Human Influence Research Articles

Coevolutionary dynamics of collective cooperation and dilemma strength in a collective-risk game

Human behavioral decision-making influences the gaming environment. In turn, changes in the gaming environmental impact individual strategic choices. However, there is scant exploration into how human behavioral decision-making coevolves with dilemma strength. Here, we propose a coevolutionary game model based on collective-risk social dilemma, where an increase in cooperators within the game group reduces the dilemma strength, and vice versa. Upon examining this coupled system, we find that the system is capable of achieving a relatively optimal state, wherein the population sustains a high level of cooperation and the dilemma strength remains at the lowest level. In addition, we have identified the conditions for the emergence of tristability and bistability in the coupled system and numerically validated our theoretical results. Furthermore, we find that the incorporation of institutional rewards not only promotes the appearance of the system's optimal state, where all individuals choose to cooperate and the dilemma strength is at its lowest level, but it also effectively averts the manifestation of the system's worst state, where all individuals resort to defection and the dilemma strength reaches its highest level. These findings illuminate how cooperation can be sustained when a dynamical coupling exists between individual decision-making and dilemma strength. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

The effect of regular chokeberry juice consumption on anthropometric and lipid parameters in women with overweight or obesity.

Aronia melanocarpa is nowadays valued for its high content of biologically active substances, the main group of which are polyphenols, which include anthocyanins, flavonols, flavanols, proanthocyanidins and phenolic acids. From the available sources, we can conclude that extracts and juices from black chokeberry have a great potential in human nutrition and influence on their health. The research was to evaluate the effect of regular consumption of 100% organic chokeberry juice on selected anthropometric and lipid parameters of overweight or obese women. A clinical study consisted of 19 women with overweight and obesity, age from 44 to 63. The probands consumed 50 ml of chokeberry juice daily for 8 weeks as part of their regular diet. Body composition and biochemical indicators were monitored before consumption, after 4 and 8 weeks of nutritional intervention. Body composition was determined using multifrequency bioelectrical impedance analysis (MFBIA) - InBody 720. Biochemical analyzes of blood serum were performed using standard methods in an accredited laboratory using automatic biochemical analyzer a BioMajesty JCA-BM6010/C. The monitored group of probands is characterized by menopausale and postmenopausale women, overweight or obese women with hypercholesterolemia without pharmacological treatment. Statistically significant differences (p<0.05) were observed when evaluating the amount of body fat (BFM) of the probands before the start of consumption and after the consumption of chokeberry juice. We noted a statistically significant reduction especially in the assessment of visceral fat (VFA) (p<0.001). There were no fundamentally significant changes in the lipid profile of women in this intervention study. With short-term consumption of chokeberry juice (after 4 weeks), we recorded an average reduction in total cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol, but without statistical significant. We also focused on the evaluation of the inflammatory marker CRP and noted a significant beneficial reduction of CRP (p˂0.05). In the research, we evaluated the effect of 8 weeks consumption of 100% chokeberry juice on selected anthropometric parameters, focusing on changes in visceral fat and total fat in overweight and obese women. In conclusion, we can state that the regular consumption of chokeberry juice has a beneficial effect on fat tissue in women of reproductive age, which can reduce the risk of cardiovascular diseases.

Ocean Literacy and Metabolic Rift Theory for Addressing the Effects of the Marine Ecological Crisis

Abstract: Natural resources are used by society to produce goods and this proceeding mediated by human work which transforms nature. This process is called social metabolism and is expressed differently throughout history. In the capitalist mode of production, the exchange value subsumes use value and nature is modified on a scale beyond its reproduction capacity, establishing a metabolic rift that expands to different environments, including the marine. Ocean Literacy (OL) – understanding the human influence on the oceans and the influence of the oceans on human society – aims to contribute to overcoming the ecological crisis in the ocean, however, it is focused on a logic that ranges from the Enlightenment to post-modern perspectives. In the present work, it is proposed that OL incorporates the theory of metabolic rift in order to be able to organize society to face the challenges related to oceanic issues such as acidification, extinction of biodiversity, overfishing, etc. Finally, a case study of the “Onda Cultural’” (Cultural Wave) educational initiative of the “Laboratório de Genética Marinha e Evolução” (Marine Genetics and Evolution Laboratory) at Universidade Federal Fluminense (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) is presented in its attempt to incorporate this theory into its OL practices and activities in public schools. Key Words: Oceanic crisis. Metabolic rift. Social metabolism. Estate schools.

Anthropogenic influences on the extremely dry and hot summer of 2020 in Southern China and projected changes in the likelihood of the event

During summer 2020, Southern China experienced an extremely dry and hot summer, which was identified as one of the top ten domestic weather and climate extreme events in 2020 by China Meteorological Administration. Summer mean precipitation, surface air temperature (TAS), and number of hot days (NHD) were about 25% dryer, 1.5 °C warmer, and 11 days larger than the 1981–2010 climatologies. These are the 4th largest precipitation deficit, the highest TAS, and the 2nd highest NHD in the 1961–2020 record. The large-scale circulation anomalies over the West Pacific increased the likelihood of the extreme hot and dry summer. Anthropogenic influences on this extreme summerwere investigated using 525-member ensembles of the atmosphere-only HadGEM3-GA6 model and the multi-model ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Anthropogenic forcings doubled (increased by 27%) the probability of precipitation deficits, and increased occurrence more than 106 times for both TAS anomaly (50 times probability higher) and NHD anomaly (6 times probability higher) in HadGEM-GA6 (CMIP6). That means that the 2020-like TAS and NHD anomalies would not occur without anthropogenic forcings, and there is weak evidence that human influences decrease rainfall over Southern China. However, the precipitation deficit increased the likelihood of exceeding the observed thresholds for both TAS and NHD by about 17 (4) and 9 (1) times in HadGEM3-GA6 (CMIP6), respectively. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios in the future, 2020-like hot but wet extreme summer increases in magnitude and frequency, while the frequency of dry summer declines.

Temporal distributions of aerosols over the Horn of Africa–Ethiopia using MODIS satellite data: Part 01

There are large temporal variations in the optical properties and types of aerosols. These are due to the effects of environmental and meteorological conditions, industrial and agricultural influences, and other human influences and natural factors in each ecological functional area. Aerosol optical depth AOD and Ångström exponent AE parameters were extracted from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer MODIS satellite with a 3 km resolution of MOD04_3K and MYD04_3K. The study covers sixteen selected stations in Horn Africa–Ethiopia with neighboring Eritrea, Djibouti, and South Sudan countries clustered into four regions for the periods of 2001–2022 to obtain detailed information on the temporal behaviors and classification of aerosols in each season. The results show that the temporal variability of AOD and AE values is large, with values ranging from 0.00 to 2.10 and 0.67 to 1.23, with minimum values most likely between December 16 and January 07, and maximum values between June 22 and July 24 for both Terra and Aqua in the southeast and northeast clusters, respectively. The lowest AOD and AE values were most common in the Belg (during September–November) and sometimes in Bega (during December–February), while the highest were in the Kiremt season (during June–August). The minimum values were observed at the Kebri Dahar site, and the maximum were at the Erta Ale site, which belongs to Ethiopia. Appropriate AOD and AE thresholds were used to classify the aerosol types into marine (MR), dust (DS), biomass burning (BB), desert dust (DD), urban (UR), and the residual cases were considered mixture (MX) types. The study concludes that marine aerosols were the most abundant at 47.71%, followed by urban aerosols at 28.29%, while desert dusts, enriched at 14.65%, accounted for the third place with free of dust particles. The Mann–Kendall (MK) statistical trend test was applied to the annual time series in all clustered regions and shows an almost positive increasing variability with a slight decrease in the forward series and vice–versa.

Identifying the spatio-seasonal pattern of hydrochemical evolution and surface water-groundwater interaction in a large urban river basin, Northwest China

There is insufficient understanding of the spatio-temporal evolution of surface water-groundwater quality and hydraulic connection under both natural and human influences in urban river basins. To this end, this paper investigated the spatio-seasonal pattern of hydrochemical evolution and surface water-groundwater interaction in a typical urban river basin (Dahei River basin) based on isotopic and hydrochemical data of 132 water samples collected during three seasons (normal, wet and dry seasons). From the normal season to the wet season, surface water in the Dahei River basin was dominated by the impacts of evaporation and groundwater discharge processes. During this period, the precipitation and agricultural activities (canal irrigation) were frequent. Thus, groundwater was affected by irrigation infiltration of surface water and precipitation from high-altitude areas. From the wet season to the dry season, precipitation decreased and irrigation methods changed (canal irrigation → well irrigation). In this case, groundwater discharge had a stronger impact on surface water, and shallow groundwater was recharged by deep groundwater through the well irrigation. Under this hydrological pattern, the hydrochemical characteristics of surface water were mainly influenced by evaporation, human activities (agricultural irrigation and sewage treatment) and groundwater discharge. In contrast, the hydrochemical characteristics of groundwater were main influenced by water-rock interactions (dissolution of evaporites and silicates, and cation exchange) and human activities. This study contributed to a better understanding of the hydrochemical and hydrological processes in urban river basins and provided a theoretical basis for the sustainable management of water resources.

Potential distribution of three invasive agricultural pests in China under climate change

Invasive pests reduce biodiversity and ecosystem service functions, thereby leading to economic and also agricultural losses. Banana skipper (Erionota torus Evans), red palm weevil (Rhynchophorus ferrugineus), and coconut caterpillar (Opisina arenosella Walker) are invasive insect pests in the palm-growing regions and they have had serious consequences for the planting of bananas (Musa nana), palms (Trachycarpus fortune) and coconut (Cocos nucifera). Based on screened occurrence data, the present research utilized Maximum Entropy model (Maxent) to simulate the distribution dynamics of these three invasive insects in China, under current and future climate (2050s, 2070s, 2090s) in two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs: 126 and 585) of the newly released coupled model intercomparison project phase6 (CMIP6). The results show that: (1) Under current and future climate conditions, all model groups exhibited an AUC value exceeding 0.92, which shows that the model prediction results are very good;(2) The suitable habitat area of E. torus Evans remains relatively stable with some expansion in the SSP126 of 2090s and some contraction in the SSP585 of 2090s. The suitable habitat area of R. ferrugineus showed an overall contraction, with substantial contraction in the SSP585 of 2090s.The suitable habitat area of O. arenosella has an overall expansion, with the most pronounced expansion in the SSP585 of 2070s; (3) The current centroid of suitable habitats for R. ferrugineus and E. torus Evans is located in Guangxi Province and wholely shift toward the south direction under future climate. The centroid of suitable habitats for O. arenosella is currently located in the northeastern maritime area of Hainan Province and will shift toward the north direction under future climate; (4) Temperature, precipitation and Human disturbance factors (Population density and Human influence index) were crucial variables for describing the distribution of the three species. For E. torus Evans in particular, percentage contributions of Population density was up to 31.4, which is only 0.1 different from ranked first Bio19 (Precipitation of the coldest quarter). The dynamics of habitats of these three species and the correlating driver factors proposed in this work provide essential insights into future spatial management of the three invasive insects in China. Our work is necessary and timely in identifying newly areas at high risk of expansion of the three invasive insects in the future, then suggesting strategic control measures to prevent their spread, and finally providing scientific evidence for the early prevention and rapid response to the three invasive insects.

Gaps and opportunities in modelling human influence on species distributions in the Anthropocene

Understanding species distributions is a global priority for mitigating environmental pressures from human activities. Ample studies have identified key environmental (climate and habitat) predictors and the spatial scales at which they influence species distributions. However, regarding human influence, such understandings are largely lacking. Here, to advance knowledge concerning human influence on species distributions, we systematically reviewed species distribution modelling (SDM) articles and assessed current modelling efforts. We searched 12,854 articles and found only 1,429 articles using human predictors within SDMs. Collectively, these studies of >58,000 species used 2,307 unique human predictors, suggesting that in contrast to environmental predictors, there is no ‘rule of thumb’ for human predictor selection in SDMs. The number of human predictors used across studies also varied (usually one to four per study). Moreover, nearly half the articles projecting to future climates held human predictors constant over time, risking false optimism about the effects of human activities compared with climate change. Advances in using human predictors in SDMs are paramount for accurately informing and advancing policy, conservation, management and ecology. We show considerable gaps in including human predictors to understand current and future species distributions in the Anthropocene, opening opportunities for new inquiries. We pose 15 questions to advance ecological theory, methods and real-world applications.

Human Agency and Coastal Landscape Transformation in Early Modern Atlantic Europe: An Interdisciplinary Research Approach in the Urola Estuary (Basque Coast)

ABSTRACT Landscapes are the result of historical human–environment interactions whose material imprints are recorded in the local topography, hydrography, and sedimentary archives. Human influence is particularly visible in coastal and estuarine landscapes, due to the continuity and intensity of occupation since, at least, the Middle Ages. This paper analyses the historical evolution of an estuarine landscape in Atlantic Iberia, based on the combined analysis of documentary sources, land covers, and sediment cores. The observed anthropic impact relies on the superposition of different agents and processes that has been traced in detail from the Middle Ages to the present, permitting a critical and integrated reconsideration of the written and oral records and their confrontation with the materiality of the landscape. These results highlight the value of the proposed research approach for the study of human–environment interactions of a limited geographical area over the long term. More generally, it has been possible to link these agents and processes operating on the local scale to wider regional and global historical trends, contributing to better characterising and understanding the nature of the anthropogenic impact on coastal environments.

Climate Change is Happening and Humans are Responsible

We know Earth is warming. Clear evidence of warming can be seen in observations of the atmosphere, oceans, ice, and living things. Computer simulations can tell us what the world would have looked like without increases in greenhouse gases and other human influences, and Earth would not have warmed up like we have seen. By comparing the changes scientists have observed to computer simulations of the climate including or excluding various potential causes, scientists can work out what or who is responsible for the climate changes. Again and again, it has been shown that these simulations can only explain observed climate changes when historic emissions of greenhouse gases, principally arising from burning coal, oil, and gas, are included. The best estimate is that all the warming we have observed since 1850–1900 is due to greenhouse gas emissions produced by human activities.

The Role of Generative AI in Shaping Millennials and Gen Z’s Orientation Toward Luxury Products

This study investigates the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI)-generated promotional content and status motivations on the perception of luxury brands among Millennials and Generation Z. The author adopts a mixed-method research approach that integrates a quantitative survey and structural equation modeling analysis with qualitative Natural Language Processing (NLP). The findings reveal that generative AI promotional content impacts millennials and Gen Z’s purchase intention due to its perceived entertainment, transparency, and usefulness. Status motivations had a stronger impact on purchase intention, and demographic characteristics were significantly different in their results. The study is the first to examine the human characteristics of perceived expertise, transparency, and entertainment in an AI context in light of status consumption motivation. As AI is expected to have more human-like characteristics and behavior, testing theories centered on human influence in an AI context is crucial for marketing theory and practice.

A record of late Holocene sea level and human impacts from the southeastern Coast of Sri Lanka

AMS radiocarbon-dated palynological evidence from Embilikala Lagoon in Bundala National Park (one of the Ramsar wetland sites) on the southeast coast of Sri Lanka indicates palaeoenvironmental changes during the last 2,700 years. The persistence of fewer mangroves (eg Rhizophoraceae taxa) suggests that sea level low stands occurred between 2,700 and 1750 cal yr BP. From the later age, the relative sea level rose, and reached the present sea level at 950 cal yr BP as indicated by the mangrove maximum. At 2,250, 700–400 and 200–150 cal yr BP, the sudden increase in marine dinoflagellate cysts (eg Spiniferites mirabilis) and foraminifera (Globigerinoides ruber) suggests increased marine influence. This is consistent with a decrease in mangrove habitats. Between 2,700 and 950 cal yr BP, severely degraded dry monsoon forests and minimal levels mangrove suggest human and marine influences were the critical drivers for changing the major vegetation types along the southeastern coast. Vegetation changes have been drastic over the last millennia.

115 years of sediment deposition in a reservoir in Central Europe: Effects of the industrial history and environmental protection on heavy metals and microplastic

AbstractHumans have considerably influenced accumulation rates and sediment composition in lake deposits. Due to near‐continuous accumulation, lakes and reservoirs are an excellent archive of these anthropogenic influences. The Urft Reservoir in the Eifel Mountains, western Germany, provides a unique record of the human influence on the landscape for the past 115 years. In 2020 and 2021, 24 cores and 23 surface samples were obtained from the bottom of the, by that time drained, reservoir. Grain size, heavy metals, weathering signatures and microplastic were analysed. For the chronology, caesium‐137 and microplastic were used. Using the first occurrence of microplastic as well as different plastic types for dating was not successful. However, a distinct layer with a high number of microplastic particles could be traced back to a fire in 1991 and was used as an additional stratigraphic marker in the age‐depth model. A period of relatively high accumulation rates in the reservoir occurred in the mid‐1950s and was related to enhanced construction works in the local valleys. Analysis of heavy metal content in the reservoir sediments shows a strong connection to historical changes in ore industry in the valley of the Urft. Stricter environmental protection laws and the decline of the metal processing industry resulted in a reduced input of lead, copper and zinc in the reservoir until the mid‐1980s. Since then, heavy metal content has remained relatively constant. A major flooding event in July 2021 did not lead to the remobilisation of older contaminated deposits as indicated by low heavy metal content in flood deposits. Accordingly, also the microplastic content is not increasing following the extreme event. Due to the degree of weathering of the flood deposits, it is argued that mainly hillslope material was transported into the Urft and subsequently into the Urft Reservoir during this event.

Pengaruh Kualitas Sumber Daya Manusia dan Budaya Organisasi terhadap Responsivitas Pelayanan Pegawai Badan Pendapatan Daerah Provinsi Sumatera Utara

The aim of this research is to determine and analyze the influence of HR quality on the service responsiveness of North Sumatra Province Regional Revenue Agency employees, to determine and analyze the influence of organizational culture on the service responsiveness of North Sumatra Province Regional Revenue Agency employees, to determine and analyze the influence of HR quality and organizational culture towards service responsiveness of North Sumatra Province Regional Revenue Agency employees. The population in this study were all employees of the Regional Revenue Agency of North Sumatra Province, namely 176 employees and sampling was carried out using total sampling so that 64 respondents were used as samples. Based on the research results, it is known that there is a positive influence of the HR quality variable on the Service Responsiveness variable, thus partially there is a significant influence between the quality of human resources on employee service responsiveness, there is a positive influence of the Organizational Culture variable on the Service Responsiveness variable) thus partially there is a significant influence between Organizational Culture on employee Service Responsiveness. The quality of human resources and organizational culture influence service responsiveness. Thus, there is a positive and significant influence on the quality of human resources and organizational culture on employee service responsiveness

Human Capital, Life Satisfaction, and the Floating Population’s Urban Settlement Intention in Cities—A Case Study of Six Cities in the Pearl River Delta

The urban settlement intention of the floating population and its influencing factors have received widespread attention, but there is less literature on the relationship between human capital, life satisfaction, and the urban settlement intention of the floating population. Employing 2146 questionnaire data from the Pearl River Delta’s floating population, this study establishes measurement indicators for human capital and life satisfaction, constructs a structural equation model, and examines the influence of human capital on life satisfaction, as well as their collective impact on the floating population’s urban settlement intentions. The findings reveal that human capital influences multiple facets of the floating population’s life satisfaction, which subsequently shapes its desire to settle. Considering individual life satisfaction, the economic well-being and social security contentment of the floating population exert a notable impact on its urban settlement intentions, whereas satisfaction with emotional life and public service facilities appears to have a less pronounced effect. Further investigation into how varying levels of human capital modulate the influence of life satisfaction on urban settlement intentions, alongside the transition from fundamental economic security to psychological needs (about life satisfaction), holds substantial referential value for research on population migration and the development of citizenship policies in China.

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387, Smith et al., 2024a). As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.

Urban Flood Modeling for Sustainability Management: Role of Design Rainfall and Land Use

This study aimed to evaluate how different methods of determining design rainfall levels and land usage affect flood hydrographs in an urban catchment; specifically, the catchment in southern Poland. The data included daily precipitation records from 1981 to 2020 and land cover information from Corine Land Cover and Urban Atlas databases for 2006 and 2018. The analysis involved examining precipitation data, determining design rainfall levels, analyzing land usage databases, exploring the influence of design rainfall levels on hydrograph characteristics, and investigating the database’s impact on these characteristics. No discernible trend in precipitation was found. The highest design rainfall values followed the GEV distribution, while the lowest followed the Gumbel distribution. Both land usage databases indicated an increasing human influence from 2006 to 2018. This study conclusively showed that the method used for estimating design rainfall and the choice of the land usage database significantly affected hydrograph characteristics. Multivariate analyses are recommended for design rainfall assessments, while the Urban Atlas database is preferred for urban catchment land usage determinations due to its detailed information.

Absent Presence: The Human Influence in AI-Generated Content in the Age of Technoculture

Absent Presence: The Human Influence in AI-Generated Content in the Age of Technoculture

Hydrodynamics and water quality of a highly anthropized wetland: the case study of the Massaciuccoli basin (Tuscany, Italy)

Owing to increasing anthropogenic impacts, wetlands have suffered a serious environmental decline in recent decades. The sustainable management of these natural resources is fundamental to maintain both the ecosystems and the economic activities. The Lake Massaciuccoli and nearby areas represent one of the largest residual coastal marshy areas in Tuscany (Italy). This wetland is characterized by large-scale and intensive agricultural use and affected by reclamation activities, with consequent problems of erosion, subsidence and lake eutrophication and siltation. In this context, an integrated study combining hydrochemical data (water levels, electrical conductivity, pH, turbidity, major ions, trace metals) and stable isotopes (H, O, S) has been performed in the southernmost part of the basin, to better disentangle processes and interactions between groundwater and surface water and to understand the origin of solutes and their evolution. Our results indicated that both groundwater and surface water have a meteoric origin and that geochemical composition of groundwater is mainly affected by local geological and biological processes. Moreover, surface water is affected by sea water mixing and evapotranspiration/precipitation processes. The impact of agricultural activity and the use of fertilizers on the water quality appears to be limited as regards nitrates, indicating that less intense agricultural practices implemented in recent years have been successful. As regards sulfates, Fe, and Mn, we cannot fully elucidate the mechanisms underlying human influence, but the oscillation of water level and degradation of peat enhanced by reclamation and agriculture activities likely played an important role in controlling the fate of these elements. Overall, these results underline the importance of integrated approaches to disentangle geochemical processes and will be useful in supporting policy implementation and environmental protection in this valuable area of Tuscany. Findings from this work suggest the need for policy-making authorities to take actions as soon as possible to mitigate risks. Closer co-operation is essential between authorities and farmers to reduce inputs of fertilizers and chemicals into the lake and the surrounding area. Also, additional policy measures should be enforced to reduce the mechanical soil tillage and limit erosion and runoff, such as the NBSs implemented within the Phusicos Project.

Integrating GIS, agent-based, and discrete event simulation to evaluate patient distribution policies for enhancing urban healthcare access network resilience

Ensuring healthcare network resilience during urban disasters is crucial for sustainability and public safety. This study evaluates patient distribution policies in healthcare networks through a case study following a simulated earthquake scenario to enhance resilience during such events. By integrating geographic information systems (GIS) to model road impacts, agent-based modeling (ABM) for patient movements, and discrete event simulation (DES) for hospital queues, six distribution policies were evaluated. The analysis prioritized two metrics: patient waiting times and unmet treatment demands within four days post-disaster. Results revealed that policies emphasizing minimal hospital wait times demonstrated superior performance, reducing average waiting times by 71% and unmet demands compared to proximity-based approaches. Sensitivity analyses highlighted human behavior's influence, with increased personal vehicle usage adversely impacting resilience. Conversely, expanding hospital capacities substantially improved resilience indicators. The findings underscore the importance of informed policymaking focused on wait time reduction to enhance healthcare access resilience. Incorporating real-time hospital wait times into ambulance dispatch decisions emerged as a promising strategy. This multi-method simulation approach provides valuable insights into optimizing emergency response for resilient urban healthcare systems.