Limiting casting expression speed was obtained and the flow redistribution and thermal history in a horizontal direct-chill (HDC) casting was predicted using the numerical modeling approach. The governing solidification equations were non-dimensionalized to understand the relevant contribution of each term in the solidification processes in the HDC system. The effect of an increase in the casting speed on the flow characteristics and sump length was represented by the Péclet number Pe. Details of the simulation reveal that at a low Pe, the natural convective flow creates minor counter-clockwise recirculating cells in the lower half of the HDC domain. However, at a Pe above 82.75, the minor recirculating cells disappear due to the strong forced convective flow from the upstream. Additionally, an increase in the Pe increases the sump length, strength, and spread of the turbulence field within and beyond the mold region. The limiting casting conditions are computed by predicting the sump length over which the alloy temperature is above the solidus temperature. This gives a simple relation for the casting speed as a function of the geometrical data and the alloy properties. The current work is useful to casting engineers who always rely on trial and error in choosing a new casting speed whenever a new alloy is to be produced. Hence, with the new information and the casting speed relations, it is possible and easy to predict the operating window over which melt break-out can occur during HDC.