Historical Scenarios Research Articles

Credit rating migration risk and interconnectedness in a corporate lending network

This study assesses the credit rating migration risk and interconnectedness in Japan's corporate lending market during the fiscal years 2008–2015. First, the study conducts a portfolio credit risk analysis by using outstanding lending data with borrowers’ and lenders’ names. The results show an expected shortfall with tail dependence of t-copula captures the heavy-tailed risk of Japanese institutions. The study also measures credit risk exposures and credit risk amounts by industry sector, and evaluates sector concentration risk. Subsequently, the study analyzes the network structure of lending contracts using network centrality measures. From the perspective of the network, institutions play a central role in terms of degree centrality. Further, the study undertakes a stress test using a historical economic scenario pertaining to a credit rating migration matrix shortly after the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy. The test finds a much sparser network structure due to a large number of firm defaults. The study's analysis offers banks and insurers important implications regarding credit risk management of corporate lending.

Do ofício à sala de aula da educação profissional

Este trabalho teve a finalidade de compreender por que profissionais formados em cursos superiores de tecnologia e bacharelados estão frequentando curso de formação pedagógica de docentes num cenário histórico e atual marcado pela desvalorização social da profissão docente e precarização das condições do trabalho do professor. Constituído numa perspectiva qualitativa e dialética, foi produzido por meio de um estudo de caso realizado com 50 estudantes que frequentam um curso dessa natureza no ano de 2019. Foi aplicado um questionário com questões abertas e fechadas, onde os citados estudantes revelaram os motivos/razões que os levaram a frequentar o curso. A pesquisa bibliográfica teve incidência em obras de Candau et al. (2013), Gatti et al (2009, 2019), Imbernón (2009), Tartuce, Nunes e Almeida (2010), Libâneo (2008) e Machado (2008). No trabalho é apresentado o percurso metodológico adotado, a caracterização do curso e as singularidades dos sujeitos envolvidos, assim como os fatores que estão contribuindo para esses sujeitos estarem frequentando um curso de formação de professores. Essas particularidades indicam que os partícipes da pesquisa vislumbram a expectativa de se tornarem professores e buscam no curso de formação de professores um repertório de conhecimentos didático-pedagógicos que lhes possibilitem uma atuação competente e contextualizada.

Diversification history of clown tree frogs in Neotropical rainforests (Anura, Hylidae, Dendropsophus leucophyllatus group)

General consensus emphasizes that no single biological process can explain the patterns of species’ distributions and diversification in the Neotropics. Instead, the interplay of several processes across space and time must be taken into account. Here we investigated the phylogenetic relationships and biogeographic history of tree frogs in the Dendropsophus leucophyllatus species group (Amphibia: Hylidae), which is distributed across Amazonia and the Atlantic rainforests. Using Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) and double digest restriction-site associated DNA (ddRADseq), we inferred phylogenetic relationships, species limits, and temporal and geographic patterns of diversification relative to the history of these biomes. Our results indicate that the D. leucophyllatus species group includes at least 14 independent lineages, which are currently arranged into ten described species. Therefore, a significant portion of species in the group are still unnamed. Different processes were associated to the group diversification history. For instance, the Andes uplift likely caused allopatric speciation for Cis-Andean species, whereas it may also be responsible for changes in the Amazonian landscape triggering parapatric speciation by local adaptation to ecological factors. Meanwhile, Atlantic Forest ancestors unable to cross the dry diagonal biomes after rainforest’s retraction, evolved in isolation into different species. Diversification in the group began in the early Miocene, when connections between Atlantic Forest and the Andes (Pacific Dominion) by way of a south corridor were possible. The historical scenario in Amazonia, characterized by several speciation events and habitat heterogeneity, helped promoting diversification, resulting in the highest species diversity for the group. This marked species diversification did not happen in Atlantic Forest, where speciation is very recent (late Pliocene and Pleistocene), despite its remarkable climatic heterogeneity.

Portfolio stress testing applied to commodity futures

In this article, we construct a portfolio of commodity futures which mimics the Dow Jones Commodity Index and perform an extensive stress testing exercise with a focus on hybrid scenarios. The increased volume of investments in commodities as financial instruments over the last decades underline the importance of a more thorough framework for stress testing of related portfolios. Our study is the first to show comparatively the marginal impact of the model choice for portfolio components versus the marginal role of tail dependence on the portfolio profit and loss in stress testing exercises. We model the distribution of returns of portfolio components with an asymmetric AR-GARCH model combined with Extreme Value Theory for extreme tails, and employ multivariate copula functions to model the time-varying joint dependence structure. Our study reveals that indeed, for a realistic stress test, a special attention should be given to the tail risk in individual commodity returns as well as to tail correlations. We also draw conclusions about parameter risk persistent in stress testing exercises. Finally yet importantly, in line with Basel IIIb, the study highlights the importance of using forward-looking hybrid and hypothetical scenarios over historical scenarios.

On the Diagrammaticity of Ancient Texts and Its Importance for the History of Science: Based on the Example of the Early Chinese Mathematical Text The Gnomon of the Zhou

Even when ancient texts consist simply of discourse, they are available to historians through documents in which they are displayed with diagrammatic features (e.g., lines, columns, paragraphs, sections). Usually these diagrammatic features are not mentioned in critical editions, which often even reshape them. With the example of the Chinese mathematical canonical text The Gnomon of the Zhou, this article argues that these diagrammatic features sometimes give historians essential clues for tackling key issues. The author shows how taking these features into account might help when interpreting sentences that have never really been understood. The author argues that the interpretation of these sentences suggests a historical scenario for the production and dating of the text of The Gnomon of the Zhou. Interestingly, this scenario echoes what is indicated by the diagrammatic features of the recently excavated mathematical manuscripts. This scenario also is supported by the different types of knowledge in mathematics and the astral sciences that different parts of the text display. Finally, the argument suggests that the 1213 edition of The Gnomon of the Zhou was faithful to diagrammatic features of very ancient documents through which the text was handed down. The author provides evidence that shows eighteenth-century philologist Dai Zhen seemed to have understood this point.

Extensive cytonuclear discordance in a crested newt from the Balkan Peninsula glacial refugium

Abstract Integration of multilocus data and species distribution modelling into phylogeography allows mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA)-based scenarios to be fine-tuned. We address the question of whether extensive mtDNA substructuring in the crested newt Triturus macedonicus from the Balkan Peninsula is matched in the nuclear genome. We determine the intraspecific population structure based on 52 nuclear DNA markers and project a species distribution model on climate layers for the Last Glacial Maximum. We show that T. macedonicus accumulated nuclear DNA population structure in an area predicted to have been climatically stable during the Pleistocene, with four nuclear DNA groups in the western part of the species range. The distribution of these nuclear DNA groups shows little agreement with that of mtDNA structuring, which shows three highly distinct species-specific clades and a fourth one introgressed from another crested newt species. This cytonuclear discordance conveys that historical biogeographical scenarios based on mtDNA exclusively should be interpreted with caution. Our findings further highlight the important role the Balkan Peninsula has played in the evolution and preservation of European biodiversity.

Driving Factors and Future Prediction of Land Use and Cover Change Based on Satellite Remote Sensing Data by the LCM Model: A Case Study from Gansu Province, China.

Land use and cover change (LUCC) is an important issue affecting the global environment, climate change, and sustainable development. Detecting and predicting LUCC, a dynamic process, and its driving factors will help in formulating effective land use and planning policy suitable for local conditions, thus supporting local socioeconomic development and global environmental protection. In this study, taking Gansu Province as a case study example, we explored the LUCC pattern and its driving mechanism from 1980 to 2018, and predicted land use and cover in 2030 using the integrated LCM (Logistic-Cellular Automata-Markov chain) model and data from satellite remote sensing. The results suggest that the LUCC pattern was more reasonable in the second stage (2005 to 2018) compared with that in the first stage (1980 to 2005). This was because a large area of green lands was protected by ecological engineering in the second stage. From 1980 to 2018, in general, natural factors were the main force influencing changes in land use and cover in Gansu, while the effects of socioeconomic factors were not significant because of the slow development of economy. Landscape indices analysis indicated that predicted land use and cover in 2030 under the ecological protection scenario would be more favorable than under the historical trend scenario. Besides, results from the present study suggested that LUCC in arid and semiarid area could be well detected by the LCM model. This study would hopefully provide theoretical instructions for future land use planning and management, as well as a new methodology reference for LUCC analysis in arid and semiarid regions.

ТЕАТР ИДЕЙ И БЕСКОНЕЧНЫЙ ПЕРФОМАНС ИСТОРИИ: ПОЭТИКА РОМАНА ВЛ. ШАРОВА «РЕПЕТИЦИИ»

The historian and writer Vladimir Sharov was worried about the lack of historical memory, its preservation, against the background of the tragically repeating events in the Russian history. Considering the borrowing of ideas, ready-made development scenarios, and their artificial inculcation on the Russian soil to be disastrous, the author raises the question of the choice of one’s path by the people and each person who makes it up. The article considers the poetics of the novel “Rehearsals” through the prism of the development of the idea of God’s chosen people of Russia and the mythology of the Second Coming of Christ in Russia. Analyzing the historical scenarios represented by the three narrators, we traced their implementation in the life of a closed community, accidentally created by the French comedian Sertan. A tooliteral understanding of their roles in the performance based of the Gospel of Matthew, excessive performativity, turns the lives of sectarians into a vicious circle of rehearsals, followed by massacres. The hero can break this circle only when he realizes the possibility of independently building his destiny without breaking with his past.

The Effect of Live Theatre on Business Ethics

While many authors have theorized about the ability of the humanities to enhance business ethics education, scant empirical work exists to support this speculation. We therefore conduct a study to measure the impact of a live theatre performance on ethical reasoning. We asked students to analyze an ethically-laden historical disaster scenario both before and after attending a performance featuring related narrative themes. Our hypothesis is that attending a live performance would cause students to take a more ethical view of an industrial disaster case study. Results show support for the notion that live theatre may impact individuals’ ethical decision-making as applied to a representative business case. Specifically, we found a significant difference in what parties students hold responsible, what actions students think should have been taken, and how cultural norms affect students’ perceptions of ethical obligations. We therefore suggest that live theatre may be a novel pedagogical tool in business ethics education.

Um relato de resistência no Sertão Alagoano: a (re)organização espacial da Etnia koiupanká na Aldeia Roçado em Inhapi/ AL

Os indígenas nordestinos possuem em seu contexto etnográfico a luta pela herança territorial e pela autoafirmação de sua identidade etno-cultural enquanto povos nativos. No entanto, é importante ressaltar que o cenário histórico dos povos indígenas, sobretudo do Sertão Alagoano, também é marcado pelas constantes diásporas em busca de reorganização de sua aldeia, em virtude das incessantes repressões, desde o período colonial. O objetivo do trabalho é externar as dificuldades e ações de resistência da etnia alagoana Koiupanká, salientando as lutas pelo território e pela concretude de sua autoafirmação etno-cultural. Realizou-se uma aula de campo e um levantamento bibliográfico, para melhor entendimento do assunto. Debruçamo-nos teoricamente nas discussões sobre o tema em Vieira (2010; 2017), Amorim (2010), Boas (2004), Cunha (2009) bem como realizamos uma visita técnica à comunidade indígena. Com base nas informações coletadas, buscou-se destacar as atividades e manifestações culturais na Aldeia Roçado, relatar sobre a luta territorial de resistência da etnia Kouipanká e elucidar suas dificuldades e conquistas. Os Koiupanká tiveram o reconhecimento étnico, mas mesmo assim não foi suficiente para conseguir a demarcação das terras. A Escola Estadual Indígena Anselmo Bispo de Souza é uma das formas de resistência, por meio do ensino-aprendizagem, da instrução e compartilhamento de saberes, tanto culturais quanto saberes externos da sociedade não indígena. A referida escola desempenha um papel fundamental na comunidade de preservação da memória dos seus ancestrais e na formação dos alunos para que sejam participantes da transformação da sua comunidade.

QBO Changes in CMIP6 Climate Projections

AbstractPhase 6 of the Coupled‐Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the first in which a significant number of models include a well‐resolved stratosphere. Changes in equatorial stratospheric variability in historical and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenario simulations are investigated in 10 models with realistic quasi‐biennial oscillations (QBO). All project a weakening of the QBO throughout the stratosphere for SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios and for 1960 to 2010. The weakening is strongest in the lower stratosphere, ranging from % to % to % per decade at 50 hPa for SSP585, SSP370, and historical simulations, respectively. At 20 hPa a weakening of both westward and eastward phases contributes though the weakening eastward phase is only seen in 7 of the 10 models. Similar robust weakening occurs for the temperature QBO, but only from 30 hPa upward. In both scenarios the QBO period decreases in 7 of the 10 models.

Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects

Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections, especially at regional and decadal scales. A new collection of initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) generated with seven Earth system models under historical and future radiative forcing scenarios provides new insights into uncertainties due to internal variability versus model differences. These data enhance the assessment of climate change risks, including extreme events, and offer a powerful testbed for new methodologies aimed at separating forced signals from internal variability in the observational record. Opportunities and challenges confronting the design and dissemination of future LEs, including increased spatial resolution and model complexity alongside emerging Earth system applications, are discussed. Climate change detection is confounded by internal variability, but recent initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) have begun addressing this issue. This Perspective discusses the value of multi-model LEs, the challenges of providing them and their role in future climate change research.

Critical appraisal of Bayesian dynamic borrowing from an imperfectly commensurate historical control.

Bayesian dynamic borrowing designs facilitate borrowing information from historical studies. Historical data, when perfectly commensurate with current data, have been shown to reduce the trial duration and the sample size, while inflation in the type I error and reduction in the power have been reported, when imperfectly commensurate. These results, however, were obtained without considering that Bayesian designs are calibrated to meet regulatory requirements in practice and even no-borrowing designs may use information from historical data in the calibration. The implicit borrowing of historical data suggests that imperfectly commensurate historical data may similarly impact no-borrowing designs negatively. We will provide a fair appraiser of Bayesian dynamic borrowing and no-borrowing designs. We used a published selective adaptive randomization design and real clinical trial setting and conducted simulation studies under varying degrees of imperfectly commensurate historical control scenarios. The type I error was inflated under the null scenario of no intervention effect, while larger inflation was noted with borrowing. The larger inflation in type I error under the null setting can be offset by the greater probability to stop early correctly under the alternative. Response rates were estimated more precisely and the average sample size was smaller with borrowing. The expected increase in bias with borrowing was noted, but was negligible. Using Bayesian dynamic borrowing designs may improve trial efficiency by stopping trials early correctly and reducing trial length at the small cost of inflated type I error.

Emergency decision-making model of environmental emergencies based on case-based reasoning method

Environmental emergencies are characterized by high uncertainty, complex evolution, and potential for serious damage, thus posing enormous pressure and difficulties to the emergency responses of enterprises and governments. Improving the efficiency and quality of emergency decision-making constitutes the primary focus of today's research in this field. This study systematically analyzes the scenario evolution mechanism of environmental emergencies with a multi-dimensional scenario space method, and key scenario factors are identified from disaster-inducing factors, disaster-bearing factors, disaster-pregnant environments, and emergency actions. Based on these, an emergency decision-making model for environmental emergencies (EEEDM) is constructed based on case-based reasoning (CBR). First, different matching algorithms are designed for accurate numerical data, fuzzy semantic data, and symbolic data. The similarity between the target scenario and the historical scenario is calculated, and the historical scenario similarity set is built according to the given threshold value. Finally, the emergency action plan of the scenario is modified with its utility value evaluated. A solution that applies to the target scenario is then obtained. Additionally, the decision-making model proposed in this paper is validated by an example of environmental emergencies. The results show that this model is scientific and reasonable, and it can better realize the multi-dimensional expression and fast matching of the scenarios and meet the decision requirements of “scenario-response”. In practice, the model is capable of providing support for relevant departments' emergency decision-making.

Quantifying the relationship between streamflow and climate change in a small basin under future scenarios

Abstract Previous studies have identified the importance of simulating and quantifying the relationship between hydrologic variation and climate change under historical scenarios at regional and continental scales. However, robust demonstration of the potential of combining consistent land use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change to simulate future hydrologic processes is still lacking. Furthermore, investigating the future connections between hydrologic characteristics and climate variables demands exploration of these phenomena at small (basin) scale. To fill this gap, this research simulates land use/cover patterns in 2030 based on the logistic Cellular Automata-Markov model. Then the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulates change in streamflow within the Ashuelot River basin in New England between 2002–2009 and 2032–2039. Projected climate data are obtained from two general circulation models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. We also quantify relationships between the rates of change (RC) of streamflow, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) among 29 subbasins at a monthly scale between the two time periods under different climate scenarios by implementing a panel data approach. Results show greatest changes in forestland (−21.07 km2) and intensive urban land (+5.4 km2) by 2030. Comparisons between the two periods show a negative overall trend in runoff under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for both selected GCMs. Panel data analysis indicates that precipitation may contribute more to the RC of streamflow when change in streamflow is significantly influenced by both PET and precipitation over the study period. Therefore, this study provides an important insight into quantifying and comparing the relationship of basin-scale change between streamflow and future climate.

City branding. Features of urban image design

In the article the authors consider the foundations of the methodology related to the creation of the “urban brand,” as well as methodological approaches to solving the set of environmental problems, which play a significant role in forming an authentic image of the city and increasing attention to the urban environment on the example of a specific conglomerate, including for attracting tourist flows. The novelty of the author’s approach is evident in the integrated consideration of the issue with the inclusion of multifunctional programs and interaction of various disciplinary fields, including issues related to graphic art, urban environment improvement, history, literature, philosophy and architecture. The development of the brand of the modern city is seen by the authors in the implementation of various historical and cultural urban scenarios taking into account socio-economic indicators and the involvement of design technologies capable to create a “new face of the city» including landmark historical spaces and objects that increase the complex status of the place in the city scenario.

Current expected credit loss procyclicality: it depends on the model

The new guidelines for loan loss reserves, current expected credit loss (CECL), were initially proposed so that lenders’ loss reserves would be forward-looking. Some recent studies have suggested that CECL could be procyclical, meaning that loss reserves would peak at the peak of a crisis. Although it is better than seeing failure only after it has happened, being required to raise liquidity at the peak of a crisis could still fail to save the lender from collapse, and it may even facilitate the latter. However, previous procyclicality studies have explained all losses using macroeconomic factors, ignoring the changes in credit risk and other portfolio drivers that preceded the recession. The current work looks at a wide range of models to test the degree to which CECL is procyclical for different types of model. The tests were also run using real historical macroeconomic scenarios, flat scenarios or mean-reverting scenarios. All tests were conducted on publicly available data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac using publicly disclosed models. Our study found that CECL lifetime losses timates were only marginally sensitive to the quality of the economic scenario but changed dramatically with different modeling techniques. Some methods predicted increased loss reserve requirements as early as 2006, while others only saw the recession as it happened or even afterward. Therefore, procyclicality under CECL will be strongly influenced by the choices of the lender.

Evaluation of River Fragmentation and Implications for the Conservation of Migratory Fish in Southeastern Brazil.

In freshwater systems, the abundance and diversity of long-distance migratory fish are limited by the maintenance of longitudinal connectivity and natural flow regimes of rivers. Using a graph-based view of each riverscape, we analyzed the river fragmentation process and overlapped with the probable number of migratory species in each remaining stretch. Applying this methodology in basins, we assess historical and potential scenarios quantifying segment extensions free from dams determining the fish richness based on the available habitat for each species. The highest number of migratory species was observed in fragments longer than 100 km. In the future scenario, there was an increase in the number of fragments, with an increase in the number of stretches shorter than 50 km, inadequate to maintain most of the migratory species. Segments of the highest classification order and located in the longest lotic fragments were considered the most important for the species habitat conservation. Dam construction in these segments could seriously affect the ecological processes at a regional level. The proposed analyses enable to approach basins with high diversity of species and nonsalmonid species, supporting the lack of base data concerning those areas, and determine priorities for studies and conservation.

Global phylogeography and genetic diversity of the long-finned pilot whale Globicephala melas, with new data from the southeastern Pacific

The matrilineal long-finned pilot whale presents an antitropical distribution and is divided into two subspecies, one in the temperate seas of the Southern Hemisphere and the other restricted to the North Atlantic and Mediterranean. Until now, population genetic and phylogeographic studies have included localities of most of its Northern Hemisphere distribution, while only the southwestern Pacific has been sampled in the Southern Hemisphere. We add new genetic data from the southeastern Pacific to the published sequences. Low mitochondrial and nuclear diversity was encountered in this new area, as previously reported for other localities. Four haplotypes were found with only one new for the species. Fifteen haplotypes were detected in the global dataset, underlining the species’ low diversity. As previously reported, the subspecies shared two haplotypes and presented a strong phylogeographic structure. The extant distribution of this species has been related to dispersal events during the Last Glacial Maximum. Using the genetic data and Approximate Bayesian Calculations, this study supports this historical biogeographic scenario. From a taxonomic perspective, even if genetic analyses do not support the subspecies category, this study endorses the incipient divergence process between hemispheres, thus maintaining their status and addressing them as Demographically Independent Populations is recommended.

Integrative Groundwater Studies in a Small-Scale Urban Area: Case Study from the Municipality of Penafiel (NW Portugal)

The occurrence of groundwater in urban hard rock areas is mostly controlled by secondary permeability caused by the fracturing degree and weathering grade. Vulnerability GIS-mapping, monitoring, and infiltration/recharge of water resources, and the delineation of the environmental protective background are key issues in evaluating, planning, managing, and decision-making for urban water systems. A small-scale urban area in Penafiel City was used as a case study. Historical and current scenarios were compared using hydrogeological GIS-based modelling. Water sources and potential contamination sources were mapped around the study area. Groundwater is mainly acidic, with a low mineralization and a Cl-Na to Cl-SO4-Na or Cl-Ca to Cl-SO4-Ca hydrogeochemical facies. Considering potential contamination sources, the moderate and the moderate-high classes dominate the area. The combined approach of the vulnerability indexes suggests that most of the area has a low to moderate vulnerability to contamination. The Infiltration Potential Index in urban areas (IPI-urban) indicates the prevalence of a low to moderate infiltration. Groundwater recharge evaluation indicates values < 2.3 mm/year and <60 mm/year for summer and winter scenarios, respectively. Finally, the investigation addresses insights for decision-makers for the appropriate planning and sustainable management of groundwater resources in small-scale urban areas.