Household Socioeconomic Position Research Articles

Social inequalities in pregnancy metabolic profile: findings from the multi-ethnic Born in Bradford cohort study.

Lower socioeconomic position (SEP) associates with adverse pregnancy and perinatal outcomes and with less favourable metabolic profile in nonpregnant adults. Socioeconomic differences in pregnancy metabolic profile are unknown. We investigated association between a composite measure of SEP and pregnancy metabolic profile in White European (WE) and South Asian (SA) women. We included 3,905 WE and 4,404 SA pregnant women from a population-based UK cohort. Latent class analysis was applied to nineteen individual, household, and area-based SEP indicators (collected by questionnaires or linkage to residential address) to derive a composite SEP latent variable. Targeted nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy was used to determine 148 metabolic traits from mid-pregnancy serum samples. Associations between SEP and metabolic traits were examined using linear regressions adjusted for gestational age and weighted by latent class probabilities. Five SEP sub-groups were identified and labelled 'Highest SEP' (48% WE and 52% SA), 'High-Medium SEP' (77% and 23%), 'Medium SEP' (56% and 44%) 'Low-Medium SEP' (21% and 79%), and 'Lowest SEP' (52% and 48%). Lower SEP was associated with more adverse levels of 113 metabolic traits, including lower high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and higher triglycerides and very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) traits. For example, mean standardized difference (95%CI) in concentration of small VLDL particles (vs. Highest SEP) was 0.12 standard deviation (SD) units (0.05 to 0.20) for 'Medium SEP' and 0.25SD (0.18 to 0.32) for 'Lowest SEP'. There was statistical evidence of ethnic differences in associations of SEP with 31 traits, primarily characterised by stronger associations in WE women e.g., mean difference in HDL cholesterol in WE and SA women respectively (vs. Highest-SEP) was -0.30SD (-0.41 to -0.20) and -0.16SD (-0.27 to -0.05) for 'Medium SEP', and -0.62SD (-0.72 to -0.52) and -0.29SD (-0.40 to -0.20) for 'Lowest SEP'. We found widespread socioeconomic differences in metabolic traits in pregnant WE and SA women residing in the UK. Further research is needed to understand whether the socioeconomic differences we observe here reflect pre-conception differences or differences in the metabolic pregnancy response. If replicated, it would be important to explore if these differences contribute to socioeconomic differences in pregnancy outcomes.

Association Between Trajectory of Socioeconomic Position and Regional Brain Volumes Related to Dementia: Results From the NEIGE Study.

Low socioeconomic position (SEP) has been linked to an increased risk of dementia. However, little is known about the association between SEP trajectory and regional brain volumes related to dementia. A random sample of community-dwelling older adults (n = 428, age = 73.1±5.5) living in Tokamachi City (Niigata Prefecture, Japan) without medical histories of dementia, Parkinson's disease, and depression who underwent automated assessment of brain volumes on magnetic resonance imaging and responded to a self-administered questionnaire survey in 2017. We measured SEP in childhood (household SEP at age 15), young adulthood (education), mid-adulthood (the longest occupation), and late adulthood (current wealth), and further performed group-based trajectory analysis to identify lifetime trajectory patterns on SEP. Multivariate regression models were employed to investigate the association between SEP trajectories and 4 regional brain volumes related to the development of Alzheimer's disease (ie, entorhinal cortex, hippocampus, amygdala, and the parahippocampus), the most common type of dementia. We found 3 distinct SEP trajectories (stable middle class [68%], downward [23%], and upward [9%]). Compared to those who experienced stable middle class, older adults who experienced the upward SEP mobility had significantly larger hippocampus (β: 213.2, 95% confidence interval: 14.7, 411.8). On the other hand, older adults who experienced downward SEP mobility showed no significant differences in any of the 4 brain structural volumes. Our findings indicate that upward life-course SEP mobility is associated with larger volumes of hippocampus in old age. SEP trajectory may offer us a useful lens to enhance our understanding of the etiology of dementia.

Influences of women empowerment indices on demand for childcare services: Evidence from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys.

This study examined the effect of various dimensions of women's empowerment on childcare use in Nigeria, utilizing information from five rounds of the National Demographic and Health Surveys. The analysis made use of both binary and multinomial logistic regression. The findings show that women who share household choices with their spouses were more likely to undertake postnatal care for their babies in either private or public hospitals compared to self-medication/others/traditional. Also, women who owned houses and those who participate in economic activities are significantly more inclined to use postnatal services for babies in health facilities. By implication, women empowerment is a significant factor to consider in improving childcare services in Nigeria. This suggests that in order to improve the health of children, women's inputs in household decision-making should be accommodated, while efforts should be made to enhance household socioeconomic position, and support mothers to have formal education. The findings also suggest that promoting women's empowerment can play a crucial role in increasing the demand for formal childcare services.

Effect of residential relocation on environmental exposures in European cohorts: An exposome-wide approach

Residential relocation is increasingly used as a natural experiment in epidemiological studies to assess the health impact of changes in environmental exposures. Since the likelihood of relocation can be influenced by individual characteristics that also influence health, studies may be biased if the predictors of relocation are not appropriately accounted for. Using data from Swedish and Dutch adults (SDPP, AMIGO), and birth cohorts (BAMSE, PIAMA), we investigated factors associated with relocation and changes in multiple environmental exposures across life stages.We used logistic regression to identify baseline predictors of moving, including sociodemographic and household characteristics, health behaviors and health. We identified exposure clusters reflecting three domains of the urban exposome (air pollution, grey surface, and socioeconomic deprivation) and conducted multinomial logistic regression to identify predictors of exposome trajectories among movers.On average, 7 % of the participants relocated each year. Before relocating, movers were consistently exposed to higher levels of air pollution than non-movers. Predictors of moving differed between the adult and birth cohorts, highlighting the importance of life stages. In the adult cohorts, moving was associated with younger age, smoking, and lower education and was independent of cardio-respiratory health indicators (hypertension, BMI, asthma, COPD). Contrary to adult cohorts, higher parental education and household socioeconomic position were associated with a higher probability of relocation in birth cohorts, alongside being the first child and living in a multi-unit dwelling. Among movers in all cohorts, those with a higher socioeconomic position at baseline were more likely to move towards healthier levels of the urban exposome.We provide new insights into predictors of relocation and subsequent changes in multiple aspects of the urban exposome in four cohorts covering different life stages in Sweden and the Netherlands. These results inform strategies to limit bias due to residential self-selection in epidemiological studies using relocation as a natural experiment.

Familial aggregation of the aging process: biological age measured in young adult offspring as a predictor of parental mortality.

Measures of biological age (BA) integrate information across organ systems to quantify "biological aging," i.e., inter-individual differences in aging-related health decline. While longevity and lifespan aggregate in families, reflecting transmission of genes and environments across generations, little is known about intergenerational continuity of biological aging or the extent to which this continuity may be modified by environmental factors. Using data from the Jerusalem Perinatal Study (JPS), we tested if differences in offspring BA were related to mortality in their parents. We measured BA using biomarker data collected from 1473 offspring during clinical exams in 2007-2009, at age 32 ± 1.1. Parental mortality was obtained from population registry data for the years 2004-2016. We fitted parametric survival models to investigate the associations between offspring BA and parental all-cause and cause-specific mortality. We explored potential differences in these relationships by socioeconomic position (SEP) and offspring sex. Participants' BAs widely varied (SD = 6.95). Among those measured to be biologically older, parents had increased all-cause mortality (HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.13), diabetes mortality (HR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.30), and cancer mortality (HR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.13). The association with all-cause mortality was stronger for families with low compared with high SEP (Pinteraction = 0.04) and for daughters as compared to sons (Pinteraction < 0.001). Using a clinical-biomarker-based BA estimate, observable by young adulthood prior to the onset of aging-related diseases, we demonstrate intergenerational continuity of the aging process. Furthermore, variation in this familial aggregation according to household socioeconomic position (SEP) at offspring birth and between families of sons and daughters proposes that the environment alters individuals' aging trajectory set by their parents.

Socioeconomic risk markers of arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) infections: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis

IntroductionArthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are of notable public health importance worldwide, owing to their potential to cause explosive outbreaks and induce debilitating and potentially life-threatening disease manifestations. This systematic review and...

The socioeconomic landscape of the exposome during pregnancy

BackgroundWhile socioeconomic position (SEP) is consistently related to pregnancy and birth outcome disparities, relevant biological mechanisms are manifold, thus necessitating more comprehensive characterization of SEP-exposome associations during pregnancy. ObjectivesWe implemented an exposomic approach to systematically characterize the socioeconomic landscape of prenatal exposures in a setting where social segregation was less distinct in a hypotheses-generating manner. MethodsWe described the correlation structure of 134 prenatal exogenous and endogenous sources (e.g., micronutrients, hormones, immunomodulatory metabolites, environmental pollutants) collected in a diverse, population-representative, urban, high-income longitudinal mother-offspring cohort (N = 1341; 2009–2011). We examined the associations between maternal, paternal, household, and areal level SEP indicators and 134 exposures using multiple regressions adjusted for precision variables, as well as potential effect measure modification by ethnicity and nativity. Finally, we generated summary SEP indices using Multiple Correspondence Analysis to further explore possible curved relationships. ResultsIndividual and household SEP were associated with anthropometric/adiposity measures, folate, omega-3 fatty acids, insulin-like growth factor-II, fasting glucose, and neopterin, an inflammatory marker. We observed paternal education was more strongly and consistently related to maternal exposures than maternal education. This was most apparent amongst couples discordant on education. Analyses revealed additional non-linear associations between areal composite SEP and particulate matter. Environmental contaminants (e.g., per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) and micronutrients (e.g., folate and copper) showed opposing associations by ethnicity and nativity, respectively. DiscussionSEP-exposome relationships are complex, non-linear, and context specific. Our findings reinforce the potential role of paternal contributions and context-specific modifiers of associations, such as between ethnicity and maternal diet-related exposures. Despite weak presumed areal clustering of individual exposures in our context, our approach reinforces subtle non-linearities in areal-level exposures.

Social determinants of the changing tuberculosis prevalence in Việt Nam: Analysis of population-level cross-sectional studies.

An ecological relationship between economic development and reduction in tuberculosis prevalence has been observed. Between 2007 and 2017, Việt Nam experienced rapid economic development with equitable distribution of resources and a 37% reduction in tuberculosis prevalence. Analysing consecutive prevalence surveys, we examined how the reduction in tuberculosis (and subclinical tuberculosis) prevalence was concentrated between socioeconomic groups. We combined data from 2 nationally representative Việt Nam tuberculosis prevalence surveys with provincial-level measures of poverty. Data from 94,156 (2007) and 61,763 (2017) individuals were included. Of people with microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis, 21.6% (47/218) in 2007 and 29.0% (36/124) in 2017 had subclinical disease. We constructed an asset index using principal component analysis of consumption data. An illness concentration index was estimated to measure socioeconomic position inequality in tuberculosis prevalence. The illness concentration index changed from -0.10 (95% CI -0.08, -0.16; p = 0.003) in 2007 to 0.07 (95% CI 0.06, 0.18; p = 0.158) in 2017, indicating that tuberculosis was concentrated among the poorest households in 2007, with a shift towards more equal distribution between rich and poor households in 2017. This finding was similar for subclinical tuberculosis. We fitted multilevel models to investigate relationships between change in tuberculosis prevalence, individual risks, household socioeconomic position, and neighbourhood poverty. Controlling for provincial poverty level reduced the difference in prevalence, suggesting that changes in neighbourhood poverty contribute to the explanation of change in tuberculosis prevalence. A limitation of our study is that while tuberculosis prevalence surveys are valuable for understanding socioeconomic differences in tuberculosis prevalence in countries, given that tuberculosis is a relatively rare disease in the population studied, there is limited power to explore socioeconomic drivers. However, combining repeated cross-sectional surveys with provincial deprivation estimates during a period of remarkable economic growth provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the relationship between tuberculosis and economic development in Việt Nam. We found that with equitable economic growth and a reduction in tuberculosis burden, tuberculosis became less concentrated among the poor in Việt Nam.

Socioeconomic Position Mediates the Relationship between Family Social Benefits and Adolescent Life Satisfaction in 25 countries.

The aims of this study were to assess the mediating role of household socioeconomic position (SEP) in the associations between the country-level factors: family social benefits, and public income support to single parent households (SPH), with the individual-level factor adolescent life satisfaction. Our sample consisted of adolescent (11, 13, and 15 years old) participants in the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study (2013/2014) across Canada and 24 countries in Europe. We used World Bank data on country wealth from OECD data on social benefits for families and public income support to SPH. Multilevel linear regressions assessed mediated (indirect) associations of these country-level predictors, through SEP, with life satisfaction. Family social benefits ranged between 1.1% and 3.7% of country wealth. The direct association showed that family social benefits were associated with lower adolescent life satisfaction (β = -0.244, 95% Confidence Intervals [C.I.] = -0.306, -0.182, p < 0.0001) among all adolescents and for adolescents in SPH (β = -0.118, 95% C.I. = -0.161, -0.074, p < 0.0001). However, the mediated (indirect) association showed that family social benefits were associated with higher life satisfaction which is partially mediated by SEP (β = 0.087, 95% C.I. = 0.065, 0.109, p < 0.0001) among all adolescents and for adolescents in SPH as well (β = 0.041, 95% C.I. = 0.030, 0.052, p < 0.0001). Country policies may support the wellbeing of adolescents by reducing poverty and improving their socioeconomic position in society.

The impact of equity factors on receipt of timely appropriate care for children with suspected malaria in eastern Uganda

IntroductionMalaria accounts for more than one-tenth of sub-Saharan Africa’s 2.8 million annual childhood deaths, and remains a leading cause of post-neonatal child mortality in Uganda. Despite increased community-based treatment in Uganda, children continue to die because services fail to reach those most at risk. This study explores the influence of two key equity factors, socioeconomic position and rurality, on whether children with fever in eastern Uganda receive timely access to appropriate treatment for suspected malaria.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional study in which data were collected from 1094 caregivers of children aged 6–59 months on: illness and care-seeking during the previous two weeks, treatment received, and treatment dosing schedule. Additional data on rurality and household socioeconomic position were extracted from the Iganga-Mayuge Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) database. A child was considered to have received prompt and appropriate care for symptoms of malaria if they received the recommended drug in the recommended dosing schedule on the day of symptom onset or the next day. Unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models were developed to explore associations of the two equity factors with the outcome. The STROBE checklist for observational studies guided reporting.ResultsSeventy-four percent of children had symptoms of illness in the preceding two weeks, of which fever was the most common. Children from rural households were statistically more likely to receive prompt and appropriate treatment with artemisinin-combination therapy than their semi-urban counterparts (OR 2.32, CI 1.17–4.59, p = 0.016). This association remained significant following application of an adjusted regression model that included the age of the child, caregiver relationship, and household wealth index (OR 2.4, p = 0.036). Wealth index in its own right did not exert a significant effect for children with reported fever (OR for wealthiest quintile = 1.02, CI 0.48–2.15, p = 0.958).ConclusionsThe findings from this study help to identify the role and importance of two key equity determinants on care seeking and treatment receipt for fever in children. Whilst results should be interpreted within the limitations of data and context, further studies have the potential to assist policy makers to target inequitable social and spatial variations in health outcomes as a key strategy in ending preventable child morbidity and mortality.

795Contribution of school meals provision/receipt to “catch up growth” in young children: A counterfactual approach

795Contribution of school meals provision/receipt to “catch up growth” in young children: A counterfactual approach

Particle exposures and health effects in peri-urban South India: findings from the CHAI Project

We provide an overview of findings from the Cardiovascular health effects of air pollution in Telangana, India (CHAI) project, a recent effort to investigate health effects of household and ambient particle exposure in a cross-sectional cohort study. We developed a local land use regression model to estimate particle exposure for all households within 28 villages outside the city of Hyderabad using data from a measurement campaign. Mean measured PM2.5 was 34 (sd 3.2) µg/m3 and black carbon (BC) was 2.7 (sd 0.5) µg/m3. Approximately 60% of households reported using biomass as the primary cooking fuel. To integrate across multiple relevant sources of particle exposure in the population, we developed a model of average personal exposure based on personal exposure measurements (n=610, 24 h avg) and participants’ self-reported usual activities and behaviours. Personal exposure to PM2.5 and BC was predicted for all participants in the cohort (n=6000). Personal exposure measurements were not correlated (Rspearman &lt; 0.2) with annual ambient concentration at residence modeled by land-use regression. Predictors of personal exposure in women included cooking activities and household socioeconomic position, while in men predictors were smoking and occupation. We provide an overview of results from epidemiological analyses to estimate the independent effects of ambient particles and primary cooking fuel on carotid intima media thickness, blood pressure, and blood glucose levels. We also present results regarding the association between predicted personal exposure and vascular function measures over a wide exposure range (e.g. mean PM2.5 51 µg/m3 (IQR=9.4) for men, 61 µg/m3 (IQR=12.9) for women). We discuss lessons learned regarding investigating ambient air pollution in settings with high exposure to household air pollution and challenges using more personalized exposures in epidemiological analysis and how findings from CHAI fit within the broader context of air pollution health effects studies in Indian populations.

Role of ethnicity and socioeconomic status (SES) in the presentation of retinoblastoma: findings from the UK

BackgroundThe relationship between the ethnic background or socioeconomic status (SES) and late retinoblastoma (Rb) presentation in the UK is unclear. We aimed to investigate if such correlations exist in a...

Affective symptoms across the life course and resilience in cognitive function

Background: Little is known about what factors can modify the relationship between affective symptoms and cognitive function across the life course.Aim: To investigate a number of factors that can contribute to resilience in cognitive function in relation to affective symptoms, using data from the National Child Development Study.Subjects and methods: Adult affective symptoms were measured using the Malaise Inventory Scale (ages 23, 33, 42 and 50). Measures of immediate and delayed memory, verbal fluency and information processing accuracy (age 50) were used to derive measures of resilience in cognitive function—better than predicted cognition, when accounting for experiences of affective symptoms. Factors contributing to resilience in cognitive function were informed by a literature review and included sex, childhood cognitive ability, education, household socio-economic position (SEP), midlife SEP, and APOE genotype. Linear regression and structural equation modelling approaches were used for analyses.Results: Higher childhood cognitive ability, educational level, midlife SEP and female sex contributed to better than predicted cognitive function in relation to affective symptoms (i.e. resilience), with particularly consistent effects for memory. No effects on resilience were revealed for APOE genotype.Conclusion: Understanding factors contributing to resilience in cognitive function in those with affective symptoms can inform interventions to promote healthy cognitive ageing for those at risk.

Health inequities associated with skin color and ethnicity in Mexico

ABSTRACTIn this paper we analyze differences in self-rated health and happiness according to skin color and ethnicity among Mexican adults. We explore possible factors contributing to these differences in health outcomes, including socioeconomic position, living conditions, and the perception of control over one’s own life. We analyzed the 2010 National Values Survey database (n = 15,693). Interviewers assessed and classified participants into one of five categories combining skin color and ethnicity: white, light brown, dark brown, Afro-descendant, or indigenous. Health outcomes were measured as self-rated health and happiness scales. Household socioeconomic position, neighborhood socioeconomic position, satisfaction of needs, and perceived control over life were considered as potential mediating variables. We observed that people classified as light brown and dark brown reported lower levels of self-rated health and happiness compared to people classified as whites. These differences were mainly due to socioeconomic position, living conditions, and perception of control over life. Afro-descendants also had lower levels of self-reported health. The results suggest that, in Mexico, there are health inequities associated with skin color and ethnicity. Although a significant proportion of these disparities are related to socioeconomic position, other processes may be involved (e.g. perception of control). Our findings can inform policies aimed to reduce racist disparities in health among the Mexican population.

Personal exposure to particulate matter in peri-urban India: predictors and association with ambient concentration at residence.

Scalable exposure assessment approaches that capture personal exposure to particles for purposes of epidemiology are currently limited, but valuable, particularly in low-/middle-income countries where sources of personal exposure are often distinct from those of ambient concentrations. We measured 2 × 24-h integrated personal exposure to PM2.5 and black carbon in two seasons in 402 participants living in peri-urban South India. Means (sd) of PM2.5 personal exposure were 55.1(82.8) µg/m3 for men and 58.5(58.8) µg/m3 for women; corresponding figures for black carbon were 4.6(7.0) µg/m3 and 6.1(9.6) µg/m3. Most variability in personal exposure was within participant (intra-class correlation ~20%). Personal exposure measurements were not correlated (Rspearman < 0.2) with annual ambient concentration at residence modeled by land-use regression; no subgroup with moderate or good agreement could be identified (weighted kappa ≤ 0.3 in all subgroups). We developed models to predict personal exposure in men and women separately, based on time-invariant characteristics collected at baseline (individual, household, and general time-activity) using forward stepwise model building with mixed models. Models for women included cooking activities and household socio-economic position, while models for men included smoking and occupation. Models performed moderately in terms of between-participant variance explained (38-53%) and correlations between predictions and measurements (Rspearman: 0.30-0.50). More detailed, time-varying time-activity data did not substantially improve the performance of the models. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of predicting personal exposure in support of epidemiological studies investigating long-term particulate matter exposure in settings characterized by solid fuel use and high occupational exposure to particles.

Household socio-economic position and individual infectious disease risk in rural Kenya

The importance of household socio-economic position (SEP) in shaping individual infectious disease risk is increasingly recognised, particularly in low income settings. However, few studies have measured the extent to which this association is consistent for the range of pathogens that are typically endemic among the rural poor in the tropics. This cross-sectional study assessed the relationship between SEP and human infection within a single community in western Kenya using a set of pathogens with diverse transmission routes. The relationships between household SEP and individual infection with Plasmodium falciparum, hookworm (Ancylostoma duodenale and/or Necator americanus), Entamoeba histolytica/dispar, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and HIV, and co-infections between hookworm, P. falciparum and E. histolytica/dispar, were assessed using multivariable logistic and multinomial regression. Individuals in households with the lowest SEP were at greatest risk of infection with P. falciparum, hookworm and E. histolytica/dispar, as well as co-infection with each pathogen. Infection with M. tuberculosis, by contrast, was most likely in individuals living in households with the highest SEP. There was no evidence of a relationship between individual HIV infection and household SEP. We demonstrate the existence of a household socio-economic gradient within a rural farming community in Kenya which impacts upon individual infectious disease risk. Structural adjustments that seek to reduce poverty, and therefore the socio-economic inequalities that exist in this community, would be expected to substantially reduce overall infectious disease burden. However, policy makers and researchers should be aware that heterogeneous relationships can exist between household SEP and infection risk for different pathogens in low income settings.

Attempted suicide in Sri Lanka – An epidemiological study of household and community factors

BackgroundAn individual's suicide risk is determined by personal characteristics, but is also influenced by their environment. Previous studies indicate a role of contextual effects on suicidal behaviour, but there is a dearth of quantitative evidence from Asia. MethodsIndividual and community level data were collected on 165,233 people from 47,919 households in 171 communities in rural Sri Lanka. Data were collected on individual (age, sex, past suicide attempts and individual socioeconomic position (SEP)) and household (household SEP, pesticide access, alcohol use and multigenerational households) level factors. We used 3-level logit models to investigate compositional (individual) and contextual (household/community) effects. ResultsWe found significant variation between households 21% (95% CI 18%, 24%) and communities 4% (95% CI 3%, 5%) in the risk of a suicide attempt. Contextual factors as measured by low household SEP (OR 2.37 95% CI 2.10, 2.67), low community SEP (OR 1.45 95% CI 1.21, 1.74), and community ‘problem’ alcohol use (OR 1.44 95% CI 1.19, 1.75) were associated with an increased risk of suicide attempt. Women living in households with alcohol misuse were at higher risk of attempted suicide. We observed a protective effect of living in multigenerational households (OR 0.53 95% CI 0.42, 0.65). LimitationsThe outcome was respondent-reported and refers to lifetime reports of attempted suicide, therefore this study might be affected by socially desirable responding. ConclusionsOur study finds that contextual factors are associated with an individual's risk of attempted suicide in Sri Lanka, independent of an individual's personal characteristics.

Is increasing urbanicity associated with changes in breastfeeding duration in rural India? An analysis of cross-sectional household data from the Andhra Pradesh children and parents study

ObjectiveTo investigate whether village-level urbanicity and lower level socioeconomic factors are associated with breastfeeding practices in transitioning rural communities in India.Setting29 villages in Ranga Reddy district, southern India between 2011...

A score to predict and stratify risk of tuberculosis in adult contacts of tuberculosis index cases: a prospective derivation and external validation cohort study

SummaryBackgroundContacts of tuberculosis index cases are at increased risk of developing tuberculosis. Screening, preventive therapy, and surveillance for tuberculosis are underused interventions in contacts, particularly adults. We developed a score to predict risk of tuberculosis in adult contacts of tuberculosis index cases.MethodsIn 2002–06, we recruited contacts aged 15 years or older of index cases with pulmonary tuberculosis who lived in desert shanty towns in Ventanilla, Peru. We followed up contacts for tuberculosis until February, 2016. We used a Cox proportional hazards model to identify index case, contact, and household risk factors for tuberculosis from which to derive a score and classify contacts as low, medium, or high risk. We validated the score in an urban community recruited in Callao, Peru, in 2014–15.FindingsIn the derivation cohort, we identified 2017 contacts of 715 index cases, and median follow-up was 10·7 years (IQR 9·5–11·8). 178 (9%) of 2017 contacts developed tuberculosis during 19 147 person-years of follow-up (incidence 0·93 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 0·80–1·08). Risk factors for tuberculosis were body-mass index, previous tuberculosis, age, sustained exposure to the index case, the index case being in a male patient, lower community household socioeconomic position, indoor air pollution, previous tuberculosis among household members, and living in a household with a low number of windows per room. The 10-year risks of tuberculosis in the low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups were, respectively, 2·8% (95% CI 1·7–4·4), 6·2% (4·8–8·1), and 20·6% (17·3–24·4). The 535 (27%) contacts classified as high risk accounted for 60% of the tuberculosis identified during follow-up. The score predicted tuberculosis independently of tuberculin skin test and index-case drug sensitivity results. In the external validation cohort, 65 (3%) of 1910 contacts developed tuberculosis during 3771 person-years of follow-up (incidence 1·7 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 1·4–2·2). The 2·5-year risks of tuberculosis in the low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups were, respectively, 1·4% (95% CI 0·7–2·8), 3·9% (2·5–5·9), and 8·6%· (5·9–12·6).InterpretationOur externally validated risk score could predict and stratify 10-year risk of developing tuberculosis in adult contacts, and could be used to prioritise tuberculosis control interventions for people most likely to benefit.FundingWellcome Trust, Department for International Development Civil Society Challenge Fund, Joint Global Health Trials consortium, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Imperial College National Institutes of Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics, Sir Halley Stewart Trust, WHO, TB REACH, and Innovation for Health and Development.