. Near the surface, ERH stays approximately constant. ERH generally increases with increasing TC intensity and intensification rate. Rapidly intensifying TCs are associated with free tropospheric ERH more than 10% (relative to the averaged ERH for all TCs) larger than that for weakening TCs. Substantial azimuthal asymmetry in ERH is also found, especially for the TCs attaining the highest intensities and largest intensification rates at distances greater than 400 km away from the TC center. In the front‐right quadrant relative to TC motion, rapid intensification is associated with a sharp gradient of ERH in the upper troposphere, with a decrease from the near to the far environment between 400 hPa and 300 hPa. The ERH gradient weakens with the decrease of intensification rate. This radial ERH gradient might be a useful predictor for the statistical forecast of TC intensification.

A First Look at the Structure of the Wave Pouch during the 2009 PREDICT–GRIP Dry Runs over the Atlantic

In support of the National Science Foundation Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the tropics (NSF PREDICT) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (NASA GRIP) dry run exercises and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hurricane Intensity Forecast Experiment (NOAA IFEX) during the 2009 hurricane season, a real-time wave-tracking algorithm and corresponding diagnostic analyses based on a recently proposed tropical cyclogenesis model were applied to tropical easterly waves over the Atlantic. The model emphasizes the importance of a Lagrangian recirculation region within a tropical-wave critical layer (the so-called pouch), where persistent deep convection and vorticity aggregation as well as column moistening are favored for tropical cyclogenesis. Distinct scenarios of hybrid wave–vortex evolution are highlighted. It was found that easterly waves without a pouch or with a shallow pouch did not develop. Although not all waves with a deep pouch developed into a tropical storm, a deep wave pouch had formed prior to genesis for all 16 named storms originating from monochromatic easterly waves during the 2008 and 2009 seasons. On the other hand, the diagnosis of two nondeveloping waves with a deep pouch suggests that strong vertical shear or dry air intrusion at the middle–upper levels (where a wave pouch was absent) can disrupt deep convection and suppress storm development. To sum up, this study suggests that a deep wave pouch extending from the midtroposphere (~600–700 hPa) down to the boundary layer is a necessary condition for tropical cyclone formation within an easterly wave. It is hypothesized also that a deep wave pouch together with other large-scale favorable conditions provides a sufficient condition for sustained convection and tropical cyclone formation. This hypothesized sufficient condition requires further testing and will be pursued in future work.

SMOS satellite L‐band radiometer: A new capability for ocean surface remote sensing in hurricanes

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission currently provides multiangular L‐band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperature images of the Earth. Because upwelling radiation at 1.4 GHz is significantly less affected by rain and atmospheric effects than at higher microwave frequencies, these new SMOS measurements offer unique opportunities to complement existing ocean satellite high wind observations that are often contaminated by heavy rain and clouds. To illustrate this new capability, we present SMOS data over hurricane Igor, a tropical storm that developed to a Saffir‐Simpson category 4 hurricane from 11 to 19 September 2010. Thanks to its large spatial swath and frequent revisit time, SMOS observations intercepted the hurricane 9 times during this period. Without correcting for rain effects, L‐band wind‐induced ocean surface brightness temperatures (TB) were co‐located and compared to H*Wind analysis. We find the L‐band ocean emissivity dependence with wind speed appears less sensitive to roughness and foam changes than at the higher C‐band microwave frequencies. The first Stokes parameter on a ∼50 km spatial scale nevertheless increases quasi‐linearly with increasing surface wind speed at a rate of 0.3 K/m s−1 and 0.7 K/m s−1 below and above the hurricane‐force wind speed threshold (∼32 m s−1), respectively. Surface wind speeds estimated from SMOS brightness temperature images agree well with the observed and modeled surface wind speed features. In particular, the evolution of the maximum surface wind speed and the radii of 34, 50 and 64 knots surface wind speeds are consistent with GFDL hurricane model solutions and H*Wind analyses. The SMOS sensor is thus closer to a true all‐weather satellite ocean wind sensor with the capability to provide quantitative and complementary surface wind information of interest for operational Hurricane intensity forecasts.

On the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Wilma (2005). Part I: Model Prediction and Structural Changes

Abstract In this study, a 72-h cloud-permitting numerical prediction of Hurricane Wilma (2005), covering its initial 18-h spinup, an 18-h rapid intensification (RI), and the subsequent 36-h weakening stage, is performed using the Weather Research Forecast Model (WRF) with the finest grid length of 1 km. The model prediction uses the initial and lateral boundary conditions, including the bogus vortex, that are identical to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s then-operational data, except for the time-independent sea surface temperature field. Results show that the WRF prediction compares favorably in many aspects to the best-track analysis, as well as satellite and reconnaissance flight-level observations. In particular, the model predicts an RI rate of more than 4 hPa h−1 for an 18-h period, with the minimum central pressure of less than 889 hPa. Of significance is that the model captures a sequence of important inner-core structural variations associated with Wilma’s intensity changes, namely, from a partial eyewall open to the west prior to RI to a full eyewall at the onset of RI, rapid eyewall contraction during the initial spinup, the formation of double eyewalls with a wide moat area in between during the most intense stage, and the subsequent eyewall replacement leading to the weakening of Wilma. In addition, the model reproduces the boundary layer growth up to 750 hPa with an intense inversion layer above in the eye. Recognizing that a single case does not provide a rigorous test of the model predictability due to the stochastic nature of deep convection, results presented herein suggest that it is possible to improve forecasts of hurricane intensity and intensity changes, and especially RI, if the inner-core structural changes and storm size could be reasonably predicted in an operational setting using high-resolution cloud-permitting models with realistic initial conditions and model physical parameterizations.

Performance of convection‐permitting hurricane initialization and prediction during 2008–2010 with ensemble data assimilation of inner‐core airborne Doppler radar observations

This study examines a hurricane prediction system that uses an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to assimilate high‐resolution airborne radar observations for convection‐permitting hurricane initialization and forecasting. This system demonstrated very promising performance, especially on hurricane intensity forecasts, through experiments over all 61 applicable NOAA P‐3 airborne Doppler missions during the 2008–2010 Atlantic hurricane seasons. The mean absolute intensity forecast errors initialized with the EnKF‐analysis of the airborne Doppler observations at the 24‐ to 120‐h lead forecast times were 20–40% lower than the National Hurricane Center's official forecasts issued at similar times. This prototype system was first implemented in real‐time for Hurricane Ike (2008). It represents the first time that airborne Doppler radar observations were successfully assimilated in real‐time into a hurricane prediction model. It also represents the first time that the convection‐permitting ensemble analyses and forecasts for hurricanes were performed in real‐time. Also unprecedented was the on‐demand usage of more than 23,000 computer cluster processors simultaneously in real‐time.

Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2009

The 2009 Atlantic season was marked by below-average tropical cyclone activity with the formation of nine tropical storms, the fewest since the 1997 Atlantic hurricane season. Of these, three became hurricanes and two strengthened into major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). In addition, there were two tropical depressions that did not reach storm strength. The numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes were below the long-term averages of 11 named storms and 6 hurricanes, although the number of major hurricanes equaled the long-term average of 2. Many of the cyclones remained relatively weak. Only one tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Claudette, made landfall in the United States, although Ida affected the northern Gulf Coast as a tropical storm before moving inland as an extratropical cyclone. Hurricane Bill and Tropical Storm Danny indirectly affected the East Coast by producing high surf, rip currents, and beach erosion; Bill also produced tropical storm conditions over Bermuda and parts of Atlantic Canada. Hurricane Ida made landfall in Nicaragua and also affected parts of Honduras, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba. Tropical Storm Erika had minor effects on the northern Leeward Islands, mainly in the form of light rain, and Tropical Storm Grace moved through the Azores with little impact. The death toll from the 2009 Atlantic tropical cyclones was six. A verification of National Hurricane Center official forecasts during 2009 is also presented. Official track errors and forecast skill set records for accuracy at lead times between 24 and 72 h. Official intensity forecast errors were mostly larger than the previous 5-yr means, although intensity forecast skill was at or above historical highs since the intensity skill baseline [i.e., Decay-Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast model version 5 (Decay-SHIFOR5)] errors were well above average.

Influence of Rain-Rate Initialization, Cloud Microphysics, and Cloud Torques on Hurricane Intensity

Abstract This study examines the impact of rain-rate initialization (RINIT), microphysical modifications, and cloud torques (in the context of angular momentum) on hurricane intensity forecasts using a mesoscale model [the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (ARW-WRF)] at a cloud-resolving resolution of 2.7 km. The numerical simulations are performed in a triple-nested manner (25, 8.3, and 2.7 km) for Hurricane Dennis of 2005. Unless mentioned otherwise, all the results discussed are from the innermost grid with finest resolution (2.7 km). It is found that the model results obtained from the RINIT technique demonstrated robust improvement in hurricane structure, track, and intensity forecasts compared to the control experiment (CTRL; i.e., without RINIT). Thereafter, using RINIT initial conditions datasets three sensitive experiments are designed by modifying specific ice microphysical parameters (i.e., temperature-independent snow intercept parameter, doubling number of concentrations of ice, and ice crystal diameter) within the explicit parameterization scheme [i.e., the WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6)]. It is shown that the experiment with enhanced ice mass concentration and temperature-independent snow intercept parameter produces the strongest and weakest storms, respectively. The results suggest that the distributions of hydrometeors are also impacted by the limited changes introduced in the microphysical scheme (e.g., the quantitative amount of snow drastically reduced to 0.1–0.2 g kg−1 when the intercept parameter of snow is made independent of temperature). It is noted that the model holds ice at a warmer temperature for a longer time with a temperature-independent intercept parameter. These variations in hydrometeor distribution in the eyewall region of the storm affect diabatic heating and vertical velocity structure and modulated the storm intensity. However, irrespective of the microphysical changes the quantitative amount of graupel hydrometeors remained nearly unaffected. Finally, the indirect effect of microphysical modifications on storm intensity through angular momentum and cloud torques is examined. A formulation to predict the short-term changes in the storm intensity using a parcel segment angular momentum budget method is developed. These results serve to elucidate the indirect impact of microphysical modifications on tropical cyclone intensity changes through modulation in cloud torque magnitude.

Relationship of Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones to Dynamical/Thermodynamical Parameters

Many avenues of research are currently being tried for understanding and predicting hurricane intensity forecasts. We have listed several such research avenues being pursued by the research community. This article addresses the use of high-resolution aircraft reconnaissance datasets used for daily data assimilation over three years of hurricane histories that cover rapid intensification cases. We show a number of dynamical and thermodynamical parameters, derived from these datasets, which seem to hold promise for future use in short range statistical forecasts on rapid intensification. These include the vertical differential of heating in the complete potential vorticity equation, the conversion of divergent kinetic energy to rotational kinetic energy, the transformation of shear vorticity to curvature vorticity, and the advection of the earth's and the relative angular momentum into the inner core of hurricanes. We find a rapid growth in the time history of each of these parameters as the rapid intensification occurs. These are demonstrated for a number of recent hurricanes.

On the Dynamics of Two-Dimensional Hurricane-Like Vortex Symmetrization

Abstract Despite the fact that asymmetries in hurricanes, such as spiral rainbands, polygonal eyewalls, and mesovortices, have long been observed in radar and satellite imagery, many aspects of their origin, space–time structure, and dynamics still remain unsolved, particularly their role on the vortex intensification. The underlying inner-core dynamics need to be better understood to improve the science of hurricane intensity forecasting. To fill this gap, a simple 2D barotropic “dry” model is used to perform two experiments starting respectively with a monopole and a ring of enhanced vorticity to mimic hurricane-like vortices during incipient and mature stages of development. The empirical normal mode (ENM) technique, together with the Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux calculations, are used to isolate wave modes from the model datasets to investigate their space–time structure, kinematics, and the impact on the changes in the structure and intensity of the simulated hurricane-like vortices. From the ENM diagnostics, it is shown in the first experiment how an incipient storm described by a vortex monopole intensifies by “inviscid damping” of a “discrete-like” vortex Rossby wave (VRW) or quasi mode. The critical radius, the structure, and the propagating properties of the quasi mode are found to be consistent with predictions of the linear eigenmode analysis of small perturbations. In the second experiment, the fastest growing wavenumber-4 unstable VRW modes of a vortex ring reminiscent of a mature hurricane are extracted, and their relation with the polygonal eyewalls, mesovortices, and the asymmetric eyewall contraction are established in consistency with results previously obtained from other authors.

On the Dynamics of Two-Dimensional Hurricane-like Concentric Rings Vortex Formation

Abstract Despite the fact that asymmetries in hurricanes (e.g., spiral rainbands, polygonal eyewalls, and mesovortices) have long been observed in radar and satellite imagery, many aspects of their dynamics remain unsolved, particularly in the formation of the secondary eyewall. The underlying associated dynamical processes need to be better understood to advance the science of hurricane intensity forecasting. To fill this gap, a simple 2D barotropic “dry” model is used to simulate a hurricane-like concentric rings vortex. The empirical normal mode (ENM) technique, together with Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux calculations, are used to isolate wave modes from the model datasets to investigate their impact on the changes in the structure and intensity of the simulated hurricane-like vortex. From the ENM diagnostics, it is shown that asymmetric disturbances outside a strong vortex ring with a large vorticity skirt may relax to form concentric rings of enhanced vorticity that contain a secondary wind maximum. The fact that the critical radius for some of the leading modes is close to the location where the secondary ring of enhanced vorticity develops suggests that a wave–mean flow interaction mechanism based on vortex Rossby wave (VRW) dynamics may explain important dynamical aspects of concentric eyewall genesis (CEG).

Oceanic Heat Content Variability in the Eastern Pacific Ocean for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting

Abstract Recent evidence supports the premise that the subsurface ocean structure plays an important role in modulating air–sea fluxes during hurricane passage, which in turn, affects intensity change. Given the generally sparse in situ data, it has been difficult to provide region-to-basin-wide estimates of isotherm depths and upper-ocean heat content (OHC). In this broader context, satellite-derived sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs) from multiple platforms carrying radar altimeters are blended, objectively analyzed, and combined with a hurricane-season climatology to estimate isotherm depths and OHC within the context of a reduced gravity model at 0.25° spatial intervals in the eastern Pacific Ocean where tropical cyclone intensity change occurs. Measurements from the Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate in 2001, long-term tropical ocean atmosphere mooring network, and volunteer observing ship deploying expendable bathythermograph (XBT) profilers are used to carefully evaluate satellite-based measurements of upper-ocean variability. Regression statistics reveal small biases with slopes of 0.8–0.9 between the subsurface measurements compared with isotherm depths (20° and 26°C), and OHC fields derived from objectively analyzed SSHA field. Root-mean-square differences in OHC range between 10 and 15 kJ cm−2 or roughly 10%–15% of the mean signals. Similar values are found for isotherm depth differences between in situ and inferred satellite-derived values. Blended daily values are used in the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) forecasts as are OHC estimates for the Atlantic Ocean basin. An equivalent OHC variable is introduced that incorporates the strength of the thermocline at the base of the oceanic mixed layer using a climatological stratification parameter /No, which seems better correlated to hurricane intensity change than just anomalies as observed in Hurricane Juliette in 2001.

Mixed Layer Cooling in Mesoscale Oceanic Eddies during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

Abstract During favorable atmospheric conditions, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita deepened to category 5 over the Loop Current’s (LC) bulge associated with an amplifying warm core eddy. Both hurricanes subsequently weakened to category 3 after passing over a cold core eddy (CCE) prior to making landfall. Reduced (increased) oceanic mixed layer (OML) cooling of ∼1°C (4.5°C) was observed over the LC (CCE) where the storms rapidly deepened (weakened). Data acquired during and subsequent to the passage of both hurricanes indicate that the modulated velocity response in these geostrophic features was responsible for the contrasts in the upper-ocean cooling levels. For similar wind forcing, the OML velocity response was about 2 times larger inside the CCE that interacted with Katrina than in the LC region affected by Rita, depending on the prestorm OML thickness. Hurricane-induced upwelling and vertical mixing were increased (reduced) in the CCE (LC). Less wind-driven kinetic energy was available to increase vertical shears for entrainment cooling in the LC, as the OML current response was weaker and energy was largely radiated into the thermocline. Estimates of downward vertical radiation of near-inertial wave energies were significantly stronger in the LC (12.1 × 10−2 W m−2) than in the CCE (1.8 × 10−2 W m−2). Katrina and Rita winds provided O(1010) W to the global internal wave power. The vertical mixing induced by both storms was confined to the surface water mass. From a broader perspective, models must capture oceanic features to reproduce the differentiated hurricane-induced OML cooling to improve hurricane intensity forecasting.