Holy Mosque Research Articles

Haram Lost and Found

With its great religious significance, the Holy Mosque in Makkah welcomes millions of tourists every year. The problem of misplaced objects at this holy site poses a problem for both guests and guards. In order to tackle this issue and improve worshippers' and visitors' overall experience, this study project explores the ideation, creation, and testing of a state-of-the-art mobile application called the "Lost and Found Assistance" app. This software makes use of modern technologies to expedite the process of finding misplaced items inside the Holy Mosque. The 'Lost and Found Assistance' app's main objective is to offer a workable answer to anyone who have misplaced their belongings inside the enormous Holy Mosque. It presents an easy-to-use and effective platform that enables users to report misplaced things, facilitating their prompt recovery. Additionally, it enables users to look for misplaced items, providing comfort to individuals who could have momentarily misplaced priceless items while visiting. In order to provide insight on the Holy Mosque's hallowed legacy and importance in the Islamic world, this study initiative examines the historical significance of the building. It explores the issues surrounding misplaced objects at this hallowed location, highlighting the demand for an up-to-date, technologically advanced solution. In addition, the research highlights the revolutionary role that mobile applications play in a variety of contexts as it examines the current state of lost and found services. Through an analysis of current applications and technological breakthroughs, it pinpoints chances to modify these advances to meet the particular difficulties presented by the Holy Mosque. The entire development process of the 'Lost and Found Assistance' app is described, from the first conceptualization to the design and coding stages. The project emphasizes the value of intuitive design concepts and user-friendly interfaces in making sure that the software is useful and accessible to a variety of users. An analysis of the app's usefulness in helping users find misplaced goods within the Holy Mosque completes the research endeavor. It talks about user pleasure and feedback, highlighting how the software improves users' experiences. It also looks at how widely the app might be used and offers ideas for improvements down the road. The 'Lost and Found Assistance' app helps to maintain a calm and serene atmosphere inside the Holy Mosque by utilizing contemporary technologies. The ability of technology to solve long-standing issues and improve the pilgrimage and visitor experience for millions of worshippers and tourists who visit this holy site is demonstrated by this study effort.

Structural and Environmental Safety Studies of the Holy Mosque Area Using CFD

A three-dimensional (3D) CFD model was developed, covering a square area of 3.64 km2 and comprising the Holy Mosque near its center, the actual terrain, and the main surrounding buildings. The gust wind effects on the existing cranes and the collapsed tower crane in 2015, the comfort of the pedestrians, and the air quality were studied for the first time in this area. The air quality was related to calm speed, accelerating the spreading of infectious diseases. The wind comfort levels were achieved in all selected locations. The wind speeds are generally low in the area. However, gusting wind currents appeared from limited directions, causing increments in wind speeds up to 30% and causing the tower crane to collapse. Therefore, finalizing work on some cranes is recommended soon, lowering the crane boom and stopping working on windy days or changing their places. The air quality in some sites may be relatively poor, such as at the lower terraces level. New tall buildings surrounding the mosque from the north and the east are not recommended unless studying their impacts on the air quality. Pruning north and east mounts can remarkably improve natural ventilation. Large-scale fans are another solution after a detailed simulation study.

Visitors of the Holy Mosque in Makkah: Between Influence and Impact in the Mamluk Era from 648 to 923 AH (1250 to 1517 AD)

Visitors of the Holy Mosque in Makkah: Between Influence and Impact in the Mamluk Era from 648 to 923 AH (1250 to 1517 AD)

Strengthening the architectural identity of Makkah Al-Mukarramah’s buildings: an assessment of the impact of laws and regulations

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s future vision (Vision 2030) focuses on the enhancement of the urban and architectural identity of cities, where in (2022) King Salman Charter for Architecture and Urbanism was issued to improve residents’ quality of life through the establishment of architectural environments that emphasize cultural and environmental heritage while also simulating future developments. Makkah Al-Mukarramah is distinguished by its religious uniqueness being the ground of the Holy Mosque and a set of natural factors, all of this influenced the formation of its distinctive architectural identity over time, However, for the sake of development projects, and expansion of the Haram Al-Sharif, demolition of many of Makkah’s old neighborhoods occurred leading to declining the city’s historical urban fabric, this development was governed by regulations and rules that focusing only on organizational aspects without considering the architectural identity. This crystallizes the research problem in two main points: “What are the regulations and legislation that led to Makkah losing its distinctive architectural identity?” What function may legislation and laws possibly play in the long-term rehabilitation of Makkah’s distinct architectural identity? The purpose of this research is to define the architectural and urban identity, as well as the major factors that influence them. Also, investigate the impact of the urban development of Makkah on the city’s architectural identity. And the extraction of design requirements for the control of architectural identity. The research uses a theoretical approach to understand the principles of architectural identity and character, as well as to measure the influence of laws and regulations on preserving and enhancing the architectural identity. a descriptive-analytical approach to analyze the laws and regulations related to the architectural identity of several selected cities; to come at a set of criteria that contribute to preserving the identity, following that, a questionnaire is developed for the opinion of academic architects as well as engineers specialized in this field, to try to find the flaw that caused the loss of character and to make some recommendations to correct the flaws caused by lack of attention to architectural identity.

Sustainability of religious travel and tourism: a profile deviation perspective

Purpose In recent days, there has been an increasing interest towards achieving sustainable tourism objectives globally and specifically in Saudi Arabia. The benefits can be maximized if the government is successful in attracting current pilgrims and influence their future intention to revisit the country as tourists. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to measure pilgrims’ revisit intentions to understand more about the possibility of their potential contribution towards the Saudi tourism and hospitality industry in the evolving circumstances. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses configuration theory to identify the “ideal” type of the pilgrims and compares this to the rest to establish if they differ and if that difference matters. Data were collected from 278 visitors to the Holy Mosque in Makkah, Saudi Arabia, to perform Umrah. Findings The findings show that a large deviation from the “ideal pilgrim” is negatively related to revisiting intentions and dissemination of positive word of mouth (PWOM). Research limitations/implications The development of profiles gives a better understanding of organizations or people across several dimensions looked at holistically. Fundamental to the theory is that there are only a limited number of configurations that achieve optimal performance (however defined). Originality/value The analytical approach adopted in this paper leads to achieving verbal and statistical correspondence in tests of “gestalts”. The interest is in establishing whether this difference matters to intentions to revisit and providing PWOM.

Assessment of the Holy Mosque Visitors' Knowledge and Practice Toward Viral Respiratory Tract Infections

Background/Purpose: Hajj and Umrah are one of the most significant and long-standing recurring religious mass gatherings events across the world. The mass gathering in Hajj and Umrah may provide potential environment for transmission of viral respiratory infections. Therefore, rising awareness of the Holy Mosque visitors could be helpful in reducing the risk of infections transmission.

Segmenting Umrah performers based on outcomes behaviors: a cluster analysis perspective

PurposeUmrah is a religious ritual that takes place inside the Holy Mosque in Makkah. Umrah can be performed any time during the year; however, performing Umrah in the month of Ramadan is much rewarded. Although the kingdom of Saudi Arabia is hosting this event each year, studies that focus on exploring the Holy Mosque visitor segments are scarce. This study aims to explore and describe the marketing segments of Umrah performers relative to their Umrah experience inside the Holy Mosque of Makkah. Most specifically, this study aims to explore segments of Umrah performers based on their perception of servicescape, hedonic and convenience value and the visitors’ outcome behaviors [i.e. intention to revisit and positive word of mouth (PWOM)].Design/methodology/approachMixed-method techniques of data collection [i.e. self-administered questionnaires (n = 278) and short discussions (n = 10)] were used.FindingsCluster analysis is used for data analysis. The findings revealed four clusters of Umrah performers: real, occasional, rational and passionate performers.Research limitations/implicationsThis study is a first attempt to target pilgrims based on their experience with the servicescape during the organized religious event; despite its exploratory nature, it reveals interesting insights that will be useful for managers and scholars. Although the study helps to enrich the existing knowledge on visitors’ experience and proposes some implications for practitioners, it does have some limitations. First, convenience sampling was used, and hence the findings cannot be generalized. Second, the limited period of observation did not allow the authors to provide a complete picture of the pilgrims’ behavior; for this reason, the study findings partially describe the phenomenon. Another limitation is related to the difficulty of approaching respondents from Asia or South East Asia although they constitute a significant percentage of the total Umrah performers every year; this is because of the language barrier as data was collected from only English and Arabic speakers. Hence, to overcome these limitations, it is suggested that future studies could be expanded to target Asian respondents and perhaps other nationalities; and could be undertaken in other religious contexts. Moreover, an interesting future study could be carried out to compare the same model during other religious events. Added to that, another growing area of research could be approached by researchers, such as the impact of pilgrims sharing their experiences on influencing E-PWOM.Practical implicationsThe findings reveal several implications for policymakers and stakeholders. The segmentation of Umrah performers assists destination managers, policymakers and local firms involved in managing this mass event to identify effective marketing decision-makers, business strategies and policymakers to satisfy the needs of these visitors (Disegna et al., 2011). Particularly, the identification of the key characteristics of these visitors can help destination marketers to develop a marketing mix that suits the needs of each cluster (Smith et al., 2014). Despite that the performers’ main motivation is the religious purpose, marketing strategists can attract the attention of these visitors to visit other religious, cultural and heritage sites in the country.Social implicationsEncouraging the visit to other tourist spots in Saudi has several impacts on nourishing the economy and the community. Tourism in Saudi could encourage entrepreneurs to start new ventures to satisfy the need of visitors to the country. Small-medium enterprises could benefit from tourism as they could target market niches in which leader companies are not serving. For instance, hand-made souvenirs are one of these industries that could grow to satisfy the need of visitors.Originality/valueThe results contribute to the literature of event segmentation by identifying visitors’ profiles to rarely investigated destinations. The findings reveal several implications for policymakers and stakeholders.

English

Legionella pneumophila is an important pathogen and is involved in more than 95% of cases of severe atypical pneumonia. The current study focused on the ablution water in the grand mosque in Makkah as well as water tanks in hotels surrounding the holy mosque.  A total of 100 water samples were collected from ablution water in the Haram and the hotels in the central area around the grand mosque and sent to the research laboratory of microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Umm Al Qura. Samples were filtrated and inoculated onto buffer charcoal-yeast extract agar base and incubated at 37°C in a CO2 incubator. The plates were examined after seven days of incubation. Isolated organisms were confirmed by using the “Microgen Legionella” (latex agglutination test). Out of the 100 water samples tested, 11 samples were positive for L. pneumophila. All positive water samples were from hotels water tanks. This indicates that this type of bacteria existing in the water sources. So requires further research to cover all sources of water to avoid an outbreak of this infection among the pilgrims. To avoid the possibility of this, constant maintenance of hotel water tanks regularly and the use of chlorine in specific proportions according to recommended specifications can help reduce the spread of these microbial infections.   Key words: Holy Mosque, Legionella pneumophila, water tanks, environmental.

Land value assessment based on an integrated Voronoi-geographically weighted regression approach in Makkah, Saudi Arabia

ObjectiveMakkah Al-Mukarramah is the holiest city of the Islamic world because of the presence of the Holy Mosque which is also known as Al-Haram. Due to lodging and business activities around the Holy Mosque, Makkah city has experienced a rapid urban growth and an increase in population. Hence, it is necessary to develop an efficient land value assessment method that takes into account the main factors influencing the prices of land in Makkah. MethodsThis study proposed an integrated Voronoï- Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). Voronoi diagrams were used to subdivide the space into regions which were generated based on the spatial location of land value input data. Then, the GWR regression equation related to each land value input data was applied to the entire corresponding Voronoï region. The proposed approach ensured a continuous estimation of the prices of land in the whole study area. ResultsBased on the results obtained from this research, the property price in Makkah varies between 4000 SAR/m2 and 14050 SAR/m2 according to the location of the property. Because of the holiness of Makkah, the lands nearest to the Holy Mosque have the highest prices. However, comparison with ground value data showed that there is a variation of percentage between −17% and 22%. ConclusionsThe proposed model overestimated the prices of lands around the Holy Mosque, even though the prices remain higher; this was because the Voronoï-GWR model captured the high demand on lands surrounding the Holy Mosque. Nevertheless, the proposed model underestimated the prices of land in the southern region of the study area because of the presence of mountains with new infrastructures under construction not considered.

Toleransi Pelencengan Arah Kiblat di Indonesia Perspektif Ilmu Falak dan Hukum Islam

This study discusses the limits of deviation of the direction of qibla that is allowed in facing the direction of qibla in Indonesia. This study uses qualitative descriptive analysis with an astronomical approach and Islamic law approach. The results show that there are two types of tolerance towards the qibla, namely mathematical tolerance, and sociological tolerance. Mathematically, tolerance lies in the ability to face three directions, namely the direction of the Ka'bah, the direction of the holy mosque, and the direction of the forbidden land. Sociologically, the deflection tolerance of the direction of qibla 6 ° bows to the left of the Ka'bah or the right of the Ka'bah. Mathematical qibla direction tolerance is provided for the construction of places of worship such as mosques and small mosques, while sociological of Islamic Law, qibla tolerance is allocated for people who perform prayers.

Preparedness for Mass Gatherings: A Simulation-Based Framework for Flow Control and Management Using Crowd Monitoring Data

Proactive management at mass gatherings is vital to ensure safe crowd evacuation during emergencies. The increasing number of crowd incidents and casualties during the Hajj season is one of the major concerns for authorities in Saudi Arabia. This study aims to explore and analyze crowd dynamics visiting the Prophet's (PBUH) tomb at the visiting (Ziara) corridor in the Holy Mosque of Madinah under continuous flow conditions. MassMotion was used to optimize the crowd flow rate with density restricted to a safe threshold value for efficient crowd management. A robust regression model has been developed to guide the authorities for the safe and efficient operation of the visiting corridor. The study results showed that the crowd flow beyond 9200 persons/h and waiting time in excess of 42 s in front of Moajha might lead to breakdown condition. The output of this study can be utilized by decision-makers and concerned authorities to take appropriate and timely remedial actions to ensure safe, smooth, and efficient crowd management.

Assessment of the knowledge and practices of holy mosque visitors toward coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic

Background: Since millions of Muslims visit the Holy Mosque in Makkah, it is essential to highlight that such mass gatherings carry a risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. In this study, we assessed the level of knowledge and practices among visitors to the Holy Mosque related to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of Holy Mosque visitors was conducted in Makkah from January 19, to February 9, 2020, using a self-administered electronic questionnaire. Knowledge and practices scores were compared and multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify the association between variables. Results: A total of 451 participants were interviewed, while 413 completed the questionnaire and were eligible for inclusion. The range of correct answer rate was 13.1%–93.5%. The mean knowledge score was 11.3 with a 64.9% correct response rate, while the mean practices score was 2.92 with a 73.2% correct response rate. The knowledge score was significantly different among nationalities and education levels (P < 0.05). A higher level of education was associated with better knowledge regarding SARS-CoV-2 (odds ratio 1.18, P = 0.028). Conclusions: Most of the visitors to the Holy Mosque had an appropriate level of knowledge and practices related to SARS-CoV-2 infection; however, there is room for improvement in some areas.

Sufi Feminist Immigrant Mothering

Sufi Feminist Immigrant Mothering Shabana Mir (bio) Keywords Qur'an, feminism, motherhood, immigration, culture an aching void The Qur'an tells us that when Moses was born, he, along with other male Israelite infants, was in imminent danger of being killed by Pharaonic forces. God inspired Moses' mother to place him in a basket and cast it on the river. Understandably, sending him away from certain death to an unknown fate on the river was little comfort to a mother, letting her new infant go on so fragile a vessel into a dangerous world. Her heart was sorely distressed: "On the morrow, however, an aching void grew up in the heart of the mother of Moses, and she would indeed have disclosed all about him had We not endowed her heart with enough strength to keep alive her faith [in Our promise]" (28:10).1 The heart of Moses' mother became fārigha—an Arabic word translated variously as a blank, empty, desolate, impatient, and agitated. Engulfed by a consuming anxiety, her heart was full of an encompassing unease, a total lack of solidity, like air, so empty as to be almost immaterial. This verse haunts me when I watch over my child's distress. Every agonizing parenting moment—when she burned her hand at eight months, dropping her off at daycare as a terrified two-year-old, the near-drowning she experienced at 4, and even now, whenever she feels friendless and alone—my heart has a yawning ache that nothing can soothe. I become a being of disquiet. Even when I watch over her joy, I am consumed by its evanescence, by a greedy desire for her happiness to last forever, uninterrupted. In every situation, I adopt whatever role I need to embody. I will do whatever is necessary to protect her in body, mind, and soul. Though deeply averse to conflict, I become that parent, the Mama Bear that no school staff will welcome. Prepared with the necessary evidence, I have [End Page 250] Click for larger view View full resolution Asiya finds Moses. By Rashid al-Din - Jami' al-tawarikh. Image in Public Domain. that showdown at the Individualized Education Program (IEP) meeting, only to collapse into tears afterward. When a textbook is racist and Islamophobic, I will write that email and that follow-up. When a camp leader anglicizes her Arabic name, I am ready for the conversation about cultural assimilation. I am there to address any boy who pushes her around. I am there to assure her that she has no need to respect male religious authority. I am also there to remind her that my own authority is temporary, flawed, and subject to critique. It is a lot to do. hagar's immortal anxiety God created one hundred units of mercy on the Day He created the heavens and the earth. Each one of them can contain all that is between the heaven and the earth. Of them, he put one on earth, through which a mother has compassion for her children and animals and birds have compassion for one another.2 Pre-Islamic Arabs were familiar with Abraham and they revered the Holy Mosque that he and Ishmael built at Mecca. Muhammad's task was to renew the original religion of Abraham, the true nature of humanity, devotion to One God, the Truth. Muslims today visit the same Mosque for the Hajj, the annual pilgrimage to renew one's covenant with God, [End Page 251] chanting, "I am here, my God, I am here." But the passion story of the pilgrimage is not only about Abraham. Muslim scholars have read the rites of pilgrimage as seeking and seeing One in multiplicity, offering total devotion and obedience to God, and seeing past the Attributes to the Essence of God. The eighth-century saint Rabi'a of Basra said, "I do not seek the Ka'ba but its Owner." Another reading of Hajj emphasizes the sanctity of places and objects that have witnessed the presence and passion of God's Friends. One of the rites of Hajj is Sa'ee (literally, to walk, run, or strive) between the hills of Safa and Marwa. Sa...

Toward an effective analysis of public transportation demand factors in car-dependent cities: case of Makkah City, Saudi Arabia

ABSTRACT A fundamental requirement for successful and effective public transportation planning is analyzing and understanding the factors that affect demand. This is particularly important for fast-growing and car-dependent cities with a high influx of visitors, such as Makkah City in Saudi Arabia. In this study, some factors that affect public transportation demand in Makkah were analyzed, and a geographic information system–based composite public transportation demand index (CPTDI) was established. Indicators of public transportation demand were placed in three groups defining social need, network need, and land use. These indicators were combined into the CPTDI to define the overall public transportation demand at the district level. When applied to actual data, the indicators demonstrated that high public transportation demand was concentrated in the inner districts surrounding the Holy Mosque within the first ring road and the main arterials leading toward it. The CPTDI was found to depict the public transportation demand distribution in a realistic manner when compared with the separate indicators. The CPTDI would facilitate faster and more efficient public transportation planning based on demand and improve understanding of the consequences of system planning and implementation.

Framing the Sanctuary: A Study of Paintings on Sinan’s Domed Arcade in the Grand Mosque of Mecca

ABSTRACT This paper presents a study and analysis of no-longer extant paintings found originally inside the sixteenth century domed arcade which framed the Holy sanctuary in Mecca. It interlinks information obtained through technical analysis of samples taken from these paintings, with information about the history of the arcade. Beyond providing a brief history of this understudied domed arcade, the research yields information about the production of their paintings and the range of materials used and is intended to shed light on the oldest section of the Holy Mosque in Mecca. Information surrounding the dismantling, conservation, and partial reintegration of this arcade back into the expanded courtyard in Mecca’s holy sanctuary is also provided.

Motivation for Muslim Travellers to the Holy City of Jerusalem

This paper discusses and explores empirical and personal insights into religious tourism and pilgrimage, exploring it from a Muslim pilgrims’ perspective, reflecting on characterisations and motivations and discussing the sacred Journey of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) from the Holy Mosque (Makkah) to Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. Travel is important for Muslims. Indeed, it was during the journey of Miraj that Allah ordered Muslims to pray the five daily prayers. The concept of Islam is not merely praising Allah (SWT). Islam also means to serve society according to the directions of Allah (SWT) and the teachings of his final Prophet, Muhammad (PBUH). Islam strongly prohibits divisiveness of community or society in terms of sociological groups, racism and sectarianism. Thus, the main purpose of Muslim visitors when visiting pilgrimage sites is holistic, to enhance their knowledge, find pleasure, love and to offer dedication. Muslim visitor’s motivation for pilgrimage to sites such as Al Aqsa Mosque is to offer prayers and visit the holy site. This paper will begin with a brief discussion on the Islamic approach to the teachings of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) and explain the principles on which Islamic values for society are based according to the teachings Allah (SWT) and the perfect examples of his Prophet Muhammad (PBUH). The paper will also explore the journey of Miraj and will offer discussion on pilgrimage engagement in religious rituals at the holy city of Jerusalem.

Health and Safety in Crowded Large Size Buildings: The Effect of Perceived Safety on User Behaviour in the Holy Mosque

Abstract Crowded large space buildings are today becoming highly desirable facilities for communities, towns, and cities. Due to stricter health, safety requirements, and environmental effects, such buildings are of greater interest for research. The buildings are used for a variety of functions, including sporting, entertainment, and religious events. The Holy Mosque in Makkah Saudi Arabia is an excellent example of a crowded large space building with a maximum capacity reaching up to 2 million users, especially at the Hajj and Ramadan periods. Quite often, designer and facility managers of crowded large space buildings pay keen attention to normative and substantive (objective) safety, but research shows that perceived (subjective) safety which should also be important, is clear overlooked. To prove the significance of perceived safety, a theory has been adopted, which states that a reduction in perceived safety (PS) will negatively affect the user behaviour (UB) resulting in the occurrence of a disaster in crowded large size buildings. Initial research undertaken by the authors have identified 10 key factors affecting subjective safety in crowded large space buildings, this stage of the study is an empirical study to aimed at establishing how significant each factor affects PS and the effect of perceived safety on the UB in such types of buildings. The Holy Mosque was used as a case study. The research adopted the quantitative research methodology by collecting primary data using a group-administered questionnaire in electronic devices such as iPad from more than 1,940 Hajj pilgrims coming from 62 countries. This was analysed by SPSS and AMOS 22 for confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equation modeling (SEM) to test the interrelationships between the 10 identified factors and PS or between PS and UB through several hypotheses. The research has demonstrated that there is a significant influence on PS by most of the established factors and that PS has a significant influence on the behaviour of pilgrims in the Holy Mosque.

Social Force Modeling of the Pedestrian Motion in the Mataf

Two models for the motion in the Mataf of the Holy Mosque of Makkah that are applicable to any so-called social force or agent-based model are presented. The first model assigns a desired distance to the Kaaba to each pilgrim. The second model assumes that pilgrims desire to get as close as possible to the Kaaba until a tolerable density is reached. Both models are realistic: image data shows behaviours of both types. The models are very simple to incorporate into any computational crowd dynamics code, and yield results that correlate surprisingly well with observed data.

Al-Asfiya School in Fallujah: Its Scholarly and Intellectual Impact Prof. Yassin Nasser AlKhatib Al-Kubaisi As a Model

The ”Asifyah” school in Fallujah has enjoyed an enormous scholarly and intellectual impact, not only in Fallujah but also across Iraq, the Arab and the larger Islamic world. This is highlighted by the great scientific output of the school’sscholarSheikh Abdul Aziz Salem Al-Samarrai, along with the rest of the students of the school who influenced the Arab and Islamic library with a variety of works, which included the sciences of Sharia, language, philosophy, and logic. One of the most famous students of this school is the scholar Dr. Yassin Al-Khatib Al-Kubaisi, who has left a substantial scientific legacy in almost sixty works and his presence as a teacher in the Holy Mosque and Umm Al-Qura University in Mecca, as well as his radio lessons broadcast in Iraq, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Indonesia.&#x0D; Keywords: Intellectual Scientific Efforts Yassin Al-Khatib.

A Novel Phase Space Reconstruction- (PSR-) Based Predictive Algorithm to Forecast Atmospheric Particulate Matter Concentration

The prediction of atmospheric particulate matter (APM) concentration is essential to reduce adverse effects on human health and to enforce emission restrictions. The dynamics of APM are inherently nonlinear and chaotic. Phase space reconstruction (PSR) is one of the widely used methods for chaotic time series analysis. The APM mass concentrations are an outcome of complex anthropogenic contributors evolving with time, which may operate on multiple time scales. Thus, the traditional single-variable PSR-based prediction algorithm in which data points of last embedding dimension are used as a target set may fail to account for multiple time scales inherent in APM concentrations. To address this issue, we propose a novel PSR-based scientific solution that accounts for the information contained at multiple time scales. Different machine learning algorithms are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed and traditional PSR techniques for predicting mass concentrations of particulate matter up to 2.5 micron (PM2.5), up to 10 micron (PM10.0), and ratio of PM2.5/PM10.0. Hourly time series data of PM2.5 and PM10.0 mass concentrations are collected from January 2014 to September 2015 at the Masfalah air quality monitoring station (couple of kilometers from the Holy Mosque in Makkah, Saudi Arabia). The performances of various learning algorithms are evaluated using RMSE and MAE. The results demonstrated that prediction error of all the machine learning techniques is smaller for the proposed PSR approach compared to traditional approach. For PM2.5, FFNN leads to best results (both RMSE and MAE 0.04 μgm−3), followed by SVR-L (RMSE 0.01 μgm−3 and MAE 0.09 μgm−3) and RF (RMSE 1.27 μgm−3 and MAE 0.86 μgm−3). For PM10.0, SVR-L leads to best results (both RMSE and MAE 0.06 μgm−3), followed by FFNN (RMSE 0.13 μgm−3 and MAE 0.09 μgm−3) and RF (RMSE 1.60 μgm−3 and MAE 1.16 μgm−3). For PM2.5/PM10.0, FFNN is the best and accurate method for prediction (0.001 for both RMSE and MAE), followed by RF (0.02 for both RMSE and MAE) and SVR-L (RMSE 0.05 μgm−3 and MAE 0.04).