Historical Earthquakes Research Articles

Effects on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Estimates That Result from Nonuniqueness in Declustering an Earthquake Catalog

ABSTRACT Declustering a seismicity catalog to obtain a background seismicity model for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is not a uniquely defined process. Zaliapin and Ben-Zion (2020) present a method for randomly thinning a complete catalog by removing nearest-neighbor earthquakes. The number of events in the residual catalog depends on a continuous parameter, α0, called the “cluster threshold.” Varying α0 results in a family of residual catalogs, and when enough events are removed the catalog is nearly Poissonian and can be considered declustered. This family of thinned catalogs is used to generate a corresponding family of background seismicity models, which in turn are used to find the probabilistic seismic hazard on an east–west profile across California. Additional models are developed by renormalizing the thinned Zaliapin and Ben-Zion (2020) catalogs to the catalog rate of earthquakes with moment magnitude Mw≥5 and from the maximum shaking earthquake catalog of Anderson et al. (2021). Adding fault contributions, the simplified estimate of the hazards with probability of exceedance of 2% in 50 yr are comparable to the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). Where faults dominate the hazard, the method of thinning has little effect. The range of hazard estimates from the set of background models alone illustrate the range of effects of catalog thinning for any location where faults do not dominate. The spread of background hazard estimates at most sites is generally within a multiplicative factor of ∼2 of the hazard estimated from a catalog declustered for the 2018 NSHM. However, the spread in the estimates is very large in the vicinity of aftershock zones of large earthquakes. The family of randomly thinned catalogs, including alternative smoothing parameters and optional rescaling, may span the body and range of background hazard that can be inferred from the known history of earthquakes.

Continental block motion in the Northern Andes from GPS measurements

SUMMARYNorthwestern South America is a plate boundary zone where the Nazca, Caribbean and South American plates interact to produce a wide area of active continental deformation from the Gulf of Guayaquil (latitude 3°S) to Venezuela. Previous studies have identified a ∼2000-km-long continental sliver, referred as the North Andean Sliver (NAS), squeezed between the Nazca, Caribbean and South American plates and escaping at ∼1 cm yr−1 northeastward with respect to South America. Subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the NAS has produced a sequence of large and great earthquakes during the 20th century along the coast of Ecuador and Colombia. Large crustal earthquakes up to magnitude 7.7 have been documented along the proposed eastern boundary of the NAS. However, active tectonics data, historical and recent earthquakes all indicate active fault systems within the NAS, possibly resulting from the interaction of several tectonic blocks. Here, we derive an extensive horizontal velocity field using continuous and episodic GNSS data from 1994 to 2019.9, covering northern Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Panama and Venezuela. We model the GNSS velocity field using a kinematic elastic block approach that simultaneously solves for rigid tectonic block rotations and interseismic coupling along the subduction interfaces and along major crustal faults. In contrast to previous results that considered a single rigid NAS, our dense GNSS velocity field demonstrates that the NAS undergoes significant internal deformation and cannot be modelled as single rigid block. We find that block kinematics in the northern Andes are well described by the rotation of 6 tectonic blocks, showing increasing eastward motion from south to north. The Eastern boundary of the sliver is defined by a right-lateral transpressive fault system accommodating 5.6–17 mm yr−1 of motion. Fragmentation of the NAS occurs through several fault systems with slip rates of 2–4 mm yr−1. Slow reverse motion is found across the sub-Andean domain in Ecuador and northern Peru at 2–4 mm yr−1, marking a transitional area between the NAS and stable South America. In contrast, such a transitional sub-Andean domain does not exist in Colombia and western Venezuela. At the northwestern corner of Colombia, fast (∼15 mm yr−1) eastward motion of the Panama block with respect to the NAS results in arc-continent collision. We propose that the Uramita fault and Eastern Panama Deformed Zone define the current Panama/NAS boundary, accommodating 6 and 15 mm yr−1 of relative motion, respectively. A fraction of the Panama motion appears to transfer northeastward throughout the San Jacinto fold belt and as far east as longitude ∼75°W. Along the Caribbean coast, our model confirms, slow active subduction at ∼4.5 mm yr−1 along the South Caribbean Deformed Belt offshore northern Colombia and a relatively uniform rate of ∼1–2 mm yr−1 offshore northern Venezuela. Along the Nazca/NAS subduction interface, interseismic coupling shows a first-order correlations between highly locked patches and large past earthquake ruptures. These patches are separated by narrow zones of low/partial coupling where aseismic transients are observed. Compared to previous studies, our interseismic coupling model highlights the presence of deep coupling down to 70 km in Ecuador.

Shaking table study on rubber-sand mixture cored composite block as low-cost isolation bearing for rural houses

Historical and recent earthquakes have caused severe damage to rural houses worldwide, which are often characterized by low story heights, high stiffness, and limited budgets. In this regard, low-cost seismic isolation strategies hold great potential for protecting low- and medium-rise buildings. This paper proposes a novel rubber sand mixture cored composite block (RSMCB) as a low-cost alternative to conventional expensive isolation bearings. The construction of the RSMCB involves filling the hollow of a plain concrete block with a lightweight material made of granulated rubber and natural sand and then covering the surface with a square brick slightly smaller than the hollow's size. To evaluate the effectiveness of the RSMCB, a series of shaking table tests were conducted, covering factors of rubber content, cover plate size, upper block mass, and paving mode. The results indicate that the utilization of the RSMCB layer effectively mitigates large displacement in the superstructure during the cyclic loading, thereby functioning as an energy dissipation and seismic reduction measure. Moreover, the isolation effect of the RSMCB layer increases with the seismic intensity attributed to the nonlinear variation of dynamic parameters of the mixed granular material with shear strain. These findings suggest that the proposed isolation strategy improves the strength and vertical stiffness of the original sand-rubber layer, making it a desirable and sustainable solution for seismic design applications in rural housing.

Improving seimic hazard assessment in the Mediterranean Region

This paper is intended as a short presentation of the main limitations affecting seismic hazard assessment, revisiting possible methods available in the literature to be applied for this purpose. The convergence of the African Plate with the Eurasian Plate is the cause of the high seismic activity characterizing the Mediterranean region, with particular intensity in its eastern part. It is clear that the associated seismic risk requires appropriate measures for its mitigation. Seismic risk, the amount of resources that the community is expected to pay to earthquakes in the long term, is the product of three factors, such as seismic hazard, vulnerability and value of the exposed goods. As earthquakes cannot be prevented, seismic risk can be mitigated by improving our knowledge of seismic hazard, which is largely based on statistical analysis of historical earthquake catalogs. Nevertheless, historical records are affected by problems of reliability, completeness and shortness, as they commonly span time lengths of the same order of magnitude or even shorter than the inter-event time of the strongest earthquakes produced by specific seismic sources. In this respect, alternative methods can be proposed for integrating and improving our knowledge of seismogenic processes, and estimating both time-independent and time-dependent occurrence rates of strong earthquakes. We propose the application of physics-based earthquake simulators, requiring the knowledge of a robust geological-geophysical seismogenic model.

Permanent displacement characteristics of landslides taking into consideration the frequency and energy behaviour of historical seismic ground motions

Landslides often occur along motorways in earthquake-prone areas, leading to casualties and the loss of property. Most previous studies have applied the simplified Newmark method to assess landslide susceptibility at a regional scale, ignoring the characteristics of local ground motions. In this study, we investigated permanent displacement characteristics of three potential landslide areas along the Dayong Expressway using the rigorous Newmark method that considers the frequency and energy characteristics of historical seismic waves. First, the frequency characteristics of historical earthquakes in the study areas were analysed using the fast Fourier transform method and were adopted as input ground motions in calculating the Newmark displacement. Next, the critical accelerations of the three study areas were computed. Parameters such as the elevation, soil layer thickness and soil strength that are required for critical acceleration calculations were obtained using high-precision ( c. 3 cm) unmanned aerial vehicle mapping technology, drilling operations and laboratory tests. Finally, the Newmark displacement was calculated and the landslide susceptibility of the study areas was evaluated. The results showed that the predominant frequency of historical seismic waves in the study areas was 0.38–3.36 Hz, indicating low-frequency characteristics. The results also indicated that the frequency and energy characteristics of the seismic ground motions significantly influenced the Newmark displacement. The maximum Newmark displacement under different waveforms at Damieju ranged from 2 to 18 cm. Under the most dangerous conditions, all three areas showed a potential for landslides. The maximum Newmark displacement positively correlated with the energy of the predominant frequency. The large-energy and low-frequency characteristics of the seismic wave correspond to a large displacement. The simplified Newmark method when used in regional landslide susceptibility analysis did not reflect this effect and may be unsuitable to determine the size of landslides.

Earthquake Scenarios for Quito, Ecuador; Cali, Colombia; and Santiago De Los Caballeros, Dominican Republic

Abstract Earthquake risk associated with Quito, Ecuador; Cali, Colombia; and Santiago de los Caballeros, Dominican Republic is examined by generating a set of hypothetical earthquake scenarios considering seismic sources, recent seismicity, and major historical earthquakes recorded in the vicinity. In this study, particular focus is given to the development of earthquake scenarios for use in emergency planning in each city as well as stimulating discussion with respect to addressing the gaps in current understanding of built stock inventory and their vulnerability when subjected to strong shaking. Exposure and vulnerability models from the Global Earthquake Model foundation, hazard and local site information available for the cities, and the U.S. Geological Survey near-real-time products are utilized to estimate potential consequences for postearthquake response planning. Results showed that the historic city centers remain the most susceptible to experiencing severe damage resulting in widespread casualties. Similarly, the scenarios highlight areas susceptible to shaking induced ground failure hazards, which may pose additional challenges when responding to such earthquakes. Moderate earthquakes originating from nearby seismic sources, for example, Quito fault system for Quito or the Septentrional fault zone in the case of Santiago de Los Caballeros, could potentially be of greater consequence in terms of direct economic impact and disruption to the city when compared to very large distant subduction interface earthquakes.

Centrifuge tests for seismic response of single pile foundation supported wind turbines in sand influenced by earthquake history

Centrifuge tests for seismic response of single pile foundation supported wind turbines in sand influenced by earthquake history

Connectivity-based Seismic Response Analysis of Water Transmission Networks

Recent frequent earthquakes have caused serious damage to water supply structures, significantly affecting the drinking water supply of local residents. In particular, because water supply structures are extensively buried underground, prediction of their deteriorated performance against external disturbances is crucial for maintenance purpose. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the degraded seismic performance of the water transmission network based on connectivity-based network analysis against seismic conditions. The proposed methodology consists of i) network map reconstruction using a graph theory, ii) ground motion generation considering the uncertainty of seismic motion, and iii) connectivity verification between source and sink nodes. To demonstrate the proposed methodology, the network topology was reconstructed by adopting the water transmission network located in A-city, and the seismic performance of the target network was evaluated considering the epicenter of the historical earthquakes. As a result of numerical analysis, the seismic response of the water transmission network showed the highest network connectivity when the water was supplied from node 62, and water was stably secured at node 107 under different earthquake magnitudes.

A Comprehensive Case Study on the Historical Earthquakes in Major Fault Zones of Bangladesh

An earthquake is a fatal natural disaster that occurs suddenly without any prior signal. Every year the world faces many earthquakes with magnitudes varying from low to high. The uncertain nature of earthquakes makes it almost impossible to predict the exact time of occurrence. So, it is necessary to take precautionary steps before an earthquake hits. To take preventive measures, a proper study of tectonic plates and faults must be done to gain insight into the study area's susceptibility. Due to the geological characteristics and tec-tonic plate activity, Bangladesh risks facing an Earthquake. Every year, Bangladesh also faces some number of earthquakes of different magnitude. This study analyzes the earth-quake events in different fault zone of Bangladesh in the last 49 years. The study showed that the Tripura Fault and Shillong Plateau are the most active among the five major faults. The frequency of these faults is higher than the other ones. Though the past earthquake magnitudes were small, it is still concerning that the Tripura fault and Shillong plateau show much more frequent seismic activities that may indicate a bigger earthquake incident in the near future. The epicenter depth of most earthquakes is within 40 km from the sur-face, which is a concerning issue because most earthquakes are shallow earthquakes that tend to have more damaging properties than deep ones.

Review of two outstanding compilation works of Chinese historical earthquakes literature in China

This paper details two nationwide events of the collation of historical earthquake records in the early 1950s and late 1970s to introduce the application of research results. Evaluating the compilation and influence of two representative works, the Chronology of Chinese Earthquakes Records (1956) and the Compilation of Chinese Historical Earthquake Records (1983), is significant to promote their scientific value and academic impact.

Characterized model uncertainties of CPT-based simplified procedures for assessing soil liquefaction and its application to Taiwan offshore wind farms

This paper aims to calibrate model uncertainties of the current Cone Penetration Test (CPT) methods for assessing soil liquefaction potential and introduce a new and concise one called the hyperbolic function (HBF) method based on the unique Chi-Chi earthquake database in Taiwan. The development and features of the HBF method were introduced at first. The performance and model uncertainty of each CPT method is then evaluated with a database of historical and Chi-Chi earthquake cases using the indices of the predicted success rate and bias-factor models, respectively. The success rate evaluations show that the HBF is one of the most accurate methods. The calibrated bias-factor models can indicate the conservatism of each CPT method applied to the Taiwan sites. Afterward, the liquefaction hazard curves associated with these CPT methods for Taiwan sites are derived based on the case histories of liquefaction and non-liquefaction in Taiwan. A real case study to illustrate the applications of these calibrated models evaluating liquefaction hazards to an offshore wind farm near Taiwan western coast is also demonstrated in this paper. These above results bring not only recommendations on CPT liquefaction assessment methods incorporated into the Technical Specifications for Site Investigation and Design of offshore wind farms in Taiwan, but procedures to calibrate regional biased models for other offshore wind farms in the world.

Uncertainties in Intensity-Based Earthquake Magnitude Estimates

Abstract Estimating the magnitude of historical earthquakes is crucial for assessing seismic hazard. Magnitudes of early-instrumental earthquakes can be inferred using a combination of instrumental records, field observations, and the observed distribution of shaking intensity determined from macroseismic observations. For earthquakes before 1900, shaking intensity distributions often provide the only information to constrain earthquake magnitude. Considerable effort has been made to develop methods to estimate the magnitude of moderate-to-large historical earthquakes using shaking intensities derived from macroseismic data. In this study, we consider earthquakes in California with known instrumental magnitudes to explore uncertainties in estimating the magnitude of historical earthquakes from intensity information alone. We use three California-specific intensity prediction equations (IPEs) and an IPE based on a global ground-motion model (GMM) to determine optimum intensity-based magnitudes for 33 moderate-to-large California earthquakes between 1979 and 2021. Intensity-based magnitudes are close to instrumental magnitudes on average. However, intensity-based magnitudes for individual events differ by as much as 2.2 magnitude units from instrumental magnitudes. This result reflects the weak dependence of ground motions and shaking intensities on moment magnitude and their strong dependence on stress drop. Considering the intensity distributions of the 1906 San Francisco and 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes, we show that information that could constrain rupture length is discarded when considering only the 2D decay of intensity with distance. We also show that ground-motion intensity conversion equations used in a GMM-based approach may cause a systematic overestimation of large historical earthquake magnitudes. This study underscores both the reducible and potentially irreducible uncertainties associated with using intensity data to estimate magnitudes of historical earthquakes using IPEs and highlights the value of using additional information to constrain rupture dimensions. Using intensity observations alone, moment magnitude uncertainties are typically on the order of a full unit.

Highlighting the Impact of the Construction History of a Cultural Heritage Building Through a Vibration-Based Finite Element Model Updated by Particle Swarm Algorithm

ABSTRACT Numerical models play a primary role in Cultural Heritage preservation. Nevertheless, the design of a realistic model remains challenging due not only to the complex behavior of masonry but also to the asynchronous building phases, the damage induced by natural and anthropic aggression, and the associated repairs. This paper discusses the impact of the information provided by an in-depth analysis of the construction history on the updating process of a Finite Element building model. The case study is the church of Sant’Agata del Mugello (Italy); for this building, a previous historical–archaeological study identified and recorded the asynchronous construction phases, the repair techniques, and the damage induced by three historical earthquakes (1542, 1611, and 1919) – moreover, a dense ambient vibration survey allowed to identify the modal parameters. The information from previous works is summarized in five Finite Element models with increasing complexity. A vibration-based model updating methodology based on a Particle Swarm Algorithm is developed. This work shows that the best minimization of the difference between the numerical and experimental modal parameters is obtained with the numerical model considering the identified construction techniques, repair phases, and connection relations between the bell tower and the nave.

Characteristics of Regional GPS Crustal Deformation before the 2021 Yunnan Yangbi Ms 6.4 Earthquake and Its Implications for Determining Potential Areas of Future Strong Earthquakes

The 2021 Yangbi Ms 6.4 earthquake in Yunnan, China, occurred in an area where the Global Positioning System (GPS) geodetic observations are particularly intensive. Based on a detailed retrospective analysis of the GPS observations of about 133 stations distributed in the proximately 400 km × 400 km region that contains the area affected by the earthquake., we obtain a high-resolution GPS velocity field and strain rate field and then derive the present-day slip rates of major faults in the region with the commonly used half-space elastic dislocation model and constraints from the GPS velocity field. Furthermore, by calculating the seismic moment accumulation and release and deficit rates in the main fault segments and combining with the distribution characteristics of small earthquakes, we evaluate the regional seismic risk. The results show that (1) there was a localized prominent strain accumulation rate around the seismogenic area of the impending Yangbi Ms 6.4 earthquake, although this was not the only area with a prominent strain rate in the whole region. (2) The seismogenic area of the earthquake was just located where the strain direction was deflected, which, together with the localized outstanding maximum shear strain and dilatation rates, provides us with important hints to determine the potential areas of future strong earthquakes. (3) Of all the seismogenic fault segments with relatively high potentials, judged using the elapsed time of historical earthquakes and effective strain accumulation rate, the middle section of the Weixi–Qiaohou fault has a higher earthquake risk than the southern section, the Midu–Binchuan section of the Chenghai fault has a higher risk than the Yongsheng section and the Jianchuan section of the Jianchuan–Qiaohou–Lijiang–Xiaojinhe fault has a higher risk than the Lijiang section.

Evaluation of the Local Site Effects and Their Implication to the Seismic Risk of the UNESCO World Heritage Site Old City of Dubrovnik (Croatia)

ABSTRACT UNESCO World Heritage Site Old City of Dubrovnik (Croatia) has been devastated by historical earthquake in 1667 of M ~ 7 as well 1979 M6.8 Montenegro earthquakes causing strong damage effects. The aim of this research is the evaluation of the geological structure and local site effects under the Old City, using non-invasive seismic survey methods to define the areas that can be subjected to stronger damage in the case of an earthquake. The results present basis for seismic hazard and seismic risk assessment of cultural heritage – which are necessary activities for their preservation as an important witness of the past.

Damage Prediction Observation for Existing Buildings in Sabah under Moderate Risk Earthquakes

Seismic design in building construction is still new in Malaysia. Sabah, a Malaysian state, is situated southeast of the Eurasian Plate, between the highly active Philippine Sea Plate and Indo-Australian Plate, and has a history of earthquakes, with the largest measuring a magnitude of 6.3 (2015). Although small earthquakes occur annually, most old buildings in Sabah were built pre-code and designed without considering earthquake loadings. This study aimed to analyze the potential damage to buildings in Sabah based on their vulnerability to moderate earthquakes. More than 500 buildings in seven districts were evaluated using a quantitative method based on score assignment, within 100 kilometers of the epicenters. According to the findings, more than 160 buildings in the Kota Kinabalu and Kudat districts were assessed as vulnerable to Grade 4 damage. In Ranau, Kota Marudu, Tawau, Semporna, and Lahad Datu, most buildings had a Grade 3 damage potential, with some at Grade 2 or 4. This study’s findings provide a summary of the damage risk for structures in Sabah and offer a starting point for planning and developing safer buildings that can withstand local seismic conditions. The resulting building-grade damage map can be used as a reference for future damage mitigation measures.

Late Medieval seismicity on the Himalayan Frontal Thrust Fault at Lal Dhang, Uttarakhand, India

The Himalayan Frontal Thrust Fault (HFT) lies at the active tectonic boundary between Eurasia and the Indian subcontinent. Past earthquakes on the HFT have resulted in significant ground displacement that is evidenced by sizable scarps along the fault. Here we present findings from an ~28-m-long x 5-m-wide x 8-m-deep paleoseismic trench excavated across an ~10-m-high fault scarp at the site of Lal Dhang in the Central Seismic Gap. Excavation exposed three recumbent fault-propagation folds that support occurrence of at least two earthquakes with >25 m of cumulative coseismic slip. Findings suggest that two great (Mw ≥ 8.0) earthquakes may have occurred in rapid succession at the site during the Late Medieval period. Radiocarbon dating of stratigraphic units that are modeled using the OxCal software program constrain timing of the events to 1317–1391 CE and 1447–1572 CE, which is coincident with historical earthquakes in 1344 CE and 1505 CE. With over 500 years of quiescence since the last great earthquake in the Central Seismic Gap, it is possible that another devastating rupture could be imminent.

Characterizing Crustal Deformation of the Weihe Fault, Weihe Basin (Central China), Using InSAR and GNSS Observations

The Weihe Fault is an important basement fault that is buried deep and controls the formation, evolution, and seismicity of the Weihe Basin. It has been quiescent for more than 300 years with only a few moderate and small earthquakes distributed unevenly. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the current tectonic deformation pattern in order to assess regional seismic risk. In this context, the tectonic deformation velocities of the Weihe Fault were analyzed using an interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), a global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and leveling observations. The line of slight (LOS) deformation rates spanning from 2015 to 2019 were estimated from stacking-InSAR technology. Subsequently, the three-dimensional deformation rates in the north–south, east–west, and vertical directions were separated through the integration of GNSS-derived horizontal deformation and InSAR-derived LOS deformation. After that, the long-wavelength tectonic deformation was decomposed from the separated vertical deformation based on the spherical wavelet multiscale approach. Finally, the slip rate and locking depth were inverted for the assessment of the seismic hazard and tectonic activity of the Weihe Fault. The results show that the separated vertical deformation is consistent with the leveling observations, where the standard deviation between them is 1.69 mm/yr and the mean value is 0.6 mm/yr, demonstrating the reliability of the proposed method. The decomposed long-wavelength tectonic deformation exhibits uplift in the north and subsidence in the south, as well as the obvious vertical velocity gradient. The inversion result shows that the slip rate of the Weihe Fault gradually decreases from the west to the east, and the dip gradually increases from the west to the east, indicating a segmented activity and the geometric characteristics of the fault. The locking depth of the Weihe Fault gradually increases from the west (~5 km) to the east (~14 km), implying a higher stress accumulation and seismic risk on the eastern section of the fault. Taking into account the higher locking depth and frequent historical earthquakes on the eastern section of the Weihe Fault, further attention should be paid to the earthquake risk of the eastern section of the Weihe Fault.

On the seismic response and earthquake-triggered failures of subaqueous slopes in Swiss lakes

SUMMARY Seismically triggered subaqueous mass movements in lakes may generate tsunamis that can cause significant damage on the shore. In this study, we assess the seismic response and stability of subaqueous slopes in Swiss lakes based on recorded seismological data, historical and geological information and geotechnical surveys. We performed seismic investigations at multiple locations in Lake Lucerne using Ocean Bottom Seismometers (OBS). For these locations, we derived ground-motion amplification functions from local and regional earthquakes and horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (H/V) from the earthquake and ambient vibration recordings. The results show (1) very high amplification levels, often exceeding values of 50–100 in the frequency range between 1 and 10 Hz, (2) the fundamental frequency of resonance in the range of 0.5–3.5 Hz and (3) laterally variable site response even for closely located stations. We sought also the signatures of non-linear site response in the H/V curves or ground-motion amplification functions but found only weak indicative effects and no clear evidence. This is most likely due to the low levels of ground motion recorded during the OBS campaigns. We conducted back analyses of historical earthquakes in Switzerland with available documental and/or geological evidence of induced (tsunamigenic) subaqueous slope failures in Swiss lakes. The data set of historical events was complemented with a selection of instrumentally recorded earthquakes in Switzerland. For the analyses, we selected multiple sites in Swiss lakes which failed in the past or are prone to failure in the future. We modelled the ground motion at these locations assuming Swiss standard reference rock conditions (vs30 = 1105 m s−1). The modelled ground motion intensity measures (IM) included peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and pseudospectral acceleration (PSA) at 0.3, 1 and 2 s. We estimated the minimum ground motion and macroseismic intensity at reference rock conditions required to trigger the failures of subaqueous slopes. In addition, we defined a threshold for the seismic triggering of such failures in terms of moment magnitude (Mw) and epicentral distance (Re) as: $$\begin{eqnarray} M_{\rm w}=2.891+1.904\log_{10}(R_e+5.166)\: {\rm for}\: R_e\ge 3.7\: {\rm km}. \end{eqnarray}$$ Our results are consistent with previous studies based on worldwide observations. Furthermore, we related the modelled ground motions to the Swiss seismic hazard products and estimated the return period of critical ground shaking responsible for triggering subaqueous slope failures (with potential for tsunami generation) to be in the range of 36–224 yr. Finally, based on previously collected geotechnical data (in situ Cone Penetration Testing and laboratory sediment analysis), we determined the most likely values of the seismic coefficient k to be used with the ground motion IMs modelled at reference rock conditions in infinite slope stability analyses to estimate the factor of safety (FS). For PGA, we found a k = 1; for PGV, k = 2; for PSA0.3s, k = 0.6; for PSA1s, k = 2 and for PSA2s, k = 5.5. These estimates are conservative and affected by the trade-off between the thickness of unconsolidated sediments and the slope angle. Thus, we recommend applying them to slopes with a low-to-moderate gradient (<15°) and sediment thickness of more than 2 m.

Seismic catastrophes in historical times in Arabia – Destruction of the city of Qalhat (Oman) in the 16th century

The Arabian Peninsula is surrounded by seismically highly active plate margins, while the interior seems to be free from destructive earthquakes. We report two historical earthquakes in Qalhat, Oman, >300 km from any plate boundary and provide archaeoseismological analysis of ruined buildings. The first quake hit the city in 1497 AD with an intensity VII at most; the community survived and damage was repaired. The second event caused total devastation (intensity X-XI), sometime between 1580 and 1592. The city never recovered from the latter; it has been a field of ruins ever since. ShakeMap modeling yielded magnitude Mw 5.5 for the first and Mw 6.5–7.0 for the second earthquake. We suggest that the strike-slip Tiwi Fault or the reverse Qalhat Fault caused the first, while the reverse Qalhat Fault might have caused the second earthquake.