In recent years hostage taking has become a frequently used tactic of political terrorists. Besides generating terror, hostage taking can also achieve the tangible outcome of ransom as well as the intangible, critically important political outcome of forcing governments to negotiate with-and possibly yield to-groups they would be otherwise reluctant to recognize. The potential impact of a hostagetaking incident intensifies in direct proportion to the duration of the incident and the mass media coverage it receives. This coverage not only highlights the actions of the terrorists and the fate of their hostages, but also exposes the behavior of authorities to immediate public scrutiny. These unique features of hostage taking assure its repeated use by terrorists. Modern hostage incidents have varied considerably in both development and outcomes. Sometimes authorities have hastily capitulated (e.g. , the 1976 Croatian skyjacking) while at other times target governments have steadfastly refused to concede (e.g., the 1978 Moro case in Italy and Schleier's in West Germany, 1977) or have mounted complex and hazardous rescue operations (e.g., the 1976 Entebbe raid, the 1977 Mogadishu raid and the aborted U.S. effort to free American hostages in Iran in 1980). Clearly, the circumstances and personalities involved in each hostage incident differ and seem to defy generalization. Some generalizations are pOSSible, nevertheless. In my opinion, the probability that a hostage incident can be peacefully resolved via bargaining or, by contrast, become a potentially violent test of brinkmanship generally depends on two factors: 1. The perpetrators' immediate objectives; and 2. The established policy of the target government toward hostage tactics. Both of these factors have a direct effect on bargaining and brinkmanShip. It follows that an analysis of these factors and linkages between them can yield some useful tactical principles for the settlement of hostage incidents; these factors are discussed in the first section of the article. Hostage incidents differ in their likelihood of either being resolved via bargaining or, alternatively, degenerating into contests of brinkmanship. Bargaining and brinkmanship in hostage situations are discussed in the second section of the paper, while the third section offers some tactical advice on the management of hostage incidents. This advice bears primarily on those incidents where a negotiated solution is difficult or impossible, that is, incidents that are dominated by the dynamicS of brinkmanship.
Read full abstract