Historical Analogies Research Articles

Own the Unknown: An Anticipatory Approach to Prepare Society for the Quantum Age

Quantum technology promises to shift the boundaries of what machines can do. Advancing our capacities to acquire, process and transmit information, quantum technology has the potential to impact nearly all domains in society. Therefore, we should start anticipating the future role of quantum technology and the ethical, legal, social and policy implications that come with it. One way of informing ourselves about how to do this is by making use of historical analogies. The Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR) developed a framework for embedding so-called system technologies into society based on a historical analysis of how society dealt with such technologies in the past. In this article, the conceptual framework of system technologies is reinterpreted as an anticipatory strategy to prepare society for quantum technology and vice versa. The proposed strategy has five dimensions: (1) countering unrealistic perceptions (demystification), (2) investing in a facilitating socio-technical environment (contextualisation), (3) engaging stakeholders and civil society (engagement), (4) creating flexible frameworks (regulation) (5) and developing international ‘quantum diplomacy’ (positioning). By actively engaging in these processes, society enables itself to guide the development of quantum technology and its impact within society.

Seeing shapes in clouds: the fallacy of deriving ecological hypotheses from statistical distributions

The explanations behind observations of global patterning in species diversity pre‐date the field of ecology itself. The generation of new species–area theories, in particular, far outpaces their falsification, resulting in a centuries‐old accumulation in species diversity theories. We use historical assessment and new data analysis to argue that one of the earliest recognized and most consistent patterns in species diversity is not strictly an ecological phenomenon and, when ecological mechanism is invoked, the range of potential mechanisms is too numerous for tractable hypothesis falsification. We provide a historical parallel in that the normal distribution once was treated as a pattern assuming a biological mechanism rather than a statistical distribution that can be generated by biological and non‐biological forces. Similarly, power law distributions are ubiquitous in aggregated data, such as the species–area relationship. That nearly identical broad‐scale aggregation patterns are observed for both ecological and non‐ecological data as a function of area suggest that these broad‐scale patterns reflect a statistical distribution that, in itself, cannot be used to discern between or among ecological and non‐ecological mechanisms. We argue that by seeking processes in such a ubiquitous pattern, ecologists may read ecological mechanism into statistical patterns, and we suggest that falsifying broad‐scale diversity distribution hypotheses should be a greater priority than generating or parameterizing new ones.

ХЕРЦ У РУКАВУ

The paper analyses two controversial historical stories about love related to the Serbian and Romanian Royal Courts, which caused stormy criticism and national scandals during the last century. Draga Masin (Draginja P. Milićević Lunjevica, 1867–1903), a royal damsel who became the Serbian Queen, was the wife of King Alexander Obrenovic of Serbia. Elena Lupescu (Elena Lupescu Magda Wolf, 1895–1977), a mistress, and later the wife of the Romanian King Carol II (first son of Prince Ferdinand of Hohenzollern – Sigmaringen and of Marie of Edinburgh), left remarkable traces in the history of Romanian monarchy. By confronting different perspectives we will try to show the (de)construction of the characters Elena Lupescu and Draga Masin during the 21st century. Entering the closed circle of ties with members of the nobility where blue blood must not be confused with unworthy blood and thus contaminated – the starting point of our paper is to identify the historical typological analogies between Draga and Elena by means of motives of blood and class identity. Recent historiographical tendencies shed new light on the earlier notions regarding these two female figures that are often condemned and considered taboo in society.

Prospects for scientific communications in social sciences and humanities sphere in current conditions

The article discusses the place of social sciences and humanities in the system of scientific knowledge in modern Russia, and shows on the example of historical memory, and how their importance to ensure national security and development of society as a whole, especially emphasizing the predictive function, has increased in the current context. The problem of the transition from old forms of scientific communication to new ones: from printed publications to digital tools of production, storage and distribution of scientific knowledge is considered. Drawing historical parallels, the author explains how important to maintain the position of domestic science and our country in the world to make this transition, and emphasizes the role of the editors and editorial boards in solving this problem.

“Living in History*”: Bush, World War II, and the Use of Historical Analogies in the Gulf Crisis

On August 2, 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait. Over the next three days, President George H.W. Bush, his advisors, and world leaders would debate and determine the United States' goals and objectives. These decisions would compel the country's trajectory for the next several months. The process regarding the determination to reverse Iraqi aggression, if necessary with force, provides a compelling case study regarding the use of historical analogies in presidential decision making. Using original archival research, this in‐depth history reveals that historical analogies played a key role in shaping policy on the eve of the Iraq War. This article provides the most complete history of the use of analogies in the initial response to the Gulf crisis to date, as well as valuable insight into the Gulf War, President H.W. Bush, and the process of presidential decision making.

Proximization and dialogue in Internet news texts and comments

AbstractThe paper presents the results of an empirical study on proximization approached as a dialogue between journalists and readers of Internet media texts and online comments. In this way the paper shows a practical application of the research programme, whose tenets I presented elsewhere (Kowalski 2018), in relation to Polish and Romanian reciprocal media coverage on the winter 2016/2017 protests in the two countries, and follow-up online comments. The analysis shows that participants used proximization for different communicative purposes (descriptive or evaluative), for which they employed different reportoires of proximization strategies (categorization, domestication, construing hybrid IDC/ODC worlds, historical analogies, and references to cultural stereotypes). As a result, there was no consensus on a shared Discourse Space, and alternative Discourse Spaces were negotiated in the online dialogue.

Timing and causes of forest fire at the K–Pg boundary

We report K–Pg-age deposits in Baja California, Mexico, consisting of terrestrial and shallow-marine materials re-sedimented onto the continental slope, including corals, gastropods, bivalves, shocked quartz grains, an andesitic tuff with a SHRIMP U–Pb age (66.12 ± 0.65 Ma) indistinguishable from that of the K–Pg boundary, and charred tree trunks. The overlying mudstones show an iridium anomaly and fungal and fern spores spikes. We interpret these heterogeneous deposits as a direct result of the Chicxulub impact and a mega-tsunami in response to seismically-induced landsliding. The tsunami backwash carried the megaflora offshore in high-density flows, remobilizing shallow-marine fauna and sediment en route. Charring of the trees at temperatures up to > 1000 °C took place in the interval between impact and arrival of the tsunami, which on the basis of seismic velocities and historic analogues amounted to only tens of minutes at most. This constrains the timing and causes of fires and the minimum distance from the impact site over which fires may be ignited.

Can we learn from the past? Towards better analogies and historical inference in society-environmental change research

In light of the challenges posed by contemporary environmental changes, interest in past environmental impacts and societies’ responses to them is burgeoning. The main strength of such research lies in its ability to analyze completed society-environment interactions. Scholars have argued that such analyses can improve our understanding of present challenges and offer useful lessons to guide adaptation responses. Yet despite considerable differences between past and present societies, our inherently limited knowledge of the past and our changing understanding of it, much of this research uses historical antecedents uncritically, assuming that past societal impacts and responses are directly analogous to contemporary ones. We argue that this approach is unsound both methodologically and theoretically, thus drawing insights that might offer an erroneous course of action.To illustrate the challenges in drawing historical analogies, we outline several fundamental differences between past and present societies as well as broader limitations of historical research. Based on these points, we argue that scholars who apply historical inference in their work should do so critically, while reflecting on the objectives of learning from the past and the limitations of this process. We suggest a number of ways to improve past-present analogies, such as defining more explicitly what we can learn from the past, clarifying the rationale for using the analogy, and reducing the number of variables compared between past and present.

“REVERSE” ORDER OF SLAVIC PALATALIZATIONS

The historical phonetics of Slavic languages inevitably raises the question of the origin of the so-called second and third palatalizations (*k > *c), to clarify their articulatory causes and historical parallels for the palatalizations themselves - or for their components. The accepted names of Slavic palatalizations (“first”, “second”, “third”) are conditional. How much they are conditional is the question that will be attempted to reveal in this small study. The article considers the model of Slavic palatalizations that combines the models by D. Cohen and H. Lunt, i. e. the following order of palatalizations: progressive, then 2 regressive (that gives *c), then 1 regressive (that gives *č). Advantages of this model are shown, and the relative chronology of sound changes leading to the observed system of Slavic palatalizations is described in detail. This approach helps us to re-analyze the cases of progressive palatalization in Slavic and propose a new formula for it, leaving out the right context and position after ę, which is explained differently. The new formula looks as follows: K after {r̥, ī/ĭ, ū/ou (questioned), š}. Then a depalatalization is observed before ū/ŭ, n, l, r, which is unambiguously late in case of ū. This formula leads us to relation of Slavic progressive palatalization to Pedersen’s RUKI law in satəm languages, if we consider both of them as progressive assimilation of tongue retraction feature. Reflex of *Kti might be one more consequence of this assimilation.

Censorship Through Explanation: The Corrective Agency of Visibility in Panoramic Perspective and the Panopticon Prison Plan

This essay argues that historical parallels exist between Australian colonial image production and early-19th-century prison design in England. It compares similarities in the compositional arrangement of a panoramic perspective from the Van Diemen’s Land colonial frontier in 1835, by minor artist John Richardson Glover, and Jeremy Bentham’s 1791 plan for the Panopticon prison. Richardson Glover’s predilection for censoring the unknown environment in his drawings with rational explanations is associated with the cultivation of spectatorship since 1793 in the popular visual media of the Panorama Rotunda at Leicester Square. The influence of spectatorship is argued to parallel the instrumentality of inspection in the Panopticon plan and together reflect a social rationale that equated biblical references to universal rationalism and anoints visibility as a secular, Enlightenment mode of moral reformation. Spectatorship and inspection in panoramic perspective and the Panopticon plan are shown to operate as corrective forces to govern British imperial interests at home and abroad.

On Some Historical Aspects of Money Laundering in Russia and China

Aim. In this article, the author seeks to analyze some of the characteristic features of various forms of money laundering in Russia and China, with reference to the chronicles of past centuries, starting from the moment this phenomenon arose, which later became widespread in both countries.Tasks. To realize the main aim, the author gradually solves logically interconnected tasks: firstly, to identify the oldest forms of legalization of illegal income in Russia and China; second, to trace the logic of evolutionary changes in money laundering in the historical practices of both countries; thirdly, compare the Russian and Chinese experience in the studied system of economic structural and functional ties.Methods. When writing the material, methods of chronological reconstruction, historical analogy, analysis and synthesis, comparative studies were used.Results. The author established that for the first time corruption mechanisms for the legalization of illegal income arose in China in the 4th century BC, while in Russia this practice is clearly traced only from the 15th century. The article shows that in China during the Tang Dynasty (VII–X century AD), money laundering methods demonstrated active development, and then reached a level critical for maintaining statehood in the era of the Opium Wars (XIX century), although they were subsequently partially leveled during the socialist period of Chinese statehood in the twentieth century. By analogy, the author considers the historical background of the evolution of money laundering mechanisms in our country in the era of feudal fragmentation, as well as tsarist and Soviet power. The article attempts to compare two historical paintings — Russia and China.Conclusion. The author concludes that the processes of legalizing illegal funds in Russia and China have similar features and are intensified in connection with the most important historical events, therefore, modern models of money laundering and countering this illegal activity have characteristic features formed by cultural experience in a particular country.

Looking Back at the Gouzenko Defection

A historical perspective aids our understanding of the present and capacity to anticipate the future. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but particularly its brutality and policy of “constructive destruction,” was shocking and unexpected, but faced with Russia’s relegation from superpower status, it was always a possibility that Putin would emulate Stalin’s determination to maintain Russian influence in the world and challenge the West’s dominance. The risk of recurrent totalitarianism borne of the fear, distrust, and mutual demonization which characterized the ideological rivalry of the early Cold War years has led to a search for historical analogies of relevance to the growing East/West tensions of today that threaten to bring about a second Cold War or limited nuclear conflict. The motivating ideology for Russian expansionism is no longer Communism, but a mythical narrative that promotes Russian nationalism, patriotism, and exceptionalism. Putin’s authoritarian state with its concentration of power and recourse to propaganda, disinformation, and lies is daily looking more Stalinesque and the Cold War question—how to contain Russian ambition—remains to be answered. While the focus has so far been on Stalin’s geopolitical strategy regarding Russia’s near neighbors, two books about the first post–World War II defection in 1945 merit re-visiting for the in-depth analysis and insights they provide into the period and the mindset of participants caught up in that affair. The defector, Igor Gouzenko, a Russian cyber clerk, insisted that Russia was preparing for a Third World War. His revelations precipitated the start of the Cold War.

Financial market analogies of the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

ABSTRACT This article tries to shed light on the historical analogies of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. To that end, we compare the sample distribution of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index returns for a 420-day period (from 2 January 2020 to 31 August 2021), with all historical sample distributions of returns computed using a moving window of 420 days in the 2 January 1900 to 1 May 2018 period. We find that the stock market return distribution during the pandemic would be similar to several past sub-periods of severe financial crises that evolved into intense recessions, being the sub-sample from 3 June 1986 to 28 January 1988 the most analogous episode to the present situation. Furthermore, we also identify a period from 23 June 1931 to 24 February 1933 where the severity of the crisis overcomes the pandemic situation having sharper tail events. Finally, we find that the current stock market CVaR risk is not higher than that observed during the 1930s.

Imagining maritime conflict in the Indo-Pacific: can analogies substitute for strategy?

ABSTRACT Historical analogies are sometimes used to imagine the scope and nature of a potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific. Using analogies, scenarios, and “images” of future war, instead of strategy, however, can produce an inadequate assessment of future material, operational, and tactical requirements that will be encountered by the U.S. Navy in the maritime domain. Without a long-term strategy to set force development and guide operational requirements, the U.S. Navy will suffer from a “strategy deficit” when it comes to dealing with deterrence, coercion, and escalation in the Indo-Pacific. As planning guidance, the use of analogies is no substitute for strategy.

Narrating Crisis and Continuity in Migration Debates in the Visegrád States

Narrating Crisis and Continuity in Migration Debates in the Visegrád States

An Insufficient Canon: The Popol Wuj, Book of Mormon, and Other Scriptures

An Insufficient Canon: The Popol Wuj, Book of Mormon, and Other Scriptures

Сільськогосподарські практики в малих містах Північно-Східної України

The article is dedicated to a poorly studied topic in ethnology: agricultural practices in small towns. For a number of reasons attention is paid to settlements of northeastern Ukraine, namely Chernihiv and Sumy regions. The phenomenon of household activities of people residing in urban areas in their ordinary everyday lives as well as in the realities of war is described in a new way, basing on historiography, various sources, and especially on field heuristics. The study of the research subject and the fulfilling of the objectives are carried out in the chronological framework of today, but the work also contains many retrospectives and historical parallels. The research has shown that agricultural practices typical for small towns residents – agriculture and animal husbandry – are historically acquired experiences. It has been proved on the example of one town that architectural and spatial landscape with its distinctive buildings and household objects is the typical feature of human activity. At the same time, a careful analysis of individual agricultural practices and animal husbandry managed by citizens allowed us to understand a number of issues which have not been considered before. In particular, the dominant industries in urban households were identified. It is determined that current agricultural practices are used not only for subsistence but also for commercial purposes, with special attention being paid to urban agriculture. The forms of its existence in recent decades are described. In addition, the models of individual agriculture and animal husbandry are characterized. As a result of studying various aspects of townspeople farming in wartime, the new facts have been revealed and introduced for the first time. The author has come to rather interesting conclusions, which project the way to further urban studies.

PHILOSOPHY AND MANAGEMENT: PARALLELISM AND CORRELATIONS IN THOUGHT EVOLUTIONS

This study aims to trace the historical parallelism and correlation in thought evolutions between Philosophy and Management. Historical parallelism speaks about the side-by-side progress of Philosophy and Management as distinct disciplines, whereas correlation deals with how they relate and interact with each other. Philosophy and Management, though in themselves are distinct and self-determining disciplines, are significantly interrelated. The central problem in this research paper is to find out when, how and why do Philosophy and Management mutually impact and enrich each other. Consequently, this study is conducted using the historical-hermeneutical research methodology, which requires reading a lot of resources on the thought evolutions of both sciences. The analysis progresses by first looking separately into the early thought developments of Philosophy and Management, wherein a general treatment on the nature and essential elements of both Philosophy and Management are laid down. Afterwards, the researcher focuses on how these two disciplines advanced and converged as related thoughts, which are articulated in the following formulations: “Philosophy in Management” and “Philosophy of Management.” Hopefully, the outcome of this study would significantly aid students to find more meaning and relevance in studying Philosophy and Management as correlated and integrated sciences.
 
 Keywords: Philosophy, Management, Parallelism, Correlations, Thought Evolutions

Наступление нарциссической культуры: заметки на полях

The response to the article by P.A. Orekhovsky and V.I. Razumov “The Onset of Narcissistic Culture: Consequences for Education, Science and Politics” is not a fully analytical review. It represents the result of certain empathy and it is also an attempt to articulate some thoughts generated by the reflection of modern social reality. The reviewed article was only the trigger for starting this work. Associations and intuitions, which appeared after reading of this article, indicate that the material presented by P.A. Orekhovsky and V.I. Razumov was able to bring the consciousness of a modern man out of the “comfort zone”. This fact suggests that the material presented by these authors has high relevance, which immediately raises the relevance of all its reviews. Despite the fact that the article under consideration is more essayistic than scientific, the object of investigation is narcissistic culture in modern conditions, when, according to P.A. Orekhovsky and V.I. Razumov, postmodernism serves as a unique medium for its dissemination. The subject – some features of its influence on the human community, including its manifestations in our country. As a set of methods of research or consideration of the problem, we use a combination of general logical methods, the method of historical analogies, elements of a systematic approach, as well as elements of an approach to social phenomena from the perspective of reconstructed archaic consciousness, its principles and its values. The most general conclusions of reviewing the article by P.A. Orekhovsky and V.I. Razumov are that narcissistic culture is a relatively obsolete (do not mix it with ‘archaic’) variant of pathological social development. It gained new strength in the conditions of technological progress, the emergence (or rather, reproduction) of thinking, which in post-industrial society was defined as postmodern. During the recent political confrontation of social systems, it was used as an ideological weapon. It launched the processes that turned out to be poorly controlled and it can only be resisted from the standpoint of healthy conservatism and the promotion of traditional values.

The Lublin triangle in Europe’s economic security system in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war of 2014-2022

Formulation of the problem. At the present historical stage, the issue of European continental security is becoming especially relevant against the background of Russian aggression. This is obvious and hardly questionable. Ukraine has always played the role of a defender of Western civilization in European history. Apart from Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania have performed and continue to perform the same function. Speaking in the language of historical analogies and comparisons, it is impossible in this aspect not to mention such a large and powerful state formation as the Commonwealth. Ironically, this state also emerged against the background of Muscovy's expansion in the east. The need for common security in Central Europe has always been and remains relevant. Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine are at the forefront of Europe's sustainable development. Today it is the forefront of the entire civilized world. Therefore, the formation of the Lublin Triangle between Kyiv, Warsaw and Vilnius is a historical, political, economic, humanitarian necessity. In fact, the Lublin Triangle is a tripartite regional alliance for political, economic, cultural and social cooperation between Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine, aimed at strengthening dialogue between countries, supporting Ukraine's integration into the European Union and NATO and jointly countering Russian aggression in Ukraine. The idea of such a union belonged to Vyacheslav Chornovil and Adam Czartoryski. The economic component of this association is extremely important, as it is the basis for the formation of a system of sustainable development of the region. European aggression is contrasted with European balance and economic stability. Analysis of recent research and publications. The theme of the Lublin Triangle and the importance of this organization in the modern development of Europe is becoming increasingly important. However, this issue is still more in the political and journalistic sphere of consideration. Economic research on this topic has not yet been developed. Although some attempts are being made. Rather, the scientific issues themselves are determined, which in the future will have different areas of research. The purpose of this study is to analyze the state and prospects of the unification of Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine as a stabilizing economic factor in the security system of Europe within the framework of the Lublin Triangle. Results of the research. The analysis of this issue proves that the unification of the three states - Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine, within the Lublin Triangle has serious prospects and can act as a powerful formation in the economic security of Europe, especially in the context of Russian military expansion. Conclusions. The Lublin Triangle, as an intergovernmental union, is primarily designed to counter Russian aggression and pressure on the European Union. The role of Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland for many centuries has been to protect the European continent from Russia's imperial advance on Europe and to slow down the development of European countries. At the present time, this problem has become very acute and significant. The countries of the Lublin Triangle have a strong economic potential, are of serious trade and communication interest in the North-South, West-East directions, and are a kind of outpost in defense of Western civilization. The Lublin Triangle political union is quite capable of economically protecting Europe from the negative impact of Russia's expansion on the EU.