Hostile Targets Research Articles

Aggregating conclusive and inconclusive information: Data and a model based on the assessment of threat

AbstractThis study examined the process of combining conclusive and inconclusive information using a Naval threat assessment simulation. On each of 36 trials, participants interrogated 10 pieces of information (e.g., speed, direction, bearing, etc.) about “targets” in a simulated radar space. The number of hostile, peaceful, and inconclusive cues was factorially varied across targets. Three models were developed to understand how inconclusive information is used in the judgment of threat. According to one model, inconclusive information is ignored and the judgment of threat is based only on the conclusive information. According to a second model, the amount of dominant conclusive information is normalized by all of the available information. Finally, according to a third model, inconclusive information is partitioned under the assumption that it equally represents both dominant and non‐dominant evidence. In Experiment 1, the data of novices (i.e., civilians) were best described by a model that assumes a partitioning of inconclusive evidence. This result was replicated in a second experiment involving variation of the global threat context. In a third experiment involving experts (i.e., Canadian Navy officers), the data of half of the participants were best described by the partitioning model and the data of the other half were best described by the normalizing model. In Experiments 1 and 2, the presence of inconclusive information produced a “dilution effect”, whereby hostile (peaceful) targets were judged as less hostile (peaceful) than the predictions of the Partitioning model. The dilution effect was not evident in the judgments of the Navy officers. Copyright © 2009 Crown in the right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The influence of stereotypes on decisions to shoot

AbstractUsing a videogame to simulate encounters with potentially hostile targets, three studies tested a model in which racial bias in shoot/don't‐shoot decisions reflects accessibility of the stereotype linking Blacks to danger. Study 1 experimentally manipulated the race‐danger association by asking participants to read newspaper stories about Black (vs. White) criminals. As predicted, exposure to stories concerning Black criminals increased bias in the decision to shoot. Studies 2 and 3 manipulated the number of White and Black targets with and without guns in the context of the videogame itself. As predicted, frequent presentation of stereotypic (vs. counterstereotypic) targets exacerbated bias (Study 2) and—consistent with our process account—rendered stereotypes more accessible (Study 3). Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The impact of acquisitions on firm performance: A review of the evidence

This paper presents a review of empirical research on the impact of acquisitions on firm performance. The evidence suggests that, in the short run, acquisitions have at best an insignificant impact on shareholder wealth. Long‐run performance analysis reveals overwhelmingly negative returns, while the evidence using accounting performance measures is mixed. The review also examines the impact of bid characteristics on performance. The acquisition of hostile targets, transactions that are paid for with cash and acquisitions of larger targets are associated with superior (or at least less negative) performance, while there is mixed evidence on the benefits of related acquisitions. A number of recent studies find that acquirers with superior pre‐bid performance tend to experience significant underperformance in the post‐bid period.

A mathematical framework to optimize ATR systems with non-declarations and sensor fusion

Combat identification is one example where incorrect automatic target recognition (ATR) output labels may have substantial decision costs. For example, the incorrect labeling of hostile targets vs. friendly non-targets may have high costs; yet, these costs are difficult to quantify. One way to increase decision confidence is through fusion of data from multiple sources or from multiple looks through time. Numerous methods have been published to determine a Bayes’ optimal fusion decision if decision costs are well known. This research presents a novel mathematical programming ATR evaluation framework. A new objective function inclusive of time is introduced to optimize and compare ATR systems. Constraints are developed to enforce both decision maker preferences and traditional engineering measures of performance. This research merges rejection and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis by incorporating rejection and ROC thresholds as decision variables. The rejection thresholds specify non-declaration regions, while the ROC thresholds explore viable true positive and false positive tradeoffs for output target labels. This methodology yields an optimal ATR system subject to decision maker constraints without using explicit costs for each type of output decision. A sample application is included for the fusion of two channels of collected polarized radar data for 10 different ground targets. A Boolean logic and probabilistic neural network fusion method are optimized and compared. Sensitivity analysis of significant performance parameters then reveals preferred regions for each of the fusion algorithms.

VigilNet

This article describes one of the major efforts in the sensor network community to build an integrated sensor network system for surveillance missions. The focus of this effort is to acquire and verify information about enemy capabilities and positions of hostile targets. Such missions often involve a high element of risk for human personnel and require a high degree of stealthiness. Hence, the ability to deploy unmanned surveillance missions, by using wireless sensor networks, is of great practical importance for the military. Because of the energy constraints of sensor devices, such systems necessitate an energy-aware design to ensure the longevity of surveillance missions. Solutions proposed recently for this type of system show promising results through simulations. However, the simplified assumptions they make about the system in the simulator often do not hold well in practice, and energy consumption is narrowly accounted for within a single protocol. In this article, we describe the design and implementation of a complete running system, called VigilNet, for energy-efficient surveillance. The VigilNet allows a group of cooperating sensor devices to detect and track the positions of moving vehicles in an energy-efficient and stealthy manner. We evaluate VigilNet middleware components and integrated system extensively on a network of 70 MICA2 motes. Our results show that our surveillance strategy is adaptable and achieves a significant extension of network lifetime. Finally, we share lessons learned in building such an integrated sensor system.

Takeover Prediction Models and Portfolio Strategies: A Multinomial Approach

This paper uses a multinomial framework to develop several takeover prediction models. The motivation for this approach lies with Morck, Shleifer and Vishny (1988), who note that separate considerations are appropriate for predicting which firms are subject to hostile (disciplinary) and friendly (synergistic) takeovers in the USA. In a typical binomial setting, in which takeover targets are treated as belonging to one homogenous group, differences between hostile and friendly targets are ignored. This may result in biased takeover probabilities and poor predictive performance. Using UK data, the results from this paper show that the characteristics of hostile and friendly targets do differ, particularly in terms of firm size. The multinomial models also have higher significance and explanatory power when compared to the binomial models. Furthermore, when the models are tested in an investment portfolio setting, the results suggest that a strategy of predicting hostile targets only, beats a benchmark control portfolio of firms of a similar size and market-to-book.

Characteristics of Hostile and Friendly Takeover Targets: Comment

The paper by Morck, Shleifer, and Vishny contributes significantly to our knowledge of the takeover process. The authors conclude that the motive for friendly acquisitions is more likely to be synergistic, whereas in hostile ones it is more likely to be disciplinary. Hostile targets were older, slow growing firms that were investing a smaller fraction of earnings than the average firm in the sample and whose capital was valued by the market at less than half its replacement cost-all of which is consistent with the theory of the agency costs of free cash, which predicts that managers will generally disinvest too slowly. I agree with the authors' conclusions, but there are a number of things the authors did not examine that would have considerably improved our understanding of the issues. The authors did not consider takeover attempts that were unsuccessful, that is, attempts in which the target firm remained independent. Their conclusions apply only to friendly or hostile acquisition targets that were eventually taken over. The authors therefore missed an opportunity to tell us something about firms that were more likely to fail at a friendly deal or more likely to successfully fight off a hostile offer.

A genetic algorithm with domain knowledge for weapon‐target assignment problems

In this paper, a novel genetic algorithm, including domain specific knowledge into the crossover operator and the local search mechanism for solving weapon‐target assignment (WTA) problems is proposed. The WTA problem is a full assignment of weapons to hostile targets with the objective of minimizing the expected damage value to own‐force assets. It is an NP‐complete problem. In our study, a greedy reformation and a new crossover operator are proposed to improve the search efficiency. The proposed algorithm outperforms its competitors on all test problems.

Shield and sword: the United States Navy and the Persian Gulf War

Essential reading as part of the Chief of Naval Operation's Professional Reading Program!Though not so well known as the land and air campaigns, the campaign at sea in the 1991 Gulf War was vital in subduing Saddam Hussein's invasion forces and driving them out of Kuwait. U.S. Navy surface ships and submarines launched hundreds of cruise missile attacks against Iraqi targets throughout the war, and carriers sent air strikes deep into enemy territory. The battleships Missouri and Wisconsin bombarded hostile targets while U.S. sailors joined U.S. Army and Royal Navy helicopter crews in additional actions. SEAL missions, global sealift actions, mine countermeasures, and operations in support of the economic embargo were still more contributing factors to the complex joint warfare effort.Details of these naval operations are thoroughly documented and analyzed in this authoritative study, conducted by the Naval Historical Center and published in limited numbers in 1999. It is based on previously classified action and lessons-learned reports, interviews with participants, and studies conducted by the Center for Naval Analyses and the Department of Defense. The book includes candid evaluations of leadership effectiveness, interservice relations, and methods of command and control. It also analyses the effectiveness of various weapons and sensors, including the Tomahawk land-attack missile, the EA-6B Prowler electronic warfare aircraft, the Aegis battle management system, and unmanned aerial vehicles. Winner of the Navy League's Theodore and Franklin D. Roosevelt Naval History Prize and favorably reviewed by military scholars and foreign affairs journals, this credible historical account captures the drama as well as the detail of a modern victory at sea.

Takeover Likelihood Models for UK Quoted Companies

This paper estimates takeover likelihood models for UK quoted companies. For a sample of 643 UK nonfinancial quoted companies over the period 1989-96, we find that the probability of being a takeover target is increasing in leverage and incidence of takeover speculation and decreasing in pre-bid performance, size and age since listing. Friendly and hostile targets differ in terms of age, size and capital structure, but not pre-bid performance. Lapsed and successful takeover targets differ in terms of size and age. Overall, the evidence here is consistent with a disciplinary view of hostile takeovers, while for friendly takeovers it is consistent with financial distress, financial synergy, going-public-to-sell-out and managerialist motivations.

Board composition, ownership structure and hostile takeovers: some UK evidence

This paper examines the relationship between internal and external control mechanisms in a sample of hostile takeover targets and a control group of non-target firms in the UK for the period 1989–93. The paper investigates whether there are significant differences in board composition, executive ownership and external shareholder control between the two groups. We find that hostile targets are more likely to have different individuals in the roles of chairman and CEO but employ non-executives with fewer additional directorships than non-targets. Executive share ownership is significantly lower in targets, suggesting that hostile bids are more likely to be pursued when target managers possess insufficient equity either to defeat the bid or make the bid too expensive for bidders. We find some evidence that institutional and unaffiliated blockholders in smaller targets help managers defeat unwanted bids.

Internal versus External Control: An Analysis of Board Composition and Ownership in UK Takeovers

This paper examines the relationship between board composition, ownership structure and takeovers in the UK in the period 1989–1993. We compare board composition and ownership characteristics for a sample of 166 takeover targets with a matched sample of nontarget firms. We further disaggregate our sample depending on target management's attitude to the bid as well as the eventual outcome of the bid. We find little difference between board composition and ownership structure between all targets and the control group of nontargets. However, when we disaggregate the samples, we find that hostile targets are more likely to have different individuals in the role of chairman and CEO, and exhibit significantly lower levels of managerial ownership compared to both the control group of nontargets and targets of friendly takeovers. We also find that managerial ownership is positively related to takeover success. Overall, our results support the findings of a number of recent studies in the US by highlighting the important role managerial share ownership plays in the takeover process.

Takeover Bid Resistance and the Managerial Welfare Hypothesis: Evidence from the Canadian Market

AbstractManagers of publicly held corporations have important fiduciary responsibilities towards their shareholders. In order to protect their own interests, they may put aside these duties when their firm is the target of a takeover bid. Walkling and Long (1984) used the takeover market to study managerial behavior, and to infer which interests managers protect by their opposition. They concluded in favor of the managerial welfare hypothesis. We extended the Walkling and Long model to include the context in which the transaction takes place, as it may significantly affect management's behavior. Variables such as competing bids, prior negotiations with the target's management, and financial performance provided additional empirical support for the managerial welfare hypothesis.RésuméLes dirigeants des sociétés ouvertes ont d'importantes responsabilités de fiduciaires face à leurs actionnaires. Toutefois, de façon à protéger leurs intérěts personnels, ils mettent de cǒtéleur rǒle de fiduciaire lorsque leur entreprise fait l'objet d'une prise de contrǒle. Walkling et Long (1984) ont utiliséle marchédes prises de contrǒle pour étudier le comportement des gestionnaires, de façon à déterminer quels intérěts étaient protégés par leur opposition à une offre publique. Ils ont conclu que les dirigeants privilégiaient leurs intérěts personnels. Dans cette étude, nous ajoutons au modèle de Walkling et Long des variables décrivant le contexte dans lequel s'est développée l'offre publique, étant donnéqu'elles peuvent avoir une influence significative sur les dirigeants. Des variables telles que la présence d'offres concurrentes, des négociations préalables avec les membres de la hautedirection de l'entreprise visée et la performance financière de la sociétévisée, fournissent des résultats empiriques supplémentaires en faveur de l'hypothèse à l'effet que les dirigeants protègent leurs intérěts personnels.

Board composition, ownership structure, and hostile takeovers

This paper examines whether differences in the structure of the board of directors and equity ownership contribute to the incidence of hostile takeovers. Evidence from a sample of completed and abandoned hostile takeover attempts that occurred during 1980–1988 indicates that, relative to a control sample, outside directors in hostile targets have lower ownership stakes and hold fewer additional outside directorships. Ownership by blockholders unaffiliated with management raises and that by affiliated blockholders decreases the likelihood of a hostile takeover attempt. These results suggest that the board of directors and hostile takeovers are substitute mechanisms and that unaffiliated blockholdings and hostile takeovers are complementary mechanisms for corporate control.

JTIDS relative navigation and data registration

The Joint Tactical Information Distribution System (JTIDS), an integrated communication, navigation, and identification system, provides a solution to the critical data registration problem facing the joint US military services today, namely, the establishment, in real-time, of accurately correlated positions and tracks for all friendly, unknown, and hostile targets in an operational area, thus providing the total situation awareness required for tactical and C/sup 2/ operations. The fundamental relationships of JTIDS navigation and the error analysis for target registration and target hand-off in both geodetic and relative grid coordinates are presented. Simulation results are provided for two scenarios to demonstrate the level of improvement that JTIDS navigation can have on situation awareness, target acquisition, and weapon delivery. Specifically, it is shown that accurate data registration can be achieved by as few as two JTIDS members, with or without accurate knowledge of geodetic position.< <ETX xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">&gt;</ETX>

Hostile bank takeover offers: Analysis and implications

A comparison of the financial characteristics of banks involved in hostile takeover bids with a control group of nonhostile bank mergers indicates: (1) hostile targets experience abnormal returns that are significantly greater than for the targets of nonhostile bank mergers; (2) hostile bidders experience negative abnormal returns that are insignificantly different than for bidders involved in nonhostile bank mergers; (3) hostile bank acquisition announcements produce positive net wealth effects which are larger than the wealth effects of nonhostile acquisitions; (4) a Logit regression model using financial ratios, stock price data, and ownership data is able to distinguish between hostile and nonhostile targets.