Horizontal Moisture Advection Research Articles

Understanding compound extreme precipitations preconditioned by heatwaves over China under climate change

Abstract Compared with individual heatwaves or storm events, the compound extreme precipitations preconditioned by heatwaves (CHEPs) usually amplify their adverse repercussions on both ecosystems and society. However, little is known about the physical mechanisms of generations, especially considering precipitation types triggered by various factors and synoptic patterns. By classifying extreme precipitations based on duration, we conduct an event-based analysis and comprehensively assess CHEPs using the machine learning-constrained framework and binning scaling methods over China. We find the fraction of CHEPs to total extreme short-duration/long-duration precipitations (ESDPs/ELDPs) has substantially increased by 18% /15% from 1979 to 2021, when using dry-bulb temperature to identify heatwaves. More notably, the hotspots of CHEPs are generally consistent with those of ESDPs. The ESDPs play a dominant role in shaping CHEPs episodes, which are governed by enhancing atmospheric instability due to preconditioned heatwaves. The horizontal moisture advection and transient vertical dynamic motion of moisture, which are paramount to long-duration precipitations, is not significantly enhanced by the overheating atmosphere, leading to a small fraction of long-duration precipitations to CHEPs. In addition, the intensity of ESDPs tends to increase with air temperature at higher rates than that of ELDPs. As short-duration storms may trigger severe flash floods, ample attention should be paid to the escalating risks of CHEPs under climate change.

The Stirring Tropics: The Ubiquity of Moisture Modes and Moisture–Vortex Instability

Abstract Observations of column water vapor in the tropics show significant variations in space and time, indicating that it is strongly influenced by the passage of weather systems. It is hypothesized that many of the influencing systems are moisture modes, systems whose thermodynamics are governed by moisture. On the basis of four objective criteria, results suggest that all oceanic convectively coupled tropical depression (TD)-like waves and equatorial Rossby waves are moisture modes. These modes occur where the horizontal column moisture gradient is steep and not where the column water vapor content is high. Despite geographical basic-state differences, the moisture modes are driven by the same mechanisms across all basins. The moist static energy (MSE) anomalies propagate westward by horizontal moisture advection by the trade winds. Their growth is determined by the advection of background moisture by the anomalous meridional winds and anomalous radiative heating. Horizontal maps of column moisture and 850-hPa streamfunction show that convection is partially collocated with the low-level circulation in nearly all the waves. Both this structure and the process of growth indicate that the moisture modes grow from moisture–vortex instability. Last, space–time spectral analysis reveals that column moisture and low-level meridional winds are coherent and exhibit a phasing that is consistent with a poleward latent energy transport. Collectively, these results indicate that moisture modes are ubiquitous across the tropics. That they occur in regions of steep horizontal moisture gradients and grow from moisture–vortex instability suggests that these gradients are inherently unstable and are subject to continuous stirring. Significance Statement Over the tropics, column water vapor has been found to be highly correlated with precipitation, especially in slowly evolving systems. These observations and theory support the hypothesis that moisture modes exist, a type of precipitating weather system that does not exist in dry theory. In this study, we found that all oceanic tropical depression (TD)-like waves and equatorial Rossby waves are moisture modes. These systems exist in regions where moisture varies greatly in space, and they grow by transporting air from the humid areas of the tropics toward their low pressure center. These results indicate that the climatological-mean distribution of moisture in the tropics is unstable and is subject to stirring by moisture modes.

Processes behind the decrease in Congo Basin precipitation during the rainy seasons inferred from ERA‐5 reanalysis

AbstractThe ongoing Congo Basin drying is linked to decreasing atmospheric water vapour. To comprehend the processes reducing precipitation, we analysed water and Moist Static Energy components, associated with heating sources using ERA5 reanalysis data over the period 1981–2022. The findings reveal that the precipitation deficit in the Congo Basin during March–April–May and September–October–November is primarily attributed to a decreasing trend in the vertical moisture advection anomaly induced by vertical velocity anomalies. Following this, a horizontal moisture advection anomaly induced by specific humidity anomalies plays a significant role. However, evaporation, horizontal moisture advection anomalies induced by wind anomalies, and vertical moisture advection anomalies induced by specific humidity anomalies do not appear to contribute significantly to the drying trend in the region. The horizontal propagation of MSE advection anomalies exhibits a similar pattern to that of moisture flux advection anomalies, both at different boundaries and within the basin itself. Conversely, the contribution of vertical advection of MSE anomalies remains weak. By integrating moisture and MSE budgets, we interpret the declining precipitation trend as a consequence of uplift driven by horizontal MSE advection. Furthermore, our analysis indicates a decreasing trend in the atmospheric heating source within the basin in association with reduced precipitation. This reduction could signify a decrease in moisture influx into the basin, thereby providing more explanations for the observed drying.

MJO Seasonality in Its Scale Selection: Perspectives From Space‐Time Spectral Analysis of Moisture Budget

AbstractThe Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) displays an evident seasonality in its spatiotemporal scale selection. In boreal winter, the MJO is best behaved at wavenumber 2 and oscillates on a narrow time scale centering on a ∼55‐day period. In contrast, a wavenumber‐1 selection and a broad oscillation frequency centering on a ∼33‐day period are observed in boreal summer. Using the space‐time cross‐spectral analysis between convection and moisture budget, we reveal that column processes determine seasonal variations in the MJO spatial organization, while the MJO is strongly damped by the horizontal moisture advection mainly due to its meridional component (Vadv). A timescale decomposition analysis suggests that the damping effect of Vadv results primarily from high‐frequency synoptic‐scale disturbances, and the Vadv component related to the seasonal‐mean moisture generally supports the MJO growth at large wavenumbers while inhibits the growth of small wavenumbers, which is the most evident in boreal summer. The advection of seasonal‐mean moisture by anomalous zonal winds supports the MJO growth at all wavenumbers in boreal winter, but in boreal summer the growth becomes weak and even turns negative for small wavenumbers. Furthermore, different MJO timescale selections in winter versus summer are rooted in the Vadv, as both the column processes and zonal moisture advection mainly support the propagation of high‐frequency modes. Observational results related to the horizontal seasonal‐mean moisture advection are reasonably validated in a dynamical moisture model. These findings advance our understanding of the MJO seasonality and offer alternative diagnoses for evaluating the MJO simulation fidelity in contemporary climate models.

Impact of Atmospheric Circulation Variability on U.S. Midwest Moisture Sources

Abstract Elevated spring and summer rainfall in the U.S. Midwest is often associated with a strong Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ), which transports moist air northward to the region from the Gulf of Mexico. While the intensity of hourly precipitation extremes depends on local moisture availability and vertical velocity, sustained moisture convergence on longer time scales depends on horizontal moisture advection from remote sources. Therefore, the magnitude of moisture convergence in the Midwest depends in part on the humidity in these moisture source regions. Past work has identified the time-mean spatial distribution of moisture sources for the Midwest and studied how this pattern changes in years with anomalous rainfall. Here, using reanalysis products and an Eulerian moisture tracking model, we seek to increase physical understanding of this moisture source variability by linking it to the GPLLJ, which has been studied extensively. We find that on interannual time scales, an anomalously strong GPLLJ is associated with a shift in the distribution of moisture sources from land to ocean, with most of the anomalous moisture transported to—and converged in—the Midwest originating from the Atlantic Ocean. This effect is more pronounced on synoptic time scales, when almost all anomalous moisture transported to the region originates over the ocean. We also show that the observed positive trend in oceanic moisture contribution to the Midwest from 1979 to 2020 is consistent with a strengthening of the GPLLJ over the same period. We conclude by outlining how projected changes in a region’s upstream moisture sources may be useful for understanding changes in local precipitation variability. Significance Statement In this work, we study how the origin of moisture that forms precipitation in the U.S. Midwest covaries with large-scale atmospheric circulation. Our results show that an intensification of the mean winds tends to increase the proportion of total rainfall that originates from the ocean. This analysis may help to constrain future projections of rainfall extremes in the central United States, as projected changes in humidity over the ocean are typically more robust and better understood than those over land.

Contrasts of Large-Scale Moisture and Heat Budgets between Different Sea Areas of the South China Sea and the Adjacent Land

Abstract This study investigates and compares large-scale moisture and heat budgets over the eastern rainy sea area around Dongsha, the western rainless sea area around Xisha, and the northern coastland of the South China Sea. Ten-year (2011–20) surface, balloon-sounding, satellite measurements, and ERA5 reanalysis are merged into the physically consistent data to study annual and vertical variations of the budgets. It shows that the surface and column-integrated heat and moisture budgets have the smallest annual evolution over the coastland. The latent heat as a key heat contributor in summer is mainly offset by total cold advection and partially offset by net radiative cooling. The horizontal moisture advection below 700 hPa presents moistening over the sea whereas drying over the coastland during rainy months, in which the vertical moisture advection presents moistening up to 250 hPa for all three subregions. The horizontal temperature advection is weak throughout the year over the sea but displays strong top warming and bottom cooling in summer and nearly the opposite in winter over the coastland. The diabatic cooling with a peak at ∼700 hPa in winter is largely due to the enhanced radiative cooling and latent cooling. While the diabatic heating with a peak at ∼500 hPa in summer is largely due to the enhanced latent heating. The earliest atmospheric heating and moistening occur in spring over the coastland, inducing the earliest precipitation increase. The enhanced heating and moistening over Xisha have a 1-month lag relative to Dongsha, resulting in lagging precipitation.

Impact of Sea Surface Temperature in the Extratropical Southern Indian Ocean on Antarctic Sea Ice in Austral Spring

Abstract The relationship between the seasonal Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) variability and the extratropical southern Indian Ocean (SIO) sea surface temperature (SST) is explored in this study. It is found that the Antarctic SIC in a wide band of the SIO, Ross Sea, and Weddell Sea is significantly related to an SIO dipole (SIOD) SST anomaly on the interannual time scale during austral spring. This relationship is linearly independent of the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean dipole, and the Southern Hemisphere annular mode. The positive phase of the SIOD, with warm SST anomalies off of western Australia and cold SST anomalies centered around 60°E in high latitudes, stimulates a downstream wave train that induces large-scale cyclonic circulations over the SIO and the Ross and Weddell Seas. Subsequently, anomalous horizontal moisture advection causes water vapor divergence, changes the surface energy budget, and cools the underlying ocean, which leads to the increased SIC over the region in the SIO, Ross Sea, and Weddell Sea. This SIOD SST anomaly reached a record low during the austral spring of 2016 and promoted the prominent wave pattern at high latitudes, contributing to the dramatic decline of sea ice in the 2016 spring. In addition, the proportion of the SIC trend that is linearly congruent with the SIOD SST trend during austral spring is quantified. The results indicate that the trend in the SIOD SST may account for a significant component of the 1979–2014 SIC trend in the Ross Sea with the congruency peaking at 60%.

Diversity of the Austral Summer Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation in the Southwestern Indian Ocean

Abstract The 10–20-day quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) is active in the southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) during austral summer. Compared with comprehensive analyses of the QBWO in the Asian monsoon regions during boreal summer, studies focusing on the austral summer QBWO in the SWIO are relatively scarce. In this study, the diversity of the austral summer QBWO in the SWIO is examined based on K-means cluster analysis, which objectively classifies two distinct modes: an eastward-propagating mode (EM) and a poleward-propagating mode (PM). For the EM (PM), an active convection center originates from the subtropical ocean (tropical ocean) and exhibits an eastward (poleward) propagation path. Moisture budget analysis reveals that positive moisture time tendency anomalies show a phase-leading relationship relative to both QBWO convection centers. This phase leading in moisture tendency anomalies is mainly due to horizontal moisture advection. Further analysis demonstrates that meridional moisture transport (i.e., the summer mean moisture advected by the meridional quasi-biweekly wind) is fundamentally responsible for moisture phase leading in both QBWO modes in their mature phases. The combined scale interaction among low frequency, quasi-biweekly, and high frequency contributes to the initial movement for both modes in the growing phases. Although the two modes in the SWIO are initiated in different regions and exhibit distinct evolutionary features, they are regulated by similar moisture dynamics: the northerlies (northeasterlies) of the cyclonic wind response bring higher mean moisture levels east (south) of the convective center, which leads to the eastward (southward) movement of the EM (PM). Significance Statement The quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO), which can affect extreme weather events, such as extreme precipitation and heat waves, is active in the southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) during austral summer. Compared with previous studies of the QBWO in the Asian monsoon regions during boreal summer, studies focusing on the austral summer QBWO in the SWIO are relatively scarce. Specifically, we objectively classify the austral summer QBWO in the SWIO into two distinct modes: an eastward-propagating mode (EM) and a poleward-propagating mode (PM). Through moisture tendency diagnosis, we find that the two QBWO modes are regulated by similar moisture dynamics, although they are initiated in different regions and exhibit distinct evolutionary features. This improved understanding may provide insights into the monitoring and prediction of the QBWO.

External Forcings Caused the Tripole Trend of Asian Precipitation During the Holocene

AbstractTo investigate the evolution of precipitation over Asian continent in the Holocene and the associated mechanisms, we used a set of simulations of the transient climate evolution over the past 21,000 years (TraCE‐21ka), multimodel results from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 4 (PMIP4), and proxy records in Asia. The TraCE‐21ka results showed a tripole pattern in suborbital‐scale precipitation trends over the Asian continent during the Holocene, with a trend of increase over southern parts of the monsoon regions and arid Central Asia (ACA), and a trend of decline over northern parts of the monsoon regions and their areas of transition with ACA. This tripole pattern was corroborated by proxy records from multiple regions and multimodel results from the PMIP4. Further analysis based on single‐forcing simulations of TraCE‐21ka indicated that influences from different external forcings were different on the Asian precipitation in the main rainy seasons in the Holocene and that their combined effects shaped the tripole pattern. In summer, orbital forcing, by reducing solar radiation in mid‐to‐high latitudes and weakening the land‐sea thermal contrast, has been the dominant factor in the long‐term evolution of precipitation in the monsoon region and West Asia. In winter and spring, changes in meltwater flux played dominant roles in intensifying local water cycle and horizontal moisture advection, which drove the trend of increase in precipitation in ACA. Additionally, changes in greenhouse gas concentration and continental ice sheet forcings both also contribute to the increase in precipitation in ACA.

How Important Are Horizontal Eddy Moisture Transports for the MJO's Eastward Propagation?

AbstractThe eastward propagation of the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) is known to hinge crucially on the effects of horizontal moisture advection, which involve two main types of circulation anomalies. The first are those of the MJO itself, while the second are those of embedded Rossby‐type “eddies,” which tend to be most active to the west of the MJO's convective center. To quantify the relative importance of the eddies, a novel approach is taken in which their formal definition is given by the residual of a least‐squares fit to an observed bivariate MJO index. Results show that the eddies, when defined in this way, are generally of leading importance for fostering the MJO's eastward propagation in terms of column‐integrated moisture. The picture is seen to be reversed, however, when using a traditional filter‐based method to define the eddies, which are then strictly “high‐frequency” in nature.

Synoptic-Scale Effects of Atmospheric Heat Source over Key Areas of the Tibetan Plateau on Its Downstream Rainfall in Summer

Abstract This study demonstrates the synoptic-scale relationship between the atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) (TP<Q1>) and summer rainfall in eastern China. The results show that the summer TP<Q1> has three key areas [eastern, western, and northeastern TP (TPE, TPW, TPNE, respectively)] and 3–8-day dominant oscillation periods on the synoptic time scale for each subregion. Analogously, on the synoptic scale, the downstream rainfall of the TP in China has six sensitive regions (zone I to zone VI), each with 3–8-day dominant periods. The TPE<Q1>, TPW<Q1>, and TPNE<Q1> lead rainfall by 4 days with a southeastward propagation pathway, by 5 days with both southeastward and northeastward propagation routes, and by 4 days with an eastward route, respectively. Mechanistically, when TP<Q1> lies in the positive-to-negative transition phase, the rainfall moves off the TP and reaches the maximum in its most inactive phase; the jet cores embedded in the subtropical westerly jet band and the trough from the region of the TP<Q1> lead the eastward movement of the rainfall by the propagation of the divergence center and generalized moist potential vorticity. Besides, the southwest vortex and northwest vortex generated at the southeastern and northeastern flank of the TP are the main cause for the southeastward and northeastward or eastward movement of the precipitation. Further internal atmospheric dynamic structures indicate that both the horizontal moisture advection and generalized moist potential vorticity advection act on the entire propagation processes of the synoptic-scale signals for each TP<Q1> key area. In conclusion, the study has obvious theoretical significance and application value for the development of plateau synoptics.

Large-scale background and role of quasi-biweekly moisture transport in the extreme Yangtze River rainfall in summer 2020

A severe flooding hit southern China along the Yangtze River in summer 2020. The floods were induced by extreme rains, and the associated dynamic and thermodynamic conditions are investigated using daily gridded rainfall data of China and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. It is found that the June–July rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) experienced pronounced subseasonal variation in 2020, dominated by a quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) mode. The southwestward-moving anomalous QBWO circulation was essentially the fluctuation of cold air mass related to the tropospheric polar vortex or trough-ridge activities over the mid-high latitude Eurasian in boreal summer. The southwestward-transport of cold air mass from mid-high latitudes and the northeastward-transport of warm and moist air by the strong anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific provided important large-scale circulation support for the extreme rainfall in the YRB. The analysis of streamfunction of water vapor flux demonstrates that a large amount of water vapor eastward zonal transport from the Bay of Bengal and Indo-China and northward transport from the South China Sea provided the background moisture supply for the rainfall. The quasi-biweekly anomalies of potential and divergent component of vertically integrated water vapor flux played an important role in maintaining the subseasonal variability of rainfall in June–July of 2020. The diagnosis of moisture tendency budget shows that the enhanced moisture closely related to the quasi-biweekly fluctuated rainfall was primarily attributed to the moisture convergence. Further analysis of time-scale decomposition in the moisture convergence indicates that the convergence of background mean specific humidity by the QBWO flow and convergence of QBWO specific humidity by the mean flow played dominant roles in contributing to the positive moisture tendency. In combination with adiabatic ascent over the YRB induced by the warm temperature advection, the boundary layer moisture convergence strengthened the upward transport of water vapor to moisten the middle troposphere, favoring the persistence of rainfall during June–July. The vertical moisture transport associated with boundary layer convergence was of critical importance in causing low-level tropospheric moistening. By comparison, the horizontal moisture advection played a secondary important role in the quasi-biweekly oscillation of rainfall in June–July 2020.

Investigating the precipitation features of monsoon deep depressions over the Bay of Bengal using high‐resolution stand‐alone and coupled simulations

AbstractA comprehensive attempt has been made to simulate the characteristics of monsoon deep depressions (MDD) originating over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) basin, with special emphasis on their rainfall using a coupled ocean–atmospheric model, that is, the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) model, and a stand‐alone atmospheric model, that is, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a lead time of up to 72 hr. It is to be noted that COAWST employs WRF as its atmospheric component, while the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) is used as the oceanic component. It is found that though the tracks of the four MDDs considered have been reasonably simulated, the intensity was overestimated in both sets of simulations compared to India Meteorological Department (IMD) best estimates. Decomposition of the contributors to rain rate for the composite of the storms in the deep depression (DD) phase revealed that the moisture sources/sinks (Qm) are the major component in modulating the rain rate compared to the cloud sources/sinks. Further analysis of Qm suggested that vertical and horizontal advection of moisture forms the leading contributors to Qm. Validation against Modern Era Retrospective‐Analysis for Research and Analysis (MERRA) reanalysis showed that COAWST captured a more realistic evolution of Qm (specifically vertical advection) compared to its stand‐alone counterpart. Investigation of the composite storm energetics in a vortex‐following control volume showed a scarcity of bulk kinetic energy (volume‐integrated kinetic energy over the control volume) in the later hours of the DD phase in COAWST which led to the dissipation of the storm core, unlike in WRF, where a re‐intensification took place through condensational heating. It is inferred that in spite of the stand‐alone atmospheric model capturing the moisture incursion from the lateral boundaries in the lower levels significantly, the better representation of the vertical structure in COAWST led to more realistic simulations of the storms, increasing the skill in rainfall prediction.

Influence of Scandinavian teleconnection pattern on summer precipitation over the eastern side of the Tibetan Plateau

AbstractThis study analyses the relationship between the Scandinavian (SCA) teleconnection pattern and summer precipitation over the eastern side of the Tibetan Plateau (ESTP) between 1960 and 2020 and further studies the underlying physical mechanism. Statistical analysis showed that there is a significant and high negative correlation coefficient (around −0.59) between ESTP summer precipitation and the SCA teleconnection pattern over the period 1960–2020. When the SCA teleconnection pattern is in its negative phase, there is a significant increase in precipitation over most of the ESTP, and vice versa. Moisture budget analysis showed that vertical moisture advection makes a larger contribution to precipitation changes related to the SCA teleconnection pattern than evaporation and horizontal moisture advection. Specifically, positive precipitation anomalies related to the SCA teleconnection pattern are dominated by the enhanced dynamic component of vertical moisture advection, which is induced mainly by the significant ascending motion over almost the whole of the ESTP region. In summer, under the effect of the SCA teleconnection pattern, the abnormal westerly wind transports the mean warm air from TP to ESTP and forms an abnormal warm advection over the ESTP, resulting in a significant vertical upward motion and more summer precipitation over the ESTP. This study reveals the possible physical mechanism of the impacts of SCA teleconnection pattern on summer precipitation over the ESTP region and provides a scientific basis for ecological protection and disaster mitigation measures associated with major projects such as the Sichuan–Tibet railway and the Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle.

Reasons for East Siberia Winter Snow Water Equivalent Increase in the Recent Decades

With the rapid warming in the past few decades, the snow water equivalent (SWE) in winter and spring decreased generally over the Northern Hemisphere, but an increasing trend occurred in some areas, especially in east Siberia. In this paper, we analyze the sources and reasons for the SWE increase in east Siberia in winter since 1979 and document projected future SWE changes in this region. The winter SWE changes in east Siberia were not significant over the past four decades until the 2000s, and the SWE increased rapidly thereafter. The SWE increase after the 2000s is mainly contributed by SWE in November, followed by that in winter, and attributed to the increase in snowfall. With the moisture budget diagnosis, we found that the atmospheric dynamic-induced moisture convergence (vertical motion effect and horizontal advection of moisture) are the reasons that contributed to the winter snowfall increase in east Siberia. As east Siberia is cold in winter, even under the high radiative forcing scenario, precipitation in east Siberia will continue to increase and be dominated by snowfall until the 2060s. Thereafter, with the rainfall increase and the accelerated snowmelt due to rising temperature, precipitation will gradually shift to rainfall type and the SWE may turn to decrease.

Intraseasonal Melting of Northern Barents Sea Ice Forced by Circumpolar Clockwise-Propagating Atmospheric Waves during Early Summer

Abstract Arctic sea ice intraseasonal variation (ISV) is crucial for understanding and predicting atmospheric subseasonal variations over the middle and high latitudes but unclear. Sea ice concentration (SIC) over the northern Barents Sea (NBS) features large ISV during the melting season (April–July). Based on the observed SIC, this study finds that the NBS SIC ISV in the melting season is dominated by 30–60-day periodicity. The composite analysis, using 34 significant 30–60-day sea ice melting events during 1989–2017, demonstrates that 30–60-day circumpolar clockwise-propagating atmospheric waves (CCPW) are concurrent with the NBS SIC ISV, which features zonal wavenumber 1 along 65°N and a typical quasi-barotropic structure. Further analysis finds that the 30–60-day surface air temperature (SAT) evidently leads the SIC variations by nearly 6 days over the NBS, which is primarily caused by low-level meridional thermal advection linked with the 30–60-day CCPW. The positive anomalies of the downward sensible heat and longwave radiative fluxes, caused by the increased SAT and atmospheric moisture, play the dominant roles in melting the sea ice on the 30–60-day time scale over the NBS. The increased atmospheric moisture is mainly ascribed to the increased horizontal moisture advection influence by the 30–60-day CCPW. This study strongly suggests that the atmospheric ISV is a crucial precursor for NBS sea ice intraseasonal changes in boreal summer, and more accurate subseasonal predictions of atmospheric circulation, temperature, and moisture are indispensable for improving sea ice subseasonal prediction over the Arctic region. Significance Statement Northern Barents Sea (NBS) sea ice intraseasonal variation (ISV) is crucial for understanding mid- to high-latitude climate variations as well as new trans-Arctic shipping predictions but lacks solid knowledge. This study found that the 30–60-day variation is the dominant ISV periodicity of NBS sea ice change during summer, which is essentially modulated by circumpolar clockwise-propagating atmospheric waves. The atmospheric wave-induced meridional thermal advection modulates the surface temperature and atmospheric moisture, causes the changes of downward sensible heat and longwave radiative fluxes, and eventually dominantly regulates the 30–60-day sea ice variations. The mechanism of sea ice ISV strongly suggests that accurately predicting the atmospheric fields is indispensable for obtaining more accurate sea ice subseasonal prediction.

Western Pacific Premoistening for Eastward-Propagating BSISO and Its ENSO Modulation

Abstract The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a major source of subseasonal predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon. However, modeling and prediction of the BSISO remain major challenges partly due to an incomplete understanding of its eastward propagation. Our moisture budget analysis suggests that western Pacific (WPAC) premoistening leading the eastward-propagating (EP) BSISO is mainly attributed to the horizontal moisture advection with two centers in the lower and middle troposphere, respectively. The lower-tropospheric center is rooted in the linear moisture advection by flows from both the mean state and BSISO, while the middle-tropospheric center is induced by the nonlinear eddy moistening effect from the suppressed activity of synoptic tropical depression (TD) disturbances. The vertical profile of WPAC premoistening is significantly modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with the premoistening being enhanced in the lower troposphere and weakened in the middle troposphere during an El Niño summer, and vice versa in a La Niña summer. During an El Niño summer, the nonlinear eddy moistening effect is weakened in the middle troposphere due to less southwest–northeast tilt of the TD, while the linear moisture advection is enhanced in the lower troposphere due to strengthened background cross-equatorial flows and moisture gradients. These results suggest an urgent need to improve the simulation fidelity of the BSISO’s scale interactions with synoptic and interannual variabilities in climate models. Significance Statement In this work, we use statistical analysis to explore multiscale interactions of BSISO with synoptic and interannual variabilities using observations and reanalysis data. Our key finding shows that the ENSO significantly modulates the premoistening process of the BSISO over the WPAC. In an El Niño summer, the WPAC nonlinear eddy moistening effect leading the BSISO is weakened in the midtroposphere due to smaller southwest–northeast tilt of the TD, while the linear moistening effect is enhanced in the lower troposphere due to enhanced background cross-equatorial flow and moisture gradient. These results offer new metrics for validating climate models and for projecting BSISO’s future change under different global warming scenarios.

The Impact of Mean-State Moisture Biases on MJO Skill in the Navy ESPC

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is a key source of predictability in the subseasonal time scale (weeks to months) and influences a wide range of weather and climate phenomena. Although there have been enormous gains in simulating the MJO, many climate and forecast models still have biases in MJO behavior and structure. In this study, we examine the MJO in the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (Navy ESPC) forecasts performed for the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) using process-based diagnostics and a moisture budget analysis that uses wavenumber–frequency filtering to isolate the MJO. The MJO in the Navy ESPC is too strong in both boreal winter and summer. This amplitude bias is driven by biases in the vertical moisture advection in the Navy ESPC, which is too strong and deep, driven by a more bottom-heavy vertical motion profile and too steep lower-tropospheric vertical moisture gradient. Additionally, the convective moisture adjustment time scale in the Navy ESPC is faster than observed, such that for a given moisture anomaly the precipitation response is greater than observed. In the Navy ESPC, the MJO propagation shows strong agreement with observations in the Indian Ocean, followed by too rapid propagation east of the Maritime Continent in both seasons. This MJO acceleration east of the Maritime Continent is linked to an acceleration of moisture anomalies driven by biases in anomalous moisture tendency. The mechanisms that drive this bias have seasonal differences, with excess evaporation in the western Pacific dominating in boreal winter and horizontal moisture advection dominating in boreal summer.

Exploring the Dynamics of an Arctic Sea Ice Melt Event Using a Coupled Atmosphere‐Ocean Single‐Column Model (AOSCM)

AbstractThe Arctic climate system is host to many processes which interact vertically over the tightly coupled atmosphere, sea ice and ocean. The coupled Atmosphere‐Ocean Single‐Column Model (AOSCM) allows to decouple local small‐scale and large‐scale processes to investigate the model performance in an idealized setting. Here, an observed Arctic warm air intrusion event is used to show how to identify model deficiencies using the AOSCM. The AOSCM allows us to effectively produce a large number of perturbation simulations, around 1,000, to map sensitivities of the model results due to changes in physical and model properties as well as to the large‐scale tendencies. The analysis of the summary diagnostics, that is, aggregated results from sensitivity experiments evaluated against modeled physical properties, such as surface energy budget and mean sea ice thickness, reveals sensitivities to the chosen parameters. Further, we discuss how the conclusions can be used to understand the behavior of the global host model. The simulations confirm that the horizontal advection of heat and moisture plays an important role for maintaining a low‐level cloud cover, as in earlier studies. The combined cloud layers increase the energy input to the surface, which in turn enhances the ongoing melt. The clouds present an additional sensitivity in terms of how they are represented but also their interaction with the large‐scale advection and the model time step. The methodology can be used for a variety of other regions, where the coupling to the ocean is important.

Maintenance of the Basin-Dependent Quasi-Biweekly Mode in the Indian Ocean during Summer

AbstractThe atmospheric 10–20-day quasi-biweekly mode (QBWM) significantly modulates the active–break spells of the South Asian monsoon. Current knowledge, however, is limited concerning the diversity of the QBWM in the Indian Ocean (IO). Based on extended empirical orthogonal function analysis, two dominant summer modes are constructed in the IO. The first mode (QBWM1) generally depicts IO basin-dependent variability, while the second mode (QBWM2) exhibits a close relationship with the northwestern Pacific. QBWM1 initiates in the equatorial western IO and propagates toward the eastern IO along the equator. Two Rossby wave cells evolve in the off-equatorial eastern IO when convection encounters the Maritime Continent, and subsequently the northern cell develops and moves westward in the South Asian monsoon region. In contrast, QBWM2 originates in the northwestern Pacific and passes westward across the South Asian monsoon region in the form of convectively coupled Rossby waves. The maintenance mechanism of the peculiar IO basin-dependent QBWM1 is understood in terms of moisture dynamics. Significant moisture anomalies are found to precondition convection initiation in the western IO and subsequent eastward movement along the equator. Afterward, two off-equatorial moisture centers are generated in the double Rossby wave cells along with convection dissipation in the eastern IO, and the moisture anomalies are delivered from the southern cell toward the convection initiation area in the western IO via a moisture conveyor belt without coupling with convection. Moisture budget analysis indicates that the horizontal moisture advection associated with QBWM1 is regulated by the mean clockwise circulation in the tropical IO.