Historical Occurrence Research Articles

A Data-Driven Model to Generate Disruptive Scenarios for Infrastructure Resilience Studies

This work proposes a data-driven model that uses data on natural disasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to enable predictive analytics and simulation of disruptions caused by natural hazards. Random generation of disruption is something that would be simple to implement. Still, it might not help researchers/policy-makers test the resilience from the occurrence of a natural disaster standpoint. Natural hazards such as a hurricane, tornado, or tropical storm are usually uncertain to predict unless we deploy a complex prediction algorithm that takes different atmospheric variables into account. Rather than diving into the meteorological predictive techniques, a data-driven model is proposed using the apriori algorithm to rely on historical data. Historical data-based techniques help generate disruption scenarios based on their historical occurrence and their topographical propagation. This, in turn, gives us disruptions that are historically significant and possible from their occurrence perspective.

Historic and recent occurrences of Kievan nettle (Urtica kioviensis Rogow.) in Hungary

This paper presents occurrence data of Urtica kioviensis Rogow. in Hungary from the 20th century till today, based on a survey of six Hungarian public herbaria and the literature. Altogether 84 herbarium sheets from 9 counties, 83 literature records mentioned from 12 counties, and 57 flora mapping data were encountered. Based on these, we updated the distribution map of the species in Hungary. We found that the typical habitats of U. kioviensis in Hungary include marginal zones of bog forests, reeds, and old small watercourses. We report two newly discovered locations of the species in the Hanság area. Near Fehértó, in a peat-forming reed bordering a lake, approximately 150 plants were found, while in the vicinity of Dör, in a former open pit sand mine, approximately 300 plants were observed. The habitat at Dör is secondary, the current vegetation must be the result of progressive succession processes that started after the abandonment of sand mining. The integrity of Hungarian habitats has been threatened in recent decades by increasingly frequent climatic anomalies (mainly water shortages due to the lack of precipitation for long periods) and anthropogenic factors (fragmentation of biotopes, organic/inorganic substances washing into groundwater), which may cause a decrease in the number of plants. As a significant part of the distribution area of the species is located in Hungary, the protection of its populations and habitats is also of key importance.

Review

Review

Trade-offs between environmental and economic factors in conversion from exotic pine production to natural regeneration on erosion prone land

Background:Some of New Zealand’s exotic pine (Pinus radiata D.Don) forests were planted for erosion mitigation but cultural, legislative, environmental, and profitability limitations in some parts of the landscape have led to reassessment of their suitability. There is limited information to support landowner decisions on the viability of natural regeneration of native forest post-pine-harvest.Methods:We evaluated scenarios of post-harvest natural regeneration, compared to remaining in pine production, using erosion susceptibility determined from historical occurrence of landslides, gullies and earthflows, biophysical growth modelling of mānuka–kānuka (Leptospermum scoparium-Kunzea ericoides (A.Rich) Joy Thomps.) shrubland using the process-based CenW model, and cost-benefit analyses using NZFARM with two land use change scenarios, at two levels of erosion mitigation ± honey profits.Results:In our study area, the Gisborne Region (North Island of New Zealand), ~27% of the land has moderate–very high susceptibility to landslides, 14–22% a high probability of contributing material to waterways, and 19% moderate–very high gully erosion susceptibility. Pines grow 10 times faster than naturally regenerating mānuka–kānuka shrubland, but mānuka–kānuka is used for honey not wood production. Natural regeneration resulted in losses of $150–250 ha−1 yr−1 compared to the current profitability of pine production. Honey production offset some reduction in pine revenue, but not fully. Thus, the viability of shifting from pines to native forest is highly dependent on landowner impetus and value for non-market ecosystem services (such as cultural and biodiversity values) provided by native forest.Conclusions:A mosaic of land uses within a property may sufficiently offset income losses with other benefits, whereby highly erosion-prone land is shifted from rotational pine forest production to permanent native forest cover with honey production where possible. At the regional scale in Gisborne, the conversion of the most highly susceptible land under production forestry (315–556 ha) to natural regeneration has the potential for wider benefits for soil conservation reducing erosion by 1–2.5 t yr−1 of sediment facilitating achievement of cleaner water aspirations and habitat provision.

장소의 맥락을 반영한 메모리얼 디자인 분석 연구

This study investigates unique ways which memorial designs get social comforts and historical continuity from particular sites. The study finds, only when the memorials were designed by echoing the contexts of places they radiate the meanings of occurrences that happened on the sites. The study figures out the concept of “placeness” and defines the contexts of “place” from literature reviews. And then, the study designs an analyzing framework which connects memorial designs to the contexts of “places”. They are locations, surroundings, memorized ones and their narration, which reflect on the space, function, and symbolic connection of the memorials. As case studies, the study analyzes four memorials, which are Memorial to the Abolition of Slavery at Nantes, 11-M Memorial at Madrid, The Ring of Memory at Northern France, The Rivesaltes Memorial in Southern France. From the case studies, this study finds the design methods of the memorials in the contexts of their places as follows. First, the memorials often define their spaces in dual contexts of ground levels and underground levels which maintain daily urban spaces as well as create memorial spaces. However, the memorials in non-urban areas often combine their spaces to surrounding nature in order to emphasize their relation to the ground. Second, the memorials connect to the contexts of places functionally in the ways of recording connected to the programs of surrounding institutions, the exhibitions of memory, and the involvement of art works. Third, the memorials relate to the contexts of places symbolically in the ways to introduce time continuity, absentees, and the image of eternity and peace. The study concludes that the memorials in the sites of historic occurrences interpret the contexts of sites in creative ways and then create their unique identities in their spaces, functions, and symbols in the contexts of places.

Vulnerability of Subaerial and Submarine Landscapes: The Sand Falls in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico

The coastal landscape of the south of the Baja California peninsula provides significant socio-economic benefits based on tourism. An analysis of coastal vulnerability was conducted for Cabo San Lucas, considering wave climate conditions, sediment characterization, beach profiles, and the historical occurrence of coastline changes, hurricanes, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The coastal scenery was also classified considering the landscape value of the environment from a touristic point of view, based on human and natural interactions on the landscape. Results show that the vulnerability increases close to the submarine sand falls, near intense urbanization, in resort areas, and at locations with narrow beach and dune widths. The degree of vulnerability along the coast alters abruptly, as urban and recreational sites alternate with natural sites. This coastline has seen exponential development since the 1980s, resulting in highly vulnerable areas with a low, and decreasing, touristic value, as the landscape has been changed into an urban settlement with limited natural attractions. Urban and recreational settlements threaten to cover dunes and reservoirs of natural sediments, increasingly affecting vulnerability in the area as well as the landscape values of many parts of the coast, including the submarine sand falls.

No longer regionally extinct: a review of Pallas’s Cat Otocolobus manul records from the Caucasus with a new record from Armenia (Mammalia: Felidae)

The Pallas’s Cat Otocolobus manul is among the rarest mammals of the Caucasus, being recorded only in the 1920–1930s in south-western Armenia and once observed (skin) in 1996 in the neighbouring areas of the Arax basin. For this reason, so far it was considered as regionally extinct in the Caucasus. In this paper we present a recent (January 2020) record of this species in north-eastern Armenia about 140 km away from the nearest historical sites. We provide details of this record and associated habitats, and discuss all published information known so far on the historical occurrence of the species in the Caucasus. We show that only five small areas are suitable for the existence of this species in Armenia. The western limits of Khosrov Forest State Reserve hold the largest tract of suitable habitats. Protected areas play a minor role in Pallas’s Cat conservation.

Early presence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Mexico with a contemporary dominance of the global panzootic lineage.

Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is a devastating infectious disease of amphibians. Retrospective studies using museum vouchers and genetic samples supported the hypothesis that Bd colonized Mexico from North America and then continued to spread into Central and South America, where it led to dramatic losses in tropical amphibian biodiversity (the epizootic wave hypothesis). While these studies suggest that Bd has been in Mexico since the 1970s, information regarding the historical and contemporary occurrence of different pathogen genetic lineages across the country is limited. In the current study, we investigated the historical and contemporary patterns of Bd in Mexico. We combined the swabbing of historical museum vouchers and sampling of wild amphibians with a custom Bd genotyping assay to assess the presence, prevalence, and genetic diversity of Bd over time in Mexico. We found Bd-positive museum specimens from the late 1800s, far earlier than previous records and well before recent amphibian declines. With Bd genotypes from samples collected between 1975-2019, we observed a contemporary dominance of the global panzootic lineage in Mexico and report four genetic subpopulations and potential for admixture among these populations. The observed genetic variation did not have a clear geographic signature or provide clear support for the epizootic wave hypothesis. These results provide a framework for testing new questions regarding Bd invasions and their temporal relationship to observed amphibian declines in the Americas.

Investigation of Virulence Genes Detected in Antimicrobial-Resistance Pathogens Isolates for Five Countries across the World

A large portion of annual deaths worldwide are due to infections caused by disease-causing pathogens. These pathogens contain virulence genes, which encode mechanisms that facilitate infection and microbial survival in hosts. More recently, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes, also found in these pathogens, have become an increasingly large issue. While the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) Pathogen Detection Isolates Browser (NPDIB) database has been compiling genes involved in microbial virulence and antimicrobial resistance through isolate samples, few studies have identified the genes primarily responsible for virulence and compared them to those responsible for AMR. This study performed the first multivariate statistical analysis of the multidimensional NPDIB data to identify the major virulence genes from historical pathogen isolates for Australia, China, South Africa, UK, and US—the largely populated countries from five of the six major continents. The important virulence genes were then compared with the AMR genes to study whether there is correlation between their occurrences. Among the significant genes and pathogens associated with virulence, it was found that the genes fdeC, iha, iss, iutA, lpfA, sslE, ybtP, and ybtQ are shared amongst all five countries. The pathogens E. coli and Shigella, Salmonella enterica, and Klebsiella pneumoniae mostly contained these genes and were common among four of the five studied countries. Additionally, the trend of virulence was investigated by plotting historical occurrences of gene and pathogen frequency in the annual samples. These plots showed that the trends of E. coli and Shigella and Salmonella enterica were similar to the trends of certain virulence genes, confirming the two pathogens do indeed carry important virulence genes. While the virulence genes in the five countries are not significantly different, the US and the UK share the largest amount of important virulence genes. The plots from principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering show that the important virulence and AMR genes were not significantly correlated, with only few genes from both types of genes clustered into the same groups.

Charakterystyka występowania i stan zagrożenia Gagea minima (Liliaceae) na terenie miasta Krakowa

Gagea minima (L.) Ker Gawl. is a rare species characteristic of meso- and eutrophic deciduous forest communities of the Fagetalia sylvaticae order. It is an inconspicuous spring geophyte easily overlooked in the field, occurring in oak-hornbeam and oak-beech forests, thickets, mountain glades and meadows. The paper gives information about the historical and present occurrence of G. minima within the administrative boundaries of the city of Kraków. Eight historical (6 published and 2 found in KRA herbarium material) and 4 new localities are described. The study demonstrates that rare plant species associated with natural forest communities may still occur in remaining fragments of these biotopes even within such a heavily urbanized area as the city of Kraków.

Estimating possible bumblebee range shifts in response to climate and land cover changes

Wild bee decline has been reported worldwide. Some bumblebee species (Bombus spp.) have declined in Europe and North America, and their ranges have shrunk due to climate and land cover changes. In countries with limited historical and current occurrence data, it is often difficult to investigate bumblebee range shifts. Here we estimated the past/present distributions of six major bumblebee species in Japan with species distribution modeling using current occurrence data and past/present climate and land cover data. The differences identified between estimated past and present distributions indicate possible range shifts. The estimated ranges of B. diversus, B. hypocrita, B. ignitus, B. honshuensis, and B. beaticola shrank over the past 26 years, but that of B. ardens expanded. The lower altitudinal limits of the estimated ranges became higher as temperature increased. When focusing on the effects of land cover change, the estimated range of B. diversus slightly shrank due to an increase in forest area. Such increase in forest area may result from the abandonment of agricultural lands and the extension of the rotation time of planted coniferous forests and secondary forests. Managing old planted coniferous forests and secondary forests will be key to bumblebee conservation for adaptation to climate change.

Critical habitat identification of peripheral Sage Thrashers under climate change

AbstractThe Sage Thrasher (Oreoscoptes montanus) has been assessed as “Endangered” in Canada since 1992. Like other species with a geographic range that barely extends into Canada, Sage Thrashers are rare. Thirty‐one percent of Canada's bird species listed for recovery under the Canadian Species at Risk Act (SARA) are at the periphery of their range. A listing of “endangered” under SARA requires identification of critical habitat for the species. With anticipated climate change, recovery of species requires a more proactive intervention than relying on historical occurrence to locate suitable habitat. We synthesized 19 years of Sage Thrasher occurrence and related habitat data across the species' northern range in British Columbia (BC) and Washington (WA) to define critical habitat characteristics. We found Sage Thrashers selected less leaf litter and less grass cover in flat or low‐slope regions farther from anthropogenic or natural habitat breaks; habitat sensitive to the expected climate change impacts of fire, changes in precipitation, and invasive species establishment. By augmenting the BC data collected in the species' peripheral range with data from their core distribution in WA, we identified key habitat elements of an otherwise data‐poor species that do not breed in sufficient numbers in Canada to reliably characterize their habitat. These methods improve the identification of “critical habitat” for peripheral species like Sage Thrashers in preparation for climate‐induced range expansion northward. The framework developed demonstrates a useful template for conservation strategies for data‐limited peripheral populations in other regions. Focusing on the landscape‐level variables that indicate good habitat, and not the locations of habitat, can identify suitable future areas for conservation.

Quantitative spatial distribution model of site-specific loess landslides on the Heifangtai terrace, China

Landslide disasters are associated with severe losses on the Loess Plateau of China. Although early warning systems and susceptibility mapping have mitigated this issue to some extent, most methods are qualitative or semi-quantitative in the site-specific range. In this paper, a quantitative spatial distribution model is presented for site-specific loess landslide hazard assessment. Coupled with multi-temporal remote sensing images and high-precision UAV cloud point data, a total of 98 loess landslides that have occurred since 2004 on the Heifangtai terrace were collected to establish a landslide volume-date and retreating distance database. Eleven loess landslides are selected to construct a numerical model for parameter back analysis, and the accuracy of the simulation results is quantitatively evaluated by the centroid distance and overlapping area. Different volumes and receding distance rates of landslides are fitted to determine the relationship between cracks and potential volume, and different volumes and parameters are combined to simulate the spatial distribution of potential loess landslides. The results of this study reveal that landslide volumes mainly range between 1 × 103 and 5 × 105 m3, and the historical occurrence probability reaches 0.551. The optimal parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method to obtain a uniform distribution parameter value probability model, and the results show that the error of the estimated length within a range of 0.05 from the optimal parameter does not exceed 15%. In the selected slope slide case, farmland near the toe of the slope primarily includes exposed hazards with probabilities greater than 0.7. This work provides a useful reference for local disaster reduction and a theoretical methodology for hazard assessments.

Geo-informatics based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) through analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for forest fire risk mapping in Palamau Tiger Reserve, Jharkhand state, India

Forest fires constitute a foremost environmental calamity that distresses the sustainability of the forest. The main source of degradation of Jharkhand forests are forest fires conquered by forest species of Sal and Bamboo. Palamau Tiger Reserve in Jharkhand state, India, is becoming more susceptible to forest fire due to anthropogenic disturbance coupled with speedy upsurge in population. In this study, forest fire risk in PTR was evaluated based on various fire inducing factors, viz., forest fuel, settlements, roads, bare soil index, elevation slope and aspect. Geoinformatics based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) through method of AHP (analytic hierarchy process) used to extract forest fire risk map in five classes: Very low risk, low risk, moderate risk, high risk and very high risk. The results obtained showed that about 180 km2 (14.85%) falls under very low fire risk zone, 234 km2 (19.30%) falls in low fire risk zone, 269.73 km2 (22.16%) falls under moderate fire risk zone, 299.36 km2 (24.59%) falls under high fire risk zone and 232.56 km2 (19.10%) falls in very high fire risk zone. Forest fire risk map was validated from historical fire incidents observed through field data, MODIS and SNPP-VIIRS satellite products. The results showed that the geoinformatics based forest fire risk zones delineated through MCDA-AHP method are in good agreement with historical forest fire occurrences, henceforth may be utilised for fire planning for mitigation in forest areas.

A literature review of occurrence of Egyptian Vulture (Neophron percnopterus) resident in Africa

The Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus is a globally endangered species that is experiencing rapid population declines throughout most of its range. Conservation of Egyptian Vultures in Africa is globally important because it holds a resident population of 1 000 – 2 000 breeding pairs, harbours a significant but unknown number of Eurasian migrants during the boreal winter, and many non-adult Egyptian Vultures reared in Eurasia dwell in Africa until they mature. Africa comprises approximately half of the area of the global range of the species. Once considered common and widespread in many parts of Africa, Egyptian Vulture is now one of the vulture species that is most threatened with extinction. Egyptian Vulture is considered extinct as a breeding species in Southern Africa, and continuous population declines have been reported from most of its African range, resulting in a population reduction of perhaps 75%. Despite these declines, there is an apparent lack of systematic observations, and its current status in many African countries is unknown. Furthermore, little is known about the magnitude of the various threats and their impact on resident and wintering Egyptian Vultures. Data-deficiency hinders conservation efforts across the continent. We conducted an extensive review of published and unpublished information on the resident Egyptian Vulture populations in Africa, in an attempt to systemize the available knowledge of the species’ historic and current occurrence on a country-by country basis and identify the threats it faces. Information was found from 39 countries; no records of Egyptian Vultures were found in 16 other countries. In 12 countries where Egyptian Vultures have been observed, breeding has never been confirmed, and observations most likely refer to vagrants or wintering individuals. The Horn of Africa appears to be a relative stronghold, but there too, losses almost certainly have occurred. Poisoning, electrocution and direct killing for belief-based practices are considered the main mortality factors, and are hampering the species’ recovery. The review highlights the dire status of Egyptian Vultures in Africa, and calls for the urgent implementation of various large-scale conservation measures that will combat threats, secure the survival of the species on the continent, and make Africa safer for migrants coming from Eurasia.

Latitudinal shifts in mangrove species worldwide: evidence from historical occurrence records

Consequences of global climate change on mangrove habitats are ambiguous owing to multifaceted factors. In this study, we examined historical occurrences of ten common mangrove species and quantified the rate of latitudinal shift as a possible response to climate change. The Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) was used to gather occurrence of mangrove species. We found that nine of ten species have been shifting poleward since the 1950s. Overall mean latitudinal shift rates of mangrove species were significantly higher in Australia than in North America (1.7 and 1.3 latitude degrees per decade, respectively). In Australia, mean temperature and precipitation of localities decreased as mangrove species shifted towards drier regions at higher latitudes. However, in North America and West Africa, mean temperature of localities seems relatively stable, whereas precipitation slightly decreased. We provide new quantitative information on shifts in occurrence of common mangrove species worldwide under a changing climate. We confirm the poleward movement of mangrove species over the past 70 years and suggest that local mean temperature and precipitation can act as key drivers of mangrove range shifts. We also advise that poleward latitudinal shifts in mangrove species should be taken into account when establishing new nature reserves.

Historical occurrences of marine microalgal blooms in Indian peninsula: Probable causes and implications

The Indian marine environment supports employment for over 200 million people, including revenue of nearly $7 billion per annum. However, ecological goods and services of the shallow coast and the marine environment of the Indian peninsula are being affected by recurrent blooms of microalgae. One hundred and six published literature, starting from the first report in 1908 to 2017, were reviewed to investigate the historical occurrences of marine microalgal blooms (MMBs) around the Indian peninsula. 154 MMBs comprising 24 genera and 7 classes were reported during the study period. Noctiluca (dinophyceae) and Trichodesmium (cyanophyceae) bloom contributed 34.4% and 31.8% of total blooms. PCA revealed that high sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity were significant driving forces for Trichodesmium blooms formation, while high nutrients (NO3-N, PO4-P, and SiO4-Si) and low salinity triggered prymnesiophyceae, raphidophyceae, bacillariophyceae and most of the dinophyceae blooms. Noctiluca blooms were linked with both eutrophication and the abundance of prey organisms. HABs were generally dinophyceae dominated and were associated with mass mortality of aquatic fauna, human intoxication, paralytic, and ciguatera shellfish poisoning and even death. Increasing SST and anthropogenic influences around the Indian peninsula could increase the occurrences of MMBs (including HABs) and the number of causative taxa. Proper safety measures such as routine monitoring of phycotoxin levels in the environment and local seafood are required to be put in place in other to protect the health of the public.

Recent and historic occurrences of leopard seals (Hydrurga leptonyx) at Easter Island (Rapa Nui), Eastern Polynesia

Recent and historic occurrences of leopard seals (Hydrurga leptonyx) at Easter Island (Rapa Nui), Eastern Polynesia

Advances in the methods of detecting interspecific gene introgression and their applications

<p indent="0mm">With the proceeding of lineage sorting, gene flow gradually decays among progeny populations that are derived from splitting of a common ancestral population, and may probably continue till the phase of speciation. The differences between interspecific genome sequences or between interspecific population gene frequencies partially record these dynamics of historical and contemporary demography and occurrences, and hence inferences on these events can be attained from analyses of interspecific genomic sequences or gene frequencies. Here, we systematically discussed the methods of detecting interspecific gene introgression, including the approaches based on the differences among interspecific gene frequencies (<italic>F</italic>_{<italic>st</italic>}, LD, STRUCTURE, AFS, TreeMix) and the differences of interspecific DNA sequences (ABBA-BABA, IM, IIM, ABC). We discussed the principles and limits of these methods. Relaxations of some important assumptions underlying these methods remain open questions in the future, including the effects of recombination, the separate contribution of gamete vs. zygote dispersal to gene introgression, the interaction of mating system with gene flow, and the impediment to speciation arising from introgression of adaptive genes. Clarifications of these effects would aid in our deep understanding of the process of speciation.

Testing climate tracking of montane rodent distributions over the past century within the Great Basin ecoregion

Geographic ranges of many taxa have shifted poleward or up-slope under warming. Little is known, however, about the consistency of these dynamics among multiple mountains within a species’ geographic range. We assess climate tracking over the past century for four montane rodents, across the Ruby Mountains and Toiyabe Range within the Great Basin ecoregion of western North America. To do this, we generated species distribution models (SDMs, Maxent) in each mountain range during historical (1923–1940) and modern (2005–2015) time periods. Nineteen bioclimatic variables were derived from 800 m resolution monthly PRISM climate group data. SDMs trained on historic occurrences and climate were projected onto modern climates to estimate expected species distributions along each elevational gradient. Occurrence-based Observed Modern SDMs were compared to these Expected Modern SDMs, with congruence between the two representing the degree of climate tracking. Climate tracking predicted up-slope range expansions and contractions in the Ruby Mountains, while stasis or down-slope contractions were predicted in the Toiyabe Range. Observed Modern SDMs rarely matched climate tracking expectations, and the same species showed variable responses among mountains. Deviations are partially explained by changes in the contribution of temperature vs. precipitation over time. Additionally, optimal niche space in the Ruby Mountains shifted in elevation, but shifted in both elevation and latitude in the Toiyabe Range. Our results indicate that data from one elevational gradient may not be predictive of range dynamics elsewhere, even across similar environmental conditions and habitats, even for the same species. Conservation efforts will be better served by strategies that consider both inter- and intraspecific variation in responses to climate change over space and time.