Historical Time Periods Research Articles

Global inventory of suitable, cultivable and available cropland under different scenarios and policies

Where land-use change and particularly the expansion of cropland could potentially take place in the future is a central research question to investigate emerging trade-offs between food security, climate protection and biodiversity conservation. We provide consistent global datasets of land potentially suitable, cultivable and available for agricultural use for historic and future time periods from 1980 until 2100 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, available at 30 arc-seconds spatial resolution and aggregated at country level. Based on the agricultural suitability of land for 23 globally important food, feed, fiber and bioenergy crops, and high resolution land cover data, our dataset indicates where cultivation is possible and how much land could potentially be used as cropland when biophysical constraints and different assumptions on land-use regulations are taken into account. By serving as an input for land-use models, the produced data could improve the comparability of the models and their output, and thereby contribute to a better understanding of potential land-use trade-offs.

Anarchist and Anarchistic Anti-Systemic Movements in World-Systems Perspective

While world-systems anti-systemic movement scholarship has briefly acknowledged the existence of anti-state “cultural” movements—namely, autonomous indigenous movements in the periphery and anarchist worker movements in the core and semi-periphery—it relegates them to secondary importance to statist “political” movements. In this paper, we provide an intervention in the world-systems anti-systemic movements literature by centering anti-state movements in our analysis. In order to investigate the mechanisms essential for anti-state, anti-systemic movements over the longue durée of the world-system, we operationalize a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) using nine cases of non-state spaces from different geographies and historical time periods throughout the world-system. We use a Boolean crisp set, or binary approach, denoting the presence, or absence of factors to determine the pathways that lead to the variation between explicitly anarchist and implicitly anarchistic movements as well as short-term or long-term non-state spaces established by anti-state movements. We find that the core and semi-periphery classification of anarchist movements is false. We also find that non-state spaces succeed when they are not repressed by statist anti-systemic movements or core imperial nation-states. In effect, the anti-systemic political actor replicates the logic of the core nation-state it claims to be opposed to when it comes to its repression of non-state spaces and movements. Prior to the “liberal geoculture” (1848–1968), even core states had difficulty repressing non-state spaces, and after the liberal geoculture semi-periphery and periphery states have had difficulty repressing non-state spaces.

Mismatch of N release from the permafrost and vegetative uptake opens pathways of increasing nitrous oxide emissions in the high Arctic.

Biogeochemical cycling in permafrost-affected ecosystems remains associated with large uncertainties, which could impact the Earth's greenhouse gas budget and future climate policies. In particular, increased nutrient availability following permafrost thaw could perturb the greenhouse gas exchange in these systems, an effect largely unexplored until now. Here, we enhance the terrestrial ecosystem model QUINCY (QUantifying Interactions between terrestrial Nutrient CYcles and the climate system), which simulates fully coupled carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles in vegetation and soil, with processes relevant in high latitudes (e.g., soil freezing and snow dynamics). In combination with site-level and satellite-based observations, we use the model to investigate impacts of increased nutrient availability from permafrost thawing in comparison to other climate-induced effects and CO2 fertilization over 1960 to 2018 across the high Arctic. Our simulations show that enhanced availability of nutrients following permafrost thaw account for less than 15% of the total Gross primary productivity increase over the time period, despite simulated N limitation over the high Arctic scale. As an explanation for this weak fertilization effect, observational and model data indicate a mismatch between the timing of peak vegetative growth (week 26-27 of the year, corresponding to the beginning of July) and peak thaw depth (week 32-35, mid-to-late August), resulting in incomplete plant use of nutrients near the permafrost table. The resulting increasing N availability approaching the permafrost table enhances N loss pathways, which leads to rising nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions in our model. Site-level emission trends of 2mg N m-2 year-1 on average over the historical time period could therefore predict an emerging increasing source of N2 O emissions following future permafrost thaw in the high Arctic.

Fast‐paced city life? Tempo and mode of phenotypic changes in urban birds from Switzerland

Humans' large influence on the environment has constructed many new ecological niches, such as in urban areas. Phenotypic changes, including morphological ones related to human influence, are known from a small number of bird species. The amount of change in a given time period, that is, the rate of change, may vary. Rates of change (both evolutionary and through phenotypic plasticity) are reportedly rapid in human-influenced settings, although this is disputed. We present new data on changes in beak dimensions and rates of change over historical time periods in four urban bird species (Common Chaffinch, European Greenfinch, Eurasian Blackbird, House Sparrow) from three Swiss cities (Basel, Bern, Geneva). Our study shows that beak dimensions have changed little in most investigated urban bird populations over the past century. Only in Genevan Blackbirds there was evidence for an increase in beak length over the past 65 years; Bernese Chaffinches appear to be trending toward a decrease in beak width over the past 55 years. Rates of change in our sample in comparison with literature records showed that compared to populations less influenced by humans, urban evolutionary rates appear to be similar. Although in accordance with previous findings about other urban bird species, our study exemplifies the difficulty to find universal patterns in tempo and mode of phenotypic evolution in urban areas, even when considering the same taxa. Our data contribute to the expanding field of urban evolutionary biology, which is particularly important regarding the growing urban habitats worldwide.

Considering care: A traumatic obturator fracture dislocation of the hip in a middle-aged man from Gaelic Medieval Ballyhanna, Co. Donegal, Ireland

ObjectiveThis article explores the potential care provided to a middle-aged man who had a suite of injuries evident in his skeleton, most notably an obturator fracture dislocation in his left hip. MaterialsThe skeleton derived from the Late Medieval Gaelic population buried at Ballyhanna, Co. Donegal, Ireland. MethodsA transdisciplinary bioarchaeology of care approach was adopted to undertake a phenomenological study of an individual with an acquired disability. ResultsThe man would have required intensive nursing care in the months following the initial injury, and longer-term accommodations may have been made by the wider community to support him. ConclusionsUse of a transdisciplinary bioarchaeology of care approach enables important insights to be gained concerning the social impact of disability on the affected individual, his kin, and wider community. SignificanceThis study achieves a new level of integration of bioarchaeological findings with archaeological, historical, and ethno-historical sources, thereby enabling a phenomenological approach to interpretation of life after acquired disability. This is the first study to allow such an intimate insight into lived experience and it provides a model for bioarchaeology of care analysis of individuals from historical eras. LimitationsThese include difficulties in identifying the nature of a long-standing complex injury. Suggestions for future researchFurther explorations of the bioarchaeology of care in historical time periods should incorporate a similarly wide range of transdisciplinary sources to enrich interpretations of the lived experiences of individuals, their care-givers and broader communities.

A comprehensive search string informed by an operational definition of complementary, alternative, and integrative medicine for systematic bibliographic database search strategies

BackgroundDetermining which therapies fall under the umbrella of complementary, alternative, and/or integrative medicine (CAIM) is difficult for several reasons. An operational definition is dynamic, and changes depending on both historical time period and geographical location, with many countries integrating or considering their traditional system(s) of medicine as conventional care. We have previously reported the first operational definition of CAIM informed by a systematic search. In the present study, we have developed a comprehensive search string informed by an operational definition of CAIM for systematic bibliographic database search strategies.MethodsWe developed a single search string for the most common bibliographic databases, including those searchable on the OVID platform (e.g., MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, AMED), the EBSCO platform (e.g., ERIC, CINAHL), Scopus, and Web of Science, using the finalised operational definition of CAIM’s 604 therapies. We searched the Therapeutic Research Center’s “Natural Medicines” database for all 604 therapies, and each item’s scientific name and/or synonym was included as a keyword or phrase in the search string.ResultsThis developed search string provides a standardised list of CAIM terms (i.e., keywords and phrases) that may be searched on bibliographic databases including those found on the OVID platform (e.g., MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, AMED), the EBSCO platform (e.g., ERIC, CINAHL), Scopus, and Web of Science.ConclusionResearchers can select relevant terms for their CAIM study and insert the keywords/phrases into these databases to receive all accessible data. This search technique can simply be copied and pasted into the search bar of each database to identify research by keywords, which is the most inclusive, or by words in the article title, which is more selective. Given its versatility across multiple commonly used academic platforms/databases, it is expected that this search string will be of great value to those conducting research on CAIM topics involving systematic search strategies.

Quantifying the Effect of Climate Change on Midlatitude Subseasonal Prediction Skill Provided by the Tropics

AbstractSubseasonal timescales (∼2 weeks–2 months) are known for their lack of predictability, however, specific Earth system states known to have a strong influence on these timescales can be harnessed to improve prediction skill (known as “forecasts of opportunity”). As the climate continues warming, it is hypothesized these states may change and consequently, their importance for subseasonal prediction may also be impacted. Here, we examine changes to midlatitude subseasonal prediction skill provided by the tropics under anthropogenic warming using artificial neural networks to quantify skill. The network is tasked to predict the sign of the 500 hPa geopotential height for historical and future time periods in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 ‐ Large Ensemble across the Northern Hemisphere at a 3 week lead using tropical precipitation. We show prediction skill changes substantially in key midlatitude regions and these changes appear linked to changes in seasonal variability with the largest differences in accuracy occurring during forecasts of opportunity.

Serial Editions in the Publisher Repertoire of Children’s Books of Udmurtia of the XIX–XXI Centuries

The sociocultural aspect of modern national book publishing is associated with the changing role of the book in society. A study of the development of a children’s book in Udmurtia in 1847–2010, an analysis of its repertoire, which includes more than 3,000 bibliographic entries, showed from various aspects that in the period under review, a children’s book develops very unevenly. No one has studied the trends in the genesis of serial publications for children in Udmurtia. An analysis of this problem will help to identify the direction of the publishing repertoire, the target and readership of a children’s book in different periods of its development, as well as enrich knowledge on the history of the region’s books, and increase interest in the national and domestic culture of the republic.The purpose of this article is to study the trends in the development of book series for children and youth of the Udmurt Republic throughout its historical existence in the 19th – early 21st centuries.The study of the repertoire of children’s books in Udmurtia, as a fundamental basis for the study of the cultural development of the people over a large historical period, made it possible to identify 80 series addressed to children of all ages, from preschool to high school students. We have considered all publications included in a certain series; its target and readership; the number of series in each historical period of time, the number of publications and the total circulation included in a certain series are determined; the origins of the series in a certain historical period are traced within the framework of the events that took place at that time and appropriate conclusions are drawn. The practical significance of such a study lies in the fact that it allows a comprehensive study of the process of regional and national book publishing in Udmurtia, taking into account the experience of the past and improving the publishing repertoire of the present.

Thematic analysis of scientific publications dedicated to the development of a greeting card in the context of its historical and socio-cultural

The purpose. To carry out a thematic review of scientific works published in recent years and devoted to the emergence and historical development of the postcard greeting card of the late nineteenth — early twentieth century in the context of its historical and socio-cultural development.The research methodology. The article uses well-known art methods: historical-cultural, historical-attribute, which cover the process of formation of a greeting card from the standpoint of socio-cultural and historical heritage, and not only from the standpoint of information, contribute to the evolution and figurative transformation of the greeting card. chronological order. Along with this, general scientific methods are used: comparative, analysis, synthesis, monitoring, systematization, statistical, historical and chronological, which allows scientists to analyze the communicative, philological component, to reveal the collection and classification of postcards. Based on this, we gain additional knowledge about the object of study.The results. A thematic review of scientific works published in recent years and devoted to the emergence and historical development of the postal greeting card of the end of the 19th — beginning of the 20th century in the context of its historical and socio-cultural development was conducted. The problems, content and main ideas of scientific publications are considered, in which scientists conduct an analysis of the communicative and philological component, reveal the issue of collecting and classifying postcards, highlight the process of creating a postal greeting card from the standpoint of socio-cultural and historical heritage, and not only from the standpoint of a means of transmission information.An overview of the directions of scientific research on postcards of the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th centuries was carried out. The authors of scientific works, for the most part, consider the history of the origin and formation of the greeting card (historical component), consider the postcard as one of the currents of fine art, in the context of studying the socio-cultural development of the corresponding historical period of time, propose methods of classification and attribution of postcards, considering the postcard from the point of view collecting, offering their approaches to exhibiting collectible collections of postcards by thematic areas. The article also includes scientific publications by authors who researched not only the front side of the postcard, which contains an artistic (graphic) image, but also the reverse side, which contains the text, postmarks, country of origin, dates of dispatch (production), etc. Attention is focused on the work, where the author for the first time carried out an analysis of the main directions of using the texts of open letters and developed methodical recommendations for their study.As a result of research, it was established that the majority of modern scientific works, articles and other publications on a certain topic belong to Russian scientists. The Ukrainian greeting card as an object of study of the phenomenon of graphic art remains out of the attention of domestic researchers, especially in the context of design. This requires further art studies of the peculiarities of the design of the domestic postal greeting card of the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th centuries from the standpoint of figurative, stylistic and cultural potential.Scientific novelty. Is to consider the issues, content and main ideas of scientific publications, in which scientists analyze the communicative, philological component, reveal the collection and classification of postcards, highlight the process of creating a greeting card from the standpoint of socio-cultural and historical heritage, not just means of transmitting information.Practical significance. Dissertation research can serve as a basis for practical work with postcard funds in departments of libraries, archives and museums; for the development of methodological recommendations aimed at improving the modern practice of publishing art postcards; while reading courses on the history of Ukrainian art of the end of the 11th and beginning of the 20th centuries, as well as preparing a general monographic study on the Ukrainian art postcard.

Historical data to inform the legal status of species in Europe: An example with wolves

Historical information is useful to set conservation baselines and, in turn, to inform the legal status of species and habitats. The conservation value of historic data has been acknowledged in international and national conservation laws, such as in the case of the implementation of the European Habitats Directive of 1992, and the guiding criteria for listing species and populations on the Spanish List of Threatened Species (BOE-A-2017-2977). We use the example of the debate on the appropriate legal status of wolves in Spain, and variation in wolves' range over the last two centuries, to illustrate the value of historical data to objectively inform legal decisions on the status of species. We carried out a quantitative analysis, using different methodological approaches, of the evolution of the range of wolves in Spain using historical information available in the geographical dictionaries edited by Pascual Madoz, in 1846–1850, and Germán Bleiberg, in 1956–1961 (>5800 and >7500 wolf records, respectively), as well as recent information on the range of the species in the last decade (2012–2020). Regardless of the approach used, or the historical time period considered, we estimated that, overall, wolves in Spain have not suffered a reduction in their historic range of ≥50 % over the last 100 years. We draw attention, however, to interpretative uncertainties of the law in relation to the interpretation of the term “historic range”, which require clarification from the Scientific Committee advising the Spanish Government.

A 150-year-old herbarium and floristic data testify regional species decline

Old herbarium specimens and historical floristic data give insight into regional floras for given time periods. They often cover historical time periods for which few other data are available. Herbaria thus allow the study of changes of the flora of a region across time. Using a 150-year-old regional herbarium together with a historical publication, we investigated to which extent the flora of the Swiss canton of Schaffhausen has changed, which habitats were particularly affected by local extinction, what the environmental requirements of extinct plants were and whether conclusions about the respective drivers such as land use change can be drawn. A total of 987 species were historically recorded in the study region of which 154 are currently no longer reported and are regionally extinct. This means that about one species disappeared from the region every year. Species that are currently in a high category of endangerment on the Swiss Red List have declined markedly in the canton of Schaffhausen, showing that Red Lists well portrait the endangerment of species. Looking at plant strategies, the more stress-tolerant and less competitive plants have disappeared. In addition, wetland, pioneer, ruderal and mountain species as well as agricultural weeds and light-demanding species showed highest extinction rates. In contrast, forest species had a low extinction rate, and species from fertilized meadows showed no decline. Our evaluation of a regional herbarium helps to inform nature conservation about particularly endangered habitats and possible drivers of species decline.

When is the long run?—Historical time and adjustment periods in demand‐led growth models

AbstractIn recent years, Post‐Keynesian analysis has been characterized by a renewed interest in long‐run theories of growth and distribution. While many authors have focused on the convergence of demand‐led growth models to a fully adjusted equilibrium, relatively little attention has been given to the time required to reach this long‐run position. In order to fill the gap, this paper seeks to answer the question of when is the long run in demand‐led growth models. By making use of numerical integration, it analyses the time of adjustment from one steady‐state to the other in two well‐known demand‐led growth models: the Sraffian Supermultiplier and the fully adjusted version of the neo‐Kaleckian model. The results show that the adjustment period is generally beyond an economically meaningful time span, suggesting that researchers and policy makers ought to pay more attention to the models' predictions during the traverse rather than focusing on steady‐state positions.

Military Defection During the Collapse of the Soviet Union

How did armed forces behave in response to dissent, political instability and territorial disintegration during the collapse of the Soviet Union? To date, substantial attention has been cast on the 1991 August coup attempt, yet our understanding of other potential instances of defection remains incomplete. This study undertakes a comparative analysis of defection throughout 15 Soviet republics. Results reveal that 13 republics experienced subordinates defecting and three experienced commanders defecting. In total, four different pathways led to defection. These findings produce the first comparative observations of defection in this historical time period and lend support to the claim that this phenomenon is equifinal in nature.

History of Archaeological Work and Attitudes Towards Antiquities at Uruk

Uruk, also known as Warka, is an ancient Mesopotamian site in modern Iraq that has been the focus of archaeological exploration for over 165 years. Excavations at Uruk have revealed cultural remains from the Eridu period (ca. 5000 BCE) until the Parthian and Sasanian periods (ca. first and second centuries CE). The site is a key point of reference for understanding the development of early urbanisation, writing, architecture, production, and social structure. Over 165 years, changing politics, methods of archaeology and attitudes towards antiquities have affected the way the site was handled. My project focuses on those critical changes which reveal the evolution of archaeology from a Western-dominated affair to a more inclusive practice. In this presentation, I will discuss and evaluate the history of archaeological work and attitudes towards antiquities at Uruk with an emphasis on the teams that excavated there, their methods of excavation, the conditions of the permits they were given, and significant finds and their subsequent distribution. The analysis will be divided into historical time periods (from the Ottoman Period to Iraq after the US-led invasion of 2003) based on the modern history of this region. Governmental and professional policies are also explored in regard to antiquities laws, methods of archaeology and local versus foreign involvement.

Operational definition of complementary, alternative, and integrative medicine derived from a systematic search

BackgroundIdentifying what therapies constitute complementary, alternative, and/or integrative medicine (CAIM) is complex for a multitude of reasons. An operational definition is dynamic, and changes based on both historical time period and geographical location whereby many jurisdictions may integrate or consider their traditional system(s) of medicine as conventional care. To date, only one operational definition of “complementary and alternative medicine” has been proposed, by Cochrane researchers in 2011. This definition is not only over a decade old but also did not use systematic methods to compile the therapies. Furthermore, it did not capture the concept “integrative medicine”, which is an increasingly popular aspect of the use of complementary therapies in practice. An updated operational definition reflective of CAIM is warranted given the rapidly increasing body of CAIM research literature published each year.MethodsFour peer-reviewed or otherwise quality-assessed information resource types were used to inform the development of the operational definition: peer-reviewed articles resulting from searches across seven academic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, AMED, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Scopus and Web of Science); the “aims and scope” webpages of peer-reviewed CAIM journals; CAIM entries found in online encyclopedias, and highly-ranked websites identified through searches of CAIM-related terms on HONcode. Screening of eligible resources, and data extraction of CAIM therapies across them, were each conducted independently and in duplicate. CAIM therapies across eligible sources were deduplicated.ResultsA total of 101 eligible resources were identified: peer-reviewed articles (n = 19), journal “aims and scope” webpages (n = 22), encyclopedia entries (n = 11), and HONcode-searched websites (n = 49). Six hundred four unique CAIM terms were included in this operational definition.ConclusionsThis updated operational definition is the first to be informed by systematic methods, and could support the harmonization of CAIM-related research through the provision of a standard of classification, as well as support improved collaboration between different research groups.

Dystopia, post-apocalypse and cinematic reading

The subject of the study is the study of such a specific genre as dystopia, which is the dominant form of society in post-apocalyptic worlds. The object of the study is dystopia and post-apocalypse in cinema, as well as their features in modern realities. In the course of the research, special attention is paid to the study of the substantive essence of such definitions as "dystopia", "apocalypse" and "post-apocalypse". Special emphasis is placed on the fundamental difference and differences between apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic events. Special attention is also paid to the reasons and factors that cause the return of popularity of dystopian narratives to cinema. In addition, the social, political and philosophical orientation of the genre of dystopia is considered. В В В В The main conclusions of the study are the conclusion that cinema, thanks to its dynamic audiovisual nature, allows dystopia to reveal its potential as an exciting and entertaining genre, while provoking the viewer to critical reflections and actions. The author's special contribution lies in the fact that during the analysis it was possible to substantiate the statement that the vision of dystopian cinema and, accordingly, the content of films varies depending on events occurring in a certain historical period of time, which allows us to depict various characteristics of the post-apocalyptic world. The scientific novelty of the research consists in conducting a discussion about the historical background of the terms "apocalypse", "post-apocalypse" and "dystopia" within the framework of the new millennium and the events that occurred and influenced the whole world and its perception of a possible end.

Integrating historical observations alters projections of eastern North American spruce–fir habitat under climate change

AbstractSpruce–fir (Picea–Abies) forests of the North American Acadian Forest Region are at risk of disappearing from the northeastern United States and Canada due to climate change. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to predict changes in this critical transitional ecosystem in the past, but none have addressed how seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation interact to influence tree species abundance. Inferences have also been limited by contemporary inventory data that could not fully characterize species ranges because they either, (1) only sampled species occurrence after large‐scale human disturbance and settlement, or (2) did not span critical geopolitical boundaries (e.g., the US–Canadian border) that intersect the focal species' range(s). Here, we built new SDM models to better assess the bioclimatic distribution of four spruce–fir species and to test the importance of seasonal climate interactions. We compiled an extensive database of tree occurrence and abundance from recent (~1955–2012) and historical time periods (1623–1869) to model current species distributions and to predict how these might change under future climate. We found that including historical tree data in our SDMs revealed previously unrecognized suitable habitat along the southern edge of species' contemporary ranges. Random forest models predicted occurrence with high accuracy (area under receiver operator curve >0.98), and the seasonal climate variables that emerged as most important for these cold‐adapted species all included interactions that reflected sensitivity to colder temperatures, and preferences for wet weather concentrated in the winter months. Under moderate climate warming (representative concentration pathway 6.0), the northeastern United States retained additional suitable habitat when historical data were included through 2060 for three of the four species: red spruce (Picea rubens), black spruce (Picea mariana), and balsam fir (Abies balsamea), while white spruce (Picea glauca) habitat contracted into Canada. In contrast, future predictions from models that used contemporary data alone forecast extirpation for all four species from the northeastern United States. Overall, these findings highlight that prediction of species ranges in transitional ecosystems that span geopolitical boundaries and gradients of intense land use are improved when historical data and seasonal climate interactions of both temperature and precipitation variables are incorporated.

Some features of the modern dialogue of civilizations

The concept of civilizations dialogue has emerged relatively recently but has undergone a number of changes during its existence. Not to mention the fact that there is no consensus in the scientific community on what exactly should be considered as a dialogue of civilizations. However, it is obvious that there have been and still exist mutual relations between peoples belonging to different civilizations, those relations that, in general, fall under the concept of «dialogue of civilizations». And it is also obvious that depending on a specific historical period of time or epoch, specific circumstances and many different conditions, this dialogue changed its forms. However, the essence of this dialogue and its basis, as it seems to us, remained unchanged, which was due to the very nature of a man. The article, as far as the scope of the article allows, reveals the essence and natural basis of the dialogue of civilizations. In addition, the article finds out what forms this dialogue has taken at the global level in recent decades and what caused the transformation of these forms. The world is changing rapidly, the pace of changes will only rise over time, and analysis of the above is needed.

Comparing little brown and big brown bat isotopic niches over the past century in an agriculturally dominated landscape

Abstract Agricultural intensification has caused population declines and reduced species diversity in both arthropods and their predators. Despite conservation and habitat management implications, the effects of land-use change on the trophic relationships between nocturnal arthropod predators and their prey have seldom been described. To assess how arthropodivorous bats may have shifted their diets in response to land-use changes, we compared bulk δ 13C and δ 15N values from little brown and big brown bat museum specimens and carcasses collected in the Upper Midwestern region of the United States from 1898 to 2019. As an exploratory analysis, we also investigated relationships between isotopic values and climate or landcover variables to quantify potential correlations with changes in arthropodivorous bat foraging patterns over time. Overall, we found that isotopic niche overlap of little brown and big brown bats increased from 24% to 45% between historical and contemporary time periods. Our results indicate that the isotopic niches of little brown bats have been largely conserved, whereas the isotopic niches of big brown bats are more flexible and became more similar to little brown bats over time. Further analyses showed that stable isotope values from arthropodivorous bat tissues were also correlated with certain landcover variables such as the prevalence of wetland, forest, and grassland habitats, but not with the prevalence of agricultural land on a local scale. These findings suggest that the foraging patterns of some aerial arthropodivores have shifted in response to the loss of habitat diversity and corresponding changes in prey resources.

Timing and magnitude of climate-driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management.

Climate change is shifting the distribution of shared fish stocks between neighboring countries’ Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and the high seas. The timescale of these transboundary shifts determines how climate change will affect international fisheries governance. Here, we explore this timescale by coupling a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model under a high emission climate change scenario to a dynamic population model. We show that by 2030, 23% of transboundary stocks will have shifted and 78% of the world's EEZs will have experienced at least one shifting stock. By the end of this century, projections show a total of 45% of stocks shifting globally and 81% of EEZs waters with at least one shifting stock. The magnitude of such shifts is reflected in changes in catch proportion between EEZs sharing a transboundary stock. By 2030, global EEZs are projected to experience an average change of 59% in catch proportion of transboundary stocks. Many countries that are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihood and food security emerge as hotspots for transboundary shifts. These hotspots are characterized by early shifts in the distribution of an important number of transboundary stocks. Existing international fisheries agreements need to be assessed for their capacity to address the social–ecological implications of climate‐change‐driven transboundary shifts. Some of these agreements will need to be adjusted to limit potential conflict between the parties of interest. Meanwhile, new agreements will need to be anticipatory and consider these concerns and their associated uncertainties to be resilient to global change.