Human-water Systems Research Articles

Assessing the suitability of groundwater resources based on farmers’ predicted intentions and human–water feedbacks

In this study, a behavioral −hydrological simulation modeling framework is developed to explore the functioning of human-water systems. The main objective is to identify the psycho-social factors affecting water conservation intentions among farmers, and then realize the interactions and bidirectional feedback between humans and water resources. For this purpose, the agent-based modeling (ABM) and extended theory of planned behavior (TPB) is recruited to reflect on the agents’ behaviors. As the first step, the framework of the extended TPB together with the agent behavior was designed via field researches through the completion of 169 questionnaires upon proportional-to-size (PPS) random sampling. The partial least squares-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) is then implemented, at the second step, to analyze the data and obtain the weights of the extended TPB constructs. The results reveal that the constructs supplemented to the TPB, including moral norms (MNs) and perceived risk (PR), could have significant effects on water conservation intentions and behaviors among farmers. At the last step, the farmers and their decision-making as the dynamic elements by obtaining feedbacks of water resources were modeled using the ABM. To evaluate the proposed framework, the recorded data of groundwater fluctuations and cultivated areas in the Lenjanat plain is utilized and compared with the socio-hydrological simulation modeling outcomes using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient. Then, five scenarios are defined to shed light on the changes in the agent behavior on the aquifer suitability, including water consumption rate and groundwater levels in the aquifer. The results correspondingly demonstrated that merging the second and third scenarios in an effort to raise the prices of crops with low water need along with the increase in utility costs (here, water and electricity) could lead to a 75% increase of farmers’ income and a 21.5% reduction in the surface and groundwater uses in this region, implying the highest level of water conservation among other scenarios.

Impacts of climate change and land cover factor on runoff in the Coastal Chinese Mainland region

The increasingly frequent storms pose significant threats to the sustainable development of coastal regions, particularly in densely populated and economically vibrant areas. Comprehending the dynamics and intricate mechanisms underlying runoff generation is crucial in the context of climate change and anthropogenic interference. Based on hydro-meteorological and land-use data from 1980 to 2018, this study investigates the runoff variation and its driving factors in the Coastal Chinese Mainland (CCM). The aims of this study are to reveal the temporal and spatial trends of runoff yield, to clarify the sensitivity of runoff in coastal cities to the integrated and individual parameters of climate change and anthropogenic interference, including precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (E0), and land cover factor (n), and to support the establishment of spatially tailored adaptation strategies. The results show that: (1) runoff has generally increased over the study period, particularly in regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, and Guangxi, while it has decreased in western Liaoning and eastern Guangdong; (2) in the northern CCM with larger aridity index, the land cover factor plays a dominant role in runoff production, while in the wetter southern CCM, precipitation is more influential, and potential evapotranspiration mainly hinders runoff generation all over CCM; (3) urban expansion tends to negatively impact n, while the loss of grasslands and shrinkage of croplands tend to undermine the value of n. To facilitate the achievement of sustainable development goals in the CCM, it is imperative to introduce a more comprehensive and theoretical framework that encompasses the natural, technical, and social dimensions of human-water systems into traditional flood regulation and water resource management. This framework should promote interdisciplinary collaboration from an integrated perspective, to bridge the administrative and watershed boundaries, to effectively address the complex challenges posed by climate change and anthropogenic activities on runoff and water resources in coastal regions, and to enhance the realization of local sustainable development goals (UN SDGs).

Editorial: Scale issues in human-water systems

Editorial: Scale issues in human-water systems

Scenario analysis of local storylines to represent uncertainty in complex human-water systems

Storylines are important in evaluating the uncertainty inherent in complex human-water systems. The interrelated nature of qualitative and quantitative scenarios can enhance our ability to address the uncertainty of integrated modelling of complex systems. This study proposes a transdisciplinary approach that integrates social and environmental sciences to characterize and comprehend uncertainty in the dynamic interactions of key factors affecting a human-water system. We introduce a framework for representing uncertainty through linguistic and epistemic uncertainty quantification using storyline narratives in the context of a regional integrated dynamic model. A systematic exploration of uncertainty space is performed using storytelling, fuzzy sets, and low discrepancy sequences sampling methods. Scenario analysis is applied to the generated uncertain ensemble of projections to discover predominant storylines of interest. As a representative case of a human-water system operating in a developing country, we examine the uncertainty effects of a variety of drivers of climatic and socio-economic changes on key agriculture and water-related sectors in Pakistan’s Rechna Doab region. The findings revealed soil salinity and crop yield indices were the most uncertain and showed significant variance across all developed storylines. The 95th percentile for soil salinity in year 2100 was estimated to be nearly 60 % higher than the baseline level (year 2020). There was, however, considerable overlap in different socio-economic scenarios at the local scale, indicating that change in socio-economic conditions could not fully offset climate-related uncertainty. Our analysis provides better quantification and a deeper understanding of the uncertainty in integrated assessment modelling of coupled human-water systems and the complex relationships between inputs and outcomes.

Unravelling and understanding local perceptions of water quality in the Santa basin, Peru

Water quality is an integral part of water security. Measuring the physico-chemical indicators for water quality can provide an objective picture of water health, but it does not provide information on lived experiences related to water quality, expectations of water resources, nor how the quality of water affects its usage. Perceptual information and traditional ecological knowledge on water quality can help to understand interactions between water and people, and thereby support locally appropriate sustainable water resource strategies. Accordingly, our project sought to collect and synthesise insights from local perspectives on water quality in the upper Santa River basin, Peru, a region where water quality directly relates to people’s livelihoods. Perceptual data was collected via the Nuestro Rio mobile app (N = 149) as well as walking interviews (n = 84) (July-August 2021) in two main study areas, Olleros and Catac. We find that water quality perspectives differ within, and between, study areas and communities, however four overarching themes were identified, and are explored here: i) environmental indicators for water quality; ii) water uses; and iii) perceived causes of water quality; iv) water quality perceptions behind emotions. Most rural participants felt the main cause of poor water quality was mineral pollution, likely linked to local geology, however we also found that local perceptions of water quality depend on water usage, directly linked to domestic water use and agricultural livelihoods. Qualitative data highlighted the complex relationships between water quality, perceptions and emotions. More inclusive citizen-based science that considers what people observe, think and feel about the quality of their rivers can help provide a much deeper contextual understanding of dynamic human-water systems, with further benefits for improving water management and policy implementation.

Keep the Flow: Citizen Science as Agonistic Learning

This paper addresses the transformative and emancipatory potential of citizen science not only concerning its role in groundwater management, but also regarding its contribution to enhanced and sustainable well-being. Our work is in the Hout Catchment region of the Limpopo province in South Africa where living conditions vary greatly, but all share a vulnerable dependency on the dwindling availability of water. We propose that the interaction between human water systems and its contextual social dimensions with regard to diversity and historically shaped structures of power has had serious impacts on the ability to tackle challenges of sustainable water management. In our project, citizen scientists markedly expanded data collection and analysis at a fraction of the cost of traditional scientific endeavours. Keep the Flow is not simply about effectively using measurement instruments, but also about practices of authentic learning through innovative methodologies that were used to communicate with citizens about science and with scientists about social transformation and well-being. In our workshops, we used art as a bridge. Citizen science takes place in agonistic learning spaces in which historical and geopolitical circumstances that have resulted in an uneven playing field for its participants were acknowledged. We begin by introducing the project, then we discuss plural understandings of citizen science and present our stakeholders. We subsequently examine our own citizen science approach as agonistic learning, which brings us to ideas of entanglement and meshwork. We then present our participatory action research methodology and the go-to tools we use in in agonistic learning spaces, followed by our conclusions.

The community perception of human-water connections is indirectly influenced by the landscape context: A case study in the lower reaches of the Yellow river

Humans and water are closely connected in large river basins and form social-ecological systems (SESs). However, cross-scale effect in SESs make it difficult to identify the key forces driving human-water connections at the community scale when ignoring the landscape context. Focusing on the incongruous human-water relationships in the lower reaches of the Yellow River, we built local resident perception-based networks linking the agricultural subsystem, environmental subsystem, and cultural subsystem by distributing farmer household questionnaires and extracted 13 indicators from 7 kinds of network metrics to indicate human-water connections. We applied analysis of variance (ANOVA), random forest (RF) and multilevel linear model (MLM) methods to identify the driving forces of perception-based human-water connections among 20 factors at both the community and landscape scales. The results showed that the perception-based network indicators were mainly directly influenced by community-level driving factors, especially the accessibility of information, such as the frequency of going out, the frequency of accessing the Yellow River channel, and the information source for the national policy on the Yellow River. The influences of community-level driving factors on network indicators were affected by landscape-level driving factors, e.g., the nighttime light, population density, gross domestic product and proportion of artificial land, thus indicating indirect influences from the landscape context. These analyses and findings can enrich the methods by which social, ecological and hydrological elements are structurally linked in sociohydrologic research and highlight the cross-scale effect of the landscape context on human-water systems at the community level.

Overcoming Deterministic Limits to Robustness Tests of Decision-Making Given Incomplete Information: The State Contingent Analysis Approach

Incomplete information may result in multiple factors combining to jointly affect the consequences of decision-making. The typical response to incomplete information has been tests of robustness and a fixed decisions’ capacity to withstand a wide variety of future conditions. But what of reversed contexts, where the revealed future alters decision-making via experience, learning and innovation such that the decision itself changes? In this paper we contrast a commonly applied expected value robustness metric to state contingent analysis which allows for learning and innovation. State contingent analysis views robustness as how decision-makers achieve profits across all future states by reallocating resources ex post to maximize payoffs and/or minimize losses via outputs that are conditionally specific. Consequently, the state-contingent approach enables researchers to identify the benefits and constraints of resource reallocation—rather than fixed decision-making—over plausible scenarios. Within SCA, scenarios can thus be uncoupled from the historical averages to explore rare events, even if never before experienced, including thin- and fat-tailed probability distribution outcomes and their impact on decision-making, innovation and future solutions. A case study assessment of water resource management in a large river basin provides the basis for our comparison. We find that expected value models mask innovation and adaptation reactions by decision-makers in response to external stimuli (e.g., increased droughts) and under-represent water reallocation outcomes. Conversely, state contingent models represent and report decision-maker reactions that can be more readily interpreted and linked to stimuli including policy interventions, expanding the study of complex human-water systems.

Fighting against, and coping with, drought in Brazil: two policy paradigms intertwined

In northeast Brazil, fight-against-drought and cope-with-drought have been identified as two different drought policy paradigms. This article aims to examine the persistence, coexistence, intertwining, and evolution of these drought policy paradigms by studying how they inform national policy responses in human-water systems. The questions guiding our research are what do the paradigms of fight-against-drought and cope-with-drought consist of and how did the competing paradigms develop over time? To address these, the research draws on a systematic analysis of policy documents, multiannual strategic plans from 2000 to 2020 (the most recently published), and interviews with key informants. This study found the paradigms evolved with the persistence of the fight-against-drought paradigm with incremental changes of the cope-with-drought. The coexistence of paradigms started in 2004 and was in 2016 that the persistence, coexistence and intertwining of both were established. We use two theories, Hall’s (1993) policy and Lindblom’s (1959, 1979) incrementalism for analyzing the influences drought policy paradigms in human-water systems. This study provides new insights to understand the role of ideas in policy processes empirically showing how drought policy paradigms gradually evolve influencing policy responses.

Assessing farmers' adaptation responses to water conservation policies through modular recursive hydro-micro-macro-economic modeling

Farmers' adaptation responses to water conservation policies involve a complex decision-making process that depends on a range of criteria, including water availability, profits, and risks, which are in turn dependent on (and might have consequences at) broader scale processes including water systems and the macroeconomy. The non-consideration of the complex interactions between and within natural and human systems often leads to unforeseen consequences and sub-optimal water policy design. There exists a fundamental need to improve our understanding of complex human-water (e.g. hydro-economic) and human-human (e.g. micro-macroeconomic) systems' interactions so to better inform policy-makers. This paper develops an innovative modeling framework for capturing the richness of interactions in complex human-water systems by: i) considering the rationale behind farmers' behavior and responses through microeconomic models; ii) assessing the complex interactions among economic sectors and regions within an economy through macroeconomic models; iii) simulating responses on water cycle dynamics within a river basin by means of hydrologic modeling; and iv) representing the interconnected dynamics and two-way feedback responses between human-water and human-human (through micro-macro-economic) systems. The proposed modeling framework operates through a recursive modular approach built from independent modules which are, in turn, connected through a set of protocols that control the exchange of information. Methods are illustrated considering an incremental agricultural water charging policy in the Spanish part of the Douro River Basin (DRB). Results show that local land use reallocations have an impact on the supply of irrigated (rainfed) agricultural commodities at the macroeconomic level, which further leads to higher (or lower) commodity prices that partially offset changes in crop profitability due to changing water charges and readjustments in the crop portfolio. These, in turn, result in non-linear responses in land and water use with non-trivial impacts on water system's dynamics, where evapotranspiration, surface runoff, and groundwater evapotranspiration are the main hydrologic components affected. We conclude that the integration of hydro-micro-macro-economic modules through a set of protocols can provide crucial information for promoting the efficient design of agricultural water policies.

A Socio-Hydrological Unit Division and Confluence Relationship Generation Method for Human–Water Systems

Studies on human activities and the natural water cycle as a coupled system are essential for effective water resource management in river basins. However, existing calculation methods based solely on the natural water cycle do not meet the accuracy requirements of natural society dualistic water cycle simulations. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a more scientific and reasonable calculation unit division method and river confluence relationship determination method. This paper presents a socio-hydrological unit with natural society dual characteristics based on both the hydrological characteristics and the social administrative characteristics of the river basin. According to the elevation of the river buffer zone, river confluence relationships among socio-hydrological units are determined, and upstream and downstream confluence of the human–water system is obtained. Finally, a case study of the Jing-Jin-Ji region in China, an area of intensive human activities, was performed. A reliability of 94.3% was reached using the proposed socio-hydrological unit division and river confluence calculation method, suggesting that the approach is highly applicable. Thus, the proposed method for generating socio-hydrological units and determining river confluence relationships can be applied to study the mutual influence and spatial distribution characteristics of natural society dualistic water cycles. The data requirement is minimal, and the approach can provide benefits in research on human water systems.

A 1D Cd-coordination polymer containing serine derivative and its application in luminescence sensor for Tb(Ⅲ)

A novel chiral Cd-coordination polymer (CP1) was synthesized by solvothermal reaction with chiral ligand 1,4-bis((L‑serine)methyl)benzene (L-H2bsmb) and cadmium oxide, and the structure of CP1 was characterized by single-crystal X-ray diffraction, fourier transform infrared spectoscopy (FT-IR), powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), elemental analysis (EAs), solid circular dichroism (CD) and fluorescence spectroscopy. One dimensional chain for CP1 was constructed to a chiral 3D structure by intermolecular hydrogen bonds between carboxyl group and coordination water molecules and weak interaction of C‒H•••π. In aqueous system, the fluorescence of CP1 shows excellent stability. Through the detection experiments towards 32 different ions, it was found that CP1 has specific selection for Tb(Ⅲ) ions with the fast response time (within 1 min), low detection limit (11.4 nM), strong anti-interference ability and good recyclability. Fluorescent test strips based on CP1 allow to sense Tb(Ⅲ) ion quickly and easily by naked eyes, which provides an excellent method for monitoring Tb(Ⅲ) in human body and water systems.

Exploring water quality management with a socio-hydrological model: a case study from Burkina Faso

ABSTRACT Models that can integrate aspects of society such as institutions, perceptions and behaviours with aspects of the natural system such as rainfall, runoff and water quality may help us understand and manage complex human–water systems. In this paper, a socio-hydrological model is developed for the Black Volta (Mouhoun) watershed in Burkina Faso. The model captures the relationships between the awareness of water quality issues and capacity of local organizations, land use in the riparian zone, agricultural practices and suspended sediment concentration as an indicator of water quality. Scenarios are generated for the current situation and for plausible pathways to achieve improved water quality through different riparian land management strategies. Scenario comparison show how water quality improvements are generated if institutional support, resources and capacity of local level organizations are substantially increased compared to current levels.

Integrated assessment of localized SSP–RCP narratives for climate change adaptation in coupled human-water systems

The assessment of climate change impacts requires downscaled climate projections and context-specific socioeconomic scenarios. The development of practical climate change adaptation for environmental sustainability at regional and local scales is predicated on a strong understanding of future socio-economic dynamics under a range of potential climate projections. We have addressed this need using integrated assessment of a localized hybrid Shared Socio-economic Pathway - Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) framework, through an interdisciplinary and participatory storyline development process that integrates bottom-up local expert-stakeholder knowledge with top-down insights from global SSPs. We use the global SSPs (SSP1 to SSP5) as boundary conditions in conjunction with climate change pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) to create localized SSP narratives in an iterative participatory process, using a storytelling method. By using an integrated socio-economic and environmental system dynamics model developed in collaboration with local stakeholders, we explore the potential impacts of plausible local SSP-RCP narratives and quantify important socio-environmental vulnerabilities of a human-water system (e.g., crop yields, farm income, water security and groundwater depletion) by the mid-century period (i.e., by 2050). The framework is developed to inform climate adaptation for Pakistan's Rechna Doab region, which serves as a representative case of a multi-stakeholder coupled human-water system operating in a developing country. Our results suggest that even under limited socio-economic improvements (e.g., technology, policies, institutions, environmental awareness) water security would be expected to decline and environmental degradation (e.g., groundwater depletion) to worsen. Under RCP 4.5, the average projected increase in water demand in 2030 will be about 7.32% for all SSP scenario narratives, and 10.82% by mid-century. Groundwater use varies significantly across SSPs which results in an average increase of about 29.06% for all SSPs. The proposed framework facilitates the development of future adaptation policies that should consider regional and local planning as well as socio-economic conditions.

The Impact of River Regulation on Downstream Socio-Hydrologic Systems in Ethiopia

Abstract In recent years, a renewed interest in large-scale hydraulic interventions has developed, frequently justified by the premise of making the agricultural and energy sectors climate-resilient. Despite this important climate effort, hydraulic interventions are controversial and have far-reaching impacts on river-dependent communities and the environment. Drawing on gis analyses of remote sensing images and qualitative and quantitative empirical evidence from the field, this PhD dissertation focused on the impact of two large dams and one inter-basin water transfer (ibwt) on downstream socio-hydrologic systems (coupled human-water systems) in Ethiopia. The results indicated that (i) downstream hydrogeomorphic systems drastically altered after the implementation of the hydraulic interventions, (ii) small-scale farmer-led irrigation systems more efficiently increased crop productivities than several large-scale irrigation projects, (iii) the newly induced hydrologic regimes strongly altered downstream social interactions due to impeded river crossing and (iv) ill-prepared land redistributions and resettlements left thousands of households with a high risk of impoverishment.

Statistically examining the connection between dike development and human perceptions in the floodplains' socio-hydrology system of Vietnamese Mekong Delta

Efforts on socio-hydrology science have been promoted to solve challenges faced by contemporary water management. This study aims to better understand the co-evolution of human-water systems in floodplains. Specifically, farmers' opinions on flooding, dike effects, and living conditions in different dike systems in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta floodplain are compared to explore possible connections between human perceptions and dike development processes by employing in-depth interviews of 7 officials and oral surveys of 100 farmers supported by a literature review. Local specific contexts have resulted in various dike systems. One mixed-low-dike-dominant, two mixed-high-dike-dominant, and one only-high-dike zones are found in the research area. High dikes have been operating in an ad hoc response to short-term demands in the mixed-dike zones while strictly following a provincial schedule in the only-high-dike zone. The Fisher-Freeman-Halton test was used to compare the farmers' opinions on diverse questions between the zones. Dike development processes are suggested to influence livelihood, transportation, perceived flood peak changes and perceived causes for declining fish stocks. Although it remains challenging to directly attribute these differences to the dike development processes themselves, a new interrelated dike-flood-livelihood feedback loop is proposed for floodplains. Insights obtained are expected to support decision makers formulating tailored climate change adaptation policies to the different socio-hydrological zones. Our findings also contribute to the current understanding of international scientific communities on the human-water system and provide materials to further develop socio-hydrological models that strengthen our predictive capability on how the complex system evolves in floodplains.

A Systematic Review of Spatial-Temporal Scale Issues in Sociohydrology

Sociohydrology is a recent effort to integrate coupled human-water systems to understand the dynamics and co-evolution of the system in a holistic sense. However, due to the complexity and uncertainty involved in coupled human-water systems, the feedbacks and interactions are inherently difficult to model. Part of this complexity is due to the multi-scale nature across space and time at which different hydrologic and social processes occur and the varying scale at which data is available. This systematic review seeks to comprehensively collect those documents that conduct analysis within the sociohydrology framework to quantify the spatial-temporal scale(s) and the types of variables and datasets that were used. Overall, a majority of sociohydrology studies reviewed were primarily published in hydrological journals and contain more established hydrological, rather than social, models. The spatial extents varied by political and natural boundaries with the most common being cities and watersheds. Temporal extents also varied from event-based to millennial timescales where decadal and yearly were the most common. In addition to this, current limitations of sociohydrology research, notably the absence of an interdisciplinary unity, future directions, and implications for scholars doing sociohydrology are discussed.

Longitudinal survey data for diversifying temporal dynamics in flood risk modelling

Abstract. Scholars have unravelled the complexities and underlying uncertainties in coupled human and water systems in various fields and disciplines. These complexities, however, are not always reflected in the way in which the dynamics of human–water systems are modelled. One reason is the lack of social data time series, which may be provided by longitudinal surveys. Here, we show the value of collecting longitudinal survey data to enrich sociohydrological modelling of flood risk. To illustrate, we compare and contrast two different approaches (repeated cross-sectional and panel) for collecting longitudinal data and explore changes in flood risk awareness and preparedness in a municipality hit by a flash flood in 2018. We found that risk awareness has not changed significantly in the timeframe under study (1 year). Perceived preparedness increased only among those respondents who suffered low damage during the flood event. We also found gender differences across both approaches for most of the variables explored. Lastly, we argue that results that are consistent across the two approaches can be used for the parametrisation of sociohydrological models. We posit that there is a need to enhance the representation of socio-demographic heterogeneity in modelling human–water systems in order to better support risk management.

Climate and sea surface trends in the Galapagos Islands

The Galapagos Islands are a global hotspot of environmental change. However, despite their potentially major repercussions, little is known about current and expected changes in regional terrestrial climate variables and sea surface temperatures (SST). Here, by analysing existing meteorological observations and secondary datasets, we find that the Islands have warmed by about 0.6 °C since the early 1980s, while at the same time becoming drier. In fact, the onset of the wet season is currently delayed 20 days. This drying trend may reverse, however, given that future climate projections for the region suggest mean annual precipitation may increase between 20 and 70%. This would also be accompanied by more extreme wet and hot conditions. Further, we find that regional SST has increased by 1.2 °C over the last two decades. These changes will, in turn, translate into deterioration of marine ecosystems and coral, proliferation of invasive species, and damages to human water, food, and infrastructure systems. Future projections, however, may be overestimated due to the poor capacity of climatic models to capture Eastern-Pacific ENSO dynamics. Our findings emphasize the need to design resilient climate adaptation policies that will remain robust in the face of a wide range of uncertain and changing climatic futures.

Sociohydrology, ecohydrology, and the space-time dynamics of human-altered catchments

ABSTRACT A variety of interdisciplinary fields have provided distinct and complementary perspectives on human-water systems over the past few decades. In that context, an important distinctive feature of sociohydrology is its historical and methodological link to ecohydrology. This linkage implies a compatibility between the two fields that can be leveraged to address important modeling challenges in both fields. Sociohydrology has thus far focused on temporal dynamics and can benefit from recent advances in ecohydrology to represent spatial dynamics in coupled human-water systems. Conversely, as it increasingly focuses on human-altered catchments, ecohydrology can benefit from sociohydrology in terms of developing models of human behavior that are compatible with (eco)hydrological models, while being consistent with prevailing social science theories. We review recent work in ecohydrology and sociohydrology that substantiates these two arguments, and discuss the modeling of water-borne diseases as an example of a promising avenue of research that connects the two fields.