Human Brucellosis In Mainland China Research Articles

Spatiotemporal dynamics and influencing factors of human brucellosis in Mainland China from 2005–2021

BackgroundBrucellosis poses a significant public health concern. This study explores the spatial and temporal dynamic evolution of human brucellosis in China and analyses the spatial heterogeneity of the influencing factors related to the incidence of human brucellosis at the provincial level.MethodsThe Join-point model, centre of gravity migration model and spatial autocorrelation analysis were employed to evaluate potential changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of human brucellosis in mainland China from 2005 to 2021. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), and Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) models were constructed to analyze the spatial and temporal correlation between the incidence rate of human brucellosis and meteorological and social factors.ResultsFrom 2005 to 2021, human brucellosis in China showed a consistent upward trend. The incidence rate rose more rapidly in South, Central, and Southwest China, leading to a shift in the center of gravity from the North to the Southwest, as illustrated in the migration trajectory diagram. Strong spatial aggregation was observed. The MGWR model outperformed others. Spatio-temporal plots indicated that lower mean annual temperatures and increased beef, mutton, and milk production significantly correlated with higher brucellosis incidence. Cities like Guangxi and Guangdong were more affected by low temperatures, while Xinjiang and Tibet were influenced more by beef and milk production. Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang were more affected by mutton production. Importantly, an increase in regional GDP and health expenditure exerted a notable protective effect against human brucellosis incidence.ConclusionsHuman brucellosis remains a pervasive challenge. Meteorological and social factors significantly influence its incidence in a spatiotemporally specific manner. Tailored prevention strategies should be region-specific, providing valuable insights for effective brucellosis control measures.

The research on TBATS and ELM models for prediction of human brucellosis cases in mainland China: a time series study

BackgroundHuman brucellosis is a serious public health concern in China. The objective of this study is to develop a suitable model for forecasting human brucellosis cases in mainland China.MethodsData on monthly human brucellosis cases from January 2012 to December 2021 in 31 provinces and municipalities in mainland China were obtained from the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China website. The TBATS and ELM models were constructed. The MAE, MSE, MAPE, and RMSE were calculated to evaluate the prediction performance of the two models.ResultsThe optimal TBATS model was TBATS (1, {0,0}, -, {< 12,4 >}) and the lowest AIC value was 1854.703. In the optimal TBATS model, {0,0} represents the ARIMA (0,0) model, {< 12,4 >} are the parameters of the seasonal periods and the corresponding number of Fourier terms, respectively, and the parameters of the Box-Cox transformation ω are 1. The optimal ELM model hidden layer number was 33 and the R-squared value was 0.89. The ELM model provided lower values of MAE, MSE, MAPE, and RMSE for both the fitting and forecasting performance.ConclusionsThe results suggest that the forecasting performance of ELM model outperforms the TBATS model in predicting human brucellosis between January 2012 and December 2021 in mainland China. Forecasts of the ELM model can help provide early warnings and more effective prevention and control measures for human brucellosis in mainland China.

Comparison of ARIMA model and XGBoost model for prediction of human brucellosis in mainland China: a time-series study

ObjectivesHuman brucellosis is a public health problem endangering health and property in China. Predicting the trend and the seasonality of human brucellosis is of great significance for its prevention. In...

The spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in mainland China from 2007-2016

BackgroundDespite the considerable efforts made to address the issue of brucellosis worldwide, its prevalence in dairy products continues to be difficult to estimate and represents a key public health issue around the world today. The aim of the present study was to better understand the epidemiology of this disease in mainland China. We set out to investigate the yearly spatial distribution and possible hotspots of the disease.MethodsHuman brucellosis data from mainland China between 2007 and 2016 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. A geographic information system ArcGIS10.3 (ESRI, Redlands) was used to identify potential changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of human brucellosis in mainland China during the study period. These distributions were evaluated using three-dimensional trend analysis and spatial autocorrelation analyse. A gravity-center was used to analyse the migration track of human brucellosis.ResultsA total of 399,578 cases of human brucellosis were reported during the 10-year study period. The monthly incidence of brucellosis in China demonstrates clear seasonality. Spring and summer are the peak seasons, while May is the peak month for brucellosis. Three-dimensional trend analysis suggests that brucellosis is on the rise from south to north, and that the epidemic situation in northern China is more severe. Between 2007 and 2016, the overall migration distance of the brucellosis incidence gravity-center was 906.43 km, and the direction was southwest. However, the overall gravity center of brucellosis was still in the northern part of China. In the global autocorrelation analysis, brucellosis in China demonstrated a non-random distribution between 2013 and 2014, with spatial autocorrelation (Z > 1.96, P < 0.05) and a clustering trend, while no clustering trend was found from 2007 to 2012 or from 2015 to 2016. In the local autocorrelation analysis, a Low-Low cluster phenomenon was found in the south of China in 2013 and 2014.ConclusionHuman brucellosis remains a widespread challenge, particularly in northern China. The hotspots highlight potential high-risk areas which may require special plans and resources for monitoring and controlling the disease.

An estimate of the incidence and quantitative risk assessment of human brucellosis in mainland China.

Two epidemiological models were applied to simulate whether animals with latent infections were contagious and calculate the outcomes of people that contracting brucellosis by all possible transmission routes under control measures implemented by the Chinese government. The health and economic burden of brucellosis overall presented an increasing trend from 2004 to 2017. Scenarios from epidemiological models showed that a larger scale of vaccine coverage would contribute to fewer infections in livestock and humans. S2 vaccine, the disinfection of the environment and the protection of the susceptible animals and humans could effectively reverse the trend of increasing brucellosis and reduce the incidence rates of brucellosis in humans to curb the epidemic of brucellosis in China.

Spatial-temporal distribution of human brucellosis in mainland China from 2004 to 2017 and an analysis of social and environmental factors

BackgroundThis study aimed to describe the changing distribution of human brucellosis between 2004 and 2017 in mainland China and seek scientific evidence of the relationship between socio-economic, environmental, and ecological factors and human brucellosis incidence.MethodsThe annual numbers of brucellosis cases and incidence rates from 31 provinces in mainland China between 2004 and 2017 were obtained from the Data-Center for China Public Health Science. The number of monthly brucellosis cases in 2018 was obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The electronic map of the People’s Republic of China was downloaded from the National Earth System Science Data Sharing Platform. Human population density, gross domestic product (GDP), and an inventory of cattle and sheep at the end of each year from 2004 to 2017 were obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Annual rainfall data from 31 provinces in the People’s Republic of China from 2004 to 2017 were collected from the China Meteorological Data Service Center. The risk distribution and changing trends of human brucellosis were mapped with ArcGIS. A cluster analysis was employed to identify geographical areas and periods with statistically significant incidence rates. Multivariate linear regression was used to determine possible factors that were significantly correlated with the presence of human brucellosis cases.ResultsHuman brucellosis cases have spread throughout the whole country. Human brucellosis cases occurred mostly from March to August and were concentrated from April to July. The inventory of sheep, GDP, and climate were significantly correlated with the presence of brucellosis cases in mainland China.ConclusionsThe geographical expansion of human brucellosis in mainland China was observed, so did the high-incidence clusters between 2004 and 2017. Most of the cases were reported during the early spring to early summer (February–August). Results from the multivariate linear regression suggested that the inventory of sheep, GDP, and climate were significantly associated with the incidence of human brucellosis in mainland China.

An exploratory study of factors associated with human brucellosis in mainland China based on time-series-cross-section data from 2005 to 2016.

ObjectiveMany studies focused on reasons behind the increasing incidence and the spread of human brucellosis in mainland China, yet most of them lacked comprehensive consideration with quantitative evidence. Hence, this study aimed to further investigate the epidemic mechanism and associated factors of human brucellosis so as to provide thoughts for future countermeasures in China and the rest of the world.MethodsData of human brucellosis incidence and some associated factors in economy, animal husbandry, transportation as well as health and hygiene were collected at provincial level from 2005–2016. Time series plots were first used to visualize the annual incidence and annual rate of change of human brucellosis for each province, then cluster analysis categorized all the 31 provinces of mainland China based on their incidence time series during the study period. In addition, according to the characteristics of data, the dynamic panel data model in combination with supervised principal component analysis was proposed to explore effects of associated factors on human brucellosis.Results1. The incidence rate of human brucellosis in mainland China increased three-fold from 1.41 per 100,000 people in 2005 to 4.22 per 100,000 people in 2014, though it went down a little in 2015 and 2016. Incidence rates in the north have always been higher than those in the south, but the latter also experienced an upward trend especially between 2012 and 2016. 2. The 31 provinces of mainland China were categorized into three clusters, and each cluster had its own characteristics of incidence time series. 3. The impact of health and hygiene situations on the prevention and control work of human brucellosis was still very limited and trivial (regression coefficient = -0.02). Therefore, it was plausible to presume that improving the personal average number of medical institutes and the proportion of rural medical expenditure might be helpful in preventing and controlling human brucellosis.ConclusionsThe epidemic status of human brucellosis has changed in both spatial and temporal dimensions in recent years in mainland China. Apart from traditional control measures, more attention should be paid to the improvement of medical healthcare especially in rural areas in the hope of enhancing the control effect.

Time series analysis of human brucellosis in mainland China by using Elman and Jordan recurrent neural networks

BackgroundEstablishing epidemiological models and conducting predictions seems to be useful for the prevention and control of human brucellosis. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models can capture the long-term trends and the periodic variations in time series. However, these models cannot handle the nonlinear trends correctly. Recurrent neural networks can address problems that involve nonlinear time series data. In this study, we intended to build prediction models for human brucellosis in mainland China with Elman and Jordan neural networks. The fitting and forecasting accuracy of the neural networks were compared with a traditional seasonal ARIMA model.MethodsThe reported human brucellosis cases were obtained from the website of the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China. The human brucellosis cases from January 2004 to December 2017 were assembled as monthly counts. The training set observed from January 2004 to December 2016 was used to build the seasonal ARIMA model, Elman and Jordan neural networks. The test set from January 2017 to December 2017 was used to test the forecast results. The root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to assess the fitting and forecasting accuracy of the three models.ResultsThere were 52,868 cases of human brucellosis in Mainland China from January 2004 to December 2017. We observed a long-term upward trend and seasonal variance in the original time series. In the training set, the RMSE and MAE of Elman and Jordan neural networks were lower than those in the ARIMA model, whereas the MAPE of Elman and Jordan neural networks was slightly higher than that in the ARIMA model. In the test set, the RMSE, MAE and MAPE of Elman and Jordan neural networks were far lower than those in the ARIMA model.ConclusionsThe Elman and Jordan recurrent neural networks achieved much higher forecasting accuracy. These models are more suitable for forecasting nonlinear time series data, such as human brucellosis than the traditional ARIMA model.

Spatial analysis on human brucellosis incidence in mainland China: 2004–2010

ObjectivesChina has experienced a sharply increasing rate of human brucellosis in recent years. Effective spatial monitoring of human brucellosis incidence is very important for successful implementation of control and prevention...