HIV Incidence In sub-Saharan Africa Research Articles

Investigating the Associations between Drought, Poverty, High-Risk Sexual Behaviours, and HIV Incidence in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cross-Sectional Study

Climate change is increasing the likelihood of drought in sub-Saharan Africa, where HIV prevalence is high. Drought could increase HIV transmission through various mediating mechanisms; we investigated these associations. We used data on people aged 15–59 from Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment surveys from 2016 in Eswatini, Lesotho, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. Survey data were geospatially linked to precipitation data for 2014–2016, with local droughts defined as cumulative rainfall between 2014 and 2016 being in < 15th percentile of all 2-year periods over 1981–2016. Using multivariable logistic regression, stratified by sex and rural/urban residence, we examined associations between (a) drought and poverty, (b) wealth quintiles and sexual behaviours (transactional, high-risk, and intergenerational sex), (c) sexual behaviours and recently acquiring HIV, and (d) drought and recent HIV. Among 102,081 people, 31.5% resided in areas affected by drought during 2014–2016. Experiencing drought was positively associated with poverty for women and men in rural, but not urban, areas. For each group, increasing wealth was negatively associated with transactional sex. For rural women, intergenerational sex was positively associated with wealth. Women reporting each sexual behaviour had higher odds of recent HIV, with strong associations seen for high-risk sex, and, for urban women, intergenerational sex, with weaker associations among men. Women in rural areas who had been exposed to drought had higher odds of having recently acquired HIV (2.10 [95%CI: 1.17–3.77]), but not women in urban areas, or men. Droughts could potentially increase HIV transmission through increasing poverty and then sexual risk behaviours, particularly among women in rural areas.

The HIV and sexually transmitted infection syndemic following mass scale-up of combination HIV interventions in two communities in southern Uganda: a population-based cross-sectional study

Combination HIV prevention and treatment interventions (CHIs) have led to substantial declines in HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa; however, population-level data on non-HIV sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the context of CHIs are rare. We aimed to assess STI burden following scale-up of CHIs in Uganda. The Sexually Transmitted Infection Prevalence Study (STIPS) was a cross-sectional study nested within a population-based cohort among inland agrarian and Lake Victoria fishing populations in southern Uganda. STIPS enrolled consenting residents aged 18-49 years in two communities (one inland and one fishing) between May and October, 2019, and measured the prevalence of chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomonas, syphilis, and herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2). Between May 27, 2019 and Oct 25, 2019, STIPS enrolled 1825 participants. HIV prevalence was 14·0% among the inland population and 39·8% among the fishing population, with about 90% HIV viral load suppression in both communities. Among inland and fishing populations, chlamydia prevalence was 9·6% (95% CI 7·9-11·7) and 9·9% (8·1-12·0), gonorrhoea prevalence 5·0% (3·8-6·7) and 8·4% (6·8-10·5), trichomonas prevalence 9·4% (7·7-11·5) and 12·2% (10·2-14·5), and HSV-2 prevalence 43·0% (39·9-46·3) and 64·4% (61·3-67·6), respectively. In the fishing population, syphilis seropositivity was 24·2% (21·5-27·2) with 9·4% (7·7-11·5) having high-titre (rapid plasma reagin ≥1:8) infection, including 16·9% (11·9-24·0%) of men living with HIV. Prevalence of at least one curable STI (chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomonas, or high-titre syphilis) was 51% higher among people living with HIV (vs HIV negative; adjusted prevalence risk ratio [PRR] 1·51; 95% CI 1·27-1·78), including among pregnant women (adjusted PRR 1·87, 1·11-3·17), with no differences by HIV suppression status. Despite near universal HIV treatment, STI burden remains extremely high in southern Uganda, particularly among people living with HIV. There is an urgent need to integrate STI care with HIV services in African settings. National Institutes of Health.

Incidence of HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2000\u20132015: The Interplay Between Social Determinants and Behavioral Risk Factors

HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa declined substantially between 2000 and 2015. In this analysis, we consider the relative associations of nine structural and individual determinants with this decline. A linear mixed effects model of logged HIV incidence rates versus determinants was used. The data were from mathematical modelling as part of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study in 43 sub-Saharan African countries. We used forwards selection to determine a single final model of HIV incidence rate. The association of economic variables and HIV knowledge with incidence was found to be driven by education, while ART coverage had the largest impact on other determinants’ coefficients. In the final model, education years per capita contributed the most to explaining variation in HIV incidence rates; a 1-year increase in mean education years was associated with a 0.39 (− 0.56; − 0.2, t = − 4.48 p < 0.01) % decline in incidence rate while a unit increase in ART coverage was associated with a 0.81 (− 1.34; − 0.28, t = − 3.01, p < 0.01) % decline in incidence rate.

The effect of gender inequality on HIV incidence in Sub-Saharan Africa

ObjectiveWe aimed to quantify the extent to which country-level trends in HIV incidence in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) were influenced by gender inequalities, measured by gender gaps in educational attainment, income, and a Gender Inequality Index (GII). Study designWe examined the relation between gender inequality and HIV incidence using country-level panel data from 24 SSA countries for the period between 2000 and 2016. MethodsOur goal was to estimate the relation between within-country changes in gender inequality and HIV incidence. We compared results from fixed effects and random effects models for estimating the effect of gender inequalities on changes in HIV incidence. Based on the results of the Hausman test, the fixed effects model was selected as the preferred approach. ResultsHIV incidence decreased by nearly one-half over the period from 2000 to 2016. We estimated that a one percent increase in the GII was associated with a 1.6 percent increase in HIV incidence (95% confidence interval = [0.21%; 3.00%]), after adjusting by country-level socio-economic and governance variables. ConclusionsOur study suggests that addressing gender inequalities is a potential strategy to reduce HIV incidence in the SSA region. To control HIV infection, policymakers and public health practitioners should support relevant interventions for promoting gender equality. Further work is needed to identify specific interventions to improve gender inequality and to examine their impacts on changes in HIV incidence.

Incident HIV among pregnant and breast-feeding women in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

A previous meta-analysis reported high HIV incidence among pregnant and breast-feeding women in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but limited evidence of elevated risk of HIV acquisition during pregnancy or breast-feeding when compared with nonpregnant periods. The rapidly evolving HIV prevention and treatment landscape since publication of this review may have important implications for maternal HIV incidence. Systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched four databases and abstracts from relevant conferences through 1 December 2018, for literature on maternal HIV incidence in SSA. We used random-effects meta-analysis to summarize incidence rates and ratios, and to estimate 95% prediction intervals. We evaluated potential sources of heterogeneity with random-effects meta-regression. Thirty-seven publications contributed 100 758 person-years of follow-up. The estimated average HIV incidence rate among pregnant and breast-feeding women was 3.6 per 100 person-years (95% prediction interval: 1.2--11.1), while the estimated average associations between pregnancy and risk of HIV acquisition, and breast-feeding and risk of HIV acquisition, were close to the null. Wide 95% prediction intervals around summary estimates highlighted the variability of HIV incidence across populations of pregnant and breast-feeding women in SSA. Average HIV incidence appeared associated with age, partner HIV status, and calendar time. Average incidence was highest among studies conducted pre-2010 (4.1/100 person-years, 95% prediction interval: 1.1--12.2) and lowest among studies conducted post-2014 (2.1/100 person-years, 95% prediction interval: 0.7--6.5). Substantial HIV incidence among pregnant and breast-feeding women in SSA, even in the current era of combination HIV prevention and treatment, underscores the need for prevention tailored to high-risk pregnant and breast-feeding women.

The effect of HIV educational interventions on HIV-related knowledge, condom use, and HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundAs high stigmatization of HIV and relatively low knowledge of HIV transmission and prevention measures persist in Sub-Saharan Africa, the improvement of HIV-related knowledge, and the evaluation of which types of interventions are most effective in this regard, is an important aspect of further prevention efforts. In addition, it is of interest to assess whether improvements in HIV-related knowledge may actually lead to increased engagement in preventive behaviours and ultimately lower HIV transmission. This study therefore aims to systematically review and meta-analyse the evidence for the effect of HIV-related knowledge interventions on 1) the improvement of HIV-related knowledge, 2) subsequent risk reduction behaviour (condom use), 3) lower incidence of HIV infection.MethodsA literature search was conducted using the Embase and Medline databases, returning 746 after duplicate removal. Following abstract and full-text screening, 36 studies were ultimately included in the final review. Meta-analyses were conducted in R, using random-effects models, for the HIV-related knowledge, condom use, and HIV incidence outcomes, where sufficient data were available.ResultsInterventions assessed in the reviewed studies varied, including computer-based interventions, mass media campaigns, and peer education interventions. The interventions were generally found to be effective at improving HIV-related knowledge in the target population, with 10 studies reporting improved knowledge of risk reduction through condom use in the intervention group (out of 11 studies reporting data for this outcome), with 6 reporting these differences as significant (p < 0.05). Regarding knowledge of transmission routes, studies assessing peer education interventions often reported significant improvements in the intervention group. Meta-analysis results showed significantly higher odds among the intervention groups of correct knowledge of: risk reduction through condom use (OR: 3.09, 95%CI: 1.83–5.22, p < 0.0001), sexual transmission of HIV (OR: 5.86, 95%CI: 2.65–12.97, p < 0.001) and transmission through sharps (OR: 4.35, 95%CI = 3.21–5.90, p < 0.001), but non-significantly lower odds of HIV infection (OR: 0.97, 95%CI: 0.66–1.41, p = 0.854).ConclusionPeer-education-based interventions appear to be particularly effective in facilitating the uptake of HIV-related knowledge, particularly pertaining to transmission routes. There is some evidence that improved knowledge of HIV transmission and prevention facilitates increased subsequent engagement in preventive measures, although this requires further exploration.Trial registrationPROSPERO Number: CRD42018090600

Migration and risk of HIV acquisition in Rakai, Uganda: a population-based cohort study

SummaryBackground:In sub-Saharan Africa, migrants typically have higher HIV prevalence than non-migrants; however, whether HIV acquisition precedes or follows migration is generally unknown. Here, we assessed risk of HIV following migration.Methodology:We assessed the association between migration and HIV acquisition using prospective data from HIV-negative participants aged 15–49 enrolled in an open population-based cohort in Rakai, Uganda between 1999 and 2015. Individuals were classified as recent in-migrants if they moved into study communities within the prior two years, non-recent migrants (>2 years in community), or permanent residents with no migration history. Poisson regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) of HIV associated with residence status with adjustment for demographics, sexual behaviors, and time.Results:15,187 HIV-negative individuals were followed for 89,292 person-years of whom 29% (n=4451) were ever in-migrants. There were 841 incident HIV events, including 243 (29%) among inmigrants. Relative to permanent residents, HIV incidence was significantly increased among recent inmigrants among women (1.92/100 pys in recent migrants vs. 0.93/100 pys in permanent residents; adjIRR=1.74, 95%CI: 1.12–2.71) and men (1.52/100 pys vs 0.84/100 pys; adjIRR=1.74, 95%CI: 1.12–2.71), but was not among non-recent in-migrants. HIV incidence declined over time with scale-up of combination HIV prevention among permanent residents and non-recent in-migrants, but was unchanged among recent in-migrants.Conclusion:The first two years after migration are associated with increased risk of HIV acquisition. Findings highlight the need for prevention programs focused on migrants to reduce HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa.

HPTN 071 (PopART): rationale and design of a cluster-randomised trial of the population impact of an HIV combination prevention intervention including universal testing and treatment - a study protocol for a cluster randomised trial.

BackgroundEffective interventions to reduce HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa are urgently needed. Mathematical modelling and the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 052 trial results suggest that universal HIV testing combined with immediate antiretroviral treatment (ART) should substantially reduce incidence and may eliminate HIV as a public health problem. We describe the rationale and design of a trial to evaluate this hypothesis.Methods/DesignA rigorously-designed trial of universal testing and treatment (UTT) interventions is needed because: i) it is unknown whether these interventions can be delivered to scale with adequate uptake; ii) there are many uncertainties in the models such that the population-level impact of these interventions is unknown; and ii) there are potential adverse effects including sexual risk disinhibition, HIV-related stigma, over-burdening of health systems, poor adherence, toxicity, and drug resistance.In the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial, 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa (total population 1.2 m) will be randomly allocated to three arms. Arm A will receive the full PopART combination HIV prevention package including annual home-based HIV testing, promotion of medical male circumcision for HIV-negative men, and offer of immediate ART for those testing HIV-positive; Arm B will receive the full package except that ART initiation will follow current national guidelines; Arm C will receive standard of care. A Population Cohort of 2,500 adults will be randomly selected in each community and followed for 3 years to measure the primary outcome of HIV incidence. Based on model projections, the trial will be well-powered to detect predicted effects on HIV incidence and secondary outcomes.DiscussionTrial results, combined with modelling and cost data, will provide short-term and long-term estimates of cost-effectiveness of UTT interventions. Importantly, the three-arm design will enable assessment of how much could be achieved by optimal delivery of current policies and the costs and benefits of extending this to UTT.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT01900977.

Sources of HIV incidence among stable couples in sub‐Saharan Africa

IntroductionThe recent availability of efficacious prevention interventions among stable couples offers new opportunities for reducing HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the dynamics of HIV incidence among stable couples is critical to inform HIV prevention strategy across sub-Saharan Africa.MethodsWe quantified the sources of HIV incidence arising among stable couples in sub-Saharan Africa using a cohort-type mathematical model parameterized by nationally representative data. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were incorporated.ResultsHIV incidence arising among stable concordant HIV-negative couples contribute each year, on average, 29.4% of total HIV incidence; of those, 22.5% (range: 11.1%–39.8%) are infections acquired by one of the partners from sources external to the couple, less than 1% are infections acquired by both partners from external sources within a year and 6.8% (range: 3.6%–11.6%) are transmissions to the uninfected partner in the couple in less than a year after the other partner acquired the infection from an external source. The mean contribution of stable HIV sero-discordant couples to total HIV incidence is 30.4%, with most of those, 29.7% (range: 9.1%–47.9%), being due to HIV transmissions from the infected to the uninfected partner within the couple. The remaining incidence, 40.2% (range: 23.7%–64.6%), occurs among persons not in stable couples.ConclusionsClose to two-thirds of total HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa occur among stable couples; however, only half of this incidence is attributed to HIV transmissions from the infected to the uninfected partner in the couple. The remaining incidence is acquired through extra-partner sex. Substantial reductions in HIV incidence can be achieved only through a prevention approach that targets all modes of HIV exposure among stable couples and among individuals not in stable couples.

Comparing Direct Costs of Facility-Based Shang Ring Provision Versus a Standard Surgical Technique for Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision in Zambia

Rapid scale-up of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) is needed to realize potential reductions in HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa. New disposable VMMC devices such as the Shang Ring may offer several advantages over standard surgery, including lower costs. We compared direct costs of the Shang Ring and dorsal slit techniques for delivery of VMMC in the context of a randomized-controlled trial carried out in Zambia in 2011. Information on direct costs of clinician time, disposable supplies, and reusable medical instruments were collected by study staff. During the trial, the direct cost of 1 VMMC procedure using the Shang Ring device was US $18.21, whereas the direct cost of using dorsal slit was US $17.67. Higher costs of clinician time related to dorsal slit VMMC were offset by higher costs of disposable supplies with the Shang Ring approach. Although direct costs were roughly equivalent during this small-scale trial, with the increased demand from scaling up VMMC, a Shang Ring team could provide services at a substantially lower average total cost due to the potential for more intensive use of staff and other fixed resources.

Assessing effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of concurrency reduction for HIV prevention.

We estimated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of changes in concurrent sexual partnerships in reducing the spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. Using data from Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia, we estimated country-specific concurrency behaviour from sexual behaviour survey data on the number of partners in the past 12 months, and we developed a network model to compare the impact of three behaviour changes on the HIV epidemic: (1) changes in concurrent partnership patterns to strict monogamy; (2) partnership reduction among those with the greatest number of partners; and (3) partnership reduction among all individuals. We estimated the number of new HIV infections over 10 years and the cost per infection averted. Given our assumptions and model structure, we find that reducing concurrency among high-risk individuals averts the most infections and increasing monogamy the least (11.7% versus 8.7% reduction in new infections, on average, for a 10% reduction in concurrent partnerships). A campaign that costs US$1 per person annually is likely cost-saving if it reduces concurrency by 9% on average, given our baseline estimates of concurrency. In sensitivity analysis, the rank ordering of behaviour change scenarios was unaffected by potential over-estimation of concurrency, though the number of infections averted decreased and the cost per HIV infection averted increased. Concurrency reduction programmes may be effective and cost-effective in reducing HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa if they can achieve even modest impacts at similar costs to past mass media campaigns in the region. Reduced concurrency among high-risk individuals appears to be most effective in reducing HIV incidence, but concurrency reduction in other risk groups may yield nearly as much benefit.

Population-level effect of potential HSV2 prophylactic vaccines on HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa

Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV2) infection increases HIV transmission. We explore the impact of a potential prophylactic HSV2 vaccination on HIV incidence in Africa using STDSIM an individual-based model. A campaign that achieved 70% coverage over 5 years with a vaccine that reduced susceptibility to HSV2 acquisition and HSV2 reactivation by 75% for 10 years, reduced HIV incidence by 30–40% after 20 years (range 4–66%). Over 20 years, in most scenarios fewer than 100 vaccinations were required to avert one HIV infection. HSV2 vaccines could have a substantial impact on HIV incidence. Intensified efforts are needed to develop an effective HSV2 vaccine.