Horizon Scanning Research Articles

Plant Health Newsletter on Horizon Scanning–November 2023

Plant Health Newsletter on Horizon Scanning–November 2023

Greening procurement: Exploring evolving practices in an Irish university

Including green criteria in the public procurement of goods and services requires increased expertise, new methodologies, more significant monitoring efforts and more support towards innovation. These added complexities influence procurement professionals and their everyday practices. This article explores the under-researched issue of practitioner-led beliefs, attitudes, and their accounts of Green Public Procurement (GPP). We delve into a qualitative case study of University College Cork (UCC) in Ireland to explore the journey of procurement professionals in introducing GPP across the various sectors and departments of the university. We draw from interviews, a horizon scanning workshop, and secondary materials to capture and build on the expertise of a broad range of staff in UCC with experience in this area. We use this collective viewpoint to make sense of GPP and to position such views relative to ongoing policy priorities, looking at past, present, and future outlooks. The research shows that efforts have been made to introduce green criteria in new tenders. These gradually became wider opportunities to develop competencies, skills, and stimuli to implement more impactful strategies. The research also shows underdeveloped practices around supporting innovation, monitoring, and post-award evaluation. Overall, the paper offers a unique perspective based on the day-to-day practice of public procurement practitioners. While the case study is geographically bound and therefore presents difficulties in replicating findings, it provides a new lens for researching GPP adoption through interaction with practitioners.

Emerging Signals of Change that Could Shape the Future of Forestry: a Horizon Scan

Abstract Foresight is essential for long-term planning and forward-looking decision-making in forestry, where planning horizons often span many decades. But generating foresight is challenging due to the increasing pace and complexity of change and growing uncertainty about the future. Most change that could affect or even disrupt forestry in the future originates outside of the field, such as social, technological, economic, and environmental changes. The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning project (Forest Horizons) aims to generate foresight by identifying early signals of change from outside forestry that professionals within the field may not be aware of or pay close attention to. This article draws on the database of signals of change uncovered in the Forest Horizons project and identifies fifteen key emerging changes that could help shape the long-term future of forestry. Study Implications: The long-term nature of forestry has compelled foresters to be forward-looking and plan many decades ahead. Horizon scanning is a tool that can enhance foresight in forestry by identifying emerging signals of change that could affect the field in the future. Fifteen wide-ranging early signals of change are highlighted in this article. Consideration of these emerging changes in long-term and strategic planning could help forestry decision makers prepare for change and avoid being blindsided. Horizon scanning is a useful approach to help generate essential foresight in an era of increasingly rapid, complex, and often surprising change.

COVID-19 Response Efficacy with Biofarma's Cold Chain Vaccine Distribution System in Indonesia: An Analysis of Technology and Policy Synergy

This study delves into the synergy between technology and policy in Biofarma's Cold Chain Vaccine Distribution System in Indonesia amid the pandemic. This research aims to identify and quantify the tangible and intangible benefits of technology-policy integration, assess the system's influence on the timeliness and quantity of vaccine delivery, and evaluate the maintenance of vaccine quality across Indonesia's diverse regions. Utilizing a qualitative methodology, the study conducted extensive interviews with three representatives from different Indonesian provinces to uncover the impacts of technology and policy integration on vaccine distribution. The results spotlight several key patterns those are 1) Technological Backbone: Data Integration & Distribution: Automation has significantly transformed coordination and precision in vaccine distribution. 2) Operational Revolution: Efficiency & Adaptability: The system has notably enhanced operational efficiency and adaptability. 3) Regional Nuances: System Challenges & Refinements: Identifying unique challenges across various regions shed light on factors impacting the efficacy of the distribution system. 4) Vaccine Safeguarding: Real-time Monitoring & Inventory Transparency: Real-time monitoring and transparent inventory management ensure vaccine quality and reliability. 5)Horizon Scanning: Technological Advancements & Environmental Adaptations: Recommendations for technological advancements and proactive measures to refine vaccine distribution strategies have emerged. Refined and named patterns accurately represent the essence of the data, emphasizing the pivotal role of technology and policy integration in effective vaccine distribution amid the COVID-19 crisis. The study underscores the critical alignment of technology and policy to confront challenges and enhance vaccine distribution, impacting the ongoing response to COVID-19 and future global humanitarian operations.

Emerging threats and opportunities to managed bee species in European agricultural systems: a horizon scan

Managed bee species provide essential pollination services that contribute to food security worldwide. However, managed bees face a diverse array of threats and anticipating these, and potential opportunities to reduce risks, is essential for the sustainable management of pollination services. We conducted a horizon scanning exercise with 20 experts from across Europe to identify emerging threats and opportunities for managed bees in European agricultural systems. An initial 63 issues were identified, and this was shortlisted to 21 issues through the horizon scanning process. These ranged from local landscape-level management to geopolitical issues on a continental and global scale across seven broad themes—Pesticides & pollutants, Technology, Management practices, Predators & parasites, Environmental stressors, Crop modification, and Political & trade influences. While we conducted this horizon scan within a European context, the opportunities and threats identified will likely be relevant to other regions. A renewed research and policy focus, especially on the highest-ranking issues, is required to maximise the value of these opportunities and mitigate threats to maintain sustainable and healthy managed bee pollinators within agricultural systems.

Plant Health Newsletter on Horizon Scanning–October 2023

Plant Health Newsletter on Horizon Scanning–October 2023

Not one, but many: developing a multi-indication pricing model for medicines in Belgium.

Back ground: Current pricing and reimbursement models that focus on one indication at a time are not suited to address the market access of multi-indication medicines. Therefore, the aim of this study is to co-create with Belgian stakeholders a multi-indication pricing model and procedural pathway, to identify conditions for implementation, and to illustrate the multi-indication pricing model with a case study. Methods: Different multi-indication pricing models were identified from the literature, case studies and pilots in other countries. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 representatives from the National Institute for Health and Disability Insurance, insurance funds, clinicians, patients, the policy cell of the Minister of Health, pharmaceutical industry and academia. These provided insight in the opinions of stakeholders about possible multi-indication pricing models and their feasibility in the Belgian context. Agreement on the preferred multi-indication pricing model and procedural pathway was reached in a multi-stakeholder round table. Results: The international review generated four main multi-indication pricing models that vary in terms of whether a uniform price or differential prices are applied, whether prices are adjusted for the volume and/or value of the medicine in each indication, and whether a proactive or retroactive dynamic pricing approach is used. However, Belgian stakeholders preferred a fifth model, which sets a single price as the volume- and value-weighted average price across all indications at launch. Over time, the price is adapted based on volume and value of the medicine in real-life practice for each indication. To implement this model, a legal framework, horizon scanning and early dialogue, data infrastructure, an evidence plan for the medicine, technical expertise and governance model need to be developed. Conclusion: Although the multi-indication pricing model preferred by Belgian stakeholders raises the administrative burden, it allows for the price of a medicine to vary during the lifecycle based on its initial and real-life performance in multiple indications.

Anthrax revisited: how assessing the unpredictable can improve biosecurity.

B. anthracis is one of the most often weaponized pathogens. States had it in their bioweapons programs and criminals and terrorists have used or attempted to use it. This study is motivated by the narrative that emerging and developing technologies today contribute to the amplification of danger through greater easiness, accessibility and affordability of steps in the making of an anthrax weapon. As states would have way better preconditions if they would decide for an offensive bioweapons program, we focus on bioterrorism. This paper analyzes and assesses the possible bioterrorism threat arising from advances in synthetic biology, genome editing, information availability, and other emerging, and converging sciences and enabling technologies. Methodologically we apply foresight methods to encourage the analysis of contemporary technological advances. We have developed a conceptual six-step foresight science framework approach. It represents a synthesis of various foresight methodologies including literature review, elements of horizon scanning, trend impact analysis, red team exercise, and free flow open-ended discussions. Our results show a significant shift in the threat landscape. Increasing affordability, widespread distribution, efficiency, as well as ease of use of DNA synthesis, and rapid advances in genome-editing and synthetic genomic technologies lead to an ever-growing number and types of actors who could potentially weaponize B. anthracis. Understanding the current and future capabilities of these technologies and their potential for misuse critically shapes the current and future threat landscape and underlines the necessary adaptation of biosecurity measures in the spheres of multi-level political decision making and in the science community.

Managing uncertainty in forecasting health workforce demand using the Robust Workforce Planning Framework: the example of midwives in Belgium

BackgroundIn Belgium, the Planning Commission for Medical Supply is responsible for monitoring human resources for health (HRH) and ultimately proposing workforce quotas. It is supported by the Planning Unit for the Supply of the Health Professions. This Unit quantifies and forecasts the workforce in the healthcare professions on the basis of a stock and flow model, based on trends observed in the past. In 2019, the Planning Unit asked the KCE (Belgian Health Care Knowledge Centre) to develop additional forecasting scenarios for the midwifery workforce, to complement the standard historical trend approach. The aim of this paper is to present the development of such forecasting scenarios.MethodsThe Robust Workforce Planning Framework, developed by the Centre for Workforce Intelligence in the UK was used to develop alternative midwifery workforce scenarios. The framework consists of four steps (Horizon scanning, Scenario generation, Workforce modelling, and Policy analysis), the first two of which were undertaken by KCE, using two online surveys and five workshops with stakeholders.ResultsThree alternative scenarios are proposed. The first scenario (close to the current situation) envisages pregnancy and maternity care centred on gynaecologists working either in a hospital or in private practice. The second scenario describes an organisation of midwife-led care in hospitals. In the third scenario, care is primarily organised by primary care practitioners (midwives and general practitioners) in outpatient settings.ConclusionsThe Robust Workforce Planning Framework provides an opportunity to adjust the modelling of the health workforce and inform decision-makers about the impact of their future decisions on the health workforce.

Marine Non-Indigenous Species Dynamics in Time and Space within the Coastal Waters of the Republic of Ireland

Documenting temporal and spatial occurrence trends of Non-Indigenous Species (NIS) is essential to understand vectors and pathways of introduction, and for horizon scanning for future introductions. This study provides an overview of marine NIS found in the Republic of Ireland up to 2020. Taxonomic groups, species origin, and location of first reporting (counties) were compiled and analysed focusing on the last three decades. While the unambiguous characterisation of introduction events is challenging, analysis of 110 species corroborated the global weight of evidence that shipping activities to/from ports and marinas are the most likely vectors and pathways in Ireland. A comparable review study for the Netherlands revealed that most NIS were first introduced to mainland Europe and subsequently would take on average >15 years to reach Ireland. In the last two decades there has been an increase in NIS-focused surveys in Ireland. Incorporating data from these surveys in centralized national repositories such as the National Biodiversity Data Centre, will strongly aid the evaluation of potential NIS management responses. Furthermore, the availability of robust baseline data as well as predictions of future invaders and their associated vectors and pathways will facilitate the effective application of emerging monitoring technologies such as DNA-based approaches.

Plant Health Newsletter on Horizon Scanning – August 2023

Plant Health Newsletter on Horizon Scanning – August 2023

Plant Health Newsletter on Horizon Scanning – September 2023

Plant Health Newsletter on Horizon Scanning – September 2023

Looking at the fringes of MedTech innovation: a mapping review of horizon scanning and foresight methods

ObjectivesHorizon scanning (HS) is a method used to examine signs of change and may be used in foresight practice. HS methods used for the identification of innovative medicinal products cannot...

How can patient preferences be used and communicated in the regulatory evaluation of medicinal products? Findings and recommendations from IMI PREFER and call to action.

Objective: Patients have unique insights and are (in-)directly affected by each decision taken throughout the life cycle of medicinal products. Patient preference studies (PPS) assess what matters most to patients, how much, and what trade-offs patients are willing to make. IMI PREFER was a six-year European public-private partnership under the Innovative Medicines Initiative that developed recommendations on how to assess and use PPS in medical product decision-making, including in the regulatory evaluation of medicinal products. This paper aims to summarize findings and recommendations from IMI PREFER regarding i) PPS applications in regulatory evaluation, ii) when and how to consult with regulators on PPS, iii) how to reflect PPS in regulatory communication and iv) barriers and open questions for PPS in regulatory decision-making. Methods: PREFER performed six literature reviews, 143 interviews and eight focus group discussions with regulators, patient representatives, industry representatives, Health Technology Assessment bodies, payers, academics, and clincians between October 2016 and May 2022. Results: i) With respect to PPS applications, prior to the conduct of clinical trials of medicinal products, PPS could inform regulators' understanding of patients' unmet needs and relevant endpoints during horizon scanning activities and scientific advice. During the evaluation of a marketing authorization application, PPS could inform: a) the assessment of whether a product meets an unmet need, b) whether patient-relevant clinical trial endpoints and outcomes were studied, c) the understanding of patient-relevant effect sizes and acceptable trade-offs, and d) the identification of key (un-)favorable effects and uncertainties. ii) With respect to consulting with regulators on PPS, PPS researchers should ideally have early discussions with regulators (e.g., during scientific advice) on the PPS design and research questions. iii) Regarding external PPS communication, PPS could be reflected in the assessment report and product information (e.g., the European Public Assessment Report and the Summary of Product Characteristics). iv) Barriers relevant to the use of PPS in regulatory evaluation include a lack of PPS use cases and demonstrated impact on regulatory decision-making, and need for (financial) incentives, guidance and quality criteria for implementing PPS results in regulatory decision-making. Open questions concerning regulatory PPS use include: a) should a product independent broad approach to the design of PPS be taken and/or a product-specific one, b) who should optimally be financing, designing, conducting, and coordinating PPS, c) when (within and/or outside clinical trials) to perform PPS, and d) how can PPS use best be operationalized in regulatory decisions. Conclusion: PPS have high potential to inform regulators on key unmet needs, endpoints, benefits, and risks that matter most to patients and their acceptable trade-offs. Regulatory guidelines, templates and checklists, together with incentives are needed to foster structural and transparent PPS submission and evaluation in regulatory decision-making. More PPS case studies should be conducted and submitted for regulatory assessment to enable regulatory discussion and increase regulators' experience with PPS implementation and communication in regulatory evaluations.

The development of an evidence-based approach to inform learning and practices within the UK fire and rescue service

PurposeThe fire sector within the United Kingdom has identified a need to further develop their systematic use of academic literature and develop mechanisms to include academic knowledge to inform evidence-based policy and practice. By increasing knowledge exchange between the fire sector and academia, the ability to horizon scan and identify future relevant phenomena of interest to the fire sector will be achieved. Consequently, the evidence base and horizon scanning will increase the specificity of techniques, approaches and practices needed to continually improve the safety of the activities completed within the firefighting occupation, and it will also provide priority areas for investment and increase firefighter safety.Design/methodology/approachThis technical paper primarily features an initial scoping review of academic and grey literature and an operational incident data review. This was completed to provide an initial and updated review of disciplines and areas of academia that are actively engaged in research relevant to the fire and rescue service. Consequently, this method sought to identify and examine the various disciplines of academia involved in fire research. This paper then uses that outcome to suggest a model of multidisciplinarity to inform the fire sector.FindingsAs a result of the scoping review, each academic discipline was identified and an initial review developed a predetermined set of key search terms. This was established through identifying the most frequently used fire-related terms within each discipline. This allowed for a comprehensive understanding of the breadth of activity and depth of complexity of fire related research within each discipline and an indicative set of key search terms to be developed. Recommendations are formulated to suggest next steps to routinely incorporate the academic knowledge base in the learning process of the fire and rescue services in the United Kingdom.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper provides an initial scoping map of academic literature and disciplines relevant to activities completed in the UK fire sector, which can be used to further develop the evidence base to inform the fire and rescue service of the United Kingdom. It also outlines possible mechanisms and a model to systematically facilitate knowledge exchange between academia and the fire sector by which knowledge exchange could further support the development of evidence-based policy and practice. The broad range of benefits of collaboration between the fire and rescue service and academia are explored.Practical implicationsThis paper provides clear evidence as to why fire related research should have an increased priority status to inform the national fire and rescue services learning process and evidence for national policy and guidance development within the UK fire and rescue service. Additionally, recommendations are made to support the consideration of academic evidence in the systematic sector wide learning process.Originality/valuePreviously, the UK fire and rescue service had limited coordinated strategic engagement with academic disciplines to further develop their learning processes in order to produce an evidence base, which is cognisant of academic research to inform practice and guidance. This paper begins the narrowing of that gap by categorising academic literature relevant to fire research into clear disciplines, mapping these to an updated breadth of current activities undertaken by the fire and rescue service across the United Kingdom. The process also details a pilot of the proposed model to support knowledge exchange by producing an academically evidence-based submission to the National Fire Chiefs Council organisational learning process.

Emerging integrated care models for children and youth with mental health difficulties in Norway: a horizon scanning study

BackgroundThe implementation of Integrated Care Models (ICMs) represents a strategy for addressing the increasing issues of system fragmentation and improving service customization according to user needs. Available ICMs have been developed for adult populations, and less is known about ICMs specifically designed for children and youth. The study objective was to summarize and assess emerging ICMs for mental health services targeting children and youth in Norway.MethodsA horizon scanning study was conducted in the field of child and youth mental health. The study encompassed two key components: (i) the identification of ICMs through a review of both scientific and grey literature, as well as input from key informants, and (ii) the evaluation of selected ICMs using semi-structured interviews with key informants. The aim of the interviews was to identify factors that either promote or hinder the successful implementation or scale up of these ICMs.ResultsFourteen ICMs were chosen for analysis. These models encompassed a range of treatment philosophies, spanning from self-care and community care to specialized care. Several models placed emphasis on the referral process, prioritizing low-threshold access, and incorporating other sectors such as housing and child welfare. Four of the selected models included family or parents in their target group and five models extended their services to children and youth beyond the legal age of majority. Nine experts in the field willingly participated in the interview phase of the study. Identified challenges and facilitating factors associated with implementation or scale up of ICMs were related to the Norwegian healthcare system, mental health care delivery, as well as child and youth specific factors.ConclusionCare delivery targeting children and youth’s mental health requires further adaptation to accommodate the intricate nature of their lives. ICMs have been identified as a means to address this complexity by offering accessible services and adopting a holistic approach. This study highlights a selection of promising ICMs that appear capable of meeting some of the specific needs of children and youth. However, it is recommended to subject these models to further assessment and refinement to ensure their effectiveness and the fulfilment of their intended outcomes.

Identification of potential invasive alien species in Spain through horizon scanning

Invasive alien species have widespread impacts on native biodiversity and ecosystem services. Since the number of introductions worldwide is continuously rising, it is essential to prevent the entry, establishment and spread of new alien species through a systematic examination of future potential threats. Applying a three-step horizon scanning consensus method, we evaluated non-established alien species that could potentially arrive, establish and cause major ecological impact in Spain within the next 10 years. Overall, we identified 47 species with a very high risk (e.g. Oreochromis niloticus, Popillia japonica, Hemidactylus frenatus, Crassula helmsii or Halophila stipulacea), 61 with high risk, 93 with moderate risk, and 732 species with low risk. Many of the species categorized as very high or high risk to Spanish biodiversity are either already present in Europe and neighbouring countries or have a long invasive history elsewhere. This study provides an updated list of potential invasive alien species useful for prioritizing efforts and resources against their introduction. Compared to previous horizon scanning exercises in Spain, the current study screens potential invaders from a wider range of terrestrial, freshwater, and marine organisms, and can serve as a basis for more comprehensive risk analyses to improve management and increase the efficiency of the early warning and rapid response framework for invasive alien species. We also stress the usefulness of measuring agreement and consistency as two different properties of the reliability of expert scores, in order to more easily elaborate consensus ranked lists of potential invasive alien species.

Wet-grassland breeding bird conservation in Germany: current status and future perspectives

The decline of wet-grassland breeding bird populations across Europe, and Germany more specifically, continues unabated. In an effort to address this ongoing issue, we conducted a Horizon Scanning survey to identify the current strengths, weaknesses, future opportunities, and threats for wet-grassland breeding bird conservation across both continental and Atlantic biogeographic regions in Germany. We conducted the survey in 2022 and targeted primarily the community of conservation practitioners. We structured the survey with nine simple questions to identify the profile of the participants and collect their expert opinions. Our results confirm established challenges for bird conservation and bring into the spotlight emerging opportunities and threats. Thus, we summarize here the results of this survey and provide recommendations to decision-makers and stakeholders to work collectively towards the recovery of wet-grassland breeding bird populations in Germany and preserve grassland biodiversity for future generations.

Plant Health Newsletter on Horizon Scanning – June 2023

Plant Health Newsletter on Horizon Scanning – June 2023

Plant Health Newsletter on Horizon Scanning – July 2023

Plant Health Newsletter on Horizon Scanning – July 2023