An estimate of the incidence and quantitative risk assessment of human brucellosis in mainland China.

Abstract

Two epidemiological models were applied to simulate whether animals with latent infections were contagious and calculate the outcomes of people that contracting brucellosis by all possible transmission routes under control measures implemented by the Chinese government. The health and economic burden of brucellosis overall presented an increasing trend from 2004 to 2017. Scenarios from epidemiological models showed that a larger scale of vaccine coverage would contribute to fewer infections in livestock and humans. S2 vaccine, the disinfection of the environment and the protection of the susceptible animals and humans could effectively reverse the trend of increasing brucellosis and reduce the incidence rates of brucellosis in humans to curb the epidemic of brucellosis in China.