Historical Variables Research Articles

(Den) eneste måten – When the Prenominal Determiner Can Be Omitted from Norwegian Double Definite Phrases

Norwegian, like Swedish and Faroese, exhibits double definiteness: modified definite phrases normally contain both a prenominal determiner and a suffixed definite article on the noun. However, exceptions—phrases with only the determiner or only the suffixed article—can be found. This article investigates adjectives which do not need to be preceded by the prenominal determiner in Norwegian. Corpus data and acceptability judgments are used to describe these exceptions and to propose a syntactic analysis. The study shows that there are three types of adjectives in Norwegian: regular ones that require double definiteness, exceptional adjectives that allow determiner omission, and quantifier adjectives that never occur with a determiner. I argue that phrases with exceptional adjectives can be accounted for by the same movement that is proposed for determiner-less phrases in Icelandic and Northern Swedish (Julien 2002, 2005). Finally, the article presents a brief exploration of the patterns of variation in omission versus presence of the determiner, including historical and dialectal variation.

The Interplay of Historical Foundations, Resource Dynamics, and Ideological Frameworks in the Shaping of Tanzania's Foreign Policy Landscape: Practicability of the Dependency Theory

This article analyzes three key variables - ideology, history, and resources - to get a deeper insight into the intricate dynamics shaping Tanzania's foreign policy. The research examines how the country's diplomatic environment is influenced by resource considerations, historical legacies, and ideological shifts within the framework of dependence theory. The findings from the survey show various perspectives on the influence of history, which is consistent with the emphasis of dependence theory on historical variables shaping foreign policy. The examination of resource contributions emphasizes the pressing necessity for policy reform, endorsing the suggestion of dependence theory for strategic resource utilization to reduce external constraints. Tanzania's strategic focus on developing economic partnerships outside of Western markets is evident in its ideological aspect. This is in line with the suggestion of dependency theory to reduce reliance on a certain set of trading partners in order to enhance the country's ability to navigate changing global economic trends. Key Informant Interviews support the study's theoretical framework and demonstrate the ongoing influence of historical personalities such as Julius Nyerere on Tanzania's foreign policy. The study's findings resulted in three significant recommendations. To establish diplomatic partnerships that honour past legacies while adapting to current geopolitical circumstances, it is advisable to take a sophisticated approach to historical connections. Implementing thorough policy change is recommended to strategically protect and utilize national resources in global contexts. Finally, it is recommended to take a proactive approach to diverse economic relationships in alignment with the broader pan-African objective of reducing dependence on specific trade partners. valuable guidance for decision-makers navigating the complex process of developing foreign policy.

Interassay Variability and Clinical Implications of Five Different Prostate-specific Antigen Assays

Background and objectiveProstate-specific antigen (PSA) remains a critical marker for prostate cancer (PCa) detection and monitoring. Recognising historical variability in PSA assays and the evolution of assay technology and calibration, this study aims to reassess interassay variability using the latest generation of five assays in a contemporary cohort of men undergoing prostate biopsy. MethodsFive different commercially available PSA assays were tested in a blood sample of 76 men before undergoing a prostate biopsy. Total PSA (tPSA) and free-to-total PSA ratio (%fPSA) were compared across assays, using Roche (Basel, Switzerland) as the benchmark, and correlated with biopsy outcome to analyse the impact on PCa diagnosis. The statistical analysis included Passing-Bablok regression and Bland-Altman plots, with a p value threshold of <0.05 for significance. Key findings and limitationsAmong the 76 men, 28 (36.8%) were diagnosed with significant PCa (defined as International Society of Urological Pathology grade ≥2). A high correlation was observed between tPSA and %fPSA values among the different PSA assays tested (r2 ≥ 0.9). The Passing-Bablok analysis showed that tPSA results varied substantially among the assays, with slopes ranging between 0.78 and 1.04. Compared with the tPSA of Roche, tPSA values were on average 20.7% lower by Beckman (Oststeinbeck, Germany), 15.2% lower by Abbott (Chicago, IL, USA), 6.1% lower by Diasorin (Saluggia, Italy), and 9.6% higher by Brahms (Hennigsdorf, Germany; p < 0.001 for all). The %fPSA values by Abbott and Brahms were higher at 15.7% and 10.6%, respectively (p < 0.001), while the Beckman and Diasorin values had minimal differences of -0.3% and 2.3%, respectively (p > 0.05). The variability across assays would have resulted in discrepancies in both the sensitivity and the specificity for tPSA and %fPSA by at least 14%, depending on the cut-offs applied. Conclusions and clinical implicationsDespite the use of the latest PSA assays, relevant variability of tPSA and %fPSA results can be observed among different assays. There is an urgent need for standardised calibration methods and greater awareness among practitioners concerning interassay variability. Clinicians should acknowledge that clinically relevant thresholds may depend on the specific PSA assay and that ideally the same assay is applied over time for better clinical decision-making. Patient summaryProstate-specific antigen (PSA) is a critical marker for prostate cancer (PCa) detection and monitoring. However, significant variations were observed in the results of the latest PSA assays. Thus, standardised calibration methods and greater awareness among practitioners concerning interassay variability are needed.

Evolution and determinants of precipitation chemistry in a plateau city, China: Insight from the pollutants source identification and environmental effect

Rainfall-related chemical ions deposition processes have important environment effects on earth-surface, which is also a vital sink of urban air pollutants. Therefore, identifying the rainwater chemical evolution and determinants, and source is essential. The daily-based rainwater samples during 2022– 2023 and the historical rainwater data in a typical plateau city (Kunming) were investigated. The Ca2+ and NH4+, SO42− and NO3− dominated the rainwater cations and anions, with the cationic and anionic percentages of 78% and 10%, 50% and 33%. The historical variations in ions percentages revealed the achievement of environmental protection. The precipitation amount and the seasonal changes of source emission were critical determinants for the variations of rainwater chemistry. Using the stoichiometry and receptor model, the contributions of potential origins to rainwater chemicals were assessed. 86% of NO3− and 40% SO42− were from combustion-related anthropogenic source, volatilization-related source contributed 85% of NH4+ (e.g., agricultural/municipal wastes emissions), whereas marine input was the main contributor of Cl− (59%) and Na+ (52%). Mg2+ (58%) and Ca2+ (41%) were primary from terrestrial input source. The risk of wet deposition-caused acidification was limited due to the high rainwater neutralization level, whereas the impact of nitrogen-related deposition on gross primary productivity (GPP) was non-negligible and further attention was need. Overall, the present study clarified the rainfall chemical features of plateau city region and further provided decision support for more effective urban air environmental management programs.

To what extent can we predict variation of bryophyte and tracheophyte community composition at fine spatial scale along an elevation gradient?

Mounting evidence points to the need for high-resolution climatic data in biodiversity analyses under global change. As we move to finer resolution, other factors than climate, including other abiotic variables and biotic interactions play, however, an increasing role, raising the question of our ability to predict community composition at fine scales. Focusing on two lineages of land plants, bryophytes and tracheophytes, we determine the relative contribution of climatic, non-climatic environmental drivers, spatial effects, community architecture and composition of one lineage to predict community composition of the other lineage, and how our ability to predict community composition varies along an elevation gradient. The relationship between community composition of one lineage and 68 environmental variables at 2-25 m spatial resolution, architecture and composition of the other lineage, and spatial factors, was investigated by hierarchical and variance partitioning across 413 2x2m plots in the Swiss Alps. Climatic data, although significant, contributed less to the model than any other variable considered. Community composition of one lineage, reflecting both direct interactions and unmeasured (hidden) abiotic factors, was the best predictor of community composition of the other lineage. Total explained variance substantially varied with elevation, underlining the fact that the strength of the species composition-environment relationship varies depending on environmental conditions. Total variance explained increased towards high elevation up to 50 %, with an increasing importance of spatial effects and vegetation architecture, pointing to increasing positive interactions and aggregated species distribution patterns in alpine environments. In tracheophytes, an increase of the contribution of non-climatic environmental factors was also observed at high elevation, in line with the hypothesis of a stronger environmental control under harsher conditions. Further improvements of our ability to predict changes in plant community composition may involve the implementation of historical variables and higher-resolution climatic data to better describe the microhabitat conditions actually experienced by organisms.

Microzone analysis of stalagmite chemical components in caves based on confocal controlled Raman and laser induced breakdown spectroscopy

Cave stalagmites are recognized as excellent archives for studying contemporary and historical climate variations. They present a valuable opportunity for accurately identifying past climate signals through a combination of O and C isotopes(δ18O, δ13C), as well as trace elements. This study introduces confocal controlled Raman coupled to laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technology for analyzing of climate change using stalagmites for the first time. With a spatial resolution of 20 μm, this technology enables the detection of various elements and mineral. Correlation and principal component analysis of the ratio between elements, Raman, gray, fluorescence, δ13C, and δ18O revealed that the data are correlated and show significant grouping. These factors are related to the micro-environmental changes caused by the aragonite crystals in stalagmites. The increase/decrease in the Sr-Mg/Ca ratio and the decrease/increase in the (Ba-K-Fe)/Ca ratio were closely related to the water-rock interaction and prior calcite precipitation, the decrease/increase in soil biological activity, and the influx of detrital material caused by precipitation. This also corresponded to the decrease/increase in temperature. These findings indicate that the confocal controlled Raman-LIBS technique for detecting microscale chemical compositions in stalagmites holds significant promise and potential for studying past climate change.

The Nexus Between Religion, Conflict and Peacebuilding in Africa and Policy Implications

Purpose: The nexus between peacebuilding, conflict, and religion has been portrayed too often in a binary way where religion has been viewed either as a source of conflict or peacebuilding. This perception obscures the intricacy of the nexus showing that not much is understood about religion. This study sought to understand how religion interacts with human experience at the national and international levels to provide a detailed understanding of how it relates to peacebuilding and conflict in Africa. Methods: A qualitative and interpretive approach is employed predicated on a critical literature review of documents from various sources. Results and conclusions: It is revealed that religion should not be seen as an isolated or static entity, but viewed as a fluid system, dependent on historical and contextual variables. Experts, academics, and policymakers must be cautious not to give unjustified eminence to religion because it is not always a main factor in every conflict. Originality/Value: For a long time conflict and peacebuilding in the continent has been not vigorously included the religious sector. Where the religious community has been involved it has generally been initiated at a country level by peacebuilding actors without much amplification at the continental level. This is one of the few studies if any that champions this matter and complement the African Union’s African Peacebuilding and Security Architecture.

A past and present perspective on the European summer vapor pressure deficit

Abstract. The response of evapotranspiration to anthropogenic warming is of critical importance for the water and carbon cycle. Contradictory conclusions about evapotranspiration changes are caused primarily by their brevity in time and sparsity in space, as well as the strong influence of internal variability. Here, we present the first gridded reconstruction of the summer (June, July, and August) vapor pressure deficit (VPD) for the past 4 centuries at the European level. This gridded reconstruction is based on 26 European tree ring oxygen isotope records and is obtained using a random forest approach. According to validation scores obtained with the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, our reconstruction is robust over large parts of Europe since 1600, in particular for the westernmost and northernmost regions, where most tree ring records are located. Based on our reconstruction, we show that from the mid-1700s a trend towards higher summer VPD occurred in central Europe and the Mediterranean region that is related to a simultaneous increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. This increasing summer VPD trend continues throughout the observational period and in recent times. Moreover, our summer VPD reconstruction helps to visualize the local and regional impacts of the current climate change, as well as to minimize statistical uncertainties of historical VPD variability. This paper provides also new insights into the relationship between summer VPD and large-scale atmospheric circulation, and we show that summer VPD has two preferred modes of variability, namely a NW–SE dipole-like mode and a N–S dipole-like mode. Furthermore, the interdisciplinary use of the data should be emphasized, as summer VPD is a crucial parameter for many climatological feedback processes in the Earth's surface system. The reconstructed summer VPD gridded data over the last 400 years are available at the following link: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5958836 (Balting et al., 2022).

Perceptions and Realities of Lisbon: An Examination of the Image of a Tourist Destination

Destination image is related to comprising cognitive, emotional, and conative components and includes an individual's thoughts, ideas, and perceptions of a place. Images consistently coincide with the internalisation of distinct perspectives, demonstrating that people have different perceptions of the destiny. Influences include media, authority figures, music, and movies. Although the experience may not match their initial expectations, these effects form their preconceived beliefs and expectations of a trip. Accordingly, it is important to explore the trustfulness of the positioning of tourist destinations to ascertain its alignment with the expectations of tourists. Given that, Lisbon has been regarded as one of the foremost European cities in recent years, owing to its high level of accessibility and its multifaceted sensory attributes, it was deemed pertinent to investigate the perceptions of the visitors towards the city. The present study used a mixed methods approach, incorporating a multimedia component that showcases various locations in the Lisbon region with open-ended questionnaires to gather the perspectives of the tourists and a closed-ended questionnaire that inquiries about the primary factors that attract visitors to Lisbon. This analysis employed graphical representations, including word clouds and graphics to explore the identified impressions. The research revealed a robust association between cultural, historical, and aesthetic variables and the choice of travel destination. Certain visual representations highlight the imperative of pursuing sustainable and responsible development to mitigate the potential for enduring degradation. This holds significance as certain images are linked to instances of environmental and social irresponsibility. The study also revealed that History and Heritage emerged as the most significant factors that attract individuals, followed by Cultural Attractions, Weather and Climate, Gastronomy, and Panoramic Views and Landscapes. A notable perception exists regarding the insufficiency of sustainability and eco-friendly practices, underscoring the necessity for targeted sustainability endeavours to promote responsible and sustainable development of tourism destinations. Indeed, additional research on the contrast of perception and reality at the location is needed to evaluate the picture provided to visitors. However, understanding tourist-relevant areas like Lisbon is a good foundation for advertising them, allowing various stakeholders to make authentic and valuable marketing decisions.

Is the Borneo Palm Oil Plantation Company Categorized in Investment Grade?

This study aims to identify which oil palm plantations in the Kalimantan region are currently entering the replanting stage and which are rated as "investment grade" by Moody's. It also aims to determine how to invest in oil palm plantations that are currently classified as "investment grade" and/or can raise the notch rating through Moody's. Using a case study methodology, this research is qualitative in nature. Purposive sampling was used in this study's participant selection process, and secondary data sources were used to gather data. Moody's rating analysis is the type of data analysis used in this study. To obtain values for the historical ratio assessment and balance sheet factor variables, a spreading assessment of the company's financial statements for the previous three years is conducted. Additionally, an assessment of the industry/market, company, and management variables is conducted, with data for these variables coming from both internal and external companies. financial reports as well as sales reports, annual reports, legality of production reports, and other supporting documentation. Following input and comprehensive study, an assessment of "B1" with a risk category of "Medium Risk" is the result. Plantation enterprises in Kalimantan that engage in replanting are therefore categorized as investment grade or suitable for investment. Some adjustments must be made for the investment level to either minimally rise or fall into the "Low Risk" category to draw in investors

Validation of global precipitation time series products against tree ring records and remotely sensed vegetation greenness.

Global interpolated climate products are widely used in ecological research to investigate biosphere-climate interactions and to track ecological response to climate variability and climate change. In turn, biological data could also be used for an independent validation of one aspect of climate data quality. All else being equal, more variance explained in biological data identifies the better climate data product. Here, we compare seven global precipitation time series products, including gauge-based datasets (CRU-TS, UDEL-TS, GPCC), re-analysis products (ERA5, CHELSA), a satellite-based dataset (PERSIANN) and a multi-source product that draws on gauge, re-analysis, and satellite data (MSWEP). We focus on precipitation variables, because they are more difficult to interpolate than temperature, and show larger divergence among gridded data products. Our validation is based on 20 years of remotely sensed vegetation greenness (MODIS-EVI) and 120 years of tree ring records from the International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB). The results for the 20-year EVI based validation shows that all gauge and re-analysis data products performed similarly, but were outperformed by the multi-source MSWEP product, especially in regions with low weather station coverage, such as Africa. For analyzing long 120-year time-series, UDEL-TS showed superior performance prior to the 1940s, with especially large margins for northern Asia and the Himalayas region. For other regions, CRU-TS and GPCC could be recommended. We provide maps that can guide the best regional choice of climate product for research involving time series of biological response to historic climate variability and climate change.

Historical change and variability of spectral wind wave climate in the New York Bight

AbstractThe sea surface is a complex superposition of various wave systems, thus, analysing their characteristics provides more meaningful and accurate information compared to conventional integrated wave parameter approaches. The concept of wave family—a population of wave systems within a specific region in spectral space—provides the foundation for investigating the long‐term climatology of wave systems. This study adopts a wave family approach to investigate the climatology of wave systems and their long‐term climate controllers at the location of a coastal buoy in the western North Atlantic Ocean. The frequency‐direction wave spectrum is constructed for a historical 20‐year period by applying the Maximum Entropy Method on directional buoy measurements acquired from the National Data Buoy Center station 44025, located in the New York Bight. The two‐dimensional wave spectrum is partitioned, using the watershed partitioning algorithm, and the occurrence distribution of spectral partitions is calculated to identify predominant wave families. Each of the four identified wave families carries unique characteristics based on spatial formation and duration of propagation prior to arrival at the study site. The study quantifies long‐term trends and variability in wave height of each wave family on a monthly, seasonal and annual level, and their relative importance to the bulk sea‐state climatology. The nexus between the bulk or wave family seasonal wave heights and the climate indices is quantified to identify the wave climate controllers in the study area.

Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Wetlands to Upwind Land Use Changes

AbstractDespite their importance, wetland ecosystems protected by the Ramsar Convention are under pressure from climate change and human activities. These drivers are altering water availability in these wetlands, changing water levels or surface water extent, in some cases, beyond historical variability. Attribution of the effects of human and climate activities is usually focused on changes within the wetlands or their upstream surface and groundwater inputs. However, the reliance of wetland water availability on upwind atmospheric moisture supply is less understood. Here, we assess the vulnerability of 40 Ramsar wetlands to precipitation changes caused by land use and hydroclimatic change occurring in their upwind moisture‐supplying regions. We use moisture flows from a Lagrangian tracking model, atmospheric reanalysis data, and historical land use change (LUC) data to assess and quantify these changes. Our analyses show that historical LUC has decreased precipitation and terrestrial moisture recycling in most wetland hydrological basins, decreasing surface water availability (precipitation minus evaporation). The most substantial effects on wetland water availability occurred in the tropic subtropical regions of Central Europe and Asia. Overall, we found wetlands in Central Asia and South America to be the most vulnerable by a combination of LUC‐driven effects on runoff, high terrestrial precipitation recycling, and recent decreases in surface water availability. This study stresses the need to incorporate upwind effects of land use changes in the restoration, management, and conservation of the world's wetlands.

Exploring the effects of a warmer climate on power and energy demand in multi-family buildings in a Nordic climate

The need to understand how a warmer climate affects the power and energy demand in cold countries is important for urban planners and policymakers. By using data from utility bills that are commonly available today, together with outdoor temperatures, it is possible to analyze historical and future power and energy demand. The scientific value of this research includes the development of a methodology to explore effects on future heat demand in the Nordic region based on a combination of historical data, building properties, and predictions of future climate. This is achieved by using an energy signature model and regression analysis. Seventy multi-family buildings in Linköping, Sweden, are investigated from 1980 to 2050. The results show that the effects from historical variations in internal heat gains (average annual increase of 1 %) on the specific energy use for space heating (SPH) is minor for the district, i.e., less than 2 % when comparing 2020 and 1980. The opposite is found for variations in outdoor temperatures, where the average specific energy use is predicted to decrease by about 25 % in 2050 compared to 1980, with the used forecast of future climate. This corresponds to a decrease from 127 kWh/(m2·year) to 93–96 kWh/(m2·year). Additionally, the maximum heating power demand of the district is predicted to decrease by about 30 %, from 4,855 kW in 1980 to 3,468 kW in 2050. In conclusion, our results demonstrate a strong effect of decreased SPH and heating power demand in residential districts due to a warmer climate.

Poorly differentiated thyroid carcinomas: conceptual controversy and clinical impact.

Poorly differentiated thyroid carcinomas (PDTC) are rare diseases; nevertheless, they account for the majority of deaths from non-anaplastic follicular cell-derived thyroid carcinomas. Establishing the diagnosis and treatment of PDTC is challenging given the low incidence and the lack of standardization of diagnostic criteria. These limitations hamper the ability to compare therapeutic modalities and outcomes between recent and older studies. Recently, the 5th edition of the classification of endocrine tumors has been published, which includes changes in nomenclature and the addition of the disease entity of "differentiatedhigh-grade follicular cell-derived carcinomas". On the other hand, the recently witnessed advances in molecular diagnostics have enriched therapeutic options and improved prognosis for patients. We herein review the various historical variations and evolution in the diagnostic criteria for PDTC. This systematic review attempts to clarify the evolution of the histological and molecular characteristics of this disease, its prognosis, as well as itstreatment options.

Historical variability of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6)-driven surface winds and global reanalysis data for the Eastern Mediterranean

Historical variability of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6)-driven surface winds and global reanalysis data for the Eastern Mediterranean

Welfare, justice, child development and human rights: a review of the objects of youth justice legislation in Australia

ABSTRACT In Australia, as elsewhere, there is consensus that new and more effective ways of responding to young people who commit crimes need to be identified and, when available, implemented and evaluated. In this paper we review youth justice legislation across each Australian jurisdiction and consider how it provides the mandate for service delivery. We contextualise this with an account of historical variations in how the seemingly competing goals of welfare and justice have been balanced. This is followed by an overview of contemporary understandings of child development and human rights which are increasingly recognised as both relevant and important to the way in which the community works with justice-involved children and young people. The analysis illustrates how youth justice agencies are still expected to achieve multiple and, at times, conflicting legislated objectives which results in a lack of coherence in policy and practice. This serves only to limit effectiveness. We conclude that legislative reform will be necessary to realise any new vision for youth justice, especially if one of the overarching purposes is to protect vulnerable children.

Reconstructing Historical Intense and Total Summer Rainfall in Central North Carolina Using Tree-Ring Data (1770–2020)

Contextualizing historic hydroclimate variability in the southeastern USA has relied significantly on proxy indicators such as tree-ring data, and while previous studies have reconstructed total precipitation, less is known about the historic variability of intense rainfall events, which are climatologically and ecologically important and distinct from non-intense rainfall events. Here, a combined longleaf pine and shortleaf pine adjusted latewood chronology spanning 1770–2020 was used to reconstruct July–September total precipitation and intense rainfall event precipitation in central North Carolina, USA. The adjusted latewood chronology explains 46% of the variance in July–September total precipitation and 37% of the variance in July–September intense rainfall event precipitation during the 1940–2020 instrumental period with intense rainfall event precipitation amounts comprising 52% of total precipitation amounts. The models provide context about historic hydroclimate variability at this location and suggest overall stability in both total and intense rainfall event precipitation amounts during the instrumental and reconstruction periods with three identical significant regime shifts during 1770–2020: 1770–1935, 1936–1959 (above-average moisture), 1960–2020 (below-average moisture). To compare model strength, the models were split into early (1940–1980) and late (1981–2020) analysis periods with the intense rainfall event precipitation model exhibiting greater skill during the early analysis period. The early analysis period has a greater frequency and magnitude of intense rainfall events, and these results suggest the influence of intense rainfall event precipitation on latewood growth and the potential susceptibility of reconstruction models to decreased skill and/or error with differing frequencies of extreme events, a finding of particular importance to future dendroclimatic research.

Digital economy agglomeration and energy efficiency gain: evidence from China

This study develops a stylized theoretical model to analyze how digital economy agglomeration affects energy efficiency. Then, we employ a two-way fixed effect model to identify the impact of digital economy agglomeration on energy efficiency. We find that a higher degree of digital economy agglomeration significantly increases a city’s energy efficiency. This result is robust when we address endogeneity concerns by exploiting a policy shock, geographic distance, and historical variation as instruments. We explore several explanations, including advancements in green technology, upgrading of industrial structures, and enhancements in public and governmental environmental concerns. Our findings provide evidence that substantiates each of these mechanisms. Our heterogeneous analysis indicates that the impact of digital economy agglomeration on energy efficiency is only significant in cities with higher attention to digitization, stricter environmental regulations, greater energy consumption, and better industrial development. This study provides the first city-level evidence of the relationship between digital economy agglomeration and energy efficiency, which has important implications for the energy transition in developing countries.

Historical and projected future runoff over the Mekong River basin

Abstract. The Mekong River (MR) crosses the borders and connects six countries, including China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. It provides critical water resources and supports natural and agricultural ecosystems, socioeconomic development, and the livelihoods of the people living in this region. Understanding changes in the runoff of this important international river under projected climate change is critical for water resource management and climate change adaptation planning. However, research on long-term runoff dynamics for the MR and the underlying drivers of runoff variability remains scarce. Here, we analyse historical runoff variations from 1971 to 2020 based on runoff gauge data collected from eight hydrological stations along the MR. With these runoff data, we then evaluate the runoff simulation performance of five global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by four global climate models (GCMs) under the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Furthermore, based on the best simulation combination, we quantify the impact of future climate change on river runoff changes in the MR. The result shows that the annual runoff in the MR has not changed significantly in the past 5 decades, while the establishment of dams and reservoirs in the basin visibly affected the annual runoff distribution. The ensemble-averaged result of the Water Global Assessment and Prognosis version 2 (WaterGAP2; i.e. GHM) forced by four GCMs has the best runoff simulation performance. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; i.e. RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), the runoff of the MR is projected to increase significantly (p&lt;0.05); e.g. 3.81 ± 3.47 m3s-1a-1 (9 ± 8 % increase in 100 years) at the upper reach under RCP2.6 and 16.36 ± 12.44 m3s-1a-1 (13 ± 10 % increase in 100 years) at the lower reach under RCP6.0. In particular, under the RCP6.0 scenario, the increase in annual runoff is most pronounced in the middle and lower reaches, due to increased precipitation and snowmelt. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the runoff distribution in different seasons varies obviously, increasing the risk of flooding in the wet season and drought in the dry season.