Household Panel Research Articles

Effect of e-commerce popularization on farmland abandonment in rural China: Evidence from a large-scale household survey

Uncertainty in the food supply continues to increase due to COVID-19 and geopolitical conflicts, and reducing farmland abandonment is an important measure for ensuring food security. In recent years, the Chinese government has promoted e-commerce demonstration projects in rural areas, so we ask does the spread of e-commerce reduce farmland abandonment? This study first constructs a theoretical framework for the effect of e-commerce on farmland abandonment and then quantifies that effect through spatial analysis and econometric models based on 12,732 households in the China Rural Household Panel Survey (CRHPS). The study found that there was a significant spatial aggregation between the popularization of e-commerce and the distribution of abandoned farmland, with a significant negative correlation between these two factors. The popularization of e-commerce has reduced farmland abandonment. The probability and size of farmland abandonment by farmers dropped by 4.1 % and 17.5 % when e-commerce was promoted in a village; the probability and size of farmland abandonment by farmers dropped by 7.8 % and 38.7 % when the rate of the popularization for e-commerce in villages increased by 1 %, respectively. E-commerce can reduce farmland abandonment in rural areas by absorbing returning labour, stimulating the land transfer market and revitalizing rural industry. With the improvement of physical infrastructure such as rural roads, the government should pay attention to the construction of digital villages including e-commerce infrastructure and continue to innovate new ways small farmers to participate in e-commerce, thus helping transform rural spaces and reusing idle land resources.

The Missing Link: Informal Political Elites and Protest in Areas of Limited Statehood

What explains protest mobilization in areas of limited statehood, where the government struggles to make and enforce rules? We adapt existing theory to explain protest mobilization through a comparative perspective, beginning with the proposition that informal political elites who mediate citizens’ interactions with the government in areas of limited statehood represent a crucial but understudied source of political opportunity. We specifically argue that informal political elites who are effective intermediaries between citizens and the state moderate the relationship between grievances and protest at the individual-level. Six months of fieldwork in Liberia substantiates this claim. Leveraging an original, high-frequency household panel dataset, we demonstrate how informal political elites called “community chairpeople” moderate the otherwise positive association between public service shortages and protest. Qualitative data collected through focus groups and interviews provide further evidence of how informal political elites shape protest mobilization in settings where the state is weak.

Mobile phone network expansion and agricultural income: A panel study

AbstractThis study examines how the expansion of mobile phone networks affects rural development in Mongolia. The database is a detailed household panel survey with four waves implemented in western Mongolia, spanning the 2012–2021 period, which we combine with data on mobile phone towers. Our identification strategy exploits the uneven roll‐out of mobile phone networks across rural areas over time. Using a two‐way fixed effects approach, we show that network expansion strongly and significantly increases total household income of pastoralist households. The effect is driven by increased income from agriculture, particularly by higher producer prices for animal byproducts, improved access to transfer income, and increased household mobility. The expansion of mobile phone networks decreases income diversification among pastoralists. Instead, households specialize in agriculture. While findings suggest that investments in telecommunication infrastructure can help rural households to sustain a livelihood in the agricultural sector, the specialization in agriculture may increase households’ vulnerability to climate change.

Sustaining enrolment when rains fail: School feeding, rainfall shocks and schooling in Malawi

Emerging evidence suggests that rural children, especially older girls in low-income countries, are at risk of being withdrawn from school when adverse weather-related events occur. Identifying actions that mitigate the adverse effects of weather shocks on schooling, therefore, is critical for sustaining equitable human capital formation. In this paper, we use four waves of household and community panel survey data, merged with long-term, spatially explicit rainfall data to investigate whether access to school feeding programmes (SFP) in Malawi supports primary school enrolment when negative rainfall shocks occur. We find some evidence that access to SFP increases enrolment for older children when their households experience anomalously low rainfall conditions compared to those without SFP. The positive associations of SFP on enrolment persist when we consider historical shocks over longer periods. When we disaggregate by sex, however, there are no differentials. The findings suggest that SFPs, already a common intervention in many contexts, may have modest potential for improving primary school completion rates, educational advancement and human capital formation in the context of a rapidly changing climate.

Energiekrise belastet Haushalte

Abstract As a result of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, energy prices have risen sharply. In order to fully assess the consequences of this energy crisis for households in Germany, the German Advisory Council for Consumer Affairs (SVRV) is conducting a representative household panel survey from April 2023 to July 2024 with a total of six survey waves. So far, two waves have been carried out with more than 4,444 participating households in April/May and June/July 2023, respectively. In the present article, we present the methodology of the survey, the main results and recommendations for action.

Overlooked and Invisible: A Profile of the Japanese Educated Working Poor

Expanding the work proposed by Murakami et al. (2011), we seek to discover and profile a subset of the Japanese working poor, namely those who are educated to degree level. Using data from the Japanese Household Panel Survey, we build up a profile into the educated working poor, and show they have significantly lower self-reported levels of income satisfaction and life satisfaction. Further, we explore the extent to which geographical factors play a key role in explaining the newly identified educated working poor, and find that there are significant spatial differences in the poor rate, and that job location, occupation, and firm size is significantly different for the educated working poor compared to the working poor.

Modelling the composition of household portfolios: A latent class approach

AbstractWe explore portfolio allocation in Great Britain by introducing a latent class modelling approach using household panel data based on a nationally representative sample of the population, namely the Wealth and Assets Survey. The latent class aspect of the model splits households into four groups, from lowest‐wealth and least‐diversified through to highest‐wealth and most‐diversified, which serves to unveil a more detailed picture of the determinants of portfolio diversification than existing econometric approaches. A pattern of class heterogeneity is revealed that conventional econometric models are unable to identify because the statistical significance and the direction of the effect of some explanatory variables vary across the groups. For example, the effect of labour income on the number of financial assets held influences the level of diversification for the two middle classes, whereas no effect is found for households with the lowest or the highest levels of diversification. Noticeable differences in the magnitude of the effects of pension wealth and occupation are also revealed across the four classes. Such findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for latent heterogeneity when modelling financial behaviour. Ultimately, treating the population as a single homogeneous group may lead to biased parameter estimates, whereby policy based on such models could be inappropriate or erroneous.

Vulnerability to seasonal food insecurity as an exposure to risk: the case of the Southern Province of Zambia

BackgroundSeasonality is an important aspect of food security for subsistence households in developing countries. Among the multidimensional aspects of food security, this paper focuses on how unexpected negative harvest shocks would affect the seasonal food consumption of households. This is particularly important because, with the increasing threat of climate change, the frequency of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods is expected to increase; this would adversely affect crop yields.MethodsGiven seasonal price changes of staple foods, some households buy them when prices are low and store them for the hunger season (not buy high (NBH) households), while others run out of staple foods before the next harvest and therefore buy them when prices are high (buy high (BH) households). Using three years of weekly household panel data for the Choma and Sinazongwe Districts of the southern province of Zambia, we assess the ability of seasonal consumption smoothing separately for NBH and BH households.ResultsNBH households successfully smooth their consumption over the 12 months of the crop year. In contrast, BH households, especially for households with few assets, reduce total consumption in response to harvest shocks, just after the harvest and during the “hunger season” just before the next harvest. However, in spite of this, the consumption of staple foods is generally insensitive to harvest shocks. Instead, they reduce consumption only of non-staple food items, such as vegetables and meats.ConclusionsSeasonal food insecurity is exacerbated by negative harvest shocks. We emphasize the significance of policies aimed at increasing public awareness of healthier food choices, empowering households to avoid purchasing maize at high prices, and reducing seasonal price disparities.

Driving factors of energy related CO2 emissions at a regional level in the residential sector of Iran

Iran has increased its CO2 emissions significantly during the past few decades. The household sector in Iran contributes one of the largest sectors of CO2 emissions. Despite this significant contribution, the existing policies have predominantly concentrated on large-scale initiatives while overlooking the regional role in shaping and implementing these plans. Therefore, this study investigates the relationship between CO2 emissions and the efficient factors in three major groups including energy, climate, and household socio-economic factors. This study aims to address regional carbon emissions and develop CO2 reduction policies tailored to each region's specific circumstances. It focuses on planning strategies at the regional level to effectively tackle CO2 emissions. Household panel data of 28 provinces of Iran are employed by using both static and dynamic panel models for the years 2001 to 2019. Static estimation includes Fixed Effect (FE), Random Effect (RE) and pooled Partial least squares (PLS), Dynamic estimation includes difference Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The empirical result of the static method showed positive dependence of household CO2 emissions on Heating Degree Days (HDD), Cooling Degree Days (CDD), precipitation level, oil consumption, gas consumption, household income, size of household, and also building stocks. In more detail, educational rate, dummy variable (removal of energy subsidy), and oil price reveal the greatest negative impact on the emissions with elasticities of − 0.428, − 0.31, and − 0.15; It represents 1% increase causes − 0.428, − 0.31, − 0.15, decrease CO2 emissions, respectively. however, household size, gas consumption, and oil consumption show the most significant positive effects on CO2 emissions with 1 percent increase causes CO2 emissions increases by 0.1, 0.044, and 0.026, respectively. Regarding the impact of climate factors, a 1% increase in Heating Degree Days, Cooling Degree Days, and precipitation level causes CO2 emissions increase by 0.024%, 0.004%, and 0.011% respectively, due to an increase in fossil energy demand. Results of the dynamic method of the system Generalized Method of Moments are similar to the static estimation results, except for that household size and urbanization are not significant. Also, removing the energy subsidy for fossil fuels due to substantial subsidy in fossil fuels in Iran or implementing a re-pricing energy policy can be a beneficial way to control carbon emissions from households within the provinces of the country. However, it is important to consider that this shift could potentially transfer subsidies to investments in the private sector for renewable energies.

Adding household surveys to the behavioral economics toolbox: insights from the SOEP innovation sample

While laboratory and field experiments are the major items in the toolbox of behavioral economists, household panel studies can complement them and expand their research potential. We introduce the German Socio-Economic Panel’s Innovation Sample (SOEP-IS), which offers researchers detailed panel data and the possibility to collect personalized experimental and survey data for free. We discuss what SOEP-IS can offer to behavioral economists and illustrate a set of design ideas with examples. Although we build our discussion on SOEP-IS, our purpose is to provide a guide that can be generalized to other household panel studies as well.

School truancy and welfare receipt dynamics in early adulthood: A longitudinal study

School truancy is associated with many negative life outcomes, including violent, property, and drug offending, lower levels of education, and subsequently lower status and lower-paying jobs. These negative life outcomes are also related to future reliance on government welfare payments. This research sought to identify how high school truancy affects young people's welfare receipt dynamics in emerging adulthood. It uses longitudinal data from a nationally representative household panel survey (the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey) to estimate the effect of truancy on young people's likelihood of receiving government-paid cash transfers in emerging adulthood. We find that young people who are truant are over four times more likely to receive cash transfers than young people who are not truant. Findings also show that the extent of truancy does not impact the likelihood of welfare receipt, even when differentiating between infrequent and problem truants. We conclude with some comments on truancy's role in welfare dynamics.

Regional catastrophic health expenditure and health inequality in China

BackgroundCatastrophic health expenditures (CHE) can trigger illness-caused poverty and compound poverty-caused illness. Our study is the first regional comparative study to analyze CHE trends and health inequality in eastern, central and western China, exploring the differences and disparities across regions to make targeted health policy recommendations.MethodsUsing data from China's Household Panel Study (CFPS), we selected Shanghai, Henan and Gansu as representative eastern-central-western regional provinces to construct a unique 5-year CHE unbalanced panel dataset. CHE incidence was measured by calculating headcount; CHE intensity was measured by overshoot and CHE inequality was estimated by concentration curves (CC) and the concentration index (CI). A random effect model was employed to analyze the impact of household head socio-economic characteristics, the household socio-economic characteristics and household health utilization on CHE incidence across the three regions.ResultsThe study found that the incidence and intensity of CHE decreased, but the degree of CHE inequality increased, across all three regions. For all regions, the trend of inequality first decreased and then increased. We also revealed significant differences across the eastern, central and western regions of China in CHE incidence, intensity, inequality and regional differences in the CHE influencing factors. Affected by factors such as the gap between the rich and the poor and the uneven distribution of medical resources, families in the eastern region who were unmarried, use supplementary medical insurance, and had members receiving outpatient treatment were more likely to experience CHE. Families with chronic diseases in the central and western regions were more likely to suffer CHE, and rural families in the western region were more likely to experience CHE.ConclusionsThe trends and causes of CHE varied across the different regions, which requires a further tilt of medical resources to the central and western regions; improved prevention and financial support for chronic diseases households; and reform of the insurance reimbursement policy of outpatient medical insurance. On a regional basis, health policy should not only address CHE incidence and intensity, but also its inequality.

Are housing circumstances associated with faster epigenetic ageing?

BackgroundNumerous aspects of housing are associated with health. However, the pathways between housing and health, particularly the psychosocial elements of housing, are less well understood. Epigenetic information alongside social survey...

Female education and marriage in Pakistan: The role of financial shocks and marital customs

This project aims to explore the effect of wealth shocks on education and marriage for young women in Pakistan. Financial shocks are used to estimate the probability of dropping out of education and into marriage. Using the Pakistan Rural Household Panel survey for the years 2000–10, the effects of financial shocks on the probability of dropping out of education and into marriage are estimated for boys and girls in rural areas. Second, the returns to education in the marriage market are estimated using information on marital payments of dowry and brideprice. Lastly, the intergenerational effects of women’s increased bargaining power due to marital assets is estimated. The results show wealth shocks do not have a gendered effect on school dropout. Also, adverse shocks during the teenage years do not increase the probability of early marriage. However, this relationship is negative in villages where marital payments are typically higher—that is, marriage costs can delay early marriage in shock-hit households as they are more credit-constrained. Lastly, higher educated women receive more marital assets, which can contribute to increased bargaining power within the marriage. This increased bargaining power also has intergenerational effects on children’s schooling.

The Impact of Age Difference on the Life Satisfaction of Wives in Specialized and Nonspecialized Households in Japan / Yaş Farkının Japonya’daki Uzmanlaşmış ve Uzmanlaşmamış Hanehalklarındaki Evli Kadınların Hayat Memnuniyetine Etkisi

Using panel data from the Keio Household Panel Survey (KHPS) between 2005 and 2018, this study examines the impact of age difference on wives' life satisfaction in Japan and how age difference affects wives' life satisfaction over the duration of marriage. Considering the specialization theory, the effect of age gap over time is also tested by dividing the sample by wives' employment status. The results of the pooled OLS estimation show that wives married to younger men are satisfied with their lives, while no significant finding is observed for wives married to older men. On the other hand, the fixed effects estimation findings reveal that life satisfaction of wives married to older men increases with years of marriage, while there is no significant finding for wives married to younger men. The results also show that housewives representing specialized households are more satisfied over time, while there are no significant results for working wives representing nonspecialized households. It is also shown that the life satisfaction of housewives married to older men increases as the length of the marriage increases and is always significant, even when alternative specification is used.

Determinants of the food insecurity at household level in Pakistan: A multilevel model approach.

Food insecurity is a major concern for the developing world and around 37% of the population of Pakistan is food insecure. This paper utilizes the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) to assess the population prevalence of food insecurity and to identify their risk factors and determinants at the household level in Pakistan. This study employs a multi-level random coefficient model, using the Pakistan Panel Household Survey (PPHS-2010) dataset; representative data from 4,130 households. Factors like; income of the household, gender, education, household size, land ownership, and shocks of food insecurity allow the incidence of idiosyncratic shocks (injuries and/or casualties) at the community level, which affects the food insecurity situation of the community, rather differently were included. The study confirms a statistically significant inverse relationship between household income, household size, and household head education with food insecurity and a positive association of shocks and inflation with food insecurity at the household level. Specifically, with increasing per capita income of the household, food insecurity declines (coefficient: -0.083, statistically significant at 1%) and food insecurity increases with shocks (coefficient: 0.058, statistically significant at 1% significance level). The study also reveals a significant heterogeneity at a one percent significance level in the determinants of food insecurity at the district, community, and household levels. The income of the household, household head gender and education level, household size, household assets, shocks, injuries, and inflationary pressure are important determinants of food insecurity in Pakistan.

Evolution of Inequality in Nigeria: a Tale of Falling Inequality, Rising Poverty, and Regional Heterogeneity

AbstractRecent research on Nigeria indicates declining income inequality. In contrast, anecdotal evidence suggests that only the upper class has benefited from economic growth in Nigeria over time. The disconnect between these findings and anecdotal evidence, and the limitation in how inequality was estimated in the past literature are the motivation for our research. First, we consider if inequality decreased in Nigeria between 2010 and 2018. We then examine how changes in inequality relate to changes in consumption and poverty. In addition, we examine whether there has been convergence in inequality and consumption across geopolitical regions over this period? Leveraging data from the four waves of the Nigeria General Household Panel Survey (GHS) and carefully measuring inequality in consumption expenditure using Gini, our results suggest that between 2010 and 2018, inequality decreased and median consumption expenditure increased. At the same time, poverty incidence and severity increased precipitously. Our findings also suggest convergence across regions over time in estimated within region Gini. In contrast, we find evidence of divergence across regions over time in median households’ consumption.

An evaluation of self-reported material well-being using latent Markov models with covariates.

A household's financial satisfaction is one of the most significant factors driving subjective well-being. However, Poland ranks close to the lowest position, 22nd out of the 28 EU members, in self-reported financial status. The paper investigates the problem of determining patterns of Polish households' behaviour and shows the evolution of the subjective assessment of financial situation based on the eight waves of the Polish Household panel data. The analysis is carried out on the basis of latent Markov (LM) models, which allow for socio-economic features affecting the parameters of the latent process. We compare different types of LM models considering: (1) different numbers of latent structures; (2) different types of the latent process constraints; (3) socio-economic background characteristics; and (4) survey weights (being excluded in most of the empirical analyses). The final model identifies three latent states, specifies common initial and transition probabilities over a 15-year period and, as a result, enables us to better characterise the families likely to change their position, especially families reporting worsening in their financial situation. To show the main direction of self-reporting financial condition, we present the predicted path for respondents characterised by the selected socio-economic features, relying on algorithm maximising posterior probabilities of the selected LM model.

Comparison of two approaches in multichannel sequence analysis using the Swiss Household Panel.

Sequence analysis is an established approach to study life courses. When several life domains are considered simultaneously, multichannel sequence analysis (MSA) and the extended alphabet (EA) approach are the most frequently used strategies. We compare these two methods using real data composed of four life domains (cohabitational status, children, professional status, health), and we focus on clustering since sequence analysis usually aims to identify typical patterns in sequences. As professional status trajectories, and potentially their relationship with other domains, proved to be different between men and women, the analyses were run separately by sex. We describe step by step the approach followed and the different criteria to judge the relevance of a typology. Neither of the two approaches is clearly superior, and the typologies obtained with both methods are often close. However, even if MSA is generally easier to use and applies to a broader range of situations, EA can provide original typologies in specific cases and we therefore propose guidelines for choosing between the two approaches depending on the context.

Unequal Duties and Unequal Retirement: Decomposing the Women's Labor Force Decline in Postreform China

The gender gap in labor force participation (LFP) in China has grown over the last 30 years, despite substantial advances in women's education and economic development. Previous research has identified gender discrimination and work–family conflicts as two key explanations for the gap, both of which have risen since the start of China's economic reform in 1978. Using multiple waves of the national census and household panel data from China, this research shows that one overlooked mechanism widening the LFP gender gap lies in the institutional constraints that require women to retire earlier than men. This research also demonstrates how the impact of women's early retirement on the LFP gender gap has been exacerbated by two societal-level changes: (1) population aging, which increased the share of women who reached the retirement age; and (2) economic development, which increased the number of women entering nonfarming occupations and, hence, the gender-based retirement system. These findings suggest that without significant revisions to China's retirement system, the LFP gender gap will continue to expand as the population ages and economic development proceeds.