Incident HIV among pregnant and breast-feeding women in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Abstract

A previous meta-analysis reported high HIV incidence among pregnant and breast-feeding women in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but limited evidence of elevated risk of HIV acquisition during pregnancy or breast-feeding when compared with nonpregnant periods. The rapidly evolving HIV prevention and treatment landscape since publication of this review may have important implications for maternal HIV incidence. Systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched four databases and abstracts from relevant conferences through 1 December 2018, for literature on maternal HIV incidence in SSA. We used random-effects meta-analysis to summarize incidence rates and ratios, and to estimate 95% prediction intervals. We evaluated potential sources of heterogeneity with random-effects meta-regression. Thirty-seven publications contributed 100 758 person-years of follow-up. The estimated average HIV incidence rate among pregnant and breast-feeding women was 3.6 per 100 person-years (95% prediction interval: 1.2--11.1), while the estimated average associations between pregnancy and risk of HIV acquisition, and breast-feeding and risk of HIV acquisition, were close to the null. Wide 95% prediction intervals around summary estimates highlighted the variability of HIV incidence across populations of pregnant and breast-feeding women in SSA. Average HIV incidence appeared associated with age, partner HIV status, and calendar time. Average incidence was highest among studies conducted pre-2010 (4.1/100 person-years, 95% prediction interval: 1.1--12.2) and lowest among studies conducted post-2014 (2.1/100 person-years, 95% prediction interval: 0.7--6.5). Substantial HIV incidence among pregnant and breast-feeding women in SSA, even in the current era of combination HIV prevention and treatment, underscores the need for prevention tailored to high-risk pregnant and breast-feeding women.