Household Demographics Research Articles

Residential location choice modelling: a micro-simulation approach

Micro-simulation models have been increasingly used for studying various urban and regional processes. Here, two experimental microsimulation models are applied to the study of residential location choices of inhabitants of the Tabor micro-region. A wide range of environmental and socio-economic characteristics are analysed for their potential impact on individual residential location choices. The microsimulation approach proves to be useful for analysing not only housing, neighbourhood, and accessibility characteristics, but also of the interactions between the characteristics of the present and potential new residential locations of individual inhabitants and the role of their personal characteristics in their choice of a new residential location. The ability of the micro-simulation models to replicate the observed residential choices is evaluated by several quantitative indicators with special attention given to the stochasticity of the model behaviour, which is a typical feature of micro-simulation models. The limited availability of sufficiently disaggregated data describing the demographics of households, their socio-economic characteristics, and real estate market dynamics needs to be resolved in order to exploit the full potential of micro-simulation modelling in the future.

Women's land ownership and risk of HIV infection in Kenya

Theory predicts that land ownership empowers women to avoid HIV acquisition by reducing their reliance on risky survival sex and enhancing their ability to negotiate safer sex. However, this prediction has not been tested empirically. Using a sample of 5511 women working in the agricultural sector from the 1998, 2003 and 2008–09 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys, we examined the relationship between women's land ownership and participation in transactional sex, multiple sexual partnerships and unprotected sex, and HIV infection status. We controlled for demographic characteristics and household wealth, using negative binomial and logistic regression models. Women's land ownership was associated with fewer sexual partners in the past year (incidence rate ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.95–1.00) and lower likelihood of engaging in transactional sex (odds ratio [OR], 0.67; 95% CI: 0.46–0.99), indicators of reduced survival sex, but was not associated with unprotected sex with casual partners (OR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.35–1.18) or with unprotected sex with any partner among women with high self-perceived HIV risk (OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.57–1.84), indicating no difference in safer sex negotiation. Land ownership was also associated with reduced HIV infection among women most likely to engage in survival sex, i.e., women not under the household headship of a husband (OR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.18–0.89), but not among women living in husband-headed households, for whom increased negotiation for safer sex would be more relevant (OR, 1.74; 95% CI, 0.92–3.29). These findings suggest that reinforcing women's land rights may reduce reliance on survival sex and serve as a viable structural approach to HIV prevention, particularly for women not in a husband's household, including unmarried women and female household heads.

Babies, soft drinks and snacks: a concern in low- and middle-income countries?

Undernutrition in infants and young children is a global health priority while overweight is an emerging issue. Small‐scale studies in low‐ and middle‐income countries have demonstrated consumption of sugary and savoury snack foods and soft drinks by young children. We assessed the proportion of children 6–23 months of age consuming sugary snack foods in 18 countries in Asia and Africa using data from selected Demographic and Health Surveys and household expenditures on soft drinks and biscuits using data from four Living Standards Measurement Studies (LSMS). Consumption of sugary snack foods increased with the child's age and household wealth, and was generally higher in urban vs. rural areas. In one‐third of countries, >20% of infants 6–8 months consumed sugary snacks. Up to 75% of Asian children and 46% of African children consumed these foods in the second year of life. The proportion of children consuming sugary snack foods was generally higher than the proportion consuming fortified infant cereals, eggs or fruit. Household per capita daily expenditures on soft drinks ranged from $0.03 to $0.11 in three countries for which LSMS data were available, and from $0.01 to $0.04 on biscuits in two LSMS. Future surveys should include quantitative data on the purchase and consumption of snack foods by infants and young children, using consistent definitions and methods for identifying and categorising snack foods across surveys. Researchers should assess associations between snack food consumption and stunting and overweight, and characterise household, maternal and child characteristics associated with snack food consumption.

Health and human rights in eastern Myanmar prior to political transition: a population-based assessment using multistaged household cluster sampling.

BackgroundMyanmar/Burma has received increased development and humanitarian assistance since the election in November 2010. Monitoring the impact of foreign assistance and economic development on health and human rights requires knowledge of pre-election conditions.MethodsFrom October 2008-January 2009, community-based organizations conducted household surveys using three-stage cluster sampling in Shan, Kayin, Bago, Kayah, Mon and Tanintharyi areas of Myanmar. Data was collected from 5,592 heads of household on household demographics, reproductive health, diarrhea, births, deaths, malaria, and acute malnutrition of children 6–59 months and women aged 15–49 years. A human rights focused survey module evaluated human rights violations (HRVs) experienced by household members during the previous year.ResultsEstimated infant and under-five rates were 77 (95% CI 56 to 98) and 139 (95% CI 107 to 171) deaths per 1,000 live births; and the crude mortality rate was 13 (95% CI 11 to 15) deaths per thousand persons. The leading respondent-reported cause of death was malaria, followed by acute respiratory infection and diarrhea, causing 21.2% (95% CI 16.5 to 25.8), 16.6% (95% CI 11.8 to 21.4), and 12.3% (95% CI 8.7 to 15.8), respectively. Over a third of households suffered at least one human rights violation in the preceding year (36.2%; 30.7 to 41.7). Household exposure to forced labor increased risk of death among infants (rate ratio (RR) = 2.2; 95% CI 1.1 to 4.4) and children under five (RR = 2.1; 95% CI 1.3 to 3.6). The proportion of children suffering from moderate to severe acute malnutrition was higher among households that were displaced (prevalence ratio (PR) = 3.3; 95% CI 1.9 to 5.6).ConclusionsPrior to the 2010 election, populations of eastern Myanmar experienced high rates of disease and death and high rates of HRVs. These population-based data provide a baseline that can be used to monitor national and international efforts to improve the health and human rights situation in the region.

Health care utilization for acute illnesses in an urban setting with a refugee population in Nairobi, Kenya: a cross-sectional survey.

BackgroundEstimates place the number of refugees in Nairobi over 100,000. The constant movement of refugees between countries of origin, refugee camps, and Nairobi poses risk of introduction and transmission of communicable diseases into Kenya. We assessed the care-seeking behavior of residents of Eastleigh, a neighborhood in Nairobi with urban refugees.MethodsDuring July and August 2010, we conducted a Health Utilization Survey in Section II of Eastleigh. We used a multistage random cluster sampling design to identify households for interview. A standard questionnaire on the household demographics, water and sanitation was administered to household caretakers. Separate questionnaires were administered to household members who had one or more of the illnesses of interest.ResultsOf 785 households targeted for interview, data were obtained from 673 (85.7%) households with 3,005 residents. Of the surveyed respondents, 290 (9.7%) individuals reported acute respiratory illness (ARI) in the previous 12 months, 222 (7.4%) reported fever in the preceding 2 weeks, and 54 (1.8%) reported having diarrhea in the 30 days prior to the survey. Children <5 years old had the highest frequency of all the illnesses surveyed: 17.1% (95% CI 12.2-21.9) reported ARI, 10.0% (95% CI 6.2-13.8) reported fever, and 6.9% (3.8-10.0) reported diarrhea during the time periods specified for each syndrome. Twenty-nine [7.5% (95% CI 4.3-10.7)] hospitalizations were reported among all age groups of those who sought care. Among participants who reported ≥1 illness, 330 (77.0%) sought some form of health care; most (174 [59.8%]) sought health care services from private health care providers. Fifty-five (18.9%) participants seeking healthcare services visited a pharmacy. Few residents of Eastleigh (38 [13.1%]) sought care at government-run facilities, and 24 (8.2%) sought care from a relative, a religious leader, or a health volunteer. Of those who did not seek any health care services (99 [23.0%]), the primary reason was cost (44.8%), followed by belief that the person was not sick enough (34.6%).ConclusionHealth care utilization in Eastleigh is high; however, a large proportion of residents opt to seek care at private clinics or pharmacies, despite the availability of accessible government-provided health care services in this area.

California energy efficiency: Lessons for the rest of the world, or not?

Since the 1970s California's residential electricity consumption per capita has stopped increasing while other states’ electricity use continued to grow steadily. What accounts for California's apparent savings? Some credit the strict energy efficiency standards for buildings and appliances enacted by California in the mid-1970s. They argue that the growing gap between California and other states demonstrates that other states and countries could replicate California's gains by adopting California-style regulations, and that California should build on its own success by tightening its standards further. Skeptics might point to three long-run trends that differentiate California's electricity demand from other states: (1) shifting of the U.S. population toward warmer climates of the South and West; (2) relatively small income elasticity of energy demand in California's temperate climate; and (3) evolving differences between the demographics of households in California and other states. Today, differences in climate and demographics account for almost 90 percent of the difference between California's and other states’ residential electricity use. That difference thus provides no lessons for other states or countries considering adopting or tightening their own energy efficiency standards.

Predictors of driving among families living within 2 km from school: Exploring the role of the built environment

Rates of active school travel have declined over time in line with decreasing levels of physical activity among children. Understanding why some children are driven to school when walking is an option is important for future intervention. The purpose of this study was to evaluate demographic characteristics, parent/family level factors, attitudinal and psychosocial factors, route features, access to vehicles, and environmental factors which appear to influence the decision to drive children who live within a walkable distance from school in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), Canada. Computer-aided telephone interviews were conducted in 2009 with 1001 parents of children attending elementary school in the GTHA, Canada׳s largest urbanized region. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine the household demographics, parent/family factors, attitudinal and psychosocial factors, route features, access to vehicles, and environmental factors (qualities of urban design) that predict driving among households less than 2km away from school (n=529). In the GTHA, attitudes and psychosocial factors have a stronger role to play than the built environment in influencing driving behavior within close proximity to school. The introduction of built environment characteristics in the final regression model only explained an additional 4% of the variance in driving to school. To promote AST among drivers living within a walkable distance from school, non-infrastructure programs that provide adult supervision, such as Walking School Bus Schemes, may be a more powerful strategy to alleviate safety concerns while potentially reducing the parental time costs of escorting the child, than capital projects targeting changes to the built environment.

Coping with Food Insecurity on a Micro-Scale: Evidence from Ethiopian Rural Households

This article examines the main household demographics and economic factors associated with food insecurity and coping behavior of rural households employed during times of food shortages in northern Ethiopia. Using a cost-of-basic-needs approach we estimated the food poverty line. This cut-off value was used to classify households as either food secure or insecure. Then empirical analyses were used, based on respectively a logit regression model and a coping strategy index. The estimated results revealed that household size, size of farm land, livestock ownership, frequency of extension services, and proximity to basic infrastructures are associated with the food security status of farming households in the study area. Moreover, households relied largely on consumption-based coping strategies when faced with food shortages.

A multilevel regression approach to understand effects of environment indicators and household features on residential energy consumption

Modeling residential energy consumption survey (RECS) data is a complex socio-technical problem that involves macroeconomics, climate, physical characteristics of housing, household demographics and usage of appliances. A multilevel regression (MR) model is introduced to calculate the magnitude and significance of effects of environment indicators and household features on residential energy consumption (REC). MR helps construct a conceptual framework and organize explanatory variables. The benefit of this approach is that based on stratified sampling schemes, MR extracts area effects from total variations of REC and explains the remaining variations with manifest variables and their interactions. Using the US 2009 RECS micro data consisting of 10,838 unique cases, 26 primary determinants of REC are found to be division groups, housing type, house size, usage of space heating equipment, household size and use of air-conditioning, etc. MR helps to quantify 82% of area effects and 47% of household effects. Proportion of the overall explained variance proportion is 53% compared to <40% using OLS regression models.

Reliable direct measurement of causes of death in low- and middle-income countries.

BackgroundMost of the 48 million annual deaths in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) occur without medical attention at the time of death so that the causes of death (COD) are largely unknown. A review of low-cost methods of obtaining nationally representative COD data is timely.DiscussionDespite clear historic evidence of their usefulness, most LMICs lack reliable nationally representative COD data. Indirect methods to estimate COD for most countries are inadequate, mainly because they currently rely on an average ratio of 1 nationally representative COD to every 850 estimated deaths in order to measure the cause of 25 million deaths across 110 LMICs. Direct measurement of COD is far more reliable and relevant for country priorities. Five feasible methods to expand COD data are: sample registration systems (which form the basis for the ongoing Million Death Study in India; MDS); strengthening the INDEPTH network of 42 demographic surveillance sites; adding retrospective COD surveys to the demographic household and health surveys in 90 countries; post-census retrospective mortality surveys; and for smaller countries, systematic assembly of health records. Lessons learned from the MDS, especially on low-cost, high-quality methods of verbal autopsy, paired with emerging use of electronic data capture and other innovations, can make COD systems low-cost and relevant for a wide range of childhood and adult conditions.SummaryLow-cost systems to obtain and report CODs are possible. If implemented widely, COD systems could identify disease control priorities, help detect emerging epidemics, enable evaluation of disease control programs, advance indirect methods, and improve the accountability for expenditures of disease control programs.

Household Emergency Preparedness by Housing Type from a Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER), Michigan

We examined the association between housing type and household emergency preparedness among households in Oakland County, Michigan. We used interview data on household emergency preparedness from a cluster design survey in Oakland County, Michigan, in 2012. We compared survey-weighted frequencies of household demographics, medical conditions, and preparedness measures in single-detached homes versus multi-unit dwellings, and determined the unadjusted odds ratios (OR) and the income-level adjusted OR for each preparedness measure. Households had similar demographics and medical conditions between housing types. Unadjusted ORs were statistically significant for single detached homes having a generator (11.1), back-up heat source (10.9), way to cook without utilities (5.8), carbon monoxide (CO) detector (3.8), copies of important documents (3.4), evacuation routes (3.1), and 3-day supply of water (2.5). Income level adjusted ORs remained statistically significant except for owning a CO detector. Households in multi-unit dwellings were less likely to have certain recommended emergency plans and supplies compared to those in single detached homes. Further research is required to explore the feasibility, barriers, and alternatives for households in multi-unit dwellings in terms of complying with these measures.

Caregiver burden among adults caring for orphaned children in rural South Africa

The AIDS epidemic has created an unprecedented number of orphans. While largely absorbed by extended family, this additional responsibility can weigh heavily on their caregivers. The concept of caregiver burden captures multiple dimensions of well-being (e.g., physical, social and psychological). Measuring the extent and determinants of caregiving burden can inform the design of programmes to ease the negative consequences of caregiving. This study uses the baseline data from a study assessing interventions for orphans and vulnerable adolescents in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. Orphan caregivers (n = 726) completed an adapted version of the 12-item Zarit Burden Interview. In addition to basic caregiver and household demographics, the survey also collected information on AIDS-related illness and recent deaths. Descriptive data are presented, followed by multivariate Poisson regression models to explore factors associated with caregiver burden. Approximately 40% of caregivers reported high levels of orphan caregiving burden. Feelings of stress and inadequacy concerning their care responsibilities as well as anger towards the child were common. Household food insecurity was the most important predictor of orphan caregiving burden (marginal effect = 7.82; p < 0.001 for those reporting severe hunger); income was also a significant determinant. When other AIDS impacts were added to the model, only the AIDS-related illness of the caregiver was significantly associated with burden (marginal effect = 3.77; p < 0.001). This study suggests that caregivers with economic vulnerability and those struggling with their own AIDS-related illness feel most overburdened. These findings are particularly relevant to service providers who must identify caregivers in need of immediate assistance and allocate limited resources effectively. To alleviate caregiver burden, programmes must foster greater economic security (e.g., by facilitating access to social grants or directly providing cash transfers) and coordinate services with home-based care programmes serving the chronically ill.

Epidemiologic investigation of tuberculosis in a Mexican population from Chihuahua State, Mexico: a pilot study

Tuberculosis (TB) and its co-morbid conditions have become a burden on global health economies. It is well understood that susceptibility of the host to TB infection/disease is influenced by both genetic and environmental factors and their interactions. The aims of this pilot case-control study are to characterize the sociodemographic and environmental factors related to active TB disease (TB/case) and latent TB infection (LTBI/control) status, and to identify risk factors associated with progression from LTBI to TB. We recruited 75 cases with TB (mean age=46.3y; females=41%) and 75 controls with LTBI (mean age=39.0y; females=37%), from the Mestizo population of Cuidad Juárez, Mexico. In addition to the determination of case/control status, information on environmental variables was collected (e.g., socioeconomic status, smoking, alcohol consumption, substance abuse, nutritional status, household demographics, medical histories and presence of type 2 diabetes [T2DM]). The data were analyzed to identify the environmental correlates of TB and LTBI using univariate and multivariate statistical approaches. Following multivariate logistic regression analysis, TB was associated with poor nutrition, T2DM, family history of TB, and non-Chihuahua state of birth. These preliminary findings have relevance to TB control at the Mexico-United States border, and contribute to our future genetic study of TB in Mexicans.

The policy of free healthcare for children under the age of 6 years in Vietnam: assessment of the uptake for children hospitalised with acute diarrhoea in Ho Chi Minh City

ObjectiveTo assess the proportion of, and reasons for, households not utilising the policy of free healthcare for children under 6 years of age (FCCU6) for hospitalisation with diarrhoea, and assess the risk of catastrophic expenditure for households that forgo FCCU6 and pay out of pocket.MethodsInvoices detailing insurance information and charges incurred from 472 hospitalised diarrhoeal cases in one paediatric hospital in Ho Chi Minh City were retrieved. Hospital charges and the utilisation of elective services were analysed for patients utilising and not utilising FCCU6. Associations between socio-economic factors with non-utilisation of FCCU6 were evaluated.ResultsOverall, 29% of patients were FCCU6 non-users. The FCCU6 non-users paid a median hospital charge of $29.13 (interquartile range, IQR: $18.57–46.24), consuming no more than 1.4% of a medium-income household's annual income. Seventy per cent of low-income FCCU6 non-users utilised less-expensive elective services, whereas only 43% of medium income patients and 21% of high-income patients did (P = 0.036). Patients from larger households and those with a parent working in government were more likely to use FCCU6.ConclusionsThe rate of FCCU6 non-usage in this study population was 29%. A significant proportion of those that did not use FCCU6 was from lower income households and may perceive a justifiable cost–benefit ratio when forgoing FCCU6. Although a single diarrhoeal hospitalisation is unlikely to induce a catastrophic expenditure, FCCU6 non-usage may disproportionately increase the risk of catastrophic expenditure for lower income households over multiple illnesses.

Estimating Willingness to Pay for Improved Stoves in Rural China Using Averting Behavior Method

Indoor air pollution (IAP) is a leading health risk factor for rural households in developing countries (Ezzati, et al, 2002). The combination of heavy reliance on solid fuel (biomass and coal) and low efficiency stoves, together with poor ventilation, results in dangerous levels of pollutants in the form of gases and suspended particulates (Smith, 1999). It accounts for more than 500,000 deaths annually in China, and ranks as the fourth most important cause of loss of a healthy life (DALYs) in developing countries (Ezzati and Baris ed. 2007). Women and children are particularly affected by IAP, as normally they are in the cooking area or home environment much longer than other family members. During 2002-2006, the World Bank and Government of China tested affordable household energy technologies and behavioral interventions designed to substantially reduce IAP and exposure to it and, thereby, to lower the associated health risks (Ezzati and Baris ed, 2007). This paper uses the household level data collected during the World Bank/Chinese Government project to estimate rural households’ willingness to pay for improved stoves to avoid health risks due to indoor air pollution. The estimates indicate how household demographics, income, education, and health history affect households’ willingness to pay (WTP) for improved stoves using a probit model. Presence of children 5 and younger and participation in health education activities are major factors associated with greater WTP for improved stoves. These estimates appear to be a first for determining WTP for averting IAP related health risks in rural China.

Microbial quality of drinking water from groundtanks and tankers at source and point-of-use in eThekwini Municipality, South Africa, and its relationship to health outcomes

Drinking water quality was investigated at source and corresponding point-of-use in 2 peri-urban areas receiving drinking water either by communal water tanker or by delivery directly from the distribution system to household-based groundtanks with taps. Water quality variables measured were heterotrophic bacteria, total coliforms, E. coli, conductivity, turbidity, pH, and total and residual chlorine. Water quality data were analysed together with an existing epidemiological database to investigate links between microbial quality of drinking water, household demographics, health outcomes, socio-economic status, hygiene and sanitation practices. Groundtank households had better quality drinking water than households using storage containers filled from communal tankers. Uncovered storage containers had the poorest microbial water quality among all storage containers. All stored water did not meet drinking water standards, although mains water did. Households with children under 5 years and using open-topped containers had the poorest water quality overall. Households with groundtanks had the best water quality at point-of-use, but did not have the lowest occurrence of health effects. Although groundtanks were supplied together with urine diversion (UD) toilets and hygiene education, groundtank households showed overall poorer hygiene practices than tanker-supplied households, and some groundtank households with UD toilets preferred to continue using open defecation. Households that practised open defecation had higher levels of E. coli in their drinking water and higher rates of adverse health outcomes. Poorer socio-economic standing and lower educational standard were associated with poorer water quality, poorer hygiene practices and higher rates of diarrhoea and vomiting.Keywords: drinking water; point of use; water quality; water quantity; hygiene; sanitation

Health literacy, socioeconomic status and self-rated health in Japan

Health literacy (HL) is a key determinant of health in a contemporary society characterized by abundant information. Previous studies have suggested that basic or functional HL is positively associated with health, whereas evidences on the association between health and communicative/critical HL are scarce. Furthermore, confounding by socioeconomic status on HL-health association has been poorly tested. Using cross-sectional data from a nationally representative community-based survey in Japan, we investigated whether communicative/critical HL is associated with self-rated health independent of socioeconomic status. A total of 1237 subjects participated in this study; the response rate was 62%. To measure communicative/critical HL, we used three questions assessing the respondents' ability to select, to communicate to others and to evaluate specific health-related information. Potential confounders included demographic factors, household income, employment status, and educational attainment. A multivariate model revealed that good self-reported health was significantly associated with younger age [odds ratio (OR), 0.99; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.97-0.99], employment (OR, 2.89; 95% CI, 1.06-7.88) and higher communicative/critical HL scores (OR 2.75; 95%CI, 1.93-3.90). Respondents with lower education were likely to have poorer communicative/critical HL. These results imply that to close the health gap, policy interventions should focus on the promotion of HL among deprived sociodemographic groups.

가족의 인구통계적 특성별 국내 가족관광 참여에 대한 차이 분석

Families form the consumer base of travel market and the family travel patterns are highly dependent on family characteristics. It is therefore crucial to gain a better understanding of the impact of family characteristics on family travel participation. But tourist research has rarely taken notice of family travel participation in Korea. Taking an empirical perspective, this paper examines family tourism participation by Korean household demographics characteristics and derive implications to improve the domestic tourism using 2011 Korea National Tourism Survey data. As the results of analysis, there are significant difference in the total number of family travel days and expenditure by the size of the municipality where the household is located. And there are significant difference in the number of family travels, the total number of family travel days and expenditure by family income and the overall number of family members.

A comparative study of attitudes and preferences for water efficiency in homes

Water efficiency is the optimised use of water commensurate to need. Achieving water efficiency has, in the last decade, become an increasingly important part of policy programmes to ensure resource resilience and future supply. This study originated from a growing body of literature which purports differences in environmental behaviour in urban and rural residents. It presents initial findings from surveys conducted in two communities in Sussex, England. The objective of the study was to investigate and compare collective views on water efficiency by comparing users in different geographical contexts. The survey conducted in a rural and urban community started with the general assessment of basic household demographics and characteristics before investigating both water and energy use. Questions include factors that encourage or discourage water efficiency behaviour, views on information-led water efficiency interventions and limitations to the adoption of water efficient technologies. The paper concludes by discussing the differences and similarities found and the extent to which the findings are usable in water efficiency policies and processes, although it is worth highlighting that this study is the first set of a series of studies and is limited in its breadth.

Has U.S. Home Ownership Reached Bottom Yet? Evidence from Pre and Post-Bubble Household Tenure Choice

In the summer of 2006, U.S. national home price peaked, and simultaneously the U.S. home ownership rate also reached its highest level in history. Ever since then, the U.S. home ownership rate has shown steady decline, as some households are foreclosed out of their homes, and some households are discouraged to own their own homes. Now home price has shown strong rebound since December 2012, would home ownership start to rebound as well? This paper tries to answer that question and forecasts the U.S. home ownership, using an empirical household tenure choice model. The analysis is conducted in two stages. First, we estimate a reduced form logistic model for household tenure choice on data extracted from the U.S. Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Micro-level monthly data of approximately 70,000 households over 8 years is used to conduct this empirical estimation. Second, the model is fed with macroeconomic scenario forecasts, e.g. interest rate, house price, unemployment rates, etc. to predict the future household tenure choice, and eventually forecast the home ownership rate. Overall, we find tenure choice is significantly influenced by household demographics, socioeconomic characteristics, macroeconomic variables, and policy variables, such as income tax rate and property tax rate. Furthermore, we find U.S. home ownership rate will rise under the most likely economic scenario. However, under stressful scenarios, home ownership rate could still decrease. The importance of this research to housing policy is two-fold: first, it estimates the marginal response of household tenure choice to policy variables so policymakers can better understand the impact of those policies on household behavior; second, it offers a baseline and possible deviations of home ownership forecast, which can be used as benchmarks for future housing policy decision.