Household Secondary Attack Rate Research Articles

The Epidemiological Pattern of COVID-19 Epidemic, During the Initial Phase in Thi-Qar Governorate, Iraq: A Case Series Study

Background/ Aims: Understanding the epidemiological features and transmission dynamic during the initial phase of the COVID-19 epidemic provide valuable information for control and mitigation of the outbreak. Thus, this study focused on a cohort who represent early cases in Thi-Qar governorate for describing the early epidemiological features during the initial phase of the COVID-19 outbreak. Subject & Methods: This case series study was conducted in AL-Hussien Teaching Hospital, Thi-Qar governorate, from 27, February to 8, May 2020. Patient's data were obtained from official records of the Public Health Department of ThiQar Health Directory. A descriptive and analytical statistic were used by the aid of SPSS, also household secondary attack rate was estimated. Results: The median age was 37 years (IQR:31,20-51), females were 57.2% and males were 42.8%. According to age groups, as a higher infection rate (30.61% %) was found in the age group (14-26), while only (4%) found old age groups(66-78,79-91). Only six patients(12.25%) had comorbidities. Clinically, majority(79.6%) of cases were mild and (18.4%) moderate while only (4%) were severe. The age and comorbidities had an effect on the severity of symptoms. Family transmission(80.43%) was the predominant dynamic of disease transmission. Three index cases in this cohort fulfill the criteria of super-spreader as collectively transmitted the disease to 79.6% individuals, the household secondary attack rates were 22%, 24%, and 17% respectively. Conclusion: Family transmission was the predominant dynamic of transmission which was the result of the presence of a super-spreader event in the early infected patients in the governorate.

Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2

Crowded indoor environments, such as households, are high-risk settings for the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). To examine evidence for household transmission of SARS-CoV-2, disaggregated by several covariates, and to compare it with other coronaviruses. PubMed, searched through October 19, 2020. Search terms included SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 with secondary attack rate, household, close contacts, contact transmission, contact attack rate, or family transmission. All articles with original data for estimating household secondary attack rate were included. Case reports focusing on individual households and studies of close contacts that did not report secondary attack rates for household members were excluded. Meta-analyses were done using a restricted maximum-likelihood estimator model to yield a point estimate and 95% CI for secondary attack rate for each subgroup analyzed, with a random effect for each study. To make comparisons across exposure types, study was treated as a random effect, and exposure type was a fixed moderator. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline was followed. Secondary attack rate for SARS-CoV-2, disaggregated by covariates (ie, household or family contact, index case symptom status, adult or child contacts, contact sex, relationship to index case, adult or child index cases, index case sex, number of contacts in household) and for other coronaviruses. A total of 54 relevant studies with 77 758 participants reporting household secondary transmission were identified. Estimated household secondary attack rate was 16.6% (95% CI, 14.0%-19.3%), higher than secondary attack rates for SARS-CoV (7.5%; 95% CI, 4.8%-10.7%) and MERS-CoV (4.7%; 95% CI, 0.9%-10.7%). Household secondary attack rates were increased from symptomatic index cases (18.0%; 95% CI, 14.2%-22.1%) than from asymptomatic index cases (0.7%; 95% CI, 0%-4.9%), to adult contacts (28.3%; 95% CI, 20.2%-37.1%) than to child contacts (16.8%; 95% CI, 12.3%-21.7%), to spouses (37.8%; 95% CI, 25.8%-50.5%) than to other family contacts (17.8%; 95% CI, 11.7%-24.8%), and in households with 1 contact (41.5%; 95% CI, 31.7%-51.7%) than in households with 3 or more contacts (22.8%; 95% CI, 13.6%-33.5%). The findings of this study suggest that given that individuals with suspected or confirmed infections are being referred to isolate at home, households will continue to be a significant venue for transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

The Household Secondary Attack Rate of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): A Rapid Review.

BackgroundAlthough much of the public health effort to combat coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has focused on disease control strategies in public settings, transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) within households remains an important problem. The nature and determinants of household transmission are poorly understood. MethodsTo address this gap, we gathered and analyzed data from 22 published and prepublished studies from 10 countries (20 291 household contacts) that were available through 2 September 2020. Our goal was to combine estimates of the SARS-CoV-2 household secondary attack rate (SAR) and to explore variation in estimates of the household SAR. ResultsThe overall pooled random-effects estimate of the household SAR was 17.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.7–21.2%). In study-level, random-effects meta-regressions stratified by testing frequency (1 test, 2 tests, >2 tests), SAR estimates were 9.2% (95% CI, 6.7–12.3%), 17.5% (95% CI, 13.9–21.8%), and 21.3% (95% CI, 13.8–31.3%), respectively. Household SARs tended to be higher among older adult contacts and among contacts of symptomatic cases. ConclusionsThese findings suggest that SARs reported using a single follow-up test may be underestimated, and that testing household contacts of COVID-19 cases on multiple occasions may increase the yield for identifying secondary cases.

What do we know about SARS-CoV-2 transmission? A systematic review and meta-analysis of the secondary attack rate and associated risk factors.

Current SARS-CoV-2 containment measures rely on controlling viral transmission. Effective prioritization can be determined by understanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analyses of the secondary attack rate (SAR) in household and healthcare settings. We also examined whether household transmission differed by symptom status of index case, adult and children, and relationship to index case. We searched PubMed, medRxiv, and bioRxiv databases between January 1 and July 25, 2020. High-quality studies presenting original data for calculating point estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were included. Random effects models were constructed to pool SAR in household and healthcare settings. Publication bias was assessed by funnel plots and Egger's meta-regression test. 43 studies met the inclusion criteria for household SAR, 18 for healthcare SAR, and 17 for other settings. The pooled household SAR was 18.1% (95% CI: 15.7%, 20.6%), with significant heterogeneity across studies ranging from 3.9% to 54.9%. SAR of symptomatic index cases was higher than asymptomatic cases (RR: 3.23; 95% CI: 1.46, 7.14). Adults showed higher susceptibility to infection than children (RR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.35, 2.17). Spouses of index cases were more likely to be infected compared to other household contacts (RR: 2.39; 95% CI: 1.79, 3.19). In healthcare settings, SAR was estimated at 0.7% (95% CI: 0.4%, 1.0%). While aggressive contact tracing strategies may be appropriate early in an outbreak, as it progresses, measures should transition to account for setting-specific transmission risk. Quarantine may need to cover entire communities while tracing shifts to identifying transmission hotspots and vulnerable populations. Where possible, confirmed cases should be isolated away from the household.

Secondary attack rate of COVID-19 in household contacts: a systematic review.

Objective COVID-19 is a novel virus with continuously evolving transmission trends. Contact tracing and quarantining of positive cases are chief strategies of disease control that has been accepted globally. Though scientific knowledge regarding household transmission of the COVID-19 through contact of positive case is sparse. Current systematic review was planned to assess global statistics and characteristics of household secondary attack rate (SAR) of COVID-19. Methods Eligible articles were retrieved through search of – MEDLINE, SCOPUS and EMBASE for the period December 2019 to June 15th 2020. Search terms were developed to identify articles reporting household SARs in various countries. After initial screening of 326 articles, 13 eligible studies were included in the final evidence synthesis. Results We found that SAR varies widely across countries with lowest reported rate as 4.6% and highest as 49.56%. The rates were unaffected by confounders such as population of the country, lockdown status and geographic location. Review suggested greater vulnerability of spouse and elderly population for secondary transmission than other household members. It was also observed that quarantining and isolation are most effective strategies for prevention of the secondary transmission of the disease. Symptomatic status of the index case emerged to be a critical factor, with very low transmission probability during asymptomatic phase. Conclusion Present review findings recommend that adequate measures should be provided to protect the vulnerable population as only case tracing and quarantining might be insufficient. It should be combined with advisory for limiting household contacts and active surveillance for symptom onset.

Household secondary attack rate of COVID-19 and associated determinants in Guangzhou, China: a retrospective cohort study

BackgroundAs of June 8, 2020, the global reported number of COVID-19 cases had reached more than 7 million with over 400 000 deaths. The household transmissibility of the causative pathogen, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), remains unclear. We aimed to estimate the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 among household and non-household close contacts in Guangzhou, China, using a statistical transmission model.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, we used a comprehensive contact tracing dataset from the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention to estimate the secondary attack rate of COVID-19 (defined as the probability that an infected individual will transmit the disease to a susceptible individual) among household and non-household contacts, using a statistical transmission model. We considered two alternative definitions of household contacts in the analysis: individuals who were either family members or close relatives, such as parents and parents-in-law, regardless of residential address, and individuals living at the same address regardless of relationship. We assessed the demographic determinants of transmissibility and the infectivity of COVID-19 cases during their incubation period.FindingsBetween Jan 7, 2020, and Feb 18, 2020, we traced 195 unrelated close contact groups (215 primary cases, 134 secondary or tertiary cases, and 1964 uninfected close contacts). By identifying households from these groups, assuming a mean incubation period of 5 days, a maximum infectious period of 13 days, and no case isolation, the estimated secondary attack rate among household contacts was 12·4% (95% CI 9·8–15·4) when household contacts were defined on the basis of close relatives and 17·1% (13·3–21·8) when household contacts were defined on the basis of residential address. Compared with the oldest age group (≥60 years), the risk of household infection was lower in the youngest age group (<20 years; odds ratio [OR] 0·23 [95% CI 0·11–0·46]) and among adults aged 20–59 years (OR 0·64 [95% CI 0·43–0·97]). Our results suggest greater infectivity during the incubation period than during the symptomatic period, although differences were not statistically significant (OR 0·61 [95% CI 0·27–1·38]). The estimated local reproductive number (R) based on observed contact frequencies of primary cases was 0·5 (95% CI 0·41–0·62) in Guangzhou. The projected local R, had there been no isolation of cases or quarantine of their contacts, was 0·6 (95% CI 0·49–0·74) when household was defined on the basis of close relatives.InterpretationSARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible in households than SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. Older individuals (aged ≥60 years) are the most susceptible to household transmission of SARS-CoV-2. In addition to case finding and isolation, timely tracing and quarantine of close contacts should be implemented to prevent onward transmission during the viral incubation period.FundingUS National Institutes of Health, Science and Technology Plan Project of Guangzhou, Project for Key Medicine Discipline Construction of Guangzhou Municipality, Key Research and Development Program of China.

Epidemiological characteristics of and containment measures for COVID-19 in Busan, Korea.

ObjectivesTo describe and evaluate epidemiological investigation results and containment measures implemented in Busan, where 108 cases were confirmed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) between February 21, 2020 and March 24, 2020. MethodsAny individual who tested positive for COVID-19 was classified as a confirmed case. Measures were taken to identify the source of infection and trace and quarantine contacts. Serial intervals were estimated and the effective reproduction number was computed. ResultsOf the total 18,303 COVID-19 tests performed between January 16, 2020 and March 24, 2020 in Busan, 108 yielded positive results (positive test rate, 0.6%). All confirmed cases were placed in isolation at hospitals. Of the 108 confirmed cases, 59 (54.6%) were female. The most common age group was 20-29 years with 37 cases (34.3%). Regarding symptoms at the time of diagnosis, cough (n=38, 35.2%) and fever (n=34, 31.5%) were most common; 12 cases (11.1%) were asymptomatic. The source of infection was identified in 99 cases (91.7%). A total of 3,223 contacts were identified and quarantined. Household contacts accounted for 196, and the household secondary attack rate was 8.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.7 to 12.9). The mean serial interval was estimated to be 5.54 days (95% CI, 4.08 to 7.01). After February 26, (Rt) remained below 1 in Busan.ConclusionsThe early containment strategy implemented in Busan shows that control is possible if outbreaks are of limited scope. In preparation for future outbreaks, public health and healthcare systems should be re-examined and put in a ready state.

Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in 391 cases and 1286 of their close contacts in Shenzhen, China: a retrospective cohort study

SummaryBackgroundRapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China, prompted heightened surveillance in Shenzhen, China. The resulting data provide a rare opportunity to measure key metrics of disease course, transmission, and the impact of control measures.MethodsFrom Jan 14 to Feb 12, 2020, the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention identified 391 SARS-CoV-2 cases and 1286 close contacts. We compared cases identified through symptomatic surveillance and contact tracing, and estimated the time from symptom onset to confirmation, isolation, and admission to hospital. We estimated metrics of disease transmission and analysed factors influencing transmission risk.FindingsCases were older than the general population (mean age 45 years) and balanced between males (n=187) and females (n=204). 356 (91%) of 391 cases had mild or moderate clinical severity at initial assessment. As of Feb 22, 2020, three cases had died and 225 had recovered (median time to recovery 21 days; 95% CI 20–22). Cases were isolated on average 4·6 days (95% CI 4·1–5·0) after developing symptoms; contact tracing reduced this by 1·9 days (95% CI 1·1–2·7). Household contacts and those travelling with a case were at higher risk of infection (odds ratio 6·27 [95% CI 1·49–26·33] for household contacts and 7·06 [1·43–34·91] for those travelling with a case) than other close contacts. The household secondary attack rate was 11·2% (95% CI 9·1–13·8), and children were as likely to be infected as adults (infection rate 7·4% in children <10 years vs population average of 6·6%). The observed reproductive number (R) was 0·4 (95% CI 0·3–0·5), with a mean serial interval of 6·3 days (95% CI 5·2–7·6).InterpretationOur data on cases as well as their infected and uninfected close contacts provide key insights into the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. This analysis shows that isolation and contact tracing reduce the time during which cases are infectious in the community, thereby reducing the R. The overall impact of isolation and contact tracing, however, is uncertain and highly dependent on the number of asymptomatic cases. Moreover, children are at a similar risk of infection to the general population, although less likely to have severe symptoms; hence they should be considered in analyses of transmission and control.FundingEmergency Response Program of Harbin Institute of Technology, Emergency Response Program of Peng Cheng Laboratory, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Coronavirus Disease Outbreak in Call Center, South Korea.

We describe the epidemiology of a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in a call center in South Korea. We obtained information on demographic characteristics by using standardized epidemiologic investigation forms. We performed descriptive analyses and reported the results as frequencies and proportions for categoric variables. Of 1,143 persons who were tested for COVID-19, a total of 97 (8.5%, 95% CI 7.0%–10.3%) had confirmed cases. Of these, 94 were working in an 11th-floor call center with 216 employees, translating to an attack rate of 43.5% (95% CI 36.9%–50.4%). The household secondary attack rate among symptomatic case-patients was 16.2% (95% CI 11.6%– 22.0%). Of the 97 persons with confirmed COVID-19, only 4 (1.9%) remained asymptomatic within 14 days of quarantine, and none of their household contacts acquired secondary infections. Extensive contact tracing, testing all contacts, and early quarantine blocked further transmission and might be effective for containing rapid outbreaks in crowded work settings.

Systematic selection between age and household structure for models aimed at emerging epidemic predictions

Numerous epidemic models have been developed to capture aspects of human contact patterns, making model selection challenging when they fit (often-scarce) early epidemic data equally well but differ in predictions. Here we consider the invasion of a novel directly transmissible infection and perform an extensive, systematic and transparent comparison of models with explicit age and/or household structure, to determine the accuracy loss in predictions in the absence of interventions when ignoring either or both social components. We conclude that, with heterogeneous and assortative contact patterns relevant to respiratory infections, the model’s age stratification is crucial for accurate predictions. Conversely, the household structure is only needed if transmission is highly concentrated in households, as suggested by an empirical but robust rule of thumb based on household secondary attack rate. This work serves as a template to guide the simplicity/accuracy trade-off in designing models aimed at initial, rapid assessment of potential epidemic severity.

Variability in Intrahousehold Transmission of Ebola Virus, and Estimation of the Household Secondary Attack Rate.

Transmission between family members accounts for most Ebola virus transmission, but little is known about determinants of intrahousehold spread. From detailed exposure histories, intrahousehold transmission chains were created for 94 households of Ebola survivors in Sierra Leone: 109 (co-)primary cases gave rise to 317 subsequent cases (0-100% of those exposed). Larger households were more likely to have subsequent cases, and the proportion of household members affected depended on individual and household-level factors. More transmissions occurred from older than from younger cases, and from those with more severe disease. The estimated household secondary attack rate was 18%.

Association between Haemagglutination inhibiting antibodies and protection against clade 6B viruses in 2013 and 2015.

The epidemiology of the pandemic A(H1N1) virus has been changing as population immunity continues to co-evolve with the virus. The impact of genetic changes in the virus on human's susceptibility is an outstanding important question in vaccine design. In a community-based study, we aim to (1) determine the genetic characteristics of 2009-2015 pandemic H1N1 viruses, (2) assess antibody response following natural infections and (3) assess the correlation of A/California/07/09 antibody titers to protection in the 2013 and 2015 epidemics. In a household transmission study, serum specimens from 253 individuals in Managua, Nicaragua were analyzed. Combined nose and throat swabs were collected to detect RT-PCR confirmed influenza infection and virus sequencing. Hemagglutination inhibition assays were performed and the protective titer for circulating H1N1pdm was determined. Clade 6B pandemic H1N1 viruses predominated in Nicaragua during the 2013 and 2015 seasons. Our household transmission study detected a household secondary attack rate of 17% in 2013 and 33% in 2015. Infected individuals, including vaccinees, showed an apparent antibody response to A/California/07/09. Baseline titers of A/California/07/09 antibodies were found to associate with protection in both seasons. A titer of ≥1:40 correlated to a 44% protection in children, a 29% protection in adults 15-49years old and a 51% protection in adults 50-85years old. In 2013 and 2015, antibody titers to A/California/07/09 associated with an infection risk reduction amongst exposed household contacts. This is consistent with a detectable vaccine effectiveness reported in a number of studies. Genetic changes in clade 6B viruses might have led to a reduced immunity in some whereas others might have been less affected. The use of human serologic data is important in virus characterization and if performed in a timely manner, could assist in vaccine strain selection.

Transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease and intervention effectiveness in Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone is the most severely affected country by an unprecedented outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa. Although successfully contained, the transmission dynamics of EVD and the impact of interventions in the country remain unclear. We established a database of confirmed and suspected EVD cases from May 2014 to September 2015 in Sierra Leone and mapped the spatiotemporal distribution of cases at the chiefdom level. A Poisson transmission model revealed that the transmissibility at the chiefdom level, estimated as the average number of secondary infections caused by a patient per week, was reduced by 43% [95% confidence interval (CI): 30%, 52%] after October 2014, when the strategic plan of the United Nations Mission for Emergency Ebola Response was initiated, and by 65% (95% CI: 57%, 71%) after the end of December 2014, when 100% case isolation and safe burials were essentially achieved, both compared with before October 2014. Population density, proximity to Ebola treatment centers, cropland coverage, and atmospheric temperature were associated with EVD transmission. The household secondary attack rate (SAR) was estimated to be 0.059 (95% CI: 0.050, 0.070) for the overall outbreak. The household SAR was reduced by 82%, from 0.093 to 0.017, after the nationwide campaign to achieve 100% case isolation and safe burials had been conducted. This study provides a complete overview of the transmission dynamics of the 2014-2015 EVD outbreak in Sierra Leone at both chiefdom and household levels. The interventions implemented in Sierra Leone seem effective in containing the epidemic, particularly in interrupting household transmission.

Transmissibility and Pathogenicity of Ebola Virus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Household Secondary Attack Rate and Asymptomatic Infection.

Factors affecting our ability to control an Ebola outbreak include transmissibility of the virus and the proportion of transmissions occurring asymptomatically. We performed a meta-analysis of Ebola household secondary attack rate (SAR), disaggregating by type of exposure (direct contact, no direct contact, nursing care, direct contact but no nursing care). The estimated overall household SAR is 12.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.6%-16.3%). Transmission was driven by direct contact, with little transmission occurring in its absence (SAR, 0.8% [95% CI, 0%-2.3%]). The greatest risk factor was the provision of nursing care (SAR, 47.9% [95% CI, 23.3%-72.6%]). There was evidence of a decline in household SAR for direct contact between 1976 and 2014 (P = .018). We estimate that 27.1% (95% CI, 14.5%-39.6%) of Ebola infections are asymptomatic. Our findings suggest that surveillance and containment measures should be effective for controlling Ebola.

Attack rate and household secondary attack rate of acute conjunctivitis during an outbreak in South India: A community-based survey.

Introduction:Knowledge on epidemiology of the disease in the contemporary world will help to develop appropriate strategies to curtail the transmission during an outbreak. This study was carried out during an outbreak of conjunctivitis in selected areas of Puducherry, South India, to assess the attack rate of conjunctivitis, identify factors associated with developing conjunctivitis and calculate household secondary attack rate (HSAR) of conjunctivitis and its correlates.Methodology:During December 2014, a community-based survey was conducted in a selected urban and rural area in Puducherry, South India. Simple random sampling was used to select primary sampling units and systematic sampling to select households. All individuals in the selected households were studied. A questionnaire was used to obtain data on sociodemographic characteristics, conjunctivitis during September-November, 2014, and number of household contacts who developed conjunctivitis within 7 days of index case. The attack rate and HSAR of conjunctivitis was expressed as percentage. Multivariate logistic regression was used to find factors independently associated with developing conjunctivitis and also 100% HSAR.Results:Of 3193 study participants from 772 households, 509 (15.9%, 95% confidence interval 14.7-17.2%) had an attack of conjunctivitis during the reference period. Of the 772 households, 218 (28.2%) had at least one case of conjunctivitis. Of 218 households, 33 (15.1%) households had 100% HSAR. Lower age, not being unemployed, low socioeconomic status, and residing in rural area were independently associated with developing conjunctivitis. Index case being male and living in a household with ≥5 members were independently associated with 100% HSAR.Conclusion:In the outbreak under study, more than one-fourth of households had at least one case of conjunctivitis and about one in every six individuals had an attack of conjunctivitis.

Inferring influenza dynamics and control in households

Household-based interventions are the mainstay of public health policy against epidemic respiratory pathogens when vaccination is not available. Although the efficacy of these interventions has traditionally been measured by their ability to reduce the proportion of household contacts who exhibit symptoms [household secondary attack rate (hSAR)], this metric is difficult to interpret and makes only partial use of data collected by modern field studies. Here, we use Bayesian transmission model inference to analyze jointly both symptom reporting and viral shedding data from a three-armed study of influenza interventions. The reduction in hazard of infection in the increased hand hygiene intervention arm was 37.0% [8.3%, 57.8%], whereas the equivalent reduction in the other intervention arm was 27.2% [-0.46%, 52.3%] (increased hand hygiene and face masks). By imputing the presence and timing of unobserved infection, we estimated that only 61.7% [43.1%, 76.9%] of infections met the case criteria and were thus detected by the study design. An assessment of interventions using inferred infections produced more intuitively consistent attack rates when households were stratified by the speed of intervention, compared with the crude hSAR. Compared with adults, children were 2.29 [1.66, 3.23] times as infectious and 3.36 [2.31, 4.82] times as susceptible. The mean generation time was 3.39 d [3.06, 3.70]. Laboratory confirmation of infections by RT-PCR was only able to detect 79.6% [76.5%, 83.0%] of symptomatic infections, even at the peak of shedding. Our results highlight the potential use of robust inference with well-designed mechanistic transmission models to improve the design of intervention studies.

Household transmissibility of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus, China, February to May 2013 and October 2013 to March 2014.

To study human-to-human transmissibility of the avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in China, household contact information was collected for 125 index cases during the spring wave (February to May 2013), and for 187 index cases during the winter wave (October 2013 to March 2014). Using a statistical model, we found evidence for human-to-human transmission, but such transmission is not sustainable. Under plausible assumptions about the natural history of disease and the relative transmission frequencies in settings other than household, we estimate the household secondary attack rate (SAR) among humans to be 1.4% (95% CI: 0.8 to 2.3), and the basic reproductive number R0 to be 0.08 (95% CI: 0.05 to 0.13). The estimates range from 1.3% to 2.2% for SAR and from 0.07 to 0.12 for R0 with reasonable changes in the assumptions. There was no significant change in the human-to-human transmissibility of the virus between the two waves, although a minor increase was observed in the winter wave. No sex or age difference in the risk of infection from a human source was found. Human-to-human transmissibility of H7N9 continues to be limited, but it needs to be closely monitored for potential increase via genetic reassortment or mutation.

Spatiotemporal spread of the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Liberia and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a computational modelling analysis

The 2014 epidemic of Ebola virus disease in parts of west Africa defines an unprecedented health threat. We developed a model of Ebola virus transmission that integrates detailed geographical and demographic data from Liberia to overcome the limitations of non-spatial approaches in projecting the disease dynamics and assessing non-pharmaceutical control interventions. We modelled the movements of individuals, including patients not infected with Ebola virus, seeking assistance in health-care facilities, the movements of individuals taking care of patients infected with Ebola virus not admitted to hospital, and the attendance of funerals. Individuals were grouped into randomly assigned households (size based on Demographic Health Survey data) that were geographically placed to match population density estimates on a grid of 3157 cells covering the country. The spatial agent-based model was calibrated with a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. The model was used to estimate Ebola virus transmission parameters and investigate the effectiveness of interventions such as availability of Ebola treatment units, safe burials procedures, and household protection kits. Up to Aug 16, 2014, we estimated that 38·3% of infections (95% CI 17·4-76·4) were acquired in hospitals, 30·7% (14·1-46·4) in households, and 8·6% (3·2-11·8) while participating in funerals. We noted that the movement and mixing, in hospitals at the early stage of the epidemic, of patients infected with Ebola virus and those not infected was a sufficient driver of the reported pattern of spatial spread. The subsequent decrease of incidence at country and county level is attributable to the increasing availability of Ebola treatment units (which in turn contributed to drastically decreased hospital transmission), safe burials, and distribution of household protection kits. The model allows assessment of intervention options and the understanding of their role in the decrease in incidence reported since Sept 7, 2014. High-quality data (eg, to estimate household secondary attack rate, contact patterns within hospitals, and effects of ongoing interventions) are needed to reduce uncertainty in model estimates. US Defense Threat Reduction Agency, US National Institutes of Health.

Influenza Transmission in a Community during a Seasonal Influenza A(H3N2) Outbreak (2010–2011) in Mongolia: A Community-Based Prospective Cohort Study

BackgroundKnowledge of how influenza viruses spread in a community is important for planning and implementation of effective interventions, including social distancing measures. Households and schools are implicated as the major sites for influenza virus transmission. However, the overall picture of community transmission is not well defined during actual outbreaks. We conducted a community-based prospective cohort study to describe the transmission characteristics of influenza in Mongolia.Methods and FindingsA total of 5,655 residents in 1,343 households were included in this cohort study. An active search for cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) was performed between October 2010 and April 2011. Data collected during a community outbreak of influenza A(H3N2) were analyzed. Total 282 ILI cases occurred during this period, and 73% of the subjects were aged <15 years. The highest attack rate (20.4%) was in those aged 1–4 years, whereas the attack rate in those aged 5–9 years was 10.8%. Fifty-one secondary cases occurred among 900 household contacts from 43 households (43 index cases), giving an overall crude household secondary attack rate (SAR) of 5.7%. SAR was significantly higher in younger household contacts (relative risk for those aged <1 year: 9.90, 1–4 years: 5.59, and 5–9 years: 6.43). We analyzed the transmission patterns among households and a community and repeated transmissions were detected between households, preschools, and schools. Children aged 1–4 years played an important role in influenza transmission in households and in the community at large. Working-age adults were also a source of influenza in households, whereas elderly cases (aged ≥65 years) had no link with household transmission.ConclusionsRepeated transmissions between households, preschools, and schools were observed during an influenza A(H3N2) outbreak period in Mongolia, where subjects aged 1–4 years played an important role in influenza transmission.

Assessing secondary attack rates among household contacts at the beginning of the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in Ontario, Canada, April-June 2009: A prospective, observational study

BackgroundUnderstanding transmission dynamics of the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in various exposure settings and determining whether transmissibility differed from seasonal influenza viruses was a priority for decision making on mitigation strategies at the beginning of the pandemic. The objective of this study was to estimate household secondary attack rates for pandemic influenza in a susceptible population where control measures had yet to be implemented.MethodsAll Ontario local health units were invited to participate; seven health units volunteered. For all laboratory-confirmed cases reported between April 24 and June 18, 2009, participating health units performed contact tracing to detect secondary cases among household contacts. In total, 87 cases and 266 household contacts were included in this study. Secondary cases were defined as any household member with new onset of acute respiratory illness (fever or two or more respiratory symptoms) or influenza-like illness (fever plus one additional respiratory symptom). Attack rates were estimated using both case definitions.ResultsSecondary attack rates were estimated at 10.3% (95% CI 6.8-14.7) for secondary cases with influenza-like illness and 20.2% (95% CI 15.4-25.6) for secondary cases with acute respiratory illness. For both case definitions, attack rates were significantly higher in children under 16 years than adults (25.4% and 42.4% compared to 7.6% and 17.2%). The median time between symptom onset in the primary case and the secondary case was estimated at 3.0 days.ConclusionsSecondary attack rates for pandemic influenza A (H1N1) were comparable to seasonal influenza estimates suggesting similarities in transmission. High secondary attack rates in children provide additional support for increased susceptibility to infection.