Historical Seismology Research Articles

"California Earthquakes: Science, Risk and the Politics of Hazard Mitigation" by Carl Henry Geschwind

All seismologists will enjoy reading this seismological history. It begins with a short introduction on early studies of earthquakes, with detailed coverage spanning the decades from the 1906 San Francisco to the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Geschwind has synthesized available archives in a most interesting way and closely documented the interaction of science and government. My career as Professor of Seismology at the University of California at Berkeley, from 1963 to 1992, Director of the University's Seismographic Stations for twenty-seven years, and a member of the Seismic Safety Commission for fifteen years coincided with the latter period presented here, particularly Chapters 6–9. As a consequence, much of the book is subject to personal confirmatory recollections. This treatment does not deal with the advance of seismological theory in the twentieth century but does document the crucial growth of the observational side in California: field studies of faults, seismographic networks, and observatories. More central to Geschwind's interest is that “the regulatory-state apparatus in California is an outgrowth of the ideology of Progressivism” (p. 5). He demonstrates that the evolution of earthquake hazard mitigation in California is “not simply a story of response to natural disasters: also important is the degree to which mitigation advocates have organized and had the resources necessary to mobilize public opinion for the political process in pursuit of their goals” (p. 229). Reactions to the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and fire set the stage for so much of the subsequent history. In the early chapters, the historical research is comprehensive, with critical coverage of the principal issues and controversies. Incompleteness occurs only because accessibility of, and even existence of, primary sources is uneven. The problem is defined in the “Essay on Sources”, pp. 317–322. Chapter …

Paleoseismology along the Cittanova fault: Implications for seismotectonics and earthquake recurrence in Calabria (southern Italy)

This paper focuses on the seismogenic structure responsible for the 5 February 1783 earthquake (M> 7, Calabria, southern Italy), in particular the slip rate and recurrence time along the Cittanova fault, thus giving new insights on the seismic hazards and seismotectonics of the region. The 1783 earthquake, one of the strongest earthquake of the Mediterranean area, caused more than 30,000 casualties and radically changed the physiography of the local landscape. Until now, the Cittanova fault (or Aspromonte fault) has been generally identified as the surficial expression of the seismogenetic structure, even though its youthful activity has never been demonstrated. Recently, the shortage of geologic evidence of middle‐upper Pleistocene activity on this fault led some authors to locate the 1783 fault elsewhere. In our study we used a multidisciplinary approach (paleoseismology, geomorphology, historical seismology, archaeoseismology); our analysis of contemporary literary sources strengthened our interpretation of the coseismic origin of many geological features and, sometimes, oriented our field research toward specific areas. In particular, we excavated trenches and pits at three different sites along the trace of the Cittanova fault for paleoseismological analysis and14C dating. Our data document the Holocene and present activity of the Cittanova fault, providing a minimum vertical slip rate of 0.44 mm/yr and a possible return time of 1350–1800 years for earthquakes similar to 1783. The penultimate event has been dated to the 4th century A.D., a time when southern Calabria and eastern Sicily were devastated by an earthquake documented by archaeoseismic analyses.

Sulaimani Seismic Swarm during Spring 1999, NE IRAQ

A swarm of earthquakes struck Sulaimani city, or the first time in the known recorded historical seismology of the area during spring 1999_ More than (73) quakes which have magnitudes ranges between (2-4. 7) degree were recorded, as well as handreds of tremors., The epicenters were indicated They are locating NE Sulaimani by distance of about (5-11)km, The approximate depths of the hypocenters show that the swarm had been generated from shallow depths ranging between (2- 11) km The total energy released was calculated to be about (26 X 1017) erg, which is equivalent to an earthquake of magnitude (5.1) degree. The cause of the swarm interpreted to be the continuous movement of sitak Sulaimani transverse fault during this period.

次世代の史料地震学 日本の史料地震学研究の問題点と展望 次世代の地震史研究に向けて

There remain many challenges in using historical documents to reconstruct a reliable history of earthquakes in Japan. Previous catalogs of historical earthquakes in Japan are not conclusive and contain uncertainties about date, hypocenter, magnitude, and tectonic interpretation of each earthquake. There is no database of digital texts of historical documents, which describe each earthquake. Since the density of historical records in Japan is temporally and spatially heterogeneous, seismologists should carefully remove apparent changes of earthquake frequency, which are caused by the heterogeneity of record density. There is, however, no detailed database of the density variation of historical records. The number of researchers, who are interested in historical earthquakes, is small.The situation stated above is caused mainly by the multi-disciplinary character of historical seismology. Japanese seismologists, who usually have little knowledge of history and classical literature, are not qualified to read a historical document and evaluate its reliability.The environment for research on historical seismology is, however, getting better. Japanese historians have published and are still publishing many historical documents, sometimes with translations into modern language. Evaluations of the reliability of each document can easily be done by referring to historical dictionaries or other databases. All these publications and information are available in many libraries. It is now easy and stimulating for many seismologists to read, evaluate, and interpret historical documents.

Introduction to the Special Issue “Historical Seismology of Next Generation”

Introduction to the Special Issue “Historical Seismology of Next Generation”

次世代の史料地震学 文献史料からみた東海・南海巨大地震 １． １４世紀前半までのまとめ

A large volume of historical documents in Japan show that great subduction earthquakes have repeatedly occurred along the Suruga-Nankai trough off southwest Japan since A.D. 684 with an interval of 100-200 years. They occurred as pairs of M8 events, one in the eastern half (Tokai earthquake) and another in the western half (Nankai earthquake), as was the case for the 1854 Ansei earthquakes, while sometimes occurring as single giant events like the 1707 Ho'ei earthquake. Although the space-time pattern of their recurrence is the best-known in the world, we should study more past events in order to understand the tectonophysical bases of their recurrence. In this respect I review the present understanding of historic Tokai and Nankai earthquakes and discuss related problems from the viewpoint of historical seismology. In this paper, the first of the three in all, I review the events until the early half of the 14th century. The keys to identifying older events are strong ground motion and damage in Kyoto, Nara, and Osaka, those in wider area of southwest Japan, tsunamis along the Pacific coasts of southwest Japan, typical coseismic vertical crustal movements of the Kochi plain, the Muroto and Oma'ezaki points, and the Ise and Suruga Bay coasts, temporal inactivity of specific hot springs, and aftershock activities recorded in Kyoto. The 684 Hakuho earthquake was definitely a Nankai event, and possibly included a Tokai event simultaneously (possibly Ho'ei type). The 887 Nin'na earthquake was also a definite Nankai event and was probably a Tokai event as well (Ho'ei type). The 1096 Eicho earthquake was clearly a Tokai event, but the following 1099 Kowa earthquake has some discrepancies that prevent it from being regarded as a M8 Nankai event. It is not clear yet whether great earthquakes occurred or not in the ca. 200 year intervals of 684-887 and 887-1096. It seems probable that great Tokai and Nankai earthquakes took place in the mid-13th century, but a more detailed investigation of historical seismology is required to discover the missing event.

次世代の史料地震学 古地震研究における自然資料と歴史資料の関わり 地震予知への貢献

次世代の史料地震学 古地震研究における自然資料と歴史資料の関わり 地震予知への貢献

The supposed Egyptian earthquakes of 184 and 95 B.C. Critical review and some lines of research in historical seismology using Greek papyri from Egypt

In the context of a project to update the data collected in the catalogue of Guidoboni et al.(1994), we noticed that two Egyptian earthquakes of 184 and 95 B.C. mentioned in the catalogue of Ambraseys et al. (1994, p. 20) were not included. A search to verify whether these two events should be added to the list of seismic events in the ancient Mediterranean area led to the conclusion that the two Egyptian earthquakes of 184 and 95 B.C. never occurred. The texts cited by the authors (a papyrus and an inscription) seem to deal with other events; in fact the word seismós, which has among others the meaning of 'earthquake', in these sources means 'blackmail' or 'extortion'. This conclusion leads to further discussion of relationships between ancient history and historical seismology and in particular of the use of Greek papyri from Egypt to study ancient earthquakes. A research project on Greek papyri, which will also consider other kinds of evidence such as Coptic literary and documentary texts, has been initiated by a group of researchers belonging to the SGA, in order to continue investigation of ancient earthquakes in the Mediterranean area.

Inference and Assumption in Historical Seismology

The principal aim in studies of historical earthquakes is usually to be able to derive parameters for past earthquakes from macroseismic or other data and thus extend back in time parametric earthquake catalogues, often with improved seismic hazard studies as the ultimate goal. In cases of relatively recent historical earthquakes, for example, those of the 18th and 19th centuries, it is often the case that there is such an abundance of available macroseismic data that estimating earthquake parameters is relatively straightforward. For earlier historical periods, especially medieval and earlier, and also for areas where settlement or documentation are sparse, the situation is much harder. The seismologist often finds that he has only a few data points (or even one) for an earthquake that nevertheless appears to be regionally significant.

Earthquakes in medieval Sicily. A historical revision (7th-13th century)

The need to understand the activity of the main seismogenetic structures, to calculate the recurrence periods of major earthquakes and to identify their main epicentral areas, requires wide-ranging research in the field of historical seismology. The present research was conducted in the framework of the projects of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (1991-1995). The presence of different populations and ruling elites, and hence of languages and cultures, has in many cases confused the historical context of the medieval Sicilian sources. However, by going beyond the local sources, and analysing the events in a wider European and Mediterranean context, taking due account of the Byzantine, Latin and Arab sources, it has been possible to identify five seismic events that do not exist in the Italian catalogues or whose dates are very difficult to establish. Six spurious events have been deleted thanks to the revision (659, 785, 796, 963, 1069, 1259); the date of an event has been corrected (1140 into 1125) and five unknown events have been discovered: 853, 1172, 1203-1204, 1255-1256 and 1295-1296. The data on which these findings are based are in many cases dispersed and unused within the many specialised sectors of historical research; in some cases they are unknown even to historians. An example of textual analysis of the sources is also presented to show by what a roundabout route the chronological parameter for the 1125 earthquake was reached. The new events confirm the high seismicity of the eastern area of Sicily; nevertheless, the newly identified series does not seem to show any seismic event comparable to the one that struck the Messina Strait, in 1908 (I0 = XI MCS, M = 7.2): this historical element can provide information regarding the return times of such great event; a hypothesis is formulated by the authors: it will have to be carefully examinated by archaeology research. The criteria used in this research are explained, as well as the problems tackled in accordance with the method for the revision of the historical earthquakes adopted by ING-SGA.

The weight of pseudo-objectivity

For nearly twenty years, numerous methodological problems of historical seismology, sometimes set in a wider frame, have been discussed by a continuous sequence of papers. One or another paper emphasized the role of pscudo-objectivity without, however, pronouncing these ominous words. Ultimately the need was I'clt to deal with the weight of pseudo-objectivity jn a sll.aightforward way, although scientists, as one enlightened reviewer of this paper wrote, often do not dare to rajse problems of a more or less psychological and episte- mological kind. Besides generaI statements, a random set of surprising examples is given, from the author's own experience or tì.om his readings. The major problem of computerized catalogues is emphasized. Even modern macroseismic enquiries, sometimes considered a routine work, don't escape the pitfalls of pseudo-ob-jectivity. While subjectivity is despised, with sometimes extreme statements, condemning historical seismology on the whole, a kind of "constructive subjectivity" with an ability to master complex problems, seem, preferable to the dangers of a growing pseudo-objectivity.

From Crimea to Syria. Re-defining the alleged historical earthquake of 63 B.C.

Within the SGA research on the historical seismicity of the Crimean Peninsula (SGA Report, 1990), interest has been focused on the case of the earthquake of 63 B.C. According to regional seismic catalogues as well as to historic and archaeological literature, two late Roman sources. Dio Cassius and Paulus Orosius, allegedly give evidence of an earthquake which happened in the Crimea in this year; the event was linked to the death of Mithridates V1 Eupator, eventually the king of Pontos. Local archaeologists claimed to have found evidence of this event in the excavations of Panticapaeunl (present-day Ker?). In fact. this is the result of a restricted analysis of the written sources. Thence stems a sort of iivulgatan. currently accepted by scholarship, yet not really supported by the evidence. A re-examination of the whole question, including an analysis of all sources avalaible on earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean. showed that in that period no seismic event took place in the Crimea. Dio's and Orosius' accounts are instead concerned with another earthquake, already known for Syria from other sources. This historical case gives a proper methodological example of the problems concerned with the analysis of the evidence in historical seismology. not only of Antiquity, but of almost any premodern period.

Collapses and seismic collapses in archaeology: proposal for a thematic atlas

The problem of how to recognise seismic collapse lies at the basis of the possibility of using archaeological sources in the rield of historical seismology. Hitherto this problem has been approached in an arbitraiy and subjectile manner, because there exists no systematic collection of data which permits access to a specific series of case histories in the field of archaeological collapse, distinguishing their numerous causes. The problein is also posed because archaeological techniques are by nature ~destructivena, nd important seismic traces may disappear and no longer be utilizable in the scientific sphere. The authors point our this documentary lacuna, and propose the compilation oT a thematic atlas on seismic collapses in archaeology: a new disciplinary tool. which may also prove useful for those concerned with the protection and conservation of archaeological areas

Prospects for the development of historical seismology and the study of ancient monuments in Armenia

Prospects for the development of historical seismology and the study of ancient monuments in Armenia

A concise history of mainstream seismology: Origins, legacy, and perspectives

The history of seismology has been traced since man first reacted literarily to the phenomena of earthquakes and volcanoes, some 4000 yr ago. Twenty-six centuries ago man began the quest for natural causes of earthquakes. The dawn of modern seismology broke immediately after the Lisbon earthquake of 1755 with the pioneering studies of John Bevis (1757) and John Michell (1761). It reached its pinnacle with the sobering discourses of Robert Mallet (1862). The science of seismology was born about 100 yr ago (1889) when the first teleseismic record was identified by Ernst von Rebeur-Paschwitz at Potsdam, and the prototype of the modern seismograph was developed by John Milne and his associates in Japan. Rapid progress was achieved during the following years by the early pioneers: Lamb, Love, Oldham, Wiechert, Omori, Golitzin, Volterra, Mohorovicic, Reid, Zoppritz, Hergoltz , and Shida . A further leap forward was gained by the next generation of seismologists, both experimentalists and theoreticians: Gutenberg, Richter, Jeffreys, Bullen, Lehmann, Nakano, Wadati, Sezawa, Stoneley, Pekeris , and Benioff . The advent of long-period seismographs and computers (1934 to 1962) finally put seismology in a position where it could exploit the rich information inheren in seismic signals, on both global and local scales. Indeed, during the last 30 yr, our knowledge of the infrastructure of the Earth's interior and the nature of seismic sources has significantly grown. Yet, an ultimate goal of seismology, namely, the prediction of earthquakes, is not forthcoming. In spite of vast deployment of instruments and manpower, especially in the United States and Japan, no substantial progress has been made in this direction. The nonlinear dynamic processes at the sources of earthquakes are not yet understood, and with the lack of proper mathematical tools and physical theory, breakthrough is not apt to come through computers and seismographs. The conclusion of the present historical study can be succinctly phrased as follows: seismology has reached a stage where its lofty goals cannot be pursued by seismologists alone. Unless we launch a concentrated interdisciplinary research effort, we shall always be surprised by the next major earthquake.

Seismic effects of the strongest historical earthquak in the Syracuse area

The effects of earthquakes that occurred in a given area contribute significantly to the evaluation of to local seismic hazard. The information concerning historical earthquakes of the Mediterranean area covers many centuries, but the wealth of information made available by historical seismology does not appear to ha taken into account by engineering seismologists. By adopting "attenuation laws" based on data contained in the seismic catalogues, not only do we sometimes come up against the gross errors normally found jn logues, but we also lose sight of important details relating to the characteristics of urban seismic scenarios this paper we describe the results obtained from the analysis of seismic scenarios in Ortigia (old Syracuse this analysis we emphasized the qualitative and descriptive data to outline the "largest historical eve reassessed the data concerning five earthquakes that occuned in 1169,1542,1693,1757 and 1846, w reported by the Catalogue of Italian Earthquakes with an intensity greater than or equal to IX MCS epicentre of which was located within 50 km of the city. The last two of these earthquakes turned out t result of mistakes in the transmission of the news and have therefore been removed trom the list of de events. In addjtjon, we reconstructed the damage caused by the 1542 and 1693 earthquakes on a ma ancient town of Ortigia, taking into account the economic, demographic, and urbanistic conditions of t The empirical elements supplied to evaluate the local seismic response can also be of use in the preservation of historical buildings.

Comrie: a historical scottish earthquake swarm and its place in the history of seismology

Earthquake swarm activity at Comrie, Perthshire was particularly marked in the period 1839–1846. It served as a focus for early scientific interest in earthquakes in the UK, chiefly under the aegis of the British Association for the Advancement of Science. The work done included both macroseismic and instrumental investigations, and saw the first use of the inverted pendulum in seismology, as well as the first seismometer network anywhere in the world.

Historical seismology in the ESC

Historical seismology in the ESC

Earthquake Yields First Real Evidence of Remote Triggering

Just before dawn on 28 June last year, the Mojave Desert 200 km east of Los Angeles was struck by a magnitude‐7.3 earthquake. Although the Landers earthquake, named for the small town nearest the epicenter, was stronger than the earthquake that had rocked San Francisco three years earlier, it attracted little public attention, because the region is so sparsely populated. But it made seismological history. The dense and extensive network of seismographic stations built up in the Far West during the 1980s has provided convincing evidence that the Landers quake triggered secondary tremors as far away as Yellowstone National Park, 1250 km to the northeast.

Seismic uplift of the harbour of ancient Aigeira, Central Greece

The Mavra Litharia cove, between Akrata and Derveni, in the North Peloponnesian coast (Central Greece), has been identified as the site of the harbour of the Hellenistic Aigeira, one of the very few natural harbours along the uplifting, fault-controlled North Peloponnesian coast.Geomorphological, marine biological and archaeological data as well as radiocarbon dating of marine fossils testify to a 2 m relative land uplift since Hellenistic times (around 2000 years BP), part of which (1 m at least) was probably seismic, dated to the Byzantine period (AD 900-1200). This palaeoseismic event, as well as others deduced from archaeological data, are not included in the historical seismology records, but had probably dramatic impacts on the economic and cultural history of ancient Aigeira.The amplitude of uplift at Mavra Litharia is of the same order of magnitude as submersion dominating the Aegean and, with the exception of the arc, the higher Holocene uplift rate recorded in this area and the surrounding regions. This result is consistent with the Quaternary uplift history of North Peloponnesus.