Human-caused Global Warming Research Articles

Decadal heatwave fluctuations in China caused by the Indian and Atlantic Oceans

Heatwaves have been more common in China in recent years, largely attributed to human-caused global warming. While ocean variability, notably El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), influences regional heatwave fluctuations in China, the impact of other oceanic variability remains unclear. Here we show that the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic Ocean (TSNAO) significantly modulate the decadal heatwave fluctuations in China. Among them, TIO has the most significant impact on northern China, while TSNAO has a greater impact on eastern China. TIO and TSNAO remotely influence heatwaves in China through abnormal sea surface temperatures (SSTs)-induced changes in atmospheric circulations involving westerlies and Rossby wave trains. Moreover, we demonstrated the physical processes responsible for heatwave fluctuations caused by TIO and TSNAO variability. The heatwave changes were determined jointly by vertical motion-related adiabatic and energy input-related diabatic temperature modifications. Our findings show that, in addition to ENSO, variability in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans is critical for understanding and predicting decadal heatwave changes in China.

Education for Environmental Justice: The Fordham Regional Environmental Sensor for Healthy Air

In urban environments, the nonuniform distribution of pollution contributes to disproportionate exposure to harmful pollutants in low-income and high-poverty neighborhoods. Particulate matter, especially of the class PM2.5, results from combustion processes which are a main driver for human-caused global warming and climate change. A resulting impact on socio-economically disadvantaged communities like the Bronx, NY is the high incidence of asthma, other respiratory diseases, and cardiovascular disease. This disparity is an environmental justice concern. Project FRESH Air is educating the community through STEM outreach with sensors for monitoring particulate matter, student projects, curriculum development, and wider community engagement in order to educate for environmental justice.

The Role of Phytoplanktons in the Environment and in Human Life, a Review

Phytoplankton is microscopic organisms that lie in watery environment and make their own food from sunlight through photosynthesis. Phytoplanktons are the core producers and major role play to the food web. They produce the similar amount of biomass of CO2 as all terrestrial plants combined. Several environmental factors, many of which are currently undergoing significant changes as a result of human-caused global warming, control phytoplankton productivity. Generally, ocean ecosystem is based on phytoplankton. It contributes about half of the world’s primary production, and diverse phytoplankton taxa play distinctive roles in the earth biogeochemical cycles, biological pump, ocean food chain, bioindicator, food industry and drugs. In the present paper an effort has been made to give broad review of literature on phytoplankton. This review clearly indicates that such research is necessary and emphasis the urgency of present work. The recent review highlights the value of phytoplankton in our lives and environment.

Philosophy without peer review?

TheoriaVolume 89, Issue 3 p. 235-238 EDITORIAL Philosophy without peer review? Sven Ove Hansson, Corresponding Author Sven Ove Hansson [email protected] Correspondence Sven Ove Hansson Email: [email protected]Search for more papers by this author Sven Ove Hansson, Corresponding Author Sven Ove Hansson [email protected] Correspondence Sven Ove Hansson Email: [email protected]Search for more papers by this author First published: 08 June 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/theo.12480Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL REFERENCES Arvan, M., Bright, L.K. & Heesen, R. (2022a) Jury theorems for peer review. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science http://doi.org/10.1086/719117. Arvan, M., Bright, L.K. & Heesen, R. (2022b) Why a crowd-sourced peer-review system would be good for philosophy (guest post). Daily Nous. February 7. https://dailynous.com/2022/02/07/why-a-crowd-sourced-peer-review-system-would-be-good-for-philosophy-guest-post/. Cook, J., Oreskes, N., Doran, P.T., Anderegg, W.R.L., Verheggen, B., Maibach, E.W. et al. (2016) Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming. Environmental Research Letters, 11, 048002. Dellsén, F. (2021) Consensus versus unanimity: which carries more weight? The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science http://doi.org/10.1086/718273. Heesen, R. & Bright, L.K. (2021) Is peer review a good idea? The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 72(3), 635– 663. Katzav, J. & Vaesen, K. (2017) Pluralism and peer review in philosophy. Philosophers' Imprint. 17(19), 1–20. Merton, R.K. (1942) A note on science and democracy. Journal of Legal and Political Sociology, 1, 115– 126. Rawls, J. (1971) A theory of justice. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Volume89, Issue3Special Issue: Thin ObjectsJune 2023Pages 235-238 ReferencesRelatedInformation

Developing a new testate amoeba hydrological transfer function for permafrost peatlands of NW Siberia

The vast areas of permafrost peatlands in the West Siberian Lowland (WSL) hold a significant amount of carbon currently at risk due to human-caused global warming. The rapid thawing of about 20–60% of the frozen soils of Western Siberia adds to the destruction of the region's signature palsa landscape and the development of thermokarst lakes or fens. Due to the complex interactions between climate and the ecosystem that shape its formation and degradation, permafrost reacts in different ways to environmental changes. Understanding recent changes in Western Siberia requires knowledge of previous environmental transitions, which needs to be enhanced further. This study, aimed to create a hydrological testate amoebae (TA) transfer function (TF) from the Khanymei area in the WSL to reconstruct past hydrological conditions in permafrost peatlands. In addition, this research intended to examine the influence of TA communities living in lichens (genus Cladonia) on the performance of TF by integrating these data with a calibration data set. In the summer of 2019, 76 modern samples of Sphagnum, Cladonia, and vascular plants from permafrost and non-permafrost sites were collected. Moreover, one peat core was extracted from the same area to reconstruct the depth to water table (DWT) quantitatively. The Shannon's diversity index, a quantitative measure of species richness, was calculated for each sample to estimate the TA species diversity in a community. Non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination was applied to the dataset to explore the similarities in TA communities between samples and determine whether the DWT controls the TA community structure. Results showed that the typical transition of TA species along the microtopographic (wet–dry) gradient is influenced by the presence of lichens on the surface of the peatland. Statistical analysis confirmed that TA communities in Cladonia are less affected by DWT. Therefore, the TF was constructed on the entire dataset (n = 75) and the dataset with Cladonia excluded (n = 55). Both these TFs showed satisfactory results. Even though the TF constructed on the entire dataset showed fewer predictive abilities, it provided a complete picture of the current vegetation conditions of Khanymei peatlands, where lichens are an essential element of the ecosystem. Therefore, it is assumed that TF with local environment traits may be more suitable for quantitative reconstruction, particularly in the newly explored permafrost area of Western Siberia.

Tinjauan Pustaka Sistematis: Penerapan Metode Naives Bayes untuk Klasifikasi dalam Dataset Cuaca

This study aims to determine the application of the naive bays method for classification in Weather datasets using the systematic literature review method. Weather forecasting research is an interesting object to study because weather is one of the things that influences everyday life so good accuracy in weather forecasts is very much needed. This study uses the systematic literature review method, which is a process of identifying, assessing, and interpreting facts and evidence from available research with the aim of finding answers to a particular research question. Climate change and weather are problems faced by almost the whole world which classify and predict. The problem is that there are many influencing variables, so it is quite difficult and unpredictable. Climate and weather change is human-caused global warming which makes it more difficult to solve weather problems. The results of this study can be used to measure the level of accuracy and MSE of the weather. the dataset serves as a metric for determining precipitation groups and it is concluded that the system can make predictions with an accuracy probability of up to 92% on new data. for the precision class to get a result of 100% where the system can predict the suitability of the class that is relevant to the results of the selected class.

Agricultural Economic Growth, Renewable Energy Supply and CO2 Emissions Nexus

International trade has created more economic growth opportunities in the agriculture sector. The agricultural sector remains key to the South African economy, with a vibrant international market becoming available as the country’s agriculture exports grow. However, the impacts of human-caused global warming have intensified as a result of increased greenhouse gas emissions, notably carbon dioxide (CO2), which negatively affects agricultural productivity and the economy. Considering the future energy resource demands for agricultural productivity due to the expected population growth and the emphasis on environmental remedial actions, the following question presents itself: what impact will a clean energy supply have on the agricultural economy and the environment, notwithstanding that agriculture, as a sector, also has a huge potential to contribute to renewable energy production? This study examines the effect of the nexus of South Africa’s renewable energy supply, CO2 emissions and trade openness on agricultural economic growth from 1990 to 2021. The nexus provides crucial insights into policies targeted at promoting renewable energy in the agricultural sector by isolating key areas of priority. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) test, a dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) test and a canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) econometric analysis were used to estimate the nexus. The results showed that growth in the agricultural sector leads to deterioration in the environment, while international trade benefits the sector. The scale of renewable energy supply slowed down the agricultural economy. The study makes a new contribution in providing empirical evidence for the links between renewable energy supply and agricultural GDP, which can drive policy on renewable energy use in the agricultural sector in South Africa. The paper recommends intentional renewable energy production research and development (R&D) finance focusing on renewable energy human development planning and investments in vocational programmes in higher learning institutes, agricultural renewable energy policy and the creation of green incentive schemes for feedstock producers, especially in rural areas in the agricultural sector.

Assessing ExxonMobil's global warming projections.

Climate projections by the fossil fuel industry have never been assessed. On the basis of company records, we quantitatively evaluated all available global warming projections documented by-and in many cases modeled by-Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp scientists between 1977 and 2003. We find that most of their projections accurately forecast warming that is consistent with subsequent observations. Their projections were also consistent with, and at least as skillful as, those of independent academic and government models. Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp also correctly rejected the prospect of a coming ice age, accurately predicted when human-caused global warming would first be detected, and reasonably estimated the "carbon budget" for holding warming below 2°C. On each of these points, however, the company's public statements about climate science contradicted its own scientific data.

Carbon footprint of heavy machinery in paving construction processes

Climate change is a current phenomenon and represents one of the most important environmental, social and economic threats to the planet and is defined as a significant and lasting change in local and global weather patterns caused by natural or human-caused global warming. The construction of works related to earthworks such as paving of streets, parking lots, roads, highways, dams, canals, among others, generate pollution because they use heavy machinery which is a major consumer of non-renewable fossil fuels that are transformed into emissions of Carbon Dioxide (CO2). The present work, takes as a case study the paving of a subdivision in the City of Obregon Sonora (Mexico) to determine the carbon footprint in Kg of CO2eq/m2 generated in the machinery, using the methodology of the carbon footprint from the quantities of work of the construction process, the selection and hourly performance of the appropriate equipment, the determination of the volumes of fuel used and the emission factor in Kg-CO2eq for the fuel used. The results obtained were 165,742.02 Kg-CO2eq in a surface of 128,049.59 m2 of paving, equivalent to 1.29 Kg-CO2eq/m2.

Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature

While controls over the Earth’s climate system have undergone rigorous hypothesis-testing since the 1800s, questions over the scientific consensus of the role of human activities in modern climate change continue to arise in public settings. We update previous efforts to quantify the scientific consensus on climate change by searching the recent literature for papers sceptical of anthropogenic-caused global warming. From a dataset of 88125 climate-related papers published since 2012, when this question was last addressed comprehensively, we examine a randomized subset of 3000 such publications. We also use a second sample-weighted approach that was specifically biased with keywords to help identify any sceptical peer-reviewed papers in the whole dataset. We identify four sceptical papers out of the sub-set of 3000, as evidenced by abstracts that were rated as implicitly or explicitly sceptical of human-caused global warming. In our sample utilizing pre-identified sceptical keywords we found 28 papers that were implicitly or explicitly sceptical. We conclude with high statistical confidence that the scientific consensus on human-caused contemporary climate change—expressed as a proportion of the total publications—exceeds 99% in the peer reviewed scientific literature.

Consensus revisited: quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later

The scientific consensus on human-caused global warming has been a topic of intense interest in recent decades. This is in part due to the important role of public perception of expert consensus, which has downstream impacts on public opinion and support for mitigation policies. Numerous studies, using diverse methodologies and measures of climate expertise, have quantified the scientific consensus, finding between 90% and 100% agreement on human-caused global warming with multiple studies converging on 97% agreement. This study revisits the consensus among geoscientists ten years after an initial survey of experts, while exploring different ways to define expertise and the level of agreement among these groups. We sent 10 929 invitations to participate in our survey to a verified email list of geosciences faculty at reporting academic and research institutions and received 2780 responses. In addition to analyzing the raw survey results, we independently quantify how many publications self-identified climate experts published in the field of climate change research and compare that to their survey response on questions about climate change. As well as a binary approach classifying someone as ‘expert’ or ‘non-expert’, we also look at expertise as a scale. We find that agreement on anthropogenic global warming is high (91% to 100%) and generally increases with expertise. Out of a group of 153 independently confirmed climate experts, 98.7% of those scientists indicated that the Earth is getting warmer mostly because of human activity such as burning fossil fuels. Among those with the highest level of expertise (independently confirmed climate experts who each published 20+ peer reviewed papers on climate change between 2015 and 2019) there was 100% agreement that the Earth is warming mostly because of human activity.

Satellite Remote Sensing and the Marine Biodiversity Observation Network: Current Science and Future Steps

Coastal ecosystems are rapidly changing due to human-caused global warming, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, sea ice loss, and acidification that in turn alter the productivity and composition of marine biological communities. In addition, regional pressures associated with growing human populations and economies result in changes in infrastructure, land use, and other development; greater extraction of fisheries and other natural resources; alteration of benthic seascapes; increased pollution; and eutrophication. Understanding biodiversity is fundamental to assessing and managing human activities that sustain ecosystem health and services and mitigate humankind’s indiscretions. Remote-sensing observations provide rapid and synoptic data for assessing biophysical interactions at multiple spatial and temporal scales and thus are useful for monitoring biodiversity in critical coastal zones. However, many challenges remain because of complex bio-optical signals, poor signal retrieval, and suboptimal algorithms. Here, we highlight four approaches in remote sensing that complement the Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON). MBON observations help quantify plankton functional types, foundation species, and unique species habitat relationships, as well as inform species distribution models. In concert with in situ observations across multiple platforms, these efforts contribute to monitoring biodiversity changes in complex coastal regions by providing oceanographic context, contributing to algorithm and indicator development, and creating linkages between long-term ecological studies, the next generations of satellite sensors, and marine ecosystem management.

Multi-Frequency Analysis of Simulated versus Observed Variability in Tropospheric Temperature

AbstractStudies seeking to identify a human-caused global warming signal generally rely on climate model estimates of the “noise” of intrinsic natural variability. Assessing the reliability of these noise estimates is of critical importance. We evaluate here the statistical significance of differences between climate model and observational natural variability spectra for global-mean mid- to upper-tropospheric temperature (TMT). We use TMT information from satellites and large multimodel ensembles of forced and unforced simulations. Our main goal is to explore the sensitivity of model-versus-data spectral comparisons to a wide range of subjective decisions. These include the choice of satellite and climate model TMT datasets, the method for separating signal and noise, the frequency range considered, and the statistical model used to represent observed natural variability. Of particular interest is the amplitude of the interdecadal noise against which an anthropogenic tropospheric warming signal must be detected. We find that on time scales of 5–20 years, observed TMT variability is (on average) overestimated by the last two generations of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This result is relatively insensitive to different plausible analyst choices, enhancing confidence in previous claims of detectable anthropogenic warming of the troposphere and indicating that these claims may be conservative. A further key finding is that two commonly used statistical models of short-term and long-term memory have deficiencies in their ability to capture the complex shape of observed TMT spectra.

How we know the Earth is warming and humans are responsible

ABSTRACTOnly two-thirds of Americans are confident in the knowledge that global warming is happening, and a bare majority understand that it’s mostly caused by human activities. One-third of Americans continue to believe that global warming is mostly natural. In reality, the scientific evidence demonstrating that global warming is happening and human-caused is overwhelming, which is why there is a 90 to 100 percent expert consensus on human-caused global warming.

How Much Human-Caused Global Warming Should We Expect with Business-As-Usual (BAU) Climate Policies? A Semi-Empirical Assessment

In order to assess the merits of national climate change mitigation policies, it is important to have a reasonable benchmark for how much human-caused global warming would occur over the coming century with “Business-As-Usual” (BAU) conditions. However, currently, policymakers are limited to making assessments by comparing the Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate change under various different “scenarios”, none of which are explicitly defined as BAU. Moreover, all of these estimates are ab initio computer model projections, and policymakers do not currently have equivalent empirically derived estimates for comparison. Therefore, estimates of the total future human-caused global warming from the three main greenhouse gases of concern (CO2, CH4, and N2O) up to 2100 are here derived for BAU conditions. A semi-empirical approach is used that allows direct comparisons between GCM-based estimates and empirically derived estimates. If the climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases implies a Transient Climate Response (TCR) of ≥ 2.5 °C or an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of ≥ 5.0 °C then the 2015 Paris Agreement’s target of keeping human-caused global warming below 2.0 °C will have been broken by the middle of the century under BAU. However, for a TCR < 1.5 °C or ECS < 2.0 °C, the target would not be broken under BAU until the 22nd century or later. Therefore, the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “likely” range estimates for TCR of 1.0 to 2.5 °C and ECS of 1.5 to 4.5 °C have not yet established if human-caused global warming is a 21st century problem.

Solving the climate crisis: lessons from ozone depletion and COVID-19

Abstract The ‘climate crisis’ describes human-caused global warming and climate change and its consequences. It conveys the sense of urgency surrounding humanity's failure to take sufficient action to slow down, stop and reverse global warming. The leading direct cause of the climate crisis is carbon dioxide (CO2) released as a by-product of burning fossil fuels,i which supply ~87% of the world's energy. The second most important cause of the climate crisis is deforestation to create more land for crops and livestock. The solutions have been stated as simply ‘leave the fossil carbon in the ground’ and ‘end deforestation’. Rather than address fossil fuel supplies, climate policies focus almost exclusively on the demand side, blaming fossil fuel users for greenhouse gas emissions. The fundamental reason that we are not solving the climate crisis is not a lack of green energy solutions. It is that governments continue with energy strategies that prioritize fossil fuels. These entrenched energy policies subsidize the discovery, extraction, transport and sale of fossil fuels, with the aim of ensuring a cheap, plentiful, steady supply of fossil energy into the future. This paper compares the climate crisis to two other environmental crises: ozone depletion and the COVID-19 pandemic. Halting and reversing damage to the ozone layer is one of humanity's greatest environmental success stories. The world's response to COVID-19 demonstrates that it is possible for governments to take decisive action to avert an imminent crisis. The approach to solving both of these crises was the same: (1) identify the precise cause of the problem through expert scientific advice; (2) with support by the public, pass legislation focused on the cause of the problem; and (3) employ a robust feedback mechanism to assess progress and adjust the approach. This is not yet being done to solve the climate crisis, but working within the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement framework, it could be. Every nation can contribute to solving the climate crisis by: (1) changing their energy strategy to green energy sources instead of fossil fuels; and (2) critically reviewing every law, policy and trade agreement (including transport, food production, food sources and land use) that affects the climate crisis.

Keep quiet on climate: Assessing public response to seven renewable energy frames in the Western United States

Support for renewable energy is often solicited by leveraging concern about environmental problems such as climate change. However, the environment – and especially climate change – is hyper-polarized amongst the American public, and non-environmental justifications for renewable energy may resonate more broadly. Using a 2016 mail survey of individuals living in five states in the Rocky Mountain region of the U.S., we examine predictors of public approval of renewable energy usage, approval of a 20% renewable portfolio standard policy, and agreement with seven frames for renewable energy, of which four referenced the environment and three did not. We build upon previous research by analyzing geographic variation in frame agreement and by testing a religious environmental stewardship and resource-conservation frame. Results indicate high approval renewable energy but mixed support for the policy measure. Respondents on average agreed with all seven renewable energy frames, with energy security and energy diversification receiving the most support. Of the four environmental frames, air pollution and resource conservation had the most support, and the religion and climate frames had the least. We note variation by state, particularly on support for the policy measure. Political ideology and belief in human-caused global warming were consistent predictors, though gender, residence in a metro county, neoliberal ideology, and state of residence were also important. Overall, our results echo other research indicating that non-climate-based frames for renewable energy are likely to garner broader public support, but we suggest that the significance of this finding is particularly important in certain political and geographical contexts.

Elite Influence on Climate Change Skepticism: Evidence from Close Gubernatorial Elections

Many theorize that public opinion follows political elite on climate change skepticism, yet evidence of a causal link is lacking. I use a regression discontinuity design to establish the impact of the political party of a governor on constituents’ global warming beliefs. I find that, relative to the election of a Democratic governor, the election of a Republican governor significantly decreases the probability of a Republican constituent believing in global warming by approximately 11–15 percentage points; there is no significant impact on Democratic constituents. I also find a negative effect of a Republican governor on belief in human-caused global warming that does not differ by constituent partisan affiliation. These results provide one explanation for the increased political polarization in global warming beliefs despite the scientific consensus. Belief formation often plays an important role in political economy models, so these findings also have implications for implementing climate change policy.

Political Parties and Climate Change Skepticism: Evidence from Close Gubernatorial Elections

Many theorize that public opinion follows political elite on climate change skepticism, yet evidence of a causal link is lacking. I use a regression discontinuity design to establish the impact of the political party of a governor on constituents’ global warming beliefs. I find that, relative to the election of a Democratic governor, the election of a Republican governor significantly decreases the probability of a Republican constituent believing in global warming by approximately 11 to 15 percentage points; there is no significant impact on Democratic constituents. I also find a negative effect of a Republican governor on belief in human-caused global warming that does not differ by constituent partisan affiliation. These results provide one explanation for the increased political polarization in global warming beliefs despite the scientific consensus. Belief formation often plays an important role in political economy models, so these findings also have implications for implementing climate change policy.

Cost of Carbon Capture: Can Young People Bear the Burden?

Near-universal recognition of the threat of human-caused global warming, tragically, has not been accompanied by comprehensive quantitative assessment of technological options for mitigating climate change. In this issue of Joule, David W. Keith and co-authors describe a process of capturing CO2 from the air and provide a much-needed empirical cost estimate based on results from a pilot plant. Estimated costs, exceeding $100 per ton of CO2 without including the cost of CO2 storage, are lower than some prior estimates, yet are so high as to strongly support the need for rapid reduction of fossil fuel emissions.