Horizon Scale Research Articles

Magnetized Accretion onto and Feedback from Supermassive Black Holes in Elliptical Galaxies

We present 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the fueling of supermassive black holes in elliptical galaxies from a turbulent cooling medium on galactic scales, taking M87* as a typical case. We find that the mass accretion rate is increased by a factor of ∼10 compared with analogous hydrodynamic simulations. The scaling of Ṁ∼r1/2 roughly holds from ∼10 pc to ∼10−3 pc (∼10 r g) with the accretion rate through the event horizon being ∼10−2 M ⊙ yr−1. The accretion flow on scales ∼0.03–3 kpc takes the form of magnetized filaments. Within ∼30 pc, the cold gas circularizes, forming a highly magnetized (β ∼ 10−3) thick disk supported by a primarily toroidal magnetic field. The cold disk is truncated and transitions to a turbulent hot accretion flow at ∼0.3 pc (103 r g). There are strong outflows toward the poles driven by the magnetic field. The outflow energy flux increases with smaller accretor size, reaching ∼3 × 1043 erg s−1 for r in = 8 r g; this corresponds to a nearly constant energy feedback efficiency of η ∼ 0.05–0.1 independent of accretor size. The feedback energy is enough to balance the total cooling of the M87/Virgo hot halo out to ∼50 kpc. The accreted magnetic flux at small radii is similar to that in magnetically arrested disk models, consistent with the formation of a powerful jet on horizon scales in M87. Our results motivate a subgrid model for accretion in lower-resolution simulations in which the hot gas accretion rate is suppressed relative to the Bondi rate by ∼(10rg/rB)1/2 .

Bayesian Constraints on the Ring Ellipticity of M87* 2017 Using Themis

Measuring the properties of black hole images has the potential to constrain deviations from general relativity on horizon scales. Of particular interest is the ellipticity of the ring that is sensitive to the underlying spacetime. In 2019, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) produced the first-ever image of a black hole on horizon scales. Here, we reanalyze the M87* EHT 2017 data using Bayesian imaging (BI) techniques, constructing a posterior of the ring shape. We find that BI recovers the true on-sky ring shape more reliably than the original imaging methods used in 2019. As a result, we find that M87*'s ring ellipticity is 0.09−0.06+0.07 and is consistent with the measured ellipticity from general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations.

Imaging the event horizon of M87* from space on different timescales

Imaging the event horizon of M87* from space on different timescales

Signatures of the accelerating black holes with a cosmological constant from the Sgr [formula omitted] and [formula omitted] shadow prospects

Recently, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) achieved the realization of an image of the supermassive black hole Sgr A⋆ showing an angular shadow diameter D=48.7±7μas and the fractional deviation δ=−0.08−0.09+0.09(VLTI),−0.04−0.10+0.09(Keck), alongside the earlier image of M87⋆ with angular diameter D=42±3μas, deviation δ=−0.01−0.17+0.17 and deviations from circularity estimated to be ΔC≲10%. In addition, the shadow radii are assessed within the ranges 3.38≤rsM≤6.91 for M87⋆ and 3.85≤rsM≤5.72 as well as 3.95≤rsM≤5.92 for Sgr A⋆ using the Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI) and Keck observatories, respectively. These values are provided with 1-σ and 2-σ measurements. Such realizations can unveil a better comprehension of gravitational physics at the horizon scale. In this paper, we use the EHT observational results for M87⋆ and Sgr A⋆ to elaborate the constraints on parameters of accelerating black holes with a cosmological constant. Concretely, we utilize the mass and distance of both black holes to derive the observables associated with the accelerating black hole shadow.First, we compare our findings with observed quantities such as angular diameter, circularity, shadow radius, and the fractional deviation from the M87⋆ data. This comparison reveals constraints within the acceleration parameter and the cosmological constant. In fact, the acceleration parameter A is found to be in the interval [0,0.475−0.0125+0.0125], the cosmological constant spans the range of Λ∈[−14.5801−1.1051×10−6+1.1051×10−6,(1.0086×10−6)−1.5396×10−4+9.2121×10−5]. Then by considering the Sgr A⋆ data, the acceleration scheme persists with the same interval range, while, the cosmological constant shifts very slightly to the following domain [−14.7266−1.1051×10−6+1.1051×10−6,(4.6200×10−5)−1.5888×10−4+6.7890×10−5] for the VLTI observatory. Moreover, within the Keck measurements, one can find Λ∈[−14.7266−1.1051×10−6+1.1051×10−6,(2.4149×10−5)−1.5094×10−4+7.2836×10−5]. Besides, for the others parameters, both black holes reveal the range of the spin parameter a in [0,1] and electrical/magnetic charges are {e,g}∈[0,0.09].Further, only the cosmological constant intervals are altered by rsM measurements, precisely within the M87⋆ data, the upper bound shifts to (Λ1-σ=1.1361×10−4,Λ2-σ=1.7822×10−4), the VLTI gives (Λ1-σ=1.5457×10−4,Λ2-σ=1.8208×10−4), while the Keck results uncover Λ2-σ=1.8015×10−4.Lastly, one cannot rule out the possibility of the negative values for the cosmological constant on the emergence of accelerated black hole solutions within the context of minimal gauged supergravity. This intriguing possibility raises the prospect of such solutions being plausible candidates for astrophysical black holes.

Kerr–Newman black holes in Weyl–Cartan theory: Shadows and EHT constraints

With the recent release of the black hole image of Sgr A* alongside the earlier image of M87*, one can achieve an in-depth understanding of gravitational physics at the horizon scale. According to the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) collaboration, the observed image is consistent with the expected appearance of a Kerr black hole. In the present work, we consider Kerr–Newman black holes in Weyl–Cartan theory as a supermassive black hole (BH) and evaluate the parameters of the model with shadow size estimates done by the observations of M87* and Sgr A* from EHT. Such a study can be a possible way to distinguish Weyl–Cartan theory from general relativity and ensure the validity of the idea. Besides, we calculate the energy emission rate for the corresponding BH and discuss how the model’s parameters affect the emission of particles around the black hole. With this investigation, we are able to examine the time evolution and lifetime of the black hole in such a theory of gravity.

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. VIII. Physical Interpretation of the Polarized Ring

In a companion paper, we present the first spatially resolved polarized image of Sagittarius A* on event horizon scales, captured using the Event Horizon Telescope, a global very long baseline interferometric array operating at a wavelength of 1.3 mm. Here we interpret this image using both simple analytic models and numerical general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations. The large spatially resolved linear polarization fraction (24%–28%, peaking at ∼40%) is the most stringent constraint on parameter space, disfavoring models that are too Faraday depolarized. Similar to our studies of M87*, polarimetric constraints reinforce a preference for GRMHD models with dynamically important magnetic fields. Although the spiral morphology of the polarization pattern is known to constrain the spin and inclination angle, the time-variable rotation measure (RM) of Sgr A* (equivalent to ≈46° ± 12° rotation at 228 GHz) limits its present utility as a constraint. If we attribute the RM to internal Faraday rotation, then the motion of accreting material is inferred to be counterclockwise, contrary to inferences based on historical polarized flares, and no model satisfies all polarimetric and total intensity constraints. On the other hand, if we attribute the mean RM to an external Faraday screen, then the motion of accreting material is inferred to be clockwise, and one model passes all applied total intensity and polarimetric constraints: a model with strong magnetic fields, a spin parameter of 0.94, and an inclination of 150°. We discuss how future 345 GHz and dynamical imaging will mitigate our present uncertainties and provide additional constraints on the black hole and its accretion flow.

Baryon acoustic scale at zeff = 0.166 with the SDSS blue galaxies

ABSTRACT The baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs) phenomenon provides a unique opportunity to establish a standard ruler at any epoch in the history of the evolving universe. The key lies in identifying a suitable cosmological tracer to conduct the measurement. In this study, we focus on quantifying the sound horizon scale of BAO in the Local Universe. Our chosen cosmological tracer is a sample of blue galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), positioned at the effective redshift $z_{{\rm eff}} = 0.166$. Utilizing Planck-CMB input values for redshift-to-distance conversion, we derive the BAO scale $s_{{\rm BAO}} = 100.28 ^{+10.79} _{-22.96}$ Mpc h−1 at the 1$\sigma$ confidence level. Subsequently, we extrapolate the BAO signal scale in redshift space: $\Delta z_{{\rm BAO}}(z_{\rm eff}=0.166)=0.0361^{+0.00262}_ {-0.0055}$. This measurement holds the potential to discriminate among dark energy models within the Local Universe. To validate the robustness of our methodology for BAO scale measurement, we conduct three additional BAO analyses using different cosmographic approaches for distance calculation from redshifts. These tests aim to identify possible biases or systematics in our measurements of $s_{{\rm BAO}}$. Encouragingly, our diverse cosmographic approaches yield results in statistical agreement with the primary measurement, indicating no significant deviations. Conclusively, our study contributes with a novel determination of the BAO scale in the Local Universe, at $z_{{\rm eff}} = 0.166$, achieved through the analysis of the SDSS blue galaxies cosmic tracer.

A new analytical model of magnetofluids surrounding rotating black holes

In this study, we develop a simplified magnetofluid model in the framework of GRMHD. We consider an ideal, adiabatic fluid composed of two components, ions and electrons, having a constant ratio between their temperatures. The flows are assumed to be governed by gravity, enabling us to employ the ballistic approximation, treating the streamlines as timelike geodesics. We show that the model is analytically solvable around a rotating black hole if the angular velocity of the geodesic uθ is vanishing. In the corresponding solution, which is named the conical solution, we derive a comprehensive set of explicit expressions for the thermodynamics and the associated magnetic field. Furthermore, we explore the potential applications of our model to describe the thick disks and the jets at the horizon scale. Our model provides a direct pathway for the study of black hole imaging.

Gravitational traces of bumblebee gravity in metric–affine formalism

This work explores various manifestations of bumblebee gravity within the metric–affine formalism. We investigate the impact of the Lorentz violation parameter, denoted as X, on the modification of the Hawking temperature. Our calculations reveal that as X increases, the values of the Hawking temperature attenuate. To examine the behavior of massless scalar perturbations, specifically the quasinormal modes, we employ the Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin method. The transmission and reflection coefficients are determined through our calculations. The outcomes indicate that a stronger Lorentz–violating parameter results in slower damping oscillations of gravitational waves. To comprehend the influence of the quasinormal spectrum on time–dependent scattering phenomena, we present a detailed analysis of scalar perturbations in the time–domain solution. Additionally, we conduct an investigation on shadows, revealing that larger values of X correspond to larger shadow radii. Furthermore, we constrain the magnitude of the shadow radii using the EHT horizon–scale image of SgrA∗ . Finally, we calculate both the time delay and the deflection angle.

Topographic correction of visible near‐infrared reflectance spectra for horizon‐scale soil organic carbon mapping

AbstractUnderstanding soil organic carbon (SOC) response to global change has been hindered by an inability to map SOC at horizon scales relevant to coupled hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. Standard SOC measurements rely on homogenized samples taken from distinct depth intervals. Such sampling prevents an examination of fine‐scale SOC distribution within a soil horizon. Visible near‐infrared hyperspectral imaging (HSI) has been applied to intact monoliths and split cores surfaces to overcome this limitation. However, the roughness of these surfaces can influence HSI spectra by scattering reflected light in different directions posing challenges to fine‐scale SOC mapping. Here, we examine the influence of prescribed surface orientation on reflected spectra, develop a method for correcting topographic effects, and calibrate a partial least squares regression (PLSR) model for SOC prediction. Two empirical models that account for surface slope, aspect, and wavelength and two theoretical models that account for the geometry of the spectrometer were compared using 681 homogenized soil samples from across the United States that were packed into sample wells and presented to the spectrometer at 91 orientations. The empirical approach outperformed the more complex geometric models in correcting spectra taken at non‐flat configurations. Topographically corrected spectra reduced bias and error in SOC predicted by PLSR, particularly at slope angles greater than 30°. Our approach clears the way for investigating the spatial distributions of multiple soil properties on rough intact soil samples.

Heterogeneity of pore space properties at the pedon scale of the Phaeozems humus horizon

The variability of soil parameters depends on the chosen method of measurements, the genesis and type of soil land use, and the level of hierarchy of soil structure organization. Computed tomography of soils is an actively growing method of soil structure study, for which many methodological issues remain relevant. The aim of this work was to examine the variability of the main parameters of the pore space (total porosity, number and average pore size) by the example of the humic horizon of a Phaeozem soil. For this purpose, an excessive number (15 microcores of 2 × 3 cm volume) was sampled from soil profile. Based on statistical evaluation of parameter variation, the objective was to determine the optimal number of replicates allowing full characterization of the soil pore space microstructure at the pedon scale. The smallest difference in heterogeneity between pedon and representative elementary volume REV was observed for total porosity (~12 times), while this ratio is larger (~14 times) for number and average pore size. On average, the threshold level, at which the dispersion of properties stopped decreasing, was 7.3 ± 0.6 monoliths for total porosity, 6.5 ± 0.6 monoliths for pore number, and 7.5 ± 0.4 monoliths for LT. Thus, minimal number of replicates necessary for full characteristic of soil structure is 7 monoliths. Sampling and analysis of microcores in 3 repetitions allows to describe the heterogeneity of the structure of the upper pedon horizon only by 25–30%.

Influence of tachyonic instability on the Schwinger effect in Higgs inflation model

We investigate the influence of the tachyonic instability on the Schwinger effect in Higgs inflation model. In this work we identify the standard horizon scale and the tachyonic instability . This is the horizon scale in which the given Fourier begins to become tachyonically unstable. Influence of this scale appears by vanishing electromagnetic field energy density and energy density of created charged particles due to the Schwinger effect at the very beginning of inflation but does not alter conclusions of our previous work in Kamarpour (2022 Gen. Relativ. Gravit. 54 32; 2023 Int. J. Mod. Phys.D 32 2350025). We use two coupling functions to break conformal invariance of Maxwell action. The simplest coupling function and a curvature based coupling function where is the potential of Higgs inflation in Kamarpour (2022 Gen. Relativ. Gravit. 54 32; 2023 Int. J. Mod. Phys.D 32 2350025). In fact, we find that only at the very beginning of inflation both energy densities of electromagnetic field and created charged particles vanish due to effect of tachyoinc instability.

Bridging Scales in Black Hole Accretion and Feedback: Magnetized Bondi Accretion in 3D GRMHD

Fueling and feedback couple supermassive black holes (SMBHs) to their host galaxies across many orders of magnitude in spatial and temporal scales, making this problem notoriously challenging to simulate. We use a multi-zone computational method based on the general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) code KHARMA that allows us to span 7 orders of magnitude in spatial scale, to simulate accretion onto a non-spinning SMBH from an external medium with a Bondi radius of R B ≈ 2 × 105 GM •/c 2, where M • is the SMBH mass. For the classic idealized Bondi problem, spherical gas accretion without magnetic fields, our simulation results agree very well with the general relativistic analytic solution. Meanwhile, when the accreting gas is magnetized, the SMBH magnetosphere becomes saturated with a strong magnetic field. The density profile varies as ∼r −1 rather than r −3/2 and the accretion rate is consequently suppressed by over 2 orders of magnitude below the Bondi rate . We find continuous energy feedback from the accretion flow to the external medium at a level of . Energy transport across these widely disparate scales occurs via turbulent convection triggered by magnetic field reconnection near the SMBH. Thus, strong magnetic fields that accumulate on horizon scales transform the flow dynamics far from the SMBH and naturally explain observed extremely low accretion rates compared to the Bondi rate, as well as at least part of the energy feedback.

The sound horizon scale at the baryon drag epoch

We study how to measure the sound horizon scale at the baryon drag epoch, rs , a parameter considered a cosmological standard ruler, from the 2-point correlation function analysis. This important parameter is originated in the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) phenomenon, which supports the large-scale structure scenario of the ΛCDM cosmological model, and provides valuable information of the dynamical evolution of the Universe. For this, one of the aims of current astronomical surveys is to know this parameter with high precision. Here we study how to correctly extract the BAO sound horizon scale in case where the signature is weak because there are few correlated pairs, sourced from the BAO phenomenon, probably due to non-linear evolution processes.

Interplay between black holes and ultralight dark matter: analytic solutions

Dark matter (DM) can consist of a scalar field so light that DM particles in the galactic halo are best described by classical waves. We investigate how these classical solutions are influenced by the presence of a non-rotating supermassive black hole at the center of the galaxy, using an analytical, albeit approximate, approach.Relying on this analytic control, we examine the consequences of imposing causal boundary conditions at the horizon, which are typically overlooked. First, we examine the scenario where the backreaction of dark matter can be neglected. The scalar field decays like a power law at large distances, thus endowing the black hole with “hair”. We derive solutions for the field profile over a wide range of parameters, including cases with rotating dark matter. As a by-product, we extract the dynamical Love numbers for scalar perturbations. Next, we determine the spectrum of bound states and their behaviour.Finally, we incorporate the self-gravity of the scalar field, with a focus on the situation where dark matter forms a soliton (boson star) at the center of the galaxy. We derive an analytical expression for the soliton at every distance from the center. With a solution that remains applicable even at horizon scales, we can reliably compute the accretion rate of the black hole.

Examining the validity of the minimal varying speed of light model through cosmological observations: Relaxing the null curvature constraint

We revisit a consistency test for the speed of light variability, using the latest cosmological observations. This exercise can serve as a new diagnostics for the standard cosmological model and distinguish between the minimal varying speed of light in the Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker universe. We deploy Gaussian processes to reconstruct cosmic distances and ages in the redshift range 0<z<2 utilizing the Pantheon compilation of type-Ia supernova luminosity distances (SN), cosmic chronometers from differential galaxy ages (CC), and measurements of both radial and transverse modes of baryon acoustic oscillations (r-BAO and a-BAO) respectively. Such a test has the advantage of being independent of any non-zero cosmic curvature assumption – which can be degenerated with some variable speed of light models – as well as any dark energy model. We also examine the impact of cosmological priors on our analysis, such as the Hubble constant, supernova absolute magnitude, and the sound horizon scale. We find null evidence for the speed of light variability hypothesis for most choices of priors and data-set combinations. However, mild deviations are seen at ∼2σ confidence level for redshifts z<1 with some specific prior choices when r-BAO data is employed, and at z>1 with a particular reconstruction kernel when a-BAO data are included. Still, we ascribe no statistical significance to this result bearing in mind the degeneracy between the associated priors for combined analysis, and incompleteness of the a-BAO data set at higher z.

General relativistic hydrodynamic simulations of perturbed transonic accretion

Contact. Comparing horizon-scale observations of Sgr A* and M 87* with numerical simulations has provided considerable insight into their interpretation. Most of these simulations are variations of the same physical scenario consisting of a rotation-supported torus seeded with poloidal magnetic fields. However, this approach has several well-known limitations such as secular decreasing trends in mass-accretion rates that render long-term variability studies difficult; a lack of connection with the large-scale accretion flow, which is replaced by an artificial medium emulating vacuum; and significant differences with respect to the predictions of models of accretion onto Sgr A* fed by stellar winds. Aims. We aim to study the flow patterns that arise on horizon scales in more general accretion scenarios that have a clearer connection with the large-scale flow, and are at the same time controlled by a reduced set of parameters. Methods. As a first step in this direction, we performed three-dimensional general relativistic hydrodynamic simulations of rotating transonic flows with velocity perturbations injected from a spherical boundary located far away from the central object (1000 gravitational radii). We studied the general properties of these flows with varying perturbation amplitudes and angular momentum. We analyzed time series of mass and angular-momentum radial fluxes, angle- and time-averaged profiles, and synthetic bremsstrahlung light curves, as well as the three-dimensional structure of the flow, and quantified shock and sonic transitions in the solutions. Results. We observe a rich phenomenology in accretion patterns, which includes smooth Bondi-like flows, turbulent torus-like structures, shocks, filaments, and complex sonic structures. For sufficiently large perturbations and angular momentum, radial profiles deviate from the constant entropy and constant angular-momentum profiles used for initialization and resemble those of advection-dominated accretion flows, showing evidence of entropy generation and angular-momentum redistribution not mediated by magnetic fields. Time series do not show the secular decreasing trend and are suitable for long-term variability studies. We see that the fluctuations are amplified and extend further in frequency than the injected spectrum, producing a red noise spectrum both for the mass-accretion rate and the synthetic light curves. Conclusions. We present a simulation setup that can produce a wide variety of flow patterns at horizon scales and incorporate information from large scale accretion models. The future inclusion of magnetic fields and radiative cooling could make this type of simulation a viable alternative for the numerical modeling of general low-luminosity active galactic nuclei (AGNs).

Polarimetry and astrometry of NIR flares as event horizon scale, dynamical probes for the mass of Sgr A*

We present new astrometric and polarimetric observations of flares from Sgr A* obtained with GRAVITY, the near-infrared interferometer at ESO’s Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI), bringing the total sample of well-covered astrometric flares to four and polarimetric flares to six. Of all flares, two are well covered in both domains. All astrometric flares show clockwise motion in the plane of the sky with a period of around an hour, and the polarization vector rotates by one full loop in the same time. Given the apparent similarities of the flares, we present a common fit, taking into account the absence of strong Doppler boosting peaks in the light curves and the EHT-measured geometry. Our results are consistent with and significantly strengthen our model from 2018. First, we find that the combination of polarization period and measured flare radius of around nine gravitational radii (9Rg ≈ 1.5RISCO, innermost stable circular orbit) is consistent with Keplerian orbital motion of hot spots in the innermost accretion zone. The mass inside the flares’ radius is consistent with the 4.297 × 106 M⊙ measured from stellar orbits at several thousand Rg. This finding and the diameter of the millimeter shadow of Sgr A* thus support a single black hole model. Second, the magnetic field configuration is predominantly poloidal (vertical), and the flares’ orbital plane has a moderate inclination with respect to the plane of the sky, as shown by the non-detection of Doppler-boosting and the fact that we observe one polarization loop per astrometric loop. Finally, both the position angle on the sky and the required magnetic field strength suggest that the accretion flow is fueled and controlled by the winds of the massive young stars of the clockwise stellar disk 1–5″ from Sgr A*, in agreement with recent simulations.

Detector induced anisotropies on the angular distribution of gravitational wave sources and opportunities of constraining horizon scale anisotropies

ABSTRACT The cosmological principle has been verified using electromagnetic observations. However its verification with high accuracy is challenging due to various foregrounds and selection effects, and possible violation of the cosmological principle has been reported in the literature. In contrast, gravitational wave (GW) observations are free of these foregrounds and related selection biases. This may enable future GW experiments to test the cosmological principle robustly with full sky distribution of millions of standard bright/dark sirens. However, the sensitivities of GW detectors are highly anisotropic, resulting in significant instrument induced anisotropies in the observed GW catalogue. We investigate these instrumental effects for 3rd generation detector networks in term of multipoles aℓm of the observed GW source distribution, using Monte Carlo simulations. (1) We find that the instrument induced anisotropy primarily exists at the m = 0 modes on large scales (ℓ ≲ 10), with amplitude 〈|aℓ0|2〉 ∼ 10−3 for two detectors (ET-CE) and ∼10−4 for three detectors (ET-2CE). This anisotropy is correlated with the sky distribution of signal-to-noise ratio and localization accuracy. Such anisotropy sets a lower limit on the detectable cosmological aℓ0. (2) However, we find that the instrument induced anisotropy is efficiently cancelled by rotation of the Earth in m ≠ 0 components of aℓm. Therefore aℓm (m ≠ 0) are clean windows to detect cosmological anisotropies. (3) We investigate the capability of 3rd generation GW experiments to measure the cosmic dipole. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we find that cosmic dipole with an amplitude of ∼10−2 reported in the literature can be detected/ruled out by ET-CE and ET-2CE robustly, through the measurement of a11.

Quantum effects of the conformal anomaly in a 2D model of gravitational collapse

The macroscopic effects of the quantum conformal anomaly are evaluated in a simplified two-dimensional model of gravitational collapse. The effective action and stress tensor of the anomaly can be expressed in a local quadratic form by the introduction of a scalar conformalon field φ, which satisfies a linear wave equation. A wide class of non-vacuum initial state conditions is generated by different solutions of this equation. An interesting subclass of solutions corresponds to initial states that give rise to an arbitrarily large semi-classical stress tensor leftlangle {T}_{mu}^{nu}rightrangle on the future horizon of the black hole formed in classical collapse. These lead to modification and suppression of Hawking radiation at late times after the collapse, and potentially large backreaction effects on the horizon scale due to the conformal anomaly. The probability of non-vacuum initial conditions large enough to produce these effects is estimated from the Gaussian vacuum wave functional of φ in the Schrödinger representation and shown to be mathcal{O} (1). These results indicate that quantum effects of the conformal anomaly in non-vacuum states are relevant for gravitational collapse in the effective theory of gravity in four dimensions as well.