Assessing the suitability of groundwater resources based on farmers’ predicted intentions and human–water feedbacks

Abstract

In this study, a behavioral −hydrological simulation modeling framework is developed to explore the functioning of human-water systems. The main objective is to identify the psycho-social factors affecting water conservation intentions among farmers, and then realize the interactions and bidirectional feedback between humans and water resources. For this purpose, the agent-based modeling (ABM) and extended theory of planned behavior (TPB) is recruited to reflect on the agents’ behaviors. As the first step, the framework of the extended TPB together with the agent behavior was designed via field researches through the completion of 169 questionnaires upon proportional-to-size (PPS) random sampling. The partial least squares-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) is then implemented, at the second step, to analyze the data and obtain the weights of the extended TPB constructs. The results reveal that the constructs supplemented to the TPB, including moral norms (MNs) and perceived risk (PR), could have significant effects on water conservation intentions and behaviors among farmers. At the last step, the farmers and their decision-making as the dynamic elements by obtaining feedbacks of water resources were modeled using the ABM. To evaluate the proposed framework, the recorded data of groundwater fluctuations and cultivated areas in the Lenjanat plain is utilized and compared with the socio-hydrological simulation modeling outcomes using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient. Then, five scenarios are defined to shed light on the changes in the agent behavior on the aquifer suitability, including water consumption rate and groundwater levels in the aquifer. The results correspondingly demonstrated that merging the second and third scenarios in an effort to raise the prices of crops with low water need along with the increase in utility costs (here, water and electricity) could lead to a 75% increase of farmers’ income and a 21.5% reduction in the surface and groundwater uses in this region, implying the highest level of water conservation among other scenarios.