对合肥地区李肖叶甲成虫数量动态及三维空间格局进行研究,结果表明该成虫5月下旬初见,6月4日至7月16日为发生高峰期,9月上旬仍有零星虫口。6月4日至9月10日种群增长模型为<em>y</em>=1692.2258e<sup>-0.0545<em>t</em></sup>,6月4日至8月27日树冠上部部位增长模型为<em>y</em>=205.60e<sup>-0.0523<em>t</em></sup>,树冠西部部位的增长模型为<em>y</em>=257.13e<sup>-0.0505<em>t</em></sup>。样地中的李肖叶甲5月21日至8月13日半变异函数方程是<em>y</em>=0.0709<em>x</em><sup>3</sup>-10.479<em>x</em><sup>2</sup>+391.67<em>x</em>-300.71、<em>y</em>=-0.0122<em>x</em><sup>3</sup>+1.1201<em>x</em><sup>2</sup>-19.781<em>x</em>+317.84、<em>y</em>=-0.0013<em>x</em><sup>3</sup>+0.1613<em>x</em><sup>2</sup>-4.4862<em>x</em>+67.363、<em>y</em>=-0.0016<em>x</em><sup>3</sup>+0.9177<em>x</em><sup>2</sup>-11.495<em>x</em>+551.94、<em>y</em>=-0.0029<em>x</em><sup>3</sup>+0.3034<em>x</em><sup>2</sup>-7.5906<em>x</em>+103.37和<em>y</em>=-0.0002<em>x</em><sup>3</sup>+0.0172<em>x</em><sup>2</sup>-0.4975<em>x</em>+13.691,变程在20.3938-65.0289之间,均为聚集格局,聚集强度指标表明也均为聚集格局;树冠东、西、南、北方位的水平分布5月21日至8月13日的<em>C</em>值均大于1,I值均大于0,C<sub>A</sub>值均大于0,Iw值均大于1,为聚集格局;树冠上、中、下方位的垂直分布6月4日至8月13日的<em>C值均大于1,I</em>值均大于0,<em>C<sub>A</sub></em>值均大于0,<em>Iw</em>值均大于1,为聚集格局;5月21日至8月13日的树冠东、南、西、北、上、中、下部位的<em>C</em>值均大于1,I值均大于0,C<sub>A</sub>值均大于0,Iw值均大于1,三维分布均为聚集格局。用Iwao公式计算的结果与聚集强度指标分析的结果一致。6月4日-8月13日林间李肖叶甲的种群聚集均数λ值均大于2,聚集是李肖叶甲本身的行为所致。;To analyze quantitative dynamics of adult population and 3-D spatial pattern of <em>Ceoporus variabilis</em> (Baly), from March 26 to September 24, 2006, we investigated the adult population occurrence of <em>Ceoporus variabilis</em> (Baly) in the Redleaf Cherry Plum trees in the Apricot Blossom Park of Hefei city (117°12' E,31°52' N). The results showed that <em>Ceoporus variabilis</em> (Baly) was firstly seen on May 21, the high peak period of their occurrence was from June 4 to July 16, and only scattered adult numbers appeared in early September. The population growth model of <em>Ceoporus variabilis</em> (Baly) was <em>y</em>=1692.2258e<sup>-0.0545<em>t</em></sup> between June 4 and September 10. Similarly, the population growth model of <em>Ceoporus variabilis</em> (Baly) in the top part and the western part of the tree crown was <em>y</em>=205.60e<sup>-0.0523<em>t</em></sup> and <em>y</em>=257.13e<sup>-0.0505<em>t</em></sup>, respectively, between May 4 and July 27. These results indicate that the adult numbers of <em>Ceoporus variabilis</em> (Baly) in both horizontal and vertical direction all presented exponential decline form after the high peak period of their occurrence. The geostatistics analysis showed that the semivariable function equation of space distribution of <em>Ceoporus variabilis</em> (Baly) in May 21, June 4, June 18, July 2, July 16, July 30 and August 13, respectively, was <em>y</em> = 2E-05<em>x</em><sup>3</sup> - 0.024<em>x</em><sup>2</sup> + 0.0727<em>x</em>+0.142, <em>y</em> = 0.0709<em>x</em><sup>3</sup>-10.479<em>x</em><sup>2</sup>+391.67<em>x</em>-300.71, <em>y</em> = -0.0122<em>x</em><sup>3</sup> + 1.1201<em>x</em><sup>2</sup> - 19.781<em>x</em> + 317.84, <em>y</em> = -0.0013<em>x</em><sup>3</sup> + 0.1613<em>x</em><sup>2</sup> - 4.4862<em>x</em> + 67.363, <em>y</em> = -0.0016<em>x</em><sup>3</sup> + 0.9177<em>x</em><sup>2</sup> -11.495<em>x</em>+551.94, <em>y</em> = -0.0029<em>x</em><sup>3</sup> + 0.3034<em>x</em><sup>2</sup> - 7.5906<em>x</em> +103.37</em> and <em>y</em> = -0.0002<em>x</em><sup>3</sup>+0.0172<em>x</em><sup>2</sup>-0.4975<em>x</em>+13.691. The range of spatial dependence of adult population of <em>Ceoporus variabilis</em> (Baly) in the seven periods was from 20.3938 to 65.0289. The above results revealed that the spatial pattern of adult population of <em>Ceoporus variabilis</em> (Baly) was aggregated distribution from May 21 to August 13. Moreover, our results demonstrated that aggregation indices of horizontal distribution pattern of <em>Ceoporus variabilis</em> (Baly) in the eastern, western, northern and southern part of the tree crown, respectively, have <em>C</em> value>1, <em>I</em> value>0, <em>C<sub>A</sub></em> value>0 and Iw value>1, indicating that the spatial pattern of their horizontal distribution was aggregated pattern from May 21 to August 13. Consistently, the spatial pattern of their vertical distribution in upper, middle and lower part of the tree crown, respectively, was aggregated pattern with all <em>C</em>>1, <em>I</em>>0, <em>C<sub>A</sub></em>>0 and <em>Iw</em>>1 from June 4 to August 13. The further analysis indicated that the spatial pattern in the eastern, western, northern, southern, upper, middle and lower part of the tree crown, respectively, presented also aggregated pattern with all <em>C</em>>1, I>0, <em>C<sub>A</sub></em>>0 and <em>Iw</em>>1 from May 21 to August 13. In addition, our results showed that the <em>λ</em> values of <em>Ceoporus variabilis</em> from June 4 to August 13 were all more than 2, implying that their aggregation behaviors were caused by theirself features.
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