Human Depopulation Research Articles

Effects of human depopulation and warming climate on bird populations in Japan.

Quantifying biodiversity trends in economically developed countries, where depopulation, associated secondary succession, and climate warming are ongoing, provides insights for global biodiversity conservation in the 21st century. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of secondary succession and climate warming on species' population trends at a national scale. We estimated the population trends of common breeding bird species in Japan and examined the associations between the overall population trend and species traits with the nationwide bird count data on 47 species collected from 2009 to 2020. The overall population trend varied among species. Four species populations increased moderately, 18 were stable, and 11 declined moderately. Population trends for 13 species were uncertain. The difference in overall trends among the species was associated with their habitat group and temperature niche. Species with relatively low-temperature niches experienced more pronounced declines. Multispecies indicators showed a moderate increase in forest specialists and moderate declines in forest generalists (species that use both forests and open habitats) and open-habitat specialists. Forest generalists and open-habitat specialists also declined more rapidly at sites with more abandoned farmland. All species groups showed an accelerated decline or decelerated increase after 2015. These results suggest that common breeding birds in Japan are facing deteriorating trends as a result of nationwide changes in land use and climate. Future land-use planning and policies should consider the benefits of passive rewilding for forest specialists and active restoration measures (e.g., low-intensive forestry and agriculture) for nonforest specialists to effectively conserve biodiversity in the era of human depopulation and climate warming.

Archaeological evidence shows widespread human depopulation of Last Glacial Maximum Northeast Asia

Archaeological evidence shows widespread human depopulation of Last Glacial Maximum Northeast Asia

Phenomenological Models of the Global Demographic Dynamics and Their Usage for Forecasting in 21<sup>st</sup> Century

A great discovery made by H. von Foerster, P. M. Mora and L. W. Amiot was published in a 1960 issue of “Science”. The authors showed that existing data for calculating the Earth’s population in the new era (from 1 to 1958) could be described with incredibly high proximity by a hyperbolic function with the point of singularity on 13 November 2026. Thus, empirical regularity of the rise of the human population was established, which was marked by explosive demographic growth in the 20th century when during only one century it almost quadrupled: from 1.656 billion in 1900 to 6.144 billion in 2000. Nowadays, the world population has already overcome 7.8 billion people. Immediately after 1960, an active search for phenomenological models began to explain the mechanism of the hyperbolic population growth and the following demographic transition designed to stabilize its population. A significant role in explaining the mechanism of the hyperbolic growth of the world population was played by S. Kuznets (1960) and E. Boserup (1965), who found out that the rates of technological progress historically increased in proportion to the Earth’s population. It meant that the growth of the population led to raising the level of life-supporting technologies, and the latter in its turn enlarged the carrying capacity of the Earth, making it possible for the world population to expand. Proceeding from the information imperative, we have developed the model of the demographic dynamics for the 21st century for the first time. The model shows that with the development and spread of Intelligent Machines (IM), the number of the world population reaching a certain maximum will then irreversibly decline. Human depopulation will largely touch upon the most developed countries, where IM is used intensively nowadays. Until a certain moment in time, this depopulation in developed countries will be compensated by the explosive growth of the population in African countries located south of the Sahara. Calculations in our model reveal that the peak of the human population of 8.52 billion people will be reached in 2050, then it will irreversibly go down to 7.9 billion people by 2100, if developed countries do not take timely effective measures to overcome the process of information depopulation.

Interpreting gaps: A geoarchaeological point of view on the Gravettian record of Ach and Lone valleys (Swabian Jura, SW Germany)

Unlike other Upper Paleolithic industries, Gravettian assemblages from the Swabian Jura are documented solely in the Ach Valley (35-30 Kcal BP). On the other hand, traces of contemporaneous occupations in the nearby Lone Valley are sparse. It is debated whether this gap is due to a phase of human depopulation, or taphonomic issues related with landscape changes.In this paper we present ERT, EC-logging and GPR data showing that in both Ach and Lone valleys sediments and archaeological materials eroded from caves and deposited above river incisions after 37-32 Kcal BP. We argued that the rate of cave erosion was higher after phases of downcutting, when hillside erosion was more intensive. To investigate on the causes responsible for the dearth of Gravettian materials in the Lone Valley we test two alternative hypotheses: i) Gravettian humans occupied less intensively this part of the Swabian Jura. ii) Erosion of cave deposits did not occur at the same time in the two valleys. We conclude that the second hypothesis is most likely. Ages from the Lone Valley show increasing multimillennial gaps between 36 and 18 Kcal BP, while a similar gap is present in the Ach Valley between 28 and 16 Kcal BP. Based on geoarchaeological data from previous studies and presented in this paper, we interpreted these gaps in radiocarbon data as indicating of cave erosion. Furthermore, we argued that the time difference across the two valleys show that the erosion of cave deposits began and terminated earlier in the Lone Valley, resulting in a more intensive removal of Gravettian-aged deposits. The hypothesis that cave erosion was triggered by regional landscape changes seems to be supported by geochronological data from the Danube Valley, which show that terrace formation at the end of the Pleistocene moved westwards throughout southern Germany with a time lag of few millennia.

Ecological consequences of human depopulation of rural areas on wildlife: A unifying perspective

The depopulation of rural areas by humans (or rural exodus) in southern Europe, and the associated abandonment of cropland, had marked ecological consequences on wildlife, which became evident approximately fifteen years ago. Shrub and tree encroachment, and the expansion of forest birds and the formerly persecuted mammalian ungulates and carnivores, were highlighted as the major consequences of the rural exodus in Italy. In this report, we provide a more integrative view, and show that a rural exodus also explains other ecological phenomena that are usually treated independently. After reviewing the ecological consequences of the rural exodus that has been affecting a large part of Spain during the last six decades, we suggest that this set of ecological consequences also includes the movement of shy-selected predators and large, big game species out of their former ecological refuges, as well as increased frequencies of individuals with bolder-behaviours in recovering populations. We develop a tentative conceptual model linking the increasing approach of wildlife to anthropogenic habitats and human depopulation of rural areas. These links are created by the increasing difficulty to survive and reproduce in recovering, high-predation wild areas, due to mesopredator release and the loss of fear to humans, among other factors. We acknowledge that the recovery of formerly persecuted wildlife in depopulated landscapes has been helped by conservation policies, but we suggest that policies alone cannot explain the observed changes. Finally, we propose that the processes we analyse on a national scale could be taking place in Europe on a continental scale as well, and will most likely occur in the future in other regions of the world, with the current growth in economies.

Promoting grazing or rewilding initiatives against rural exodus? The return of the wolf and other large carnivores must be considered

SummaryThe human abandonment of rural areas facilitates rewilding, which is also supported by European projects and initiatives. Rewilding often implies the return of iconic predators such as the wolf (Canis lupus), leading to human–wildlife conflicts. To reverse human depopulation, initiatives such as the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidize extensive grazing of areas unsuitable for intensive agriculture. Therefore, rewilding and reversing depopulation initiatives seem to be mutually incompatible, and further insight into controversial aspects of the return of apex predators is needed when considering the reform of the CAP for post-2020. To develop understanding of these different objectives in the context of large carnivore recolonizations, we analysed wolf attacks on livestock in central Spain, where livestock is managed differently between the plateau and the mountains. As with other European regions, this area is undergoing rural abandonment and is subsidized by the CAP. Free-roaming cattle at higher elevations were subject to increased attacks irrespective of the abundance of wild prey. Efforts to subsidize human repopulation of areas experiencing recolonization by large carnivores require consideration of a model of cohabitation with these predators assisted by mitigation and compensation measures. Rewilding could bring alternative sustainable income based on the values brought by the presence of large carnivores and associated ecosystem services.

Rewilding and restoring cultural landscapes in Mediterranean mountains: Opportunities and challenges

Farmland abandonment and the decline of livestock activity in the Mediterranean mountains have resulted in dramatic landscape changes, including the generalized expansion of shrublands and forests, and the homogenization of the old cultural landscapes. This process has a variety of consequences from ecological, geomorphological and hydrological points of view, as well as from the perspectives of land management and public awareness. An intense debate currently surrounds the discussion and evaluation of rewilding (the process of passively allowing woody encroachment, as well as the reintroduction of large mammals) as an opportunity for enhancing biodiversity and restoring original landscapes after centuries of human activity versus ecological restoration (activities leading to the recovery of degraded ecosystems, including clearing and light human activity). There is no clear consensus regarding the best way to improve the ecological relationships and functioning within an ecosystem. Biodiversity and sustainability can be seen under different levels of human pressure and landscape transformation; total farmland abandonment is not always the best alternative, particularly when local inhabitants aim to sustain themselves using local resources. Many geographers and ecologists consider that extensive stockbreeding in a partially open landscape is a rational way to (i) improve landscape organization, (ii) increase flows and turnover within the ecosystems, (iii) increase the diversity of plants and animals that benefit from a relatively light human presence, and (iv) reduce wildfire risk. However, it has proven challenging for land managers and stockbreeders to clear the best old abandoned fields and “construct” a sustainable, balanced landscape that combines forests, shrublands and open lands. Private landowner involvement and support from the general public is crucial for both funding and the long-term maintenance of benefits. The best old fields should be cleared in the context of high-resolution knowledge of the topography, grassland characteristics, grassland cycles and livestock management. Such efforts are likely to be an excellent opportunity to introduce compatibility between light human activity and increases in biodiversity and sustainability for many marginal mountains, where land abandonment and general forest/shrub recovery are the inevitable tendencies. This paper examines some of the contrasting positions of the scientific community regarding the rewilding or ecological restoration of mountain landscapes, and briefly highlights some experiences in which intentional clearing of old abandoned fields has benefited stockbreeding, biodiversity, runoff generation and wildfire risks. Notably, we describe a sub-Mediterranean valley of the Iberian Range, Northern Spain, as an example. In the long term, we find that the intentional clearing of the best old fields allows the slow organization of a final landscape that will be more useful for local inhabitants, thereby helping to reverse human depopulation in these regions.

A strategy for wildlife management in depopulating rural areas of Japan.

Former ranges of wild animals have been reestablished in many developed countries. However, this reestablishment has led to increasing human-wildlife conflict in agroforest ecosystems. In Japan, human-wildlife conflict, such as crop raiding by and ecological impacts of wild ungulates and primates, is a serious problem in depopulated rural areas due to these animal range expansions and increased abundances. Japan's human population is predicted to decline by 24% by 2050, and approximately 20% of agricultural settlements will become completely depopulated. In this scenario, anthropogenic pressures on wildlife (e.g., hunting and habitat alteration) will continue to decrease and human-wildlife conflict will increase due to increasing wildlife recovery. Japan's local governments plan to slow range recovery, prevent species reestablishment, or remove recolonizing large mammals through lethal control. This strategy, however, is not cost-effective, and workforce shortages in depopulated communities make it infeasible. Moreover, the suppression of wildlife prevents the recovery of ecological functions and thus would degrade regional biodiversity. The declining pressure on wildlife that accompanies human depopulation will prevent the restoration of any past states of human-wildlife interaction. We suggest human-used areas in rural landscapes be aggregated in compact cities and that in transition zones between human settlements and depopulated lands that land-sharing approaches be applied. Concentrating management efforts in compact cities may effectively decrease human-wildlife conflict, rather than intensifying human pressures. Reforestation of depopulated lands may lead to recovery of wildlife habitats, their ecosystem functions, and regional biodiversity due to minimization of negative anthropogenic effects (land-sparing approach). Balancing resolution of human-wildlife conflict and ecological rewilding could become a new, challenging task for regional wildlife managers.

Soil science beyond COVID-19

T he fast-moving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic engulfed the world within four months from December to March of 2020, with long-lasting impacts on social, economic, political, educational, and scientific programs. It exacerbated risks of food and nutritional insecurity for a large segment of society, and threats of disruption in the food supply chain may be aggravated by climate change, soil degradation, and the flood/drought syndrome. Ensuring adequate access to nutritious food is a daunting challenge even in developed/scientifically advanced countries, and is a sheer tragedy in poor nations. The sudden collapse caused by COVID-19 indicates fragility of humanity even to a microscopic foe. Cruel as it may seem, COVID-19 has accomplished what COP21 (the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference of Parties) and other initiatives could not. Atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) have not risen during March and April of 2020 (Storrow 2020; Flis 2020) because of the closure of the industry and travel restrictions. Even one month of lockdown has made the water of the Ganges River drinkable, air in cities like New Delhi and Beijing purer, and skies bluer than seen in decades (Biswas 2020). Historically, there is also strong evidence that a significant human depopulation (i.e.,…

THE MISSISSIPPIAN FIN DE SIÈCLE IN THE MIDDLE CUMBERLAND REGION OF TENNESSEE

Bayesian chronological modeling is used to investigate the chronology for a large-scale human depopulation event during the Mississippian period (AD 1000–1600) known as the Vacant Quarter phenomenon. The Middle Cumberland region (MCR) of Tennessee is within the Vacant Quarter area, and six villages from the final phase of Mississippian activity in the MCR have been subjected to radiocarbon dating. Complete radiocarbon datasets from these sites are presented within an interpretative Bayesian statistical framework. The results provide a unique history of each settlement and demonstrate that Mississippian occupations at each site likely terminated in the mid- to late fifteenth and possibly early sixteenth centuries AD, which is 50 to 100 years later than the most recent estimate for the timing of the Vacant Quarter. Mississippian abandonment in the MCR was relatively quick, likely occurring over less than a century. The exact reasons for abandonment are not entirely clear but appear to be linked to climate change. A radiocarbon simulation experiment indicates that future robust radiocarbon dating with well-selected samples could greatly improve the chronological precision for this late Mississippian activity. More broadly, this example demonstrates that model building with radiocarbon simulations can be used to address regional-scale chronological issues within the American Southeast and beyond.

Emerging wildlife issues in an age of large-scale human depopulation—Introduction

Emerging wildlife issues in an age of large-scale human depopulation—Introduction

Evidence of a short-lived episode of olive (Olea europaea L.) cultivation during the Early Bronze Age in western Mediterranean (southern Italy)

Anthracological analysis was carried out in the archaeological site of Punta di Zambrone on the Tyrrhenian coast of Calabria in southern Italy. Archaeological excavation documented at the site settlement deposits dated mainly to Early Bronze Age (EBA, 21st–18th century BC) and the Recent Bronze Age (RBA, 13th to early 12th century BC). In the phase of the EBA village, the high frequency of Olea europaea in the charcoal data suggests the tree may well have been cultivated by favouring the spread of the scant olive trees growing wild. Comparison with existing archaeobotanical data indicates that olive cultivation spread over a large portion of southern Italy from the EBA and the early Middle Bronze Age (MBA, 17th–15th century BC), thus calling into question the hypothesis of its first cultivation related to the interaction between Mycenaean Greece and local cultures in southern Italy. The early domestication event at Punta di Zambrone supports the idea of multiple independent primary events of olive domestication throughout the Mediterranean basin. In the following phase of the fortified settlement dated to the RBA, the frequency of olive charcoal diminished and the expansion of a more or less dense forest dominated by Quercus was judged to be a consequence of human depopulation that characterises the end of MBA and also a different land use of RBA. This forest increase, also recorded by other archaeobotanical proxies in the central and southern Italian peninsula, is found to be related to the diffusion in southern Calabria of the Subapennine culture, spreading from more northerly areas of Italy and bringing different economic systems and agronomic knowledge. These far-reaching changes appear to have brought to a halt the first event of olive cultivation recorded at Punta di Zambrone.

Study of Floristic Composition of Arnica Montana L. Grasslands Exploited Low-Input

In sustainable view and given the new climate and demographic phenomena, the mountains must be a clean living environment, supplier of energy, biodiversity and food for humans and animals, adequate safety measures and good management, with continued compliance with the balance agroforestry and preventing human depopulation and agricultural traditions and cultural degradation. Oligotrophic grasslands from Gârda de Sus village was a subject of Arnica Project (2004-2007, www.arnica-montana.ro). This project aimed at sustainable exploitation of Arnica montana L. species benefit and welfare of local people. So, oligotrophic grasslands have managed so as to maintain the species Arnica montana L. in abundance-dominance as possible. Following this project was set into remote exploit local species Arnica montana L. and that capitalize on the international market as certified product. Interests of entrepreneurs are to maintain the existing flora in the oligotrophic meadows. The obiective of our study is to evaluate the effect of low-inputs on a grassland of Arnica montana  L. from boreal floor, Gârda de Sus, Apuseni Mountains, Romania. In Apuseni Mountains, extensive grazing and extensive meadow management practices have been typically for subsistencebased or small-scale farming systems in areas of low agriculture productivity. However, longer term effects of these grasslands need to be investigated.

Study of Floristic Composition of Arnica Montana L. Grasslands Exploited Low-Input

In sustainable view and given the new climate and demographic phenomena, the mountains must be a clean living environment, supplier of energy, biodiversity and food for humans and animals, adequate safety measures and good management, with continued compliance with the balance agroforestry and preventing human depopulation and agricultural traditions and cultural degradation. Oligotrophic grasslands from Gârda de Sus village was a subject of Arnica Project (2004-2007, www.arnica-montana.ro). This project aimed at sustainable exploitation of Arnica montana L. species benefit and welfare of local people. So, oligotrophic grasslands have managed so as to maintain the species Arnica montana L. in abundance-dominance as possible. Following this project was set into remote exploit local species Arnica montana L. and that capitalize on the international market as certified product. Interests of entrepreneurs are to maintain the existing flora in the oligotrophic meadows. The obiective of our study is to evaluate the effect of low-inputs on a grassland of Arnica montana  L. from boreal floor, Gârda de Sus, Apuseni Mountains, Romania. In Apuseni Mountains, extensive grazing and extensive meadow management practices have been typically for subsistencebased or small-scale farming systems in areas of low agriculture productivity. However, longer term effects of these grasslands need to be investigated.

353 Environmental impacts of mid-20^<th> Century human depopulation of island landscapes : A case study from the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia

353 Environmental impacts of mid-20^<th> Century human depopulation of island landscapes : A case study from the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia

The impact of agro‐pastoral abandonment on the Rock Partridge Alectoris graeca in the Apennines

Human depopulation of rural mountain areas and the consequent abandonment of traditional land management are among the greatest driving forces behind changes in mountain ecosystems in Western Europe. Tree and shrub encroachment lead to an increase in landscape matrix uniformity and habitat fragmentation. For some animal species, this represents an unusual case of habitat loss caused by secondary succession. The animal species associated with this agro‐pastoral habitat may suffer from decreased connectivity as a consequence. The Rock Partridge Alectoris graeca is a species endemic to European mountains that represents a model for investigating the impact of habitat loss. We compared the habitat suitability of the Apennine Rock Partridge prior to abandonment of traditional agro‐pastoral activities by aerial photography with the current landscape, in order to investigate the effect of secondary succession on the distribution and viability of the species. We assessed the historical distribution (c. 1900–1950) by quantifying anecdotal evidence from interviews, and the current distribution (2005) from survey data. We applied ecological niche factor analysis and connectivity approaches to evaluate change in habitat suitability over this time scale. Moreover, to quantify landscape connectivity, we evaluated the relative importance of each patch in the two periods. Results indicated that to maintain a viable population in the Apennines, the species requires an ensemble of ecological conditions considerably different from the current situation. We observed a drastic decrease in connectivity as a result of a reduction in numbers and size of high suitability patches. This is most probably the primary cause of the current decline of the Rock Partridge population in the Apennines.

Livestock Versus “Wild Beasts”: Contradictions In The Natural Patrimonialization Of The Pyrenees

ABSTRACT. The Pyrenees are becoming an environmental reservoir. The acute human depopulation experienced during the twentieth century and the progressive appropriation of large parts of the mountainous territory by the state in order to implement conservation policies have resulted in the return, via reintroduction or natural regeneration, of bears, wolves, beavers, river otters, marmots, mouflon, feral goats, and deer, among other species. This development, however, has not occurred without social and scientific controversy and leads to questions about territorialization and governmentality. Herders perceive wild animals as unregulated public property subsidized by the work of the local populace. Agriculturalists see their fields trespassed on a daily basis by animals they cannot kill because of their protected status. Ranchers, under extremely strict sanitation regulations, see their animals coming into contact with these unchecked wild populations. The work and living space of the mountain communities has fallen under the jurisdiction of external institutions and constituencies that value conservation and ecotourism above local subsistence.

Assessing range re-expansion and recolonization of human-impacted landscapes by threatened species: a case study of the otter (Lutra lutra) in Italy

Detecting and understanding recoveries of threatened species from past and recent presence/absence data is essential to improving conservation efforts. However, false positive trends may be reported because of false absences in past data, therefore appropriate testing is needed. We tested an expansion/recolonization of the otter (Lutra lutra) populations in Italy from a fragmented distribution outlined in the 1984-1985 period by using Monte Carlo simulations. Land-use changes, human depopulation and decrease in influence of anthropogenic features were investigated as potential drivers of recolonization by using GIS modeling. A survey of the entire Italian range of the otter, conducted in 2002-2004, recorded a 2.2-fold increase in the proportion of occupied 10-km squares and 49 local colonizations. The range size and proportion of urban land-use in the 1984-1985 distribution were smaller (P < 0.05) than those derived from simulated surveys based on 49 random false absences versus colonization events. The distribution range expanded southward and nearly reached the southern margins of the peninsula. Recolonization of moderately urbanized landscapes was not accompanied by human depopulation. According to partial logistic regressions, the pure effect of urban land proportion and industry proximity on otter occurrence probability declined by about 48%, suggesting a decreased impact on the stream habitat. Conversely, natural factors, increased in importance by about 116%. The absence of a significant northward expansion in the 20 year period suggests that northward habitat restoration should be planned to encourage further recolonization. On the other hand, potential urban threats in the newly occupied landscapes should be controlled.

Conservation and management issues of Prespa National Park

The present article describes the human activities in the area and their changes and trends, given that the contemporary nature conservation key issues are closely related to past and present socio-economic and cultural conditions, both within Prespa itself and outside of it. The liberation of Prespa, a remote and rather socially isolated borderline area, from Ottoman occupation took place in 1912–13. Recent events in its environmental history have been forest clearings and human depopulation in the Civil War (1944–49), irrigation system construction in the 1960s, its ‘discovery’ by ornithologists in the late 1960s, the high emigration rates of 1960–1980, its designation as a National Park in 1974, the destructive development works of 1984–86 after Greece’s entry to the EEC and the conversion to intensive bean cultivation in the mid 1980s.

THE GREY SEAL (HALICHOERUS GRY PUS FAB.) IN THE OUTER HEBRIDES IN OCTOBER 1961

There are two resident seals in the Outer Hebrides: the grey seal Halichoerus grypus on the exposed coasts, and the common seal Phoca vitulina on the sheltered ones. This paper describes the first exhaustive survey of the breeding status of the grey seal in the archipelago, conducted from land, sea and air in the autumn of 1961. Expeditions visited Shillay and North Rona, and aerial photographs were obtained of all the other islands except Stockay, Flodday and St. Kilda, for which information was obtained from other reliable sources.The data obtained concerned the number of pups present at one day in the breeding season. The birth‐rate curves for Shillay (1955) and North Rona (1959) were used with these data to give indices of the number of pups produced by each colony in 1961. Separate assessments were made for Stockay, Flodday and St. Kilda. Possible sources of error are discussed.The following are the indices for number of pups in 1961: North Rona, 2,600; Gasker, 1,094; Shillay, 150; Haskeir, 113; St. Kilda, 100; Causamul, 84; Coppay, 80; Stockay, 50; Kearstay, 20; Deasker, 17; Flodday, 50. For the Outer Hebrides as a whole the index is 4,378 or approx. 4,400.The history of the grey seal in the Outer Hebrides is reviewed. An increase in stocks is evident throughout the last century subsequent to the evacuation of North Rona in 1844. This is attributed to the gradual human depopulation of the area, with remote islands such as North Rona, St. Kilda and the Monachs becoming deserted by man and subsequently colonized by seals. The increase began well before 1914 when the Grey Seals Protection Act was passed, but this has since preserved stocks.