Home Sales Research Articles

Multiple approaches to valuation of conservation design and low-impact development features in residential subdivisions

Residents, developers and civic officials are often faced with difficult decisions about appropriate land uses in and around metropolitan boundaries. Urban expansion brings with it the potential for negative environmental impacts, but there are alternatives, such as conservation subdivision design (CSD) or low-impact development (LID), which offer the possibility of mitigating some of these effects at the development site. Many urban planning jurisdictions across the Midwest do not currently have any examples of these designs and lack information to identify public support or barriers to use of these methods. This is a case study examining consumer value for conservation and low-impact design features in one housing market by using four different valuation techniques to estimate residents' willingness to pay for CSD and LID features in residential subdivisions. A contingent valuation survey of 1804 residents in Ames, IA assessed familiarity with and perceptions of subdivision development and used an ordered value approach to estimate willingness to pay for CSD and LID features. A majority of residents were not familiar with CSD or LID practices. Residents indicated a willingness to pay for most CSD and LID features with the exception of clustered housing. Gender, age, income, familiarity with LID practices, perceptions of attractiveness of features and the perceived effect of CSD and LID features on ease of future home sales were important factors influencing residents' willingness to pay. A hypothetical referendum measured willingness to pay for tax-funded conservation land purchases and estimated that a property tax of around $50 would be the maximum increase that would pass. Twenty-seven survey respondents participated in a subsequent series of experimental real estate negotiations that used an experimental auction mechanism to estimate willingness to pay for CSD and LID features. Participants indicated that clustered housing (with interspersed preserved forest or open space areas), rain gardens, and neighborhood streams with a forested buffer were the features they were most willing to pay for. Participants were not willing to pay for neighborhood streams without buffers. Finally, a spatial hedonic price model using 2093 homes in Ames, IA was used to estimate the effect of public and private open space on housing values. The model indicated that presence of neighborhood association-owned forest and water features as well as proximity to public parks had significant positive effects on housing prices. However, proximity to a public lake had a negative effect on home values. The four methods used in this study include both stated and revealed preference techniques. Although the relative magnitude of value expressed varied, all methods indicated that residents value CSD and LID subdivision features. Subdivision features that included explicit environmental benefits were also consistently preferred over features that did not. Familiarity with alternative designs was an important factor influencing resident willingness to pay for neighborhood features, and developers and civic officials should consider ways to educate citizens about CSD and LID development techniques to increase interest in these designs.

The Future of Prediction: How Google Searches Foreshadow Housing Prices and Sales

We demonstrate how data from search engines such as Google provide an accurate but simple way to predict future business activities. Applying our methodology to predict housing market trends, we find that a housing search index is strongly predictive of future housing market sales and prices. For state-level predictions in the US, the use of search data produces out-of-sample predictions with a smaller mean absolute error than the baseline model that uses conventional data but lacks search data. Furthermore, we find that our simple model of using search frequencies beat the predictions made by experts from the National Association of Realtors by 23.6% for future US home sales. We also demonstrate how these data can be used in other markets, such as home appliance sales. In the near future, this type of “nanoeconomic” data can transform prediction in numerous markets, and thus business and consumer decision-making.

Hedonic Value of Transit Accessibility: An Empirical Analysis in a Small Urban Area

Many programs of the SAFETEA-LU have pointed to improving transit services and individuals' accessibility in small urban areas. Urban economic theory suggests that improving accessibility by investing in transportation has the potential to drive up bids for land. However, will the improved transit accessibility in small urban areas increase property values? A number of studies have investigated the impact of rail transit on home sales but produced mixed results. Further, few studies have explored how transit influences the lease rate of apartments. This question is more relevant because transit accessibility tends to have a greater impact on apartment dwellers than home owners. Using about 400 apartment dwellers in Fargo, North Dakota, this study developed a hedonic price model to determine implicit price of proximity to bus routes. We found a negative impact of bus transit on apartment rent after controlling for other factors, however. We speculated that in a small urban area, this negative relationship could be mainly attributable to spurious relationships from other causal factors, as well as nuisance effects of bus transit itself.

Toward an Understanding of Real Estate Homebuyer Internet Search behavior: An Application of Ocular Tracking Technology

This paper examines the eye movements of homebuyers searching for homes for sale on the Internet. Total dwell time (how long a person looks at the photo), fixation duration (time spent at each focal point), and saccade amplitude (average distance between focal points) significantly explain someone's opinion of the home and its value. The sections that are viewed first are the photo of the home, the quantitative description section, distantly followed by the real estate agent remarks section. Finally, charm pricing, the marketing technique where agents list properties at slightly less than round numbers, works in opposition to its intended effect. Given that homebuyers dwell significantly longer on the first home they view, and since charm pricing typically causes a property to appear towards the end of a search when sorted by price from low to high, we question the wisdom of using a charm pricing marketing strategy.

米国の不動産流通市場と金融面での連携

米国の不動産流通市場と金融面での連携

Efficiency in the California Real Estate Labor Market

Problem statement: This research explores the extent of market efficiency in the real estate labor market. Given a common commission rate, areas with high average home prices will generate higher agent income per home sold. If markets are efficient with few barriers to entry, additional agents per capita would be expected in high-priced areas, but each home sale would represent a larger portion of an agent’s annual income so a risk premium should be present. Approach: Agent earnings and the number of homes sold were examined in selected California counties. The data provides details on over 200,000 transactions, for nearly 47,000 different real estate agents and brokers, with usable data for 477 distinct zip codes. Results: Results show that regions with a higher median home price have a greater number of parttime real estate agents and an increased number of agents per capita. Conclusion: There are fewer average commission events per agent in areas with higher housing prices, but a higher level of total commission earnings per agent to compensate for the added income risk per completed transaction.

Bird diversity indicates ecological value in urban home prices

It is known that public greenspaces contribute positively to urban home prices; yet urban ecologists also have known that not all greenspaces are equally valuable. Also some ecologically valuable space appears on private residences, not only public spaces. This work examines directly whether using a variable derived from bird species richness and relative abundance adds new information regarding ecological value and if high values of that variable significantly improve urban housing prices. We collected information on approximately 368 home sales in Lubbock, TX from 2008 to 2009 from the Multiple Listing Service: Sale Price, Square Footage, Lot Size and Age in 17 neighborhoods identified by the Lubbock Realtor Association. We conducted bird counts in the vicinity of each home sale and recorded both the total numbers of birds and the number of bird species identified in a particular class—less ubiquitous bird species. Finally, we used GIS to record the percentage of tree cover in the immediate area surrounding each sale. We constructed a predictive model for a bird relative abundance and species richness variable (Bird) from AICc statistics. Home price for each sale then was regressed against the predicted value of ‘Bird’ from the selected model and regressed against home price along with other attributes from the Multiple Listing Service. The predicted value for Bird finds that the addition of another desirable, less ubiquitous bird species improves mean home price by $32,028, likely due to the human created landscapes on private properties immediately surrounding a home sale. Curiously, the presence of a nearby park neither explained variation in the ecological indicator nor contributed to home price elevation. This deliberately simple and inexpensive indicator helped to direct attention to the composition of local landscapes in specific areas to assess joint ecological and economic gains rather than presume a priori that open greenspace jointly satisfies these dual objectives.

Comparisons of Residents' Perceptions of Patterns and Trends on Computer-Animated Maps and Graphs and on Google Maps of Events in Their Neighbourhoods

The present study measures and compares the accuracy of residents' browsing of computer-animated maps and graphs and computer-programmed Google maps in two versions of the Glengarry and Wellington-Crawford Geographical Monitoring Project (GWCGMP). Respondents answered the project's entry questions before browsing displays of the locations and timings of crime and disorder offences, fires, and home sales and prices in their neighbourhoods. Before exiting the project, they answered questions about these events piped from their entry answers and browsed displays. One hundred and seven respondents perceived approximately one-quarter of the “correct” patterns on browsed maps and trends on browsed graphs. These correct patterns and trends were inferred from time-series and linear regression analyses of data on offences, fires, and housing sales for the neighbourhoods. In addition, respondents agreed with almost one-half of comparisons between the patterns and timings of their own events and those displayed on maps and graphs. In conclusion, Web-savvy, younger, spatially active residents are inferred to have been more accurate in perceiving online map patterns and graph trends. They were more accurate than casual stay-at-home browsers, who were more likely not to remember patterns, trends, or displays than they were to perceive them incorrectly.

The Impact of Solar Panels on the Price and Saleability of Domestic Properties in Oxford

Studies into energy efficiency and micro-generation in the built environment tend to focus on the economic or environmental paybacks of installed technologies. However, as the opening quote suggests, features that reduce the energy consumption of a property may also play a role in influencing property value. To date research into whether and to what extent energy efficiency and micro-generation technologies, such as solar panels, affect the price and saleability of properties has been limited and the assumption amongst property professionals has been that these installations do not affect the price or saleability of properties (Home Sale Network 2009; RICS 2010). This paper addresses the topic by reporting the results of a study which examined property buyer responses to solar panels and explored the expectations of householders and estate agents surrounding solar panels and value in domestic properties in Oxford.

Taking Stock of Housing Wealth: Reported Home Values

For most homeowners, the house is not only the most important consumption good but also the dominant asset. A subjective assessment of home value is an inherent component of many household decisions, including portfolio choice, retirement planning and borrowing practices. The US Government, through surveys including the US census, the American Household Survey, Current Population Survey and the Health and Retirement Survey, uses a subjective, self-reported home value as a means of mapping out American wealth. Current research treats the self-reported home price as an objective and uncontested measure of home value, although there has been no evidence concerning its validity. We show that reported home prices do have an effect on home sale behaviors and outcomes in an experimental setting. However, we propose that reported home values vary from market values in a systematic fashion. Survey data show that a higher status, in terms of household income, neighborhood home value, or self-reported health status, is associated with a greater gap between the self-reported home value and one’s home worth. This has important implications for understanding existing literature and for future research.

Organic products, consumer behavior on market and european organic product market situation

The market of organic products around the world increased its volume in Central and Eastern Europe with organic food market has a number of shared features, which include the relatively low demand for organic food, low share of regular customers, the problems of producers marketing, the lack of enterprises which process organic products. Consumer behavior purchasing organic foods is influenced by several factors, among which is dominated consumer personality, income, finances and lifestyle, as well as psychological factors such as perception, motivation, learning, cognition and attitudes. Cultural and social factors in consumer behavior exhibit a lesser degree. Organic fruit and organic vegetables quality is generally higher for content of biologically active substances such as vitamins, polyphenols and flavonoids. The content of pesticide residues in organic food is significantly lower than conventional production. Regular monitoring of chemical and microbiological safety of organic products already in the primary production occurring in the raw state and after working in various sectors of food, an intensification of awareness raising and targeted increased support for organic agriculture. Multifunctional sector and increased support for family farms oriented for sectors with higher added value than the home sale, production processing on the farm and so on. By support of the sale of high quality domestic production by the state will be possible to persuade more people to personal health status and greater consumption of organic food affects the health and prevent the occurrence of various diseases.

An autoregressive approach to house price modeling

A statistical model for predicting individual house prices and constructing a house price index is proposed utilizing information regarding sale price, time of sale and location (ZIP code). This model is composed of a fixed time effect and a random ZIP (postal) code effect combined with an autoregressive component. The former two components are applied to all home sales, while the latter is applied only to homes sold repeatedly. The time effect can be converted into a house price index. To evaluate the proposed model and the resulting index, single-family home sales for twenty US metropolitan areas from July 1985 through September 2004 are analyzed. The model is shown to have better predictive abilities than the benchmark S&P/Case--Shiller model, which is a repeat sales model, and a conventional mixed effects model. Finally, Los Angeles, CA, is used to illustrate a historical housing market downturn.

The Economic Impact of Anticipated House Price Changes-Evidence from Home Sales

If realized house prices have the wealth effect and the collateral effect on the economy, anticipated house price changes should have similar economic effects. This article empirically analyzes the effects of single-family home sales, which are shown to be able to predict house prices in the literature, on economic production, using 372 metropolitan statistic areas in the United States from the first quarter of 1981 to the second quarter of 2008 in a panel vector error correction model. Changes in home sales are found to Granger because the growth rate of per-capita gross metropolitan product and the dynamic effects are visualized with impulse response functions. Supporting evidence for the economic impact of home sales is also found in contemporaneous regressions.

Money And Its Effect On U.S. Housing Sub-Markets: Evidence From The VAR Model

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Even though it is an area worth studying for policymakers, little research has in fact been done to observe differential effects of monetary policy on housing sub-markets; i.e., new home construction and existing home sales. Utilizing a vector autoregression (VAR) framework, this paper explores the response differentials across the two housing sub-markets in the short run. According to findings in this research, in the short run, the existing home sale market is relatively more affected by expansionary monetary policies than is the new home construction market. Thus, it is suggested policymakers should provide more motivating policies for both builders and consumers to encourage more economic activities in the new home construction market.</span></span></p>

Location, Regional Accessibility and Price Effects: Evidence from Twin Cities Home Sales

Regional location factors, with measures of regional accessibility foremost among them, exert a strong influence on urban property markets. While accessibility represents an important regional-scale factor, more local influences such as proximity to urban highway links may also positively or negatively influence the desirability of a location. In this paper, we use a cross-section of home sales in Hennepin County, Minnesota from the years 2001 through 2004, along with a set of disaggregate regional accessibility measures, to estimate the value of access to employment and resident workers. We also estimate the (dis)amenity effects of locations near major freeway links that have recently undergone, or were scheduled to undergo (as of the time period covered by the home sales), major construction to add capacity. The richness of the home sales data set allows us to control for a number of structural attributes, as well as some site characteristics, while additional neighborhood characteristics (such as income levels and local educational quality) are added from supplemental data sources. Empirical results indicate that households highly value employment access, while access to other resident workers (i.e. competition for jobs) is considered a disamenity. Proximity to local highway access points is positively associated with sale price, while proximity to the highway link itself is negatively associated with price. The paper concludes with some implications for research and practice of the concept and measurement of the relationship between location and land value.

Diyarbakır’da Mülk Satışları ve Şehir Dokusuna Etkileri (1732-1733)

Diyarbakir is a management point as the center of the region has a different importance. The sale of houses and the houses that are effective in the formation of city structure is the basis of the study. Between 1732 and 1733 home sales in the Qadi record of the documents related to the movement ever mentioned period features, prices, relationships with neighbors were investigated. The city in which different religious and social groups there are some similarities between physical structures of the houses in the city where home sales were to be similar and different between groups.

Technical Appendix

The present study measures and compares the accuracy of residents' browsing of computer-animated maps and graphs and computer-programmed Google maps in two versions of the Glengarry and Wellington-Crawford Geographical Monitoring Project (GWCGMP). Respondents answered the project's entry questions before browsing displays of the locations and timings of crime and disorder offences, fires, and home sales and prices in their neighbourhoods. Before exiting the project, they answered questions about these events piped from their entry answers and browsed displays. One hundred and seven respondents perceived approximately one-quarter of the “correct” patterns on browsed maps and trends on browsed graphs. These correct patterns and trends were inferred from time-series and linear regression analyses of data on offences, fires, and housing sales for the neighbourhoods. In addition, respondents agreed with almost one-half of comparisons between the patterns and timings of their own events and those displayed on maps and graphs. In conclusion, Web-savvy, younger, spatially active residents are inferred to have been more accurate in perceiving online map patterns and graph trends. They were more accurate than casual stay-at-home browsers, who were more likely not to remember patterns, trends, or displays than they were to perceive them incorrectly.

Listing Behaviors and Housing Market Outcomes

We examine whether, and how, listing strategies impact sale prices in residential home sales. Literatures in housing economics, negotiations, and auctions offer diverse predictions around this question. On the one hand, housing studies typically treat home prices as an objective function of property and neighborhood characteristics. Yet, the large and robust literature on anchoring effects (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974) suggests a positive relationship between listing prices and sale prices. Finally, evidence from the auctions literature suggests the opposite pattern through herding behaviors. We analyzed more than 14,000 transactions, taking into account observable property heterogeneity, geographical location and timing of the sales. We find that higher starting prices are indeed associated with higher selling prices, consistent with anchoring. For the average home in our sample, over-pricing between 10 and 20% leads to an increase in the sale price of $117-$163. This effect is particularly strong in areas with higher rates of mortgage foreclosure or serious delinquency. Additional analyses show that our results are unlikely to be driven by seller motivations or unobserved home qualities. We contrast our findings with recommendations and private beliefs of real estate agents, who provide services and advice for about 90% of home sales in the US.

Location, Regional Accessibility, and Price Effects

Regional location factors exert a strong influence on urban property markets, and measures of accessibility are foremost among them. More local influences, such as proximity to urban highway links, also may positively or negatively influence the desirability of a location. This study used a cross section of home sales in Hennepin County, Minnesota, from the years 2001 through 2004, along with a set of disaggregate regional accessibility measures, to estimate the value of access to employment and resident workers. The effects, whether as amenity or disamenity, were estimated for locations near major freeway links that had recently undergone major construction to add capacity (or were scheduled to undergo such construction) at the time of the home sales. The richness of the home sales data set allowed for control of a number of structural attributes, as well as some site characteristics. Additional neighborhood characteristics (such as income levels and local educational quality) were added from supplemental data sources. Empirical results indicated that households highly valued access to employment. Access to other resident workers (i.e., competition for jobs) was considered a disamenity. Proximity to local highway access points associated positively with sale price, whereas proximity to the highway link itself associated negatively with that price. The study concluded with some implications for research and practice of the concept and measurement of the relationship between location and land value.

Down Payment Source and Home Sales: Evidence from the American Housing Survey

A decrease in home values should make the purchase of new homes attractive to potential buyers. However, many home buyers rely on the sale of a previous home for the down payment on their new purchase. The decline in home prices between 2005 and 2009 is associated with a 40.0% reduction in the number of recent home purchases funded with a down payment obtained through the sale of a prior residence. This accounts for around 90% of the decline in the number of recent home purchases by individuals who had previously owned a home.