Abstract Terrain-referenced navigation serves as a reliable backup system for military aviation, but its performance is often compromised by inaccurate radar altimeter noise estimation. The wide beamwidth of radar altimeters causes complex error characteristics that vary with flight conditions and radar–terrain interactions. A mismatch between assumed and actual measurement error levels can lead to degraded navigation accuracy and potential filter divergence. This issue is exacerbated in mission scenarios such as low-altitude penetrations that require frequent rolling and pitching maneuvers. This study proposes a novel radar altimeter error modeling approach that uses Monte Carlo sampling to estimate measurement error levels on-the-fly. By incorporating a radar–terrain interaction measurement model, the method provides tighter error bounds to an extended Kalman filter, improving its response to state- and terrain-dependent error characteristics. Simulation across four distinct scenarios show that the proposed approach reduces the average divergence rate from 2.75 to 0.25%, and decreases horizontal position error by 32.3% in RMSE and 31.7% in CEP.
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